Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

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Wall Street awaits a new record: US 500 targets 8,000.0

After testing the highs, the US 500 index is forming a corrective wave. Today’s US 500 forecast suggests a correction before further growth.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• According to J.P. Morgan estimates, around 85% of US 500 companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ forecasts
• J.P. Morgan raised its earnings estimates for US 500 companies

Fundamental analysis

Today’s US 500 forecast takes into account that US stocks are entering the week close to all-time highs after a very strong earnings season. According to J.P. Morgan estimates, around 85% of US 500 companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Against this backdrop, the bank raised its year-end 2026 target for the index to 8,000, citing earnings growth and investment in artificial intelligence.

Investment by the largest technology companies in cloud computing and artificial intelligence remains a significant source of earnings growth. J.P. Morgan raised its earnings estimate for US 500 companies to 365.00 USD per share for 2026 and to 420.00 USD for 2027.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited Tuesday at 11:25 AM by RBFX Support

[RBFX Support]

USDJPY tests 159.40 and retains upside potential towards 160.90

The USDJPY pair is recovering after the currency intervention and testing the 159.40 resistance level. A breakout above this level could open the way towards 160.90. The rate currently stands at 159.40. 

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair is recovering after the currency intervention and testing the 159.40 resistance level
• The key macroeconomic event of the day will be the release of the US CPI
• USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2026: 160.90

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis of USDJPY for 12 August 2026 shows that pressure on the yen persists. Over the past two days, the pair has risen towards 159.30–159.45 despite the recent joint currency intervention by the US and Japan. This shows that fundamental demand for the dollar currently remains stronger than the effect of the intervention.

At the same time, the domestic backdrop in Japan is gradually becoming more supportive for the yen. The summary of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting, published on 10 August, showed that several board members favour faster rate hikes due to inflation risks. 

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited yesterday at 09:31 AM by RBFX Support

[RBFX Support]

Gold (XAUUSD) on the rise: US inflation data drives gains

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,440 USD, with slowing US inflation weighing on the dollar. 

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year
• Slowing US inflation supported gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 August 2026: 4,515

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) reached 4,440 USD per ounce on Wednesday following the release of inflation data. Annual US inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%, fully matching the forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6%, which is a more important signal for the Federal Reserve.

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 40% following the CPI data, from 46% before the release. 

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited 1 hour ago by RBFX Support