HFM Posted September 22, 2022 Author Share Posted September 22, 2022 Date : 22nd September 2022. Market Update – September 22. USDIndex – extended gains to 111.51, as the FOMC boosted rates by 75 bps, but it was a much more hawkish result than that. The SEP revisions were the focus and they did not disappoint, with the dots coming in much higher than expected, steepening the near-term trajectory and concluding with a higher than previously forecast terminal rate. Chair Powell also stated the policy path the Fed actually takes will be enough to get the job done. Yields: 2-year finally climbed through 4% to close at 4.03%, the first time with that handle since October 2007. The 10-year was 5 bps richer at 3.510% after surging to 3.624% just after the Fed’s release. EUR – lingering at 0.9820. JPY – lifted to 145.44, as Kuroda’s warning on the Yen may help to limit the move higher as it leaves markets speculating about direct intervention in forex markets, although most expect Japan to try and enlist support from the US and shy away from going it alone. GBP – dipped to 1.1220. Stocks in the red with losses of -1.79% on the US100, and -1.7% on the US30 and US500. GER40 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -1.6% and -0.8% respectively. USOil – at $83.00, as supply concerns are counterbalanced by speculation that aggressive central bank action will hit the recovery. Overnight – BoJ will continue with the easy policy settings until the 2% inflation goal is met, adding that the bank won’t hesitate to ease policy settings further if needed. FOMC boosted the rate band 75 bps as expected, from 3.0% to 3.50%. This makes a total of 300 bps in rate increases to the highest since 2008. And more hikes are on the way as the policy statement reiterated that the Committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.” Additionally, the dot plot showed a median funds rate at 4.4% for the end of 2022, or about 125 bps of hikes from here, keeping another 75 bp increase on the table. The median rate is at 4.6% for the end of 2023. The vote was unanimous. This is a hawkish 75 bp hike, and it’s a higher for longer stance through 2023. Today – The SNB delivers 75 bp hike as expected. Hence focus turns to BOE announcement and US jobless claims. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+1.03%) MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive and rising. RSI 78, H1 ATR 0.471, Daily ATR 1.599. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 Date : 23rd September 2022. Market Update – September 23. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USDIndex – holds above 111. Yields: 10-year surged 18 bps to hit 3.71% but finished at 3.69%. 2-year was 9 bps higher at 4.15% before easing off. It was an 11th straight session of losses, the longest on record (data going back to 1976), according to Bloomberg. The 10-year has sagged for 13 consecutive days. The curve inverted to -54 bps early on before rising to -42 bps late in the day. EUR – broke below 0.9800. JPY – remained supported after officials stepped in and intervened on forex markets yesterday. USDJPY is at 142.20. GBP – remains in the doldrums with Cable at 1.1200. Stocks were mired in the red, at 2 year lows, with weakness in consumer discretionary and financials. Some bargain hunting lifted the indexes off of their lows and saw the US30 edge fractionally higher temporarily, but dropped at the close to finish down -0.35%. The US100 lost -1.37%, and the US500 was off -0.85%. USOil – hovering at 80-82 area. Overnight –Globally hot inflation rates have resulted in historically tough action from nearly every central bank around the world this week and over the month. Over the past 24 hours there has been a total of 250 bps in rate increases. Many emerging market central banks have been in action too, forced to keep pace with the Fed and to defend their currencies. South Africa lifted rates 75 bps, with Indonesia and the Philippines hiking 50 bps. The BoJ remained the odd man out, though it intervened in the currency market to support JPY. While the FOMC’s 75 bp hike was expected, the upward revisions in the dots to a 4.6% estimate for the terminal rate, and Chair Powell’s hawkish stance, caused much of the repricing in the markets. Additionally, Powell’s warning that there will be further pain in the housing market and that the risks for recession were on the rise exacerbated investor angst. That and the rise in yields knocked mega-tech sharply lower. Nevertheless, many doubt the FOMC will carry through with its projected policy path, while some found buying opportunities amid the downdraft in stocks. Today – Preliminary PMIs from UK, Germany, EU, and US alongside Canadian Retail Sales and Fed’s Chair Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.63%) MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal lines extend well below 0, RSI 30.62, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.01282. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 Date : 26th September 2022. Market Update – September 26 – Sterling Slumps. USDIndex – surged to 114.40 before settling at 113.64. 10-year yields jumped 5.5 bp in Australia and are currently 7.6 bp higher in the US. 2-year Treasury yields broke above 4.3% to a new 15-year high. EUR – The Eurozone and the wider EU are also facing the challenge of a new right-wing government in Italy, with Draghi’s likely successor not only the first woman, but one with far-right convictions that could bring her in conflict with Brussels and Frankfurt. EURUSD at 0.9635. JPY Japan’s Finance Minister threatened further intervention today, but the Yen was again under pressure and fell about 0.6% to the weaker side of 143.86. GBP dropped to an all-time low against the USD (at 1.033) as Friday’s mini-budget intensified concern about the fiscal situation. Speculation of an emergency response from the Bank of England, as confidence evaporated in Britain’s plan to borrow its way out of trouble, spooked investors piling into US Dollars. Currently settled at 1.0615. Stocks: Eurozone stock futures are selling off in tandem with US futures, while the UK100 future has found a footing as the slump in Sterling lends a helping hand. Across Asia the Nikkei closed -2.6% lower, the ASX declined -1.6% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 have lost -0.02% and -0.52% respectively so far. USOil plunged to $77.58 as recession concerns mount. Attention turns to OPEC+, on Oct. 5, after agreement to cut output modestly at their last meeting. Gold – drifted to $1636, with next floor at $1560. BTC – hovering around 2-month low at $18k area. Overnight & Today – China steps up fight to support the Yuan. The PBOC announced today that it will impose a 20% risk reserve requirement on banks’ foreign-exchange forward sales to clients. The currency is heading for the lower end of the allowed trading band against the Dollar, despite stronger than expected fixings since August. Officials also reduced the banks’ foreign-currency reserve requirements earlier this month to boost the Yuan, but so far, the measures haven’t really halted the slide in the currency and today’s move is also not expected to do much more than slow the slide. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURGBP (+2.19%). Topped at nearly 2-year highs at 0.9250, before correcting back to 0.9045. Intraday MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line hold positive, RSI declines to 61, H1 ATR 0.0065, Daily ATR 0.0094. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 Date : 27th September 2022. Market Update – September 27. USDIndex – at 113.40 after hitting another new 20+ year high at 114.41, as treasuries continue to rally. 10-year yield surged over 20 bps to test 3.898%, the highest since early 2010. The 2-year was over 13 bps cheaper to 4.340%, a new 15-year peak. The 30-year bond was up only 10 bps to 3.715%, an 8-year high. The curve held in the -44 bp area. EUR – lifted slightly amidst a general correction in the Dollar, at 0.9652. JPY traded at 144.20. Resistance set at 146.00. GBP dropped to an all-time low of 1.035 overnight, but bounced to 1.0800 currently. BoE’s Bailey said the Bank will not hesitate to change rates as much as needed while noting he is monitoring the financial markets. That disappointed as the markets hoped to hear something firmer and more definitive on the crash in Cable. The UK100 bounced and managed a fractional gain at the end of the day. Stocks: Stock markets started to stabilize overnight and Nikkei and ASX managed gains of 0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Wall Street gave up early gains and closed with losses of over -1.0% on the US30 and US500, with the latter at 3655, piercing the 3666 nadir from June 16, and is the weakest since December 14, 2020. The US100 slid -0.60%. USOil closed yesterday below $76 (9-month low) on indications that OPEC+ may enact output cuts to avoid a further collapse in prices. Gold – drifted to $1621 outside daily BB. BTC – higher at $20,162. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%). Retesting 50-hour SMA at 0.5715, Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line hold negative but close to 0, RSI rise to 57, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.00878. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yxsaad Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Is there any way I can get these market updates directly to my email? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 28, 2022 Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 Date : 28th September 2022. Market Update – September 28 – Renewed Selling. USDIndex – breaks range and tops at 114.63. Economic data on confidence, durables, home sales, and the Richmond Fed index were stronger than expected, while home prices declined and broke a long string of gains. Yields: A tweet from DoubleLine Capital’s Gundlach that he was buying Treasuries provided some support along with dip-buying and safe haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield ended over 5 bps higher, testing 3.99% after having dropped over 10 bps to a low of 3.797%. GBP in a renewed selling, UK bonds sold off sharply, yields on US bonds higher and US stocks to the lowest level since 2020. 10-year gilt on Tuesday rose 26% to hit a 14-year high of 4.5% after the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill said the loosening of fiscal policy announced last week would “require a significant monetary response”. Kwarteng met the heads of companies including Aviva, Legal & General, Royal London, BlackRock, Schroders and Fidelity, to reassure them that his economic strategy would work after days of turmoil in financial markets. Later he spoke to Conservative MPs to calm fears that the government had lost control of the economic situation. IMF criticize Britain’s new economic strategy, saying the proposals are likely to increase inequality. Moody’s warned that unfunded tax cuts were credit negative. EUR – fresh low at 0.9540. JPY traded at 144.70. Stocks: closed mixed with the US100 managing a 0.25% gain, while the US30 declined -0.42%, with the US500 sliding -0.2% to 3647. USOil steady at $77. The energy crisis in Europe intensified as European authorities investigated what Germany, Denmark and Sweden said were attacks which had caused major leaks into the Baltic Sea from two Russian gas pipelines. Gold – drifted to $1619.97. BTC – slide back to $18K area, as stocks fell deeper into a bear market. Ether was also down by less than 1%. – “crypto winter”? Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.77%) extends outside daily BB. Intraday fast MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line are negative, RSI at 23, H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 1.166. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 Date : 29th September 2022. Market Update – September 29 – Sterling & Stocks drift as BoE boost fades. USDIndex – tumbled at 112.43 after the BoE’s actions ( worst session in 2.5 years). Today it found some ground edging towards 113.35, buoyed by renewed pressure on the pound. Yields: UBoE’s announcement that it will buy up to GBP 5 bln a day for 13 days in a bid to stabilise markets bruised by the government’s mini-budget may have helped Gilts and wider bond markets to recover somewhat yesterday, but while Australia and New Zealand bonds rallied in catch up trade, yields are already rising again in Europe and the US. Record surge in Gilts where the 30-year rate plunged an historic 105 bps to 3.913%, unwinding the better than 130 bp selloff to a 5.135% high. The 10-year Gilt crashed 50 bps, the most since 1992, to 3.999%. While intervention supported Gilts, Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid global investor jitters, bargain hunting, a solid 7-year auction, and a month-end bid. GBP remains volatile as BoE presses panic button. Sterling rallied on the BoE’s initial announcement of bond purchases, but Cable has since settled at 1.08 area as the rapid switch from scheduled asset sales to “temporary” bond purchases has not really helped to instill confidence in the currency. EUR – returned to 0.9665. JPY traded at 144.70. Stocks: The 1.96% bounce to 3718 in the US500 snapped a six-day string of losses, the worst since February 2020, as the index climbed off of Tuesday’s 3647, a new 2022 low. Strength was broadbased with energy climbing over 4%. The US100 jumped 2.05% to 11,051, and the US30 rose 1.88% to 29,683. USOil up to $81. Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger USD. China’s travel during the upcoming week-long national holiday is set to hit the lowest level in years as Beijing’s persistent zero-COVID rules prompt people to stay at home and economic woes dampen spending. Citi economists have lowered their China GDP forecast from 5% year-on-year growth to 4.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022. Gold – after some buying retreats to $1647. BTC – at 19375. Today: German Inflation, ECB’s Panetta, de Guindos, Elderson and Lane speech, US GDP and Jobless claims. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.05%) back to 0.5655. Intraday fast MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line are turnign to 0, RSI at 2342, H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.00953. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Date : 30th September 2022. Market Update – September 30 – Quarter End. USDIndex – has dropped back to 112.00, as bonds and stocks remained very jittery into quarter end, month end and week end. The US Q2 chain price indexes accelerated to 9.0% for the headline, and 4.7% for the core. Credibility issues are keeping also buyers sidelined as the central banks are seen having waited too long to address rising price pressures, with worries now that they are overdoing rate hikes and will push the world into recession. Yields: The German 10-year rate is down -3.2 bp in early trade, the US rate -4.1 bp. UK PM Liz Truss will stick to her plan to reignite economic growth, breaking her silence after nearly a week of financial market chaos. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – set out $196 billion “defensive shield”, including a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel, to protect companies and households from the impact of soaring energy prices. That came after the 10.9% German Inflation figure for September. Stocks were headed for their worst month! Nikkei still closed with a loss of -1.8%, the ASX was down -1.2% by end of trade while CSI 300 and Hang Seng are down -0.3% and up 0.1% respectively. However, markets seem to be finding a footing and European and US futures are mostly managing slight gains. Japan’s factories ramped up output in August and China’s factory activity returned to growth this month, data showed. GBP – has lifted above 1.10 EUR – is at 0.98. JPY – traded at 144.57. USOil – steady at $81. Gold – rebounded to $1670. BTC – steady at 19410 VIX index has been on the rise and hit 33.46 earlier, just shy of the 34.75 May high, though has yet to really test the 40 area last seen in late 2020. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA100 back to 11333. Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line are turning higher but still in negative area, RSI at 54.76, H1 ATR 58.36, Daily ATR 354.98. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broforex51 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 CHFJPY today as you see here, the price is going bearish but the big trend is still bullish, so it is good if you follow the trend, you can open buy position when the price breaks resistance area at 146.99 with potential target up to next resistance at 148.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 Date : 3rd October 2022. Market Update – October 3 – New Week, Month & Quarter. USDIndex – Holds Friday’s range at 111.80. Dollar remains in demand following a weak 3rd quarter, HOT CORE CPE inflation on Friday and an emergency FOMC meeting behind closed doors today. Asian stock markets struggle in key Holiday week, risk appetite remains fragile ahead of more rate hikes and US jobs on Friday. The JPY underperforms in the Asian session. EUR – Trades at 0.9820 now, capped by an 8-day high at 0.9900 but off last weeks 0.9550 low. Alternative gas supplies began to flow over weekend for Greece, Bulgaria & Poland. JPY – Remains weighed as 145.00 is tested once more. Fin. Min. Suzuki – Japan stands ready for “decisive” steps in the foreign exchange market if excessive Yen moves persist. GBP – Continued to recover following mini-budget inspired collapse last week. Capped at 1.1200 so far today ahead of Fin Min Kwarteng’s speech. Rumours swirl of U-turns on tax cuts. Stocks US stocks moved lower again on Friday remain pressured. Third consecutive Quarterly fall, largest percentage fall for Q3 in the S&P500 in 20 years, 3rd consecutive week lower and 2nd consecutive month lower. The first 9-months of 2022 has been the worst since 2008. APPL, MSFT led tech lower on Friday, biggest losers Nike -12.8% & Carnival -23.3% both following warnings regarding margins due to inflation. Q3 Earnings now expected to be +4.5% down from 11.1% on July 1. USOil rallied over 3% to test $82.00 after weekend reports of OPEC+ cutting production “up to 1.5 million barrels per day”. Gold – holds at $1665 but remains capped at $1675. BTC – rejected $20.0k on Friday and trades at $19.2k now. Today EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng. Week Ahead – US Services, RBA & RBNZ Rate decisions, ADP & CAD & US (NFP) Jobs. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.82%) Rallied from Friday’s collapse from 83.00 to 81.00, to test 82.00 today. MAs now aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 52.05 & rising, H1 ATR 0.253, Daily ATR 1.233. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Date : 4th October 2022. Market Update – October 4 – Stocks Bounce, Yields Fall, RBA Springs a Surprise. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USDIndex – Descends into 111.50, support area, and under 9-day EMA for first time since September 19. Yields slipped significantly (US 10yr @3.65%) following reverse from UK Chancellor tax cut plan lifting UK GILTS and wider sentiment. ISM Manu. data hit a 2.5 year low but at 50.9 remains in expansion mode. Oil & Oil Stocks rallied on OPEC production cut rumours and TSLA dropped -8.6% on delivery misses and with no immediate solution. RBA surprised with a 25bp hike vs. an expected 50 bp interest rate hike. AUD & JPY underperform overnight. EUR – Trades at 0.9840 now testing Friday high but capped by a 9-day high at 0.9900. JPY – Remains weighed. 145.00 was breached but only for an hour yesterday, despite hawkish comments from Japanese officials – trades at 144.80 now. GBP – UK government confirmed it will scrap plans to abolish 45% top tax rate in humiliating U-turn. Sterling continued to rally, Cable and GBPJPY breached 20-Day MA. Cable now trades at key resistance 1.1350. Stocks – US stocks, ripe for a bounce at the beginning of the Quarter, leapt over 2%. US500 +92.81 (+2.59%) 3678 Energy stocks led with XOM & CVX (+5%) and APPL & MSFT, (+3%),which led tech lower on Friday, led the rally on Monday. TSLA sank -8.6% pulling TWTR -3.10% & RIVAN -3% lower. US500.F 3731 now. USOil rallied over 6% to $84.35 highs after weekend reports of OPEC+ cutting production “up to 1.5 million barrels per day”. Trades at $84.00 now. Gold – spiked higher from $1665 over the key $1700 and trades at $1703 now. BTC – rallied from sub $19.0k yesterday to $19.7k now. Today – US Factory Orders and Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Logan, Daly, Mester & Jefferson, ECB’s Lagarde. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.56%) Rallied from Thursday’s collapse to 140.00 to test 143.00 zone today. MAs now aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 67.44 & rising, H1 ATR 0.243, Daily ATR 1.706. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Date : 5th October 2022. Market Update – October 5 – Stocks Leap 3%, USD & Yields Sink. USDIndex – Sank and descended into 110.00 as USD and Yields slipped (US 10yr @3.61%). JOLTS missed significantly (10.05m vs 11.24 last time), adding to hopes Fed may be on the cusp of moderating and possibly even ending rate hikes in coming months (the Fed Pivot). Stocks charged higher (NASDAQ+3.34%). The 5.7% start to Q4 2022 after two days is the best start to a new quarter since Q2 1938 (+8.7%). RBNZ confirmed expectations with a 50bp interest rate hike. NZD rallied. MUSK said TWTR (+22.4%) deal was back on at original $54.20 per share. EUR – A weak USD saw EUR storm through 0.9900 and rally to Parity at 1.0000. Trades at 0.9967 now. JPY – Reversed from 145.00 to as low as 143.60 trades at 144.00 now. GBP – Sterling continued to rally, despite more public disagreements within Government. Cable stalled short of 1.1500 at 1.1490. Cable now trades at 1.1460. Stocks – US stocks, leapt again, over 3%. US500 +112.50 (+3.06%) 3790. All sectors rallied significantly. Asian markets ahead, European futures flat ahead of open. USOil rallied again to $86.60 (9% in 2-days) ahead of OPEC+ meetings today with production cuts now “up to 2.0 million barrels per day”. Gold – spiked higher again holding the key $1700 and trades at $1725 now. BTC – rallied over the key $20k yesterday to $20.2k now. Today – EZ, UK & US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & UK PM Truss. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.81%) Rallied from Monday’s low at 0.5500 to 0.5696 yesterday, remains resistance today. MAs now aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 56.44 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00216, Daily ATR 0.84006. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 Date : 6th October 2022. Market Update – October 6 – USD & Stocks Flat, Oil Rallies. USDIndex – Rallied from a test of 110.00 peaking at 111.50 following weak Services PMI data in UK & Europe, and a beat for US data; ADP (208k vs 200k) and ISM Services PMI (56.7 vs 56). Closed lower and trades under 111.00 now at 110.83. Fed’s Mary Daly says the Fed is resolute in raising rates to curb inflation and that market anticipation of interest-rate cuts next year is misplaced. Stocks closed flat, yields dipped again and Oil rallied following OPEC+ announcement. AUD Trade slipped and German Factory Orders tanked (-2.4% vs. -0.8%). Asian & European stocks are mixed following the stall on Wall St. EUR – A brief test of Parity at 1.0000, reversed all the way to 0.9833 before USD recovered and the pair trades at 0.9915 now. JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 143.60 and trades at 144.50 now. GBP Sterling remains volatile with the new PM under pressure. 260+ pip range yesterday, from 1.1495 to 1.1226. Cable trades at 1.1325 now. Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day but closed flat (-0.2%), US500 -7.65 at 3783. TWTR -1.35%, TSLA -3.46% XOM +4.04%. USOil rallied again to $88.40 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts, provoking major rebuke from the US. Gold – declined from initial test of $1725 yesterday before testing $1700 support and now back to $1725 again. BTC – dipped below the key $20k yesterday ,but now back to $20.2k. Today – EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester and BOC’s Macklem. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.84%) Rallied from yesterday’s low at 0.5660 to 0.5800 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00181, Daily ATR 0.01096. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 7, 2022 Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 Date : 7th October 2022. Market Update – October 7 – NFP Day – USD Remains on the Front Foot. USDIndex – Rallied again yesterday and trades over 112.00 (up 1.85% in 2-days) currently. The chorus of Fedspeak (Cook, Evans, Kashkari, Waller & Mester) all pushed the Hawkish tone. BOC’s Macklem also very Hawkish too. Weekly Claims rose to 219k from 190K but remain historically low. Fed Funds Futures now have an 85.5% chance of 75bp rate hike at Nov. 2 FOMC meeting. Stocks closed -1%, Yields rallied (10-yr 3.83% from 3.55% earlier in the week). Oil rallied again to $89.00, Gold slipped but holds $1700 and BTC is under $20K again. Japan published more mixed data, (Earnings and Leading Indicators up, Household Spending down). German Import Prices rose significantly, Retail Sales & Ind. Production missed. Asian & European stocks are lower following a weak Wall St. Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat biggest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis and that the US is reviewing ‘response options’ on Saudi relations after OPEC+. EUR – A brief break of 0.9900, reversed all the way to 0.9786 now. ECB remains pressured to take more decisive action as Energy crisis swirls and fractures with EU persist, despite the “Prague” accord, with Putin increasingly cornered. JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 144.50 to once again test the key 145.00 now. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September, as the BOJ tried to defend the Yen. GBP Sterling sank another 240+ pips yesterday and is under pressure along with new PM Truss. From over 1.1350 to 1.1110 lows yesterday, Cable trades at 1.1340 now. Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day and close down (-1.01%), US500 -38.00 at 3744. TWTR -3.72%, TSLA -1.11% (Musk lawsuit dropped & deal to close 28/10, also said Pepsi will get first semi trucks in December). LEVI -3.92% (ahead of weak Earnings; -6.34% after hours). US FUTS at 3740. USOil rallied again to $89.00 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts this week, provoking major rebuke from the US. Gold – declined from another test of $1725 yesterday before again moving back to $1710. BTC – dipped below the key $20k again today having tested $20.2k yesterday. Trades at 19.8k now. Today – US & Canadian Jobs reports, BOE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, & Bostic. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.25%) Continued to decline from 6-day high at 165.500 on Wednesday to test 161.00 yesterday and trades at 161.35 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling RSI 35.28 & falling, H1 ATR 0.359, Daily ATR 3.498. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 10, 2022 Author Share Posted October 10, 2022 Date : 10th October 2022. Market Update – October 10 – Dollar Remains Bid, Stocks Weighed. USDIndex – Rallied again following strong NFP data (263k vs 250k & Unemployment falling to 3.5% from 3.7%) on Friday and expectations of no FED pivot any time soon and unified central bank action. Trades at 112.80. Yields are firmer and stocks on the back foot. US CPI key this week. Putin reaction to Bridge attack potentially Nuclear, Xi Ping looks to cement more power for another 10 years and NK have simulated attacks on SK – all under-mining sentiment. US moves to curb US chip technology to China hits Chinese hi-tech companies. Asian (thin markets due to holidays and weak Chinese Service PMI data 49.3 vs 55.0) & European stocks are lower following the very weak close (NASDAQ -3.8% ) on Wall St. EUR – closed Friday at 0.9730, and trades at 0.9720 now. JPY – rallied Friday and again today spiked to 145.60 and holds over the key 145.00 now. Signs of more BOJ intervention. GBP – sterling sank again too, Cable back to 1.1075 with the pressure on new PM Truss showing no signs of waning. Stocks – US stocks, were extremely heavy on Friday and closed down –2.11% to -3.8%. US500 -105.00 at 3639. AMD -13.87%, TSLA -6.32%, NVDA -8.03%. US FUTS at 3635. USOil rallied again to $93.00 and trades at $92.20 now. Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weigh, from $1710 on Friday ahead of NFP to $1685 now. BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank from 20k pivot on Friday to trade at 19.3k now. Today – EZ Sentix Index, Speeches from Fed’s Evans & Brainard, ECB’s Lane, US Columbus Day (Treasury markets closed). Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.64%) Continued to rally from Friday’s low at 1.7350 to test 1.7500 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00347, Daily ATR 0.03100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 Date : 11th October 2022. Market Update – October 11 – Risk Off – Gilts lead Yields & USD Higher, Stocks, Gold & Oil Sink. USDIndex – Rallied again (113.40) as US moves to curb US chip technology to China hit Chinese hi-tech companies. UK GILTS lead US Yields higher. BOE – Widening the scope of its daily Gilt buying operations from 11-14 October. Cable tests 1.1000. Stocks remain on the back foot (-1%). Asian markets hit by US Chip move (TSMC -8.33% & $240b wiped off wider market value) & European FUTS lower. PUTIN reacts to bridge attack with attacks on 13 Ukraine cities further undermining confidence. RISK OFF Tuesday. EUR – trades as low as 0.9670, today under pressure from safe haven bid for USD. JPY – rallied as high as 145.85 today and the “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22. GBP – Sterling sank again too as UK Gilts rallied, Cable back to 1.0996 with the pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning. Stocks – US stocks, were heavy again on Monday and closed down -1.04% to -0.32%. US500 -27.7 at 3612. AMD -1.08%, Ford -6.89%, NVDA -3.36%. US FUTS tested the key 3600 level on Monday and trades at 3613 now. USOil – declined into $90.00 from $93.00 highs as USD accrued and sentiment waned. Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weighed, October lows of $1661 have been tested today. BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank under $19k to trade at $18.9k. Today – UK JOBS beat expectations, US IBD/TIPP, Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Harker & Mester, BOE’s Bailey & Cunliffe, SNB’s Jordan, RBA’s Ellis, Astana Summit Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.54%) Continued to decline as risk off took hold. Down to test 0.6250 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 36.52 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00149, Daily ATR 0.01109. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Date : 12th October 2022. Market Update – October 12 – London still the centre of the storm. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USDIndex – Dipped to 112.50 yesterday before reversing to 113.40, & 113.00 now. The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as BOE’s Bailey reiterated that the BOE “will be out of the market by the end of the week”. However FT report this morning that the BOE signalled privately to bankers it may extend Bond-Buying, after the weekend. Sterling pressured and Gilts remain fragile. US Stocks (NASDAQ -1.10%) closed down again, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.04%) & European FUTS lower. Biden claims there will be no US recession, doubts Putin will use the nuclear option and that there needs to be a re-evaluation of Saudi relationship. EUR – trades over 0.9700 at 0.9725 from 0.9670 lows and 0.9770 highs yesterday. JPY – rallied through 146.00 today beyond “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22. Traded to 146.38 today. GBP – Sterling rallied and then reversed on Bailey comments to 1.0923 a new 10-day low, but retook 1.1000 following rally on FT article. Pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning, more possible political U-turns. Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Tuesday and closed down US500 -0.65%, -27.7 and breaking 3600 at 3588. UBER -10.42%, LYFT -12.02%, AMGN +5.72%. US FUTS trades at 3628 now. USOil – declined into $88.40, back to $89.65 & capped at $90.00. Polish pipeline operator PERN says leak detected in Druzba oil pipeline. Gold – recovered from $1661-$1665 support zone to $1675 now but remains pressured. BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now. Today – UK GDP (missed -0.3% vs. 0.1%) EZ IP, US PPI Final Demand, FOMC Minutes, G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting, Astana Summit, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, Pill & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kashkari, Barr & Bowman Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) rallied from 80.70 lows yesterday to 82.00 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 64.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.236, Daily ATR 1.397. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 Date : 13th October 2022. Market Update – October 13 – FOMC Minutes Remain Hawkish – CPI Today. USDIndex – Held 113.00 yesterday and again tested 113.44. Yields cooled from recent highs. (US 10yr at 3.902%). US PPI was hotter than expected (0.4% vs 0.2% & -0.1% prior). FOMC Mins. less Hawkish than many anticipated but far from indicating a pivot anytime soon. “Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices.” and “emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat and the BOE’s Bond-Buying, beyond Friday is still being questioned despite BOE denials. Sterling recovered yesterday but Gilts remain very fragile. US Stocks closed flat, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.13%) & European FUTS also flat. EUR – rotates through 0.9700, up from 0.9670 lows but unable to hold over 0.9720. JPY – rallied through 146.00 to new 24-year highs yesterday within a few pips of 147.00. 146.85 now. GBP – Sterling rallied from a new 11-day low at 1.0923 over 1.1000 to 1.1075. Immense pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts or face a major rebellion. Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Wednesday and closed down US500 -033%, -11.81 at 3577. MRNA +8.28%, PEPSI +4.18%, VLO +5.02%. US500 FUTS trades at 3586 now. USOil – declined again on global recession worries into $86.25, back to $87.15 now. Gold – remained range bound between $1665 support zone and $1675. Trades at $1668 now but remains pressured. BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now. Today – German HICP confirmed at record 10.9% US CPI, US DoE, IEA OMR, Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & BOE’s Mann. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.30%) rallied from sub 160.00 lows yesterday to 163.25 highs today, before declining into 162.50. MAs declining now, MACD histogram & signal line positive but starting to decline, RSI 54.40 & declining, H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 3.201. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 Date : 14th October 2022. Market Update – October 14 – Wild, Wild Swings following US CPI, Risks in London Rise. USDIndex – Spiked to 113.80 following hot reading for CORE CPI and then reversed sharply into 112.20 as Stocks staged a record reversal (from -3% to +over 2%) on short covering, technical floors being tested and ? perhaps assumptions that the top is finally in for inflation (Headline fell for 3rd consecutive month). Yields also whipsawed, with at one point, all major maturities above 4%. (US 10yr closed 3.902% & the 2/10 year rate inversion {a sign of recession} sits at 51bp). 75 bp fro Nov 2 fully priced in, and a 71% chance of a further 75bp in December. (This will take hikes since March to 450 bp). The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as Chancellor Kwarteng returns from the IMF meetings a day early (last person to do that was the Greek Fin. Min. in 2011 and many are predicting a similar outcome both politically and economically). The BOE’s Bond-Buying programme ends today, uncertainty swirls as tax U-turns become priced in. Sterling rallied and then rallied again, but Gilts remain fragile. Asian markets follow Wall Street higher (Nikkei +3.25% Hang Seng +2.64%) & European FUTS also higher. EUR – rotated through 0.9700, down to 0.9632 before rallying to 0.9800. JPY – rallied to new 32-year (1990) highs at 147.67 and with no signs of BOJ action! Suzuki and Kishida remain committed to accommodative policy. Trades at 147.35 now. GBP – Sterling rallied from .1.1075 to over 1.1300 to 1.1375. Immense pressure on PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts as successors are rumoured and the Tories are 30% behind in opinion polls. Stocks – Wall Street dove on the data given the jump in rates and as the market priced in greater risk for a hard landing. The NASDAQ plunged over -3.0%, with the S&P500 over -2.25% lower, and the Dow down almost -1.90% before turning around to end with solid gains. The Dow rallied to close with a 2.83% gain, a 1400 point round-trip, while the S&P 500 was up over 3% before ending with a 2.60% gain. US500 3577. BLK (assets tumbled but earnings beat)+6.58%, BAC +6.13%, NFLX +5.27%, APPL +3.36%. US500 FUTS trades at 3706 now. USOil – declined again on the CPI data & global recession worries into $85.51, before reversing sharply to $89.50 as USD weakened and risk aversion dipped. Gold – plunged to $1642 before recovering to trade at $1668 now but remains pressured. BTC – plummeted to $17.9K yesterday, trades at $19.8k now. Today – US Retail Sales, US University of Michigan Prelim Survey, Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, Fed’s George, Cook & Waller. Earnings from Wall Street banks JPM, Citi, MS Wells Fargo. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%) rallied from sub 81.20 lows yesterday to 83.75 highs today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 3.201. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 Date : 17th October 2022. Market Update – October 17 – Tug-of-war! USDIndex – steady at 112.90 following US inflation which reinforced bets of a 90.9% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, and a 9.1% chance of a 100 bp increase in the Fed’s next meeting. Yields down, 10-year Treasury rate is down -4.1 bp at 3.977% and the German Bund future has corrected -6.3 bp, after the JGB rate corrected -0.3 bp to 0.24%. GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.1300 on calls for PM Truss to resign and ahead of UK Chancellor announcement for tax and spending measures, 2 weeks earlier than scheduled, as he tries to stem a loss of confidence in the government’s fiscal plans. Truss said on Friday that corporation tax will rise to 25% from April 2023 instead of remaining it at 19% as part of her government’s initial “mini-budget”. Medium-term fiscal plan remains as scheduled on Oct. 31. Daily Mail reported that: “British lawmakers will try to oust Truss this week despite Downing Street’s warning that it could trigger a general election.” EUR – slightly up to 0.9735. JPY – pinned to 32-year (1990) highs at 148.79 as markets await signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. Stocks – Stock markets have remained under pressure overnight, after a weak close on Wall Street Friday, after inflation concerns were rekindled by a US survey showing the first rise in inflation expectations in a while. Still, US futures are higher and with a nearly 1% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way. China and Hong Kong stocks fell after Chinese President Xi talked up national security, while dashing hopes of any changes in growth-hitting zero-COVID policies and property sector curbs. Xi called for accelerating the building of a world-class military, while touting the fight against COVID-19 as he kicked off the Communist Party Congress on Sunday by focusing on security and reiterating policy priorities. Greater emphasis on national security comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The biggest applause came when Xi restated opposition to Taiwan independence. USOil – holds support at $85. Gold – $1650. BTC – down for the day to $19214. Today – US Monthly Budget, BOC Outlook Survey. All eyes remain on UK though and the speech of Chancellor Hunt. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (+0.23%) rallied at EU open to 6907 but pulled back asap. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line hold below 0, RSI 46 & falling, H1 ATR 19.84, Daily ATR 142.87. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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