HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date : 1st March 2023.

Market Update – March 1 – USD Holds at highs, PMI’s in Focus.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD held at recent highs to close the month, stocks were lower, weighed by weak US data and inflation in Europe surprisingly spiked in France and Spain. Overnight: Chinese PMI data showed manufacturing growing the fastest in 10-years and Services surging (56.3). Australian CPI sank significantly to 7.4% but GDP missed (0.5% vs 0.8%) pulling down the AUD. Upbeat Chinese data has lifted European Futures. Gold and Oil both had strong closes to a weak month.
 

• FX – USD Index tested back to 105.00 before declining to 104.65 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, from 1.0570 & capped by 1.0620 today. JPY topped at 136.70 yesterday tested below 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling enthusiasm stalled at 1.2145 before declining to test the key 1.2000 zone again. Back to 1.2070 now.
• Stocks – The US markets slipped again (-0.10% to -0.71%). Movers – #NVAX +6.8% & META +3.19%. GS -3.19% after problems in their consumer unit. #TSLA day today. US500 –0.30% (-12.90) 3970, US500 FUTS 3983 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.60 yesterday, dipped a $1.10 and are back to $77.60 now. Gold – tested below the support level at $1805 yesterday before a significant last day of the month rally to $1830. Trades at $1835 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k support yesterday and holds $23.7k now.

Today – EZ/UK/US Final PMIs, German CPI (Prelim.), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Kashkari.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.80%). Rallied from 83.75 yesterday to 84.85 now, with next resistance at 85.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.30 & in the OB zone, H1 ATR 0.158, Daily ATR 0.00637.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 2 – ISM Price Hikes & Higher Yields dent sentiment.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues to hold onto recent gains despite US10yr Yields hitting to a four-month top of 4.018% and ISM Manu. prices spiking to 51.3, a five-month high, from 44.5 in January. US Stocks closed lower and this has rippled into Asian markets. TSLA day disappointed with no new vehicle announcements, #TSLA shares fell -5.6% after hours. Kashkari was as Hawkish as ever & Fed Fund Futures now have a 50 bp hike at 33% & a terminal rate in the 5.50%-5.75% range. Overnight: Japanese Capital Spending fell less than anticipated and Consumer Confidence failed to meet expectations but remains at 5-month highs too. Australian building approvals collapsed -27.6% from +15.3%.
 

• FX – USD Index tested back to 104.00 before recovering to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but rejected an advance to 1.0700, holds at 1.0635 today. JPY is back to Tuesday’s top at 136.80 from a test below 135.50. Sterling enthusiasm continued to evaporate breaching and breaking the key 1.2000 zone again today, trading at 1.1970 now.
• Stocks – The US markets slipped again (+0.02% to -0.66%). Movers – #NVAX -25.92%, CAT +3.81% & HAL -3.53%. US500 –0.47% (-18.76) 3951, US500 FUTS lower again at 3928 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.70 yesterday and again today before dipping to $77.35 now. Gold – rallied again yesterday to $1844 but trades at $1830 support now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested to $24k resistance yesterday and holds $23.3k now.

Today – EZ CPI (Flash) & Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Japanese CPI, BoE DMP & ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Kashkari, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%). Rallied from 135.50 yesterday to 136.80 now, as US Yields rally and JPY weakens, next resistance at 137.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 69.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.168, Daily ATR 1.210.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 3rd March 2023.

Market Update – USD & Yields Dip from Highs & Stocks Recover.


The USD slipped from recent highs but holds at 104.75. Yields cooled, but the 2/10 yr yield curve remains inverted by 83 bp as the 2-year yield eyed 5% yesterday. US Stocks closed positive (DOW +1.05%) which has helped lift Asian markets (Nikkei +1.56%) along with a positive spin on the new Chinese economic targets that are due to be announced on Sunday. Sentiment also got a lift from “Dovish” Fedspeak from Bostic who prefers “slow & steady” 25 bp rate hikes to limit recession risks. Overnight: NAB CEO says 3 more RBA rate hikes are possible and Kashkari & Waller continued to press the Hawkish stance. Japanese Unemployment declined to 2.4% and Tokyo area CPI slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%. Chinese Services PMI beat significantly at 55.00 from 52.9 last time.
 

• FX – USDIndex rallied to over 105.00 to 105.13, but has cooled to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but declined yesterday to 1.0575 following a hot EZ CPI reading and US Claims. JPY breached 137.00 but has declined to 136.40 now and flat for the week so far. Sterling was a weak performer yesterday declining into Monday’s low at 1.1925 and remains below the key 1.2000 trading at 1.1980 now.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.73% to +1.05%). Movers – #SI -57.72%, TSLA –5.85% & CRM +11.50%. US500 +0.76% (+29.96) 3981, US500 FUTS lower at 3975 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $78.50 yesterday and holds at $78.00 now, and up over 3.00 for the week. Gold – rallied again yesterday from $1830 support and trades at $1843 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked overnight by as much as -6% as Coinbase (-1.5%) declined payments to or from Silvergate Capital (-57.72%). Tested under $22k today to $21.85k before recovering to $22.3k now.

Today – EZ/UK/US Composite & Services PMIs, US ISM Services, Speeches from Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman, Barkin & ECB’s de Guindos.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.36%). Rallied from a test into the 0.6700 zone yesterday to 0.6760 now. Wednesday’s 0.6780 high is next key resistance. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 59.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00112, Daily ATR 0.00752.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th March 2023.

Market Update – Risk Apettite ahead of a massive week!


China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday, and is poised to implement the biggest government shake-up in a decade. Disappointing the markets! USD under pressure. Yields decline and Stocks extend rally today after Friday’s strong close. Stronger than expected data releases have revived tightening speculation and kept a lid on local stocks.

Rate–sensitive tech shares outperformed in Japan, just like in the US, after comments from Richardmond Fed President Thomas Barkin that inflation is “likely past peak,” which helped to rein in long-term Treasury yields from multi-month highs. A day earlier, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic hinted that a peak in rates may come in summer.


 

• USD under pressure retested 104.34 low. EUR extends to 1.0640, for a 2nd day in a row. JPY dipped 135.30 but has inclined to 135.70 now. Sterling jumped to 1.2040 but failed to exit February’s range.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied amid overtightening comments from FED officials. Movers – US500 +0.76% 4054, US100 +0.76% 12341, US30 +0.76% 33408, GER40 up 0.2%, UK100 futures are flat.

 

• Commodities – USOil – holds gains above $78.80 from EIA small supply gain seen last week and as markets weigh prospects for China demand after latest economic data. Gold – had its best week since mid-January amid soft USD. Currently at $1858.20.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked on Friday to 21,858 amid Silvergate Failure (Silvergate Halts Crypto Payments After Suffering $1 Billion Loss). Currently recovering above $22k.

Today – Eurozone January retail sales, February S&P Global PMIs for Germany, France and Eurozone, Canadian Ivey PMI and US Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.49%). Dipped to 1.2128 on EU open. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram turn negative & signal line is at 0, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00116, Daily ATR 0.00776.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th March 2023.

Market Update – Buoyed investor sentiment ahead of Powell.


USD under pressure, Yields slightly higher buoyed by investor sentiment which also boosted Stocks after they sagged through US session. (Reuters) – China’s exports & imports dropping for January-February pointed to continued weakness in demand for the country’s products & foreign demand, backing government concerns that a global slowdown will be felt at home. RBA raised rates to 3.60% from 3.35% the highest in more than a decade but suggested it might be nearly done tightening as consumer spending was slowing and there was less risk of a wages-driven inflation blow-out. The bid fell out of the markets as trading turned more cautious post weak trade data which weighed on Chinese stocks and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.
 

• Futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21 to 22 meeting and a 24% likelihood of a 50 bp increase.
• USD holds at 10-day low area at 104.12 now. Euro retests 1.07, Sterling jumped to 1.2062 above 20-DMA. Aussie at a more than 2-month low of 0.6690.
• Stocks – JPN225 +0.25% at 28,309 – US500 at 4058, US100 +1% at 12348, US30 +0.12% 33487.META will cut thousands of jobs as soon as this week in a fresh round of layoffs.

 

• Commodities – USOil – jumped to $80.93. China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3% in the first two months of 2023 from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, but analysts pointed to accelerating imports in February as a sign that fuel demand was rebounding after Beijing scrapped COVID-19 controls. Gold – slightly higher at $1850.98.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – steady at $22k.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony first to the Senate Banking Committee, and then to the House Finance Committee tomorrow. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish stance of higher for longer rates.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.50%). Rallied to 1.7982. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend higher, RSI 75 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00271, Daily ATR 0.01426.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th March 2023.

Market Update – Fed is prepared to “speed up”.


USD rallied to 105.85 during Powell’s hawkish speech and holds above 105.57 since then. Yields rose and stock markets remain under pressure. The Nikkei was a notable exception overnight, with a 0.5% gain. Curves are inverting further in Germany and the US as concern that overly aggressive central bank action will hurt the recovery returns. The curve inverted to -104 bps, the most since 1981, from -93 bps.

 A more hawkish than expected stance from Fed Chair Powell saw Treasury yields spike and Wall Street sink, while the dollar firmed. Although Powell did not really say anything new as he reiterated the “higher for longer” policy mantra, he did open the door for a return to a more aggressive 50 bp rate hike and the markets jumped through it. BlackRock sees ‘reasonable chance’ of Fed raising rates to 6%.
 

• USD at 105.66 now. Euro drifted to 1.0544, Sterling broke 4-month support to 1.1861, below 20-WMA. Yen spiked to 137.54 on US Dollar strength.
• Stocks – US500 tumbled 1.53% to close under the 4000 mark. The US100 slid -1.25%. The US30 dropped -1.72% with losses accelerating after the break below 33,000.

 

• Commodities – USOil – massive sell off from $80.95 to $77.13 on fears that more aggressive US interest rate hikes would hit demand. API shows US crude stocks fall helped oil to find a floor, while USD rise keeps lid on oil. Gold – 1-week low (-1.9%) at 1814.22.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21936.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to the House Finance Committee. US ADP, & BoC rate decision.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-1.9%). Plummeted to 1809. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0, RSI 30 & flat, H1 ATR 2.32, Daily ATR 18.25.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 9th March 2023.

Market Update – The DAMAGE has been done!


The damage from the Fed has been done and fears of an upshift to a faster pace of rate hikes this month, along with an even higher terminal rate and for a longer period of time, saw yields cheapen further. ADP and JOLTS showed a still hot labor market. USD steady at 105.60, Treasury yields nudged higher overnight, as did JGB rates ahead of the current BoJ meeting.The curve inverted further to -108 bps from -104.8 bps Tuesday, the most inverted since 1981. BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, a tie for the highest rate since 2007 and indicated it would continue its quantitative tightening strategy.

Overnight: China’s Feb consumer inflation slowed (1.0% from 2.1%), Producer deflation deepened. In Japan Kazuo Ueda nomination as the next central bank governor was approved, signing off on a new leadership that will be tasked with steering a smooth exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.
 

• USD hovers near 3-month high at 105.66 now. Euro held 1.0520 floor, Sterling at 1.1850. Yen gained some ground against USD, pullback to 136.60. The Loonie lost some ground, but is recovering with USDCAD at 1.3820 (4-month high)
• Stocks – US100 rose by 0.40% to close to 12,252. The US500 +0.14%. The US30 dropped -0.18, slid to 32,740 today. 
• Commodities – USOil – extended losses to $76.19. Steady today below PP at $76.70, as US crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels (more than expected) and hopes for China demand (China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3%) contended with worries that more aggressive US interest rate rises would slow economic growth and dent oil consumption.
• Gold – in a tight range at $1811-$1816. Ahead of Jobs Gold may bounce to $1,825 before falling towards Feb. 28 low.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below 50-DMA, retests at $21,536. Key supports at Feb low at 21,280 and year’s gap (19,888-20,350).

Today – US Initial Jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.49%). Plummeted to 98.99. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and falling RSI 35 but flat, H1 ATR 0.137, Daily ATR 0.729.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 10th March 2023.

Market Update – Stock Tumbled!
Blame is on Banks!



It is not only the Fed this time but also the US Banks and more precisely the SVB Financial Group SIVB which drifted by -60.41% yesterday. Shares of SVB, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, disclosed the loss and sought to raise $2.25 billion in fresh capital by selling new shares. The 4 biggest US banks lost $47 bln in Market Value! (BoA, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo). Jobless Claims unexpectedly ticked up. Germany February final CPI remains sticky at +8.7% vs +8.7% y/y prelim. UK January monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected.

 

Overnight: BoJ left policy unchanged, as universally anticipated, in Governor Kuroda’s final meeting. The policy rate was left steady at -0.1%, along with a 0.5% cap on the 10-year JGB yield (YCC).The vote was a unanimous 9-0. JGB & Nikkei (-1.67%) sinks overnight, the Kuroda swansong maintains Yield Curve Control with no tweaks and outlook remains as Dovish as ever. China’s Xi Jinping takes third term as President with eye on US.
 

• USDIndex gapped down to 104.62 low.
• VIX climbed 18%, the biggest jump since June, to 22.42.
• Euro jumped to 1.0590, Sterling up at 1.1950. Yen jumped to 136.96 from 135.80. USDCAD at 1.3850 high.
• Treasury yields plunged Thursday, first richening on the cooling in weekly jobless claims, then extending lower as Wall Street slumped sharply. Technical buying also supported the rally in Treasuries.
• Stocks – US100 dove by -2.05%. The US500 -1.85%. The US30 dropped -1.66%. Russell slid -3%, Topix Banks -5.83%. PacWest Bancorp fell 25%, and First Republic Bank lost 17%. Charles Schwab Corp. fell 13%, while US Bancorp lost 7%. America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., fell 5.4%. Twitter and Elon Musk face legal risks in FTC Probe. Tesla (-4.99%). 
• USOil – dips to $74.93.
• Gold – rebounds to $1834.79 but looks to be capped around here by the hawkish Fed outlook.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below $20K, filled January’s gap! Next supports at 2022 bottom!

Today – NFP and Canadian Labor data!



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX(+18%). Spiked to 22.42. MAs are now flat, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0, RSI 79 but flat, Stochastics falling, H1 ATR 0.36, Daily ATR 1.24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 13th March 2023.

Market Update – Futures illiquid & sensitive to news!
 

Another Bank failed over the weekend! Along with SVB, the Fed also closed Signature Bank. The Fed announced a new funding facility on Sunday, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), to stave off a possible fire sale and subsequent liquidity crisis and a run on banks when the markets reopened today following the failure of the two banks.

US equity futures rose and the USD declined so far in today’s trading after regulators weighed in to shore up the banking system and said depositors of collapsed tech sector lender Silicon Valley Bank would be fully repaid.





The Fed also announced the Discount Window is open and will apply the same margins as the new BTFP facility. Fed, FDIC, and Treasury officials also said customers of SVB will have access to all their funds, even those in excess of the $250k FDIC limit, on Monday. These quick actions significantly reduce systemic risks across the financial system and should significantly calm fears. Also First Republic Gets Additional Funding From Fed, (JPMorgan).

• USDIndex drifted to 103.43 low as rate outlook now is very uncertain. Could the Fed protect small US banks & hold back on raising rates at the next meeting?
• Goldman Sachs economists said late Sunday they no longer expected the Fed to increase rates on March 22, its next meeting.
• VIX climbed to 27.05 before retracing to 22.37.
• Euro (+0.84%) jumped to 1.0733, Sterling up at 1.2113 retesting 50-DMA. Yen declines with USDJPY to 134.50 from 133.50. USDCAD down to 1.3320 from 1.3860 high.
• The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 3.704%, while the yield on the 2-year note fell 0.15% to 4.435 per cent. Yields move inversely to price.
• Stocks – US100 up by +1.65%, US500 +1.53%, US30 dropped +1.09%

 
 

• USOil – up to $77.18, rising 0.65%.
• Gold – rebounds to $1875 on a flight to safety .
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – up by 9.1% rallied to $22.5K! (key neckline). Cryptocurrency prices rallied after US regulators said depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, a major bank for crypto companies, would get their money back.
  • Ether also climbed 9% to $1,611.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+9.1%). Spiked to 22566. Next Resistance at 23000-23090.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th March 2023.

Market Update – Markets brace ahead of Inflation!


The fallout from the failure of SVB and Signature Bank has been far and wide, rattling global markets. Much of the focus now is on upcoming central bank actions and whether policymakers will be hesitant to add to market volatility with additional rate hikes.

Wall Street was all over the board and finished mixed. Equities opened on the backfoot after steep declines overnight and amid losses of -2% in European bourses. Stocks slumped in Asia. Major US regional bank stocks suffered their largest decline in three years, FRC -61.83%, Credit Suisse fell by 15% (withdrew $120 billion in the three months to Dec. 31).

With the creation of the new “BTFP” to backstop the financial system, Treasuries garnered a very strong flight to safety bid, and especially at the front end of the curve. The markets also repriced Fed rate hike expectations, taking out the prospects for further aggressive action, and pricing in rate cuts later in the year. US Dollar was generally weaker through the session.

 Investors bet against the 2-year Treasury en masse, expecting its yield to continue climbing. That was the worst three-day rout since the days after Black Monday in 1987 eventhough it was not maintained.
 

• USDIndex fell to 103.48 with losses against its G10 peers. Today slightly higher.
• Yields – The 2-year had its biggest slide since 2008, to a low of 3.935%. It closed at 3.984%, the lowest since mid-September and is 113 bps richer just from Wednesday’s 5.07% peak, which was the highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 3.568%.
• VIX climbed to 28.35 before retracing to 24.47.
• Euro settled slightly below 1.07, Sterling held gains at 1.2160 (no impact from tight labor data). Yen picked up a strong haven bid to 133.00.
• Stocks – US100 posted a +0.45% gain, US500 -0.15% lower, US30 closed in red -0.28%.

 

• USOil – held losses ahead of key inflation data as the biggest US bank collapse since 2008 continued to ripple through financial markets. It is at $74 rising 0.65%.
• Gold – surges lower after 5% rally to $1914. Currently at $1909.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC surges by 12% spiking to $24,815.
  • Ether also climbed 6% to $1,693.

Today: US CPI report could give the FOMC the chance to remain sidelined, or at least decide on a 25 bp hike versus the 50 bps that was firmly priced in last Wednesday.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX (+6.94%). Spiked to 28.55 before settling below PP at 24.47.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th March 2023.

Market Update – March 15 – Can the bounce back hold?


The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected), however the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures see an 81.2% chance of a 25bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. confirmed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%.
 

• FX – USDIndex has dipped again to test the 103.00 zone today, last Wednesday it was at 105.85. EUR holds over 1.0700 and has breached 1.0750 today. JPY holds over 134.00 but remains capped by 135.00 today. Sterling ahead of the UK Budget today holds at 1.2150 after testing 1.2200 highs on Monday & Tuesday.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+1.06% to +2.14%) as tech companies recovered and Banks bounced. Movers: FRC +27%, SCHW +9.19%, META +7.25%, (another 10k job losses) TSLA +5.03%. BANCORP -3.43%, AMC -5.20%. US500 +1.68% (+29.96) to recover 3900 to close at 3920, US500 FUTS higher at 3925 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some –4% yesterday, posting new 2023 & 2022 lows at $70.72. It has since recovered +1.35% to recent support levels at $72.20, which could now act as resistance. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, up some $90 an ounce from tests of $1809 last week.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC breached both $25 & $26K yesterday to test a 9-mth high at $26.3k. Currently it trades below $25k at $24.8k.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget, IEA OMR, NZ GDP.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.59%). Continued the rally today from Monday’s low under 141.500 back to test 145.00 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.53, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.222, Daily ATR 1.377.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 16th March 2023.

Market Update – March 16 – all Eyes on Zurich…and Frankfurt.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Concerns over Credit Suisse added to the fallout from the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate. And though there have been problems at the big Swiss bank for years, fears of a global contagion exacerbated investor jitters. The Bank was down -30% at one point – closed -14%. The Swiss authorities will offer a loan of $54bn to try to prevent collapse and the stock is +35% pre-market. A risk off mood has raced around the World and holds for now.

USD, CHF, JPY & Gold had safe haven bids and the short end of the yield curve collapsed with the 2-yr falling the fastest in decades. Stock markets recovered from 2023 lows into close after heavy losses on open (NASDAQ +0.05%). Asian markets lower (-0.80% to -2.12%), US PPI & Retail Sales both undershot expectations, and the UK Budget focused on pensions and childcare as millions of workers continued to strike. Overnight: Japanese Machine Orders and the Trade Balance were both much better than expected and in Australia Unemployment dropped to 3.5% as jobs soared to 65K from a decline of 11k last month. NZD GDP missed at -0.6% q/q vs. -0.2% and 2.2% y/y vs. 3.3%.
 

• FX – USDIndex rallied over 150 pts to 104.70 yesterday and has eased to 104.20 now. EUR tanked from over 1.0750 to under 1.0520 before recovering 1.0600 today. JPY holds over 133.00 now but ranged from 135.00 to 132.40 yesterday. Sterling tanked from 1.2150 to test the key 1.2000 yesterday and trades at 1.2070 now.
• Stocks – The US markets opened 1-2% lower but recovered into close (-0.87% to +0.05%) Movers: SCHW +5.06%, XOM -4.97%, CVX -4.33%. US500 -0.70% (-27.36) to 3892, US500 FUTS +0.95% higher at 3930 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some -6% again yesterday, following a -4% fall on Tuesday to touch $65.70 lows last touched December 2021. It has since recovered to $67.80. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1920 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC dipped to $24k from $25K yesterday and trades at $24.5k now.

Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6600 back to test 0.6660 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 59.56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00154, Daily ATR 0.00782.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 17th March 2023.

Market Update – March 17 – Another day another bank bailout.



A private ($30 bln) “rescue” of First Republic Bank by a consortium of 11 big banks helped ease concerns over a full blown financial crisis. Their efforts were rewarded yesterday, as risk appetite improved and investors returned to Wall Street, lifting the major indexes sharply. USA100 jump 2.48% and is up 7.95% from Monday’s nadir, the US500 advance 1.76%, and the USA30 was 1.17% firmer. A risk off mood that raced around the world this week has cooled. Asian markets are firmer too (Hang Seng leads at +1.44%) and European FUTS are also in positive territory.

USD & Treasuries have cooled as yields recover. The 2-year jumped 27 bp to 4.155% and the 10-year was up 12 bp to 3.569%, back over the 4.00% and 3.5% levels, respectively. The curve bear flattened to -59 bp from -44 bp on Wednesday and versus -108 bp a week ago.

ECB delivered a 50 bp rate hike, and stuck to its guns, despite the turmoil in financial markets this week. The guidance on future moves was not surprisingly dropped though and the ECB stressed that future decisions will be data dependent. Ms. Lagarde’s Press Conference emphasised the data dependency approach.

US Data & Overnight: US Weekly Claims fell again (192k vs. 212k) and the Housing Data was also better than expected. Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity rose significantly too (0.95 vs -0.4% last month).
 

• FX – USDIndex has dipped to test 103.50 today from 104.70 highs on Wednesday. EUR tanked to 1.0550 lows as the ECB announcement was digested, before rallying to 1.0660 now. The 1.0600-1.0700 range remains key. JPY spiked below 132.00, rallied to 133.75 and is back to 133.00 now. Sterling rallied over 1.2100 yesterday and trades at 1.2160 now.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied (+1.17% to +2.48%) Movers: SCHW -2.80%, FRC rallied +10% (but lost –17% after hours). Tech giants gained over 4% MSFT, AMZN & GOOG . US500 +1.67% (+68) to 3960, US500 FUTS higher too 4000 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the 15-mth low at $65.70 again yesterday before recovering to $69.00. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1930 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC has again rallied over $25K & $26k to $26.5k now.

Today – EZ HICP (Final), US Industrial Production, Leading Index Change, Univ. of Michigan (Prelim.) and Quad Witching.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.95%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6150 back to test 0.6250 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00128, Daily ATR 0.00766.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 20th March 2023.

Market Update – March 20 – CS sends shockwaves through the market!


UBS to buy Credit Suisse in a more than $3 bln share deal, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years! The Swiss government will provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse, while $17.3 billion of the so-called additional tier 1 bonds will be completely written down. Last Thursday, CS also took a $54 billion lifeline from the Swiss National Bank.

Credit Suisse’s takeover by UBS marks the end of the bank’s 167 years as an independent institution.

Global central banks announce enhanced USD liquidity arrangement. The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the ECB, the BoE, the Bank of Japan and the SNB on Sunday announced, “coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity, via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements”. The frequency of the 7-day maturity operations will be enhanced from weekly to daily as of March 20 until at least through the end of April “to support smooth functioning of US dollar funding-markets”.
 

• Insignificant Exposure in China: The Swiss bank’s Hong Kong branch has assets equivalent to around $12.7 billion, less than 0.5% of the overall banking system.
• Bancorp’s Flagstar Bank will take on nearly all of Signature Bridge Bank’s deposits.
• In 2019, the Fed issued a warning to SVB over its risk-management systems.
• Stocks – Stock markets are selling off! USA100 down to 12580, the US500 dipped to 3912, and the USA30 at 31,760. Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.4%, the Hang Seng is down -3.1% and European and US futures are also sharply lower.

 

• FX – USDIndex is at 103.40 today. EUR slightly down to 1.0636, but holds the upchannel since last Wednesday! JPY spiked below 131.00, retested S1 at 130.70. Sterling steady around 1.2190.
• Commodities – USOil – dragged down with stocks, at $64.70 low.
• Gold – up 2% today, breaching 3 year high territory at $2009 level.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC in a rally to $28,262 since Asia open, up more than 3%.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, Import & Exports from New Zealand.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+0.95%). Breached $2009! MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 78 OB & rising, H1 ATR 10.05, Daily ATR 31.41.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 21st March 2023.

Market Update – March 21 – Sentiment Stabilised?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite improved to kick off spring. Though banking jitters are still an undercurrent, the various rescue measures, including UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse over the weekend, helped ease global tensions. Trading in Japan is closed for a public holiday. European and US Stocks are extending gains for now, as US Dollar steadied at 103.

Confirmation from European officials that equities will take losses before risky bonds, which helped AT1 bond markets in Asia to recover. Speculation that the US could temporarily agree to guarantee all bank deposits if the financial crisis expands also helped!
 

• RBA comments showed that the bank will consider a pause in the tightening cycle at the next meeting.
• ECB: ECB’s de Cos won’t validate bets of 3.25% peak deposit rate. In the light of recent financial market jitters and after cautious comments on the situation from Lagarde markets have lowered expectations for the peak deposit rate to 3.25%, which would be just one additional 25 bp hike. ECB’s Kasaks suggested more rate hikes underway, if things stabilise.
• FX – USDIndex is slightly higher at 103.10 today. EUR slightly lower to 1.0712 but still in an upchannel. JPY above PP at 131.72. Sterling holds gains above 1.2250. AUD extended losses to 0.6675. 
• Stocks – USA100 advanced 0.39%, the US500 up 0.89%, amid broadbased gains, and the USA30 rallied 1.2%. ASX moved up 0.8%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 gained 0.9 so far. Amazon fell 1.8% after announcement for another 9,000 layoffs (so far 9% of its workforce). Google (-0.52%) suspends China’s Pinduoduo app due to malware issues. NYCB (+30%) surge after Signature deal. Pimco & Invesco face losses as the 2 biggest AT1 Bond holders of Credit Suisse.
• First Republic Bank posted further declines on top of the -80% plunge the prior two weeks, following a second downgrade from S&P.
• Commodities – USOil – continues to struggle but recoved from $64 lows to $67.24 now.
• Gold – has been a major beneficiary from the fallout, though it is a bit lower today, down -0.9% to $1971, after surging to $2,009.73. It has not closed with a $2,000 handle since March 8, 2022.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from $28.4K highs. Currently at $27.2K.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, Canadian Inflation & US Existing Home Sales.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD(-55%). Retest 0.6200 floor! MA’s flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 35, H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 48.4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 22nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 22 – Stocks build a rally ahead of Banks!


Stocks Rallied! Asian stock markets have followed Wall Street higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are also posting slight gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed as markets wait for the FOMC announcement later today. Even though concern over global financial stability is easing and risk appetite has improved, with central banks expected to tighten policy further there is still some nervousness ahead of the announcement, as fears that aggressive action will add further pressure continue to weigh.

UK inflation surged higher ahead of BoE.

The data came in much higher than anticipated, with CPIH rising to 9.2% y/y from 8.8% y/y, while CPI hit 10.4% y/y. Most worrying for policymakers will be the jump in core inflation – from 5.8% y/y to 6.2% y/y. The data will likely force the BoE’s hand tomorrow and another rate hike looks much more certain now than before the release.
 

• FX – USDIndex has corrected to 102.75 as Treasury yields declined. EUR corrected to 1.0760 but still in an upchannel. JPY weakened for a 2nd day, while it is now holding at 132.50. Sterling jumped after data to 1.2283.
• USDCAD popped to 1.37 on the cooler Canadian Inflation, from a 1.3654 low, but has dipped back to 1.3662 currently.
• Stocks – US100 advanced 1.6%, the US500 is up 1.3% and the US30 added 316 points, +1%. First Republic shares surged 29% while KeyCorp, US Bancorp, Truist Financial and Comerica picked up about 9% each by the close. Those five were also the top gainers on the US500 for the day.

 

• Commodities – USOil – has snapped a two day run higher and is currently at $69.50.
• Gold – Evening Star Formation ? Gold slumped back to $1934 as yields on the 10-year government bond jumped Tuesday, making it more appealing to hold Treasuries than Gold.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds around $28K highs.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, FOMC began its meeting, 25 bp hike expected, focus on dot plot!



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF(-0.56%). Jumped to 1.1334 reversing half of yesterday’s losses! MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 57 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd March 2023.

Market Update – March 23 – Stocks Slumped Post Fed.


Stocks continue month’s downward spiral! Wall Street reversed gains to close with declines of -1.6%, but the slump was a function of comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen rather than the Fed. FOMC hiked 25 bps as expected, 2023 median dot left unchanged at 5.125%.
 

“The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” rather than “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”- suggesting less than a 50-50 risk for another quarter point move!

Even though Powell began his press conference reiterating the banking system is “sound and resilient” and assured the Fed is prepared to use all its tools to keep it safe and sound, Yellen at the same time told lawmakers she wasn’t considering ways to provide broad guarantees to uninsured bank deposits. She assured Senator Joe Manchin that in the event the insurance is extended, it could be seen as a “special one-time assessment” where the cost was not a burden to customers with smaller deposits.
 

• FX – USDIndex slumped on the less hawkish view to 101.54 as Treasuries and implied Fed funds futures rallied on the policy outcome. That is not far from the 101.21 from February 1 which was the weakest since April 2022. EUR spiked to 1.0920, JPY has corrected to 130.80 from 130.41 low and Sterling to 1.2337 ahead of BOE.
• In the UK, MPs backed Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal!
• 
• Stocks – Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Nikkei and ASX following Wall Street lower, but China bourses outperforming. European futures are down, in catch up trade, and ahead of today’s decisions. US100 down –1.6%, the US500 is up at –1.65% and the US30 to -1.63%. PNC -5.49% and US Bancorp USB -7.28% declined more than 5%. Giants like JPMorgan -2.58% and Bank of America Corp. -3.32% slipped more than 2%. First Republic FRC -15.47%.
• The FAANG era is apparently over! Apple & Microsoft weightage in the S&P500.
• Commodities – USOil – hovering around $70.
• Gold – Evening Star Formation & Head and Shoulders failed! Gold recovered and is back to $1980 highs on the weak USD. Next key Resistance at $1990-$2000.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC filled March gap but found a floor at $27K.

Today – SNB and BOE Decisions are in the spotlight, while EU consumer confidence figures is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+1.66%). Jumped to 1983. MAs flattened indicating possible consolidation in the near term but MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 67 and flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 24th March 2023.

Market Update – March 24.


The various monetary policy stances and other dynamics in the financial markets are likely to keep the Greenback choppy.

Stocks initially down as Yellen stated that the government was not considering blanket deposit insurance, but afterwards her remark that the government is prepared to take additional actions provided some calm holding Wall street in green at the close, with gains of 1.01% on the US100. Asia markets were mixed, while European stocks are slightly higher on open. Overnight the BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank all hiked rates as expected – The SNB delivered a 50 bp hike, Norges Bank and BoE hiked by 25 bp. The bounce in risk appetite, the strength in jobless claims, and a renewal in corporate issuance have weighed a bit as well.
 

• FX – USDIndex modestly weaker at 102.30. EUR spiked to 1.0830, JPY has extended to 130.00 and Sterling found a floor at 1.2250.
• In Japan, we saw core inflation come in at 3.1% for February, marking the first time in 14 months that the pace of inflation has slowed.
  
   
• Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.23% and 0.3%, respectively. Block & Coinbase tumbled over 14% and #FRC #PACW lost -6% and -8.55% respectively. Nikkei was down 0.13% to close.
• Payments group Block said it intends to work with US regulators and explore legal action against Hindenburg Research after the short seller issued a report accusing the company of inflating its user numbers and facilitating fraudulent transactions.
• Commodities – USOil – hovering around $69-$70 as traders weigh the Fed policy outlook and fine-tune expectations for US demand. The US crude inventories unexpectedly lifted 1.1 million barrels last week, which is the highest since May 2021. Large builds on the Gulf coast outweighed a decline at the Cushing Oklahoma storage hub. Markets are still waiting for the expected bounce in Chinese demand, while on the supply side Russia decided to extend its output reduction through June. That should help to keep a floor under prices.
• Gold – at $1985 after retesting $2003 again. Treasury yields may have nudged higher, USD remains under pressure but Gold has remained supported and added to the gains.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $28K.

Today – PMIs from EU, UK and US and Durable Goods.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.56%). Drifted to 81.10. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 31 and falling. H1 ATR 0.25 & Daily ATR 1.19.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 27th March 2023.

Market Update – March 27 – A Volatile Final Week of Q1?


Asian markets are much calmer today after another wild and volatile week, but bank angst and recession risk continue to linger. JPY is underperforming peers to start the week. US Stocks eked out gains on Friday, the USD recovered & Treasury yields fell across the curve, with all trading under 4%. Deutsche & Commerzbank lost -8.53% and -5.54% respectively. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank will buy SVB from the FDIC, the Head of the IMF warns that global financial stability is at risk from banking turmoil, and the head of the Saudi Arabian national bank is forced to resign after sparking the run on Credit Suisse.

Week Ahead: US GDP on Wednesday and the CORE PCE Price Index on Friday top the data releases and the week, month and quarter.
 

• FX – USDIndex rallied from 102.00 on Friday to test 103.00 and holds at 102.80 now. EUR slipped to 1.0750 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY dipped below 129.50 on Friday before recovering to 131.25 now. Sterling tested down to 1.2200 on Friday and holds at 1.2225 now. UK OBR said that UK economy is 4% smaller due to Brexit exclusively.
• Stocks – US markets moved higher (+0.31% to +0.41%) Major movers were elsewhere: DB.de -8.53%, CBK.de -5.54%. Tech giants lifted US markets. US500 +0.56% (+22.27) to 3970, US500 FUTS higher too 4021 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the $67.00 level again on Friday before recovering to $70.00. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday and trades at $1970 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds at $28k after struggling to move away from this level last week.

Today – German Ifo, Speeches from Fed’s Jefferson, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel & Elderson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.55%). Continued the rally today from Friday’s low test of 94.00 back to 95.50 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.198, Daily ATR 1.600.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 28th March 2023.

Market Update – March 28 – Calmer Markets & Weaker USD

 Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Banking stocks rose across the spectrum yesterday into the Asian and European sessions, easing worries over illiquidity and any further bank runs, for now. JPY is over performing peers after yesterday’s weakness. US Stocks were mixed and the USD weaker as Treasury yields recovered across the curve, but all remain under 4%. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank gained +53%, FRC +11.80%, BAC, +4.97% led the Wall Street behemoths and Oil stocks were lifted by a rise in crude prices. Andrew Bailey said too many UK workers were retiring early, EU banking regulator (EBA) warns ” risks in the financial system remain very high” following similar comments from IMF chief yesterday.

Overnight: AUD Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.2% & 1.8%) & JPY Core CPI (2.7% vs 3.0% & 3.1%) both missed significantly.
 

• FX – USDIndex drifted lower all day yesterday and has moved down again today to 102.25 now. EUR rallied from 1.0750 support over 1.0800 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 today and holds at 1.2325 now.
• Stocks – US markets mixed (-0.47% to +0.61%) Major movers outside the banks were GOOG -2.83% and OXY +2.53%. US500 +0.16% (+6.5) to 3977, US500 FUTS 4018 now.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued yesterday from $70.00 to test previous support level at $73.00 today. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday & breached $1950 yesterday, back to $1955 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC fell from $28k after US regulators sued Binance, & CEO Changpeng Zhao for running an “illegal” exchange and a “sham” compliance programme. Zhao called the complaint “unexpected and disappointing.” BTC dipped to $26.5K before recovering $27K.

Today – US Senate Banking Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Enria, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden & Fed’s Barr,



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.67%). Rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.206, Daily ATR 1.910.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.