HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 9th October 2026.

 

Gold and S&P 500 Rebound: Can the Rally Continue?

 

 

The market risk appetite is improving on Friday as President Trump indicates that the US will not strike Iran before the midterms. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain intact but the US military is likely to remain inactive unless serious threats arise. Political experts say the White House will look to lower oil prices as the US midterms approach. This would be three weeks of possible calm in the Middle East.

 

As a result, oil prices, along with bond yields, are falling slightly, allowing for ‘risk-on’ market conditions. The best-performing assets of the day are currently metals and the stock market. In addition, a key factor is earnings season, which is only a few days away.

 

Earnings Season - OpenAI Eyes $70 Billion in Revenue by Year End

The quarter’s earnings season will start on Tuesday 13 October, with major US banks and the healthcare sector announcing their reports. On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group will make their third-quarter reports public. The release will mainly impact the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, but could also affect other stocks.

 

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are more exposed to these sectors, but the results can impact investor sentiment in general. As a result, all global indices could experience volatility and new trends. The technology sector will start releasing quarterly earnings reports on October 21 October with Tesla and Lam Research Corporation.

 

The three main US indices, the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have struggled in the past two days, but are quickly rebounding as earnings expectations boost demand. Of particular interest are OpenAI’s latest statements regarding its revenue expectations.

 

OpenAI expects its annualised revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion this year, compared with approximately $50 billion at the end of September. The change represents a potential 40% increase. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by rising demand for its enterprise AI services as businesses increasingly adopt artificial intelligence.

 

The company is also reportedly seeking to raise $30 billion in new funding at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. The announcement follows concerns over OpenAI’s revenue figures, which contributed to selling pressure across technology and AI-related stocks. Despite these concerns, the latest projections highlight the rapid expansion of the AI industry and its growing importance to investor sentiment.

 

S&P 500 Rebounds As Earnings Edge Closer

The S&P 500 is trading close to 0.30% higher during this morning’s Asian session, but is still forming lower lows and lower highs. For this reason, investors will be cautious about the index’s direction and market signals. Currently, all indices are trading higher with the Nikkei 225 and NASDAQ seeing the strongest gains, while the Dow Jones is recording the weakest increase. The fact that gains can be seen across all global indices remains a positive indication.

 

The VIX Index is trading 1.30% lower, while index components are trading higher in pre-market trading. These factors indicate a possible rebound, however, the put-call ratio and McClellan Volume Summation Index are indicating weakness in market demand. For this reason, the short-term indications remain positive, but medium-term risks remain. The medium-term outlook will also largely depend on earnings reports. If earnings fail to impress, the index could fall, particularly as its trading very close to all-time highs.

 

HFM - S&P 500 15-Minutes Charts

 

In the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading above the VWAP and the moving average. This is providing a bullish indication, however, if the price falls below $7,781.50, these signals will fade.

 

Gold Rebounds, but Will It Be Limited?

Gold is seeing a strong rebound after declining on Wednesday to the lowest price since 4 August. Slightly lower bond yields and weaker US Dollar are allowing Gold to rise. However, investors should note that both the Dollar and bond yields remain extremely high, which may limit the bullish trend unless market conditions change.

 

According to the September FOMC minutes published yesterday, all 19 Fed policymakers supported an interest rate increase, with over 60% anticipating another hike this year. The probability of a year-end hike reached 69.3%, its highest level this year. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged in October stands at 81.2%. However, most economists believe nothing has changed in the longer-term interest-rate outlook.

 

As the price rose 2% on Friday, Gold is now trading at a key resistance level. However, as Gold rises, the US Dollar Index is not continuing to fall. If the US Dollar Index remains above 101.80, Gold may struggle to continue the current trend.

 

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

 

Key Takeaways:

• Reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside lower oil prices and bond yields, are supporting risk appetite.
• Major US banks and healthcare companies begin reporting on 13 October, with results expected to influence broader market sentiment.
• Global indices are recovering, supported by earnings expectations and OpenAI’s projected $70 billion annualised revenue. However, medium-term risks remain.
• Gold is rising 2% as bond yields and the US Dollar weaken. However, expectations of another Fed rate hike and key technical resistance could limit further gains.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

 

Date: 12th October 2026.

 

Dow Jones & Gold: What’s Driving the Rebound.

 

Gold and the stock market are declining after originally increasing during this week’s market open. The u-turn comes as the US Dollar and Oil prices rebound. The recent key drivers are Russia and Ukraine’s energy ceasefire and also the tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. However, markets expect more volatility and greater clarity following the release of US consumer and producer inflation data later this week.

 

This week will also see the start of earnings season, with major US banks making their earnings reports public. So far, the Dow Jones is the best-performing US index, while the NASDAQ is witnessing the strongest decline.

Dow Jones - Earnings & Inflation

The Dow Jones rose 0.35% during this morning’s opening hours, rising to its highest level since 25 September. The upward price movement potentially may have been due to the better market conditions, including the weaker Dollar, lower oil prices, and the decline amongst bond yields. Investors may have also been continuing last week’s trend as the market gets ready for this week’s earnings data.

 

However, as the European open edges closer, the positive market conditions are fading. The US Dollar’s decline has come to a halt, and oil prices have risen 2%. For this reason, markets are becoming cautious, but the VIX index remains 1% lower, maintaining a ‘risk-on’ sentiment.

 

The main market pressures are currently coming from high bond yields and the Middle East. The geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and the risk of Houthi disruptions to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a key oil shipping route, remain in the spotlight. Meanwhile, easing Fed hawkishness, stabilising inflation, and signs of economic cooling weigh on prices. Currently, 82.8% of the market believes rates will remain unchanged in October. This is likely to remain the case unless inflation rises higher than the current expectations.

 

For this reason, this week’s events will be vital in determining how the index will move in the upcoming days. Markets expect the US inflation rate to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%. If the inflation rate rises above this level, the Dow Jones can come under pressure, particularly if oil prices also remain above $90. However, if inflation does not rise to 3.6%, the Dow Jones may continue to rebound higher. The possible rebound will be particularly strong if supported by positive earnings data.

 

Goldman Sachs Earnings Report

The Dow Jones will be strongly influenced by the earnings reports of Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan. However, the strongest driver will be the earnings report from Goldman Sachs. Currently, Goldman Sachs stock is the most influential for the index as it holds a weight of more than 10%. This year, the stock has risen almost 6%.

 

Analysts expect earnings per share of approximately $12.90 and revenue of $16.87 billion, representing an estimated 11.1% annual revenue increase. The bank is expected to benefit from stronger investment banking activity, particularly mergers and acquisitions, corporate advisory services, and underwriting. However, trading revenues could face seasonal pressure following an exceptionally strong second quarter, while rising operating expenses may weigh on profitability.

 

The fundamental outlook for Goldman Sachs remains cautiously positive, supported by continued demand for investment banking services and corporate transactions. The bank has exceeded earnings expectations for four consecutive quarters, increasing expectations for another positive surprise. However, tomorrow's market reaction will depend not only on whether earnings exceed forecasts but also on trading performance, cost management, and management's outlook for Q4.

 

If Goldman Sachs shares increase in value after tomorrow’s earnings release, the Dow Jones can also find major support. However, the upward price movement will also depend on the US Consumer Price Index as well as the less important earnings reports.

Will Gold’s Rebound Continue?

Gold, which has been struggling since late August, rose in value at the end of last week, taking the price to a key resistance level. The increase was partly driven by investors taking advantage of lower prices following Wednesday’s sharp decline. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October provided further support. So far this morning, the price has seen an impulse wave in both directions.

 

In the medium term, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will help determine Gold's price action. Whereas, in the short term (Monday alone), markets will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, bond yields, oil prices, and the US Dollar. If the US Dollar Index remains above 102.00 and bond yields record a daily gain, Gold will struggle to maintain bullish momentum. In the medium term, higher inflation rates could result in an October rate hike and potentially weaken Gold prices.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: Prospects of a ceasefire remain a key factor influencing global market sentiment.
• Corporate Earnings: Upcoming earnings reports could drive stock market volatility and influence investor confidence.
• Fed & Inflation: Stabilising inflation strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October.
• Middle East Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions raise concerns over oil supply disruptions and increased market uncertainty.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.