official Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Crude Oil Price Presses on the Support

Crude oil price attempts to break 75.65 level, to hint heading to achieve more decline in the upcoming sessions, organized inside the bearish channel that appears on the chart, to target 74.10 areas initially.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 76.2 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover and attempt to build bullish wave on the intraday basis. The expected trading range for today is between 73.8 support and 77 resistance.
 

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AUDUSD Under the Negative Pressure

The AUDUSD pair found solid resistance around 0.7150 level, to rebound downwards clearly and head towards potential visit to the bullish channel’s support line, located now around 0.6920.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, taking into consideration that breaching 0.7090 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish wave. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6980 support and 0.7100 resistance. 
 

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USDJPY consolidates below the resistance

The USDJPY pair settles below the resistance line formed at 128.90, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, while the EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bearish trend that its next target located at 127.15, reminding you that it is important to hold below 128.90 to achieve the waited targets. The expected trading range for today is between 127.60 support and 129.20 resistance.
 

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EURJPY Technical Analysis 

The EURJPY pair started to form new correctional bullish wave to surpass the additional barrier 141.75 and notice recording some gains by touching 142.85 level. 

Continuing to consolidate above the breached barrier reinforces the chances of renewing the correctional attempts for now, to expect targeting 143.60 and 144.00 levels, while gathering the additional negative momentum and crawling below 141.75 will activate the bearish track again, to increase the chances of crawling towards 141.10 followed by repeating the pressure on 140.25 obstacle.

The expected trading range for today is between 141.75 and 143.60.
 

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EURUSD Heads Towards the Second Target

The EURUSD pair broke 1.0830 level strongly to open the way to achieve more decline on the intraday basis, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next negative station, to keep the bearish bias dominant in the upcoming sessions.

It is important to monitor the price when reaching the suggested target, as breaking it will push the price to achieve more decline that its next target reaches 1.0635, taking into consideration that breaching 1.0865 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0695 support and 1.0865 resistance.

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AUDUSD Hits the Target

The AUDUSD pair managed to achieve our waited target at 0.6920 and settles around it now, settling below the bullish channel’s support line to fall under more correctional pressure in the upcoming sessions, targeting visiting 0.6780 areas as a next main station.

Therefore, the bearish bias will remain suggested in the upcoming sessions, taking into consideration that breaching 0.6945 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to return to the main bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6850 support and 0.6980 resistance
 

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USDCHF Hits the Target

The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 0.6250, and surpassed the bearish channel’s resistance to head towards visiting 23.6% Fibonacci correction level at 0.9315 as a next target.

Therefore, the bullish trend will remain expected on the intraday basis, and breaching the last level will lead the price to achieve more bullish correction that its next target reaches 0.9475, while breaking 0.9230 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to decline again. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9170 support and 0.9330 resistance.
 

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GBPUSD Crawls Downwards

The GBPUSD pair approach 1.2000 barrier, showing tight sideways trades now, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum gradually, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bearish bias that targets testing 1.1940 level as a next station.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active conditioned by the price stability below 1.2115. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1950 support and 1.2100 resistance.
 

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NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair found solid support at 0.6290, to show some slight bullish bias and begins attempts to build bullish wave, but it loses the positive momentum clearly, which might force the price to decline again and attack the mentioned level in attempt to achieve more bearish correction.

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels as next negative targets, while breaching 0.6365 represents positive factor that will lead the price to recover and achieve gains that start at 0.6445. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6380 resistance.
 

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USDCHF Crawls Upwards 

The USDCHF pair shows calm positive trades to gradually approach our waited target at 0.9315, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active as long as 0.9220 level remains intact.

Note that breaching the targeted level will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.9475 areas on the near term basis, while breaking 0.9220 represents negative factor that will push the price to the main bearish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9200 support and 0.9360 resistance.
 

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GBPAUD Prepares for New Decline

The GBPAUD pair repeated the strong negative trades affected by the negative momentum coming by the major indicators, to consolidate below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1.7500.

We expect to crawl towards 1.7190 to form the first target for the bearish track, noting that breaking this obstacle will allow the price to continue the decline and target more negative stations that might start at 1.7110 and 1.7055. The expected trading range for today is between 1.7360 and 1.7110.

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XRPUSD - Technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 – 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750.

Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418
 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair declined clearly yesterday to approach our waited target at 1.0635, but it bounced bullishly to test 1.0745 again, and it keeps its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, noting that surpassing the mentioned target will push the price to 1.0515 as a next negative station.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0640 support and 1.0800 resistance.
 

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Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell's speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let's take a look at some key 'on-chain' indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the 'average' BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.

The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market's profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.

It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it's about 265 days.

Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.
 

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NZDUSD Within Sideways Track

The NZDUSD pair still stuck between the next trend keys represented by 0.6290 support and 0.6360 resistance, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now, waiting to breach one of these levels to detect the next destination clearly.

We remind you that breaking the support will press on the price to achieve negative targets that start at 0.6210 followed by 0.6140, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend and head towards 0.6465 followed by 0.6530 levels as main positive stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6270 support and 0.6400 resistance.
 

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USDJPY tests the resistance

The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today’s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.
 

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USDCAD Attempts to Recover

The USDCAD pair approached 1.3350 level and bounced upwards clearly to test the first key resistance 1.3450, consolidating below this level until now, noticing that stochastic shows clear negative signals now, waiting to push the price to resume the bearish trend that its targets begin at 1.3350 and extend to 1.3280 after breaking the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 1.3450 and 1.3500 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3350 support and 1.3490 resistance.
 

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CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.
 

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GBPUSD Resumes the Decline

The GBPUSD pair bounced bearishly after testing the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, to resume the expected bearish track on the intraday basis, which its next target located at 1.1940. The EMA50 supports the expected bearish trend, noting that the current decline is considered as bearish correction for the rise measured from 1.0297 to 1.2443, and breaking the targeted level will open the way to achieve additional declines that reach 1.1625 areas.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the continuation of the bearish trend domination in the upcoming sessions, and the price needs to get negative motive that assists to rally towards achieving the waited targets. Therefore, we expect to witness more decline on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaching 1.2140 will stop the bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1940 support and 1.2110 resistance.
 

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EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target.

On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.