official Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Crude Oil - Trades near the year’s low

The key factor determining the direction of dynamics in the oil market remains the discussion of the maximum price level for Russian oil, which has not yet been agreed upon. Despite additional negotiations and consultations, the Baltic countries and Poland strongly oppose the introduction of a limit of 65.0–70.0 dollars per barrel, insisting on a range of 30.0–40.0 dollars per barrel. The desire of the leading European countries to set a limit is natural since, despite public statements about the refusal to purchase Russian energy resources, it is virtually impossible to do without them, and the high cost will allow them to hope that official Moscow will continue to supply energy resources further. However, yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak denied this assumption, saying that the government would stop cooperating with countries that supported the new pricing mechanism and intended to work only on market conditions while not ruling out a possible reduction in oil production if the offer exceeded demand. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, also pointed to the fall in oil production in Russia and suggested that in the first quarter of 2023 it could reach –2.0M barrels per day.

On the daily chart of the asset, the instrument is moving around the year’s low of 76.00, slightly correcting upwards, and the technical indicators confirm the likelihood of a local correction, weakening the sell signal.

Resistance levels: 81, 86.6 | Support levels: 77.35, 73.65
 

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Nasdaq 100 - The US stock market is correcting down again

At the beginning of the week, the US market traded with low volatility, but the situation began to change after a number of officials from the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) spoke about the current monetary policy. Thus, the Chair of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, noted that the US Federal Reserve needs to keep the interest rate above 5.0% throughout the next year, and possibly even several quarters of 2024, in order to have a significant impact on inflation. This opinion was shared by the Chair of the Fed of New York, John Williams, who noted that the regulator will continue the policy of aggressively increasing the indicator and will keep it at a high level throughout the next year.

On the daily chart, the index quotes continue to trade within the local rising channel, and the technical indicators are about to reverse and give a sell signal.

Support levels: 11330, 10665 | Resistance levels: 11900, 12553
 

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Gold price surpasses the first target

Gold price succeeded to surpass our first positive target at 1765 to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave on the intraday and short term basis, and the way is open to achieve our next target at 1786.5, and we suggest the continuation of the bullish bias to breach this level and achieve additional gains that reach 1812 areas. 

Therefore, the bullish trend will remain valid for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, noting that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 1765 and the most important above 1746.4.

The expected trading range for today is between 1760 support and 1795 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish. 
 

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NZDUSD Surpasses the Target

The NZDUSD pair rallied upwards strongly to succeed breaching 0.6240 and achieve our waited positive target at 0.6300, waiting for more expected rise in the upcoming period, and the way is open to head towards 0.6400 barrier as a next positive station. Therefore, the bullish wave will remain dominant in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 0.6240 and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6280 support and 0.6400 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish. 
 

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DAX 40 - Correction in the bond market supports the index

After the release of extremely weak statistics on the labor market, corporate news receded into the background. The number of unemployed in Germany in November increased by 17.0 thousand after an increase of 9.0 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 13.0 thousand. In turn, the overall Unemployment Rate in the country corrected to 5.6% from 5.5% a month earlier. The constant increase in the number of unemployed citizens has been going on since May, which is an extremely negative signal for the country's economy.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading well above the descending channel resistance line, reaching highs in the late spring of this year, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.

Support levels: 14260, 13430 | Resistance levels: 14830, 15540
 

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USDJPY - the US dollar continues to lose ground

Japan's industrial output lost 2.6% in October after falling 1.7% a month earlier, but the Economy Ministry forecasted an upward correction of 3.3% in November and a slowdown to 2.4% in December. Against this background, Manufacturing PMI also showed a negative trend to 49.0 points from 49.4 points earlier. Tomorrow, the national currency may receive the necessary support, as the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expected, within the framework of which the next plans to support the yen exchange rate may be announced.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving below the global ascending corridor, dropping to the lows of July, and the technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal.

Resistance levels: 138.7, 142.1 | Support levels: 135.5, 130.8
 

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AUDUSD - Key parameters of the Australian economy are declining

Thus, the index of manufacturing activity from AIG in November fell to 44.7 points from 49.6 points earlier, and the Manufacturing PMI amounted to 51.3 points, which is lower than 52.7 points earlier. The volume of investments also continues to decline: investments in production equipment in the third quarter lost 1.6%, and capital investments of individuals decreased by 0.6%. Even more critical is the 0.2% decline in retail sales in November after a positive 0.6% trend in October, which reflects a drop in buying activity due to rising prices.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a downward channel and is preparing to break the range resistance line, and the technical indicators keep a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.705 | Support levels: 0.671, 0.653
 

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USDCHF - Dollar weakness does not allow the pair to recover

Yesterday in Switzerland, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) published data on the volume of retail sales, which for the first time since the beginning of the summer, fell by 2.5% after rising by 2.6% in September. Inflation remained at 3.0% YoY, and there was no monthly change in the indicator, although analysts predicted its increase by 0.1%. The information portal procure.ch published a monthly index of business activity, which fell to 53.9 points in November from 54.9 points a month earlier, thus continuing the negative dynamics that began in April.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument has slowed down the decline and is gaining new strength to continue the trend, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal. 

Resistance levels: 0.943, 0.959 | Support levels: 0.934, 0.919
 

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EURCHF attempts to resume the rise

The EURCHF pair succeeded to provide new positive close above the moving average 55 at 0.9845, to confirm its surrender to the domination of the suggested bullish bias and approach the first target at 0.99. Note that stochastic continuous positive momentum will provide additional chance to record additional gains that might extend towards 0.9935 followed by 1.0 in the medium term period.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9865 and 0.9935, and the expected trend for today is Bullish. 
 

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EURJPY fluctuates within the bearish track

The EURJPY pair touched 140.75 level on last Friday, to rebound positively towards 42.20 and settles near the moving average 55, these factors won’t affect the bearish track by settling below 142.60 resistance line, to confirm confining trades within the negative track and wait to renew the negative attack to target the first main target at 140.25. On the other hand, breaching the mentioned resistance will confirm regaining the bullish bias by consolidating within the bullish channel again, allowing us to start suggesting the bullish trades and target 143.15 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 142.60 and 141.1, and the expected trend for today is Bearish. 
 

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EURUSD keeps its positive stability

The EURUSD pair ended last Friday above 1.0515 level after the mixed trades that it witnessed in the previous sessions, starting today with new bullish bias to resume the main bullish trend, approaching our first waited target at 1.0600, waiting for more rise to visit 1.0750 as a next main target. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, noting that it is important to hold above 1.0515 to continue the expected rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0500 support and 1.0680 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish. 
 

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BTCUSD - The rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve allowed the crypto market to regain its positions

 

The cryptocurrency market is under the influence of two opposite factors. On the one hand, investors fear the consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange and are reducing investments in digital assets, as evidenced by the decrease in the number of "whales," which, according to the Glassnode platform, reached a two-year low at 1,662K. On the other hand, the growth of cryptocurrencies can be supported by monetary factors: the slowdown in monetary policy tightening announced last week by US Federal Reserve officials at the December meeting led to the weakening of the US currency against alternative assets, including digital ones. Several analysts expect it will become a driver for the start of the traditional pre-Christmas Santa rally, during which the positions of market leaders will be significantly restored.

 

If the current growth turns out to be short-term, BTC quotes will return to decline with a long-term target of 10000 – 7000.

 

 

The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey level [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey level [8 /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). If the middle line of Bollinger bands is broken down to the area of 16600.00, the decline may resume to 15000 (Murrey level [4/8]) and 13750 (Murrey level [3/8]).

 

Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16600, 15000, 13750

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair shows some bearish bias now to move below 1.2300, to achieve some temporary bearish correction, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 1.2130, reminding you that our next main target reaches 1.2465.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.22 support and 1.24 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish. 
 

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NI 225 - bond market responds to Japan's supplemental budget

Quotes of the trading instrument lose value amid the adoption by the House of Councilors of the Japanese parliament of a bill to allocate 29.9 trillion yen to mitigate the negative impact of record inflation on the national economy, which will be attracted through the issuance of government bonds and securities. The funds will be used to compensate for the increase in the cost of electricity and fuel (up to 7.82 trillion yen), as well as to combat the consequences of the coronavirus and support the New Capitalism program, which was announced by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local ascending corridor, heading towards the support line, and the technical indicators holding a buy signal are ready for a reversal and a new sell signal.

Support levels: 27400, 26500 | Resistance levels: 28100, 28640
 

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USDCAD Achieves Strong Gains

USDCAD pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach 1.3500 and settles near 1.3600 barrier, to head towards achieving more expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its ways to visit 1.3680 as a next main target. The EMA50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid as long as 1.3500 level remains intact.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.3500 support and 1.3670 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

 

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NZDUSD - the American currency received a growth impetus

Thus, the report of Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz) recorded a smooth recovery of the national real estate market: Q3 construction activity in the residential sector increased by 3.1%, and non-residential – by 4.9%, as a result of which the overall indicator increased by 3.8%. Despite the positive dynamics, inflation continues to negatively affect the cost of building maintenance: Q3 cost of maintaining residential buildings increased by 3.0%, and non-residential – by 1.5%.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves above the resistance line of the downward channel, approaching it from above for reverse testing, and the technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal, ignoring a possible local correction.

Resistance levels: 0.64, 0.656 | Support levels: 0.6265, 0.61
 

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XAGUSD - Silver Institute predicts metal supply shortage

The increasing gap between supply and demand in the market can also support the position of the asset: back in early October, the Silver Institute predicted that in 2022 the demand for the precious metal would increase by at least 5.0% and reach 1.11B ounces with a relatively constant supply, which will amount to 1.09B ounces, provoking an increase in prices. At the end of last week, experts revised their preliminary estimates of demand, raising it sharply by 16.0% to 1.21B ounces, which means an even greater shortage of supply, which, according to forecasts by the statistics portal Metals Focus, could reach 194.0 by the end of the year. Confirming the trend, the London Bullion Market Association reported a drop in silver stocks over the past year by a record 27.2%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues the global correction, heading above the resistance line of the wide rising channel, and the technical indicators, despite the slowdown, keep a stable buy signal.

Resistance levels: 23.1, 24.4 | Support levels: 21.6, 19.8
 

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Nasdaq 100 - correction before the meeting of the US Fed

US stock indicators are turning to the downside, and the trend of recent days signals a significant increase in market uncertainty. Next week, on December 14, the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve of the year will take place and, given the recent statements by officials of the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRB), the regulator is going to slow down the pace of interest rate adjustment. However, the latest data on the labor market confirms the strengthening of the negative dynamics of indicators, and as the Unemployment Rate in the country rises, this may provoke the US financial authorities to continue their "hawkish" policy, which would be a serious blow to the stock market, which is already under pressure.

On the daily chart of the asset, the index quotes continue to trade above the local sideways channel, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.

Support levels: 11500, 10700 | Resistance levels: 12100, 12800
 

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Bitcoin is Trying to Avoid Losing Momentum

Bitcoin is trying to hold near $17,000 despite deteriorating sentiment on stock market indices. Analyst firm Glassnode reported that the major cryptocurrency has reached several important on-chain levels.

The average of realized losses was at new historical peaks at 0.60, indicating a progressive, unprecedented sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, these levels have proven to be opportunities for accumulation and heralded an impending rally by cryptocurrency bulls. The level of losses realized by the market since 2011 has become 14 times the level of realized gains. We also see a preserved '4-year cyclicality' in relation to the previous 'cryptocurrency winters' of 2011, 2015 and 2018. 

The chart shows two on-chain metrics to better represent the network's cost basis, and which have been breached in previous bear markets. Balanced price (Balanced price, blue band) is an experimental attempt to capture the 'fair' valuation of Bitcoin by measuring the difference between the value investors paid for it and the value of liquidated Bitcoins (Transferred price).  The delta price (Delta price, purple band) is the difference between Bitcoin's realized capital and capitalization divided by circulating supply; the moving average refers to Bitcoin's total lifetime. In none of the previous besses did the price of Bitcoin fall below the 'Delta Price' (purple). Only for about 136 of the last 4518 BTC days was there a period where we could see the price 'touching' the balanced price. Currently, we see that both lines are between $15,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin's price briefly found itself near the balanced price after the collapse of FTX, but the bulls quickly reacted by taking the stock up. Throughout BTC's history, the balanced price has proven to be the ultimate support level for Bitcoin, below which declines have never occurred.

Bitcoin chart, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency managed to hold the $17,000 level despite yesterday's dynamic sell-off, during which supply quickly pushed the bulls on the defensive and prevented it from reaching the $17,500 level. We also see that bitcoin continues to correlate with the NASDAQ index (yellow chart). Yesterday's declines on the indexes translated into sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry. As a result, Bitcoin has again slipped below the 200-session average (red line), and the next closest support is the levels at $16,800, where the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave that began in late November is located.
 

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EURUSD crawls downwards

The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.