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Crude Oil

 

Brent crude is losing 4% today, which can be linked to several factors. The US media is talking about uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling agreement, as several Republicans have made it clear that they will not support the bill. In addition, there are increasing question marks over China and further demand growth.

 

Nonetheless, the key factor that is likely to support price declines at this point is the disagreement within the enlarged OPEC+ cartel. Recently, Saudi Arabia's oil minister warned contract sellers about the possibility of OPEC+ action, which could suggest another potential production cut. On the other hand, Russia's energy minister says Russia is happy with the current course of events and prices. However, there have been signs that Russia may also be producing and exporting more than the internal arrangements in the cartel. This threatens a potential 'break-up' of the entire agreement, which could lead to a return of supply of as much as 2 million barrels per day, although of course one has to bear in mind the limited capacity for such a rapid increase in production. Nevertheless, recently, Iraq or the UAE were said to have hinted that they would like to produce more. 

 

 

Strong declines in Brent crude were triggered by uncertainty about the sustainability of the OPEC+ agreement and uncertainty about demand from China or globally if the US were to eventually go bankrupt. The nearest support is around USD 68 per barrel, where the 23.6 retracement is located.

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Gold

Gold prices experienced some interesting price moves yesterday. The moves were interesting as they stood in contrast to what incoming data implied in terms on next Fed moves. A very disappointing Chicago PMI reading that should be seen as dovish from Fed's point of view, led to an increase in gold prices as would be expected but release of a higher-than-expected JOLTS data that triggered a jump in Fed rate hike pricing failed to reverse those moves. Gold held firm following hawkish JOLTS data. Gains on the gold market started to be erased later on after… dovish comments from Fed Harker and Jefferson, that led to a drop in Fed rate hike pricing. Harker and Jefferson suggested that Fed may skip a rate hike at June meeting to better assess incoming data.

Taking a look at GOLD chart at H1 interval, we can see that price of the precious metal attempted to break above the $1,973 resistance zone and started to pull back later on. GOLD dropped below 50- and 200-hour moving average this morning and an attempt to break below $1,955 support can be observed at press time. While Fed members hinted that US central bank may keep rates unchanged at the June meeting, there is still a lot of data to be released until the meeting. Traders will be offered US jobs market data this week (ADP - today at 1:15 pm BST, NFP - Friday at 1:30 pm BST) and should it come in strong, Fed rate hike odds may jump again and potentially exert pressure on gold prices. US CPI inflation data for May will be released on June 13, 2023 - one day ahead of FOMC June decision.
 

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USDCHF

Swiss CPI inflation data for May was released this morning at 7:30 am BST. Data came in-line with market expectations and showed a deceleration in headline measure from 2.6% to 2.2% YoY. This is the lowest reading since February 2022. Core gauge slowed from 2.2% to 1.9% YoY, slighly more than expected. As such an outcome was expected, there was no major reaction on CHF market.

USDCHF saw barely any reaction to Swiss CPI print. Pair continues to test a short-term 0.9110 resistance zone. 
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

US500 - Trade of the day

Facts:

• US500 has broken out of the downward trend channel
• Currently, there is consolidation around the resistance zone
• The end of the hike cycle is near

 

Recommendation:

• Position: long on US500
• Target Price: 4384, 4437
• Stop Loss: 4230

 

Justification:

 

The US500 index has broken out of the downward trend that has been ongoing since the end of 2021. The index's breakout occurred at a price of 4200 points. After overcoming resistance, the index price gained up to the level of 4250 points, after which it retested support at the level of 4200 points. The following days brought a decisive rebound, and the previous week the US500 index ended on a solid plus. The price clearly broke above the support line, indicating a strong move. It is currently in consolidation around 4300 points, increasing the chances of a possible further breakout.

 

 

Next week, investors are awaiting key inflation data and the FED's decision on interest rates. Currently, the market estimates no hikes and hopes for a signal of the end of the cycle. The lack of a hike at this meeting may lead to euphoria on the indices in the hope of ending the cycle and a "soft landing". Although such a scenario is rather unlikely, it may lead to increases in the valuations of risky assets in the short term. This may be a sufficient reason for the US500 to continue the strong upward trend and break above 4300 points in the short term. However, if the price does not break above 4300 points, we recommend setting a stop loss close enough to minimize losses.

 

[DailyMoneySaving ✔️]

@Solid ECN do you have a referral or affiliate program that pays promoters for referring traders?

[Solid ECN ✔️]

6 hours ago, DailyMoneySaving said:

@Solid ECN do you have a referral or affiliate program that pays promoters for referring traders?

Hello,

Thank you for your message. Please see the rebate table in the screenshot below or visit here. 

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Refund Policy

There is no perfection in services online, and when funding is involved, we believe that the merchant should have a transparent refund policy. Solid ECN Securities acknowledges customer rights, and for that reason, we drafted the Solid-Refund policy. There are circumstances when it is essential to return payment. Clients may submit a refund petition if the merchant service was not as described or the service was not functional or if the client justifies the reason. 

We tried to make the money return policy concise, simple, and clear to give our customers a feeling of security. That is why we guarantee our services, and if it wasn’t as described the consumer has the right to apply for a money return. 
 

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OPEC maintains demand growth forecast for 2023

The OPEC report remains relatively unchanged compared to the May report:

• The OPEC report indicates maintaining oil demand growth forecast for the year 2023 roughly unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. The demand growth is expected to reach 2.35 million barrels per day (bpd) for this year. Demand is projected to reach 101.91 million bpd in entire 2023
• The demand growth in China for this year is expected to be 0.84 million bpd, which is a slight increase compared to the previous forecast of 0.8 million bpd
• Most of the demand growth is expected to occur in the second half of the year, which still creates uncertainty regarding the balance for this year
• According to OPEC, the demand for oil from the cartel this year will be 29.3 million bpd, which is significantly higher than the May production level of 28.07 million bpd
• Production in May declined by 464 thousand bpd due to voluntary production cuts
• However, the impact of the cuts was mitigated by the increase in production by Nigeria and Iraq

The OPEC report doesn't change much but reflects relatively weak sentiment regarding the demand for this year. Nevertheless, OPEC still sees the potential for a significant deficit in the oil market this year, which theoretically should support prices.

WTI bounced off the 23.6% retracement of the latest downward impulse.

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JAP225

Japan's Nikkei stock index closed yesterday's session at 33-year highs last seen in 1989, above 33,000 points, and today contracts on the index (JAP225) extend gains, ahead of the Fed decision. The index is being driven by a weakening yen and rallies in the stocks of Japan's largest companies, - yesterday Toyota (TM.US) shares in particular added to the gains. The rally of Japan's Nikkei was fueled by the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, which yesterday recorded their highest closes in 14 months.

After the release of US inflation data Wall Street is more sure that the Fed will not raise interest rates in June. Tachibana Securities pointed out, a significant improvement by global investors regarding the Japanese market - primarily large inflows into the stocks of Japan's largest companies and the automotive sector like Toyora, Honda Motor (HMC.US), Mazda. Toyota informed that it had overcome a technical hurldes (solid-state batteries) and will start produce more efficient, faster-charging versions of current batteries to improve EV driving range and cost;

Among all Tokyo sub-indexes, it was the automaker segment that gained the most strongly (over 4.2% growth). It is worth noting, however, that shares of this sub-index have behaved quite poorly in recent months and still have a considerable loss to the benchmark average - it seems that they are striving to close the gap;
The stocks of other companies related to the auto market (including manufacturers of EV batteries), industrial conglomerates like Kobe Steel, and shares of technology investment fund SoftBank also performed well. Slightly weaker on the Japanese trading floor were chipmakers linked to the still-weakening Chinese market like Advantest and Screen Holdings. 

Contracts on the Nikkei (JAP225) rose euphorically and are trading near 33,600 points. In case of a correction, the main support could be set by the previous peaks of February and September 2020, at 30,500 points. 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Economic Calendar: US Holiday opens a busy week

• European indices set for lower opening
• US traders off to observe a holiday
• Rate decisions from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank later this week

European index futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today. This comes after declines on Wall Street on Friday and after a rather downbeat Asia-Pacific session earlier today. Oil is trading lower at the beginning of a new week after a number of banks cut GDP growth forecast for China over the weekend and Bloomberg reported that Iranian oil exports reached a 5-year high.

Economic calendar for today is empty with no top-tier releases scheduled. Trader should also keep in mind that liquidity conditions on the markets may be limited, especially in the afternoon, as traders from the United States will be off to observe a holiday and there will be no Wall Street trading session today (changes to trading hours on xStation listed below).

However, things get more interesting later into the week with a number of events that can move the markets. Those include rate decisions from Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday, flash PMIs for June on Friday as well as semiannual testimonies from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.

Central bankers' speeches

• 9:00 am BST - ECB Simkus
• 12:00 pm BST - ECB Lane
• 12:40 pm BST - ECB Schnabel
• 2:00 pm BST - ECB Villeroy
• 7:00 pm BST - ECB De Guindos

Trading hour changes because of US holiday

• No trading - CORN, SOYBEAN, WHEAT, SUGAR, COCOA, COFFEE, COTTON, LEANHOGS, CATTLE, SOYOIL
• Trading until 4:30 pm BST - VIX
• Trading until 6:00 pm BST - TNOTE, US100, US30, US500, US2000
• Trading until 6:30 pm BST - OIL, LSGASOIL
• Trading until 7:30 pm BST - GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM, OIL.WTI, NATGAS, GASOLINE

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Solid ECN Web-Trader MetaTrader 5

The MetaTrader 5 Web platform allows you to start trading on the Forex, exchange and futures markets from any browser and operating system, including Windows, Mac and Linux. You can access the rich set of functions that are available in the MetaTrader 5 desktop platform directly on the web, which means you can analyze financial quotes and trade without downloading or installing any application. You can access your account and start trading in just a couple of clicks. Trading on the Web platform is safe, while any transmitted information is securely encrypted.

• 1:1000 Leverage
• %40 Deposit Bonus
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• Negative Balance Protection
• Refund Policy
   

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Economic Calendar: Survey Data from Germany and US, central bankers speeches

• European indices set for flat opening
• Survey data from Germany and the United States
• Speeches from ECB and SNB members

Markets remain calm after a short-lived Russian coup that took place over the weekend. PMC Wagner rebelled against the Russian Ministry of Defense, took control of few Russian cities and launched an armored column towards Moscow. However, agreement between Wagner and the Kremlin was brokered by Belarusian leader Lukashenko and rebellion ended before any hostilities took place.

European index futures point to flat opening of today's cash session on the Old Continent. Energy commodities and precious metals are trading slightly higher while the US dollar is pulling back. Economic calendar for today is light. Traders will be offered German IFO indices for June in the morning as well as Dallas Fed index for June in the afternoon. Apart from that, EUR and CHF may see some moves today as we have a number of SNB and ECB officials scheduled to speak.

Economic release schedule gets more interesting later into the week with CPI inflation from Europe and PCE data from the United States.

• 9:00 am BST - Germany, IFO Business Climate index for June. Expected 90.8. Previous: 91.7
• 9:00 am BST - Poland, unemployment rate for May. Expected: 5.1%. Previous: 5.2%
• 3:30 pm BST - US, Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June. Expected: -20.0. Previous: -29.1

Central bankers' speeches

• 8:15 am BST - ECB Villeroy
• 9:40 am BST - SNB Jordan
• 3:00 pm BST - ECB McCaul
• 3:25 pm BST - SNB Maechler
• 6:30 pm BST - ECB President Lagarde
• 6:30 pm BST - ECB De Cos

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A Dedicated Boker 

Our forex broker is dedicated to providing exceptional services to our clients. With 24-hour support, we are always available to assist you with any questions or concerns you may have. Our team is knowledgeable and experienced in the industry, ensuring that you receive the best possible service.

 

In addition to our outstanding support, we also offer the MetaTrader 5 platform. This advanced trading platform provides a user-friendly interface and a wide range of tools and features to help you make informed trading decisions. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, MetaTrader 5 has something to offer.

 

One of the best things about our forex broker is that we accept clients worldwide. No matter where you are located, you can take advantage of our services and start trading on the global market. With our commitment to excellence and our global reach, we are confident that you will have a positive experience with us.

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Oil Loses 1.5% as China's Growth Disappoints

 

China's GDP growth came out below market expectations! Looking at expectations from the Bloomberg survey, only one economist expected that the country's growth could be at such a “low level”. Of course, looking at the dynamics, growth of 6.3% y/y does not seem weak, although more was expected  (growth of 7.1% y/y). In the first quarter, growth was 4.5% y/y. It's worth remembering that in the second quarter of last year, China introduced very restrictive covid measures, including in the Shanghai region, which then severely limited economic growth. That is why the market expected that economy would grow much stronger.  

 

In quarterly terms, growth came out at 0.8% q/q, in line with market expectations and the growth in the previous quarter was 2.2% q/q. Industrial production for June grew stronger than expected at 4.4% y/y and retail sales were slightly below expectations at 3.1% y/y. So where is the problem with the Chinese economy? In the real estate market and in the "strong" yuan. The yuan is not weak enough to boost subdued exports. On top of that, real estate market sentiment remains very weak. At the same time, it seems that GDP data is not weak enough to lead to a further cut in interest rates. PBOC will decide on interest rates on July 20 and despite weak data, there is no expectation that the bank will cut rates once again. Recently, the PBOC surprised negatively by cutting rates less than expected.

 

Oil is losing nearly 1.5% today, mainly due to data from China, as the country is responsible for a very large share of expected demand growth this year. At the beginning of the year, imports were disappointing due to high inventories. Now that inventories are running out and China should import more oil. However, without a stronger stimulation of the economy, China's demand growth may fall short of expectations. At the same time, looking from the side of oil itself - a very cheap dollar may support the continuation of the rebound, although a "tactical correction" cannot be ruled out.

 

 

Brent oil is testing the area of $78.5 per barrel. If this level is broken, a test of the area around $77 per barrel cannot be ruled out. The size of the range of the previous downward wave also falls slightly lower. Seasonality indicates that further decline may be seen until the end of July. Nevertheless, for the moment, the uptrend remains unbroken.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Dollar Slides ahead of Retail Sales Data

The EURUSD continues to rise, mainly due to the weakness of the US dollar following the release of inflation data last week. EURUSD has reached the highest levels since before the Ukraine war and is testing very important resistance levels. Today, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of retail sales and industrial production from the US. Expectations point to a pretty solid report:

Moreover, the retail sales report will be the last important indication before next week's FOMC meeting (we will no longer hear comments from Fed bankers due to the closed period). At the moment, the money market is pricing that the FED will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday 26 July with a 95% probability.

EURUSD is testing the vicinity of an important resistance at the 61.8  Fibo retracement of the entire large downward wave started in 2021. A break of this level will mean a negation of the entire upward impulse of the dollar from almost the last 2 years. If retail sales surprise even more strongly than the consensus indicates, a correction to the range 1.1180-1.1200, where the upper limit of the upward trend channel is located, will be possible.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair goes below the psychological barrier of 1.3 and paves the way to the next important support levels set by the 200-week EMA (golden curve) and the abolition of the 61.8% Fibo of the February 2021 downtrend wave. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the market does not seem to be unduly changing expectations for further rises, so the risk of a continuation of the ongoing upward wave is still there.

 

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Solid ECN Account Types

Solid ECN gives multiple account types on the MetaTrader 5 trading platform, and tools to help individuals and corporate customers to exchange Forex and Derivatives online. All Retail, associates, and White-Label clients have the possibility to access various spreads and liquidity via state-of-the-art automatic trading platforms. Solid ECN grants an exceptional type of account options that clients can choose to experience a tailored trading experience that perfectly fills their needs. United with excellent trading conditions and lightning-fast execution, Solid ECN provides all the tools and aids required for clients of any level to accomplish their trading goals.

[⭐ OrigamiMag]

Does @Solid ECN offer money management/investment services? I don't have time to do trading, so I need someone to trade/invest for me.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

21 hours ago, OrigamiMag said:

Does @Solid ECN offer money management/investment services? I don't have time to do trading, so I need someone to trade/invest for me.

Hello,

Thank you for contacting us and expressing interest in our services.

We would like to inform you that Solid ECN is an ECN/STP broker, and as such, we operate in compliance with Comoros regulations on CFD brokers. This means that we do not engage in trading activities.

However, we are pleased to offer our clients access to the Solid ECN MT5 platform, which features a Signal service that allows you to copy trades from some of the most professional traders in the world. This service provides an excellent opportunity for you to benefit from the expertise of seasoned traders and improve your own trading skills.

If you have any further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us. We are always here to assist you and provide the information you need.

[⭐ OrigamiMag]

10 hours ago, Solid ECN said:

Hello,

Thank you for contacting us and expressing interest in our services.

We would like to inform you that Solid ECN is an ECN/STP broker, and as such, we operate in compliance with Comoros regulations on CFD brokers. This means that we do not engage in trading activities.

However, we are pleased to offer our clients access to the Solid ECN MT5 platform, which features a Signal service that allows you to copy trades from some of the most professional traders in the world. This service provides an excellent opportunity for you to benefit from the expertise of seasoned traders and improve your own trading skills.

If you have any further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us. We are always here to assist you and provide the information you need.

Thank you, but I don't have time to wait for signals, implement them then look to close them at the right moment.