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EURUSD Holds above 1.08 After ZEW Beat

EURUSD climbed above the 1.08 mark last week, reaching the highest level since late-April 2022. However, the pair began to struggle after US CPI data release for December (Thursday, January 12) and has erased part of the previous gains. EURUSD continued to move lower in the following days and threatened to break back below the 1.08 mark. However, German ZEW data for January came to the rescue. ZEW expectations subindex leap from -23.3 to 16.9 (exp. -15.0). This was the fourth month of increases in a row and the expectations subindex is now sitting at the highest level since February 2022 (launch of Russian invasion of Ukraine). Situation looks less rosy when it comes to the Current Situation sub index as it has moved from -61.4 to -58.6 (exp. -57.0).

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Solid beat in German ZEW expectations data helps EURUSD avoid a drop back below 1.08 mark.
 

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Chart of the Day - GBPJPY

The Japanese yen is in the center of attention today, following the Bank of Japan monetary policy. The Bank of Japan decided not to make a move today - interest rates were left unchanged and the tolerance band around target 10-year yield was left unchanged as well. This was seen as disappointment. The Bank of Japan has to intervene almost on a daily basis to bring 10-year yields down from the upper limit of the tolerance band so investors hoped that another widening of the band could be on the cards today. No such decision was made and JPY took a beating as a result. BoJ Governor Kuroda said during a post-meeting press conference that he does not believe the tolerance band needs to be widened further. Nevertheless, the term of Governor Kuroda ends in April this year and his successor may have different beliefs when it comes to markets and rates.

However, it should be noted that the Bank of Japan did make some changes today. BoJ announced that it is amending rules for funds-supply market operations. New rules allow the Bank of Japan to make loans against collateral to financial institutions on both - fixed and variable - rates. Earlier, loans with maturity of up to 10-years were only offered at fixed-rate. The move is aimed at making funds-supply market operations a viable tool for preventing excessive increases in the long-term rates.

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As no changed to the rates or tolerance band was made and Bank of Japan pledge to continue with large scale bond purchases to keep yields in check, one should not be surprised that Japanese yen took a hit today. JPY was trading as much as 2.5% lower against US dollar at one point, and over 2% lower against almost all other majors. However, big part of the move has been erased already.

Taking a look at GBPJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the move on the pair today was massive. Pair traded 2.5% higher at one point and was testing the resistance zone ranging below 162.00 handle, and marked with previous price reactions. Nevertheless, as we have said earlier - a big part of the move was already released and GBPJPY pulled back to the 160 swing level. 

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Chart of the Day - EURTRY

Norges Bank decided to leave rates unchanged at a meeting today but there is one more rate decision to be announced today. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will announce its rate decision at 11:00 am GMT. Market expects no change from CBRT with one-week repo rate staying unchanged at 9:00 am GMT. The Bank said that it has ended the rate cut cycle after a 150 bp rate cut in November and indeed rates stayed unchanged at the December meeting later on. While Turkey is facing massive inflation, there is a view that rates may stay unchanged until mid-2023 when elections in Turkey take place. However, should the Bank make a move at one of the coming meetings, it is more likely to be another cut rather than hike.

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Apart from CBRT rate decisions, traders will also get a chance to take a look at ECB minutes. ECB hiked interest rates by 50 basis points at the latest meeting, slowing the pace of hikes from previous 75 bps. Bank noted that rates will have to rise further significantly and a balance sheet reduction schedule was also announced. While there were some rather dovish comments from ECB members in recent days, minutes may not reflect it as they relate to the December 15, 2022 meeting.

Taking a look at EURTRY chart at the H1 interval, we can see that the pair has bounced off the 200-hour moving average (purple line) and climbed above the 20.28 swing area later on. The nearest resistance zone to watch can be found in the 20.42 area and is marked with recent local highs. Should CBRT surprised with a rather unlikely rate cut, the pair may quickly jump above the aforementioned 20.42 zone and look towards all-time highs from late-2021 in the 20.68 area.

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Solid-Micro Account

The main unique feature of Solid-Micro accounts is that the minimum trading volume starts from 0.001, while the trading conditions are similar to those for standard accounts. As a result, these account types suit both beginners and professionals, because they may help them test new trading strategies or Expert Advisors in market conditions without any significant financial investments.

  • Minimum Deposit $5
  • Minimum lot 0.001 lots (100 units)
  • Leverage 1:1000

Feel free to open an account and start trading Forex with as low as $5!

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Solid ECN Web-Trader MetaTrader 5

The MetaTrader 5 Web platform allows you to start trading on the Forex, exchange and futures markets from any browser and operating system, including Windows, Mac and Linux. You can access the rich set of functions that are available in the MetaTrader 5 desktop platform directly on the web, which means you can analyze financial quotes and trade without downloading or installing any application. You can access your account and start trading in just a couple of clicks. Trading on the Web platform is safe, while any transmitted information is securely encrypted.

Open a free account at Solid ECN today.

  • 1:1000 Leverage
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  • Refund Policy

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BTCUSD - The pair's upside potential remains

Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.

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The price corrected to the level of 22500 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bulls" remains the level of 23400, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murrey level [+1/8]).

Resistance levels: 23400, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 22500, 21250, 20000

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Free Market Analysis Subscription

Solid ECN team delivers professional market analysis with both fundamental and technical aspects on a daily basis on 6 platforms.

> Website
> Email
> Linkedin
> Twitter
> Instagram
> Facebook

Feel free to sign up for a demo account to receive the latest market update to your inbox, or follow us on social networks.

Our analysis helps our clients to trade more efficiently, cut losses, and find the entry and exit points easier.

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On 1/16/2023 at 10:22 AM, Solid ECN said:

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Solid ECN - %15 Deposit Bonus

One of the essentials in trading forex and other leveraged products is having more margin. It is a common and rookie mistake to trade in a high volatility market such as cryptocurrencies with a low balance.

Solid ECN has a backup plan for its customers. We boost deposits by %15 and it is up to $500 per account. All profits are free for withdrawal. Where most companies remove the bonuses on stop-out and margin calls, the given credit at Solid ECN is %100 tradeable, and it can be lost.

Solid ECN buys itself %15 more risks to make sure the clients are trading with more confidence. Try us today, and let us know about your trading experiences with us.

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Is this bonus still available? Can be boosted to 20%? 🙂

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7 hours ago, OrigamiMag said:

Is this bonus still available? Can be boosted to 20%? 🙂

Hi, 

Thank you for sharing your question with the community. 

The bonus deposit is adjusted according to the market liquidity and the risks involved in trading CFD products. I'm afraid the deposit bonus cannot exceed %15 at this time. 

Should have any inquiries, please do not hesitate to share them with the community. 

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8 hours ago, Solid ECN said:

Hi, 

Thank you for sharing your question with the community. 

The bonus deposit is adjusted according to the market liquidity and the risks involved in trading CFD products. I'm afraid the deposit bonus cannot exceed %15 at this time. 

Should have any inquiries, please do not hesitate to share them with the community. 

Thank you for the fast response. I understand your point of view and I find it just.

One last question before signup.. How I can make sure my funds are safe. I've read about quite a lot forex broker that lost clients money or simply turned to SCAM and didn't paid anything to the members and I would like to avoid that 🙂

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On 1/27/2023 at 8:38 PM, OrigamiMag said:

Thank you for the fast response. I understand your point of view and I find it just.

One last question before signup.. How I can make sure my funds are safe. I've read about quite a lot forex broker that lost clients money or simply turned to SCAM and didn't paid anything to the members and I would like to avoid that 🙂

Hello,

You are welcome. 

I'd be happy to address your concern. 

We developed a hub over the last 5-years to manage the risks involved in CFD trading. Solid ECN's hub spreads our clients' trades among 5 liquidity providers partial by partial. I will explain why it executes the trades partially in the next post. There are times that our dealing desk experts have to buy or sell the currencies on spot in local trusted & regulated exchange offices for volumes over 25 standard lots. 

We could pay our clients' money using this risk management over the last 5 years. We don't claim the accuracy of our hub is %100, but we always try our best to update and fix the flaws. 

Regarding the safety of funds, the hub creates safe cold crypto wallets for each deposit that holds the funds. The hub accounting features calculate the company profit every quarter (4 months). It is after the calculation that we debit the company revenue from the wallets. 

Scamming clients brings easy profit for the company, but it destroys the company's reputation over time. Maintaining the company's reputation is our main priority. 

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19 hours ago, Solid ECN said:

Hello,

You are welcome. 

I'd be happy to address your concern. 

We developed a hub over the last 5-years to manage the risks involved in CFD trading. Solid ECN's hub spreads our clients' trades among 5 liquidity providers partial by partial. I will explain why it executes the trades partially in the next post. There are times that our dealing desk experts have to buy or sell the currencies on spot in local trusted & regulated exchange offices for volumes over 25 standard lots. 

We could pay our clients' money using this risk management over the last 5 years. We don't claim the accuracy of our hub is %100, but we always try our best to update and fix the flaws. 

Regarding the safety of funds, the hub creates safe cold crypto wallets for each deposit that holds the funds. The hub accounting features calculate the company profit every quarter (4 months). It is after the calculation that we debit the company revenue from the wallets. 

Scamming clients brings easy profit for the company, but it destroys the company's reputation over time. Maintaining the company's reputation is our main priority. 

Hello Solid ECN,

Thank you for your detailed response. It's appreciated as I see you definitely you folks know your business. Found about yourself here on TGF and I'm impressed so far.

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Euro Area Q4 GDP Beats Estimates 

Q4 GDP report from euro area just came out and turned out to be a positive surprise. Growth reached 0.1% QoQ while market expected a 0.1% QoQ drop. On annual basis, GDP growth reached 1.9% YoY (exp. 1.8% YoY), slightly slower than 2.1% YoY reported in Q3 2022. Simultaneously, Q4 GDP report from Italy was released and it also turned out to be better-than-expected. Italian GDP declined 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2022, but the market expected a 0.2% QoQ drop. On an annual basis growth reached 1.7% YoY (exp. 1.6% YoY).

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However, in spite of being a positive surprise, reports did not have much of an impact. EURUSD barely moved while DE30 ticked lower.

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Inflation in the EU Below Expectations!

  • Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area fell to an eight-month low of 8.5% in January  from 9.2% in December, below market forecasts of 9%, preliminary estimates showed. 
  • Core inflation remained unchanged at  5.2%, while markets expected drop to 5.1%.
  • Unemployment rate 6.6% above market estimates of 6.5%..
  • Inflation slowed in Italy, Ireland and the Netherlands, but edged higher in Spain and France. 
  • The data for Germany inflation is not available though, as the country's statistical office had to delay the release of its own figures due to technical issues with data processing.
  • In January, energy prices rose at a slower pace (17.2% vs 25.5%) and services inflation also eased (4.2% vs 4.4%) while cost increased faster for food, alcohol & tobacco (14.1% vs 13.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (6.9% vs 6.4%). Compared to the previous month, consumer prices fell 0.4%, the same as in December, led by a 0.9% decline in energy cost.

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Core inflation remains at record levels.

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Core inflation remains at record levels.

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Chart of the Day EURGBP

EURGBP is one of major currency pairs that may see some more volatile moves today. This is because the Bank of England and European Central Bank are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions at 12:00 pm GMT and 1:15 pm GMT, respectively. Both are expected to deliver 50 basis point rate hikes.

While ECB members have been quite vocal about the fact that a 50 basis point rate hike is appropriate for today's meeting, recent cycle pause from BoC and slowdown from Fed raises questions whether ECB will alter its approach. A 50 bp rate move looks like a done deal and should the ECB commit to another 50 bp rate hike in March, EUR may benefit. A 50 bp rate hike and a hint that pace of rate increases will slow going forward would be EUR-negative and may support European stock market indices.

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On the other hand, things look less rosy when it comes to the Bank of England. The UK economy is facing a recession and BoE knows it very well. Higher interest rates are magnifying the so-called "cost of living crisis" in the United Kingdom and while another rate hike could help combat inflation, Bank of England is facing an increasing public backlash over its tightening. Having said that, there is a scope for a dovish surprise with BoE going in with a 25 basis point rate hike.

Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the 0.8880 resistance zone today and has even briefly traded at the highest level since late-September 2022. If ECB provides more fuel for the upward move by hinting at another 50 bp rate hike in March, the pair may look towards the 0.8990 swing area that was tested a few times in the 2019-2020 period and marks a local high from late-September 2022. A dovish Bank of England would also support a bullish scenario on the pair.
 

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Bitcoin is Fighting for 24,000 USD Level

Cryptocurrencies gained on the wave of Jerome Powell's comments and the double-dip of the previous 25bp US rate hike. Although the Fed is far from declaring victory over inflation, and Powell hinted at a possible return of inflation if the central bank does 'too little,' markets particularly liked the comments regarding the 'global disinflation' process that has begun. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to rise near its summer 2022 highs.

  • Bitcoin soared above $24,000 but was quickly knocked off these levels by supply and is now struggling to return to levels near the summer 2022 peaks. The strongest gainers are again altcoins including Binancecoin, Algorand, Sushi and Avalanche;
  • The volume of the cryptocurrency market rose by nearly 30% yesterday on a daily basis, to about $61 billion. The capitalization of the entire market is now around $1.1 trillion;
  • Meta Platforms' successful report supported sentiment on U.S. index contracts primarily the NASDAQ, with which Bitcoin correlates;
  • Wall Street is approaching a key day of earnings season, with today's post-session shows from Apple, Alphabet and Amazon likely to affect volatility and investor activity in the evening hours in the cryptocurrency market as well;
  • If positive sentiment continues traders may increase speculative exposure around Elon Musk's 'favorite cryptocurrency,' Dogecoin in view of recent comments by Tesla's CEO, who suggested integrating Twitter with both traditional finance and cryptocurrencies.

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The sudden surge of interest in Bitcoin in 2023 caused a massive increase in the average daily number of transactions on the network. Their number has grown exponentially from less than 200,000 to nearly 350,000 in a month, the largest increase in the history of a major cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin chart, H4 interval. The largest cryptocurrency remains above the SMA200 (red band) and SMA100 (black band), which is also the lower limit of the upward formation. Bitcoin has also reached the vicinity of the summer 2022 maxima, although this is the second time it has been pushed back by supply from levels above $24,000. The 50 SMA average (blue band) is approaching the cross with the SMA200, which in the past has most often heralded a prolonged price rebound, and has also crossed the SMA100 for the first time in nearly 10 months, which was a resistance even during summer of 2022.

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Morning Wrap 

  • US indices finished yesterday's trading higher. S&P 500 gained 1.47%, Russell 2000 added 2.06% and Nasdaq rallied over 3%. Dow Jones was a laggard with 0.11% drop
  • US index futures dropped in the after-hours trading following earnings releases from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet
  • Apple dropped 3.2% in the after-hours trading. Company reported a 5% sales drop to $117.15 billion (exp. $121.10 billion) and almost 11% YoY drop in EPS, to $1.88 (exp. $1.94). CEO Tim Cook said that strong dollar, production problems in China as well as the overall macroeconomic environment were to blame for poor results
  • Amazon traded 5% lower in the after-hours trading. Company reported Q4 revenue at $149.2 billion (exp. $145.4 billion) and EPS at $0.03 per share. Sales growth in cloud business slowed from 27.5 to 20% YoY in Q4 2022. Company provided a rather light guidance pointing to a 4-8% sales growth in Q1 2023
  • Alphabet dropped 4.6% in the after-hours trading. Company missed sales and earnings expectations with revenue coming in at $76.05 billion (exp. $76.5 billion) and EPS reaching $1.05 (exp. $1.18). Alphabet's sales grew at a pace of just 1%  YoY in Q4 2022, marking the slowest growth since Q2 2020
  • Indices from Asia Pacific traded mixed. Nikkei, S&P/ASX 200, Kospi and Nifty 50 gained while indices from China and Vietnam traded lower
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today
  • US and Canadian militaries are monitoring a Chinese spy balloon that is currently flying above continental United States. It was decided not to shoot it down to prevent collateral damage from falling debris
  • Chinese Caixin services PMI came in at 52.9 in January (exp. 51.6)
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said that Bank of Japan has a 8.8 trillion JPY unrealized loss from bonds it bought as part of yield curve control mechanism
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed today. Dogecoin gains 0.2%, BitcoinCash adds 0.8%, Bitcoin drops 0.1% and Ethereum trades 0.8% down
  • Energy commodities trade lower - oil drops 0.2% while US natural gas prices traded 0.9% lower
  • Precious metals trade higher - gold gains 0.2%, silver trades 0.3% higher and platinum adds 0.5%
  • NZD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while EUR and CAD lag the most

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Nasdaq-100 (US100) had another solid session yesterday. However, things turned sour after the close of the Wall Street cash session as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet disappointed with earnings reports. US100 took a hit and pulled back around 2.5% off yesterday's highs.

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Solid ECN Solution for Inflation

We have inflation concerns at Solid ECN Securities. Therefore we came up with an ultimate solution by providing multiple wallets to our customers. They can save their assets, investments, and profits in the most demanded currencies and cryptos.

  • Euro wallet
  • US dollar wallet
  • Pound sterling wallet
  • Canadian dollar wallet

Solid ECN offers trading more than 250 products with a Bitcoin based account in a true ECN environment! Feel free to open an account with Solid ECN, the best place to trade Forex, Commodities, Indices and cryptocurrencies.

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