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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency is trading with a weak downtrend, testing the level of 0.9880 for a breakdown and remaining in the area of record lows updated the day before. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the publication of data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as on Employment Rate. According to the first estimates, the growth rate of the region's economy in the second quarter amounted to 0.6% in quarterly terms and 3.9% in annual terms. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on interest rates is expected to be published, accompanied by a press conference and a speech by the President of the regulator, Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to correct the value by 50 basis points to 1.00%, and also continue to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to curb inflation. At the same time, traders would like to hear further comments from the ECB on the prospects for a recession, given the widespread decline in business activity and a sharp increase in energy prices, provoking a full-fledged energy crisis in Europe.

GBPUSD
The British pound is moderately declining, leveling the attempts of the "bulls" to show corrective growth at the beginning of the week. The GBP/USD pair is testing the level of 1.1450 for a breakdown, approaching the all-time lows of March 2020, updated last Monday. Support for the US currency was provided by strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before. The ISM Services Employment Index in August strengthened from 49.1 points to 50.2 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 48.2 points, and the ISM Services PMI over the same period increased from 56.7 points to 56.9 points against the background of preliminary estimates of experts on the decline to 55.1 points. In turn, the ISM Services New Orders Index corrected from 59.9 points to 61.8 points, while analysts had expected a reduction to 57.0 points. The data again reflected the resilience of the US economy, which allows the US Federal Reserve to continue the "hawkish" monetary policy to combat high inflation, especially given the further rise in energy prices. Today, the focus of investors will be hearing the report on inflation, as well as a number of speeches by representatives of the Bank of England, including its Governor Andrew Bailey.

AUDUSD
The Australian dollar shows negative dynamics, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before, when the AUD/USD pair came under pressure after the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The instrument is testing the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown, updating local lows from July 14. The Australian regulator raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.35%, which coincided with the main market forecasts, and in the accompanying statement it was noted that the main risks for the economy remain, and the RBA will continue to tighten monetary policy to stabilize the situation with inflation. At the same time, the regulator did not comment on the threat of an impending recession, noting only that the trajectory of the correction of the value may change. The macroeconomic data released today in Australia provide a weak support for the AUD/USD pair. AiG Performance of Services Index strengthened from 51.7 points to 53.3 points in August, which turned out to be better than the average forecasts. Australian GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.9% after rising by 0.8% over the previous period, although analysts had expected 1.0%, and in annual terms, the figure accelerated from 3.3% to 3.6%, ahead of forecasts at the level of 3.5%.

USDJPY
The US dollar shows strong growth, updating record highs over the past 24 years. The USD/JPY pair is testing 144.00, receiving support amid expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Macroeconomic statistics published recently confirms investors' expectations regarding the stability of the US economy, the recession threshold of which is much further than in the economies of Europe or the UK. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is still taking a wait-and-see attitude, without launching a cycle of raising interest rates due to low inflation in the country. Moreover, the regulator has repeatedly stated its readiness to resort to additional support measures, if necessary. On Thursday, Japan will release data on the dynamics of GDP for the second quarter, as well as statistics on the volume of Bank Lending. The economy is expected to accelerate in the second quarter from 0.5% to 0.7% QoQ and from 2.2% to 2.9% YoY.

XAUUSD
Gold prices are moderately declining, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair failed to consolidate on Tuesday at its local highs of August 30, reacting to the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, the data showed an increase in ISM Services PMI in August from 56.7 points to 56.9 points, while analysts had expected it to decline to 55.1 points. At the same time, S&P Global Services PMI fell in August from 45.0 points to 44.6 points with neutral forecasts. One way or another, investors are confident in the stability of the US economy, especially against the background of the energy crisis and recession risks in Europe. Today, the publication of a monthly report from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Beige Book", is expected. In addition, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. Forecasts suggest an increase in value immediately by 75 basis points to 3.25%. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also hold a meeting on monetary policy and it is assumed that the regulator will adjust interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00%.

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XRPUSD - Downward dynamics 

The XRP coin is moving within a corrective sideways channel, reversing downwards, and is currently at 0.3166.

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, the local downward wave is a narrow corridor within which the price rebounded from the resistance line at 0.3417 and reversed downwards with the target at the lower border of the 0.27 range. Technical indicators gave a signal to sell: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.

D1
On the daily chart, a sideways channel forms with dynamic boundaries of 0.2950–0.4240, while the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.2950. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars. In general, both charts indicate a likely continuation of the downward movement, the global target is to exit the sideways channel and decline to a historical low of around 0.2350.

Resistance levels: 0.3520, 0.4215 | Support levels: 0.2950, 0.2350

 

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Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency is correcting slightly after the EUR/USD pair showed the strongest growth in recent weeks the day before, supported by upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Europe, which gave investors hope that a recession could be avoided (or at least the timing of its occurrence will be shifted). According to the results of the second quarter, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Eurozone increased by 0.8%, while analysts expected growth of only 0.6%. In annual terms, the index accelerated from 3.9% to 4.1%. The Employment Rate added 0.4% QoQ and 2.7% YoY, while analysts expected 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Pretty solid results on the dynamics of the economy increased the likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) may decide on a more severe increase in interest rates than expected. The next meeting of the regulator will take place today, and at the moment, analysts predict a correction in the value in the range of 50–75 basis points.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading with a downtrend, testing the level of 1.1500 for a breakdown. The pound, remaining strongly oversold in the short term, is trying to show corrective growth, limited by weak performance, which the UK economy shows. Inflation in the country exceeds record levels since 1982 at the level of 10.1%, while further forecasts are also very pessimistic. The Bank of England expects the economy to enter recession in the fourth quarter and not be able to return to growth until 2024. At the same time, the British regulator is still set to further increase the interest rate at a meeting to be held next Thursday. Correction of the value in the range of 25-50 basis points is expected. Another factor of uncertainty for the pound and the British economy remains the policy of the new Prime Minister Liz Truss. In particular, the official is considering the possibility of fixing prices for electricity and gas for households by increasing budget spending and government loans.

XAUUSD
Gold prices are consolidating today near the level of 1715.00, waiting for the emergence of new drivers on the market. The day before, XAU/USD showed a noticeable growth of almost 1.0%, having received support from the correctional sentiment for the US currency. In addition, markets reacted to the decline in US Treasury yields. In turn, further growth of the precious metal quotes was restrained by an increase in interest rates by the Bank of Canada by 75 basis points, which once again confirmed investors' confidence in a similar decision by the US Federal Reserve. The upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held today at 14:15 (GMT+2), brings uncertainty to the market. After the publication of optimistic macroeconomic data from the euro area the day before, investors expect a 75 basis point increase in interest rates, but a more cautious correction of 50 basis points is also possible. In addition, during the day there will be speeches by the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB.

 

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Why MetaTrader 5?

Contrary to commune belief, MetaTrader 5 is not an upgrade of MT4. The MT4 platform was developed for trading in the Forex environment, whereas MT5 was coded for CFDs, Stocks, and futures access. To be short, MetaTrader 5 is for more experienced and advanced traders, but before we go with the MT5, at Solid ECN we ran a survey of the traders we know, and found out that most rookies and novice users are already with the MT5 platform, and for the first time the MT5 users have surpassed the MT4’s!

Major differences 

• MT4 has 9-time frames, whereas MT5 offers 21-time frames. More time frames assist technical analyzers to have a better conception of the market movement. 

• MT 4 has 4 pending orders, whereas MT5 provides 6 types of pending orders.

• MT 4 doesn’t have the market depth, but MT5 market depth is accessed within the chart. 

• MT5 has the Economic calendar on default.

• MT4 has 4 types of pending orders, whereas MT5 holds 6 types. 

• MT4 allows hedging only, whereas MT5 allows both hedging and netting on request.

• MT5 has 38 technical indicators, 44 analytical objects and unlimited charts 

• Partial order filling policies (fill/kill or cancel return) is another advantage of the MT5 for advanced traders. 

• The strategy tester of the MT5 platform is multi-threaded but MT4 is single-threaded.

MetaQuote corporation has been sending announcements about stopping MT4 updates. Therefore, we believe it was in the best interest of all parties to go with the MT5 platform!

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Payment Methods

Solid ECN Securities added more than 50 cryptocurrencies to its payment system. Our clients at Solid ECN can manage their account funding by a wide range of cryptos, from bitcoin to Zilliqa, all are available in the Solid-Dashboard > Account funding.

Solid ECN took this step to offer cost-effective payment methods for its customers. The blockchain transfer fee of the major cryptocurrencies have been increasing, therefore, retails are interested in trying the alternatives. 

With Solid ECN, any trader can take advantage of +50 crypto payments. 

• > It is secured.
• > It is undisclosed.
• > it is decentralized.

Solid ECN brings vital advantages for forex traders in the US, EU, and beyond. High levels of market transparency mean price manipulation is not possible.

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency starts a new trading week with a moderate decline. On Friday, the quotes managed to renew the local highs of August 18, but the "bullish" positions remained extremely vulnerable. The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to adjust interest rates by a record 75.0 basis points was a key factor in changing the dynamics. Also, agency officials announced the continuation of the "hawkish" monetary policy, despite the growing risks of a recession in the EU. At the same time, analysts are sure that the regulator's measures are untimely, and the rapidly developing energy crisis makes them lose any hopes for possible economic growth. On Tuesday, Germany is to release its August CPI, and the harmonized rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.4% MoM and 8.8% YoY. If preliminary estimates do not implement, euro quotes may show another rally to record lows.

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the morning session on September 12, consolidating near 1.1600. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. July's gross domestic product (GDP) data is expected to be released today, and analysts' forecasts suggest that the British economy will be able to show growth of 0.5% after declining by 0.6% in June. Also, during the day, traders will pay attention to statistics on the dynamics of industrial production, as well as preliminary estimates of inflation and August GDP from NIESR. Tomorrow a full-fledged report on the labor market for July-August will be published, and on Wednesday, statistics on inflation will be released – a key parameter for the Bank of England, which, we recall, is also set to fight high prices, despite the threat of a recession. Current forecasts suggest that the figure in August in annual terms will rise to a new record high of 10.2%.

XAUUSD
Gold prices practically do not change, consolidating near 1715.0 dollars per troy ounce. According to the results of the last week, the XAU/USD pair showed a slight increase, although, during Friday's trading, the "bulls" made active attempts to consolidate at the local highs of August 30. The pressure on the instrument's position is still exerted by the growing dollar and the increased yield of US Treasury bonds (it reached 3.339% for ten-year securities against 3.321% last Friday). Also, investors fear further tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Recall that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada adjusted interest rates by 75.0 basis points last week.

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BTCUSD - The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend

The "bears" failed to break through 18500 down and update the June low in the BTCUSD pair. The weakness of sellers is due to the strengthening of the positions of risky assets against the backdrop of a downward correction in the US dollar exchange rate.

Investors have begun to re-examine alternative means of investment, including cryptocurrencies. So, on September 4, the BTC hash rate was 298.5 EH/s, renewing the previous high of August 280 EH/s, which indicates that miners continue to introduce new capacities, thereby increasing the security and stability of the network.

Meanwhile, against an intensifying sanctions policy against the national economy, the Russian authorities announced the need to legalize cross-border transactions using digital instruments. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, the department is now ready to allow residents of the country to open cryptocurrency wallets. He also pointed out that the positions of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia regarding mining activities began to converge, and already in the autumn session, the State Duma could pass a law that would regulate this segment. Recall that at the end of last month, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin proposed using digital currencies in foreign trade (particularly when importing and exporting goods) as an alternative to existing means of payment.

The impossibility of breaking through the support level of 18500 led the instrument to grow by 20%, and now the target for the movement of quotes is 25000. If this level is held, the fall of "digital gold" will continue, and the June low of 17670 is likely to be renewed. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency will continue to strengthen with the targets at 27444 and 32100.

The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend. Currently, the price has consolidated above the resistance level of 21600.00, which suggests an upward movement to the area of 22700. The breakout of 22700 will allow the quotes to strengthen to 24200.00 and 24600.00.

Resistance levels: 24900, 27444, 32100 | Support levels: 18500, 13200

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Solid ECN - Account Types

Solid ECN gives multiple account types on the MetaTrader 5 trading platform to help individuals and corporate customers to exchange Forex and Derivatives online.

All Retail, associates, and White-Label clients have the possibility to access various spreads and liquidity via state-of-the-art automatic trading platforms. Solid ECN grants an exceptional type of account options that clients can choose to experience a tailored trading experience that perfectly fills their needs.

United with excellent trading conditions and lightning-fast execution, Solid ECN provides all the tools and aids required for clients of any level to accomplish their trading goals.

Whether you’re a casual trader or experienced investor, Solid ECN offers an extensive range of account options. Through our true ECN accounts, we’re able to deliver spreads from 0 pips and millisecond execution against best bid / ask prices—all with world-class customer service.

	Min Deposit	Max Leverage	Min Spread	Fee
Micro	$5	1:1000	2 pips	No
Standard	$10	1:1000	0.3 pips	No
Swap Free	$10	1:1000	0.3 pips	No
ECN	$10	1:1000	0	$3

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0125. The day before, the EUR/USD pair showed active growth and managed to update local highs from August 17, approaching the resistance at the level of 1.0200. Nevertheless, the "bulls" failed to consolidate at their positions, and in the afternoon the dollar began to quickly win back its losses. The single currency is slightly supported by the improvement of the situation in the energy markets. Against the backdrop of reports that European storage facilities are full of gas, prices for this energy resource fell below 2000 dollars per 1000 cubic meters for the first time since July. In the meantime, experts warn against premature conclusions, as the main difficulties are yet to come. Investors are analyzing August data on inflation in Germany, released today: on a monthly basis, the figure fell from 0.9% to 0.3%, and on an annual basis it corrected from 7.5% to 7.9%, justifying analysts' preliminary estimates. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index recorded at the level of 8.8%. In addition, during the day the results of a study by the ZEW Institute on Economic Sentiment in Germany and the eurozone for September will be published.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics, holding near 1.1700 and local highs of August 30. The day before, the GBP/USD pair showed moderate growth, although the macroeconomic background from the UK turned out to be rather weak. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in July showed an increase of only 0.2% after falling by 0.6% a month earlier. Analysts expected an increase of 0.5%. The volume of Industrial Production fell again in July by 0.3% after falling by 0.9% in June. In annual terms, the growth rate of production slowed down from 2.4% to 1.1%. Forecasts suggested an increase of the indicator by 0.4% in monthly terms and by 2.0% in annual terms. NIESR GDP Estimate in August was adjusted downward by 0.2%, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of growth by 0.1%. Today, investors are watching the statistics on the British labor market. The Unemployment Rate in July fell from 3.8% to 3.6%; however, the Claimant Count increased by 6.3 thousand after a decrease by 14.5 thousand, which may negatively affect the quotations of the national currency.

XAUUSD

Gold prices show multidirectional dynamics, continuing to consolidate near 1720.00. Investors prefer to wait for new drivers to move the XAU/USD quotes. However, the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recorded an active reduction in transactions by sellers, and the trend is observed in all categories: in positions backed by money, "bulls" increased activity, reaching 1.294 thousand contracts, while "bears" reduced the volume by 4.035 thousand. At the same time, despite signs of a slowdown in consumer prices, the US Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row at a meeting to be held next week.

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Key Releases

 

The USD is growing against all world currencies – the euro, the pound and the yen.
The key event of today was the publication of the August inflation data: on a monthly basis, the indicator added 0.1%, which led to a decrease in the annual value from 8.5% to 8.3%. Despite the downward dynamics for the second month in a row, experts are disappointed with changes in the cost of goods and services, with the exception of food and energy, where the core index reached 0.6% in monthly terms and 6.3% in annual terms. Thus, there are still no prerequisites for a slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed.

 

The euro is strengthening against the USD and the pound but has ambiguous dynamics against the yen.
The European currency corrects upwards after the release of statistics on the level of consumer prices in Germany: in August, the indicator added 0.3% after rising by 0.9% last month, while the annual value corrected from 7.5% to 7.9%. In Spain, inflation accelerated by 0.3%, pushing the annual rate up to 10.5%. Thus, the strengthening of the European currency can be continued, at least until the publication of statistics by the rest of the eurozone states.

 

The pound is declining in pairs with the main competitors – the euro and the yen but is growing in pair with the USD.
The British currency is strengthening its positions, and the data on the national labor market published today served as the driver of the upward dynamics. Thus, the unemployment rate in July fell to 3.6% from 3.8%, and employment reached 40.0K. The number of applications for unemployment benefits was fixed at 6.3K after -14.5K last month. Another positive signal was another increase in the average wage, including bonuses, by 5.5% from 5.2%, while the same figure without bonuses was 5.2%.

 

The yen continues to strengthen in pairs with all major world currencies – the USD, the euro and the pound.

The Japanese currency in today's trading again demonstrates a positive trend. Meanwhile, more and more experts are speaking out on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and current support programs. Thus, according to reports, at the next meeting, which will be held on September 22, in addition to monetary policy, the issue of canceling a special program of state financing of small businesses that have come under pressure during the COVID-19 pandemic will also be discussed. The released funds will have to be used to support economic-forming enterprises. The corporate goods price index was also released today, adding 0.2% in August, up 9.0% year-on-year.

 

The Australian dollar is strengthening in pairs with major currencies – the euro, the USD and the pound, but is declining in pair with the yen.

Quotes were supported by morning data on the index of consumer sentiment from Westpac: in September, the index added 3.9% after falling by 3.0% last month. In turn, the index of business confidence from the National Bank of Australia reached 10.0 points. It should also be noted that the Nine News TV channel conducted another public opinion poll, in which it turned out that more than 60.0% of respondents believe that the country should remain a monarchy, and only 40.0% were in favor of switching to a republican form of government.

 

Oil quotes returned to the opening levels of last week, exceeding 94.0 dollars per barrel.

As Reuters reported today, the US strategic energy stock continues to decline at a faster rate than previously expected, and, according to yesterday's data, it amounted to 434.1M barrels, the lowest since 1984. If the dynamics continue, then by the estimated date of the end of the sales (tentatively in October), the indicator may fall to a 40-year low of 385.0M barrels.

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows a moderate increase against the US dollar, recovering from a sharp decline the day before, which again returned the EUR/USD pair to the psychological level of 1.0000. The reason for the emergence of an active "bullish" trend in the US currency on Tuesday was the publication of August data from the US on inflation. The Consumer Price Index showed an increase of 0.1%, while analysts expected a decrease by a similar amount. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 8.5% to 8.3%, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of a fall to 8.1%. The released data lowered the market's positive expectations regarding the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued by the leading central banks. At the same time, the likelihood of an interest rate correction by another 75 basis points by the US Federal Reserve next week has increased. In turn, the European statistics turned out to be weak and additionally contributed to the depreciation of the single currency. According to a study by the ZEW Institute, the index of Economic Sentiment in the euro area fell from -54.9 points to -60.7 points, while analysts had expected a slight increase in the indicator to -52.0 points. The index of Economic Sentiment in Germany over the same period corrected from -55.3 points to -61.9 points, although analysts had expected a decline to -60.0 points.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with an uptrend, trying to restore its positions after a strong decline the day before, provoked by the release of data on inflation in the US: in monthly terms, the indicator added 0.1% against the forecast of -0.1%. Thus, the correction in the prices of oil and gasoline did not help to overcome the increase in the cost of food and services. In addition, the market for petroleum products remains highly volatile as the EU countries intend to impose cap prices on energy resources imported from the Russian Federation. In turn, pressure on the pound yesterday was exerted by not the most confident report on the labor market in the UK. The Claimant Count showed an increase in August by 6.3 thousand after a decrease of 14.5 thousand in the previous reporting period, while market forecasts assumed a decline of 9.2 thousand. At the same time, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus added 5.2% 3MoY in July, although an increase of only 5.0% was expected, and the ILO Unemployment Rate corrected from 3.8% to 3.6%.

XAUUSD
Gold prices show a slight negative trend, consolidating near 1700.00. The day before, the XAU/USD pair showed an active decline, as traders analyzed data from the US. In particular, consumer inflation in August added 0.1% with an expected decline by a similar amount, while CPI excluding Food and Energy accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6%, which turned out to be significantly worse than neutral forecasts. In annual terms, the value adjusted from 8.5% to 8.3%. Thus, the US Federal Reserve has so far managed to only slightly slow down inflation, which raises many questions about the prospects of the current "hawkish" rate of the regulator. Currently, about 82% of analysts expect that at the September 21 meeting, the interest rate will be increased by 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25% per annum.

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows a slight decrease, consolidating near the level of 0.9965 and holding near the local lows of September 8. The EUR/USD pair, having updated local highs from August 17 at the beginning of the week, went down sharply, reacting to the US data released on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index in August showed an increase of 0.1%, while analysts expected a decrease by a similar amount. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 8.5% to 8.3%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at 8.1%. CPI excluding Food and Energy in August accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6% in monthly terms and from 5.9% to 6.3% in annual terms. Additional pressure on the positions of the single currency was later exerted by data from the eurozone: Industrial Production fell 2.3% in July after rising 1.1% in the previous month, although analysts had expected only -1.0%. In annual terms, the decline in production amounted to 2.4% after rising by 2.2% in June. The market fears that with the onset of cold weather and the aggravation of the energy crisis in Europe, the rate of decline in production can only increase.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading in different directions, consolidating near 1.1500. The day before, the GBP/USD pair attempted corrective growth, but the "bulls" managed to demonstrate only limited dynamics against the backdrop of increasing demand for the "safe" dollar and the publication of August statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. Thus, the Consumer Price Index in annual terms in August retreated from its record highs at the level of 10.1% to 9.9%, while analysts expected further growth to 10.2%, and in monthly terms, its pace slowed down from 0.6% to 0.5%. The non-seasonally adjusted Core Producer Price Index fell from 14.4% to 13.7% on an annualized basis in the same period, while the forecast was at 13.9%, and on a monthly basis the same indicator adjusted from 0.8% to 0.3%. The focus of investors today will be statistics from the US on the dynamics of Retail Sales in August. Forecasts suggest a further slowdown in the indicator dynamics against the backdrop of a reduction in Household Spending on non-essential goods. In the UK, Retail Sales data will be released on Friday.

XAUUSD
Gold prices show a moderate decline, testing 1700.00 for a breakdown. At the moment, the XAU/USD pair is updating local lows from July 21, retreating under pressure from the growing dollar and expectations of further tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy next week. The meeting of the regulator will be held on September 20-21 and the interest rate, as expected by most analysts, may be increased by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. In turn, the trend towards some slowdown in inflation in the US and Europe will affect the pace of tightening monetary stimulus by the leading central banks. Now the threat of a recession may come to the fore, but in the case of the American economy, there are no serious concerns for this yet. Today, the focus of investors will be statistics on the dynamics of Jobless Claims, as well as the August data on Industrial Production and Retail Sales in the US. As before, analysts expect near-zero sales dynamics in August.
 

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Key Releases

USD reversed and began to rise against all major competitors: EUR, JPY, and GBP.

US dollar received slight support after the publication of today's macroeconomic statistics: Initial Jobless Claims amounted to 213.0K, significantly lower than 218.0K a week earlier, and the Total Claims number was corrected to 1.403M from 1.401M. In terms of retail sales, there is also a positive trend here, and the figure was 0.3% in August, up from –0.4% in July, while the import price index decreased by 1.0%, and for export – by 1.6%, which is better than the reduction of 3.7% a month earlier.

EUR is declining against USD but has a positive trend against GBP and JPY.

The euro continues yesterday's trend and trades smoothly around the annual lows of 1.0000. Investors' forecasts for a slowdown in the consumer price index in France did not come true, and in August, it rose to 5.9% from 5.8%, while the indicator, harmonized with Eurozone standards, was 6.6%, below 6.8% in the previous period. Thus, all the region's leading economies reported inflation growth in August, and there is no doubt that tomorrow's composite index for the Eurozone countries will exceed the July value. Analysts expect it to lock in at 9.1%, but given the significant acceleration in prices in Germany, the actual value could show a more significant increase.

 

Oil quotes have a negative trend and fall to around 92.

The position of the Eurozone countries on the issue of energy security is deteriorating, and yesterday, the Financial Times newspaper reported that producers of shale oil and gas in the United States warned the Eurozone authorities about the impossibility of increasing fuel supplies to the region since American companies are physically unable to increase production of raw materials. Thus, the promise based on which the Eurozone countries so actively refused to purchase oil and gas from the Russian Federation will most likely not be fulfilled, and the Eurozone may face serious problems during the heating period. As for the local dynamics, it is mostly associated with another increase in the stocks of American oil, which, according to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), grew for the second week in a row, reaching 2.442M barrels.
 

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0000. After trying to consolidate above this level at the beginning of the current trading week, the "bulls" remain under strong pressure and prefer to wait for the publication of the US Federal Reserve's decision next week. The meeting of the American regulator will be held on September 20-21, and the interest rate can be increased in the range between 50 and 75 basis points. However, the markets have recently been actively discussing the possibility of correcting the value by 100 basis points at once, but the probability of such a scenario is estimated at about 25%. In addition, investors are waiting for the publication of European data on consumer prices for August. Current forecasts do not imply a noticeable decrease in the dynamics of inflation, which remains close to record highs at around 9.1%. Energy prices fell slightly, but this was fully offset by higher prices for food and durable goods. The day before, France reported on the dynamics of inflation in August. The Consumer Price Index, calculated according to the EU norm, slightly accelerated in August from 0.4% to 0.5% in monthly terms and from 6.5% to 6.6% in annual terms, which turned out to be worse than the analysts' neutral forecasts.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics, consolidating near the local lows of September 7. The GBPUSD pair is testing 1.1460 for a breakdown, preparing to end the trading session of the current week with a moderate decline. The positions of the pound remain under pressure amid the deterioration of the outlook for the British economy, suffering from high inflation rates. Wednesday's macroeconomic statistics reflected a slight decline in the Consumer Price Index in August from 10.1% to 9.9%, but this is still a high level, given the active "hawkish" policy on the part of the Bank of England. In addition, according to the forecasts of the regulator itself, the economy is one step away from a recession that could last the whole next year. Adding uncertainty to the market is the arrival of a new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, who will have to find a way out of an acute energy crisis and find additional funds to subsidize soaring utility bills. The next meeting of the Bank of England will be held next week. It was previously supposed to take place on September 15, but due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II, it was decided to postpone it for a week. It is assumed that the interest rate will be increased by 50 basis points to 2.25%.

 

XAUUSD
Gold prices practically do not change, consolidating near 1660. . The XAUUSD pair is holding near the record lows of April 2020, remaining under pressure from expectations about the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. At the meeting of the regulator, which will be held next week, the interest rate may be increased by 75 basis points. Moreover, given the inflation data released this week, some analysts believe that the Fed may decide to correct the value by 100 basis points at once. Recall that the Consumer Price Index in the US in August fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, while forecasts suggested a decline to 8.1%.