MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 14 AUGUST 2013: GERMAN OPTIMISM FUELS EURO ZONE DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments US Consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in seven months according to figures presented yesterday. The gauge in consumer spending indicates quicker economic growth, and would strengthen the case for the US Federal Reserve (FED) winding down it's USD 85 billion bond monthly bond buying program. Retail sales outside cars, gasoline and building materials rose 0.5 percent in July, in line with expectations. Consumer spending is the biggest driver in the US economy. A jump in Germany’s economic sentiment survey, dovetailed with a rise in the industrial output in the Euro zone, and the fastest rise in house prices in England in seven years, bolstered renewed optimism also in the European region yesterday. London’s FTSE, Germany’s DAX and the Paris CAC 40 indexes all climbed from 0.3 to 0.8 %, to lift the broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index to its highest level since mid May. US exchanges were rising on the retail figures yesterday after four losing sessions. EUR/USD stood at 1.3290 before the release of the US retail figures added to the case for a cut in the Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus already in September. The American Dollar is trading higher also in relation to Japanese Yen. USD/JPY is 98.01. Oil prices are up with Brent crude at USD 109.88 a barrel. Gold and Silver stay steady at the last few days higher levels. A renewed optimism in the Euro zone was yesterday reflected in the debt market. Yields on safe-haven German 10 year government bonds hit their highest level in six weeks. Risk premiums on Italian and Spanish bonds continued to ease. A general improvement In the EU economy seems to have taken place. The question is when positive signs of improvement will eventually take the Euro zone countries out recession and into sustainable economic growth. Gross Domestic (GDP) growth number expected to grow 0.2 % when the last quarterly report is published later on Wednesday. The Asian market opened Tuesday in strong positive territory, helped by the Chinese data presented on Monday morning. The weaker Yen caused the Nikkei stock exchange to jump 2.6 %. The other Asian bourses were also up. The positive momentum is expected to continue this morning. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 15 AUGUST 2013: US STOCKS DECLINE ON MACY’S SALES DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments The US stock indices fell last night after retailer 'Macy's Inc' quarterly results disappointed. This gave new urgency to investors debates on the timing and pace of reductions in the Federal Reserve’s (FED) bond purchases. The department store operator Macy’s shares fell 4.4 % leading to a loss in S&P. Also Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended in red territory after Macy’s disappointing sales. In Europe, both France and German economies grew faster than the United States in the second quarter of 2013, pulling the Euro zone out of its longest recession seen in years. The increased pace was primarily driven by renewed business and consumer spending in the two largest economies inside the Euro zone. The Euro zones economy continues, however, to be fragile with countries such as Spain and Italy struggling. The figures published on Wednesday show a 0.3 % growth. Austria and Finland also presented positive growth figures while the Cyprus economy contracted 1.4 % in the second quarter, after the international bailout in March. Laiki, the second biggest bank, was forced to close and the Bank of Cyprus and Hellenic Bank suffered heavy losses on big deposits. In spite of some positive signs inside the Euro zone, the economic and fiscal problems seen in the periphery and especially in Southern Europe indicate that the Euro zone is in for a bumpy and uneven recovery. The positive news from France and Germany had little impact on the currencies. EUR/USD traded at 1.3258 after an earlier high of 1.3278. Traders put stop/loss orders on 1.3230. A break could see a slip to 1.3155. The DXY Dollar basket was marginally down after climbing one percent since its low on August 8th. Oil prices fell during yesterday's session, but precious metals, Gold and Silver, demonstrate a clear, positive upward trend. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 16 AUGUST 2013: OIL JUMPS ON EGYPT UNREST DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments Oil prices jumped on the tense situation in the Middle East where at least 535 people were killed in a security crackdown in Egypt. Brent and NYMEX, New York crude, climbed to a four-month high on Thursday with Brent reaching USD 111 a barrel. The escalating violence in Egypt might affect the Suez Canal and spread all over a middle East already torn by a two year civil war in Syria, disturbing death tolls and unrest in Oil producing Iraq and Libya. Egypt has declared a state of emergency. Supporters of the deposed President Mursi have, nevertheless, announced new major demonstrations. Oil storages in the US are shrinking faster than expected. Egypt is a minor crude producer, but home of the strategically important Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. The deadly violence threatens to choke Oil supply routes and have serious consequences for steady Oil supplies from the Middle East. The Libyan Deputy Oil Minister stated on Thursday that Libya’s Oil production has been reduced by 600 000 barrels a day. Iraq expects to slash supplies with 600 000 barrels a day in September. US crude inventories fell 2.8 million barrels with stocks at the lowest level seen since 2012. As long as the situation in the Middle Eastern area is kept under some control, Brent doesn’t seem to have a potential to climb higher than to USD 113 – 114. Europe’s top Oil company, Royal Dutch Shell, has temporarily closed its offices in Egypt. The USD has come under new pressure on continued uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve (FED) might start to taper its bond buying program. Retailer Macy’s department store, delivered disappointing results on Wednesday, leading to new question marks regarding the healthiness and growth of the US economy. EUR/USD is at 1.3299 and USD/JPY trades at 98.15. Precious metals, Gold and Silver, have regained some of their safe-haven status and have steadied on levels not seen in months. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 19 AUGUST 2013: EQUITIES STRUGGLE – GOLD REACHES 1373 DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments While equities worldwide struggled against the US federal Reserve (FED) tapering concerns, Oil and Silver rallied at the end of last week. Gold rose to a two-month high on Friday. Silver saw its strongest weekly performance in five years with a 13 percent rise, strongly indicating that the wave of selling in precious metals over the last half year, has come to a temporary halt. Gold rose 50 Dollars during the week to hit a peak of USD 1373 a troy ounce. Precious metal prices were helped by a weaker Dollar. EUR/USD traded steadily above 1.33 during the week with good news coming from the Euro zone. Both France and Germany presented positive growth figures which, in spite of weak fundamentals, are interpreted as the Euro zone possibly coming out of recession. Data on Thursday showed that investors in Japan and China led large sell-offs in US treasuries, following FED's statements on tapering in June. China has, over the last half year, strongly increased its Gold holdings seemingly in an effort to diversify its investments in US treasuries. China is seen to have built up Gold reserves to become more independent of both USD and EUR. Both currencies are regarded as vulnerable. With eyes pointing towards the future – 10 – 20 years perspective – China seems interested in building up the Chinese currency as a competitive international reserve currency. Last week saw the first net inflow into Gold backed exchange traded funds, so called ETF's, sine 2012. ETF's sold 402 tonnes of Gold in the second quarter of 2013, double the Gold production of South Africa. Over the last few weeks, the number of Gold 'short positions' have been reduced. This is combined with a surge in Chinese Gold buying which rose 87 % from 2012 to 386 tonnes. Retail buying in India and central banks buying are also boosting Gold prices. Many traders remain, however, gloomy and ask how long the rally in precious metals will continue. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 20 AUGUST 2013: STEADY DOLLAR BEFORE FED MINUTES ON WEDNESDAY DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments The Dollar held steady on Monday as investors refrained from bets on the currency before the publication of the US Federal Reserves (FED) minutes on Wednesday. It is expected that the minutes might give a more clear indication on the pace and timing of FED’s plan to trim its bond buying program. Analyst consensus is that tapering could start in September. The Dollar index, DXY, was flat. EUR/USD trades at 1.3348 and USD/JPY is at 97.97. Higher yields on Dollar denominated bonds have made the Dollar more attractive over the last few days, but this has been blunted by a promising improvement in the Euro zone and UK economies which have underpinned the Euro and Sterling. Data last week showed that both the German and French economies were growing faster than expected in the second quarter. EU manufacturing and services data are going to be published on Thursday and give a more clear indication as to whether the Euro zone is pulling out of recession. The data will have an impact on the strength of the Euro, which is expected to falter against the Dollar in the upcoming trading sessions. That could mean that Dollar would start to attract demand against the Euro. The Dollar might also be in for a new test against the Japanese Yen. If the August 15th peak of 98.66 Yen is broken, there might be retest on the August high of 99.955 Yen. Oil and precious metal prices are keeping steady at the high levels seen on Friday. Brent trades at USD 110.55 a barrel and gold stands at USD 1376. Stock markets in Europe continue to be under pressure with France, Germany, and England indexes trading down. There was a weak start in the equity market in Asia with Asian Pacific index in red territory the first day of the week. The unrest in Egypt continues with new clashes between Mursi-supporters and the police, claiming an unconfirmed 1000 lives taken until now. US politicians claim there has been a halt in the US billion Dollar military help to Egypt. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 21 AUGUST 2013: FED SENDS MARKETS TO ONE MONTH LOW DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments World shares sank to their lowest level in more than a month after disappointing sessions in New York yesterday, along with disappointment when trading started in Asia on Tuesday morning. The sell off continued in Europe, and emerging markets saw funds pouring out. Global markets are worried and at unease with expected cuts in US Stimulus and related gains in bond yields, leading to investors being on edge. Oil and precious metal prices have fallen with the Dollar under pressure. EUR/USD stands at 1.3395. USD/JPY is at 97.29. European stocks were down with the French CAC as the biggest loser at minus 1.35 %. The FTSE London-index dropped 0.57 % while the German DAX was down 1.06 %. The Russian indices suffered similar losses. The losses in Europe are following a fourth day of straight falls on both Wall street and in Asia. India is also hit hard by a dramatic fall in the Rupee in relation to USD. The Japanese Nikkei fell 2.7 %. US Federal Reserve (FED) shall publish their minutes from the end of July meeting later on today. It is expected that the minutes could offer hints on when FED will start winding down its USD 85 billion-a-month bond buying program. Uncertainty regarding what is going to happen next has recently driven up bond market borrowing costs. This has sparked a sell off in riskier assets as stocks. Brent crude, which has been steady above USD 110 a barrel, fell below this level on Tuesday due to nervousness about the effect of a halt in monetary easing. Oil prices are, however, supported by export problems in Libya and the continued unrest in Egypt. Western powers are threatening to withdraw their economic assistance, but Saudi Arabia stated yesterday that they would step in to avoid any collapse of the Egyptian economy. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 22 AUGUST 2013: HOME SALES JUMP TO A 3-YEAR HIGH DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments On the eve of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) presentation of their monthly minutes, US home resales rose to their highest level in three years. Home sales for July suggested that a sharp increase in borrowing costs is only having a limited impact on the housing market recovery. Home sales jumped 6.5 % to an annual rate of 5.39 million units. Analysts previously forecasted a much smaller increase. The currencies fluctuated heavily during Wednesday before the FED minutes presentation. EUR/USD jumped above 1.34 and fell back to 1.3386 with major banks taking big short exposures, betting on a stronger Dollar and steep falls in both Euro and Yen. Emerging market currencies, especially in Asia, did fall rather dramatically against the USD in the last few days, with the Indian rupee being the big loser. Oil prices are relatively steady with Brent crude trading below USD 110. Gold rose to USD 1376, but lost ground before the FED minute presentation. Greece’s financial obligations are again under heavy scrutiny. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated on Tuesday that Greece would need a third bailout. His election campaign statement came the day before today’s arrival of the European Central Banks (ECB) officials to Athens, to scrutinize Greece’s progress in meeting its international bailout obligations. Since 2010 Greece has been bailed out with 240 million Euro's by the ECB, International Monetary Fund and European Union. Yields on Greek bonds rose immediately to new yearly highs after the Greek government tried to give the impression that a turnaround in the economy is starting to take place lately. Greece has, for the last 6 – 7 years, been through a dramatic recession. The austerity measures ordained by the “Troika” of ECB, IMF and EU, have created record high numbers of unemployment. The anti-austerity opposition was quick to seize on Schaeuble’s comments, pointing to yet another round of painful austerity. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 23 AUGUST 2013: MINUTES CREATE NEW UNCERTAINTY DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments The minutes from the end of July meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) which were published on Wednesday night, did not give markets the clarity they were looking for. The minutes repeat the same generalities markets have been fed with over the last half year. Tapering is going to come, but there is no clear time table for when FED will start to slow down their bond buying program. Whether it is going to start this autumn, or the first half of 2014, is still an open question. Everything hangs on the development of the American economy. Banks and financial institutions gambling on more clear guidance, were disappointed. The USD is gaining some ground against other currencies, and the yield on US bonds continue to raise. The Dollar DXY, a basket of six major currencies weighed against USD, was up 0.5 %. US treasury yields reached a two-year high of 2.936 percent. EUR/USD trades down at 1.3321. The Japanese Yen is weaker trading at 98.64 Yen a Dollar. Brent is steady around USD 110 a barrel. Gold trades at USD 1371. The higher yields have, over the last few weeks, led to a repatriation of funds back to the US from emerging markets, helping to support the Dollar which in short term looks very bullish. Tapering or termination of printing of the Dollar, shall mean tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates. Many emerging markets have big exposures in US Dollars and would be faced with big credit problems with a combination of increased interest rates and a stronger USD. The effects of this trend is already felt in Asia where the Indian rupee is under extreme downward pressure. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines are as strongly hit as Turkey. The Turkish lira has lost 4% against the Dollar only this month. Many analysts fear that Asian countries in a short time will be faced with the same financial and economic crisis as during the Asian crisis of the nineteen nineties. This would have a devastating effect also globally. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 26 AUGUST 2013: GOLD AND SILVER SKYROCKET DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments Gold and Silver skyrocketed on Friday. Gold added USD 21.70 and ended at 1397.80 after breaking through the 1400 level during the session. Silver added 4 % to close at 24.08 after trading as high as USD 24.24 an ounce. These quotations represent the highest seen for precious metals in weeks. The technical charts point to further gains. It is therefore greatly likely that the strength in prices will spill over into this week’s trading. A weaker than expected July 'new home sales' report, which decreased 5 % since June, created new bewilderment in the markets. The July minutes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) created new uncertainty regarding when FED will eventually start tapering its bond buying program of USD 85 Billion a month. This gave precious metals a strong boost. Gold broke out of the technical resistance in USD 1377 – 1380, helped by increased Silver prices on its way up. The disappointing housing numbers also had a negative impact on the Dollar. The new housing data gave rise to new speculations when tapering will start. September seems unlikely now and currency analysts are pointing to December as more realistic. It is generally believed that tapering of the central bank’s monetary easing would lead to an increase in interest rates and a stronger Dollar. The dollar basket, DXY, weighed against six major currencies, decreased. The Dollar lost ground against both the Yen and the Euro. EUR/USD climbed above 1.34 on the housing numbers. A second reading of German gross domestic product confirms that Europe’s biggest economy rose 0.7 % in July. This augurs good for Angela Merkel’s re-election opportunities in September, and for better perspective for growth in the Euro zone. Despite the temporary decrease in the Dollar, it is much more favoured by investors over the Yen for the rest of 2013. The Euro has also gained healthily against the Yen over the recent week. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 27 AUGUST 2013: DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DROP DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments Durable or capital goods orders in the United States dropped 7.3 % in July, and put new questions marks over the economy at the beginning of the third quarter. The demand for goods ranging from aircraft to computers and defence equipment, fell. This is the biggest decline since last August. The decline in durable goods are coming on the top of negative housing figures published last Friday, indicating a weaker housing market than expected. It is likely that the failing durable goods numbers will give rise to new speculations on when the US Federal Reserve (FED) will eventually start tapering its bond buying program. It has been indicated that tapering would start in December. Based on the latest figures it is unlikely that tapering might start earlier than at the end of 2013. The fall in durable goods orders had an immediate impact on stock futures. Also yield on US treasuries fell. Oil prices have continued to rise on the escalation of US involvement in Syria. Brent crude is trading close to USD 111 a barrel. US Defence secretary Chuck Hagel is reportedly going to discuss a possible military intervention in Syria with its British and French counterparts on the alleged use of chemical weapons. The possibility for a direct Western involvement could have serious impacts on the world stock markets and trigger the market to continue its present downward trend. The US Dollar traded down against Japanese Yen on Monday after new uncertainties arose as to when tapering will eventually start. USD/JPY trades at 98.42 Yen a Dollar. EUR/USD was flat during Monday at 1.3373. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 28 AUGUST 2013: OIL, GOLD AND SILVER SKYROCKET DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments Western warmongerings had Oil, Gold and Silver prices skyrocketing on Tuesday. US and allied envoys told rebels fighting Bashar-al-Assad that Western powers will attack Syria within days. The UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, stressed that the most likely day of attack is Thursday. Brent crude jumped by two Dollars USD 113.46 a barrel on the news. Gold and Silver continue to raise as safe havens. Gold reached USD 1420 adding new 25 Dollars during Tuesday’s trade. Silver trades at USD 24.65 up 20 % from levels seen only a couple of weeks ago. Syria is probably going to be attacked by cruise missiles in what Western observers say are aimed at teaching President Assad and Iran a “lesson” for defying the West. The aim is presumably not to turn the tide in the civil war, which, over the last few months, have given President Assad’s forces the upper hand. NATO air strikes changed the course of the Libyan civil war. The prelude to an eventual attack on Syria is a blue copy of the US and British invasion of Iraq and the NATO-bombings of Serbia in connection with the “liberation” of Kosovo. Along with Brent US crude, NYMEX, jumped to USD 108.50 a barrel. Western powers are taking a great gamble in attacking Syria. A military action in Syria might result in spreading chaos to the Oil-producing countries in the Middle East, in spite of the fact that Syria itself is not a major Oil producer. Libyan production has already dropped 60 % and down to 665 000 barrels a day. Key shipping routes for crude Oil such as Akaba and the Suez canal areas are well located in the area. A military action might also put stress on US Oil storages. Commercial crude stock piles were expected to have fallen last week due to heavy consumption of gas during the end of the holiday season. Increased oil prices would put added stress on a US economy considering to terminate using the money printing press by tapering the bond buying program. Data on homes sales and durable goods over the last two days, have shown that continued monetary easing might be necessary to keep growth and the economy on the right track. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 29 AUGUST 2013: OIL HITS SIX- MONTH HIGH DAILY MARKET REVIEWS by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments Oil prices hit a six-month high as shares fell on fears of a military attack on Syria. Especially emerging markets assets were hit hard and world shares slid for a second day in row. Investors were seeking safe haven investments and Gold has been shining over the last few days. Gold prices reached USD 1430, but fell back to 1418 an ounce. Brent crude reached USD 117 a barrel on Wednesday morning, but fell back to 115 levels. Neighbouring Turkey, which has stated its willingness to support a military action against the Assad-regime without approval from the UN security Council, is one of the emerging markets hardest hit by the uncertainty. Both the Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee fell to new record lows against the Dollar. The USD has traded steady against the Euro at 1.3336 , but has fallen below 98 Yen a Dollar against the Japanese Yen, trading at 97.63. Even if the real effects on the markets on an eventual hit against Syria remain uncertain, Oil analysts are speculating that Oil prices could jump as high as USD 125 a barrel. New York crude, NYMNEX, was trading at the highest level seen in a year when it jumped to USD 111. It has since fallen back to below USD 110. Worries over Syria largely shrugged off investor’s concern about euro zone bank lending contracting in July. This highlighted the euro zone’s nascent recovery and might keep pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain an expansive monetary policy. The British Pound slipped both against the Dollar and the Euro. Bank of England reaffirmed its attention to keep interest rates low until 2016. The condition for a rise in interest rate is, according to new Governor, Mark Carney, that unemployment falls to 7%, a similar goal set by the US FED. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 03 SEPTEMBER 2013: SEPTEMBER IS GOING TO BRING TURBULENCE TO CURRENCY MARKETS. DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the European stock markets showed positive dynamics. The French CAC index which has grown by 1.84%, became the leader of growth. The stock market in the USA was closed in connection with the Labor Day celebrations. This morning, support to the world markets was given by positive data from China. The index of business activity in the production sector of China, counted by the national bureau of statistics of the country, grew in August to 51 points comparable to 50.3 points the month before. The similar index counted by HSBC bank, grew in August to 50.1 points in comparison with 47.7 points the month before. Statistics coming from other countries had, in general, mixed characters. The index of business activity in the production sector of Germany grew in August to 51.8 points in comparison with 50.7 points the month before. Analysts expected index growth to 52 points. In France, the similar index didn't change in comparison with the previous month, and made 49.7 points that coincided with expectations of analysts. As a whole, in the Euro zone the index grew to 51.4 points in comparison to 50.3 points in July, however, growth to 51.3 points was expected. This data was giving support to the Euro during the trading session. As a result, EUR/USD pair opened the day on a level of 1.3211, grew to 1.3226, and then was rolled away to a day minimum of 1.3183, having finished the trading session nearby. It is necessary to realize that September will be a very important month for the currency markets: all investors returned from summer holiday, trade volumes returned to normal, and the economic calendar is full of very important events. Amongst them, elections in Australia, appointed to September 7; increase of the consumer tax in Japan; the solution of the question on a ceiling of the national debt of the USA; elections in Germany (on September 22) and, naturally, FOMC meeting on monetary policy, planned for September 18-19. It will have the greatest value for currencies, and the current week will help investors to be defined, whether to wait from the regulator turning of the program of stimulation. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 04 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE SYRIAN FACTOR REMAINS DOMINATING IN THE MARKET DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. The Syrian Factor Remains Dominating in the Market News lines are already glistening with various headings. Limiting factor for the world markets is the quite intense international situation concerning Syria. As it became known, the U.S. President Barack Obama got support of a number of key figures in the American congress in a question of drawing a military blow to Syria. The vote on this matter in the congress will take place next week. In addition to this, on Tuesday morning there were messages that ballistic missiles were tested in the Mediterranean Sea. The news at the time provoked speculative growth in the Oil market, even in spite of the fact that as a result the Pentagon declared that rocket tests aren't connected with possible operations in Syria, as they were already planned a long time ago (together with Israel). The price for Brent reached 115.68$ per barrel, and the price for Light was on a level of 108.54$ per barrel. This morning, we can see Brent traded on a price of 113.78$ per barrel, and Light on a level of 107.54$ per barrel, just with a slight decrease. The EUR/USD pair also became a victim of market fears, which supported sales. The release of data on business activity in the manufacturing industry of the USA became an additional factor of pressure. So, the currency pair from the level of opening at 1.3188 dropped to a minimum of 1.3143 and finished the trading day closely to 1.3165. The Euro zone will publish a series of data today on business activity in the services sector. The indicator can continue to show growth, maintaining hopes of investors of a more aggressive speech from the head of the European Central Bank during a press conference after the meeting. In that case it is possible to wait for a kickback of EUR/USD from 1.3150, with probability of breakdown 1.32 and the further purpose on 1.3230. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 05 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE BANK OF JAPAN LEFT MONETARY POLICY WITHOUT CHANGES DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Asian stock markets are not receiving any accurate impulses for long-term movement in the market, that is why indexes in general are moving in a different direction. Today we also can see multi-directional dynamics in the market. The worse indexes are looking so far like the index of continental China SSE, the Australian ASX, and also Japanese Nikkei. Today's meeting of the Central Bank of Japan ended with the regulator deciding to leave the current monetary policy without change, having raised an assessment of the state of the economy for the first time in 2 months. There have already been offers from some board members to make the target rate of inflation more flexible, and not to go so strictly with the rate on 2%. The Japanese Yen practically didn't react to these statements, having continued to bargain under level 100 against the American Dollar, and the stock market started decreasing gradually. Meanwhile, the hi-tech exporting companies, which are most sensitive to a rate of national currency, today mainly grew, so Sony, Pioneer and Toshiba add about 1.2%. In the meantime in the USA, the stock market finished yesterday’s trading session with an increase in the price of the main indexes. The reasons for that were the improvement of macroeconomic realities in the Euro zone and the USA, and also an increase in demand for shares of auto makers and the hi-tech companies. The revised data on gross domestic product of the Euro zone confirmed 0.3% growth of the economy of the region in the 2nd quarter, having a strengthened impression of the favorable data published the other day on the industry in Europe. In the USA, according to the report of the Beige book, the industry grew, and consumers began to spend more for entertainment, in particular, on tourism. The vote of the Committee of foreign affairs at the Senate, in favor of a limited military blow to Syria, didn't scare investors. Let's note that the final decision will be made, most likely, in a few days. The price for Oil stabilized slightly and decreased in comparison to the last few days. Brent is traded on a level of 113.37$ per barrel, and Light is traded on a level of 106.63$ per barrel. Today investors will be waiting for the conference of Mr.Dragi and the unemployment figures from the USA. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 06 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE RELEASE OF STRONG DATA FROM THE USA STRENGTHENED SALES OF EURO DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Statistical data presented yesterday in America had a more considerable impact on the market than the meetings of two main Central Banks! As a result, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with small growth of the main indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0.04% to the level of 14937.50 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.12% to a price of 1655.08 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to plus on 0.27% and reached a point of 3658.78. Strong macroeconomic data from the USA, in addition to the press conference of Mr. Dragi, became the last straw, and if the currency pair in the morning tried to keep next to the level 1.32 – it was unsuccessful, dropping to a local minimum on the level of 1.3109. Dragi began his speech with discussions on slights signs of recovery in the economy, but summed up by declaring that hard times have not yet passed. Moreover, he confirmed that it is impossible to exclude the need of lower rates. Tension around the 'Syrian' question continues to grow. Accusations of attempted murder of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Egypt, confirms that all of the Middle East, not only Syria, is experiencing internal problems. It only maintains demand for the US Dollar, which is so popular in anticipation of the report on "non-farm” payrolls. In the commodity market, Brent is traded on a level of 113.49$ per barrel, and Light reached 107.63$ per barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX, yesterday fell in the price by 1.22% to the level of 1373.00$ for troy ounce, and this morning is traded on a level of 1371.56$. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 09 SEPTEMBER 2013: DECISION ON SYRIA CAN BRING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Last week was full of macroeconomic statistical data, which has been bringing turbulence on the markets and we have witnessed quite different movements in the stock and currency markets of late. Despite the fact that trading session in the American stock market has been rather volatile, indexes finished almost on the levels they began. Dow Jones dropped for 0.10% and reached 14922.50, Nasdaq added 0.03% and closed the session on the level of 3660.01 and S&P500 increased for 0.01% and closed the session on 1655.17. The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7% and 58.6%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies. The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172. This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 10 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE USA IS READY TO POSTPONE MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST SYRIA DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Today the market will be more nervous than it was on Monday - the USA is ready to accept Russia's offer and to postpone military operation against Syria, if Syria will agree to transfer it's chemical weapons over to international control. Based on this news and these discussions, prices of Oil are falling. Brent is traded this morning on 111.47$ per barrel and Light has reached level of 107.46$. Both oil brands are losing around 1% in price. Nevertheless, the latest events are only a temporary break before the situation will continue to develop, according to a new scenario. Meanwhile, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main indexes, the Dow Jones index recorded the greatest increase from the middle of July, having added 0.94%. Nasdaq and S&P500 added 1.26% and 0.99% accordingly. Mainly all the stock markets were growing on Chinese optimism. To remind you, the surplus of the chinese trade balance made $28.61 billion in comparison with average market expectations at the level of $20 billion. The improvement is welcomed by investors, and even the possible war in Syria doesnt seem it will effect further investment in markets. Another interesting development we can see is in the development of the EUR/USD currency pair. USD felt under pressure after the index of business moods of Sentix grew to 6.5, instead of the predicted fall to 4.0, having showed the maximum indicator since May, 2011. The Euro went above the level of 1.32, reaching a 1.3280 high during the American trading session, and closing the day on around 1.3260. This morning, the Dollar is trying to win back lost positions and is strengthening towards the Euro, traded on a level of 1.3246. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAYZUS.Neeraj Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 11 September 2013: Berlusconi’s Threats Attract Attention Of Investors DAILY MARKET REVIEWS By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department. Yesterday stock markets of the United States of America finished the trading session on a positive note due to support given by statements of the Prime Minister of Syria, and statistics from China, which appeared to be better than the average expectations of analysts. The Prime Minister of Syria, Wael al-Halki, declared that his country agreed to the offer from Russia to transfer all Syrian chemical weapons under international control, having officially agreed, thus, on chemical disarmament. The market apprehended this news, taking into consideration the speech of the US Secretary of State, John Kerri, who noted that Assad can avoid military intervention if he transfers all chemical weapons to the international community within the next week. As for Chinese statistics, according to the presented data, retails increased in August by 13.4%, whilst an increase of only 13.2% had been predicted. Industrial production in August increased by 10.4%, which exceeded forecasts of analysts of 9.9%. Following the results of yesterday's trading session - the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, got stronger 0.85%, and closed on the level of 15 191,06 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 increased 0.73% to the level of 1 683.99 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, added 0.62% reaching 3 729.02 points. As the Syrian question has been put on hold, prices of Oil of brand Light, started to decrease in price, reaching the price of 106.16$ per barrel this morning . Brent adds 0.10% and is traded on a level of 110.13$. Gold is stable on 1367.09$. While the economic calendar lacks statistical data, attention of investors is now drawn to the subject in relation to Berlusconi and his party. It is an important subject, as Italy is the third largest economy in the 17 member Eurozone, and if a crisis will begin within the country, echoes will be heard throughout the region. Secondly, the threat of the politician to convince the party to stop government support is dangerous, due to the fact that the coalition government of the current Prime Minister won't be able to continue work. If there is a Parliament collapse, the need of carrying out new elections will lead to new expenses, and instability in Italy. Berlusconi didn't voice the decision yet, but can make it at any time, therefore the EUR/USD trades very carefully. Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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