OctaFX_Farid Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 GBP traders anxious ahead of BoE Quarterly Inflation Report release - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - Economist and Lead European Editor Pablo Piovano points out that tension is rising among GBP traders ahead of the release of BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report due out on Wednesday. Key quotes "Traders will look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike, and investors will scrutinize anything in connection with that ‘slack’ that prevent the BoE to be the first of the G4 central banks to hike rates." "In the meantime, waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging Cable from multi-year peaks in levels just shy of 1.7200 the figure to this week’s lows in levels last seen in early June, around the mid-1.6700s." "The renewed USD strength has been collaborating with the downside as well, bolstered by a firmer momentum in the US economy." "Levels-wise, the initial hurdle remains 1.6800 ahead of August top at 1.6890; the interim support lines up at 1.6750 followed by June low at 1.6698." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD: Will the BoE make any difference? - FXStreet FXStreet (Córdoba) - Pablo Piovano, editor at FXStreet, commented that waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging GBP/USD from multi-year peaks to levels sub-1.6800. In this line, tomorrow's Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE will take special attention as investors look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike. Key Quotes “In light of tomorrow’s Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE, traders will look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike, and investors will scrutinize anything in connection with that ‘slack’ that prevent the BoE to be the first of the G4 central banks to hike rates”. “In the meantime, waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging Cable from multi-year peaks in levels just shy of 1.7200 the figure to this week’s lows in levels last seen in early June, around the mid-1.6700s”. “The renewed USD strength has been collaborating with the downside as well, bolstered by a firmer momentum in the US economy”. “Levels-wise, the initial hurdle remains 1.6800 ahead of August top at 1.6890; the interim support lines up at 1.6750 followed by June low at 1.6698”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD: Will the BoE make any difference? - FXStreet FXStreet (Córdoba) - Pablo Piovano, editor at FXStreet, commented that waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging GBP/USD from multi-year peaks to levels sub-1.6800. In this line, tomorrow's Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE will take special attention as investors look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike. Key Quotes “In light of tomorrow’s Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE, traders will look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike, and investors will scrutinize anything in connection with that ‘slack’ that prevent the BoE to be the first of the G4 central banks to hike rates”. “In the meantime, waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging Cable from multi-year peaks in levels just shy of 1.7200 the figure to this week’s lows in levels last seen in early June, around the mid-1.6700s”. “The renewed USD strength has been collaborating with the downside as well, bolstered by a firmer momentum in the US economy”. “Levels-wise, the initial hurdle remains 1.6800 ahead of August top at 1.6890; the interim support lines up at 1.6750 followed by June low at 1.6698”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates NZD/USD trims losses after hitting 2-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD fell sharply during the Asian session and bottomed at 0.8406, reaching the lowest price since June 4 afterwards rebounded and trimmed losses. Currently trades at 0.8437, down 0.25% for the day. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 0.8440. Price was able to rise back above previous lows, avoiding so far a daily close at the lowest level since March. NZD/USD levels to consider To the downside, the key support area is located around 0.8400/10; and below here support might lie at 0.8380 and then 0.8345. To the upside, resistance is seen at 0.8440 (intraday level) and above here at 0.8455 followed by 0.8475 (August 11 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates NZD/USD trims losses after hitting 2-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD fell sharply during the Asian session and bottomed at 0.8406, reaching the lowest price since June 4 afterwards rebounded and trimmed losses. Currently trades at 0.8437, down 0.25% for the day. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 0.8440. Price was able to rise back above previous lows, avoiding so far a daily close at the lowest level since March. NZD/USD levels to consider To the downside, the key support area is located around 0.8400/10; and below here support might lie at 0.8380 and then 0.8345. To the upside, resistance is seen at 0.8440 (intraday level) and above here at 0.8455 followed by 0.8475 (August 11 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 GBP/USD taking on 1.68 but still bearish FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6812, up 0.15% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6817 and low at 1.6757. Despite the progression today back onto the 1.68 handle, Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank evaluated that the GBP/USD short‐term technical are indeed bearish. “Support lies at the 200‐day MA at 1.6658 and resistance lies at the 100‐day of 1.6880. The longer‐term technical GBP outlook is turning increasingly bearish, with the currency having broken several levels of support, including its year‐long upward trend line. See chart." GBP/USD Levels Spot is presently trading at 1.6812, and next resistance can be seen at 1.6817 (Daily High), 1.6826 (Daily Classic R3), 1.6835 (Hourly 200 SMA), 1.6853 (Weekly Classic R1) and 1.6877 (Daily 100 SMA). Support below can be found at 1.6810 (Weekly Classic PP), 1.6808 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.6799 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.6797 (Yesterday's High). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, signaled the situation en Ukraine continues to be a critical factor for markets’ sentiment. Key Quotes “Yesterday most equities declined as uncertainty about Ukraine returned after Russia sent 280 trucks carrying what it said was humanitarian aid for eastern Ukraine”. “Kiev said any unilateral attempt to deliver aid would be viewed as an act of aggression”. “The risk sentiment was affected by a new decline in the German ZEW expectations”. “Despite the recent weakness in data, Bundesbank President Weidmann said yesterday that the central bank sticks more or less to its forecast (GDP of 1.9% in 2014 and 2% in 2015)”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 13, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in July: Actual (0%) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 13, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD jumps to 1.3400 post US retail sales FXStreet (San Francisco) - the Euro accelerates its gains versus the US Dollar as the pair reacted positive after the weaker than expected US retail sales data. The EUR/USD jumped around 50 pips post data to trade above the 1.3400 area and price t daily highs around 1.3405. US dollar is trading under pressure as data, unchanged in July, was below 0.2% rise expected by market. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3398, up 0.22% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3407 and low at 1.3342. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment "Small offers are seen at 1.3495/00 but another batch of stops are seen just above that level. If triggered, the familiar 1.3430/50 zone becomes the next battle ground," Jamie Coleman from FXBeat comments. "A move through that area should prompt a test of the downtrend at 1.3480." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 13, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD jumps to 1.3400 post US retail sales FXStreet (San Francisco) - the Euro accelerates its gains versus the US Dollar as the pair reacted positive after the weaker than expected US retail sales data. The EUR/USD jumped around 50 pips post data to trade above the 1.3400 area and price t daily highs around 1.3405. US dollar is trading under pressure as data, unchanged in July, was below 0.2% rise expected by market. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3398, up 0.22% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3407 and low at 1.3342. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment "Small offers are seen at 1.3495/00 but another batch of stops are seen just above that level. If triggered, the familiar 1.3430/50 zone becomes the next battle ground," Jamie Coleman from FXBeat comments. "A move through that area should prompt a test of the downtrend at 1.3480." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 13, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Adjustments to CPI projections the highlight of BoE's August Inflation Report - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - The RBS team of analysts believe that the most important takeaway from the BoE August Inflation Report was the fact that the MPC lowered the inflation forecast at 2-year point (1.77% from 1.89%) and barely altered at 3-year point (1.96% vs 1.95%). Key quotes "So a slightly larger undershoot over the policy-sensitive 2-3 year forecast period as a whole, but an essentially unchanged/at-target forecast at 3-years." "There was no change to the (neutral) skew of the forecast." "Overall, this gives the Report a marginally dovish feel. " "At any rate, had the MPC been materially closer to raising Bank Rate then we would have expected a higher CPI projection." "A high degree of uncertainty surrounds the timing of the first hike but we feel marginally more confident about our forecast for the first Bank Rate rise to come in February 2015 than we had done prior to the August Report." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 13, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 Poland Net Inflation: 0.4% (July) vs previous 1% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Export Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (-0.2%) in July: Actual (0%) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Initial Jobless Claims up to 311K in August 8 from previous 289K Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Export Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.8% in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD clings to gains after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD trades near daily highs above 0.9300, holding onto gains and extending its recovery into a third consecutive day, despite a quick, short-lived drop seen after a series of US data. US initial jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 311,000 in the week ending August 9, versus 295,000 expected. Meanwhile, import price index fell 0.2% in July versus a 0.4% drop forecasted. The pair fall to a session low of 0.9299 but quickly bounced after the latest string of US data. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 1-week highs around 0.9320, recording a 0.19% gain on the day. The AUD/USD is taking advantage of broad-based greenback weakness and extending its recovery from multi-week lows scored last Friday at the 0.9240 zone. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 EUR/USD reacts to the upside after data; 1.3400 on focus FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro is currently trading higher against the US Dollar as the pair reacted positive following the import and export price indexes and jobless claims in the US. The EUR/USD jumped around 20 pips from 1.3370 to trade at 1.3390 as the pair is attempting to test the 1.3400 level again. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3386, up 0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3397 and low at 1.3348. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. Jobless claims rises to 311K in Aug 8 week; highest since June. Export prices remained unchanged in July from June while import prices declined 0.2% versus 0.4% drop expected. EUR/USD sentiment "To my mind," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat, "the fact that the rallies are falling short of important technical levels like 1.3445 and 1.3480/1.3500 suggest that the market remains bearish overall." Coleman affirms that "it feels to me like the market is getting into better balance, with shorts being pared back, but without rising very far." Next resistance is 1.3395 ahead of 1.3400, then 1.3415 is the frontier. On he downside, support are at 1.3370, 1.3350 and 1.3335. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD recovers ground but remains vulnerable FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD managed to bounce from fresh 4-month lows and erased intraday gains as the dollar weakens across the board amid falling US yields. However, the pound follows the greenback among the worst performers Thursday, as the British currency continues to suffer on the back of BoE dovish shift. The GBP/USD has been unable to regain the 1.6700 psychological level, and it is currently trading at 1.6690, virtually unchanged on Thursday. GBP/USD levels to watch In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.6700 (psychological level), 1.6755 (Aug 12 low) and 1.6799/1.6800 (10-day SMA/psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6656 (200-day SMA/Aug 14 low) and the 1.6602/00 area (Apr 8 low/psychological level) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Dollar lower across the board - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that the dollar remains weak on Thursday, falling after the rise in US jobless claims. Key quotes "The EUR/USD trades near its daily high of 1.3403, and with the hourly chart showing price advancing above its moving averages while indicators head north in positive territory, supporting the upward strength." "In the 4 hours chart price advances above its 20 SMA that remains flat around 1.3370, while momentum grinds higher above its midline, supporting the shorter term view." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD fresh lows likely before recovery - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, strategist at Scotiabank, said they expect the GBP/USD to eventually recover and retrace some of its weakness, but in the near-term fresh lows are likely. Key Quotes “GBP is weak, having dropped to a fresh multi‐month low and flirting with its 200‐day MA at 1.6664. The market is still adjusting to yesterday’s less hawkish BoE comments leaving GBP notably weak on all its crosses”. “Profit taking on long GBP positions has been an ongoing trend over the last several weeks (CFTC data suggest that the peak gross long was mid‐June); while the options markets have been pricing for the risk of GBP downside since early July”. “We expect GBP to eventually recover and retrace some of its weakness; however for the near‐term we are likely to see fresh lows first”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 14, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 USD/JPY jumps to 10-day highs at 102.70 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY advanced 20 pips post-US data from 102.55 area to break above 102.60 and to trade at highs since August 5 at 102.73. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.67, up 0.21% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.73 and low at 102.44. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. PPI rose 0.1% MoM during July; +1.7% YoY. NY empire state manufacturing index declined more than expected to 14.69 in July; lowest since April. USD/JPY levels In terms of options expiring in the NY cut, there are orders at 101.80/85 ($200 mln), 102.00 ($100 mln), 102.25 ($100 mln), 102.50 ($150 mln), 103.00, ($220 mln) and 103.50 ($455 mln) as FXBeat informed earlier in the day. If the pair broke above the 102.70 area, it will fce resistances at 102.80 and 103.00. On the downside, 102.60 becomes as the first support ahead of 102.45 and 102.30. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook. Key quotes "The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical." "While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention." "In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual." "At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook. Key quotes "The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical." "While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention." "In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual." "At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD SecuritiesFXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook. Key quotes"The theme of this years conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical.""While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention.""In the UK in particular, theres an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual.""At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official pageAug 15, 2014OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook. Key quotes "The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical." "While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention." "In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual." "At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD steady in the lows for week FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6687, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6703 and low at 1.6677. GBP/USD is steady in the lows for the week and as analysts at Rabobank noted, if there is was one take-away from the Inflation Report this week is that there is no real pressure on the BoE to hike rates until wages push higher. “It is difficult to argue this point. We would therefore suggest that the message from the Bank is fairly clear. That said, evaluating the outlook for wage changes could yet be contentious. The lack of wage inflation has surprised most economists this year and, in light of the fairly rapid drop in the unemployment rate, no doubt there will be some forecasters expecting wage growth to accelerate in the near–term. In fact the minutes of the July policy meeting concede that “some survey indicators of wage growth has already picked up materially”. GBP/USD hourly levels Spot is presently trading at 1.6688, and next resistance can be seen at 1.6690 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6699 (Yesterday's High), 1.6703 (Daily High), 1.6704 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.6723 (Daily Classic R2). Support below can be found at 1.6686 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.6680 (Daily Classic PP). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US stocks falls amid tensions in Ukraine FXStreet (Córdoba) - Equities in Wall Street started the day with gains but following reports about an escalation of tensions Ukraine turned sharply to the downside. European markets also suffered and erased gains in the last hours of trade. The FTSE 100 finished slightly higher, with a gain of 0.06% at 6,689 far from 6,740 (daily high) while the Dax lost 1.43% and the Cac 40 declined 0.75%. In The US, the Dow Jones was falling 0.55% while the S&P 500 was down 0.37%. The US dollar was mixed in the currency market where the Swiss Franc was rising. On a volatile day, gold was trading above $1,300 after falling to $1,293 while crude oil was rising more than 1%, trading near $97.00 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD consolidating while on the offer sub key 1.6825 FXStreet (Córdoba) - Equities in Wall Street started the day with gains but following reports about an escalation of tensions Ukraine turned sharply to the downside. European markets also suffered and erased gains in the last hours of trade. The FTSE 100 finished slightly higher, with a gain of 0.06% at 6,689 far from 6,740 (daily high) while the Dax lost 1.43% and the Cac 40 declined 0.75%. In The US, the Dow Jones was falling 0.55% while the S&P 500 was down 0.37%. The US dollar was mixed in the currency market where the Swiss Franc was rising. On a volatile day, gold was trading above $1,300 after falling to $1,293 while crude oil was rising more than 1%, trading near $97.00 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 15, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 Refugee convoy in Ukraine suffers missile attack FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions is Ukraine do not subside at the beginning of the week, with the Ukrainian military reporting that a refugee bus convoy has been struck by a missile. The attack, which took place close to the city of Luhansk, has most probably been carried out by Russian separatists, although their leader denies the accusations. Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said that nine Ukrainian troops have been killed in clashes with separatists over the last 24 hours. He stressed that Russia amassed 45000 troops on the border with Ukraine. The talks on the situation in Ukraine held between foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France on Sunday failed to bring an agreement on a ceasefire. "Our Ukrainian counterparts, unfortunately, continue setting conditions - and rather vague ones at that - including, as they say, the establishment of an impenetrable border," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Nevertheless, he informed that an agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the Red Cross was struck on the issue of the controversial Russian aid convoy to Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been invited to hold talks on the Ukraine situation in Kiev on Saturday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: USD little changed ahead of key events this week FXStreet (Córdoba) - A quiet European session to start the week, with the USD broadly unchanged within familiar ranges, as investors remain sidelined ahead of big events this week. The calendar is pretty light for today but data flow picks up tomorrow with the US releasing housing and inflation data. Then Wednesday the Fed will publish last meeting’s minutes and finally the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole is scheduled for Friday. The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3380 but bounced to the 1.3400 area afterwards. The GBP/USD started the week a tad higher and consolidates around 1.6730 after comments from BoE Governor Carney over the weekend. The USD/JPY edged higher to the 102.40 zone on easing geopolitical concerns. Currencies linked to commodities were broadly unchanged. In Europe, stocks were posting big gains, with regional indexes around 1% up, underpinned by better risk sentiment. Gold was down 0.2% at $1,303 an ounce while crude oil lost nearly 1.0% to $96.37 a barrel. Main Headlines in Europe: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank European stocks open with sharp gains as concerns ease Fed minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium US highlights this week - BNZ EMU: Trade surplus n.s.a. widens against forecasts in June Barclays: All eyes on Jackson Hole - eFXnews OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Yellen unlikely to support the greenback – BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, expects the USD to weaken in the very short term. Key Quotes "Fed Chair Yellen’s speech unlikely to support US dollar The foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable in the Asian trading session. After strengthening modestly in July, the US dollar has since stabilized so far in August with the dollar index failing to break decisively above resistance at around the 81.50 level." "The US dollar has lost upward momentum alongside the fall back in US yields which has been partially offset by lower yields outside of the US as well. The two-year US Treasury bond yield has declined sharply from a peak of 0.58% at the end of July to 0.41% at the end of last week." "The main focus in the week ahead from the US will be a keynote speech from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. The title of the speech is “Labour Markets” which is one of Fed Chair Yellen’s specialist subjects." "We do not expect the speech to signal a shift in the Fed’ s monetary policy stance and is more likely to explore in more detail their views on the labour market from their last monetary policy meeting at the end of July. The Fed signalled at their last meeting that labour market conditions have improved. However, a range of labour market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labour resources." "Fed Chair Yellen is also viewed as being at the more dovish spectrum of the Fed especially with regards to the amount of slack still in the labour market. As such Fed Chair Yellen’s speech is unlikely to prove supportive for the US dollar in the near-term signalling that there is still plenty time before the Fed needs to begin tightening monetary policy despite strengthening labour market conditions." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Yellen unlikely to support the greenback – BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, expects the USD to weaken in the very short term. Key Quotes "Fed Chair Yellen’s speech unlikely to support US dollar The foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable in the Asian trading session. After strengthening modestly in July, the US dollar has since stabilized so far in August with the dollar index failing to break decisively above resistance at around the 81.50 level." "The US dollar has lost upward momentum alongside the fall back in US yields which has been partially offset by lower yields outside of the US as well. The two-year US Treasury bond yield has declined sharply from a peak of 0.58% at the end of July to 0.41% at the end of last week." "The main focus in the week ahead from the US will be a keynote speech from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. The title of the speech is “Labour Markets” which is one of Fed Chair Yellen’s specialist subjects." "We do not expect the speech to signal a shift in the Fed’ s monetary policy stance and is more likely to explore in more detail their views on the labour market from their last monetary policy meeting at the end of July. The Fed signalled at their last meeting that labour market conditions have improved. However, a range of labour market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labour resources." "Fed Chair Yellen is also viewed as being at the more dovish spectrum of the Fed especially with regards to the amount of slack still in the labour market. As such Fed Chair Yellen’s speech is unlikely to prove supportive for the US dollar in the near-term signalling that there is still plenty time before the Fed needs to begin tightening monetary policy despite strengthening labour market conditions." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/CHF negative below 1.2178 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling bias will prevail in the cross while below the 1.2178 level, observed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “EUR/CHF dipped to 1.2087 on Friday, a level last seen in December 2012”. “In case of a drop through it being seen the November 2012 low at 1.2030 will be targeted”. “For today we expect it to stabilise around the 1.2101 March low”. “EUR/CHF will considered to be negative while trading below the 1.2178 late July high”. “Initial resistance comes in around the 1.2133 early July low with more resistance coming in around the 55 day moving average at 1.2158”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 Norges Bank could revise up its rate path – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief Analyst Thomas Harr at Danske Bank thinks the Nordinc central bank could revise its rate path higher in the next monetary policy meeting. Key Quotes “We expect NB to revise the rate path upwards at the next monetary policy meeting on 18 September”. “NB currently says that rates will be kept at the current level until the end of 2015 followed by a ‘gradual rise’ and that it sees a 30% probability of a rate cut over the next year”. “The new rate path might remove the probability of a rate cut, bring forward the first rate hike and make the gradual rise in rates in 2016-17 less gradual”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US: NAHB Housing Market Index up to 55 August FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/NZD resistance level at 1.9735 tested - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 EUR/USD around 1.3350, US docket eyed FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is trading on the back footing on Tuesday, taking the EUR/USD to the area of 1.3350. EUR/USD focus on US CPI Spot continues to trade in the broader 1.3330-1.3450 range, looking for any catalysts to break the pattern either way. Ahead in the day, US consumer prices are due with consensus expecting headline CPI to have increased 2.0% in a year to July, a tad lower than June’s 2.1%; further data will also bring Housing Starts (0.970M exp.) and Building Permits (1.0M exp.). “Our optimal scenario is for price to continue respecting a bearish consolidation (triangle) on the daily chart, which will point to a resumption of the underlying trend lower on a break under 1.3340. Gains through the low 1.34s will raise the risk of a squeeze higher through the upper 1.34/low 1.35 zone, however”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. EUR/USD significant levels The pair is now losing 0.11% at 1.3347 and a breakdown of 1.3336 (low Aug.12) would target 1.3333 (2014 low Aug.6) en route to 1.3318 (low Nov.8 2013). On the upside, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1.3399 (high Aug.18) followed by 1.3415 (200-w MA) and finally 1.3416 (high Aug.13). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 US: CPI (Jul) rose 2.0% FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour informed that US consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 2.0% during July, banging on estimates. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.9% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD hits fresh 2014 lows after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD fell to fresh year-to-date lows after the latest series of US inflation and housing data. Although inflation figures were in line with expectations, housing starts jumped to the highest level in 8 months, indicating a pick up in building. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market’s expectations. Separated data showed housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted. The dollar strengthened broadly and dragged the EUR/USD to fresh 2014 lows as stops were triggered. The pair rushed to a low of 1.3319 so far and it was last down 0.24% at 1.3330. EUR/USD technical levels As for technical levels, next supports are now seen at 1.3295 (Nov 7 2013 low), 1.3250 (mid-September 2013 lows) and 1.3230 (Sep 10 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.3400 (psychological level), 1.3411/14 (Aug 13 & 15 highs) y 1.3432 (Aug 8 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD back to 1.0900 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD quickly faded the spike to fresh highs just below 1.0920 in the wake of the US data releases. USD/CAD tests fresh highs on US data Spot posted fresh 3-day highs after the US consumer prices advanced 2.0% in a year to July, in line with market forecasts. Core prices rose 1.9% over the last twelve months, in line with estimates and previous print. Further data showed both Building Permits and Housing Starts surpassing expectations at 1.052M and 1.093 M, respectively. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “Having found firm support late last week around the 200-day MA, USDCAD really needs to make a little clearer headway through the low 1.09 area if it is to stabilize—and improve further – from a technical point of view… We look for support at 1.0890/95 today to provide a base for funds to retest 1.0950 in the days ahead”. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is advancing 0.17% at 1.0906 facing the next hurdle at 1.0919 (high Aug.15) followed by 1.0921 (high Aug.14) and finally 1.0941 (high Aug.13). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0868 (200-d MA) would open the door to 1.0861 (low Aug.15) and then 1.0808 (Kijun). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD edges even lower after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD stretched to yet another 4-month low at the beginning of the American session as the greenback strengthened after the release of US inflation and housing data. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market's expectations. On a strong note, US housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted, reaching the highest level in 8 months and indicating a pick up in building. The GBP/USD, that was underperforming in the wake of UK CPI downside surprise, fell to a fresh 4-month low of 1.6622 in recent dealings. GBP/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, the Cable could find next supports at 1.6602/00 (Apr 8 low/psychological level), 1.6564 (Apr 7 low) and 1.6548 (Apr 4 low). On the flip side, resistances are now seen at 1.6667 (200-day SMA), 1.6700 (psychological level) and 1.6727 (Aug 19 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 USD extends its rally - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the USD upside momentum ahead of the FOMC minutes. Key Quotes "Upward trend resumes after stalling during the first half of August The US dollar has continued to strengthen in the Asian trading session leading to USD/JPY breaking above the top of its recent tight trading range between 101.00 and 103.00. US dollar upward momentum resumed yesterday with the dollar index rising to its highest level since the 9th September 2013 after finally breaking decisively above resistance at around the 81.50-level." "The US dollar is continuing to derive support from the ongoing outperformance of the US economy in the near-term which appears to be strengthening while growth in most other major economies is losing momentum. It was revealed yesterday that both housing starts and building permits rebounded by more than expected in July providing further evidence that the US housing market is beginning to rebound after weakness in the first half of this year. Still, the underlying trend in housing starts remains one of only very gradual improvement while permits have flat-lined so far during 2014." "The release yesterday of the latest US CPI report also revealed that inflation pressures have eased over the last couple of months. Core inflation increased for the second consecutive month by just 0.1% in July." "It supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that the pick-up in inflation in the first five months of this year may prove to be just “noise” with underlying inflation pressures still subdued. As a result the Fed is likely to feel more comfortable to maintain its current loose monetary stance for longer which will help dampen upward pressure on US yields and the US dollar from strengthening economic growth momentum in the US." "It leaves us a little cautious about chasing further US dollar gains in the near-term ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Before that the release of the latest FOMC minutes from their 29th-30th July meeting will be in focus today. We do not expect a more detailed discussion of the Fed’s expect strategy until later this year after the Fed has brought an end to QE in the autumn." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD clinches to 1.6650 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains on the right footing on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD meandering around the mid-1.6600s so far. GBP/USD bid despite the risk-off tone The upbeat sentiment post-BoE minutes is currently bolstering the upside in the sterling, managing quite well to keep the middle area of 1.6600. It is worth recalling that the GBP reacted positively following the MPC vote, where members M.Weale and I.McCafferty favoured an immediate rate hike. “The August MPC Minutes symbolically brought the first dissenting policy votes, but we do not believe that a November 2014 Bank Rate hike is materially more likely following these Minutes… The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015”, suggested Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is up 0.20% at 1.6650 with the next hurdle at 1.6722 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6728 (high Aug.19) and finally 1.6739 (high Aug.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6567 (low Apr.7) would target 1.6555 (low Apr.4) en route to 1.6500 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates No November BoE rate hike expected despite dissenting votes - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that even though two MPC members decided to vote for a 25 bp rate hike in August, as BoE minutes showed, the rise should not be carried out as soon as November 2014. Key quotes "We continue to regard Mssrs Weale and McCafferty as outliers not bellwethers – at the margin, our confidence in this view is reinforced following yesterday's CPI inflation data and today's MPC Minutes." "The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015." "The risks around this forecast are tilted modestly towards later and slower tightening (eg, heightened financial market volatility around the May 2015 election might augur in favour of unchanged policy settings)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Poland Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -2% in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/GBP trend line and MA important short term support for continuation - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, suggests that the EUR/GBP trend line and MA provide important short term support for continuation. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Merkel: Europe needs to work on construction flaws FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic event in Lindau, Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that to definitively overcome the debt crisis in Europe, EU Member States should tighten their cooperation further. She called for improving the construction of the EU and for making the Eurozone banking system more transparent. She also suggested G20 countries should tighten shadow banking rules. Furthermore, Merkel stressed that sustainability is the main principle of the German government's decisions on fiscal policy. She pointed to the demographic challenge in Germany as one of the most important to deal with currently in order not to overburden future generations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 NZD/USD potential downside to 0.82 – ANZ FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sam Tuck, ANZ Research, expects the pair to head towards 0.82. Key Quotes "Recent events continue to affirm our 24 July trade recommendation to sell NZD/USD targeting 0.82." "Dairy prices have stabilised, but prices have flattened, implying downside risks remain." "Political risks mean the election is not the fait accompli it once was." "ANZ monthly inflation gauge validates markets move to reducing probabilities for RBNZ action." 'USD developments remain positive in line with ANZ’s ahead of consensus FOMC March lift off call." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter FXStreet (Łódź) - John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for FXCM in New York suggests in an interview for FXStreet that Fed head Janet Yellen could speak about the financial bubble woes at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday. Key quotes "The Fed Chair has made a concerted effort to maintain a dovish leaning status quo through both the FOMC policy meetings and her own press conference outings." "From her perspective, inspiring confidence in the markets is critical." "The central bank is trying to keep interest rates down to support growth, acclimatize the market to a future where normalization will have to take place and attempt to curb a financial bubble." "The rate focus has been consistent and the preparation of a withdrawal of stimulus has grown consistent over the past six months." "The financial bubble concern has only recently found its way into the commentary." "And yet, it can pose a serious problem to the entire effort. I would not be surprised to see the most substantial new ground broken on this topic." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD dips to lows around 1.0950 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now losing the grip vs. its neighbour, dragging the USD/CAD to fresh lows in the boundaries of 1.0950. USD/CAD softer after US docket The selling pressure has accelerated around the USD despite Initial Claims came in a tad better than estimates, dropping to 298K in the week ended on August 15th vs. 300K forecasted and 312K from the previous week. Next of relevance will be the manufacturing PMI tracked by Markit, Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey. “Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USDCAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment. Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategy at TD Securities. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.0950 facing the next support at 1.0899 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.0870 (200-d MA) and finally 1.0861 (low Aug.15). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0986 (high Aug.6) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY contained above 137.60 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The EUR/JPY jumped to 3-week highs at 137.85 overnight, however the pair wasn't able to hold at highs but the rejection was contained at 137.60. Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 137.64, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.87 and low at 137.47. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish. EUR/JPY levels If the pair breaks below 137.60, it will face supports at 137.50, 137.45 and 137.20. On the upside, resistances are at 137.80, 138.00 and 139.00. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States CB Leading Indicator (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.6%) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change registered at 88B above expectations (83B) in August 15 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 USD/JPY pulls back after faltering at 103.95 FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following another rejection ahead of the 104.00 level, the USD/JPY turned south and corrected some of its recent gains. The USD/JPY found resistance once again at the 103.95 area and pulled back, turning intraday negative and hitting a daily low of 103.67 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 103.70, 0.12% below its opening price. With no US data scheduled for today, focus remains on the Jackson Hole symposium where not only Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today, but also other top central bankers as BoJ Kuroda and ECB Draghi. USD/JPY technical levels As for technical levels, above 103.95/104.00, next resistances could be found at 104.12 (Apr 4 high), 104.32 (76.4% Fibo of 105.44-100.75) and 104.84 (Jan 23 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 103.59 (Aug 21 low), 103.00 (psychological level), 102.88 (Aug 20 low) and 102.51 (Aug 19 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Risk sentiment in ‘wait-and-see’ ahead of Jackson Hole – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The risk-on trade remains dormant at the end of the trading week, ahead of the events from the Jackson Hole Symposium, commented Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. Key Quotes “Risk sentiment overall remains positive but the market is gradually going to wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this afternoon”. “Yesterday’s macroeconomic data were mixed. In the US data were better than expected across the board and the housing data particularly continued to suggest that the recovery in the euro area and China remains fragile”. In the US S&P 500 closed at a new record high yesterday and Asian stock markets are mostly higher this morning, taking their lead from the US. In the FX market the USD is taking a breather after the recent sharp appreciation and the major FX crosses have been largely range trading overnight”. “10-year US bonds yields have also declined slightly since market close in Europe yesterday, as the market has turned its attention from the slightly hawkish Fed minutes to Yellen’s speech later today”. “In connection with the official opening of the Jackson Hole central bank conference yesterday, some of Fed’s hawks had the opportunity to express their views”. “Kansas City Fed President Esther George, the conference host, in her opening remarks said broad-based employment gains suggest that the US economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates”. “Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who dissented at the last Fed meeting, said that very easy monetary policy is increasingly risky. Plosser also warned against making wage development the centrepiece of monetary policy, as its relationship with inflation is not strong”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is staging some sort of recovery from yesterday’s multi-month lows near 1.3250, ahead of the key Jackson Hole Symposium. “In the run-up to Yellen and Draghi later today, market skepticism towards any rebound beyond 1.3330 is expected to mount while 1.3230 may continue to attract. As noted previously, any hawkish hints out of the Fed are likely to be juxtaposed against the ECB’s ongoing dovishness and this may continue to weigh on the pair”, noted Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank. Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, observed the pair “probed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-14 rise at 1.3249 and briefly made a new August low at 1.3242 before stabilising on Thursday. A minor bounce is thus likely to be seen… Minor resistance comes in around 1.3333/36 and more important resistance along the three month downtrend line at 1.3422”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY points to consolidation near term – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair could attempt a consolidation pattern in the very near term. Key Quotes “USD/JPY has now risen above the March high at 103.77 and so far rose to 103.96. It continues to have the April peak at 104.13 in focus but is expected to consolidate below it today”. “Together with the 104.45 78.6% retracement, 104.13 is regarded as the last defence for the 105.45 2014 high”. “Minor support comes in around the July peak at 103.15”. “We will retain our bullish view while USD/JPY remains above the current August low at 101.51”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD in highs near 1.0960 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is resuming its rally on Friday, taking the USD/CAD to test session highs near 1.0960. USD/CAD focus on CPI The pair is extending its bounce off overnight lows in the 1.0930 area, ahead of the key inflation figures due in Canada later. Market consensus expects headline consumer prices to expand at an annual rate of 2.3% in July, down from June’s 24%; Core prices are expected to tick higher to 1.9% over the last twelve months vs. 1.8% YoY previous. “Short, medium and long-term trend studies are still bullishly aligned so we expect softness to base around short-term trend support at 1.0934 currently”, noted Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is up 0.14% at 1.0957 and a breakout of 1.0987 (high Aug.21) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23). On the flip side, the next support aligns at 1.0933 (low aug.20) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0870 (200-d MA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Canada: CPI (Jul) rose 2.1% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Canadian headline consumer prices rose 2.1% on a year through July, missing forecasts for a 2.3% gain. On a monthly basis prices contracted 0.2%, vs. -0.1% expected. The Bank of Canada Core CPI rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and dropped 0.1% inter-month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY bulls let their chance slip through the fingers; 104.00 is still unbroken FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY touched the intraday high at 104.06 on the back of Yellen's comments, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough as the pair returned to its old range, currently trading at 103.90 Unhelpful Yellen Janet Yellen has driven markets crazy with her so long awaited speech in Jackson Hole. She stated that rates might be raised sooner if there is a faster progress on goals, while slower progress will delay rate increase. Sounds like she tries to have something for bears and something for bulls at the same time. Investors hoped that this speech will help them to shape a clear USD direction, but they might get nothing more that just a bout of volatility. Thus USD/JPY returned below 104.00 level. The nearest support is still at 103.60. What price levels and patterns have to be considered? Spot is presently trading at 103.94, and next resistance can be seen at 103.97 (Yesterday's High), 104.01 (Daily Classic R1), 104.07 (Daily High), 104.18 (Daily Classic R2) and 104.39 (Daily Classic R3). Support below can be found at 103.85 (Daily Open), 103.85 (Monthly High), 103.85 (Weekly High), 103.81 (Daily Classic PP) and 103.78 (Hourly 20 EMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Geopolitical risks remain alive – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, the situation in Ukraine continues to be alarming. Key Quotes “On the geopolitical front, Ukraine on Sunday marked its independence day, while intense fighting continued around the rebel-held city of Donetsk”. “On Friday, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that the alliance had observed ‘an alarming’ build-up of Russian ground and air force near the border of Ukraine”. “Rasmussen’s comments likely have contributed to the negative sentiment in the markets since Friday”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates European stocks boosted by Draghi FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks rose Monday as sentiment improved after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi lifted expectations of further policy easing. Speaking at a symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Draghi said late on Friday the ECB is prepared to respond with all its available tools if inflation continues to fall. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.61% to 338.81 in early trade Monday. The index gained 2.1% last week, the most since February. As for country-specific indexes the Germany’s DAX 30 advanced 1.13% while the France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.03%. Spain’s Ibex 35 added 0.83% while Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.97%. The UK market is closed today for a holiday. In the macroeconomic domain, German IFO survey showed German economy continues to lose strength. Business climate index fell to 106.3 vs 107 expected in August while current assessment dropped to 111.1 versus 112.0 and expectations index slid to 101.7 vs 102.0. In the currencies market, the US dollar continues to consolidate near multi-month highs after Fed Yellen not-so-dovish comments Friday. As for commodities, gold shed 0.17% to $1,278 an ounce while crude oil was nearly flat at $93.61 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is putting the 1.3200 critical support to the test on Monday, largely ignoring the poor IFO results and following the dovish appreciations from ECB’s Draghi over the weekend. “To the delight of the ECB, EUR/USD is probing lows since Sep 2013 and seems on track for substantial further decline multi-week/month… The data week ahead should tend mildly negative for EUR/USD but is overshadowed by the early Sep data flurry, so while retaining a downward bias on the week, we suspect new lows will only be marginal, with 1.3105 support to hold”, observed strategists at Westpac Global Strategy Group. In addition, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph commented the pair “has slipped through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-14 rise and the last week’s August low at 1.3249/42 and thus nears the September 2012 high at 1.3173 while en route to the 1.3105 September low and the psychological 1.3000 region”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD reclaims 1.3200 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now picking up pace and lifting the EUR/USD back to challenge the significant 1.3200 barrier. EUR/USD remains bearish The bearish tone from Mario Drgahi at the Jackson Hole Symposium is still weighing on the pair at the beginning of the week. Although spot seems to have absorbed quite well the disappointment from the German IFO series, the results added to a negative streak of data releases in the euro region, supporting the idea of further easing by the ECB at some point in the medium term. Analysts at BTMU assessed, “The deteriorating euro-zone economic growth outlook appears in more marked contrast to the improving US growth outlook in the near-term undermining the relative appeal of the euro compared to the US dollar… The elevated scale of speculative euro shorts may help to dampen further downside in the near-term, although widening economic divergences still argue in favour of a weaker euro. EUR/USD key levels At the moment the pair is losing 0.30% at 1.3200 with the next support at 1.3157 (low Sep.9 2013) followed by 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) and finally 1.3089 (low Jul.19 2013). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) would aim for 1.3324 (high Aug,20) and then 1.3361 (21-d MA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD fills the opening gap, nears 1.6600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has managed to extend its recovery during the European session, filling the downward opening gap in the process. The GBP/USD has been in slowly moving away from fresh 5-month lows scored at the opening, having regained the 50-hour SMA and moving closer to the 1.6600 zone. At time of writing, the Cable is trading at the 1.6590 zone, 0.10% above its opening price. In the absence of fresh economic data, investors are still assessing Friday’s Yellen speech, which was perceived as less dovish by markets. GBP/USD technical outlook “The overall outlook below 1.6600 intraday resistance remains bearish, for a slide towards 1.6460”, said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock. “Crucial on the upside is 1.6650-70 area”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 European stocks slow down after sharp gains FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks were mixed Tuesday after a steep rally the previous day that were propelled by prospects of further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank. The Stoxx Europe 600 was flat at 340.48 in early trade. The index rallied 1.1% yesterday as investors price in further monetary stimulus by the ECB. As for country-specific indexes the UK FTSE rose 0.37%. The Germany’s DAX 30 dropped 0.39% and the France’s CAC 40 shed 0.08%. Spain’s Ibex 35 added 0.12% while Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 0.31%. In the macroeconomic domain, there is no data scheduled for the Eurozone and focus will be on the US, where durable goods orders and consumer confidence are due. In the currencies market, the US is taking a breather near multi-month highs, after not-so-dovish Yellen speech in Jackson Hole triggered a rally across the board. As for commodities, gold gained 0.89% to $1,290 an ounce while crude oil advanced 0.10% to $93.44 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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