OctaFX_Farid Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 USD/JPY bulls have a go at 101.50 resistance FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY opened at 101.39 in Asia and climbed to 101.47 though medium offers on approach to 101.50 hold USD bulls back. Range for a change European players helped USD/JPY to reverse some Asian losses and even to finish the day in the green zone. There were few meaningful catalysts on Monday, so the movement is regarded as technically induced. The support of 101.20 seems to be pretty strong and more broadband USD weakness is needed to crack it. Japanese leading indicators might shed some light on the economic outlooks, but they are unlikely to move the markets gripped by geopolitical fears. Later during the day US consumer prices will be in focus. No change of pricing pressure is expected, though any sighs of inflation growing faster might lead to adjustments of first rate hike timing forecasts. What are today’s key USD/JPY levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 101.33, with support below at 101.25, 101.11 and 101.03 with resistance above at 101.48, 101.56, and 101.70. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA neutral at 101.46 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 101.61. Hourly RSI is bullish at 58. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY is trying to settle above 137.00 FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/JPY took off from 137.09 at the opening and moved to 137.24, deeper to the bullish territory EUR/JPY is stuck Has EUR/JPY bottomed out at 136.69, or its just a short respite before a rush to new multi-month lows? The answer to this question is elusive. But there are several observations to be considered. First, the cross cannot close above 137.00 pivot, which is definitely bears despite lack of bearish momentum. EUR/JPY is strongly influenced by overall JPY dynamics and, consequently, risk sentiments that have turned sour lately. On the other side of the equation is potential EUR rebound against USD that may drag EUR/JPY higher. Anyway, we need to see the cross clearly above 137.00 on daily basis to hope for further upside. What are today’s key EUR/JPY levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 137.06, with support below at 136.94, 136.76 and 136.64, with resistance above at 137.24, 137.36, and 137.54. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish with the 200SMA bearish at 137.70 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 138.05. Hourly RSI is bullish at 58. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair is confined to a narrow range at the beginning of the week, hovering over the low 1.3500s area against a backdrop of scarce volatility and lack of data releases in Euroland. “EUR/USD has seen a slight erosion of the 2 year uptrend, this week at 1.3525. It is sitting just above the 1.3476 2014 low and beyond a small rebound we look for this to be eroded. Failure here will trigger losses to the 1.3426 200 week ma en route to the 1.3295 November 2013 low”, observed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added, “Potential further EU sanctions on Russia may keep the EUR-USD somewhat on edge in the near term while we also note the note the Bundesbank’s cautionary comments on Germany’s 2Q GDP numbers. We continue to see inherent risks of a test towards 1.3500 ahead of 1.3475 in the interim while 1.3600 should serve as a useful resistance level for now”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CHF ignored weak Swiss Trade data, but ready to rise FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/CHF opened the day at 0.8977, edged higher to 0.8987, and looks ready to continue the move up. The game of contrasts The pair is in deep consolidation and only really interesting developments during American session may take the pair out of the tight range. The just released weaker than expected Swiss Trade Data failed to trigger any significant moves in the pair. The scheduled for release CPI and housing data may support the view the US economy is gathering pace in its recovery opposite to the euro zone showing some signs of contraction again. If so, the Swissy may come under pressure with initial target at 0.9001 resistance. What are today’s key USD/CHF levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 0.8981 with support below at 0.8970, 0.8961 and 0.8950, with resistance above at 0.8990, 0.9001, and 0.9010. Hourly Moving Averages are largely bullish, with the 200SMA bullish at 0.8951 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 0.8946. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Improvement in UK public sector finances is painfully slow - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - James Knightley from ING observes that despite the pickup in growth and thriving labor and property markets in the UK, public sector finances are still in poor condition. Key quotes "The fiscal year to date (only April and May admittedly) saw the government borrow £2bn more than it did in the same period last year with government receipts down £3.2bn while expenditure was only lower by £1bn. "Today should show a modest improvement, but it is unlikely to alter the story significantly." "Part of the disappointment relates to the fact that the cut in the top rate of tax from 50% to 45% last year meant that some high earners (and their employers) delayed bonus payments and other forms of income to take advantage of the lower tax rate." "Stamp duty receipts have also disappointed and coincide with a sharp drop in mortgage approvals following the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review in April." "That said, there are improvements in other areas. VAT receipts are up 5.7%, which presumably reflects stronger consumer spending while corporation tax receipts are up 9.3%." "We believe that the tax revenue figures will improve though given the strength of job creation and the anticipation that wages will eventually start to pick-up – note the national minimum wage will increase 3% in October." "However, we are not confident on a quick turnaround given the history of disappointment while there is some concern that growing talk of Bank of England rate hikes may make households and businesses a little more cautious, which could hurt VAT and stamp duty receipts." "This suggests that government spending will continue to be kept on a tight leash while the prospect of a significant preelection inducement to the electorate is looking less and less likely." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 BoE's Carney: As UK economy normalizes, rates will have to start to rise FXStreet (Łódź) - In his speech at the Commonwealth Games Business Conference in Glasgow, BoE head Mark Carney said that the UK economy was normalizing but that the central bank didn't have any "preset course" toward higher interest rates, as the timing of the first hike would be determined by the data. The governor added that once rates started rising, the process would be "gradual and limited," but that wouldn't happen until real wages began growing consistently. “The economy is finally producing as much as it did on the eve of the crisis in 2008, and inflation is back near its 2% target," Carney pointed out. “A key judgment for the Monetary Policy Committee is when and to what extent these developments will translate into real wage growth, and in turn that wage growth into price pressures.” He emphasized that spare capacity being used up faster than expected. Carney also remarked that the strength of the pound over the past year was one of the headwinds facing the economy. He added that rising housing prices could result in an increase of mortgage debt taken on by households and that "if a lot of people are highly indebted, that could tip the economy into recession.” Moreover, Carney Carney suggested that the UK should diversify trade away from slow-growing developed markets such as Europe to the Commonwealth and emerging markets. During Carney's speech the pound fell from 1.7050 to 1.7030 and then sat in the middle at 1.7040 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Lithuania's Eurozone accession officially approved FXStreet (Łódź) - European finance ministers have officially backed Lithuania's accession to the Eurozone, beginning with January 1, 2015. ECB executive board member Peter Praet, also present in Brussels, stressed that the newest euro area member should pursue appropriate policies to prevent economic imbalances. He reminded that three of Lithuania's largest banks' balance sheets were being reviewed by the ECB as part of the central bank's comprehensive assessment of the Eurozone banking system. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY maintains the range FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY managed to trim intraday losses after bottoming out at 101.30 during the European session, although it continues to trade in negative ground for the day. The USD/JPY is correcting lower after the upside was capped by the 21-day SMA following 3 consecutive days of gains. However, the subsequent dip was contained by the1 01.30 area, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 101.35, still 0.10% below its opening price. USD/JPY technical levels In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate supports at 101.19 (Jul 21 low), 101.08/05 (Jul 18 & 10 lows) and 100.81(May 21 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 101.60 (Jul 22 high), 101.78 (Jul 16 high) and 101.93 (200-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD: near-term test of 1.3380 expected - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank noted that there is ongoing downside pressure on EUR and they expect EUR/USD to test 1.3380 in the near term. Key Quotes “EUR is weak, flat since yesterday’s close, but having broken below its recent range and the February lows”. “Downside pressure has also built on EUR crosses, with EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD all having dropped to fresh lows in the last 24 hours”. “Building on yesterday’s comment, we see this build as suggesting there is ongoing downside pressure on EUR, which is likely to pull it lower still”. “News flow has been quiet, with no fundamental releases except for mixed second tier data from France. We look for a near-term test of 1.3380”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD bounces at 1.0710; back to 1.0730 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CAD tested the 1.0710 key level post Canadian retail sales data but the pair bounced there and now it is trading back around 1.0730. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0726, down 0.11% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0744 and low at 1.0709. USD/CAD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. USD/CAD levels If the pair manages to break above 1.0725, next resistances are at 1.0760 and 1.0790. On the donwside, supports are at 1.0710, 1.0690 and 1.0625. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 24, 2014 Author Share Posted July 24, 2014 USD/JPY holding on 101.50 FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 101.54, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 101.57 and low at 101.47. USD/JPY spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, all the while we are still unchanged with the Tokyo open and trade data already posted. However, in the 4 hours chart, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, “Indicators head higher in positive territory, yet chances of an advance are subdue to a break above mentioned resistance”. USD/JPY Levels Spot is presently trading at 101.54, and next resistance can be seen at 101.56 (Yesterday's High), 101.60 (Daily 20 SMA) and 101.67 (Weekly High). Next support to the downside can be found at 101.47 (Daily Low) and 101.40 ahead of 101.20. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below forecasts (4.6%) in June: Actual (4%) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 24, 2014 Author Share Posted July 24, 2014 United States Markit Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (57.5) in July: Actual (56.3) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates NZD/USD: year-end target at 0.85 - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that the RBNZ used much stronger language than before, adding pressure on the NZD after the meeting. Scotiabank holds their NZD/USD year-end target at 0.85 and warns cautious when it trades above 0.86. “NZD is weak, having fallen 1.3% since yesterday’s NA close and touching a one month low”. “As expected the RBNZ increased interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%; while signaling a pause in its tightening cycle, downgrading its growth forecast to 3.7% in 2014 and rising concern over the level of NZD”. “In its warning over the currency, the RBNZ said explicitly that ‘the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall’. This is much stronger language than has been used recently and added to the downward pressure on NZD”. “We hold a year-end target of 0.85, expecting markets to grow increasingly cautious over NZD when it trades above 0.86”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change came in at 90B, below expectations (95B) in July 18 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates S&P 500 inches to new record high - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Nicole Elliott, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV points out that the S&P 500 is climbing towards a new record high. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD hits fresh 1-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD fell further below 1.7000 and printed a fresh 1-month low at the beginning of the New York session as the greenback strengthened on the back of upbeat jobless claims data. Today’s UK retail sales release was disappointing which in addition to less hawkish than expected BoE minutes published yesterday, weighed on the Cable, pushing it further away its 6-year peak of 1.7190 scored last week. The pair has fallen for seven trading days in a row, retracing almost 50.0% of its May-July rise between 1.6692/1.7190. Having scored a low of 1.6968, the GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6975, recording a 0.38% loss on Thursday. GBP/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, the GBP/USD could find next supports at 1.6951 (Jun 25 low), 1.6940 (61.8% Fibo of 1.6692/1.7190) and 1.6919 (Jun 18 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.7052 (Jul 24 high), 1.7094 (Jul 23 high) and 1.7100/02 (psychological level/20-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Germany IFO - Current Assessment came in at 112.9 below forecasts (114.5) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD slides as hopes are killed FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/USD retreated from session high at 1.3475, and slid to 1.3460 area right before the IFO release; it moved to 1.3450 post data. When IFO is out The chances to see good IFO numbers were slim, as Germany has shown some slackness in recent industrial and business data. The released yesterday PMI data did give a hope, but when the IFO expectations index came out at 103.4 vs. 104.5, the pair immediately reacted with a slide to 1.3450 area, and if the support is broken the next target may become 1.3414. The other components of the report disappointed as well confirming the weakness evolving in the German economy. What are today’s key EUR/USD levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3462, with support below at 1.3439, 1.3414 and 1.3391, with resistance above at 1.3487, 1.3510, and 1.3535. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.3535 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.3554. Hourly RSI is bearish at 54. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 All eyes on the Fed and US NFP next week- FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - According to FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik the fate of the US dollar next week depend on the result of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the US GDP as well as the jobs data releases. Key quotes “As for the FOMC, the fact is that not much should be expected, as there is no press conference scheduled post meeting.” “A statement will of course be released as usual, and market expects it to confirm QE will end following the October meeting, not a surprise anymore; attention will focus particularly in any line regarding the current assessment of the labor market, a barometer of when rates will be hiked.” “And while labor market indicators had been for the most mixed, the main indicator, Nonfarm Payrolls, will be release after the meeting, which signals the FED will likely maintain previous meetings wording. In that case dollar can suffer a setback, on diminishing expectations of a rate hike.” “If the wording changes however, and the FED eases its view on employment recovery anyway, dollar will likely get a boost.” “When it comes to employment figures, unemployment rate stands at 6.1% Fed’s year-end target and an over 5 years’ low, while past month, the economy managed to add 288K new jobs.” “For this month market expectations are of 230K new jobs added which will fit average and therefore be understood as positive.” “The problem is still the participation rate, which measures the total number of people either employed or actively looking for work, a number the FED likes to ignore completely: the labor force participation rate for all ages stands at 62-8, the lowest since 1978.” “Nevertheless, if the numbers results above expected, investors will likely choose to price in a sooner than expected rate hike, more over if FED statement confirms purchase programs will end upcoming spring, with dollar edging higher across the board.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Barclays: FOMC meeting will likely not be a market mover - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that Barclay’s doesn’t expect much action from the Fed at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Key quotes “The statement may note that the final reduction in purchases would occur following the October meeting, but that should not be a surprise to anyone.” “The Fed may upgrade the assessment of the labor market.” “At the April meeting, the statement noted that ‘Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated’.” “At the June meeting, the statement noted that ‘Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated’.” “Information received on the labor market front since then has been unequivocally strong. All measures have shown improvement and the unemployment rate has already dropped to the Fed’s year-end central tendency range of 6.0-6.1%.” “While we do not expect the Fed to remove the ‘elevated’ from the statement yet, it is very possible later this year, in our view." ‘This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.’ OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD: plenty of upside room - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that markets dynamics are changing toward broad USD strength and there is plenty of upside room. Key Quotes “The first half of 2014 was marked by the lack of a broad movement in the USD; instead the focus was on the domestic stories; with NZD rallying on RBNZ policy, GBP on strengthening domestic fundamentals, JPY on shifting expectations for the BoJ and firming inflation; while others were weak, like SEK and NOK. However since the end of June currencies have broadly shifted towards USD strength which warns of an overall change in market dynamics”. “The DXY is higher and trading above its average level; however still not above its June highs, accordingly if we are in the midst of a shift there is plenty of upside room”. “Some of the broad strength is on the back of rising geopolitical risks but the fundamentals are also at play with US labour markets and inflation firming the relative interest rate story is increasingly important”. “The key will be the developments at the Fed next week. It is likely too early for a broad and strong USD rally; but for some currencies, like EUR, we appear to be at the beginning of a new (and long awaited) downward slide”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD extends gains, hits 9-day high FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD took another step higher and rallied to fresh weekly highs as the greenback strengthened during the American session. The USD/CAD broke above the 1.0770 area and triggered some stops on its way toward 1.0785 although it lost momentum ahead of the top of its past weeks' range. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0780, 0.34% above its opening price. USD/CAD technical outlook “Technical studies warn of upside risk, even as USD/CAD sits within ten day range”, said Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank. “A break above this range (1.0794) would add momentum to long USD/CAD trades”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates FOMC: No hurry to hike - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that they expect the FOMC to remain on its $10bn/meeting tapering course on July 30. Key Quotes: “Given the Fed’s tapering inertia and the re-acceleration of the economy since the extreme winter weather, we expect the FOMC to remain on its $10bn/meeting tapering course on July 30. This will bring down monthly asset purchases to $25bn, from $35bn”. “Meanwhile, the debate between hawks and doves about the amount of slack in the economy has shifted to wages”. “As long as wage growth remains muted, the doves – who have an overwhelming majority in the FOMC – will see this as evidence of ample slack and consequently they won’t be in a hurry to start hiking the fed funds target rate”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Session recap - USD ends the week as king pin FXStreet (Guatemala) - We had a quiet session without much in the way of stimuli besides the US durable goods number which came in better than expected. Instead, we can look at the week overall and the dollar has come out the king of this week amongst the G10’s with a higher yield despite the mount of miserable data over the past couple of days. We have in the main simply held onto the positive results from the unemployment claims that have fallen to their lowest levels in around eight years. EUR/USD has been a non-event in the US session moving within a tight non-compelling range despite the lows of 1.3422 on the dismal French jobs numbers. USD/JPY was yet again a slow burner and without events the pair remains in its daily range, with 102 handle proving out of sight on attempts that left it reaching only as high as 101.90. GBP/USD was the least active and 1.7000 wasn’t to be at the end of this week. This leaves it in a bearish position. Key events: US durable goods better than expected French jobless disappoint and rise to a record 3.4 million OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Specs keeps selling the Euro - Nomura FXStreet (Bali) - David Fritz and Jens Nordvig, FX Strategists at Nomura, look at the latest changes in futures positioning, noting that specs kept selling the Euro for the week ended July 22. Key Quotes "For the week ended July 22, non-commercial accounts continued to sell EUR. On the week ended Tuesday, speculators sold $4.3bn and we estimate they sold an additional $2.0bn since. The EUR was mainly sold against USD, which gained $3.9bn of longs into Tuesday and a further $2.5bn by Friday‟s close." "Speculative accounts sold $4.3bn of EUR by Tuesday, increasing total net shorts to -$15.0bn. This is the most net short EUR has been since November 2012. By Friday we estimate that positioning in EUR had gotten even more net short, to -$16.9bn. Positioning in EUR was only more net short in May 2010 and for a few months starting in November 2011." "JPY shorts were cut on the week ended Tuesday by $1.1bn, bringing spec positioning in JPY to -$6.6bn. This equals the least net short JPY has been since November 2012. This could reflect sentiment that markets are accepting less chance of further easing by the BOJ and losing conviction in yen weakness as USDJPY has been trading sideways for months." "CAD positioning continues to get more net long, even as the Canadian dollar depreciates. Positioning in CAD stood at $1.9bn by Tuesday and remained there through Friday. This is again the most net long CAD has been since February 2013." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/NZD: Short opportunity near term? FXStreet (Bali) - AUD/NZD is trading in consolidation mode just below the 1.10 handle, following a daily bearish doji candle on Friday, after 9 days of unperturbed gains for the pair. Peter Fell, Analyst at FXBeat, notes: "The world seems to have turned bearish Kiwi, to my mind nothing much has changed, rates are on pause, but the next move is higher, intervention is likely just to be more jawboning. Sovereign demand is not going to disappear, the global hunt for yield will continue." Peter adds: "That being said, a fairly low risk trade to buy NZD would be against the Aussie, recent forays above 1.10 have proved exhaustive, the last couple of days has seen a possible double top at 1.1016, if that is the case, there is scope for the cross to trade back to 1.0866, 38.2% fibo on the 1.0624 / 1.1016 rise, 1.0820 is the 50% fibo on the same move, a move above the June high of 1.1036 and all bets are off." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Strong USD bias in the period ahead - ANZ FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ FX Strategists are betting for a strong USD bias in the period ahead. Key Quotes "We retain a strong USD bias in the period ahead. We expect volatility to show an increased tendency to behave in a step function." "Volatility might be very low for a period, but when it rises, it rises abruptly and substantially. A portfolio that is overweight carry or momentum strategies, under-weighting valuation as a currency screen, or overweight assets in markets where liquidity can be one-sided, are likely to find this challenging." "On this basis, we continue to expect peripheral currency weakness to be the dominant trend. We also, for the first time, expect the EUR to be part of this dynamic, if but only in the near-term. To the extent this EUR view is driven at least partly by the USD side of the equation, we remain distrustful of calls for broad EUR weakness on the crosses." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY capped by 200 DMA still FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 101.78, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 101.85 and low at 101.75. USD/JPY is a slow start to the week, below the 200 DMA still, with the Nikkei down, no events on the calendar and if going by what we have been playing with in recent ranges, then we can presume the next couple of days at least will remain at a slow pace. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 53.69 but four hour indicators give us overbought signals. The 200 SMA is currently at 101.71, up from 101.53 at the last period close, and climbing on the hourly USD/JPY chart. USD/JPY Levels Current price is 101.79, with resistance ahead at 101.80 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 101.85 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 101.75 (Low), 101.66 (Weekly Classic PP) and 101.63 (Daily 20 SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates The week ahead could get volatile - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that today has no Asian or European data, with only US Markit services PMI and pending home sales but they look ahead at the rest of the key impactors for the week. Key Quotes: “Tomorrow has Japanese unemployment and retail sales, UK mortgage approvals, and the US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index (given what happened in the US housing bubble, the “shill” part of Case-Schiller always raises a smile), and consumer confidence. The FOMC meeting also starts”. “Wednesday has Japanese industrial production, German CPI, and US ADP employment (which was spot on with the NFP release last month so may get more attention this time). Moreover, we also get Q2 US GDP, which is expected at 3.0% QoQ annualized: that sounds positive, but isn’t really when one considers it was -2.9% in Q1, and given it is not a YoY figure, there should have been a larger bounce than that. Following that we get the FOMC decision, where unless there is a huge shock in the GDP data we can comfortably expect another USD10bn QE tapering tranche”. “Thursday has Aussie building approvals and private-sector credit, UK house prices, German retail sales and unemployment, Indian fiscal data, and US initial claims and the Chicago PMI”. “Friday has China’s official manufacturing PMI, Aussie PPI, the Indonesia and India manufacturing PMIs, and US payrolls for July – expectations are at 231K, down from 288K last month, with unemployment seen steady at 6.1% (officially - versus 12.1% underemployment in June)”. “There is also final Michigan confidence and the ISM manufacturing survey. In short, if we are going to see a return of volatility, this week provides a good platform for it”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Austria Purchasing Manager Index rose from previous 50.4 to 50.9 in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 8.7% to 8.1% in June Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -1.6%, above expectations (-1.8%) in June Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US economy posted strong GDP in Q2 - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, underlined the solid data from US GDP in the second quarter. Key Quotes "The report revealed that the US economy rebounded more strongly than expected after the sharp contraction in Q1 providing further reassurance that it was only a temporary slowdown. Real GDP expanded by a robust annualized rate of 4.0% in Q2 which was boosted by a large inventory build adding 1.66 percentage points." "The underlying pace of growth firmed with personal consumption growth accelerating to an annualized rate of 2.5% and capital investment expanding by an annualized rate of 7.0%. There were also upward revisions to growth in the previous three quarters revealing that economic growth was stronger over the past year." "As a result of the revisions and despite the temporary economic contraction in Q1, real GDP expanded on average by annual rate of 2.4% over the last twelve months accelerating from an expansion of 2.0% in the previous twelve months. The report reinforces our view that the US dollar will likely continue to strengthen in the year ahead alongside the strengthening US economy. The release yesterday of the latest ADP survey also revealed that employment growth likely remained robust in July remaining consistent with non-farm employment increasing in line with its’ average over the last six months of around 230kjobs/month." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD Strength Hurting the Canadian Dollar - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, observes that the strength of the greenback has been hurting the Canadian dollar and wonders if we will see the 1.10 level shortly. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $472.5B to $472.4B Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in July: Actual (51.8) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is seeing a recovery attempt to the 1.3400 handle today, despite the softer tone from the final manufacturing PMIs in Euroland and ahead of July’s Payrolls. “We are waiting for a rebound to reinstate shorts and are not willing to chase this lower as momentum indicators remain in oversold territory. Nonetheless following the demise of the 2 month uptrend we remain in sell the rally mode, and a negative bias will remain entrenched below the 1.3535 2 month downtrend”, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. In addition, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank, suggested, “Note that the pair has leaked below 1.3400 this week and a sweater may be in order for EUR bulls as the balance of risks emanating from the US/EZ headline flow (ECB meeting next Thursday) may continue to guide the pair towards the 1.3300 neighborhood in the coming sessions”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Turkey Exports remains unchanged at $12.54B in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Austria Unemployment up to 286.4K in July from previous 281.6K Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 USD/JPY is closer to 103.00 every coming minute FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY slid to 102.50 area after reaching 102.72 session high. Not a knockout yet The pair got a knockdown from the Non-Farm Payroll data, but not a knockout meaning the comeback above 103.00 area is still a possibility especially given quite interesting events calendar for the week ahead. We must say, there are practically no first-tier fundamental releases except for ISM report, but the still going on earnings season, and the behavior of stocks and credit market may help to settle above 103.00 area again. What are today’s key USD/JPY levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 102.67, with support below at 102.29, 101.96 and 101.58 with resistance above at 103.00, 103.38, and 103.71. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA bullish at 102.07 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 101.96. Hourly RSI is bearish at 47. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Stock markets collapse as predicted- ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, comments on SP 500's break lower, in the steps of European markets. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 Morgan Stanley: EUR/USD year-end forecast at 1.31 - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD standing at 1.31 at the end of 2014 and the downward move continuing in 2015 towards 1.24. Key quotes "'Indeed, we believe relationships established over the past two years between the EUR and financial markets have already started to break down, leaving the EUR exposed to the underlying bearish fundamentals,' MS argues." "'Private investor flows into peripheral bonds, equity markets, and central bank diversification will be declining sources of support for the EUR in our view. The increased potential for currency hedging of European assets in an environment of rising volatility is another EUR negative,' MS adds." "In line with this view, MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its medium-term portfolio from 1.3620, with a revised profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31." "Short-term, MS looks to use any EUR/USD rebounds to add short positions via a limit order at 1.3480, with a stop at 1.3580, and a target at 1.31." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD loses around 4.00% of face value in less than a month - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Nicole Elliott, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, observes that the USD/CAD has lost around 4.00% of face value in less than a month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD offered near 1.3380 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling interest remains alive around the single currency on Tuesday, dragging the EUR/USD to a test of recent lows around 1.3380. EUR/USD focus on US docket The euro has reacted adversely after the mixed results from Services PMIs in the euro bloc, with sellers stepping in to fade the recent spike to levels around 1.3440/50. Next of note will be US Factory Orders (0.6% exp.) and the ISM Non manufacturing for the month of July (56.3 exp.). In the view of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “The combination of ongoing downside pressure on inflation, weak confidence, disappointing PMIs and the negative impact of falling trade with Russia are likely to keep a relatively cautious tone at the ECB and support EUR downside”. EUR/USD relevant levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.27% at 1.3385 with the next support at 1.3366 (2014 low Jul.30) followed by 1.3359 (low Nov.12 2013) and then 1.3345 (low Nov.11 2013). On the other hand, a break above 1.3425 (high Aug.25) would target 1.3433 (high Aug.4) en route to 1.3445 (high Aug.1). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Markit PMI Composite declined to 60.6 in July from previous 61 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) down to 44.5 in August from previous 45.6 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 GBP/USD falls on Moody's downgrading the outlook for UK's banking system - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the rally in GBP/USD to 1.6888 seen in the European morning, on better than expected UK data, was reversed by Moody's announcement of changing the outlook for UK's banking system from stable to negative. Key quotes "The pair gave back most of its intraday gains, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around its 20 SMA and indicators heading lower, approaching their midlines." "In the 4 hours chart indicators corrected oversold readings, but now retrace from their midlines, while price halted a couple pips below the 23.6% retracement of the latest bearish run, suggesting upward potential is limited." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 USD/CHF hits fresh 6-month highs FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF rose further after Wall Street opening bell and climbed to 0.9110, reaching levels not seen since January 23, slightly above last week highs. Afterwards pulled back and currently is hovering around 0.9100, up 0.37% for the day. Greenback is among the best performers across the board, after rallying in the last hours following better-than-expected US economic data. USD/CHF levels to consider To the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.9110 (daily high) and above here at 0.9125/30 and 0.9155 (January highs). To the downside, support might be located at 0.9070/75 and below at 0.9050/55. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States 4-Week Bill Auction down to 0.02% from previous 0.03% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States 4-Week Bill Auction down to 0.02% from previous 0.03% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 6, 2014 Author Share Posted August 6, 2014 US: Trade deficit (Jun) shrunk to $41.54 billion FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that the trade deficit shrunk to $41.54 billion during June from $44.66 billion in the previous month (revised). The print however exceeded the median at $44.70 billion. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Ukraine woes rise again spooking markets Investor sentiment has been dropping this week, as reports of Russia building up forces close to Ukraine's border renewed concerns about a possible invasion. Despite signals from Polish and Ukrainian leaders that such moves suggest intentions of an incursion on Ukraine's territory, the Interfax news agency said Moscow dismissed the accusations as "groundless." Also NATO officials said on Wednesday in a statement that the amassing of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border was a worrying sign. NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu expressed worries that Putin could use "the pretext of a humanitarian or peace-keeping mission as an excuse to send troops into Eastern Ukraine." Later on Wednesday also the US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine was growing. Under the circumstances investors turned to save haven assets such as gold which jumped above the critical $1,300 mark. Stocks in Europe, US and Asia dropped on concerns over the possible Russian invasion. The ruble as well as Russian government bonds have been under rising pressure since the beginning of the week. RUB fell by 1.2% since Tuesday, following Moscow's threat that it would retaliate against Western sanctions by blocking European airlines' flights over the Russian territory. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 7, 2014 Author Share Posted August 7, 2014 GBP/USD: holds short-term negative perspective - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that the GBP/USD holds short-term bearish perspective, although she warns uncertainty over the GBP outlook is building. Key Quotes “GBP is essentially flat as the BoE left all policy measures on hold, with interest rates at 0.5%. Next week’s Inflation Report (August 13th) will provide clarity on how the BoE’s views are unfolding and is a major hurdle for GBP, followed by the release of today’s minutes on August 20th”. “GBP/USD short‐term technicals: bearish ‐ however the test down to 1.6786 that we expected is proving a challenge with the European session warning of building uncertainty over the outlook for GBP”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 Canada Net Change in Employment below forecasts (20K) in July: Actual (0.2K) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates BoE's August Inflation Report expected to provide details on rate hike timing - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that BoE's BoE's August Inflation Report, due out on Wednesday, should contain guidance on the possible timing of the first rate hike. Key quotes "It is time to get 'back to basics' by providing a clearer, less convoluted form of policy signaling via a renewed focus on the CPI central projection." "The key inputs into the August forecast – trends in GDP, inflation, market interest rates, the exchange rate, oil prices – suggest a largely unaltered CPI central projection (ie, a 5-10bp undershoot at the 2-3 year horizon)." "This is our central case and would nudge the risks towards February 2015 for the first rate hike, while any rise in the CPI projection (and certainly any overshoot of the target) would suggest the first hike is coming in November 2014." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Morgan Stanley staying short EUR/USD - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the USD following the recent string of better than expected US data. Key quotes "Barring the safe-haven flows supporting US fixed income currently, money market normalization in the US has begun, in our view." "'FOMC voting member Fisher’s comments point to an increasing debate within the Fed about bringing forward the first rate hike – we expect US front-end yields to normalize, MS projects'." "US data have been strong across the board and now the missing piece for more hawkish Fed policy is higher wages. Wages have stayed at a muted 2% YoY level, which is too low for the Fed given its 2% inflation target." "'Markets will stay tuned, with inflation indicators staying particularly in focus ,' MS argues." "MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its strategic portfolio from 1.3620 with a profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31." "As a short-term recommendation, MS enters a fresh short today from 1.34, with a stop at 1.3460, and a target at 1.31." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.6%) in June Read more in Forex News[/b] OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 Wall Street up, USD down FXStreet (Córdoba) - US equities are rising modestly on Friday while European markets finished lower. In Wall Street the Dow Jones was up 0.40% and the Nasdaq 0.16%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 lost 0.46% while the Dax retreated 0.33%. On the positive side, the FTSE MIB gained 0.33% and the Ibex 35 rose 0.26%. Among currencies, the Euro and the Swiss Franc are rising across the board while the Pound is plunging. The US dollar is little change versus the Aussie and the Kiwi, while the Canadian dollar dropped following employment data from Canada. Crude oil and gold are flat. The yellow metal pulled back after hitting fresh highs above $1,320 and was trading at $1,313 while the barrel holds around $93.75. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD testing the bulls commitment’s FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6773, down -0.35% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6836 and low at 1.6767. GBP/USD continues to slide and analyst at HSBC suggested that the USD is the next currency getting ready for lift-off. “We are getting to the point where tapering is coming to an end and uncertainty is replacing certainty. This should lead to increased speculation regarding US rate rises”. From a technical point of view, Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained, "GBP/USD short‐term technicals: bearish—all signals point to downside risk and today’s ability of spot to fall to a fresh two‐month low warns of building downside momentum. Support lies at 1.6800; while resistance lies at the 100‐day MA at 1.6875." GBP/USD Levels With spot trading at 1.6774, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.6798 (Daily Classic S2), 1.6808 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6822 and 1.6822. Support below can be found at 1.6774 (Daily Classic S3), 1.6767 (Daily Low), 1.6756 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.6690 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.6645 (Daily 200 SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY rebounds sharply from 8-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY reversed dramatically and turned to the upside. During the Asian session fell to 135.70 hitting the lowest price since November 2013 but then recovered ground and rose back above 136.00. On European hours continued moving to the upside and recently spiked higher, climbing to 136.85. Price remains near daily highs ahead of the end of the week, up 45 pips for the day. The EUR/JPY is erasing yesterday's losses and is gaining ground for the first time in a week, but still down for where it was seven days ago. With the recent recovery the pair has been able to avoid the lowest weekly close in 8-months. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY rebounds sharply from 8-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY reversed dramatically and turned to the upside. During the Asian session fell to 135.70 hitting the lowest price since November 2013 but then recovered ground and rose back above 136.00. On European hours continued moving to the upside and recently spiked higher, climbing to 136.85. Price remains near daily highs ahead of the end of the week, up 45 pips for the day. The EUR/JPY is erasing yesterday's losses and is gaining ground for the first time in a week, but still down for where it was seven days ago. With the recent recovery the pair has been able to avoid the lowest weekly close in 8-months. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates China in focus and of great interest – BAML FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted events around China of which have been of great interest in markets of late. Key Quotes "China economic data have been closely watched by market participants, as investors try to explain changes in the data, and, more importantly, extrapolate the implications for asset prices. In this piece, we explore the long-term relationship between rates and economic activities. We summarize our conclusions below." "1. The front-end of the curve (2y NDIRS) leads most economic activities (especially financing activities) by one to two quarters. Changes in front-end rates Granger cause changes in economic activities." "This means when the PBOC eases, activity tends to recover with a one or two quarter lag, and vice versa. In contrast, the belly of the curve (5y NDIRS) does not seem to correlate closely with economic activities." "2. The back-end of the curve (10y CGB) moves with the CPI in the same direction, but does not correlate strongly with other economic variables as most people have thought. Expectations on the front-end also matter to the back-end." "3. The curve slope (2s5s) exhibits a strong positive correlation with economic activities, with no meaningful lead or lag. This suggests 2s5s NDIRS should continue to steepen alongside better growth momentum, which our economist predicts." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 EUR/JPY falls after weak ZEW FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY came under pressure and dropped to fresh daily lows after ZEW surveys for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole came in lower than expected. German August ZEW economic sentiment index tumbled to 8.6 vs 18.1 forecast while current conditions slid to 44.3 vs 55.5 forecast and 61.8 previous. The euro fell across the board after data, which declines was blamed on geopolitical tensions. The EUR/JPY has fallen to a 2-day low of 136.43 so far and giving no signs to overcome the selling pressure for now. EUR/JPY supports and resistances As for technical levels, immediate supports are now seen at 136.14 (Aug 6 low), 136.00 (psychological level) and 135.72 (Aug 8 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 136.88 (Aug 12 high), 137.00/01 (psychological level/Aug 11 high) and 137.23 (Aug 6 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 12, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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