OctaFX_Farid Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 EUR/USD in ranges above 1.3600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD has remained steady in the last hours, moving sideways above 1.3600. The pair peaked during the European session at 1.3642 and then pulled back to 1.3614. During the last six hours it has been moving in a range between 1.3614 and 1.3640, consolidating above 1.3600, headed toward the second gain in a row and to the highest daily close since June 6. EUR/USD gains momentum, but still far from 1.40 The FOMC statement released yesterday weakened the US dollar, favoring the downside in the EUR/USD. But despite rising more than 70 pips in the last two days still remains far from May highs. According to the Global Markets Research Team at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ the recent package of monetary easing measures announced by the ECB has helped to reduce the scale of euro overvaluation, pushing the EUR/USD to the downside from near 1.4000. “The euro is now more modestly overvalued against the US dollar by around 5%. It supports our view that the euro will likely continue to gradually weaken in the year ahead as loosening ECB policy helps to further ease euro overvaluation”, the Team affirmed. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Slovakia Unemployment Rate dipped from previous 13% to 12.8% in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Slight upside risk to Canada's headline CPI - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Davis, Vice President and Global Strategist at TD Securities, expects the Canadian all-items CPI for May to increase by 0.2% m/m in May, due in large part to seasonal factors, while the core index is forecast to increase by 0.3% m/m. Key quotes "On a year-ago basis headline inflation should remain unchanged at 2.0% while core should nudge higher to 1.5%." "There is a slight upside risk to headline inflation and if our forecast is realized, both headline and core inflation in Q2 will run ahead of what the Bank of Canada had forecast in the April MPR." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 1.1% in April from previous 0.8% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 1.1% in April from previous 0.8% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD retraces half of weekly gains FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD finally failed to sustain gains and dipped back below the 1.3600 mark at the beginning of the American session. The EUR/USD erased not only its daily advance but alseo yesterday’s rise, sliding all the way back to the 1.3575 area amid some profit taking flows ahead of the weekend and crosses (EUR/CAD & EUR/GBP)weighing. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3580, down 0.18% on the day, although still headed for a weekly gain of 0.29%. The US dollar came under pressure Wednesday after a more dovish than expected Fed stance fueled expectations it will take a while before the bank starts hiking rates. EUR/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.3565 (10-day SMA), 1.3540 (Jun 18 low) and 1.3500 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.3642 (Jun 19 high), 1.3663 (200-day SMA) and 1.3700 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Pound remains the strongest and price action confirms it - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP is still the strongest among majors and price action confirms it. Key quotes "Some mild weak numbers were so far not enough to affect the strength of the currency, and it will take more than a month of disappointing readings to take it down." "In the meantime, market will continue pricing in a rate hike by the ends of this year, and positive macro data will only fuel the rally." "For this week, the UK will offer inflation hearings and its financial stability report, but the key event will be GDP readings on Friday: a strong final number for the quarter, currently at 0.8% should continue to support the bullish trend in the midterm." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 EUR/NOK to fall below 8.00 this year - UBS FXStreet (Córdoba) - The UBS analyst team commented that they stick to their view EUR/NOK will fall below 8.00 later this year even after the Norges Bank postponed its forecast for the first rate rise to Q3 2016. Key Quotes “The Norges Bank surprised by postponing their forecast for their first rate hike to Q3 2016 (previously summer 2015)”. “This was based on two factors: a lower outlook for interest rates in the euro, amongst others, and weaker expected oil investments. Given the uncertainty surrounding the latter, this move strikes us as overdone”. “EUR/NOK jumped to 8.30, but unless we see confirmation for fundamentally lower growth potential, we stick to our view of EUR/NOK falling below 8.00 later this year”.." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 GBP consolidating recent gains - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that despite having shown little follow through the GBP maintains its strength, trading above the 1.7000 figure against the greenback, consolidating its recent gains. Key quotes "Trading in a tight 60 pips range for second day in a row, the 4 hours chart shows that while price holds above a bullish 20 SMA, indicators turned lower and approach their midlines, diverging from price action." "Mentioned SMA offers short term support around 1.7010 now, yet a downward acceleration through 1.7000 is required to confirm a bearish movement that can extend down to 1.6950 strong static support." "The upside is favored yet messy, with a clear break above 1.7060 needed to confirm a bullish leg towards 1.7100 for today." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY steady after US Markit PMI FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY entered a consolidation phase after sliding throughout the Asian session, erasing Friday’s gains, with a better-than-expected US Markit PMI reading having virtually no impact on the dollar. The USD/JPY fell to a low of 101.80 as the dollar remains on the back foot following a FOMC meeting last week, which offered little indication the Fed will hike rates anytime soon. However, the pair managed to stabilize and has spent the last hours trading within a narrow range below 102.00. USD/JPY was last down 0.20% at 101.85. USD/JPY technical outlook “The USD/JPY moves back and forth around 102.00, presenting a bearish tone in the short term, as price develops below moving averages and indicators stand in negative territory, with momentum presenting a bearish slope”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart technical readings continue hovering around their midlines. Immediate support stands around 101.65, and a break below it is required to confirm a downward continuation towards 101.20/30 price zone”. In terms of technical levels, Bednarik locates next supports at 101.65, 101.20 and 100.70. On the flip side, resistances are seen at 102.00, 102.35 and 102.80. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY steady after US Markit PMI FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY entered a consolidation phase after sliding throughout the Asian session, erasing Friday’s gains, with a better-than-expected US Markit PMI reading having virtually no impact on the dollar. The USD/JPY fell to a low of 101.80 as the dollar remains on the back foot following a FOMC meeting last week, which offered little indication the Fed will hike rates anytime soon. However, the pair managed to stabilize and has spent the last hours trading within a narrow range below 102.00. USD/JPY was last down 0.20% at 101.85. USD/JPY technical outlook “The USD/JPY moves back and forth around 102.00, presenting a bearish tone in the short term, as price develops below moving averages and indicators stand in negative territory, with momentum presenting a bearish slope”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart technical readings continue hovering around their midlines. Immediate support stands around 101.65, and a break below it is required to confirm a downward continuation towards 101.20/30 price zone”. In terms of technical levels, Bednarik locates next supports at 101.65, 101.20 and 100.70. On the flip side, resistances are seen at 102.00, 102.35 and 102.80. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision declined to 8.75% in June from previous 9.5% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Turkey Manufacturing Confidence down to 110.7 in June from previous 113.3 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Slovakia Current Account Balance EUR increased to €106M in April from previous €70M Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Fed's Plosser sees a broad-based recovery in the US FXStreet (Łódź) - Fed's Plosser sees a broad-based recovery in the US Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser said on Tuesday that US job creation and growth could exceed expectations this year, bringing the first rate hike closer. Plosser saw US GDP exceeding 2.4% in 2014, and then falling slightly in 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.8% by the end of this year and to 5.6% by the end of the next. The Fed policymaker added that inflation seems to be firming. "The current data suggest economic strength is fairly broad-based," he stressed. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 USD/JPY up to fresh highs after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY rose to fresh daily highs after data showed US consumer confidence surged to its highest in more than 4 years while new home sales rose more than expected. US consumer confidence was up 3 points to 85.2 in June, well above expectations of 83.5. Meanwhile, May housing starts grew 18.6% to 504K, above 440K forecast. On the other hand, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index dropped to 3 versus 6 expected in June, but did little to temper the USD. The USD/JPY jumped to a daily high of 102.13 from below 102.00 before the data. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.05, recording a 0.15% gain on the day, having recovered from a low of 101.80 scored during the Asian session. USD/JPY technical levels In terms of technical levels, the pair could find immediate resistances at 102.20 (100-day SMA), 102.32 (Jun 18 high) and 102.56 (Jun 10 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.73 (Jun 19 low), 101.60 (200-day SMA) and 101.42 (May 29 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Session Recap: Uneventful session ahead of US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - Majors are back to square one heading into the American opening as investors gear up for a series of US indicators, including Q1 GDP revision, durable goods orders and a preliminary gauge of services PMI. The EUR/USD failed to sustain gains and pulled back to the 1.3605 area, while the GBP/USD managed to stabilize a tad lower around 1.6970 after dovish comments from Carney Tuesday. The USD/JPY and the AUD/USD are nearly unchanged on the day. No first-tier data was released during the European session, leaving stocks under pressure following Wall Street sell-off yesterday. The Europe Stoxx 600 was down 0.69% while US futures point to a flat opening. US durable goods for May (consensus 0.0%) and the third print of GDP (consensus -1.7%) are the highlights of the New York session. Main Headlines in Europe: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey above forecasts (8.5) in July: Actual (8.9) US durable goods and GDP data the highlight of the day - TD Securities Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) up to 0.4% in April from previous -0.2% What’s the sentiment about the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank Merkel stresses Eurozone crisis not over yet European stocks fall for a fourth session United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) below expectations (24) in June: Actual (4) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates India M3 Money Supply declined to 13.1% from previous 13.2% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 ECB's Linde: Asset purchases considered as an option FXStreet (Łódź) - Bank of Spain head and ECB Governing Council member Luis María Linde said on Wednesday at an event in Valencia that the MPC had been mulling over the possibility of resorting to asset purchases, but that it was a complicated issue, as Eurozone financial markets remain fragmented. "The ECB has lots of options but none of them are good," Jamie Coleman comments on FXBeat. "It would like to buy asset-backed securities to help revive bank lending but there is no deep market for European ABS. It could buy EZ government bonds but would face legal challenges as well as liquidity problems in some of the smaller euro zone member markets." Furthermore, Linde said that the Spanish economy was on a steady path to recovery and that the Spanish central bank could upgrade its GDP forecast in July. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US Q1 GDP reading downgraded by much more than expected - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - Following the third release of US GDP Q1 data, which revealed a revision of the annualized figure from -1% to -2.9%, James Knightley from ING points out that this leaves US annual growth at just 1.5% year-over-year. Key quotes "The consensus expectation was for a -1.8% reading. The damage was largely done through the private consumption component, which is now reported as rising just 1% versus 3.1% previously." "Gross private investment remained an 11.7% contraction while government consumption was left at -0.8%. However, exports were revised down and imports revised up meaning that the contribution from net trade is to subtract 1.5% from GDP growth rather than 0.95% as previously announced." "Nonetheless, reaction should be fairly muted given widespread expectations of a sharp bounceback in 2Q14 and the fact that the weather had such a damaging impact on 1Q activity." "Indeed, we suspect that we could see GDP rise by more than 5% annualised in 2Q. High frequency numbers for the quarter have looked good while inventories should also make a significantly positive contribution after having been run down sharply." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 BoE's Carney: Immediate action will be taken is imminent risks emerge FXStreet (Łódź) - Mark Carney assures that the central bank's actions on housing are "graduate and proportionate" and that they don't affect the central outlook for the economy. • Housing market proposals today will have no impact on current housing activity, but will "bite" if there's a sustained rise in house prices. • There's no need to divert monetary policy to address a sector-specific risk in the UK housing market. • Households will be able to get mortgages if they can afford them. • New measures on mortgages will prevent responsible lending today from turning into reckless lending tomorrow. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Fed's Bullard expects US inflation to move above 2% in 2015 FXStreet (Łódź) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that he believed US inflation was currently "turning around" and that next year it would most probably exceed the 2% target level, prompting a discussion on interest rates at the Federal Reserve. Bullard expressed satisfaction with the improvements on the US labor market, suggesting that they had accelerated since the introduction of QE3. He also said that the Q1 GDP reading on Wednesday which revealed a 2.9% drop, was an "aberration." The Fed head assured that he "doesn't see a bubble anywhere in the economy," but that the central bank would carefully monitor the developments on the US housing market. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD holding above the 1.7000 level - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the pound rose to test 1.7040 against the dollar on Thursday, with little behind the movement but buying interest. Key quotes "The pair however stalled around the strong static resistance level and retraces some with US opening, holding anyway above the 1.7000 figure." "The hourly chart shows indicators turning lower above their midlines while price holds above a bullish 20 SMA around the mentioned figure." "In the 4 hours chart indicators hover around their midlines while price stands above a bearish 20 SMA, a picture that lacks upward strength: an advance beyond 1.7061 this year high is what it takes to confirm further gains, eyeing then the 1.7100 price zone." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 United States Kansas Fed manufacturing activity declined to 2 in June from previous 14 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD rebounds and rises back above 1.3600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD rose back above 1.3600 in the last hour and recovers after falling earlier to 1.3574, the lowest price since Monday. Despite the recent recovery the EUR/USD is still down for the day, as it trades at 1.3609, 0.13% below today’s opening price. Recent moves in the EUR/USD, surging from 1.3583 to 1.3618, were accompanied by a decline of the US dollar across the board. But on a wider perspective price action in the pair remains limited. EUR/USD supported by a weak USD According to the Global Markets Research Team, from the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, the euro is likely to weaken but only modestly against the US dollar in the week ahead. “We do not expect EUR/USD to break below pivotal technical support at around the 1.3500-level. The US dollar is likely to derive support in the week ahead from further evidence that the US economic recovery is strengthening in Q2”. Analysts expect another solid Non-farm payrolls report in eight days but warned that the Fed’s dovish policy stance will likely “remain a dampener on potential upside for US yields and the US dollar in the near-term”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD feeling the pressure onto 1.07 handle - TD Securities FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities explains USD/CAD remains under pressure, with the leak lower through stops in the low 1.07 area overnight putting more pressure on the psychological support zone around the figure. Key Quotes "There may still be some barrier-related interest to buy USD’s ahead of the 1.07 line but we have to concede that the market’s failure to hold medium-term retracement support in the low 1.07 area so far this week leaves the door open to more softness in the short-run as investors continue to unwind short CAD positions." "There has been no additional news to drive the CAD higher overnight and we view the rebound as largely position-related in the wake of last week’s stronger than expected Canadian CPI and retail sales data. We view the move as something of an over-reaction as there is little risk of the BoC becoming seriously worried about inflation any time soon." "Given the drop in US yields this week, we would highlight that US-Canada spreads have not moved materially against the USD; in fact, in the belly of the curve, spreads remain at quite USD-supportive levels. And our CAD FV regression model which utilizes Canadian terms of trade and US-Canada 5-year bond spreads as inputs still estimates a USDCAD equilibrium rate of around 1.10. Spot is nearly three standard deviations away from this point at the moment." "Regardless, it is pointless trying to fight the trend in the market at the moment and the sell-off in funds has a lot of technical momentum behind it at the moment so we are unwilling to fight the trend. Loss of support in the 1.07 area through the close of the week will open up the downside a little more at least for a push to the 1.0600/50 range. Short-term charts suggest that there might be something of a slightly better bid tone for funds developing as our session gets under way but USD gains will have to extend through 1.0725/30 for the USD to have a chance at pushing a bit more materially higher." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 Austria Purchasing Manager Index declined to 50.4 in June from previous 50.9 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 0.9% in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - Martin van Vliet from ING suggests that today's below consensus European Commission business and consumer survey numbers add to concerns over a recovery slowdown in the area. Key quotes "The fall in the overall economic sentiment index (ESI), from 102.6 to 102.0 confounded the consensus forecast of a rise to 103.0 and fully reversed the 0.6 point increase in May. However, the index remains well above its long-term average (100) and is still at a level consistent with quarterly gains in GDP of 0.3%/0.4%." "The decline in overall sentiment in June was led by a drop in the export-sensitive industrial sector. Confidence in the services and retail trade sector actually improved, although the drop in consumer confidence raises questions over the durability of this further improvement." "The country breakdown, meanwhile, revealed that the decline in sentiment was fairly broad-based, with Spain, the Netherlands and especially Greece notable exceptions (the ESI in Greece rose above its long term average for the first time since August 2008)." "All in all, the weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic. Business and consumer confidence remain at levels consistent with ongoing economic recovery." "But it further vindicates the ECB’s recent decision to implement further policy easing. The Eurozone economy simply needs stimulus to sustain this recovery and avert a Japan deflation scenario." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: USD mixed heading into the weekend FXStreet (Córdoba) - The European morning ends with the USD broadly unchanged against majors, with the main exception of the yen, which is outperforming. The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD show a similar picture, trading flat on the day at 1.3610 and 1.7025 respectively, after peaking during the Asian session. the USD/JPY fell to a 1-month low of 101.30 before stabilizing in a range. “Japan data out overnight suggests consumption is weathering the April tax hike, and supports the case for no near-term BOJ action”, says the BBH analyst team. Stocks are broadly higher in Europe, although still on track for weekly losses, while US futures point to a negative open. During the New York session, the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence data would be the highlight. Main Headlines in Europe: EUR creating some artificial volatility towards the end of month Gold still moving inside the negative daily cloud European stocks rise, still headed for weekly losses Scope for further USD weakness in the short term - TD Securities UK: GDP grows 0.8% in Q1, as expected European Monetary Union Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 102 below forecasts (103) in June European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence registered at -7.5, below expectations (-6.7) in June OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 ECB successful with its message to markets?– Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analyst at Rabobank explained with its June rate decision, the ECB has brought its key repo rate to the lowest, practically feasible, level. Key Quotes: “To acknowledge this, its forward guidance language now reads “the key ECB interest rates will remain at present levels for an extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation.” Compared to the previous guidance, the possibility of a further cut has been removed”. “However, the ECB has been keen to stress that the conventional measures, which accompanied the rate cuts, imply that its message of forward guidance has been further strengthened”. “The extension of the full allotment procedure until at least end-2016 and the introduction of fixed rate TLTROs (which potentially may extend to end-2018 if banks meet certain criteria) are the ECB’s main exhibits to support this claim”. “So, has the ECB been successful in getting its message across? It would certainly appear so”. “First of all, market expectations of future interest rates have dropped markedly since May, when Draghi hinted at “action in June” and even further since the actual announcements in June”. “This is illustrated in figure 1. Secondly, the variance in future rate expectations by analysts has dropped almost to zero1, which is illustrated in figure 2 where we have used results from Reuters ECB polls since October last year. There is very little doubt among market participants that the ECB will keep its refi rate at 15bp until, at least, 2015Q4”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US: PMI Manufacturing falls to 57.3 in June FXStreet (Łódź) - US Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 57.3 in June, from 57.5 in May, according to data released today by Markit. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Italian PM expresses faith in EU institutions FXStreet (Łódż) - Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who spoke before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, expressed his faith in EU institutions, adding however that change is necessary as well. He suggested that if Britain decided to exit the EU, it would be a great loss. Moreover, Renzi urged the MEPs to "bring back confidence and hope to the EU." On July 1 Italy took over the six-month EU presidency from Greece. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change fell from previous 1.742M to -3.155M in June 27 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools. Key quotes "Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun." "'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed." "There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007." "The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD comfortable between 1.3500 - 1.3750- Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank commented that it is too early tojudge the impact of latest ECB policies and so the bank would probably use a cautious tone, leaving the EUR/USD comfortable between 1.3500 and 1.3750. Key Quotes “Yesterday, EUR reached a multi‐month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%. Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflantionary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures”. “We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact. Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750”. “EUR/USD short‐term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100‐day MA at 1.3740”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools. Key quotes "Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun." "'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed." "There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007." "The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD 1.3647 is key - Scotiabank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes the conditions surrounding the EUR/USD as we are getting two sides to the story here. Key Quotes: "Yesterday, EUR reached a multi-month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%”. “Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflationary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures." "We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact." "Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750." "EUR/USD short-term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100-day MA at 1.3740." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 US labor market gaining momentum, but 'shadow unemployment' still severely high - BNP Paribas FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas comments on the surprisingly strong US NFP report which showed an increase in hiring of 288K in June, saying that a momentum is definitely building, although the level of underutilization of labor remains high. Key quotes "On a 3-month average basis, job creations reached 272k in June. On a year-on-year basis, payrolls growth is a notch below 2.5 million, i.e. the highest reading since the end of 2005." "As we have argued for a long time, even if very strong over the last five months –and longer, actually, if December 2013 and January 2014 are analysed as harsh winter related weakness –this pace is still insufficient for rapidly absorbing the very high level of under-utilised labour." "What Janet Yellen recently called 'shadow unemployment' remains severely high. We can always argue about how to measure it, as the labour force participation rate definitely went down partly because of an ageing population, but its effects are clear." "Indeed, despite the rapid fall in the unemployment rate, which reached a 6-year low of 6.1% in June, average hourly earnings did not accelerate at all. In June, they gained 0.2% over the month, i.e. +2% from a year earlier, incredibly stable over the last four years." "Still, there are signs that optimism is allowed. The duration of unemployment episodes is going down. On average, they last 33.5 weeks in June, as compared with37.1 in February. This improvement is noticeable in broad measures of unemployment." "As long as wage inflation remains that subdued and the labour force participation rate does not go up again, there will be no reasons to call it a victory over mass unemployment." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US labor market gaining momentum, but 'shadow unemployment' still severely high - BNP Paribas FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas comments on the surprisingly strong US NFP report which showed an increase in hiring of 288K in June, saying that a momentum is definitely building, although the level of underutilization of labor remains high. Key quotes "On a 3-month average basis, job creations reached 272k in June. On a year-on-year basis, payrolls growth is a notch below 2.5 million, i.e. the highest reading since the end of 2005." "As we have argued for a long time, even if very strong over the last five months –and longer, actually, if December 2013 and January 2014 are analysed as harsh winter related weakness –this pace is still insufficient for rapidly absorbing the very high level of under-utilised labour." "What Janet Yellen recently called 'shadow unemployment' remains severely high. We can always argue about how to measure it, as the labour force participation rate definitely went down partly because of an ageing population, but its effects are clear." "Indeed, despite the rapid fall in the unemployment rate, which reached a 6-year low of 6.1% in June, average hourly earnings did not accelerate at all. In June, they gained 0.2% over the month, i.e. +2% from a year earlier, incredibly stable over the last four years." "Still, there are signs that optimism is allowed. The duration of unemployment episodes is going down. On average, they last 33.5 weeks in June, as compared with37.1 in February. This improvement is noticeable in broad measures of unemployment." "As long as wage inflation remains that subdued and the labour force participation rate does not go up again, there will be no reasons to call it a victory over mass unemployment." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD finds support at 1.3595, back to 1.3620 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro finally found support at the 1.3600 area against the US dollar as the pair is bouncing back to trade around 1.3620. The EUR/USD fell around 55 pips from 1.3650 post US employment report to trade below the 1.3600 mark at 1.3595, lowest since June 26. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3614, down 0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3665 and low at 1.3595. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment EUR/USD is trading in consolidation mode around former support at 1.3620. If the pair manages to recover above this level, next resistances are at 1.3640 and 1.3660. On the downside, supports come at 1.3600, 1.3575 and 1.3560. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY extends advance to 2-week high at 102.25 The USD/JPY extended its post-NFP gains from 101.80 area and now it is testing the 102.25 level where the pair found some selling interest. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.19, up 0.43% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.30 and low at 101.75. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. USD/JPY Sentiment "US 10 year notes are now at a 2.657% yield, up a bit less than 3 bp on the day. Earlier they rose to 2.69%, briefly," points Jamie Coleman from FXStreet. "USD/JPY may struggle to maintain its altitude if yields ease further. We trade now at 102.15 after reaching 102.26 highs earlier this morning." If the pair manages to break above 102.25, it would face resistance at 102.40 and 102.60. On the downside, supports are at 102.00, 101.75 and 101.60. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. USD/CAD levels On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 UK Industrial Production expected to rise 0.3% in May - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, predicts that month-on-month UK Industrial Production data, due out next Tuesday, could rise 0.3% in May. Key quotes "Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in April, taking the y/y rate up to 3.0% from 2.5% and growth in the latest 3 months up to 1.1% from 0.7%." "The rise in April was underpinned by a 0.4% rise in manufacturing output – the fifth successive monthly rise, with a positive contribution from electricity, gas & steam being offset by declines in oil & gas and water supply." "Survey evidence has remained positive, with the PMI output balance remaining at elevated levels in May. CBI industrial trends orders and output balances were barely altered in May (at relatively buoyant levels)." "Similarly, the BoE Agents scores for manufacturing output were broadly maintained in May, with domestic activity more buoyant than the export-facing sector." "We forecast IP to rise 0.3% m/m in May, taking the y/y rate up to 3.2% and leaving the sector on course to expand by 1.0% q/q in Q2." "For manufacturing output, the risks appear skewed towards a slightly higher outturn (given the more-often-than-not drag from the energy components – in 7 of the previous 8 months)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD sitting ugly mid 0.93 handle FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.9354, up 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9369 and low at 0.9343. AUD/USD has remained within a tight range since finding a footing yesterday after its collapse based upon Stevens. There was no data overnight in Asia and we now move into July 4th holidays so we will need to wait until next week to see what traders will do with this pair now ahead of the FOMC minutes. We did have the RBA Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis speaking last night on ‘Reforming and Financing Post-crisis Future’. But this speech was more observational with no market impact. Meanwhile, the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish still. RSI is in neutral territory at 55.99, up from it’s last hourly close at 40.33. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 46.53. AUD/USD Levels Current price is 0.9354, with resistance ahead at 0.9357 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9369 (Daily High), 0.9370 (Weekly Classic S1), 0.9374 (Daily Classic PP) and 0.9392 (Daily 20 SMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9347 (Weekly Low), (Daily Open), 0.9343 (Daily Low), 0.9329 (Yesterday's Low) and 0.9315 (Weekly Classic S2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD closing London in mid 1.71 handle FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.7149, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.7181 and low at 1.7131. GBP/USD was taken out in mid point London after posting the high for the year 1.7181. It is settled in at and around 1.7150 as we approach London closing which leaves the long term and committed bulls in for action next week and room for those who cashed in to re-enter if their sights are still set on the psychological 1.72 handle. The main risk events ahead for the pair will be the FOMC minutes and then the BoE next week. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 71.82. GBP/USD Levels With spot trading at 1.7150, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.7151 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.7155 (Daily Open), 1.7166 (Monthly High), (Weekly High) and (Annual High). Support below can be found at 1.7142 (Daily Classic PP), 1.7141 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.7131 (Daily Low), 1.7114 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.7114(Weekly Classic R2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates ECB watching exchnage rate with "great attention"- BBH FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the euro has shed a big figure against the dollar this week after it failed to establish a foothold above the 1.3700. Key Quotes: "There were no substantial near-term policy developments from the ECB yesterday. The focus was on the announcements of lengthening the time between meetings to six weeks and the eventual release of minutes from the meetings. Last month Draghi was understood to say that interest rate policy had been exhausted, but today he seemed to backtrack a bit." "He said that a technical adjustment could not be ruled out. It is not clear what this means, but it could be a cut in the corridor by bringing the marginal lending rate down." "On the exchange rate, Draghi shed little fresh light. It is not a policy target, but it is an important input into inflation." "He did seem a bit frustrated with the euro's resilience despite the rate cuts and other measures. He said he was watching the exchange rate with "great attention."" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD year end target 1.3000 - BAML FXStreet (Guatemala) - Team BAML explained that their forecast for EUR/USD at year end is 1.30, a move of less than 5%. Key Quotes " This seems eminently achievable (25% of FX forecasters agree), but options imply only a 10% probability that it will occur." "This probability seems very low yet by most measures the options are fair or even expensive so how can this be? This simple example illustrates how extreme low volatility creates a disconnect between perception and pricing of what constitutes a tail event." "This phenomenon is particularly pronounced for currencies because they are a low volatility asset class. Currencies are not historically close to equilibrium levels, so that the size of adjustments that a tail event would produce should be at least comparable to prior instances. Subdued global inflation suggests that a tail event is unlikely, but almost by definition tail events always seem unlikely, so how can we prepare in the most cost efficient manner?" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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