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Water will become a traded commodity, like oil, gold and silver, it’s just a matter of time. 70% of earth may be covered by it, but less than 1% of it is readily available freshwater, which makes it a scarce resource. It’s value to human life is unquestioned – oil, gold and silver we can live without – we die without water. The problem for Wall Street and the major international markets is that in addition to overcoming the difficulty of attaching a price to something so essential to our lives, for it to become a traded commodity it also needs to fulfil three criteria: standardised/interchangeable, tradeable and deliverable. WATER IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAN OIL TO TRANSPORT Water is always made up of H₂O, but the levels of minerals and metals it also contains depends on the location it is drawn from thus making it difficult to standardise. Its tradability is dependent on location. There are parts of the world have so much of it their biggest problem is flooding. In others it’s a scarcity and they suffer droughts. Water is also costly to transport – it costs more to pipe water than it does to pipe oil. So how can it be said with any certainty that it will become a tradable commodity? Jean-Louis Chaussade, the chief executive of French utility Suez, recently told the Financial Times that he believed water will become more valuable than oil because of the increased demand from people, industry and agriculture. DEMAND FOR WATER IS INCREASING BEYOND SUPPLY CAPABILITIES The United Nations has projected that by 2035, 40% of the world’s population will live with water scarcity. This puts companies in competition with people and farming for supplies. Local governments around the world are refusing to allow industries to take water from underground to operate which is forcing them to turn to desalination plants or waste water recycling to meet needs. Instinct tells us that it’s correct to give priority to people and agriculture to the supply of water over industry. But it clouds the issue of government’s inability to manage the provision of water efficiently, and how lack of investment in state-run infrastructure has led to the supply problem and why local government now create barriers for its use by industry. Converting water into a tradable commodity will result in it being managed more efficiently as a resource. The misuse and over exploitation of the past would be prevented by assigning it a value. This thinking prompted Fortune magazine to describe water as the commodity that will determine the wealth of nations in the 21st century, in the same way that oil did in the 20th century. The counter-argument to treating water as a commodity is that it’s a basic human right, and the fear that the world’s poor stand to become worse off as social equality will traded in for economic efficiency. Trading water rights is already happening in Australia, and to a lesser extent in the western US. The more this happens, the more it becomes accepted and eventually becomes part of the mainstream. GOVERNMENTS WILL STRUGGLE TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND The need for fresh, clean water will only increase – by 2050, 55% more water will be needed than supplied today – and government are unlikely to be able to meet that demand because of the massive investment needed to improve supply management. Markets can play an important role in providing future water security by helping to fund improvement to water infrastructure. The creation of a futures market to trade water would help to create a baseline pricing mechanism against which regional water tariffs could be fairly set. There is another fear that water scarcity could eventually see water-rich countries (Brazil, Russia, the US and Canada) form into a group similar to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) despite the current transportation issues inherent in moving water. But if serious investment isn’t made into infrastructure – $22 trillion over the next 20 years to maintain current supply levels according to some estimates – then the problem of water shortage will become even more acute. More news here at FXB Trading

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USD / JPY Daily Outlook August 16, 2012 Break of 79.13 resistance indicates that a decrease of 80.61 finish. Upside and the daily bias is targeting 79.96 first and 80.61 the next. The current development does not guarantee a decrease of 84.17 has been flipped. Therefore, it will be careful in topping signals around 80.61 . And, break of 78.59 indicates the completion of a rebound. USD / CHF Daily Outlook August 16, 2012 USD / CHF Daily neutral bias (sideway) for now. Short-term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9898 minor resistance has not been touched. Decline from 0.9971 will continue. Below 0.9656 will target 38.2% retracement of the 0.8930-0.9971 at 0.9573 . Break there will have more bearish implications, and should target the 0.9420 support. However, break of 0.9898 would target 0.9971 and possibly above. EUR / USD Daily Outlook August 16, 2012 EUR / USD still below 1.2443 daily and neutral bias. As long as 1.2133 support has not been touched, rebound from 1.2042 will continue. Above 1.2443 will target resistance is 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764). However, break of 1.2133 would confirm the rebound from 1.2042 is complete. In such case, EUR / USD re-test at level 1.2000 . GBP / USD Daily Outlook August 16, 2012 GBP / USD is still in the range of 1.5489/5767 and daily bias remains neutral. On the condition of upside, break of resistance 1.5767/77 will confirm resumption of rebound from 1.5268 and target 1.5901 / 6 (61.8% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5906 and 100% of the projected one, 5268 to 1.5777 from 1.5392 at 1.5901). However, break of 1.5489 support will bring a reduction in support to 1.5392 . Read More

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