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Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;

making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivotpointof 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795,whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;

predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;

USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivotpoint of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;

as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;

opinions of analysts on the future of USD/JPY may be averaged to the fact that in the nearest future the pair will follow the scenario of the spring-summer 2014: the level of 101.00 will perform be Pivot Point for it, the first resistance will be in the zone of 102.30, the following one will be 103.50, support levels will be 100.20 and 99.00;

as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July  2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit.  With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level;
•   GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivotpointof 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit;
•   the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound,seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00;
•   USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternativeviewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of0.9550 andthe pivotpointof 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend;    
• Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on allmain time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 andD1 agree with this scenario;
• opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivotpointat 0.9880, the first support will be at  0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July  2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit.  With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level;
•   GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivotpointof 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit;
•   the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound,seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00;
•   USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternativeviewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of0.9550 andthe pivotpointof 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend;    
• Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on allmain time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 andD1 agree with this scenario;
• opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivotpointat 0.9880, the first support will be at  0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 – 05 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of0.9550 andthe pivotpointof 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements, due to be released on Wednesday, were supposed to change this trend. And that was the case: the miracle didn’t happen, to the utter disappointment of investors, the interest rate was kept on hold at 0.5%, and thus the greenback fell against euro by around 200 points;
•   GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and for the second consecutive week the pair had been moving within the range of 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivotpointof 1.3200. Bearish sentiment was expected to predominate at the market, but news from the USA weighed in on here, whereby the pair ticked up a little bit and transited from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper one;
•   the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the retracement was over, and, having broken the support of 105.50, the pair would go south to the next support in the area of 103.50. But a reservation, declaring that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision could make certain adjustments, was also made here. And as it turned out to be higher as it was expected (–0.1% versus expected –0.2%), yen reinforced its positions against the US dollar even more, reaching the level of 102.00 by the end of the week;
•   USD/CHF – as it was expected, till the mid-week the pair kept bullish biasand went up to the mark of 0.9950. And then, as often happens during coming out of headline news, mirrored the acting of EUR/USD, and, having broken through the support levels of 0.9840 and 0.9800, it went down, wrapping up the week at 0.9700 - the area of the third support, indicated by experts.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to EUR/USD, opinions of experts were split equally. 50% of them, backed by the graphical analysis on H1 as well as by 90% of indicators on H4 and on D1, tend to believe that the pair will continue rising and try to consolidate in the area of 1.1250–1.1300. As for the second half of experts, in their opinion the pair is currently keeping within the upper boundary of the range of 1.0955–1.1190, having bounced off which it should start going south. With this it should be taken into account that on August 5, 2016 NFP data – the key indicator of economic health of the USA - will be released, and they usually result in plummeting of exchange rate of buck. According to some forecasts NFP for this month can drop from 287kto 175k;
• Brexit picture is still mixed, that’s why 75% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis and indicators on D1, believe that GBP/USD will continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335 with the pivotpointof 1.3200. And only 15% of analysts do not rule out the possibility that it will try to retest July lows in the area of 1.2800 again. NFP data as well as ECB meeting on Wednesday and a series of headline news from the Bank of England, due to be released on Thursday, August 04, can influence formation of a new trend;
• as to the future of USD/JPY, 30% of analysts in line with 100% of indicators reckon that the pair will try to go down to the level of 100.00. Almost 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on ?4 andD1 do not agree with this version. In their opinion the level of 101.50 will become a strong support to the pair, and backing on it, the pair will make attempts to reach the resistance of 103.60, and if it will be broken through – even get to 106.50. And, finally, the third scenario is offered by remaining 30% of analysts, voting for a sideways trend alongside the pivotpointof 102.50;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, here experts along with the graphical analysis on H4 predict that the pair will move in a sideways channel of 0.9660–0.9720 for a while, and afterwards it will go down to the support of 0.9500. Such a scenario will be more likely if the forecast for change in NFP will turn out to be correct.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

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