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Generalized Forex Forecast for 6 – 10 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast :

• the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that the pair might first rise to the level of 1.1170, and then – even up to 1.1240, following which it would reverse and start going south. This scenario also considered the fact that according to manyauthoritative sources the key indicator of economic situation in the USA – Nonfarm payrolls (Nonfarm employment change) – would show its gradual growth. Until Friday the pair had been moving strictly in accordance with this forecast – on Tuesday it reached the first resistance of 1.1173, rebounded, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the area of the second resistance at 1.1220, following which it reversed and fiercely went south. However, Friday release of data from the USA changed the situation dramatically – actual NFP reading turned out to be 4 times (!) less than it was expected, and thus US dollar plunged by nearly 250 points;
• as to GBP/USD, over the last several weeks the level of1.4500 was viewed as a medium-term pivotpoint for this pair. That’s why according to the readings of the graphical analysis the support zone was supposed to coincide with this line. But jitters and heightened volatilityahead of Brexit allowed the pair to drop below it by 115 points. However, afterwards it returned to the above-mentioned pivot point and wrapped up the week at the level of 1.4514;
• a sideways trend with the main resistance at 111.00 and support at 108.50 was deemed to be the most probable scenario for USD/JPY. Similar to EUR/USD, the pair first had been moving virtually within the predetermined range, however, the unexpected NFP data dropped the pair to the month-old values just in several hours;
• the forecast, provided by the graphical analysis for USD/CHF, suggested that it would return to the zone of 0.9700 and it turned out to be absolutely correct, the pair finished the week at the level of 0.9754 – which is 200 pointslower than the level it had started from.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to the future of EUR/USD, 100% of indicators point upwards. However, the vast majority of experts (around 80%) continue to insist that the pair will go down at least to the level of 1.1100. As to the forecast for summer, in their opinion during this period the pair may move further down – to the mark of 1.1000. The graphical analysis gives more cautious forecasts. AccordingtoitsreadingsonН4 andD1, the pair may first go down towards the support of 1.1283 (the next support will be at 1.1200), and then it will surge upwardsto the high of 1.1450. Following which it will after all go south getting closer to the local bottom at the level of 1.1130;
• as to the acting of GBP/USD, analysts’ opinions are split almost equally – 45% vote for its fall, 45% - for its rise, and 10% - for the sideways trend. 75% ofindicatorsonD1 along with the graphical analysis also vote for the sideways movement of the pair, which seems to be the most probable for the upcoming week. As before the pivot point is at the level of 1.4500, the support isat the areas of 1.4455, 1.4400, 1.4330, the resistanceis at 1.4535, 1.4600 and 1.4740;
• analysts’ viewsonthefutureofUSD/JPYdiffer, somepredictitsrise (50%) and others expect a sideways trend (the other 50%), none of them predicts its fall this week. Of course the pair may reach its May low of 105.50, however, it will be a short-term movement, and its main trend is south-oriented – towards the pivot point of 110.00;
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a difference of experts’ opinions and the technical analysis once again. 90% of indicators point down, but 60% of analysts predict surge of the pair to the level of 0.9850. The graphical analysis also doesn’t rule out a similar short-term uptick, however, the analysis on Н4 as well as onD1continues to insist that a deep decline to the support of 0.9500 may follow. As to the medium-term forecast, it also remains the same, in spite of its fluctuations the pair should reach the benchmark level of 1.0000.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 13 – 17 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

making forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming month, the majority of experts (around 80%) insisted that the pair would go down at least to the level of 1.1100. Eventually, following the speech of the president of the ECB Mario Draghi, the pair did start going south and wrapped up the week in the middle between the level of support of 1.1283 and 1.1200, indicated on the basis of the data, provided by the graphical analysis;

ahead of Brexit the volatility of GBP/USD is increasing day by day. As a reminder, last week opinions of analysts were split almost equally – 45% voted for the pair’s rise, 45% - for its fall, and 10% - for the sideways channel and fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 1.4500. As a result, the pair first went up to the specified line, then it reached the mark of 1.4660, in total moving upwards by 300 points in one-and-a-half day, following which it reversed and turned back to the Pivot Point, and then it plunged, breaking through all expected levels of support and eventually dropping by 500 points;

and as to the forecast for USD/JPY, it may be considered to be fully fulfilled. All 100% of experts unanimously ruled out the fall of this pair, therewith one half of them voted for its rise, the other half – for its horizontal movement. Eventually, failing to break through the level of support at 106.30, the pair went up by 150 points, and then it returned to the early week marks, identifying the level of 107.00 as the Pivot Point;

as to the acting of USD/CHF, once again the graphical analysis proved to be right, over a period of several weeks it had been insistently warning of a possible fall of the pair to the support of 0.9500. Eventually the pair almost reached the predetermined target, going down to the level of 0.9577, following which it rebounded and ended the week in the area of 0.9640.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• the medium-term forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – declining to the level of 1.1000 during the month. 70% of experts agree to this scenario. As to its acting in the upcoming week, the experts combined with the graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on D1 predict a sideways movement with a predominance of bearish trends and the support at 1.1210. The graphical analysis on D1 provides an alternative point of view. Even though it also predicts a horizontal trend, according to its opinion the pair should first rise to the high of 1.4440, and only then it should go down to the support of 1.1210, and then even further down – to the level of 1.1135;

as to GBP/USD, the graphical analysis seems to be aware of the approaching Brexit referendum. For at least it refuses to make any forecasts on Н1, Н4, and D1. However, opinions of indicators and experts differ drastically: if 100% of the former point down, then 90% of others reckon that the pair would tend to return to the Pivot Point of 1.4500. Surge upwards to the resistance of 1.4400 is mentioned as the minimum goal;

surprisingly opinions of experts concerning the future of USD/JPY concurred with both readings of the indicators and graphical analysis. According to their joint decision, the pair will continue moving alongside the Pivot Point of 107.00. The first support will be at 106.50, the second support will be at 105.50, the resistance will be in the areas of 107.50, 107.90 and 108.70;

as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – the experts identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, and the graphical analysis reckons that this bottom would be at the level of 0.9600. With this, the attempts of the bulls to return the pair to the zone of 0.9700 – 0.9750 are pointed out. As to the 30-day forecast, the opinions vary: the analysts keep insisting on the pair’s attempts to reach the level of 1.0000, and the graphical analysis suggests that when the pair bounces off the resistance of 0.9750, the pair will go down to the lows of early May in the area of 0.9445.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 20 – 24 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

• making a forecast for EUR/USD, both experts and technical analysis unanimously voted for a sideways trend with a bearish sentiment, which was 100% fulfilled – discrepancy between the levels of the beginning and the end of the week made just around 20 points, therewith the pair tended to go south. The graphical analysis on Н4 pointed to the support of 1.1210, and, having reached this level on Tuesday, the pair bounced off it and moved upwards on Wednesday. The pair succeeded to break through the above-mentioned support only on Thursday and, as predicted by the graphical analysis on D1, the pair quickly reached the bottom at the area of 1.1135, following which it returned to the values of the early week;
• we couldn’t find any compromise for GBP/USD between the experts and the technical analysis ahead of Brexit. Eventually during the week, the pair drew a chart very similar to the chart of EUR/USD. The only forecast, made and completely panned out, was an increased volatility of the pair, as a result of which a weekly range of its fluctuations exceeded 350 points;
• as to the forecast for USD/JPY, surprisingly opinions of the analysts coincided with both readings of the indicators and the graphical analysis. According to their consensus the pair should continue moving alongside the pivot point of 107.00. However, on Thursday due to release of the Bank of Japan interest rate decisions the pair easily broke through the support at 105.50 and it sharply plunged, reaching the two-year-old levels;
• as to the acting of USD/CHF, both the experts and the graphical analysis agreed that the pair reached the local bottom at the area of 0.9550 – 0.9600. The pair really failed to fall below these marks and it wrapped up the week at the level of 0. 9590. As to the striving of the pair to return to the area of 0.9700 – 0.9750, the pair made four such attempts during the week, however it failed to rise above the mark of 0.9686.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• making forecast for EUR/USD, 60% of experts, backed by 80% of indicators on Н4, reckon that the pair would go up to the zone of 1.1340 – 1.1400. As to the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 and indicators on a daily interval, they believe that within the next few days the pair won’t rise above 1.1300 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.1200 – 1.1300. The next support will be at 1.1150;
• as to GBP/USD, it’s virtually impossible to give a holistic forecast ahead of Brexit. As a reminder, a plebiscite among the residents of the Foggy Albion, will be held on Thursday, June 23, and its results will be made public the next day – on Friday, June 24. According to some analysts, if British people vote to leave EU, their national currency may plunge by over 4000 points, down to 1.1000. It is fair to say, that the majority of experts (around 65%) remains optimistic and bullish, though no one indicates any specific growth points. As to the forecast from Monday to Wednesday, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, the pair has a lot of chances to drop to the area of 1.4100;
• the analysts and the graphical analysis agree that the level of 103.40 is the local bottom for USD/JPY. According to their opinion, for some time the pair will be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it will get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast remains the same. The experts and the graphical analysis identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, the resistance will be at 0.9700, the overall sentiment – bearish. But once again, we’d like to remind, that results of Brexit can sufficiently influence not only GBP/USD, but also all other major currency pairs.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

• all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;
• last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;
• the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of 103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 – 106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);
• as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;
• as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;
• as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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