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Forex Forecast for 28 March - 1 April 2016

First, an overview of last week’s forecast:

regarding EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts that predicted a fall were right. The forecast of graphical analysis on H4 also turned out correct, indicating that last week’s bottom would be around 1.1130. On Thursday, the pair almost reached this level, stopping at 1.1143;

the forecasts about GBP/USD’s sharp drop panned out 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower boundary of the sideways channel – at 1.4360, broke through it and plunged to support at ​​1.4230. Then, trying to reach last February’s lows, it went even further down to 1.4080;

the analysts and graphical analysis claimed that USD/JPY had reached its bottom and therefore should bounce upwards to 113.00, which happened. The pair wrapped up the week at 113.03;

the USD/CHF pair was predicted to rise to 0.9850. The pair was just short of it when it got to 0.9786 on Friday. Thus, this forecast can be considered as fulfilled at least by 90%.

 

Forecast for Upcoming Week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted :

• this week will be filled with releases of various important economic data. Perhaps, that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the pair’s rise and transition to 1.1340-1.1470. The rest of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4, on the other hand, point to a possible fall to 1.1055. In this case, there may be a slight rise to resistance at 1.1220 before the fall;

according to the analysts, the prospects for GBP/USD seem quite ambiguous – 40% of the analysts are for a rise, about the same number are for a drop and 20% predict a sideways trend. However, the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 clearly point down. With this, GBP/USD may go up slightly to 1.4170-1.4240, then it should move downwards – first to support at 1.4070, then to 1.3970 and further down to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

the experts’ opinions about USD/JPY are split almost equally. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show a sideways channel with two scenarios for the boundaries – fluctuations around 112.30-113.50 on H4 and around 110.70-114.00 on D1 with gradual consolidation near support. In the longer term, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to USD/JPY’s subsequent sharp rebound from the lower boundary up to 117.00, which may happen in the second half of April;

there is nothing new for USD/CHF – 65% of the experts, graphical analysis and 70% of the indicators on H4 predict a rise first to resistance at 0.9880 and then further to 1.0100. Support is still at 0.9650 like last week.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 4 - 8 April 2016

Overview of last week’s predictions:

• 
  

in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;
all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;
technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60;
USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.

 

Upcoming Week.

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;
  
• the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;
  
• the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;
  
• about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around ​​1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.
  

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016

Overview of Last Week’s Forecast:

EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of ​​1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;

the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;

graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;

the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.

 

Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;

the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;

all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;

about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016

Overview of Last Week’s Forecast:

EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of ​​1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;

the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;

graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;

the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.

 

Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;

the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;

all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;

about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecas:

• D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;
• despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;
• the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;
• the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.
  

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted :

• according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;
• even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;
• it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;
• about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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