official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[KostiaForexMart]

The main events by the morning: July 10

Bitcoin has updated its historical maximum amid growing investor interest. The cryptocurrency exchange rate rose to a record $112,022 due to increased risk appetite and stable demand from institutional investors. Bitcoin is supported by the friendly policy of the Donald Trump administration, as well as the plans of Trump Media & Technology Group to launch a cryptocurrency ETF with investments in BTC. On Thursday morning, bitcoin is trading at $111,296. Since the beginning of the year, the asset has risen in price by 19%, and in 12 months it has almost doubled.

Trump will impose a 50% duty on copper supplied to the United States from August 1. «Having received a thorough assessment of our national security, I announce the introduction of duties on copper in the amount of 50% starting from August 1, 2025,» he wrote. On the Truth Social network, the president noted that copper is the second most used material by the US Department of Defense.

The United States imposes a 50% duty on imports from Brazil from August 1. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil starting on August 1. The measure is connected, according to him, with Brazil's «attacks» on freedom of speech and elections in the United States. In response, Brazilian President Lula da Silva promised mirror measures. Earlier, Trump also announced the imposition of duties against a number of other countries, including the Philippines, Algeria and Japan.

FTSE 100 has updated its historical maximum amid the growth of mining stocks. The index rose by 1.05% to a record 8,960.72 points due to rising metal prices. The leaders were Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Fresnillo and Endeavour. Investors are ignoring trade tensions despite new US tariffs, including a 50% duty on copper imports. Since the beginning of the year, the index has gained 9.5%, supported by capital inflows and a trade agreement with the United States.
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[KostiaForexMart]

Morning Brief: July 11

Bitcoin has updated its historical maximum. At the moment, the value of the cryptocurrency reached $ 118,661 thousand. The exchange rate increased by almost $5,000 per night.

For the first time in history, solar panels became the main source of energy in the European Union in June. The share of solar energy in the region's energy mix rose to 22.1% last month, or 45.4 TWh. Nuclear power plants and wind turbines accounted for 22% and 16%, respectively. The reason for the record is the increase in capacity and high solar activity. Against this background, electricity prices in France fell below 0 due to a sharp increase in the surplus in the grid.

OPEC has lowered its forecasts for global oil demand for the next four years. The organization also raised its long-term expectations, given the growing consumption in developing countries. In 2025, global oil demand is 105 million barrels per day. According to OPEC's forecast, by 2026 this figure will increase to 106.3 million barrels per day, and by 2029 it will reach 111.6 million.

The BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro prompted Trump to impose 50% tariffs on Brazil. The main trigger for the US president is the efforts of the BRICS countries to de-dollarize. Brazilian President Lula responded by saying that Brazil can do without trade with the United States and will look for other partners to replace it. If no agreement can be reached, Brazil will impose reciprocal trade duties on U.S. products from August 1.

The United States is imposing 35% duties on Canadian imports from August 1, citing retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa. Donald Trump said that the reason was the actions of Canada and the problem with fentanyl. The President noted that changes are possible with cooperation in the fight against the substance. He also warned that further increases in Canadian tariffs would lead to an increase in U.S. duties. 

The volatility of the US dollar has decreased, but analysts believe that it may become a «risky» currency again. The reasons include political instability, trade tariffs, Fed independence, fiscal concerns, and asset diversification. The fall in the exchange rate due to Trump's threats caused rumors about the loss of the status of a safe haven asset. In the short term, the dollar remains unstable. 
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[KostiaForexMart]

Gold Resumes Its Uptrend

Gold rose at the opening of the Asian session on Monday as traders evaluated differing views among U.S. Federal Reserve officials on how President Donald Trump's tariff policy might affect inflation, increasingly leaning toward a dovish stance.

This price jump reflects a broader picture of uncertainty surrounding the global economy and monetary policy. Investors traditionally turn to gold in times of turbulence, and the current situation is no exception. Diverging opinions within the Fed on the future course of monetary policy are adding fuel to the fire. On one side, some advocate keeping interest rates at current levels, citing potential inflationary pressures stemming from Trump's trade policies. On the other, supporters of more aggressive action warn that delaying rate hikes could entrench inflation expectations. This uncertainty over the Fed's next steps is prompting traders to act cautiously and seek safety in haven assets such as gold.

The precious metal rose by 0.5%, reaching nearly 3366 dollars per ounce after Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week expressed support for a rate cut, while Governor Michelle Bowman also signaled readiness for such a move. Meanwhile, other Fed officials, including Adriana Kugler, maintained a more cautious tone due to concerns over persistent inflation driven by tariffs. Lower interest rates generally benefit gold, as it does not yield interest.

The divergence in views also coincides with ongoing pressure from Trump on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. The White House is reportedly evaluating potential successors and has pledged to choose someone who would lower interest rates. Last week, the president also denied media reports claiming he had spoken with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had allegedly warned him about market backlash if Powell were dismissed.

On the trade front, European Union representatives are expected to meet this week to develop a contingency plan in the event of a failure to reach a deal with the U.S. It is clear that many investors will be watching for progress in negotiations with a number of trade partners ahead of the August 1 deadline set by Trump for imposing so-called reciprocal tariffs. A negative outcome could support further gold gains. So far this year, gold has risen by more than a quarter as geopolitical tensions and concerns over dollar-denominated assets have triggered a flight to safe havens.

As for the current technical outlook for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 3369. This would open the way for a move toward 3400, although breaking above that level could prove difficult. The furthest upside target stands at 3444. In the event of a decline, bears will try to take control around the 3341 level. A breakout below that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold toward the 3313 low, with the potential to reach 3291.
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[mom1987]

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[KostiaForexMart]

The European Union Takes on China

While the euro is gradually recovering after a major sell-off observed for most of this month, recent data shows that the latest round of EU sanctions has targeted a number of Chinese companies and banks, prompting Beijing to protest and promise a response to protect its own companies.

On Friday, the European Union imposed sanctions on two Chinese banks and five China-based companies as part of its latest package of sanctions against Russia. These measures, aimed at preventing sanctions evasion, triggered a sharp reaction from Beijing and further strained EU–China relations. In its response on Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the sanctions had severely damaged trade, economic, and financial ties, and that it would take necessary steps to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and financial institutions.

The ministry's statement emphasized China's determination to resist external pressure and defend its economic interests. Specific countermeasures are expected to be announced soon, potentially including restrictions on European companies operating in China.

This is the first time Chinese banks have been added to the EU sanctions list since 2022. According to the European Council, Heihe Rural Commercial Bank Co. and Heilongjiang Suifenhe Rural Commercial Bank Co. were sanctioned for providing cryptocurrency-related services, which the EU believes violated the purpose of existing sanctions.

Previously, the EU had proposed adding these institutions to a list of financial entities allegedly assisting Moscow by processing transactions or providing export financing for trade deals that circumvent EU restrictions. However, as noted above, China promptly protested the proposal once it became public. In June, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian companies comply with WTO rules and market principles, are not directed against third parties, and should not be disrupted or interfered with.

According to the South China Morning Post, earlier this month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed to take retaliatory measures if banks were added to the list. China's close ties with Russia had already led to similar sanctions from the U.S., prompting banks to reassess their operations and client bases. Some Chinese state-owned banks tightened restrictions on financing Russian clients early last year after the U.S. imposed secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions.

As reported earlier, in February 2022, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. took steps to limit financing for Russian commodities, even though Western sanctions at the time did not yet target Russia's energy sector. The country's largest state-owned banks also have experience complying with past U.S. sanctions on Iran and North Korea to avoid losing access to the U.S. dollar clearing system.

This incident highlights the growing complexity of the geopolitical landscape and the risks companies face when operating under sanctions. However, the EU's actions have raised concerns among other countries that fear similar measures and their impact on the global economy. An escalation of the trade conflict between the EU and China could lead to further fragmentation of the global economy and reinforce protectionist trends. The path forward will depend on the willingness of both sides to engage in dialogue and seek compromise.

As for the current technical outlook on EUR/USD: Buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1700 level. Only then will a test of 1.1720 become feasible. From there, a move toward 1.1750 is possible, though achieving that without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1780 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only near the 1.1666 level. If there is no response there, it would be reasonable to wait for a retest of the 1.1640 low or consider opening long positions from the 1.1615 level.

As for GBP/USD: Pound buyers need to break through the immediate resistance at 1.3500. Only this would allow a push toward 1.3540, a level above which further gains will be difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3580 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control around 1.3460. If successful, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3435 low, with the potential to test 1.3400.
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[KostiaForexMart]

Wall Street's new blow: GM loses $1 billion, RTX shocks investors

Markets soar: S&P 500 hits new record on earnings optimism

The US stock market ended Tuesday at a record high, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time peak. Investors closely monitored earnings from key corporations and tried to gauge the future direction of US-China trade negotiations.

Auto industry hit hard: GM slips sharply General Motors shares plunged 8.1% after reporting a $1 billion hit to profits due to higher tariffs. This reignited concerns over the consequences of the White House's protectionist stance. Ford also came under pressure, with its stock falling about 1%.

Tesla holds steady ahead of report Tesla shares gained 1.1% ahead of its quarterly results. Alphabet, also set to report, rose 0.65%.

Investors bet on Artificial Intelligence Expectations of massive AI investments boosted the most expensive and promising tech stocks, helping drive the S&P 500's latest surge.

Tech sector mixed despite optimism Despite overall enthusiasm, some major tech stocks slipped. Microsoft and Meta (banned in Russia) both dropped about 1%.

Defense sector under pressure RTX shares dropped 1.6% amid trade tension concerns, despite strong demand for aircraft engines and maintenance. Lockheed Martin suffered an even steeper fall: quarterly profits plummeted nearly 80%, and the stock sank nearly 11%.

Trade uncertainty mounts: investors await Washington's next move Global markets remain weighed down by the lack of clarity on US trade policy. With Trump's administration setting an August 1 deadline for deals with several countries, investors are increasingly uneasy as details remain scarce.

US–China: another meeting, another delay? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to meet his Chinese counterpart next week. The key topic: a potential delay in the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports, currently slated for August 12. Pressure is rising on both sides.

Talks with India stall, EU considers response While there is still hope for an extension with China, negotiations with other partners appear deadlocked. Optimism over an India deal is fading fast. Meanwhile, the EU is actively considering retaliatory measures against the US.

Markets brace: modest S&P gains, mixed index performance The US stock market closed with slight changes. The S&P 500 rose 0.06% to 6309.62. Nasdaq fell 0.39% to 20892.69, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.40% to 44502.44.

Health care and real estate lead gains Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, nine ended in positive territory. Health care led the way with a 1.9% gain, followed by real estate, up 1.78%.

Trading volume above average Investor activity was strong: 18.8 billion shares were traded, above the 20-day average of 17.7 billion.

Philip Morris takes a hit: ZYN disappoints Shares of tobacco giant Philip Morris dropped 8.43% after a disappointing earnings report. Revenue missed forecasts, especially due to weaker-than-expected sales of nicotine pouches (ZYN), previously seen as a major growth driver.

S&P 500 earnings focus: tech at the core Experts predict strong Q2 earnings for S&P 500 companies. Analysts from LSEG I/B/E/S project average earnings growth of around 7%, largely driven by leading tech firms.

Japan surges on US trade breakthrough Japan's stock market hit a one-year high Wednesday, buoyed by a new trade deal with the US that reduces tariffs on Japanese car exports. The news lifted investor sentiment in Asia and raised hopes for a similar deal with the EU, supporting gains in European futures.

Trump reveals details: better terms than expected President Trump announced the new agreement includes a 15% car import tariff—lower than the previously discussed 25%. The statement followed a separate deal with the Philippines involving a 19% import duty.

Europe prepares for talks: hopes for compromise rise Trump also revealed an EU delegation would arrive in the US on Wednesday for trade negotiations. The announcement rekindled hopes of a deal despite Brussels simultaneously preparing countermeasures for a failed outcome by the August 1 deadline.

European futures rise EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 1.3%, and Germany's DAX gained 0.6%, driven by the trade agenda and de-escalation hopes.

Nikkei rallies sharply Japan's Nikkei index surged 3.7%, led by carmakers encouraged by news of tariff cuts from a projected 25% to 15%. Mazda shares jumped 17%, while Toyota gained 13.6%.

South Korea's auto sector climbs amid trade optimism Shares of major South Korean automakers rose strongly on hopes that the US–Japan deal could pave the way for progress in US–South Korea trade talks.

Japan's economy gets breathing room Analysts say the US deal helped reduce key trade risks for Japan's economy, giving the Bank of Japan more leeway to tackle inflation possibly via interest rate hikes.

Yen loses ground, Dollar strengthens Initial gains in the yen from trade news proved short-lived. Political uncertainty gave the US dollar the upper hand again, pushing it up 0.2% to 146.95.

US–China talks set to resume Another bright spot: US and Chinese officials are expected to meet in Stockholm. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed talks may delay the August 12 tariff deadline.

China and regional markets gain ground China's large-cap index rose 0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.8%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index gained 1%.

Euro slips, ECB decision awaited The euro edged down 0.1% to $1.1737 as markets expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting following eight consecutive cuts. The uncertainty stems from potential new US tariffs.

US bond yields rise again US 10-year Treasury yields rose two basis points to 4.36%, after dropping three points the previous day.

Gold dips slightly Spot gold prices fell modestly to $3,422 per ounce, as traders monitored the dollar and inflation expectations.

Oil prices rise on diesel spike Oil prices rose on a sharp increase in US diesel prices, with inventories at their lowest for this season since 1996. WTI crude gained 0.4% to $65.60 a barrel. Brent also rose 0.4% to $68.88 a barrel.
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[KostiaForexMart]

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union are nearing a tariff agreement, are maintaining positive sentiment in the markets. However, these factors have been putting pressure on the safe-haven asset — gold — for the second consecutive day.analytics6882045ce33cf.jpgAt the same time, the US dollar is attracting some buying interest and appears to have broken a three-day losing streak. This contributes to capital outflows from bullion and adds downward pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, a strong dollar recovery remains unlikely under current conditions due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the future path of Fed rate cuts. Additionally, concerns about the independence of the US central bank could limit dollar strength and lend some support to the precious metal.

On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump stated that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. In addition, reports of progress in US-EU trade talks, with potential returns of 15%, are boosting investor confidence and continuing to weigh on gold as a safe-haven for a second day.

Markets do not expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July, despite Trump's ongoing pressure to reduce borrowing costs. Moreover, Trump has personally criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining current interest rate levels and has repeatedly called for his resignation.

Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both appointed by Trump, have supported a rate cut at the upcoming July 30 policy meeting. These comments are keeping the dollar suppressed, thereby offering some support to gold.

Today, traders should monitor the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which will provide new insight into the global economic outlook and influence demand for precious metals. In addition, the European Central Bank's key policy decision may trigger market volatility and impact the XAU/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that gold prices may find support in the $3358–3360 zone. A convincing break below this level would open the way toward $3335, where the 50-day SMA lies. This level would become a critical support; a decisive drop below it would shift the bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, momentum above the key $3400 level could face resistance at $3438–3440, which aligns with the July high. A breakout above this zone would accelerate the bullish momentum toward the all-time high near the psychological level of $3500, last seen in April.
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[KostiaForexMart]

Wall Street on edge: Trump's Fed visit, UnitedHealth probe, rising S&P and Nasdaq

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs amid AI enthusiasm
Thursday's session ended with record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Investor optimism was fueled by strong earnings from Alphabet, boosting appetite for other leading tech names linked to artificial intelligence development. Tesla, however, underperformed following disappointing earnings, reflecting market unease.

Alphabet lifts market, Tesla dissapoints
Alphabet shares rose 1% after the tech giant's executives expressed confidence in the effectiveness of their AI investments, citing early significant returns from major capital outlays.

In contrast, Tesla failed to impress. Weak financial results pushed its stock lower, signaling investor disappointment.

UnitedHealth and IBM under pressure
UnitedHealth shares plunged nearly 5% after the company said it is cooperating with the US Justice Department in a probe into its Medicare programs. The disclosure came as new criminal and civil investigations emerged.

IBM shares fell even more, down almost 8%, as its Q2 report failed to reassure investors. The decline was driven by weakening sales in its core software division.

Honeywell slips despite upbeat outlook
Honeywell beat analyst estimates and raised its full-year guidance. Still, shares dropped more than 6%, surprising investors despite the upbeat earnings news.

Closing numbers
At the end of the session, the S&P 500 gained 0.07%, closing at 6,363.35. The Nasdaq rose 0.18%, finishing at 21,057.96. The Dow Jones declined 0.70%, falling to 44,693.91.

American Airlines nosedives
Shares of American Airlines came under heavy pressure, plunging nearly 10%. The sharp decline followed bleak guidance from management for the third quarter. The company warned of significant losses driven by weakening demand for domestic travel.

Sector in limbo: trade wars and new risks
The airline industry continues to face unprecedented uncertainty, reminiscent of the pandemic-era turbulence. This is due to global trade conflicts stoked by US President Donald Trump, which have already disrupted established patterns in the sector.

Trump and FOMC: shifting expectations
The financial community closely monitored Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve's headquarters. The president has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, blaming him for keeping interest rates too high.

While most economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, CME Group's FedWatch tool now puts the probability of a rate cut in September at 60%.

Labor market remains resilient
A fresh report from the US Labor Department added a dose of optimism — initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, significantly better than forecasts. The data signals continued strength in the labor market.

Inflation enters new phase
US business activity accelerated in July. However, companies raised prices on goods and services, aligning with analyst expectations. The inflationary push is tied to growing import costs, adding new pressure to consumer prices.

European markets in red ahead of US trade developments
On Friday, European equities declined as investors awaited key announcements on EU-US trade relations. The auto sector was hit particularly hard. Nervous investors are watching closely as the White House is expected to announce a deadline for new import tariffs as early as next week.

STOXX 600 dips after hitting six-week high
By Friday morning, the pan-European STOXX 600 index had dropped 0.6%, settling at 548.16 points. The pullback followed Thursday's 1.5-month high. Despite the retreat, the index remains in positive territory for the week.

UK market retreats from record
The UK's FTSE 100 index also posted a decline of 0.4%, pulling back from its all-time high reached on Thursday. Similarly, most regional exchanges ended the morning in negative territory.

Auto sector under pressure: top decliners
European carmakers were among the hardest hit. The sector-specific index dropped 1.4%, led by a sharp sell-off in French auto parts maker Valeo. Its shares tumbled 12.4% after the company downgraded its annual sales forecast, falling short of expectations.

Volkswagen and Traton adjust forecasts
Shares of Volkswagen, Europe's largest automaker, slipped 2.4% after the company revised its outlook amid renewed tariff concerns. Traton, Volkswagen's truck division, came under even heavier pressure, with shares sliding 8.1% following a downgrade of its own guidance.

Puma suffers brutal sell-off
The steepest decline among major stocks came from Puma. Shares of the German sportswear giant plunged 18.7% after the company cut its full-year forecast and reported weak quarterly results.

Week of talks and new agreements
Despite elevated volatility and prevailing negative sentiment, investors welcomed trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Optimism also persists around a potential agreement between the US and the European Union, with negotiations still ongoing.
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[KostiaForexMart]

Nike soars, Dow Jones falls, tariffs weigh — what's happening in global markets right now?

Wall Street Charges Ahead: S&P 500 Notches Sixth Consecutive Record
On Monday, US stock markets delivered more surprises as the S&P 500 ended the session at another all-time high for the sixth day running. The Nasdaq also reached its own record level, despite heightened market volatility. Investors are now weighing the fresh trade deal between the US and the EU while bracing for a week packed with significant updates.

US and EU Move Toward Lower Tariffs
After weekend talks, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a breakthrough framework agreement that will see European import tariffs halved to 15 percent. The planned tariff hike scheduled for August first was avoided, easing tensions between the two sides. France, however, was quick to criticize the deal, calling it a capitulation.

America Strengthens Global Trade Ties
The US-EU accord follows a string of recent trade agreements, including new deals announced with Japan and Indonesia. Meanwhile, senior officials from the US and China resumed negotiations in Stockholm, attempting to find common ground and resolve ongoing trade disputes between the economic giants.

Strong Signs Amid Cautious Optimism
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 64.36 points, or 0.14 percent, settling at 44,837.56. The S&P 500 edged up by 1.13 points, or 0.02 percent, finishing at 6,389.77. The Nasdaq Composite climbed by 70.27 points, or 0.33 percent, closing at 21,178.58.

The S&P 500 has now set six consecutive closing highs and is on track for its fifteenth record finish this year. US stocks have staged a steady recovery from the sell-off in early April that was triggered by the announcement of fresh tariffs from the White House.

Artificial Intelligence Hype and Corporate Reports Drive Market Surge
Optimism around the future of artificial intelligence continues to fuel major stock gains worldwide. Investor enthusiasm is further boosted by encouraging news on recent trade agreements and by early indications that company earnings this season may surpass even the most optimistic forecasts.

Eyes on the Fed as Political Pressure Mounts
This week, the spotlight shifts to the US Federal Reserve, with Wednesday's policy statement eagerly anticipated by market watchers. Most analysts expect interest rates to remain steady, despite persistent calls from President Trump urging Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut lending costs.

Tech Titans Ready to Move the Market
Quarterly earnings announcements from industry leaders such as Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta are set to capture the market's attention and could shift investor sentiment in either direction, with each report under close scrutiny for signs of continued sector strength.

Fresh Economic Data in the Pipeline
Alongside the Fed meeting and corporate updates, investors are awaiting several key economic releases. Special focus will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as well as new figures for government-sector employment, which will help assess the impact of recent tariffs on consumer prices and the job market.

Nike Shines after Analyst Upgrade
Nike shares rallied by nearly four percent following an upbeat outlook from J.P. Morgan, whose analysts not only upgraded their rating but also issued a simple directive: buy.

Energy Outperforms While Real Estate Lags
The energy sector led the S and P's gains, climbing more than one percent due to a two percent surge in oil prices. In contrast, real estate and materials lagged behind, each sector closing lower by more than one percent.

Asian Stocks Slide as Euro Seeks a Foothold
Tuesday brought fresh declines across Asian stock exchanges, while the euro tried to recover after recent losses. Investors remain focused on the shortcomings of the US-EU trade agreement, which has done little to ease strict tariff measures. Persistent fears that these barriers will remain in place continue to dampen hopes for stronger growth and raise concerns about potential inflationary pressures.

Europe Reacts Warily to New Trade Terms
The initial relief surrounding the introduction of a fifteen percent tariff in Europe quickly faded, especially compared to the previous one to two percent rates that existed before Donald Trump's presidency. French and German leaders voiced disappointment, warning that the outcome hampers economic expansion, weakens bond and equity returns across the continent, and undermines the euro's strength.
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[KostiaForexMart]

Markets reel as UnitedHealth, Whirlpool's weak outlook drags indexes lower ahead of Fed decision

US stocks retreat as weak earnings weigh and investors await Fed
US equities closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from record highs. Disappointing earnings reports from major corporations pressured the market as investors chose to remain cautious ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcements.

Dow dragged down by healthcare and aerospace
Several Dow Jones constituents, including UnitedHealth, Boeing and Merck, reported their quarterly results, and all three stocks ended the day in negative territory. UnitedHealth tumbled 7.5 percent after cutting its profit outlook, becoming the main drag on the index. Boeing shares dropped 4.4 percent even though the company's second-quarter loss was narrower than expected.

Merck delays HPV vaccine shipments to China
Merck also released its financial report and announced that shipments of its Gardasil HPV vaccine to China will remain suspended at least until the end of 2025 due to persistently weak demand. Its shares slid 1.7 percent following the update.

Tech giants take center stage this week
Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming earnings from mega-cap technology leaders including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple. Given their heavy weighting in the market, these results are expected to strongly influence trading sentiment.

Market close summary
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 204.57 points, or 0.46 percent, to close at 44,632.99. The S&P 500 declined 18.91 points, or 0.30 percent, finishing at 6,370.86. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 80.29 points, or 0.38 percent, to 21,098.29.

UPS and Whirlpool drag down the transport index
Shares of United Parcel Service tumbled 10.6 percent after the delivery giant released its quarterly earnings report and once again declined to provide annual guidance on revenue and margins. The move heightened concerns that President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies are weighing heavily on the company's operations.

The drop in UPS shares contributed to a 2.3 percent decline in the Dow Jones Transport Average, marking its steepest single-day percentage loss since May 21.

Whirlpool cuts outlook and sees sharp selloff
Whirlpool stock plummeted 13.4 percent after the home appliance manufacturer lowered its annual profit and dividend forecasts. The company cited mounting pressure from increased imports by competitors ahead of Trump's planned tariffs.

Procter and Gamble raises prices but fails to impress
Procter and Gamble shares edged down 0.3 percent after the consumer goods maker, known for products such as dishwashing liquid and toilet paper, issued an annual outlook that fell short of market expectations. The company also announced it would raise prices on certain products to offset the impact of tariffs.

Investors eye Fed decisions and progress in trade talks
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it announces its decision on Wednesday. Investors will be closely analyzing remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues on when potential rate cuts might begin.

Meanwhile, in Stockholm, the second day of trade negotiations between the United States and China concluded as the world's two largest economies continue efforts to resolve their ongoing dispute. President Trump said that, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the meeting with Chinese officials was described as highly productive.

Cautious gains in Asia as investors await Fed policy signals
Asian stocks edged higher on Wednesday as investors took a guarded stance following yet another round of US-China trade talks that ended without a major breakthrough. Market participants are now focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy announcement, seeking direction amid ongoing global uncertainty.

Taiwan lifts the region, while Japan and Hong Kong decline
The MSCI broad Asia-Pacific index gained 0.3 percent, buoyed by a rise in Taiwanese equities. In contrast, Japan's Nikkei dipped by 0.03 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.4 percent. Australia's market outperformed, climbing 0.7 percent.

Euro regains some ground
The euro advanced 0.2 percent to 1.1564 dollars, rebounding from its one-month low. The single currency found support on optimism surrounding trade discussions between the European Union and the Trump administration.

Packed economic calendar and tariff deadline ahead
Traders are bracing for a series of pivotal events in the coming days, including central bank decisions, corporate earnings releases, and key economic indicators. One of the most anticipated developments is President Donald Trump's upcoming statement on whether new tariffs will be imposed starting August first.

Fed expected to hold rates, but dissent may emerge
The Federal Reserve is widely projected to leave interest rates unchanged during Wednesday's policy meeting. However, some members of the central bank may push for a rate cut, citing signs of slowing growth.

Treasury yields fall as bond demand rises
US Treasury prices climbed ahead of the Fed meeting, pushing yields to their lowest levels in nearly four weeks. A strong seven-year bond auction helped ease recent concerns over waning demand for government debt.

Bank of Japan expected to stand pat on rates
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday. Market participants will be paying close attention to the central bank's commentary for clues on when the next rate hike might come. The path toward monetary tightening reopened after Japan and the United States reached a trade deal, giving the BOJ more flexibility.

Trade talks hit a stalemate
Global trade negotiations appear to be faltering as the deadline set by President Donald Trump to avert new tariffs draws near. Several countries are struggling to secure agreements with the US before the cutoff date.

US and China extend truce with little progress
On Tuesday, US and Chinese officials agreed to prolong their 90-day tariff truce, but no meaningful breakthroughs were announced. US authorities said President Trump must soon decide whether to extend the truce, which expires on August 12, or allow tariffs to escalate back into triple-digit territory.

India and South Korea brace for impact
India is preparing for the possibility that the United States could raise tariffs by 20 to 25 percent on certain exports. According to government sources, New Delhi has no plans to make fresh trade concessions ahead of the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, in Seoul, three South Korean cabinet ministers met with US Trade Representative Howard Lutnick in a last-ditch effort to secure an agreement.

Oil prices inch higher amid uncertainty
Brent crude futures rose 14 cents, or 0.19 percent, on Wednesday to settle at 72.65 dollars a barrel as markets digested the latest geopolitical developments.
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Dollar reclaims dominance on global stage

July turned out to be the month when the dollar reclaimed its leadership in the currency market, recovering all of June's losses and climbing 3.38% on the index. Fundamental factors played in its favor, and now the US currency is once again at the center of global capital flows.

Firstly, the prolonged political drama surrounding the Federal Reserve has come to an end: Trump eased pressure on the regulator, while the Fed demonstrated maximum independence, reaffirming that interest rates would remain high for as long as necessary to control inflation. The likelihood of a rate cut in September has significantly decreased. Markets interpreted this as a hawkish signal; where previously they had anticipated a near-guaranteed easing in September, many now expect a delay until October or even December, with some believing rates could remain elevated through 2026.

Secondly, the US has stepped up its foreign trade policy, striking several favorable agreements while also imposing new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries. The average tariff rate jumped from 2.3% to 15.2%, a sweeping reconfiguration of global trade aimed at reducing the deficit and supporting domestic production. For the dollar, this means additional demand: every trade win boosts budget revenues, curbs capital outflows, and reinforces confidence in the US economy.

Thirdly, economic data has been unspectacular but steady. The labor market remains the strongest pillar of the economy: jobless claims remain low, and new jobs continue to be created at an accelerating pace.

Incomes and expenditures rose in lockstep in June (both up 0.3%), indicating confidence among American consumers. Even inflation, despite localized spikes, remains under control: core PCE inflation holds at 2.8% year-on-year, and the deflator trend appears broadly balanced.

Notably, despite formal statements from the Fed about slowing growth, Jerome Powell continues to emphasize the strength of the labor market and a moderately restrictive policy stance.

This effectively shuts down talk of a near-term rate cut, at least until the emergence of truly negative economic surprises. Still, two FOMC members voted for a cut, the first time since 1993, signaling internal divisions. Nevertheless, the overall tone remains hawkish, supporting the dollar.

The external backdrop also favors the dollar: US economic growth reached 3% year-over-year in Q2 (following a contraction in Q1), and macro indicators continue to dispel fears of a recession.

There are no signs of significant slowdown or weakening consumer sentiment—America remains an island of stability amid turbulent markets in Europe and Asia.

Technical picture: momentum on USD side

Technically, July was a recovery month for the dollar. The DXY broke through key resistance levels and consolidated near the psychologically important 100.0 mark, a two-month high. Trends in major pairs now clearly favor the greenback:

EUR/USD dropped below 1.1450 and now trades near 1.142, its lowest in 1.5 months. A break below 1.1450 opens the way to 1.136 and 1.13, where key stop orders are likely clustered.

GBP/USD lost nearly 4% in July, hovering around 1.32. Support lies at 1.3160 and 1.3050. Until a reversal trigger appears, the pound remains under pressure.

USD/JPY: The yen is the weakest of the majors. The pair firmly holds above 150, with the next resistance at 152 and a target of 154.

Trading volumes in the dollar are rising, confirming the strength of the trend. While daily indicators show overbought conditions in some pairs, the correction has so far been mild. The dollar lacks a strong external trigger for reversal, and equity and commodity markets remain sluggish in response to macro developments.

The next key target for the DXY is the 100.5–101.1 zone, which hosts significant weekly resistance. A breakout could pave the way toward 102.2–103.

Seasonality also favors the dollar: August historically sees heightened volatility, when many investors lock in profits from risk assets and rotate into safe havens. Markets are beginning to prepare for the fall cycle of Fed and ECB decisions, as well as political events in the U.S. and EU, which further fuels demand for the dollar.

Outlook: USD holds edge, but correction risks rise

August is traditionally volatile for the dollar, but current fundamentals and technicals are clearly in its favor. If no major negative surprises hit the U.S. economy, the DXY could test the 101.5–102.2 range by mid-month. Key drivers include:

Strong US economy: As long as the labor market and consumer activity remain robust, the dollar faces little threat.

Fed policy: Any hints of easing will be countered by hawkish rhetoric. A rate pause already acts as support for the dollar.

Trade wars and tariffs: Every new tariff increases demand for dollars, as companies need more USD liquidity for transactions.

Seasonality: August typically sees increased interest in safe-haven assets amid low liquidity and traditional market shake-ups.

However, as the DXY nears the 101.5–102.2 range, corrections may emerge. Overbought conditions could prompt some speculators to take profits, especially if European and Chinese macro data begin to stabilize or if US labor figures disappoint. Another risk factor lies in US geopolitical tensions and pre-election battles, which could inject volatility.

Trading idea for August:

Buy the dollar on pullbacks against the euro, the pound, and the yen, with tight stops and profit-taking at key resistance levels. Targets: USD/JPY at 152–154, EUR/USD to 1.13, GBP/USD to 1.3050. Corrections are expected to be fast and sharp, so positions should be managed dynamically.

Conclusion:

Summer is a hot season for the dollar. The US economy sets the tempo, while the rest of the world struggles to keep up. Missing out on this trend would be a trader's mistake.
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Gold Resumes Its Rally

The price of gold stabilized after posting its strongest two-month gain last Friday, as traders assessed the implications of weak U.S. employment data for the economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

The unexpectedly soft jobs report, which showed a slowdown in hiring, prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding future Fed policy. The reduced likelihood of rates remaining elevated supported gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty and inflation. In the near term, gold will remain sensitive to incoming economic data, particularly inflation and labor market indicators. Any further signs of a U.S. economic slowdown could push the Fed toward a more accommodative stance, providing additional support for gold prices.

Spot gold reached around 3,360 dollars per ounce after a 2.2% increase. As mentioned above, the rally in the precious metal was driven by two main factors: the sharp slowdown in U.S. job growth, which increased bets on rate cuts, and President Donald Trump's introduction of some of the highest trade tariffs since the 1930s.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that only 73,000 new jobs were created in July, while figures for the previous two months were revised down by nearly 260,000. Trump also dismissed the head of the bureau just hours after the release of the report, triggering a market sell-off.

Gold has already risen more than 25% this year, as Trump's unpredictable policies and geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Investors and analysts are forecasting further gains, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and the possibility of rate cuts.

Technical Outlook for Gold Buyers now need to break through the nearest resistance at 3,369 dollars. This would open the way toward the 3,400 level, although breaking above that level will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 3,444 level. If gold declines, bears will try to regain control at 3,341. A break of that range would deal a significant blow to bullish positions and push gold toward the 3,313 low, with the potential to reach 3,291.
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