official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

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The main events by the morning: February 25

Putin held a meeting on the development of the rare earth metals industry. The Russian president said he did not rule out involving foreign partners, including the United States, in projects in this area. He also suggested thinking about launching an aluminum mining project in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, which could involve American companies. According to Putin, Russia is ready to supply the United States with 2 million tons of aluminum per year.

Bitcoin is falling: yesterday it was minus 5%, today it is minus 3%. Experts attribute the fall of the coin to the expectation of an increase in the key rate in the United States: inflation may unexpectedly surprise. The index of fear and greed in the crypto market has collapsed from a neutral level to the «extreme fear» zone. 

At the upcoming meeting between representatives of the United States and Russia, the American side plans to discuss the steps that Moscow is ready to take to resolve the conflict. This was stated by Secretary of State Rubio. At the same time, the White House announced Trump's intention to hold meetings with Putin and Zelensky soon. Russia continues to insist that its goals have not been achieved, and territorial issues will not be discussed in future negotiations.

The European Union is launching a preemptive strike against the United States. Brussels intends to expand the list of goods subject to European duties. However, new measures will be introduced only if Trump decides to impose duties on European steel and aluminum.

Russian banks express confidence in the reduction of the Central Bank's key interest rate. At the end of February, rates on ruble deposits reached multi-month lows, averaging in the range of 20.2-21.2%, depending on the deposit period. This indicates the reaction of credit institutions to the softening of the Central Bank's rhetoric and the possibility of an early easing of monetary policy in the country.

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Gold: Is the $3,000 Level Getting Closer?

The yellow metal continues its bullish trend set earlier this month. Despite some volatility in the gold market, gold remains on track for new highs. However, reaching these peaks still appears uncertain, as the precious metals market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, which continue to create turbulence.

Despite rising risks, analysts and market participants remain confident that gold could soon reach $3,000 per ounce, potentially by early March.

Currently, the gold market is experiencing an unprecedented rally, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains, consistently closing in positive territory and setting new records. Last week, gold posted its longest weekly winning streak since the mid-2000s when it first crossed the $2,000 per ounce threshold.

By the end of last week, spot gold was priced at $2,935.80 per ounce, reflecting a 2% increase. On Wednesday, February 26, gold extended its rally before experiencing a slight pullback, trading around $2,911 per ounce.

At present, XAU/USD has recovered some lost ground after hitting its weekly low. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over U.S. tariff plans under President Donald Trump continue to support gold as it remains a traditional safe-haven asset for investors.

According to analysts, the Biden administration's tariff policies have sparked concerns over inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider keeping interest rates elevated for longer. This scenario could limit gold's upside potential, as higher interest rates reduce the metal's appeal.

Nevertheless, gold maintains a strong bullish outlook, despite the possibility of short-term consolidation. Over the near term, gold prices may remain range-bound, but the bullish forecast remains intact, particularly as gold continues to trade above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The historical high of $2,957 remains out of reach for now. A break above this level would trigger a move toward $2,980, marking the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. This would represent a crucial step toward the psychological $3,000 per ounce milestone.

Alternatively, in a bearish scenario, the February 25 low of $2,888 serves as the initial support level for gold. A sustained decline could expose the metal to further downside risk, potentially dropping toward $2,795, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. However, the key support level remains at $2,718 per ounce.

Many analysts believe that gold reaching $3,000 per ounce is inevitable. Given the strong fundamental backdrop, gold continues to receive substantial support from multiple factors. As long as these tailwinds persist, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact.

"Gold's ability to adapt to evolving market narratives continues to drive its upward momentum," experts note. "Key fundamentals such as inflation fears, weakening global trade, and central banks shifting away from traditional currencies in favor of gold are strengthening its position."

Market analysts remain confident that gold has the potential for further gains, with geopolitical risks playing a significant role in driving demand for safe-haven assets.

According to currency strategist James Stanley, gold is unlikely to face major resistance as it approaches $3,000 per ounce. He views this level as a key psychological threshold, noting that breaking through it will require time and sustained momentum.

Further upside for gold—toward $3,000 and beyond—will largely depend on U.S. fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary stance. "Gold continues to rise despite the Fed's pause on rate hikes. Policymakers recognize that further rate increases are unwarranted at this stage," Stanley added.

A major risk factor for gold moving forward will be inflation data. "The primary threat to gold is a potential shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy. If inflation slows faster than anticipated, or if central banks take a more hawkish stance, gold could face downward pressure," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar or rising bond yields could slow down gold's bullish momentum in the near term. However, unless these factors shift significantly, gold remains poised for further gains, with $3,000 per ounce within reach.

[KostiaForexMart]

Gold is preparing for its biggest weekly drop since November

On Friday, gold prices showed a decline, preparing for the largest weekly drop since November, due to the strengthening of the dollar. Investors are eagerly awaiting important data on inflation in the United States, which may provide clues about the future policy of the Federal Reserve System.

The spot price of gold dropped to $2,851 per ounce, which means a 2.5% drop in a week after eight weeks of growth. Gold futures fell 0.8% to reach $2,863. 

Despite the fact that gold is traditionally considered a safe asset, uncertainty in trade relations may continue the process of profit-taking against the background of a stronger dollar, economists say.

On Thursday, Donald Trump announced that his proposed tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. This decision is due to the continued flow of dangerous drugs from these countries to the United States.

Investors are also focused on personal consumer spending (PCE) data, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and will be released later on Friday.

The spot price of silver fell 0.2% to $31.19 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $948.05, and palladium fell 0.2% to $916.46. All three metals continue to show declines this month.

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The main events by the morning: March 3

The bitcoin exchange rate went up sharply after Trump's words about the creation of the US crypto reserve. The American president said that the new reserve will include bitcoin, ethereum, XRP, solana and cardano. All of these cryptocurrencies have also shown growth. The current quote of the BTC/USD pair is $91,442, and the local maximum was marked at $95,151.

China is ready for a trade war with the United States: the country plans to impose tariffs on imports of agricultural and food products from the states. This step will be a response to Trump's harsh tariff policy. At the same time, Europe, which will also be subject to harsh tariffs, will lose 1.5% of GDP. And this is without taking into account possible EU retaliatory measures, which can only make the situation worse. 

The Moscow Exchange successfully conducted its first weekend of trading, which took place on March 1 and 2, with a total trading volume of 10.1 billion rubles. 23 professional participants participated in these auctions, 291 thousand transactions were concluded. The shares of such companies as Gazprom, T-Technologies, Sber, VTB and Novatek were the most popular.

Macron shared the details of the European plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The French president expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a possible truce that could be reached between the United States and Russia. In this regard, France, together with the UK, is developing its own strategy. The first step in this regard will be a cease-fire in the air and at sea, as well as the introduction of a moratorium on attacks on energy facilities. In the future, it is planned to send peacekeepers to the territory of Ukraine.

The Hungarian Prime Minister called the decision of European countries to continue the conflict in Ukraine erroneous. Orban believes that Kiev is being pushed to continue fighting, which, in his opinion, is a bad and dangerous course.

[KostiaForexMart]

Oil prices have collapsed below $71 per barrel, updating the lows of December 2024

The price of Brent crude oil fell to $70.41 per barrel, while April futures for WTI dropped to $67.45. 

The decline in quotations is due to the trade wars against Mexico and Canada initiated by US President Donald Trump, as well as the tightening of duties on goods from China.

On March 3, the White House announced the imposition of import tariffs of 25% on all goods from Mexico and Canada, with the exception of Canadian energy, for which duties amount to 10%. Washington also doubled duties on goods from China, increasing them to 20%. Trump justified these measures by the need to combat the spread of drugs in the United States.

Other factors contributing to the decline in oil prices included OPEC+'s announcement of its intention to maintain plans to increase oil production from April 1, as well as concerns about the possible lifting of sanctions against Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.
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US Market News Digest for March 5

US market faces volatility amid trade wars and economic concerns
On Tuesday, US stock indices plunged, as if traders suddenly remembered the law of gravity. The Dow Jones lost 1.6%, the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.4%. This could be attributed to the trade war, now reigniting with new force: 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect, and China was hit with additional tariffs of 10-20%. Naturally, retaliatory measures followed, and markets found themselves in a state of mild panic.

The panic peaked in the middle of the day as the S&P 500 approached the critical 200-day moving average (5,725). But then, the index was supported by Nvidia (+1.7%) and Amazon (+0.9%), which temporarily pushed the Nasdaq into the green. However, the relief was short-lived. The rally quickly ran into a wave of selling, and 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. The financial sector took the hardest hit, dropping 3.5%—it seems that investors decided it was better to stay away from banking assets in the face of uncertainty. Follow the link for details.

US stock market returns to pre-election levels amid new tariffs, sparking investor concerns

Since the presidential election, the market capitalization of the index had increased by more than $3.4 trillion, but the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada forced investors to cash out those profits. As a result, the stock market is back to where it was on the day of Trump's victory. Investors are now anticipating when the White House will throw the market a lifeline. Some believe it will happen when the S&P 500 returns to pre-election November levels, while others expect a 10% drop. While the president remains silent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has already hinted at a possible deal with Canada and Mexico.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassures that the stock market is simply going through short-term pain, leading to America's Golden Age. However, this belief is becoming increasingly doubtful. A series of weak macroeconomic reports has undermined investor confidence: the Atlanta Fed's forecast already signals a possible contraction in US GDP in the first quarter. This has contributed to a general atmosphere of market anxiety. Adding to this are trade retaliations from other countries and Elon Musk's decision to downsize the federal workforce. Against this background, it is becoming clear that the scenario from Trump's first term, when the US economy entered a downturn, could repeat itself. Follow the link for details.

US index futures under pressure amid trade war and economic uncertainty

After yesterday's drop, the markets attempted to rally, but, unfortunately, the bullish run was as short-lived as investors' optimism. Today, Asian trading brought only a modest recovery: the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.2%. The brief glimmer of hope yesterday came from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who hinted that the Trump administration might consider rolling back some tariffs. However, the optimism did not last long. Just a few hours later, the euphoria faded, and the market returned to its usual downward trajectory.

Meanwhile, China added fuel to the fire by announcing that economic growth would remain at 5% through 2025, despite deflation, a crisis in the property market, and an escalating trade war with the United States. To counter this, Beijing is preparing a record budget deficit for the next 30 years, which has understandably caused some concern in the markets. The yuan weakened slightly in response to the news, but the Hong Kong stock markets unexpectedly gained on hopes of further stimulus from Chinese authorities. Meanwhile, the German government announced that it would unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure investments, triggering a temporary rally in riskier assets. Follow the link for details.
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[KostiaForexMart]

The main events by the morning: March 6

The US administration has officially announced the temporary suspension of the allocation of funds to Ukraine. As explained by White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt, this decision is related to the need to review approaches to financial support. As for the information about the UK's ban on the transfer of intelligence to Kiev, neither the Pentagon nor the presidential administration has yet commented on these reports.

The United States is discussing an initiative to disband the Ministry of Education. According to American media reports, Trump is preparing an order to liquidate the agency. The head of the structure is instructed to provide organizational measures for the implementation of this plan. The exact motives for the decision remain unclear – official statements refer only to a large-scale reform of the state apparatus.

Germany has ruled out the possibility of resuming the work of Nord Stream 2. The German government stressed that Russian gas supplies along this route are not planned, as well as the restoration of the pipeline infrastructure. One of the key reasons is the lack of certification – the last surviving thread has not passed the necessary checks before commissioning.

Oil prices continue to collapse: Brent dropped below $69 per barrel. The last time such a price was in early September last year. During the day, black gold lost more than 3%, and from the February highs — more than 10%. Among the main reasons: the increasing possibility of peace between Russia and Ukraine and the growth of oil reserves in the United States.

There is a growing interest among American investors in Russian-related assets. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase provide clients with the opportunity to trade derivatives on Russian assets. Both banks appealed to investors by offering contracts for derivative financial instruments pegged to the ruble — such assets are not prohibited by sanctions. This year, the ruble has jumped by about 20%, more than any other foreign currency in the world.
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US Market News Digest for March 7

US stock market correction: time to review strategies
Major US stock indices, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, showed a decline, reaching their one-week lows. The primary pressure factors are market uncertainty related to changes in tariff policy under the Trump administration, as well as weakening investor confidence in the economic outlook. At the same time, futures on European indices and stocks in Asia are also declining, indicating a general downturn in sentiment across global markets.

For traders, however, such moves present opportunities. The correction could be a good time to enter the market at lower prices, particularly in the tech sector, which has traditionally been a long-term growth driver. The current levels of the S&P 500 could be a good support zone for a subsequent recovery. Follow the link for details.

Tesla and Google stocks under pressure, yet recovery looms
US stock market indices remained under pressure: the S&P 500 lost 1.8%, Tesla shares plummeted by 32%, and Google dropped by 15%. The sharp decline was caused by uncertainty in US trade policy and investor concerns about macroeconomic prospects. However, despite the current drop, the S&P 500 index is still holding above a key technical level, suggesting the possibility of a quick recovery.

For investors and traders, such moves create excellent opportunities: stocks of tech giants can now be bought at more attractive prices. Especially considering that companies like Nvidia and Tesla remain at the forefront of technological advancement and their shares are poised for long-term growth. Our low commissions and competitive spreads make trading even more profitable. Follow the link for details.

Political risks and economic data: shaping market outlook
US President Donald Trump prefers not to highlight the stock market's weakness, blaming globalists and China for the sell-off. Meanwhile, the US stock market is under significant pressure from negative trade data and concerns about a potential recession in the United States. Investors are increasingly focusing on macroeconomic indicators and statements from regulators. Follow the link for details.

Nevertheless, periods of uncertainty often create excellent opportunities for targeted market entry. It is important to monitor key levels and take advantage of favorable trading conditions to profit from price changes.

We offer the best conditions for trading US stocks – minimal commissions, competitive spreads, and access to top companies such as Tesla, Google, and Nvidia. Open positions with advantages!

[KostiaForexMart]

US Market News Digest for March 10

US futures fall, investors shift to safe-haven assets
US stock futures fell as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid growing concerns over a slowing US economy and trade risks. The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.6%, reaching 147.245 per dollar, while the Swiss franc rose 0.4% to 0.8773 per dollar. These moves indicate heightened demand for reliable assets in times of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News, US President Donald Trump refrained from making direct predictions about the impact of tariffs imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico. This has added uncertainty to markets, where investors are seeking new insights. High volatility creates both risks and opportunities for trading currency pairs and safe-haven assets.

S&P 500 up 0.6% despite weak jobs data

Despite the overall decline in the stock market last week, the S&P 500 added 0.6%. The gain was supported by buying on dips and positive momentum in semiconductor stocks. This occurred amidst weak US jobs data, with the number of new jobs falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since late 2021.

The market is closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He noted improvements in productivity and stated that the Fed is in no rush to change interest rates, leaving room for short-term speculative strategies and medium-term investments. In such conditions, it is crucial to have access to a wide selection of US stocks and favorable trading conditions such as narrow spreads and low commissions, allowing traders to react quickly to market changes and identify optimal entry points. Follow the link for details.

Investors remain cautious amid fears of economic downturn and high stock prices

Markets remain uncertain, with high stock prices leading to caution on the one hand, and a desire to capitalize on short-term dips on the other. A recent jobs report came in better than expected, with non-farm payrolls rising by 151,000, which supported the S&P 500 index. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted that weak data could push the index down by 2.5%, but this did not materialize. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called the report "solid," which eased investor concerns somewhat.

The current situation leaves room for short-term trading on market fluctuations. Long-term investors should be aware of the risks associated with an economic slowdown and the impact of US trade policy. 

Dollar under pressure, gold and bonds in focus

US stock index futures fell on concerns over economic slowdown. The market anticipates that the Fed may reconsider its interest rate policy amidst rising economic risks. The dollar weakened, and Treasury yields dropped as investors flocked to safer assets. Gold prices increased, while oil dropped to its lowest level since September, driven by weak economic data from China.

In the face of heightened uncertainty, investors are searching for opportunities in the stock market, with a wide selection of US stocks opening new prospects. It is important to track sector-specific dynamics and adjust strategies based on macroeconomic factors. In periods of high volatility, access to liquidity and favorable trading conditions allow for effective risk management and the identification of optimal entry points. 
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US Market News Digest for March 11

US stock indices, including S&P 500 and Nasdaq, lose more than 5%
After a sharp sell-off on Wall Street that sent the Nasdaq 100 into its deepest plunge since 2022, markets are beginning to recover. Futures on the S&P 500 rose by 0.3% after an early 1% dip, and US Treasury yields started to climb. However, investors remain on edge as tariff wars, government spending cuts, and geopolitical tensions threaten US economic growth. European stock indices and the Nasdaq 100 also bounced back slightly, but nerves remain as many fear this is just a short-term breather.

Asian markets continued their decline, pushing Hong Kong and China stock indices to five-week lows. In China, however, investors are ramping up investments, with local players buying stocks in anticipation of government stimulus measures. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sparked a rally in the tech sector, fueling risk appetite among local investors. Against this backdrop, Citigroup downgraded US equities to "neutral," while China was upgraded to "overweight." Meanwhile, in Europe, HSBC upgraded European stocks (excluding the UK). 

Trump to meet with major company leaders to calm markets amid uncertainty over tariffs and economic outlook

As the US stock market reels from sell-offs and recession fears, Donald Trump is preparing for an emergency meeting with corporate executives. Amid trade wars, tariffs, and growing pessimism, the White House is doing its best to show that the economy is not collapsing but is merely undergoing a "minor correction," as Trump himself believes. The meeting is expected to demonstrate the administration's "rock-solid confidence" in stability and reassure investors that everything is under control (although whether this will work remains uncertain). However, despite upbeat statements, markets continue to tremble under the weight of uncertainty as the trade war with China threatens global economic growth.

The meeting with the Washington-based Business Roundtable will test the resilience of Trump's economic strategy. Attendees include Chuck Robbins (Cisco Systems), Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase), Jane Fraser (Citigroup), and other Wall Street financial magnates. Until recently, Trump's victory inspired optimism among bankers, but now, with tariffs hitting businesses and the economy slowing, even the most loyal executives are beginning to feel nervous. The banking sector is in turbulent waters. Will business leaders be able to restore market stability, or will this meeting be another panicked attempt to prevent the market from spiraling further? 

US stock market loses $4 trillion in capitalization despite data showing resilient economy and low unemployment

US stock indices went through their worst day in recent memory, losing $4 trillion in capitalization. The Nasdaq plummeted 4%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Dow Jones index fell 2.1%. Moreover, the S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023. What caused the crash? Fears of a recession, slowing economic growth, and, of course, Donald Trump's comments suggesting that the United States is going through a "transitional period." In market terms, this means: get ready for even more chaos.

Large companies are not providing much relief either—Tesla (TSLA) lost 15% on weak sales in China and a lowered UBS price target of $225, while Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 5.1%, dragging down the entire tech sector. Microsoft (MSFT) lost 3.3%, and Apple (AAPL) fell 4.9%, confirming that investors are fleeing the mega-cap sector. Among the best performers were Redfin (RDFN), which soared 67.9% thanks to an acquisition by Rocket Companies (RKT), and Expand Energy (EXE), which gained 3.2% after being added to the S&P 500 index. US Treasury bonds became a safe-haven asset, with 10-year yields falling to 4.21% and 2-year yields sliding to 3.90%, marking the lowest since October. 

Investors concerned about US administration's lack of clarity on potential recession

Donald Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession and advised against focusing on the stock market. Investors took this as a clear signal to flee, leading to the biggest sell-off in the NASDAQ 100 since 2022. The Magnificent Seven stocks plummeted by 20% from their December highs, and the VIX fear index soared above 30 for the first time since August. According to Nomura Securities, it is a bad sign if volatility continues to rise gradually rather than sharply—suggesting the market is bracing for a prolonged and painful downturn. Meanwhile, JP Morgan scrapped its S&P 500 forecast of 6,500, hinting that predicting anything is futile amid this uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, Citigroup and HSBC recommend reducing exposure to US equities and seeking opportunities abroad, where countries are focusing on fiscal stimulus rather than trade wars. China and Europe look much more attractive than the US, which still cannot decide whether it is facing a recession or a "transitional period." Meanwhile, recession forecasts in the US are soaring: Goldman Sachs raised the probability of an economic downturn to 20%, Yardeni Research to 35%, JP Morgan to 40%, and Morgan Stanley revised its GDP forecast to 1.5% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026. It seems that the "transitional period" is going to be prolonged, so, investors, bear this in mind. 

Tech giants Nvidia and Tesla under pressure, their weak performance reflects current market conditions

Investors are holding their breath: if inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed will remain hawkish and stocks will stay under pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market is in panic mode, with the Nasdaq falling 4% and the S&P 500 down 2.7%. Tesla (-15.4%), Nvidia (-5.1%), and Apple (-4.9%) continue to lose ground, with analysts revising their forecasts. Particular attention is now on Nvidia, which became a symbol of the AI boom but has now dropped 20% since the start of the year. Analysts at Melius Research lowered Nvidia's target price to $170 from $195, citing falling demand for chips and potential regulatory risks. The company's stock has become more affordable. Its P/E ratio has dropped from 81 to 38, but the big question remains: is this the bottom, or is another round of declines ahead?

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 broke below the 5,700 support level, paving the way for another drop to the 5,500 area. The RSI and MACD indicators are signaling oversold conditions, but fundamental factors are still weighing on the market. The key question remains: how much of an impact will inflation have? The upcoming data releases will determine the next move. Investors are pondering whether now is the time to enter the market or wait for it to stabilize. If you are unsure of your strategy, use expert advice from professionals to not just weather the turbulence but to make the most of it. 
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XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its sideways movement, remaining in a consolidation phase as traders await U.S. consumer inflation data, set to be released later today during the North American session. This report could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future policy and, consequently, on dollar demand. If inflation exceeds expectations, it could provide a fresh bullish impulse for XAU/USD.

The U.S. dollar index has temporarily stabilized ahead of the key economic release, while broader sentiment in global equity markets has also influenced gold's price action. A positive shift in stock markets is pressuring gold, yet ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impact on the global economy continue to support its safe-haven appeal. Additionally, expectations of Fed rate cuts are helping keep gold near elevated levels.

Technical Outlook:
For bulls, a breakout above $2928–2930 is needed to confirm further upside. If this occurs, gold could retest its all-time high around $2956, reached in February. A sustained move above this level would trigger further buying momentum, especially as positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest the continuation of the uptrend.

On the other hand, a decline below the psychological level of $2900 could lead to initial support around $2880 or last week's low. A break below $2855 could trigger a deeper sell-off toward the $2834–2832 area, with the worst-case scenario being a drop toward the key $2800 level.
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The main events by the morning: March 17

The European Union does not impose sanctions against Russian LNG, waiting for an agreement with the United States on the supply of American gas. This slows down further energy sanctions and plans to phase out Russian fuel. The EU also will not publish a roadmap for reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. If negotiations with the United States fail, it will complicate the situation for Brussels. The United States holds 46% of the LNG market in Europe, while Russia holds 16%.

Trump plans to hold talks with Putin on Tuesday, noting significant progress in the work carried out over the weekend to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The US president believes that there is a «very good chance» to end the conflict. 

The European Union has become the main obstacle to achieving peace in Ukraine. This was stated by the Permanent mission of Russia to the OSCE. The fact is that against the background of establishing contacts between the United States and Russia, EU countries, on the contrary, are looking for opportunities for militarization. 

Russia and the United States are discussing access to the Black Sea in the context of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This was stated by Trump's special representative Witkoff. In particular, we are talking about access to the ports of the Black Sea and ownership of the Zaporizhia NPP.

China will reconsider its ambitions in the Arctic, including plans to become a «great polar power» by 2030, due to possible cooperation between Russia and the United States. The concept of the «Polar Silk Road», presented in 2018, caused a negative reaction from the Arctic countries. As a result, China has focused on «scientific diplomacy» and lowered its previous ambitions. Negotiations are also underway between Russia and the United States on the joint development of natural resources in the region.
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EUR/USD Pauses as S&P 500 Forecasts Worsen – How to Find Balance?

The global market is currently struggling to find balance in key currency pairs and stock instruments. This is particularly challenging given the recent decline of the euro and the weakness of the dollar. Adding to the pressure are relatively pessimistic forecasts for major global indices.

On Tuesday, March 18, the EUR/USD pair traded with slight losses around 1.0915. The euro remains under pressure due to a new round of trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on European goods. However, experts believe the dollar's weakening—driven by concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy and hopes for a fiscal deal in Germany—could limit the downside for EUR/USD.

Analysts suggest that further declines in EUR/USD may be prevented by actions taken by Germany's Green Party, which is currently working on a debt restructuring deal. Friedrich Merz, a candidate for German chancellor, recently approved the creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund and agreed to significant changes in borrowing rules, particularly regarding the so-called "debt brake." These measures are expected to support the euro soon and help it withstand pressure from the dollar.

Adding fuel to the fire, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales reports have heightened concerns about slowing consumer spending. This has put pressure on the dollar and supported EUR/USD. According to recent data, U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in February, falling short of the expected 0.7% increase. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by 3.1%, down from the previously reported 3.9% (revised from 4.2%).

The situation has become even more complicated due to widespread downgrades in forecasts for U.S. stocks. Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets have joined other experts in lowering their outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2025, citing worsening economic prospects, a potential slowdown in economic growth, and increased uncertainty from trade wars.

Against this backdrop, RBC Capital Markets has revised its S&P 500 forecast for next year, now expecting the index to reach 6,200 points—a 4% reduction from the previous forecast of 6,600 points. Additionally, the firm has cut its earnings-per-share forecast by 2.5%, citing deteriorating economic conditions.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 10% from its all-time high reached in February 2025, which experts believe signals the start of a market correction. RBC Capital Markets strategists have warned that slowing economic growth could pose a serious obstacle for the stock market. Consumer, small business, and corporate sentiment have turned increasingly negative, while support from President Donald Trump has diminished. Moreover, RBC strategists have lowered their year-end forecast for the S&P 500, expecting it to drop from 5,775 points to 5,550 points.

The performance of U.S. stocks contrasts with European markets, though negative trends are present there as well. The Euro Stoxx 50 index has risen by nearly 10%, driven by hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lower interest rates, and signs that the European economy has reached its bottom.

Across the Atlantic, the situation remains uncertain. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and other analysts have lowered the annual earnings growth forecast from 11% to 9%. He now expects the S&P 500 to finish the year at 6,200 points, down from the previous forecast of 6,500 points.

Deutsche Bank AG shares a similar view. The bank's analysts predict further declines in the U.S. stock market as optimistic sentiment deteriorates due to trade policy uncertainty. However, Deutsche Bank has maintained its long-term forecast for the S&P 500 at 7,000 points by the end of 2025.

Other currency strategists are also concerned about growing uncertainty in global markets. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlight potential risks associated with political developments. However, amid the wave of pessimistic forecasts, there is a glimmer of optimism. Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to drop to 5,500 points only in the first half of 2025 before recovering. He believes this could lay the groundwork for a market rebound later in the year.
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The Turkish lira collapsed to a record low

The Turkish lira plunged to a historic low, and stocks on the stock exchange fell so much that trading was temporarily suspended. The yield on 10-year government securities jumped to 29.94%, which was the highest in a year, amid a massive asset sale following the arrest of President Erdogan's main political opponent. This event increased the political instability in the market.

The Borsa Istanbul 100 index fell by 6.9% at the opening, which caused an automatic trading halt. After the resumption of the session, the shares continued to decline, declining by another 4.6%. The USD/TRY pair broke the 41.10 mark, losing more than 12% of the value of the lira. By noon, the exchange rate had stabilized slightly below the 40 level, showing an increase of almost 7%.

The escalation of tension is linked to the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival of Erdogan, whose popularity has increased since winning the mayoral election. The authorities had previously revoked his education diploma, which could prevent him from participating in the presidential race. Imamoglu planned to become the official candidate of the opposition Republican People's Party in the presidential elections in the near future.
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US Market News Digest for March 20

S&P 500: uptrend or just corrective move?
Although the S&P 500 shows optimism, its growth since March 14 has been viewed as more of a correction. A move toward the target range of 5,881–5,910 becomes more likely if the price consolidates above 5,769. This could reinforce the short-term uptrend, attracting new buyers.

Traders should consider the current technical setup, evaluating support and resistance levels. Holding above key levels may serve as a buy signal, but high volatility requires caution when making decisions.

Fed's decision to hold interest rates supports the US stock market
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, providing a positive catalyst for the stock market. Major stock indices, including the S&P 500, closed higher after the central bank acknowledged economic uncertainty but saw no immediate need to change monetary policy.

The market interpreted this decision as a sign of stability, boosting demand for stocks. With no new monetary restrictions, investors may continue seeking opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and financial sectors.

Market optimism: more Fed's rate cuts lie ahead?

US stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, continue their rise, fueled by expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Fed officials' comments have reinforced positive sentiment, despite short-term turbulence in the Chinese market.

Investors may consider portfolio diversification, including assets sensitive to rate cuts. Market momentum will depend on further signals from the Fed and upcoming macroeconomic data.

Fed eases recession fears, but risks do not disappear

The FOMC meeting in March reassured investors, reducing fears of a potential recession. Despite a slight upward revision of inflation forecasts, the S&P 500 remains an attractive investment option. However, geopolitical risks could still trigger sell-offs.

For traders, flexibility is key—while the market shows resilience, short-term corrections remain possible. The best approach is to use volatility to identify entry points, factoring in fundamental data and market news.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, following the release of data showing a February slowdown in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Japanese yen continues to trade with a negative tone, creating uncertainty in the market.

The data shows that Japan's national CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in February, down from 4% in the previous month. Although this slowdown was expected, it will likely influence Japan's economic policy. The nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 3.0% compared to a year earlier, slightly above the expected 2.9%, but still below the previous 3.2% reading.

Interestingly, preliminary results from the spring labor negotiations (Shunto) indicate that Japanese companies have largely agreed to substantial wage increases for a third consecutive year. This could boost consumer spending and maintain inflationary pressure, thereby providing room for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the Shunto results align with expectations, and that the central bank will continue its policy until it is clearly time to act. Achieving the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility, and the bank is prepared to adjust policy depending on economic and price conditions.

Investors are confident that strong wage growth in Japan could stimulate consumer spending and support inflation, giving the BoJ scope for rate hikes in 2025.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has announced plans to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year, due in part to a downward revision in growth forecasts amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs could restrain economic growth, posing additional challenges for the U.S. economy.

Consequently, rising demand for the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's rate cut projections, is helping USD/JPY maintain intraday gains above the key 149.00 level.

However, the divergence between expected Fed easing and BoJ tightening creates a standoff in the pair, limiting the dollar's upside and providing support to the lower-yielding yen. This calls for caution when opening long positions on further USD/JPY growth.

Technical Outlook
A strong move above the 149.25–149.30 zone would allow USD/JPY to retest the psychological level of 150.00. A break above 150.15 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward the interim level at 150.60, followed by 151.00, and ultimately the monthly high near 151.30.

On the other hand, the Asian session low near 148.60 now serves as immediate support. A drop below this level would accelerate the decline toward the weekly low of 148.20–148.15, reached on Thursday.

Further key support levels are located at 148.00 and 147.70—a break below these would open the way to 147.35 and 147.00, and eventually to the 146.55–146.50 area, which marks the lowest level since early October. This view is reinforced by oscillators on the daily chart, which remain in negative territory.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support.

News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today.

At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region.

The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions.

Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region.

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954.

On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.
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US Market News Digest for March 25

S&P 500 surges to critical level of 5,769
Yesterday, the S&P 500 unexpectedly put on a show, jumping 1.76% to reach 5,769, a level last seen on January 13th. As if following a well-rehearsed script, the Marlin oscillator, like a disciplined performer, touched the boundary of bullish territory. This is top-tier synchronization: critical levels are being tested in unison, forming this very bifurcation point — where the price will either reverse course and plunge towards 5,516, or continue its bold ascent into the 5,881-5,910 range.

A close above 5,769 today would strengthen the case for further gains. However, if this session ends with a bearish black candlestick, bears are likely to start dragging the price lower, targeting the support level of 5,670. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward channel, though still in positive territory, indicating a potential upside breakout. The Kruzenshtern line is also turning up, pointing to a possible short-term uptrend.

US stocks rally on hopes for softer tariff stance from Trump

Wall Street finally decided to reward investors, rallying strongly on a wave of optimism. What was the reason? The Trump administration seemed to have put on a mask of reason — hinting at a more cautious, measured approach to tariffs, potentially delaying or revising the planned April 2 hikes. As a result, the S&P 500 index jumped 1.8% to a two-week high and even surpassed its 200-day moving average at 5,752. The Dow Jones gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3%. Tech stocks led the way, especially those that had taken a beating earlier in the year.

The stock market was also supported by strong economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI spiked to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, more than offsetting a drop in the Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 from 52.7. Ten out of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with eight gaining more than 1.0%. Even the bond market joined the rally — the 10-year Treasury yield soared 8 basis points to 4.33%. 

Trump's talk of sectoral tariff exemptions lifts US stock market despite lingering investor caution

US stock indices finally gave investors something to smile about. At the close of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 climbed 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 added a confident 2.27%. The optimism was driven by Donald Trump's comments. This time, he opted to loosen his grip a bit, announcing that not all tariffs set for April 2 would be applied across the board. In fact, some countries may be granted sectoral exemptions. The statement immediately stirred economic circles and, unsurprisingly, provided a solid boost to US equities. Still, analysts appear more focused on reading the tea leaves than offering clear direction.

Meanwhile, Chinese investors clearly do not share the US optimism. China's stock market continued its dizzying slide, as if to prove that gravity is no joke. The gauge of Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong plummeted 3.8%, marking the steepest drop in three weeks. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. led the losers' list: Xiaomi tumbled 6.6%, while Alibaba shed more than 3% after its chairman cautiously hinted at a possible bubble in data center construction.

Trump's auto and goods tariff exemptions calm markets, boost Magnificent Seven stocks

The financial storm may be abating. As the S&P 500 climbed to a three-week high on the back of Trump's softer tone on trade tariffs, banks and investment firms swiftly pivoted to the bullish camp. JP Morgan and Evercore insist that the worst sell-off of 2025 is behind us, while Bank of America says that capital flows are reversing course, with money coming back to the United States. Trump has rolled out a new tariff maneuver: a 25% tariff on anyone buying oil from Venezuela. It is clear that this measure could also be applied to Russia if it continues to stall on decisions regarding Ukraine.

Bank of America argues that capital flight to Europe was triggered by a 14% sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla and other behemoths that had given up their gains suddenly looked attractive again. Their ratio to the broader market has fallen to its lowest level since late 2022. The White House has scrapped plans for new tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. Even if new tariffs do materialize, they will be selective. For now, the breeze of optimism is blowing back towards the United States.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen remains under pressure today due to weak domestic economic data. In February, Japan's leading inflation indicator in the services sector rose by 3.0% year-over-year, slightly below the 3.1% increase recorded in January. This figure remains an important measure of inflation in Japan's service sector. Coupled with the upbeat sentiment in equity markets, this undermines the yen's safe-haven appeal.

However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his intention to continue raising interest rates if economic and price developments align with forecasts outlined in the BoJ's quarterly outlook report. Combined with rising wages, this supports expectations of further monetary policy tightening. Substantial wage increases for the third consecutive year reinforce expectations of additional rate hikes by the central bank.

Meanwhile, some selling pressure on the U.S. dollar is helping the USD/JPY pair remain above the 150.00 level.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve last week hinted at two potential 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. While the Fed raised its inflation forecast, it lowered the growth outlook due to uncertainties stemming from President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies. Trump is expected to announce new tariffs taking effect on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the markets. Additionally, he imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela, stating that any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% duty when trading with the U.S.

Growing pessimism over the U.S. economy has led to declining consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell to 65.2 — its lowest level in 12 years — indicating a potential recession. This pressured the U.S. dollar and led to a pullback from its nearly three-week high.

Despite hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler about slowing progress in returning inflation to the 2% target, dollar bulls failed to gain the necessary support. Several upcoming speeches from Fed officials may influence the dollar's performance. For short-term momentum in USD/JPY, attention should also be given to the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, but the key focus will be on Friday's Core PCE Price Index, which will likely shape the pair's next major moves.

Technical Outlook

A breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is considered a key bullish signal.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart is beginning to show positive momentum, pointing to potential further upside. However, the recent failure near the 151.00 level and a dip back below the psychological 150.00 mark warrant caution. Traders should wait for a solid confirmation above these levels before initiating new long positions to continue the pair's recovery.

The next leg higher could lift spot prices beyond the monthly high near 151.30 and toward the round 152.00 level.

Support Levels

On the other hand, the 149.55 level — yesterday's low — now offers immediate support. A break below this level could open the path toward 149.00, followed by stronger support around 148.78, which aligns with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A breach of this zone may tilt the bias in favor of the bears and lead to further losses toward 148.00 and beyond.