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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 16, 2022

Economic calendar for May 16

Monday is traditionally accompanied by a blank macroeconomic calendar. Nevertheless, stable information and news flow will continue to play on the nerves of speculators, which allows new jumps in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 16

In this situation, the pullback was replaced by stagnation, where the values of 1.0350/1.0420 serve as variable boundaries of the amplitude. The optimal trading strategy is considered to be a breakdown of one or another stagnation border.

We concretize the above into trading signals:

Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.0450 with the prospect of a move to 1.0500.

Sell positions should be considered after keeping the price below the local low of 2016, at 1.0325.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 16

Despite the slowdown, the pullback stage is still relevant in the market. In order for the downward cycle to resume, the quote must first return to the pivot point of 1.2150. This price move will indicate an increase in the volume of short positions, which will lead to the breakdown of the variable support and the trend prolongation.

An alternative market development scenario considers the price transition from the pullback stage to a full-scale correction. This movement can be indicated by a long stay of the price above 1.2250 in the daily period.

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EURUSD bears lure opponents into a trap

Taking advantage of the hawkish rhetoric of the ECB and Hungary's stubborn resistance to the Russian oil embargo, the EURUSD bulls, as expected, went on the counterattack and inflated the quotes of the main currency pair above 1.05. For a long time, the positions of the euro looked hopeless, but any trend, no matter how strong it may be, needs correction. Why not now?

Such a rapid fall of the single European currency was clearly not part of the ECB's plans. In such a scenario, an increase in import prices further accelerates inflation and slows down economic growth. In this regard, the words of Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau look like a verbal intervention. The authoritative official said that the ECB is closely monitoring the situation on Forex, and the fall of the euro contradicts the goals of price stability.

The faster growth of eurozone GDP in the first quarter by 0.3%, rather than 0.2% QoQ, added fuel to the fire of the bulls' counterattack on EURUSD. The currency bloc's economy is recovering from the pandemic faster than previously expected. If it were not for the armed conflict in Ukraine, it could have outstripped its American counterpart, which would have led to the breakdown of the downward trend in the main currency pair.

Eurozone GDP dynamics

However, work on Forex does not tolerate the subjunctive mood. Due to the fact that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than the ECB; the US economy has recovered faster from COVID-19, and the eurozone is closer to the epicenter of hostilities in Eastern Europe, the EURUSD bears dominate the market and can afford to play cat and mouse with their main opponent.

Investors are looking forward to the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. Lagarde's alleged "hawkish" rhetoric is one of the drivers of the euro pullback. The derivatives market predicts that the deposit rate will rise by 90 bps in 2022, which is equivalent to 25 bps at three or four meetings of the Governing Council. Out of the 48 Reuters experts, 26 said that borrowing costs will rise by 50 bps by the end of the third quarter, another 18 see +25 bps, and two said +10 bps. More than 90% of respondents expect to see zero or positive rates by the end of the year. Note that at present it is -0.5%.

Hungary's resistance to the EU's plan to embargo Russian oil is also lending a helping hand to EURUSD bulls. 65% of oil imports to this country come from the Russian Federation. And in order to abandon it, it is necessary to redo the entire infrastructure, which Budapest estimates at €15–18 billion. No ban on oil supplies—no higher prices—no retaliatory sanctions from Moscow. This means that the risks of a recession in the eurozone are reduced. Good news for the euro.

Technically, the return of EURUSD to the boundaries of fair value indicates the seriousness of the intentions of the bulls. Closing the trading day above 1.053 will increase the risks of a correction in the direction of 1.06 and 1.066. In this regard, the longs formed at the break of resistance at 1.0435 are still holding and watching the closing price.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 18/05/2022

The correction that began on Monday ended quite quickly. It was supposed that at best, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's words would stop it, but in fact, it happened long before that. Namely, at the very opening of the US trading session. The fact is that US macroeconomic reports suddenly turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts. And instead of slowing down the main indicators, they accelerated each other.

The growth rate of retail sales increased from 7.3% to 8.2%, although they expected a decrease from 6.9% to 4.2%. That is, not only did the new data turn out to be significantly higher than the forecast, but also the previous ones were revised up. Unlike industrial production, whose previous results were revised from 5.5% to 5.4%. But its growth rate accelerated to 6.4%, instead of slowing down to 2.0%. And judging by these data, the American economy is doing just great. Especially when you consider that the data were published for April.

Retail Sales (United States):

But if macroeconomic statistics have completed the corrective movement, then Powell's words indicate the resumption of the trend for the strengthening of the dollar. Despite the recent slowdown in inflation, Powell did not say a word about the possibility of any revision of plans to raise interest rates. Powell once again stated that the central bank will raise the refinancing rate until inflation falls to target levels. That is, up to 2.0%. Given that it is now above 8.0%, then at least until the end of this year, during each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the refinancing rate will be raised by at least 0.25%. So by the end of the year, it is likely to be above 2.00%. But in general, there is nothing new in this, and Powell only confirmed the previously announced plans, regarding the implementation of which there were some doubts. Powell dispelled them.

But if Powell's words were not enough to immediately start the process of strengthening the dollar, then British inflation coped with this task perfectly, which rose from 7.0% to 9.0%. And this is the biggest value in more than forty years. But the Bank of England has recently assured everyone that in April, and the data were published for this month, inflation will peak, after which it will gradually decline. That's just according to the forecasts of the British central bank, it should have reached the level of 7.2%. But the reality turned out to be noticeably worse. And there is no doubt that such a high level of inflation will have an extremely negative impact on the economy of the United Kingdom. Yes, it already does. As a result, after a small local rebound, the market returned to the long-familiar trend of strengthening the US dollar.

The GBPUSD currency pair formed a correction by more than 300 points, eventually returning the quote to the level of 1.2500. The subsequent price slowdown indicates an overheating of long positions.

The RSI H4 technical instrument entered the overbought zone during the acceleration. This signal confirms the overheating of long positions in the short term.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move in the market. The Alligator D1 indicator still signals a downward trend in the medium term. The moving MA lines are directed down.

Expectations and prospects:

Price stagnation within the level of 1.2500 signals the process of accumulation of trading forces. It will end soon and lead to subsequent price spikes.

If we assume that the correction is coming to an end, then keeping the price below the 1.2420 mark will lead to a full-fledged rebound of the price from the 1.2500 level. This step, in turn, will restart short positions.

An alternative scenario sees the current slump as an opportunity for a realignment of trading forces that would remove the overbought status from the pound. In this case, keeping the price above 1.2520 in a four-hour period allows for the subsequent formation of a corrective move.

Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to the main trend.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 19, 2022

Economic calendar for May 19

Today, of interest, there are only claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, where they are predicted to decrease in their volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.343 million to 1.320 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits may be reduced from 203,000 to 200,000.

Time targeting

US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 19

In this situation, only a stable holding of the price below the level of 1.0500 can indicate a signal about the completion of the correction. Otherwise, the scenario of variable turbulence within the boundaries of 1.0500/1.0600 will still be relevant on the market.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 19

The subsequent increase in the volume of short positions is expected at the time of holding the price below the value of 1.2300 in a four-hour period. This move may lead to further weakening of the pound in the direction of the local bottom on May 13 at 1.2155.

An alternative scenario will be considered by traders if the price returns to the resistance level. So the correction will have a second chance for a prolongation.
 

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.75%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.75% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 0.58% and the NASDAQ Composite index shed 0.26%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer in the Dow Jones Index today, up 7.17 points or 1.52% to close at 478.55. Boeing Co rose 1.62 points (1.29%) to close at 127.14. Home Depot Inc rose 0.90% or 2.58 points to close at 287.76.

The losers were shares of Cisco Systems Inc, which lost 6.64 points or 13.73% to end the session at 41.72. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 2.88% or 5.02 points to close at 169.30 while Walmart Inc was down 2.74% or 3.36 points to close at 119. .07.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Synopsys Inc, which rose 10.25% to 300.52, MarketAxess Holdings Inc, which gained 7.10% to close at 267.94, and shares of General Holdings Inc, which rose 6.62% to end the session at 223.69.

The biggest losers were Under Armor Inc C, which shed 15.76% to close at 8.18.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were NeuroMetrix Inc, which rose 76.28% to hit 5.50, VivoPower International PLC, which gained 47.64% to close at 1.58, and shares of Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp, which rose 29.57% to end the session at 0.79.

The biggest losers were Bright Green Corp, which shed 67.35% to close at 15.70. Shares of Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc lost 39.00% and ended the session at 3.05. Quotes of Molecular Data Inc decreased in price by 27.50% to 0.10.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1645) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1538), while quotes of 108 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1679 fell, and 235 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.20% to 29.35.

Gold futures for June delivery added 1.29%, or 23.46, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI July futures rose 1.78%, or 1.90, to $108.94 a barrel. Brent futures for July delivery rose 1.94%, or 2.12, to $111.23 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 1.14% to 1.06, while USD/JPY shed 0.35% to hit 127.78.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.93% to 102.89.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 20, 2022

Economic calendar for May 20

UK retail sales dropped by 4.9% YoY in April replacing 1.3% growth in March. Analysts assumed a decline of 7.2%. The discrepancy in the forecasts delayed the rapid weakening of the pound sterling.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 20

In this situation, a price rebound from the border of 1.0600 is possible, which will lead to a reverse move towards the level of 1.0500. This movement can form a flat.

An elongated correction scenario will be considered by traders if the price holds above 1.0636 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 20

The subsequent increase in the volume of short positions is expected at the time of holding the price below the value of 1.2300 in a four-hour period. This move may lead to further weakening of the pound towards the May 13 local bottom at 1.2155.

An alternative scenario will be considered by traders if the price returns to the resistance level. So the correction will have a second chance for a prolongation.

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Aussie and Kiwi skyrocket. Commodity currencies rise and US dollar tumbles

Commodity currencies grow sharply at the beginning of the week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were supported by a surge in risk appetite.

In anticipation of the end of the lockdown in China's largest financial center, Shanghai, the demand for stocks rose.

Quarantine restrictions have been in effect in the city of 25 million people since the end of March. Most of them are expected to be lifted by June 1.

At the same time, optimism about global economic growth triggered a surge in high-risk commodity currencies. For example, the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to their highest levels in weeks.

The Aussie jumped by 0.7% this morning to 70.92 cents.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar soared 1.1% to its highest since May 5 at 64.62 cents.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars managed to recoup some of the losses suffered this quarter. Both currencies have had the worst performance among the Group of Ten since April.

The Aussie and Kiwi have been under pressure from the strong US dollar over the past few weeks. Amid aggressive rate hikes in the US, the greenback index rose to a new 20-year high of 105,010 this month.

However, at the beginning of the new working week, the US currency is trading at 2% below the record level amid the return of appetite for risky assets.On Monday morning, its rate fell by 0.1% from Friday's close to 102.790 points.

By the end of last week, the US dollar showed the first decrease in 7 weeks. The weakness of the greenback allowed the Aussie to make its first weekly rise since the end of March.

Since the beginning of the week, the Aussie has received a little boost from the center-left Labor Party's victory in Australia's federal election on Saturday.

The good news for the Australian currency is that this is the first change of government in almost 10 years. The bad news is that the new government is unlikely to change the pace of interest rate hikes in Australia.

A fresh comment from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent adds to the pessimism about monetary policy.

On Monday morning, the official hinted at a gradual reduction in the Australian Central Bank's balance sheet for this and the coming year:

– This year's asset reduction plan calls for only $4 billion in bond redemptions, and we expect the figure to rise to $13 billion in 2023.

This abundance of funding indicates that the target money rates will remain low for a few years.

As for the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the base interest rate may rise as early as this week.

Markets are now expecting the RBNZ to raise the rate on Wednesday by 50 bps to 2%. The regulator's hawkish scenario adds momentum to the NZD/USD pair, which is now at a 3-week peak.

Thanks to the return of risk sentiment to the stock markets the AUD/USD pair is also showing great movements. It is firmly above the 21-day moving average this morning.

Bulls need to close above this level to continue the uptrend in the AUD/USD pair because this level coincides with the resistance line of the downtrend.

If the Aussie dollar continues to be in demand in the near future, it might lead it to test the high of 0.7135 from May 6.

If the AUD/USD does not manage to keep above the 21-day moving average by the end of the day, bears will return to the market and pull the Aussie back to Friday's low of 0.7002.

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 24, 2022

Economic calendar for May 24
Preliminary data on business activity indices for May in Europe, Britain, and the United States will be published today. A widespread decline in indicators is expected, which may lead to variable fluctuations in the market.

Time targeting

Business activity indices in the EU - 08:00 UTC

Business activity indices in Britain - 08:30 UTC

Business activity indices in the US - 13:45 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 24
In this situation, overheating of long positions can lead to a pullback, while the upward interest will still prevail in the market. The next round of growth is expected after the price holds above the 1.0700 mark.

An alternative scenario will be considered by traders in case the price returns below the 1.0600 mark in a four-hour period. In this case, a signal of completion of the corrective move may occur.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 24
The previously passed level of 1.2500 currently plays the role of a support in case of a pullback in the market. The subsequent increase in the volume of long positions is expected at the time of holding the price above 1.2600. In this case, buyers will have the possibility of further growth towards the level of 1.2700.

If the pullback drags on, and the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.2500, the first signal of the completion of the corrective move may appear.
 

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Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on May 26

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

GBP/USD reaching 1.2545 prompted a buy signal in the market, which led to a 10 pip increase as the MACD line was just starting to move above zero. However, the quote turned down immediately after and retested 1.2545, forming a sell signal. This time, it provoked a 25-pip decrease in the pair and reached 1.2518, where movement became limited as the MACD was already far from zero. In the afternoon, another sell signal appeared at 1.2545, resulting in another 20-pip decrease. Its fourth test then led to a buy signal, which prompted a 50-pip increase as the MACD was moving above zero.

GBP/USD reached new monthly highs after traders did not find anything new in the minutes of the Fed's May meeting. Contrary to what was expected, there were no hints that the central bank will raise rates again at the next meetings.

However, today, it is likely that the pound will turn down as there are no statistics scheduled to be released in the UK. In the afternoon, data on US jobless claims and second estimate of the 1st quarter GDP will support the dollar, while the report on pending home sales may strengthen the emerging trend in the pair provided that its value turns out better than expected.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2575 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2610 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today because there is no scheduled statistics to be released. However, note that when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2553, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2575 and 1.2610.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2553 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2516. Pressure is likely to return if there is no bullish activity in the market before and after the release of the US GDP report for the 1st quarter. However, note that when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2575, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2553 and 1.2516.

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Major altcoins suffer losses

On Thursday, bitcoin dived to $28,900 and eventually closed at $29,117. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC fell to $28,982.

Since Monday, bitcoin has tried to break out of the 7-week long downtrend, but remained near the $30,000 mark. The leading cryptocurrency lost about 60% since it surpassed $69,000 and reached an all-time high in November 2021.

Crypto market lossesOver the past 24 hours, BTC lost about 2%. Howevre, major altcoins suffered more severe losses. STEPN's native token nosedived by 37.9% after its developer halted its services in China due to a demand from local authorities. STEPN is a move-to-earn lifestyle app which uses GPS and allows users to earn rewards in crypto by running, walking, or jogging outside. The company will stop providing GPS services to users in mainland China from July 15.

Solana fell by 7.15% to $45. The altcoin lost more than 17% last week. Among other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum decreased by 6.16% to $1,847, BNB slumped by 5.03% to $311.86, Cardano declined by 4.59% to $0.487, and Dogecoin slid down by 4.83% to $0.0791. The best performing cryptocurrency was Chain, which jumped by 46.6% on Thursday.

According to CoinGecko, the market cap of the cryptocurrency market decreased by 3.22% to $1.22 trillion yesterday. The Bitcoin Dominance Index reached 45.74%.

Lengthy crypto downtren

Since the beginning of 2022, the digital assets market dropped sharply as investors shifted away from risky assets. BTC lost about 37% since January, while Ethereum dived by 48%. The market cap of the cryptomarket declined to $1.3 trillion from $3 trillion in November 2021.

The war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have pushed the crypto market downwards.

Another bearish factor for crypto is the growing dominance of the United States in the digital assets market, reflecting the currency war between the US and China, which began in 2014. The US crypto dominance was reinforced by China's crypto ban in 2021

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also pushing the crypto market downwards. According to crypto market analysts, the Fed's interest rate hike has contributed to the downtrend. Investors are concerned that rising inflation would force the regulator to increase interest rates even higher in the future.

Earlier, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank plans to act decisively to bring inflation back to the target level of 2%, despite short term recession risks.

In May, the Federal Reserve increased the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75-1%. The US regulator hiked the rate by 25 basis points at its March meeting. It was the first back-to-back rate rise by the Fed since 2006 and the first 50 basis points increase since 2000

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Despite bitcoin's woes, JP Morgan strategists estimated BTC's fair value at $38,000, which is 30% higher than its current price of about $29,000. Furthermore, JPMorgan classified digital assets and hedge funds as its "preferred" alternative asset classes.

The bank's strategists also stated that BTC and digital assets have great upside potential after its recent fall.
 

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CADCHF today as we see here, the price is in bearish trend, so it is better if you open sell position when the price breaks support area 0.7479 with potential target up to 50 pips below

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 30/05/2022

Although the single European currency demonstrated good activity on Friday, showing a movement of fifty points, first up, then down, in fact, it was a stagnation. Which, in general, is not surprising, given that macroeconomic data was not published. And there were no serious news reports that could somehow affect the market either. The beginning of the new trading week will be much less active. And it's not just a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. After all, it is a holiday in the United States to honor Memorial Day. And in the absence of American traders, activity in the market is coming to naught. Like it or not, American investors control most of the capital circulating in financial markets. So the stagnation will become more pronounced, and the magnitude of the movement will be noticeably smaller than on Friday.

The EURUSD currency pair, despite the scale of the correction, adheres to an upward move. During this time, the euro exchange rate has strengthened by more than 400 points, which is considered a strong price change.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates an upward interest among traders. RSI D1 settled above the 50 line, this is a signal of an elongated correction.

Alligator H4 is signaling an upward trend, MA moving lines are directed upwards. The Alligator D1 indicator has changed direction from a downward cycle to an upward one. The moving MA lines are directed upwards.

Expectations and prospects:

There is a resistance area of 1.0800/1.0850 on the way, which can hold back the bulls. For this reason, the tactic of working on the rebound is considered as the most optimal strategy. In the future, this may lead to the completion of the corrective move.

An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price stays above 1.1850 in the daily period.

Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. In the medium term, indicators changed to buy indicators due to a protracted correction.

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 31, 2022

Economic calendar for May 31

Today, traders are focused on the preliminary assessment of inflation in Europe. It is predicted that the consumer price index will continue to grow from 7.4% to 7.7%, which is a negative factor for the EU economy. Further inflation growth may stimulate the ECB to more aggressive tactics of tightening monetary policy. In simple words, the regulator may still move to an interest rate hike based on the growth of inflation. Thus, based on the logic of the ECB's further steps, this news may lead to an increase in the value of the euro in the medium term.

A short-term reaction to rising inflation could lead to a weakening of the euro.

Time targeting

EU Inflation - 09:00 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 31

The area of resistance 1.0800/1.0850 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to the completion of the corrective movement. If expectations are confirmed, the euro rate may return to the value of 1.0636.

An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price holds above 1.0850 in the daily period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 31

In this situation, special attention is paid to the stage of stagnation within the amplitude of 1.2600/1.2700. This fluctuation may indicate the process of accumulation of trade forces, which will eventually lead to a local acceleration. Based on the assumption, the best trading tactic is the method of breaking through one or another stagnation border with confirmation in a four-hour period.
 

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Oil holds steady in positive territory for six straight months and extends its rally into summer

On Wednesday, global oil prices are steadily increasing after a short decline a day earlier. The fall in oil prices on Tuesday was caused by speculations that some producers want to suspend Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production deal, as well as by new sanctions against Russia.

At the moment of writing, August Brent oil futures have gained 0.36% and are now hovering near $116.02 per barrel. A day earlier, Brent lost 1.7% and declined to $115.60 per barrel.

WTI oil futures for July rose by 0.44% to $115.17 per barrel on Wednesday. Yesterday, the futures contracts fell by 0.35% to $114.67 per barrel.

So, on Tuesday, oil depreciated by about 2% after a report that some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending Russia's participation in the deal over the conflict in Ukraine. The key factors in this case are the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and the partial embargo on Russian crude imports. This step will notably limit Russia's ability to ramp up oil production. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on June 2, 2022.

In 2021, Russia, one of the world's top three crude producers, made a deal with OPEC and 9 other non-OPEC members to gradually increase output every month. Yet, amid anti-Russian sanctions, analysts predict an 8% drop in oil production.

Oil quotes were steadily rising until the news about Russia's possible suspension appeared in the media. In the early trade on Tuesday, Brent futures for July jumped above $124 per barrel for the first time since March 9.

Experts suggest that if the cancellation of Russia's membership is confirmed, the price of oil may drop to $100.

Today, markets are focused on supply prospects amid a ban on Russian oil imports to the EU. On May 31, the EU members agreed on the sixth package of sanctions which includes a partial embargo on oil and petroleum products imported by sea.

The sanctions ban local companies from providing insurance to Russian oil tankers. This means that from now on, Russia is isolated from the largest export market.

Restrictions will deal a heavy blow to oil deliveries to Asia which may disrupt Russia's plan to refocus on exports to China and India.

This ban can seriously hit the economy of Russia as the majority of European companies will refuse to transport oil without insurance. The effectiveness of this restriction was previously tested on Iran and proved to be successful.

Many European countries involved in shipping have already expressed concern about the ban on insurance for Russian oil tankers. So, the EU decided to implement it gradually within the next six months.

The official statement about the new restrictive measures against Moscow is expected in the coming days.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 2, 2022

Economic calendar for June 2

Today is a holiday in the UK, but this will not cause a decrease in volatility in financial markets. The focus will be on the ADP report on employment in the United States, which is predicted to grow by 295,000 in May. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

Almost simultaneously with the report, ADP will publish weekly data on jobless claims in the US, where they predict a reduction in their volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.346 million to 1.308 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits may remain at the level of 210,000.

Time targeting

ADP report - 12:15 UTC

US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 2

In order to confirm the signal to sell the euro, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.0636 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, traders will have high chances of moving towards the values of 1.0570–1.0500.

Otherwise, the market may experience another stagnation with a local pullback relative to the pivot point.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 2

A stable holding of the price below the level of 1.2500 may lead to a subsequent decline towards the value of 1.2350. This move will indicate a gradual process of recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 3, 2022

Economic calendar for June 3

Retail sales data in the euro area is expected for publication today. Forecasts assumed growth in figures, which may provide local support for the euro before the American trading session.

The main macroeconomic event of the outgoing week is considered to be the report of the United States Department of Labor, which predicts by no means bad indicators. The unemployment rate could drop from 3.6% to 3.5%, and 325,000 new jobs could be created outside of agriculture. We have a strong US labor market, which could support the US dollar.

Time targeting

EU retail sales - 09:00 UTC

US Department of Labor Report - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 3

Based on the recent price change, we can assume that the market has a local signal that the euro is overbought in the short term. This can lead to a slowdown in the upward cycle followed by a rebound. The price area of 1.0770/1.0800 is considered as resistance on the way of buyers.

The scenario of the prolongation of the corrective move will be considered by traders if the price stays above 1.0850 for at least a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 3

In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios at once:

The first one comes from the preservation of rising interest in the market, where holding the price above 1.2600 can return the quote to the resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720.

The second scenario considers the possibility of completing a corrective move, where holding the price below 1.2530 will lead to another attempt to break through the support level of 1.2500. The largest increase in the volume of short positions will occur after the price holds below 1.2450, which will confirm the signal about the completion of the correction.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Most of the Asian indices gain 0.67–2.2%

Most of the Asian indices gained between 0.67 and 2.2%. Thus, the Chinese and Hong Kong indices showed the biggest increases. Shanghai Composite added 1.05%, Shenzhen Composite increased by 2.21%, and Hang Seng Index surged by 1.37%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.67% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.32%. South Korean stock exchanges are not working today. However, the Korean KOSPI ended last week in a positive area with an increase of 0.44%.

The main reason for investors' optimism was strong statistical data from China. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector last month rose to 41.4 points from April's mark of 36.2 points. At the same time, the value of this indicator is still below the 50-point mark, indicating a decline in business activity.

The gradual lifting of restrictive measures in the capital and other major cities of China, caused by the new wave of COVID-19, is also encouraging.

Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. gained 9.7%, Meituan added 8.3%, and Anta Sports Products, Ltd. soared by 5.5%. Quotes of BYD Co., Ltd. rose slightly less by 5.2%, and Alibaba Group Holding, Ltd. climbed by 2%.

In Japan, the country's central bank reports the intention to continue the soft monetary policy. According to the management of the regulator, at this stage, the rise in prices in the country is caused by individual factors, such as an increase in the cost of energy. The authorities believe that stimulus measures will lead to an increase in wages, and inflation will become more stable.

Among the companies included in the Nikkei 225 indicator, the shares of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. gained 6.4%, Hitachi Zosen Corp. grew by 5.5%, and Idemitsu Kosan Co, Ltd. soared by 5%. Slightly less growth was shown by Fast Retailing securities, which gained 2.5%.

At the same time, SoftBank Group stock decreased by 0.4%, and Sony dropped by 9%.

The capitalization of the largest Australian companies decreased. BHP lost 0.9%, and Rio Tinto dropped by 0.2%.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 07/06/2022

Even before the opening of the US trading session, the dollar began to steadily strengthen its positions, which is quite strange. After all, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Basically, just like today. In addition, there was also nothing in the news background that could somehow affect the development of events. It turns out that what happened most likely lies in the plane of technical factors. Which in general is not surprising, since amid the absence of obvious fundamental factors, the market is switching to technical ones. Also, such a situation may hint at the lack of market participants' faith in the prospects of Europe as a whole. After all, representatives of the European Central Bank are already directly talking about the imminent increase in the refinancing rate, which should be the first since 2011, and which should contribute to the strengthening of the euro.

However, the general state of the European economy, along with the increasing risks of energy shortages, which are most acute in front of the eurozone, cause more and more concerns. What is the trip of Olaf Scholz to Africa worth, in order to find alternative sources of supply, after the European Union's decision to abandon Russian energy carriers. It is quite obvious that even if Europe can find a replacement for Russian oil and gas, it will cost much more. And this is despite the fact that inflation is not even slowing down, and fuel prices are higher than ever before. In such circumstances, it is difficult to feel a sense of optimism about the European economy.

Since the beginning of June, the GBPUSD currency pair has been stubbornly trying to change the trading interest from an upward cycle to a downward one. This is indicated by the price consistently reaching the support area of 1.2450/1.2500.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving to the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates traders' prevailing interest in short positions. RSI D1 is moving within the deviation of the 50 middle line, which indicates a slowdown in the corrective move.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 are directed downwards. This is a signal to sell the pound. Alligator D1 has interlacing between the MA lines, which indicates a slowdown in the upward cycle.

On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a corrective move from the pivot point of 1.2155, which fits into the clock component of the downward trend. The resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720 is on the correction path as resistance.

Expectations and prospects

We can assume that the long absence of updating the local high indicates the completion of the corrective move. The main signal to sell the pound is when the price stands firm below 1.2450 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, we will see a gradual recovery of dollar positions.

A complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price movement within the support area. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal due to the slowdown in the corrective move.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 10, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from June 9

The European Central Bank (ECB) expectedly kept the base interest rate at the same level. The ECB also said that it intends to raise the rate in July. This became the main topic during the meeting as this will be the first time the regulator will raise the rate since 2011. It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate by 0.25%.

The market reaction to this announcement was not so rosy. Perhaps investors were expecting a stronger rate hike.

The main theses of the ECB:

The ECB, as expected, kept the base rate at zero, and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%.

The ECB will end the asset purchase programme (APP) on 1 July.

The ECB intends to raise its base rate by 0.25% in July.

The ECB forecasts eurozone GDP growth of 2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

The ECB intends to gradually raise the base rate after September.

The ECB forecasts eurozone inflation at 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

The ECB plans a second rate hike in September, the pace of its rise will depend on inflation.

At the same time as the press conference, data on jobless claims in the United States was released which recorded an increase in the overall rate.

This is a negative factor for the US labor market, but in connection with the comments of the ECB that coincided at that time, the dollar did not react in any way to the negative on the applications.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits decreased slightly from 1.309 million to 1.306 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits increased from 202,000 to 229,000.

Analysis of trading charts from June 9

The EURUSD currency pair has covered more than 120 points during an intense downward momentum. This movement led to the breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.0636/1.0800. Based on the behavior of the price, we can state the fact of speculation in this period of time.

The GBPUSD currency pair rushed down through a positive correlation with the European currency. This led to another convergence of the price with the lower border of the side channel 1.2450/1.2500.

Economic calendar for June 10

Today, the focus will be on inflation data in the United States, where it is predicted that the consumer price index will remain at the same level—8.3%. In some ways, this is a positive signal that indicates a slowdown in the rate of inflation. The US dollar is likely to receive a local incentive to strengthen.

Time targeting

Inflation in the USA - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 10

The technical pullback is still relevant in the market due to the local overheating of short positions in the euro. This movement can temporarily return the quote to the boundaries of the previously passed flat.

The next downward movement is expected in the market after holding the price below 1.0600. This move will lead to a gradual recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent corrective move.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 10

The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its lower border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range.

Trading recommendations are based on the breakdown tactics:

Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.2600 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2660-1.2720.

Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.2450 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2350-1.230.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on June 14-15, 2022: buy above $1,812 (2/8 Murray - oversold)

XAU/USD came under bearish pressure after falling below the 200 EMA (1,849) and ended the American session reaching a low of 1808.93

In less than 24 hours from the high of 1878.74 to the low of 1808.93, gold fell by approximately $70. This is a sign that risk aversion is increasing and investors will continue to take refuge in the US dollar.

Investors are worried that the Fed may hike the interest rate by 0.75%. As a result, the stock markets declined along with gold and cryptocurrencies.

A technical rebound is expected in the next few hours as gold is in an oversold zone. However, as long as it fails to consolidate above the 200 EMA located at 1,849, it will only be a pullback to resume the downtrend correction.

In the early Asian session, XAU/USD is trading at 1,824 and after having found a strong bounce above 2/8 Murray. The technical bounce is likely to continue in the next few hours and may reach the 21 SMA around 1,838.

In case of a test of the level of 2/8 Murray, gold is likely to return to the zone of 1,812. We should wait for a consolidation above this level to buy with targets at 1,830, and 1,838. It could reach the 200 EMA at 1,849.

In the Asian session, the eagle indicator touched the oversold zone. It means that a technical rebound will occur in the next few hours. it may be an opportunity to buy above 1,812.

On the contrary, if gold resumes its downtrend and trades below 1,812 it could continue its downward movement and could reach the psychological level of 1,800 and the low of May 16 at 1786.70

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold at current price levels around 1,824 or in case of a bounce at 1,812 to buy with targets at 1,838 and 1,849.