official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 21, 2016

 

The USD gained an increase versus the CAD after investors paid more attention to a possible hike in US interest rates rather than a recovery in oil prices. The USD/CAD pair went up by 0.0036 or +0.28% at 1.3060.

 

On Tuesday, the USD/CAD sustained its support from traders after the release of a positive US housing starts data, causing a drastic change in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by at least 50%, after previous indicators showed only a 20% hike.

 

The USD was previously backed up by healthy June data of US Non-Farm Payrolls and an unexpected upsurge in retail sales data. On the other hand, the CAD was previously supported by the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates while rallying for a stronger and more stable economic status.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016

The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.

Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.

The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.

Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.

In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 22, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair finished off last session with a gain of 27 points after the British Pound fell and the Euro sustained its value after the ECB held fast to its policy and rates. Traders are now monitoring Draghi’s address regarding the Brexit vote and the bond buying program. The ECB has left stagnant interest rates in the European Union.

However, the governing council has not taken any steps in spite of the uncertainties brought about by the Brexit referendum. The headline rates are still at zero and banks are still charged at 0.4% as penalty for leaving money inside the vaults of ECB. Retail sales on the other hand fell rapidly since December, with bad weather in the UK put to blame. Meanwhile the present currency volatility caused by the Brexit referendum and the recent attacks in Nice, France and Turkey continue to affect consumer confidence rates.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 22 2016

The AUD/USD pair shifted from greater rates down to a lesser flat rates earlier today. The Australian dollar is experiencing an adverse situation since its net position turned down against the USD. The AUD trading rate is 0.7476. In spite of the relentless decline of the Aussie dollar, the Reserve Bank of Australia will uphold the reduction of the percentage rates within two weeks, although the rate of the US dollar is surging.

After an hour session last Wednesday, AUD/USD can be purchased at 0.7477 while the pair flattened again in the Asian trade. The New Zealand dollar also regressed with the AUD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a statement about their reduction on the interest rates, with regards to the restoration of the economic performance that were issued after the session.

The investors are expectant about the diversion of the United States' monetary policy after the US Federal Reserve increased in percentage rate and the RBA made an interest rate recession. While the Aussie dollar could possibly heightened their rate since it happened last May 2015.

[Andrea FXMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 25, 2016

The USD/CAD pair closed last week’s session with a gain of 1.21% at 1.3128 points as the commodity prices weighed in on the pair and the USD rallied on the commodity currency. After the Brexit vote, forecasts regarding the international economy has been dim, together with views that monetary policy is slowly fading away, with more and more institutions relying on borrowing policies to survive.

With the November elections just a few months away, the United States is now facing a period of economic uncertainty. Political and economic risks are felt worldwide not just because of the Brexit, but also of numerous terrorist attacks, particularly in France and Turkey.

A significant downgrade in Canada’s economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.4% signals a rapidly weakening global economy and business investments. The commodity-rich country experienced wildfires in Alberta, one of the country’s primary oil resources, which caused May’s energy-production shutdowns, according to the Conference Board of Canada last Thursday. The IMF later confirmed Canada’s economic downgrade, after their forecast for the Canadian economy showed a dip at 1.4% from 1.5%.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016

The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a  more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.

The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.

The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016

Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.

The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.

The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.

Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016

The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.

The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.

A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.

Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.

 

The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.

 

The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.

 

USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.

 

A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.

 

An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016

The AUD/USD pair went significantly higher last Friday after the disappointment caused by the stimulus measurements of the Bank of Japan and the weak US GDP report. This increase was further augmented by the inflation data of the Australian market and the neutrality of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement.

This coming Tuesday, investors are anticipating the rate statement of the Australian Reserve Bank, where a lot of investors believe that the central bank will decrease its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points from 1.75% to possibly up to 1.50%. The main trend went down after the Federal Reserve’s statement caused a volatile reaction. However, should there be a trade at .7675, the main trend may change according to the daily swing chart.

Friday’s close indicated a strong buying, after the testing of the retracement zone of .7490 to .7571 which has been tested all throughout the month of July, with its major range at .7834 to .7145. The retracement zone is now in control of the market’s long-term direction.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016

The price of EUR progressed towards the US Dollar subsequently when the GDP data of Eurozone eventuate. The statement of Fed with regard to inflation hawk resulted a possible rate hike for the U.S. dollar.

The EUR/USD pair transcend an upward trend on Friday. The financial instrument directed its highest possible rating approximately in the 1.1200 level. The resistance is set at 1.1200 level whereas the support lies in the 1.1130 level.

The ball bounces in a bull position as attested by the market indicators, the MACD moves within the positive zone which marked an increase in the histogram and registered the strength of the buyers. While the RSI entered the overbought territory.

The 4-hour chart identified the prices of the currency pair that stalled beyond the 200-EMA approaching to a higher probability of the 1.1200 region. The expected target will be in the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1200 due to the viable price return in the forex market.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: August 2, 2016

The EUR/USD pair went down by 5 points at 1.1169 as investors corrected Friday’s overreaction to the weakening of the US GDP rate. The pair exhibited resistance at 1.1186 after the disappointment brought about by the recent Q2 GDP data, but eventually failed at 1.1170.

EU’s stress banking tests revealed that the eurozone’s 51 banks had just enough reserve capital to survive a possible financial crisis in the future. The biggest losers in the said stress banking tests have emerged as UK’s Royal Bank of Scotland, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi, and AIB of Ireland. According to NY Fed Dudley, traders might be becoming too complacent, especially those who failed to anticipate a possible increase in interest rates within the year. This is because of the uncertainty brought about by US interest rate levels and the overall outlook on the global economy.

Inflation rates in the European Union last July rose to its highest levels since the last quarter of 2015, according to Eurostat data released last Friday. The estimated annual inflation rates in the eurozone was expected to be at 0.2% in July from last month’s inflation increase of 0.1%. Eurostat added that this inflation increase was mainly because of higher prices in terms of alcohol, tobacco, and food, which went up by 1.4% from June’s 0.9%. Services also saw an increase at 1.2%.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: August 3, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair traded at 0.8462 points prior to the Bank of England meeting this coming Thursday. Certain factors may weigh in on the value of the said currency pair, such as the Bank of England’s prospective move to cut its base rates below the US rates, which can add to its passive quantitative easing. However, some major banks are speculating that the dollar might be prone to a squeeze following the release of data on Friday.

The EUR has surprisingly done well in spite of the controversy brought about by the Brexit vote three weeks ago. It traded slightly lower than the dollar but is still higher compared to its value last February and has traded higher against the pound, its highest since three years ago. But the IMF has already stressed that Brexit is somewhat more damaging to the EU economy than it is for Great Britain, and the  latest ZEW survey has shown reports of confidence going down, with economic sentiment indicators decreasing to its lowest levels since Germany’s financial crisis last 2012.

Some economists believe that this data means that investors are more concerned with Brexit’s effects on the German economy than the financial market’s response to Brexit.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Technical analysis: August 3 2016

 

The Japanese Yen viewed to increased at its 3-week high after the Prime Minister of Japan officially announced about the stimulus package to reinforce the Japan's economy.

 

The price movements of the pair in the intraday chart seems bearish since USD/JPY go through a downward pressure for the past week. The pair continued to mark down at 100.64 level. The current resistance comes in 101.40 while the level of support can be seen at 100.40

 

The momentum indicators, RSI and MACD is observed to create sell signals for traders. RSI moved into the oversold condition, at the same time the MACD indicated strength in the seller's position due to its downward movement.

 

Presented in the 4-hour chart is the price movement of the instrument that are approximately in the downward trendline that tapped out the 50,100 and 200 Day EMAs.

 

Trader's next potential target exists at 100.40 and speculated a short-term bullish call close to 101.40.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2016

The EUR/USD is trading at a lower value inside yesterday’s range and during the mid-session, which hints at an impending volatility and an indecision among investors. The most recent data on private sector jobs from ADP, which is slated to come out at 12:15 GMT, is being anticipated by investors since the said report will show that there have been 170,000 jobs added by the US economy last July.

The said pair might have a stronger value if the ADP data released will be below the expected estimate. However, if the data comes out higher than expected, then this will drive the EUR lower and increase the value of the US dollar. According to the daily swing chart, the general trend is a downward surge, and even though the EUR/USD pair has increased its trading value since July 25, this has not affected the current trend. The pair is also still trading within the post-Brexit range in spite of its high-pointing momentum levels.

With the pair’s current pricing at 1.1197, the closest resistance point will be the Fibonacci level at 1.1229. A possible trigger for acceleration to the upside might happen if there will be an overtake of the weekly high at 1.1233 and the upward angle at 1.1286. This might also mean another point for a deeper rally at an angle of 1.1356. The EUR/USD will be in a bearish position if there will be a crossover to the weaker side of the angle, which is at 1.1146. This also means that there will be possible targets coming in a support cluster at 1.1092 to 1.1091.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

NZD/USD Technical analysis: August 4 2016

As stated in economic news reports, work compensation in New Zealand speculated for 1.8% but labor price index releases 1.6% compared to their assumption.

The trades for kiwi remained under a negative situation and settled in bearish position yesterday. NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest price at 0.7140. The resistance is deployed at 0.7250 with the support that appeared in the 0.7150 level.

The MACD is plotted in the positive signal. The histogram narrowed down and reduced the strength of the buyer. RSI has been in the neutral territory. The oscillator gradually declined

Moving average cross-over is presented in the 4-hour chart which indicated the EMAs 50,100 and 200 in an upward direction.

Analysts estimates that the market would shift to a bearish tone thus the seller's target comes in at 0.7050.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 5, 2016

The cable pair GBP/USD went down by 150 points after the good news brought about by the Bank of England. The BoE added stimulus by cutting its rates, which increased the sterling pound’s trading value at 1.3165. The Bank of England increased its asset purchases by 425 billion pounds and cut 0.25% from its lending rates. It has also announced its plans to follow in ECB’s footsteps by buying corporate bonds. Money markets were also completely priced in a quarter-point decrease to the main rates of the central bank, and investors and economists believe that there will soon be new measures which can cause the economy to surge after the UK’s decision to cut itself off from the European Union.

On the other hand, the USD remained firm in spite of Thursday’s most recent low in six weeks, while the GBP remained in a tight range on top of renewed anticipation that the BoE will be cutting its interest rates for the first time since 2009 in an attempt to stave off a possible recession.

The dollar index fell flat at 95.56 on top of a six-week low of 95.003 early this week. The most recent focus for the USD is the expected release of US jobs data on Friday. It is expected that this will cause the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates on the latter part of the year. US futures interest rates are suggesting a 40% chance of the Fed increasing its interest rates this coming December.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 5, 2016

Recently, the euro dropped on the second day of the line. The base currency indicated a sluggish position despite of the progressed made by the USD. The investors shifted their focus towards the US non-farm payrolls data that will be issued today, since the Eurozone Economic Bulletin did not submit any relevant reports.

EUR/USD still spotted on the negative territory while the dollar is shown to trade in mixed trend yesterday and edged over euro. The resistance is placed at the 1.1200 level, the support is set at 1.1130.

The momentum indicator, MACD appears a divergence and indicated a sell signal while the RSI is approaching a downward position since it departed outside the overvalued area.

According to the indicator chart, the financial instrument returned to the 50-EMA and crossover the 100 and 200-EMA resulting to a neutral position.

If a price break occurred and the support level is less than 1.1130, therefore a downturn will yield out from 1.1050 to 1.1000.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 8, 2016

The USD/CAD pair experienced an upsurge at 1.3175 after employment data in Canada disheartened investors, while US jobs data went up at an impressive rate. The week’s forecast for the greenback showed a continued surge for the currency pair. According to Statistic Canada’s labour force survey, the market lost a total of 31,200 in jobs last July, the biggest one-month drop in the last five years. Another report also showed Canada’s international trade deficit, which reached up to $3.6 billion last June.

The said data caused the CAD to go even lower against the greenback, which caused a reversal of a short-term moderate strength. The Canadian economy was deprived of one of the most crucial support in the past years because of the stagnant consumer demand during the last two months. This is while the other sources of growth, like energy patch, business investment, and manufacturing continue its struggle.

Analysts are suggesting that a dip in the Q2 GDP is likely to happen, mainly because of the losses incurred after the Alberta wildfires. Short-term interest differentials in the USD/CAD pair will remain in the USD’s favor due to a divergence in the general growth trends. The CAD also weakens during the latter part of the year, and seasonal considerations are being foreseen for the said pair.