official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2021

It looks like the euro is being pulled into a swamp. The euro continued its decline on Tuesday, started on the 10th and almost reached the target level of 1.1300. The potential for convergence reversal formation has dried up. Now two scenarios are possible: the price settles below the level of 1.1300 and continues to decline to 1.1170, or (due to the lack of convergence) makes a sharp return above the level of 1.1448 and lies in the mid-term sideways, about two weeks, in the range 1.1448-1.1572 with false exits in both sides during this lateral movement.

There is not a very strong sign of a reversal on the four-hour time scale - the sideways movement of the Marlin Oscillator. But, of course, this same technical element can turn into consolidation before further, albeit not very deep, decline.

Now, if we hope for a price reversal, we should wait for it to break above the MACD indicator line, above the level of 1.1448. Further growth, as already mentioned, is expected to be difficult, with lateral preliminary movement, with false signals.

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US shares lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58%

At the close in New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 0.26% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.33%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc, which rose in price by 2.49 points (1.65%), to close at 153.49. Home Depot Inc rose 0.64% or 2.52 points to end trades at 394.85. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.38% or 0.61 points to close at 163.28.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 4.70% or 10.12 points to end the session at 205.06. Goldman Sachs Group Inc gained 2.86% or 11.54 points to end at 391.55, while Merck & Company Inc was down 1.80% or 1.51 points to close at around 82.60.

TJX Companies Inc, which gained 5.83% to 73.55, gained 3.25% to close at 1.089.01, and also General Motors Company shares rose 3.19% to end the session at 64.61.

The biggest losers were TechnipFMC PLC, which fell 7.31% to close at 6.720. APA Corporation shed 6.62% to end the session at 27.66. HollyFrontier Corporation was down 6.12% to 32.54.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 39.29% to 1.950, Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 30.96%, to close at 18.400, and Where Food Comes From Inc, which added 29.26% to end at 14.60.

The biggest losers were StoneCo Ltd, which fell 34.62% to close at 20.70. Odonate Therapeutics shed 29.39% to end the session at 2.330. Bit Brother Ltd was down 28.93% to 1.2650.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,227) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,026), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2637 companies fell in price, 1107 rose, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

General Motors Company shares rose to an all-time high, gaining 3.19%, 2.00 points, to close at 64.61. Home Depot Inc rose to an all-time high, rising 0.64%, 2.52 points to trade at 394.85. StoneCo Ltd fell to a 52-week low, down 34.62%, 10.96 points to end at 20.70. Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc rose to a 52-week high, rising 30.96%, 4.350 points to trade at 18,400. Odonate Therapeutics fell to historic lows, down 29.39%, 0.970 points to trade at 2.330.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 4.52% to trade at 17.11.

Gold Futures for December delivery was up 0.80% or 14.85 to $ 1,868.95 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 3.09%, or 2.46, to $ 77.28 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery fell 2.80% or 2.31 to trade at $ 80.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.02% to hit 1.1321, while USD / JPY was down 0.61% to hit 114.12.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.12% at 95.793.

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US stocks multi-directional at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.17%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones lost 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.38% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.45%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc., which rose in price by 4.38 points (2.85%), to close at 157.87. Home Depot Inc rose 2.79% or 11.00 points to end at 405.85. Walmart Inc rose 0.86% or 1.22 points to close at 143.16.

The biggest losers were Cisco Systems Inc, which fell 5.51% or 3.13 points to end the session at 53.63. American Express Company was up 1.89% or 3.40 points to end at 176.21 and 3M Company was down 1.70% or 3.09 points to 178. 77.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Macy's Inc, which rose in price by 21.17% to 37.37, Kohls Corp, which gained 10.62%, to close at 62.48, and shares NVIDIA Corporation rose 8.25% to end 316.75.

The biggest losers were Helmerich and Payne Inc, which fell 16.48% to close at 26.16. Nektar Therapeutics shares lost 8.48% to 11.76 in the day.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Longeveron LLC, which rose 135.27% to 6.870, Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 78.71%, to close at 38.03, as well as Virtuoso Acquisition Corp, which were up 43.95% to end at 14.510.

The biggest losers were Amtech Systems Inc, which fell 26.61% to close at 11,200. Femasys Inc shed 20.53% to end the session at 5.11. Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. decreased in price by 22.12% to the level of 8.98.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,145) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,111), while the quotations of 123 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2610 companies fell in price, 1133 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 2.81% to hit 17.59.

Gold Futures for December delivery was down 0.45% or 8.45 to $ 1,861.75 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose 0.99%, or 0.77, to $ 78.32 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery rose 1.03% or 0.83 to trade at $ 81.11 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.46% to hit 1.1371, while the USD / JPY was up 0.15% to hit 114.25.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.30% at 95.537.

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European equities tumble on news of Austrian lockdown

Earlier this week, Austria became the first European country to impose travel restrictions on people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The republic has the lowest level of vaccination in the region, that is, 65%.

In addition, in Germany this week the record for the number of cases per day was broken - more than 65 thousand people. The country's health minister Jens Spahn did not rule out the possibility of introducing a nationwide lockdown. According to Spahn, the situation is now even more serious than it was a week ago.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.3% and amounted to 486.08 points.

The German DAX dropped 0.3%, the French CAC 40 - 0.4%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.5%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX lost 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

The European Central Bank (ECB) should not rush to tighten monetary policy, even in the face of "unwanted and painful" inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. The main factors driving inflation - supply chain problems and rising energy prices - will ease over the medium term, she said.

Retail sales in the UK in October rose from the previous month for the first time in six months - by 0.8%, but decreased by 1.3% compared to October last year, according to the National Statistical Office (ONS) of the country.

At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the country in November rose by three points compared to the previous month and amounted to minus 14 points, according to data from GfK NOP Ltd., which calculates this indicator. The indicator increased for the first time in four months.

Producer prices in Germany in October increased by 18.4% compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). Growth was at its highest since November 1951.

British home improvement chain Kingfisher was down 4.4%. The company in the third quarter of this year reduced its revenue by 2.4%. However, the report marks a strong start to the fourth quarter.

Irish low-cost airline Ryanair Holdings lost 2.3%. The carrier is set to delist its shares from the London Stock Exchange on 20 December. Ryanair noted that the company's stock trading volume on the LSE does not justify the cost of maintaining the listing.

The banking sector lost the most at the end of trading: shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG fell by almost 7%, Deutsche Bank AG - by 5%, Erste Group Bank AG - by 5.2%, UniCredit S.p.A. - by 4.5%.

The shares of the IT company Amadeus IT Group S.A. were also in the red. (-4.8%) and Wizz Air Holdings PLC (-4.6%).

The growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the British online grocery chain Ocado Group (+ 6.8%), the Polish manufacturer of electronic check-in terminals InPost (+ 7.4%), the French luxury goods manufacturer Hermes International (+ 5.2% ), delivery service operators Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (+ 6.3%) and Deliveroo PLC (+ 4.4%).

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European equity markets finished trading without a single dynamic

Traders have been closely monitoring the change in the number of cases in Europe after Austria last week decided to introduce a lockdown. German authorities have begun talking about the possibility of taking a similar measure due to record rates of morbidity per day. However, in Germany, so far, restrictions have been introduced only for those who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The French authorities over the weekend announced signs of a very rapid spread of the next, fifth wave of coronavirus infection.

The spotlight on Monday was the news that US President Joe Biden has nominated the current head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell for a second term in this post. This was announced by the White House. At the same time, Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, was nominated for the post of his deputy. "I have full confidence that Chairman Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs after having been" tested by fire "over the past 20 months, Biden said in a statement.

Powell's four-year term as head of the Fed expires in February 2022. The Senate vote is expected to proceed smoothly, with significant Republican support, and he will be confirmed in office before the current term expires, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the close of trading lost 0.13% and amounted to 485.46 points.

The German DAX fell 0.27%, the French CAC 40 - 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.2%, and Spain's IBEX climbed 0.8%.

Italy's largest telephony operator Telecom Italia rose 30.3%, supported by news that US investment firm KKR & Co. wants to buy Telecom Italia for 10.8 billion euros.

The value of the world leader in wealth management UBS Group AG increased by 0.9%. The company's board of directors has nominated former Morgan Stanley president Colm Kelleher for the chairmanship.

German bank Deutsche Bank AG fell 0.4%. The bank has nominated the ex-head of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV Alexander Winandts to the post of chairman of the supervisory board.

Hochschild Mining Plc shares plunged 27.2% on reports that Peruvian authorities will ban new mining and exploration operations in the region where the company's two mines are located, due to environmental concerns.

Capitalization of the Swedish telecommunications equipment manufacturer Ericsson AB decreased by 5.2%. The company will buy US cloud service provider Vonage Holdings Corp. for $ 6.2 billion

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Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 24

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was far from zero. But when a signal to sell appeared, the pair rose even though the MACD line was already in the overbought area. This continued for the rest of the day. The upward movement was around 15 pips.

Euro rallied yesterday, thanks to better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing and service PMI in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the statements of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos were ignored even though he mentioned the need for stricter inflation control.

The observed bullish momentum may continue today if the data on business conditions, assessments of the current situation and economic expectations come out stronger than the forecasts. ECB board member Fabio Panetta will also speak, and it could push euro higher if he mentions inflationary pressures

In the afternoon, US will release a report on Q3 GDP, which could raise dollar demand if the figure is revised for the better. Data on jobless claims, income and expenses will also be published, followed by the minutes of the recent Fed meeting. If the protocol does not indicate aggressive intentions of the committee members, demand for dollar will decline.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1253 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1299. Demand will increase if the Euro area reports very strong economic statistics.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1253 and 1.1299.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1185. Demand will decline if the situation with COVID-19 escalates. Weak data from Germany and strong statistics from US will also provoke a decrease in EUR / USD.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1283, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1255 and 1.1216.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 26, 2021

Yesterday, the dollar against the yen could not withstand the pressure from technical factors and this morning fell to the signal level of 114.71 (October 20 high). After the price drops below this level, the USD/JPY pair may continue to move to the magnetic point at 113.20 - to the point of intersection of the price channel line with the MACD line. The price can overcome the target, since below it is the second target level of 112.74, which is desirable for the bulls to work out if they intend to advance further - to create a false downward movement.

To complete the bearish picture, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not reach the negative area. Perhaps this will happen when the price goes below the signal level.

The price almost touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Settling below it, as well as below the level of 114.71, will become a condition for further price movement to the downside. The Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative zone.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2021

The euro has finally started to form a slight reversal from the target level of 1.1170. The miniature double bottom figure at the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale has worked.

We consider the observed growth so far as an upward movement within the framework of the sideways movement of 1.1170-1.1300. The range, of course, can be extended, the other upper boundary is the 1.1375 level - the peak on November 18. In the next two weeks, this level may be reached by the MACD indicator line. Then either the downward trend will resume, or the price will break above the MACD line and outline a mid-term growth.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has entered the positive area. The convergence is fully formed, but it remains to wait for the price to break above the MACD line, above 1.1250. This moment will confirm that the price is in a sideways trend.

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AUDJPY today as we see here, the big trend is bearish so it is good if you open sell position. You can open sell position when the price bouncing at middle area 81.482 with potential target up to 80.554

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 29, 2021

The euro corrected upward by 120 points on Thursday and Friday last week, turning around without reaching the target level of 1.1170. Growth may continue to 1.1375 - the highs on November 18 or slightly higher towards the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown sharply, now it can be in free roaming for some time, which will affect the price in a wide-range sideways movement. So far, this range is defined by the levels 1.1170-1.1375.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price managed to get above both indicator lines - above the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown up high, but it is not yet in the overbought zone, so the price has the prospect of reaching the level of 1.1375. The recovery of the bearish trend will occur when the price moves below the MACD line, below 1.1235. But taking into account the situation on the daily scale, there is a significant likelihood of a false price drift under the MACD line, and then, after the target level of 1.1170 has been worked out, the price may again turn into corrective growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tonight at a social event in New York, tomorrow in the Senate before the Banking Committee, and the day after tomorrow in the House of Representatives. Also tomorrow we will have John Williams, Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. It may very well be that the risks associated with the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus will be affected, and then the maturing expectations of 2 or even 3 rate hikes next year will disappear, and the euro will begin to recover its lost positions.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2021

As a result of Friday's collapse in the stock markets (Euro Stoxx 50 - 4.74%, S&P 500 -2.27%), the yen strengthened against the dollar by 1.72% (197 points). The first bearish target was reached, the price slowed down on the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. Now, according to the main scenario, the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line at 113.06, after which the 110.75 target will open in front of it - the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator has forcefully entered the territory of the downward trend, divergence with the price is formed and confirmed. We look forward to further price reductions.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines - below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator is already leaving the oversold zone, which tells us about the impending price correction before its further decline. The limit of such a correction is seen as the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 114.30, which is the November 12 high (checkmark).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 30, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair once again tested the strength of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe, it is shown in green on the chart. Now this support was strengthened by the MACD indicator line - the price rebound to the upside turned out to be qualitative. The Marlin Oscillator supports the reversal, but still remains in the negative area.

However, the reversal should be confirmed. A visually strong resistance level is the upper border of the consolidation on October 26-November 4 at 114.31. It is also desirable to receive confirmation from the Marlin Oscillator, which needs to move into the zone of positive values.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the bulls' shortcomings, or rather the inadequacy of the work done by them, is seen more clearly. The price is still far below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is moving up slowly and is still in the negative area. Therefore, the likelihood of another attack on support at 113.13 remains high. We are waiting for the development of further events, the formation of any technical signals or the strengthening of the existing prerequisites.

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 30, 2021

The Australian dollar gained 23 points on Monday, the trading range stayed within the 0.7107-07171 levels. Overcoming any of these levels may mean a continuation of the short-term movement: downward to the 0.7065 target (June 2020 high), ascending to the target of 0.7227. The Marlin Oscillator is showing an upward reversal, but it looks weak.

On the four-hour scale, the price approaches the magnetic point - to the point where the target level of 0.7171 coincides with the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator already anticipates this event with a transition to a positive area, entering a zone of a growing trend.

So consolidating above 0.7171 opens the target at 0.7227. This is the main option. If the price moves below the level of 0.7107, an alternative variant will open with a movement to 0.7065.

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Technical analysis recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 1, 2021

EUR/USD

The bears descended to the area of the final border of the monthly Ichimoku gold cross (1.1290) last month. It was not possible to break through the level, the closing of the month was indicated by a long lower shadow of the monthly candle. Therefore, the bulls now have opportunities to develop the rebound from the encountered support. In this situation, it will be possible to make further plans and consider new upward prospects after the formation of a rebound from 1.1290 and consolidation above the important resistance zone of 1.1439 - 1.1492, where several of the strongest levels in the higher timeframes combined (monthly levels + weekly short-term trend + closing levels of the daily Ichimoku cross).

Yesterday, the nearest resistance along the way was tested – the daily Fibo Kijun (1.1379). Alternatively, the breakdown of the monthly support at 1.1290 and the update of the November low (1.1186), will allow us to consider continuing the decline and strengthening the bearish mood. In this case, the closest downward pivot point will be the weekly target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.0806 - 1.0960).

The bulls in the smaller timeframes limited themselves yesterday to testing the final border of the classic pivot levels and failed to continue the rise further. At the moment, they still have the advantage. Today, their intraday pivot points are set at 1.1402 - 1.1467 - 1.1550 (classic pivot levels). The key support levels, which are now located at 1.1319 (central Pivot level) and 1.1267 (weekly long-term trend), allow the bulls to defend their interests despite the long-term trading in the correction zone.

A consolidation below will change the current balance of power and bring back the relevance of bearish targets, such as the minimum extremum (1.1186) and the support of the classic pivot levels (1.1254 - 1.1171 - 1.1106).

GBP/USD

The bears tried to reach the monthly support (1.3164) at the end of the previous month but failed to test the level or close the month next to it. Nevertheless, November indicated the nearest bearish plans – entering the bearish zone relative to the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.3248) and breaking through the monthly support (1.3164).

As for the bulls, it is important for them to keep their position above the current support and attraction zone 1.3248 (lower border of the weekly cloud) - 1.3164 (monthly Fibo Kijun), regain support for the daily short-term trend (1.3351), and also strive to restore their positions to weekly levels (1.3516-76), eliminate the daily dead cross (1.3503 - 1.3586) and rise to the daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bullish traders in the smaller intervals failed to consolidate above the key levels and reverse the moving average yesterday, which resulted in the continuing struggle for key levels. Today's key levels are at 1.3286 (central pivot level) and 1.3322 (weekly long-term trend). A movement below the levels gives preference to the bears. Their pivot points are currently set at 1.3203 - 1.3109 - 1.3026 (support for the classic pivot levels). It is worth noting that the aforementioned levels give preference to the bulls. Their upward targets are at 1.3380 - 1.3463 - 1.3557 (resistance levels of the classic pivot levels).

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Is the pound sterling the restless hostage of Omicron?

The British currency has temporarily gone into the shadow of the aggressive US dollar and the volatile euro. At the same time, the pound is trying to assert itself, while resisting pressure from the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus.

Before Omicron's appearance on the scene, the key drivers of the global market were traders' expectations about the early curtailment of incentives and a rise in rates. These sentiments have now intensified as the new strain has made its own adjustments. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, announced his readiness to accelerate these processes amid off-scale inflation and general instability. He believes that the new COVID-19 mutation provokes prolonged inflationary pressure.

Earlier, the Fed's head agreed that the strongest growth in consumer prices was recorded in the United States, which could push the national economy into the pit of stagflation. Against the background of extremely high inflation in the US, the yield spread between ten-year and two-year Treasury bonds has sharply declined. This indicator turned out to be at a minimum over the past 10 months, which indicates a further downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.

In the current situation, the British currency is experiencing serious overloads. Some restlessness of the pound, bordering on confusion, destabilizes the market. According to analysts, it risks becoming a hostage of Omicron. Despite the current difficulties, the pound is trying to cope with the situation.

The danger of a new strain of coronavirus for the British economy was noted by one of the representatives of the Bank of England. According to the official, Omicron has called into question the further growth of consumer confidence in the country. Economists fear that the new COVID-19 mutation will provoke a drop in demand for consumer services and logistics problems. At the same time, experts believe that Omicron should not affect the Bank of England's plans for a possible tightening of the PEPP.

On Wednesday, global markets and risky assets remained stable. The British currency added 0.17%, reaching the level of 1.3318. However, the triumph was temporary: the pound remained near a one-year low against the US dollar, and then sharply fell to 1.3195. The reason for this fall was the market's doubts about the Bank of England's early interest rate hike. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3291. There is currently no clear trend in the pair, and the support level of 1.3263 restrains the bears' dominance.

Many market participants are quite optimistic. Investors believe that the new strain of coronavirus will not affect the further recovery of the global economy. The pound is trying to consolidate in this trend and strengthen its current positions. According to UOB Group analysts, the pound may decline to 1.3260 in the coming weeks, although this scenario is unlikely.

"A further drawdown of the GBP is possible, but a strong support level near 1.3195 will be a tough nut to crack," the UOB Group believes. According to analysts, the pound is not in danger of serious weakening in the short term.

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Is USD dependent on stock market?

The US dollar is again undergoing a period of volatility, with rare periods of stability, as USD traders await the US labor market report.

Early on Friday, December 3, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1289, below the previous closing price of 1.1299. The US currency edged up slightly before the release of non-farm payrolls, fuelled by concerns over the new Omicron strain, which have now eased.

As markets remain relatively calm, the US dollar has strengthened its position in the run-up to the non-farm payroll release. Strong US labor market data would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates early, analysts say.

Recently, the US dollar has been moving largely under the influence of key interest rate changes, with safe-haven investment demand affecting it only negligibly. The American currency rate has been highly dependent on the global stock market - a new norm, according to some experts.

At this moment, the USD cash flow is determined by equity volatility, as well as risk hedging related to it. Earlier, the inverse correlation was in effect. The Fed's key interest rate is crucial for the market. The yield of US 2-year treasury bonds, which is closely connected with the Deutsche Bank volatility index, is used to determine the future rate. Amid spiraling inflation, investors expect an early rate hike, which would push up the bond yield and the US dollar.

The US non-farm payrolls are in focus at the end of the week. The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 4.5%, with non-farm employment projected to increase by 550,000. The amount of jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began.

Strong US labor market data are unlikely to propel the dollar upward, but it could limit the pessimistic sentiment over the spread of Omicron variant, and allow the Fed to go through with the plan to wind down QE and hike the rates in 2022.

While the markets remain somewhat volatile, with strong NFP expectations stabilizing it slightly, the greenback is likely to maintain upside potential. Satisfactory payroll data and the possibility of an earlier end of QE would push the dollar up.

According to an outlook by Goldman Sachs, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times - in June, September, and December, followed by further monetary tightening. Downside risks for the global economy caused by Omicron would boost demand for USD as a safe-haven, giving it support, Goldman Sachs analysts note.

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Trading is one of the best business ever exist but to be successful you have to stay fully updated. Who will have more information will easily beat competitor.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2021

Over the last trading day, on Friday, the technical picture for the euro has slightly shifted towards growth. The daily rally was small, only 16 points, but the Marlin Oscillator started advancing, indicating an intention to exit the zone of negative values. This advanced growth is shown in the daily chart with gray rectangles.

The probability of price growth, that is, overcoming the signal level of 1.1375 (November 18 high), increases to 60%. Then the 1.1448 target will open. Overcoming it and, accordingly, the MACD line, will become an almost confirmed sign of further medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, since the opening of the session, the price has gone down, which still creates the risk of a deeper decline. This risk is realized when the price moves below the MACD indicator line, below 1.1254, the target will open at 1.1170. Continued growth is likely to resume with the price breaking Friday's high of 1.1334.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 6, 2021

Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line and the daily price channel line (green) for the third time in three days. It failed once again and ended the day with a decline of 29 points.

Now we see that with the support of the declining Marlin Oscillator in the negative zone, the price is trying to overcome the signal support at 112.54. If this happens, then with the greatest probability, the price will go further down to the target of 110.77 - to the lower embedded line of the price channel.

The technical picture is more complex on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the lower border of its own channel, and the line itself is already in the positive area. This is a sign of price growth towards overcoming resistance at 113.20, which corresponds to the MACD line on the daily chart. This will be another exit above this line, and it may no longer be false - the 114.05 target level will be overcome.

A decline below 112.54 will automatically mean that the oscillator will exit from its ascending channel to the downside. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 7, 2021

The outlook for the British pound's growth looks optimistic. The convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is strengthening, the target of 1.3410 - Fibonacci level of 123.6% is slightly opening. But in order for it to become fully open, the price needs to overcome the immediate resistance of the 138.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3315. Failure could push the price down to the 161.8% Fibonacci level (1.3160).

The price convergence with Marlin is formed on the four-hour chart. At the moment, the signal line of the oscillator is crossing the border with the territory of growth. The price goes to attack the 138.2% Fibonacci level and the MACD line. Success will open the specified target of 1.3410.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 7, 2021

In yesterday's review, we identified the Australian dollar's 0.7007/65 range as free roaming territory. At the moment, the price is approaching the upper level of this range, but the price does not show a clear intention to overcome it - the Marlin Oscillator is weakening and shows a sign of a downward reversal. Success, however, will allow the price to hit the 0.7107 target level, which is the Aug 20 low.

The price is still in a downward trend on the four-hour chart. Even the leading oscillator Marlin has not yet left the negative zone. It will probably do this when the price moves above the 0.7065 level.

But the MACD indicator line is next to the 0.7107 target level, which can slow down the upward movement. Therefore, it will only be possible to count on a medium-term price growth after the price breaks above 0.7107. Overcoming the support at 0.7007 will open the bearish target level of 0.6950.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia is publishing a decision on monetary policy, so a strong momentum in any direction is possible.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/8/2021

If anyone needed proof that the market was completely disoriented and in complete prostration, the reaction to the data on GDP in the euro area was incredibly clear. The third assessment was in sharp contrast to the previous two, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 14.4% to 3.7%. So, judging by the latest data, the rate of economic growth has slowed down to 3.9%. In other words, the eurozone economy is doing a little better than it was anticipated over the past few weeks, when they began to publish first the first and then the second GDP estimates. Undoubtedly, this is an extremely positive moment, which should have led to a noticeable strengthening of the single European currency. However, instead, it began to decline actively. Which is absurd in itself. Apparently realizing this fact, a rebound began a few hours later. Yes, such that in the end everything returned to its original values.

GDP change (Europe):

Today, the picture of the day will be largely similar, due to the release of data on open vacancies in the United States. And it is these data that will become an excellent reason not only for speculation, but also for a noticeable weakening of the dollar. The fact is that until now no one has deigned to revise the official forecast of 10,400,000 open vacancies. In the previous month, there were 10,438,000 of them. But the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor clearly indicates that these very vacancies will be noticeably less. That is, we can talk about a noticeable reduction in the number of open vacancies, which will be interpreted as a deterioration in the situation on the labor market. This is quite enough for a sharp weakening of the dollar. Nevertheless, the very fact of a decrease in the number of open vacancies does not contradict the logic of a strong decrease in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it is a reflection of a significant improvement in the situation on the labor market. So after the initial outburst, which will be largely emotional in nature, the situation will quickly return to normal. That is, to the starting positions.

Job Openings (United States):

The EURUSD pair has slowed down the recovery cycle relative to the correctional movement in the area of the value of 1.1227. This led to a stop and, as a result, a reverse movement towards the level of 1.1300.

The technical instrument RSI in the hourly period first gave a signal that the euro was oversold at the moment when the 30 line was crossed. After that, a buy signal was received, which was confirmed when the 50 line was crossed from the bottom up.

On the daily chart, a downward trend remains, in the structure of which a correction cycle has emerged.

Expectations and prospects:

Speculative excitement has led to the formation of a V-shaped formation in the market, where the 1.1300 level serves as a resistance. So, in order for the subsequent growth in the volume of long positions to occur, the quote must stay above the value of 1.1310. Otherwise, stagnation may occur.

Comprehensive indicator analysis provides a buy signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to the recent bounce in price. In the medium term, technical instruments are oriented towards a downward trend, signaling a sell.

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Gold falls while waiting for a strong impulse

Gold is stuck again in a narrow price range. On Wednesday, the level of $1,780 seemed to magnetize gold quotes to itself. They were brought into a state of stupor by comprehensive uncertainty.

The precious metal ended yesterday's session with a very modest increase. It rose by less than 0.1% or 80 cents. The final price was $1,785.50, although its price reached the high ($1,794. 30) since December 1.

Gold failed to gain a foothold at a level close to the key one due to the lack of convincing impulses. At the moment, all the factors that one way or another may affect the pricing of the yellow asset look vague.

This concerns the situation with a new strain of coronavirus, the future course of the US Federal Reserve, as well as the risk of a military conflict in Ukraine. Now, the market expects certainty on all these issues.

Omicron can still help

The panic over the new COVID-19 strain, which has been observed over the past almost 2 weeks, is gradually fading. Investors are again showing interest in risky assets such as stocks. On Wednesday, US stock markets closed in a positive zone after receiving good news from Pfizer.

The pharmaceutical company reported that during laboratory tests, 3 doses of its vaccine managed to neutralize the "Omicron" strain. In addition, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that a new vaccine, which, if necessary, will be developed specifically for this COVID-19 mutation, may be ready by March next year.

As concerns about Omicron weaken, traders' appetite for a safe haven asset decreases. However, experts believe that now is not the right time to part with gold.

According to analyst Ross Norman, the value of the yellow asset may still find support from coronavirus risks in the near future, since investors will focus at the end of the year on the prospect of introducing more serious lockdowns due to the active spread of Omicron.

Is the Fed's strategy a real threat?

The next meeting of the US central bank on monetary policy will be held on December 14-15. Many analysts are confident that the easing of concerns about the new COVID-19 strain, which is observed this week, actually frees the hands of the US Federal Reserve.

Now, all the attention of the regulator is focused on accelerating the pace of curtailing the asset purchase program, which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it would be advisable not to delay this issue and consider it at the next meeting.

Such a rush is due to the fact that the central bank is striving to start raising interest rates as soon as possible and increased inflation no longer seems to the regulator to be a temporary phenomenon.

Some experts believe that the trigger may be tomorrow's publication of the consumer price index in the United States. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to the highest level in recent decades.

Before the release of important statistics, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose above 1.5%, which put pressure on gold. However, the metal managed to resist a sharp decline and even closed in a positive zone, as the dollar index turned out to be weaker than the euro and fell by 0.5% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, market strategist Ricardo Evangelista predicts that the US currency will appreciate in the coming days. He said that this currency will find support as soon as the Fed's hawkish stance becomes more evident. This will deal a devastating blow to gold.

Gold loves geopolitical risks

Another important factor in the gold market, which has been closely watched by investors in recent days, is the escalation of the military conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Gold, which loves geopolitical risks, has responded to the long-awaited negotiations with small growth. During the day, it rose by 0.3%. However, there is no significant increase in the demand for a safe shelter in the market now, because "nothing has changed" after the negotiations and there is still great uncertainty around this situation, analyst Jeff Wright said.

Meanwhile, Market strategist Jim Vykoff believes gold will ultimately benefit from the meeting's failure to de-escalate Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine.

According to him, the situation will become even tenser. This means that safe-haven assets (gold and silver) are likely to be more in demand in the near future.

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American stock indices rose 0.6-1%

As a result of the entire last week, it increased by 3.8%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 3.6%, which was the most significant rise since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4%. This is the most significant increase since March.

Fresh inflation data was released on Friday, pointing to the fastest rise in consumer prices in the country since June 1982. However, investors hope that the rate of growth in prices has reached or very close to the peak values. Consumer prices (CPI) in the US in November soared 6.8% compared to the same month last year. Inflation accelerated from 6.2% a month earlier and was in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, the indicator remained above the Federal Reserve System (FRS) target of 2% for the ninth consecutive month.

Consumer and tech sectors on Friday posted the strongest gains in share prices among the S&P 500 industry sub-indices.

Consumer confidence in the US in December rose to 70.4 points from 67.4 points in November, which was the lowest in 10 years, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this figure. Analysts on average had expected a decline to 67.1 points, Trading Economics reported. At the same time, inflationary expectations for the medium term (next year) remained at the level of 4.9% in the current month, for the long term (5 years) - at the level of 3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday increased by 216.3 points (0.6%) and reached 35970.99 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 for the day increased by 44.57 (0.95%) - up to 4712.02 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose by 113.23 points (0.73%), amounting to 15,630.6 points.

Costco Wholesale, the operator of the largest network of club stores in the United States, in the first financial quarter, which ended on November 21, increased its net profit by 13% and revenue by 19%, which was better than experts' expectations. The company's shares rose 6.6% on Friday.

One of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor products Broadcom in the fourth financial quarter (August-October) received financial results above the consensus forecast. The company also announced a massive share buyback program and a quarterly dividend hike. The price of its shares soared by 8.3%.

Oracle Corp., one of the world's leading software developers, posted a net loss in its second financial quarter, but adjusted earnings and revenues rose above analysts' expectations. The company's shares jumped 15.6%.

Among the leaders of the rise in value among the components of the Dow Jones were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 3%, Microsoft Corp., which rose 2.8% and Apple Inc., which also rose 2.8%.

Meanwhile, Chewy Inc.'s share price fell more than 8% despite strong reporting. The online pet store reported 24% revenue growth in the third financial quarter. The company's net loss in the quarter ended October 31 was $ 32.2 million against a loss of $ 32.8 million in the same period a year earlier.

Peloton Interactive fell 5.4% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from above the market.

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European equities closed lower

Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.8%, Germany's DAX shed 0.01%, France's CAC 40 shed 0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35 shed 0.5% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 0.6%.

Air France-KLM shares lost 3.4%. The airline said it had paid the French authorities € 500 million in debt repayment totaling € 4 billion. In addition, Air France-KLM agreed with the country's authorities to change the debt repayment schedule: if earlier it had to pay off the debt in full in May 2023, now it will be able to pay it off until May 2025.

Germany's Daimler Truck Holding AG, a truck maker, rose 10.7% in its second trading session after divesting from Daimler. JPMorgan analysts have set the target price for the company's shares at 48 euros per share, while Bank of America has set a different price, 40 euros. At the same time, Daimler AG's value fell 0.3% yesterday.

The capitalization of the German software developer SAP AG increased by 2.6% after analysts at UBS improved the recommendation on the stock of the company from neutral to buy.

Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL has confirmed that it is in talks to buy the Swiss drug manufacturer Vifor Pharma. Vifor Pharma shares jumped 18.5%.

Credit Suisse Group AG on Monday announced a structural reorganization and appointed new chief executives for its core divisions. The structure of the bank from next year will consist of 4 main business divisions and 4 regional divisions. Credit Suisse lost 1.8%.

Shares in British mining company Rio Tinto fell 0.1%. The company will write off $ 2.3 billion in debt from the Mongolian government to finally move forward with the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper project.

The market is awaiting meetings of the world's largest central banks scheduled for this week.

The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is holding a two-day meeting on December 14-15, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will release their decisions on December 16, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 17.

The ECB is expected to discuss at the upcoming meeting the future prospects for its asset repurchase programs, while the Fed may decide to step up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program, which it launched in November.

The Bank of England is likely to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, as the latest GDP data proved disappointing, and in addition, the country's authorities are introducing new restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The UK National Statistical Office (ONS) on Friday reported a slowdown in the country's GDP growth in October to 4.6% on an annualized basis from 5.3% a month earlier.

The statistics released on Monday showed an acceleration in the growth of wholesale prices in Germany in November to a record 16.6% in annual terms. As noted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), the growth of wholesale prices accelerated compared to 15.2% in October against the background of higher prices for raw materials and intermediate goods.