official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[Andrea FXMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 23, 2017

 

The Kiwi dollar break up to the upside amid Thursday trading hours and cut through over the region 0.7250, touching higher up to 0.7270 area, however, retreated to 0.7250 mark by which buyers have seen to make its entry towards the marketplace.

 

As the  24-hour exponential moving average still offer support causing the New Zealand to attract the attention of the buyers but pull back is required in order to meet those buyers.

The target is the level above 0.73 and when the commodity sector could at least make some recovery, it could further support the NZD.

 

Having said that, a consolidation will form between the 0.72 and 0.73 levels. Basically, we are on top of the “fair value” which indicates that buyers are nearly able to direct the market.

Ability to break on top of 0.73 will enable the market to crept higher and it may take some time to do so.

 

Moreover, the national currency of New Zealand Dollar appeared to be the strongest among other commodity currencies which have the possibility to keep going.

 

As a buyer, we recognize the breakdown under 0.72 area which is negative and has the potential to revise the overall projections.

 

The 0.75 level remains to be the target In the longer-term, even though it may take quite some time, the longer-term traders still believe that it will happen soon. With this, the market persists in buying the dips.

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 27, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair remains confined within its previous trading range of 1.3200 and 1.3300 points as there were no major events yesterday that could have swayed the current stance of the loonie. As the US dollar has been gaining more and more momentum due to the release of a positive durable goods data, this has been subsequently countered by an oil price surge on the side of the Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been in a deadlock as these events have cancelled out the effects of one another.

 

Oil prices are still consolidating within its price lows but tension within oil-producing countries has lent some additional support for oil prices, enabling them to surge at over $43 per barrel. Since the loonie is highly dependent on oil prices, the USD/CAD pair is then expected to increase subsequently in line with the increase in oil prices. The Fed chose to brush off the weak data coming from the US economy and still went ahead with its planned rate hike, but the market is not yet sure of the timing of the next rate hike since the dollar strength has not yet established itself as far as traders are concerned. This is why the market is now closely monitoring the incoming readings from the US in the short term in order to determine if the Fed is correct with its assumption that the US will be set to release a slew of positive data. If indeed these data comes out as positive, then the dollar strength should further increase as well.

 

For today’s trading session, Janet Yellen is set to make a statement within the day but the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain consolidating within its previous trading range.

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017

 

The USD/CAD broke through the support level 1.32 amid trades in the past 24 hours following the strength from the Loonies and sluggish dollar witnessed by the entire market.

Making it possible for the pair to trail near the 1.31 area, en route to 1.30 in the near-term. The next bounce could probably be seen at 1.30 level.

 

The greenbacks lost steam due to delay from the healthcare reform bill with increasing concerns that the bill should be revised. Another thing to consider is the possibility that the reform will start hitting roadblocks that could make policy decisions a much tougher task. Apparently, this is negative for the American currency and the upcoming data from the US seems to be bad after several weeks. The USD suffers in spite of the efforts of the Fed for not paying attention to the negative data, as well as to bolster the greens.

 

Moreover, Canadian data indicated an uptrend in the economy of Canada which is reflected from the CAD’s value which is further recognized by the Bank of Canada. According to BOC, the time for rate reduction is over since it signaled a hawkish stance which shows that they remain on hold in the near-term and plans to employ rate hike during the medium and long-term. Having said that, the Loonies bolstered along with the steady increase in oil prices that started earlier this week. The Canadian dollar had progress with increasing success causing the USDCAD to move lower.

 

Ultimately, we expect no major news from US or Canada, however, the US inventory statistics for oil is anticipated that could affect oil cost and could further weigh on prices of the commodity-linked pair.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 29, 2017

 

The sterling pound traded sideways during Wednesday’s trading session,  however, break out to the upside due BOE’s Mark Carney plan to have rate hike in case that the global economy begins to speed up. The announcement does not appear to be a revelation rather than a surprising statement. With this, a cut through the 1.29 handle was made and seems to go much a higher point.

 

The area above the consolidation region entered the level 1.30 which is the current target. The short-term pullback would likely to continue in buying opportunities since the volatile had shifted to the upside should at least a continue its motion depending on its impulsiveness.

 

It is suggested to take a longer-term bullish sentiment because the market seems prepared to make a reversal. The obvious line appeared might be a short covering rally, however, it is not that important to know the reason behind market rallies.

 

An ability to break on top of 1.30 region will enable the market to touch 1.3450 mark. At the end of the day, the market has to search for the 1.28 area as it offered massive support and considered the “floor” of the current move to the upside. As we hover above that territory, there is a tendency for the market to impose a “buy only”.

 

Volatility might exist and it is also possible for the players to add their position each time hints for support on pullbacks are found. This could lead towards a bigger position intended for the longer-term trend to the upside.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017

 

The British currency rallied amid Thursday trading session as it reached the 1.30 region. Upon breaking the mentioned area allows the market to lead over the top of 1.3450 in the longer-term.

In doing so, a series of pullback has to be done in the short-term and then, the market is expected to deal with a “buy on the dips” situation. It further requires a bit of cautiousness when purchasing with that high level, however, it does not necessary to sell but should imply more patience.

The Friday would likely to be a quiet session since the presence of volatility in the market is high in the past few trades. Currency markets should take a break at least once in awhile and we believe that this is the perfect timing to do so.

Furthermore, the Canadian and the US independence days are scheduled for the next days which is suspected of draining the liquidity on North America.

With this, there is a possibility that movements are very limited in the next 24 hours which could last until Wednesday next week. However, an upward bias is certainly expected since most market reflects this path.

The most suitable way to engage with this market is to search for the value from pullbacks or waiting for a breakout confirmation.

Headline risks are projected due to divorce proceedings which involve the countries, EU and U.S, nonetheless, the market seems favors the side of the sterling pound.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 3, 2017

 

The EUR/USD slowed down this morning which anticipates a renewed week this Monday morning. As the week started, it established lots of consolidation, in general, and moving over the pairs while traders will go back to work after the weekend, preparing themselves for a fresh start.

It is expected for an interesting week since this is the first week of July and another month usually contains plenty of data from different countries. During the second half of the week, it is scheduled of many upcoming reports including the NFP and FOMC.

Since the US market has the most number of data to be issued within this week, the dollar is currently in the center of attention. While the market expects to witness some development in data.

The US statistics in the past few months were actually weak as the market assumed that the Federal Reserve will not increase rates last month. However, the Fed choose to continue their plan and ignored the sluggish data. But this time, when the data remained weak, further rate hike might not be possible to implement. As the focus turned to the US dollar, the single European currency let the dollar to take the driver’s seat.

Apparently, the EUR is bullish followed by the increasing data within the euro region along with some strong implications regarding the QE tapering of the European Central Bank (ECB). Taking into account these data, the central bank might consider the tapering in a short while. This could also probably maintain a well bid position for the euro for this day and in the subsequent days.

The level around 1.0440 is possible to generate a strong resistance and was able to hold the price in the near-term. Ultimately, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data issued by the United States will set the week and consolidation should be expected, ranging from the pair on either side of the region 1.04 amid the day.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017

 

The sterling pound trade sideways during the course on Tuesday while the choppiness remained in the market shown with a slightly negative tone. The 1.29 region should gain enough support since the market is predicted to receive large trading volumes after the US  Independence Day holiday.

 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will come out amid the session which could likely put pressure towards the market, it will also gauge how hawkish is the Fed Reserve.

 

The market choppiness is expected to continue due to concerns regarding the United Kingdom and the European Union. The British currency is possible to move rapidly without hints as far as the news releases continue to be issued out.

 

When the bullish pressure was able to maintain its position, it could be a significant factor in the market. Aside from 1.29 mark, more support can be found in the 1.28 range below which provides massive support, the mentioned range could probably the “bottom” of the most current impulsive trend.

 

An ability to break down under that point will cancel all bets, however, staying on top of this level requires to look for impulsive moves or supportive candle to the upside in order to make money work.

 

A break over the level 1.3050 freezes this market to move towards the 1.3450 region eventually. Shorting seems unattractive till we reach down the 1.28 handle, however, when we get there the market could possibly decline through 1.26 region. This also influences the Federal Reserve about its hawkish stance which could affect everything that moves ahead to the currency markets.

[Guest andengireng]

Hello, I want to share my analysis for today AUDUSD July 06 2017

 

 

AUDUSD is still moving in a bearish. Please wait for sell signal if support 0.75706 breaks with potential target up to the range 0.75440. As an alternative scenario, if price goes to 0.76314 and found confirmation of sell signal, then aussie potentially move to the range 0.75950. However be careful if the price breaks above the resistance 0.76330 because it will potentially push the aussie up.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 06, 2017

 

The trend line close to the 1.3030 level was achieved overnight which is already expected. Currently, the resistance region is being tested by traders from below. The uptrend is anticipated to continue in the upper region. The 1.1829 level is the limit amid the impulsive trend that cannot be breached.

 

The WS1 was positioned at 1.2788 followed by WS2 at 1.2698 with the weekly pivot at 1.2952 and the intraday support at 1.3015. On the other hand, its WR1 is found at 1.3045 with the Top wave or the intraday resistance at 1.3118 level.

 

For today, it is conducive in trading to keep all the buy orders open and set the stop-loss (S/L) below the 1.2829 mark since the trend is anticipated to bounce and proceed to go further upward.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 7, 2017

 

The British currency went to a volatile session on Thursday and traded sideways, however, returned to the 1.2980 region and test the region 1.2930 another time.

 

The market also contained significant amount of support under the 1.29 mark and attempts to touch the 1.30 area eventually. This is an area that could offer massive resistance and extends towards 1.3050, but a cut through over that level enable the market to climb higher near the longer-term target at 1.3450

 

Remember that the Nonfarm Payroll is released every first friday of the month which is today, therefore, the US dollar is expected to have plenty movement in general. An ability to break down from this point, we shall see the 1.28 region to provide support. The area below there will affect the sterling pound.

 

The pullbacks could possibly have some value opportunities showing a strong uptrend. A break down beneath the 1.28 range will initiate buying the dips on the candles that looks supportive. This could be difficult enough to stay in a trend for a relative amount of time not until a cut over the massive resistance found at the 1.3050 region.

 

When this happens, winning positions could be improved to the upside. Otherwise, a breakdown under the 1.28 will urge to the market to look for 1.26.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

 

The EURUSD traded sideways during Friday’s trading and experienced a session with high volatility since US job figures took a longer time than the anticipated. Nevertheless, as the session ends it appeared that the pair begins to demonstrate stronger stance once again while the weekly candle generates a hammer formation.

 

The market would likely make an attempt to reach the 1.15 region where a significant resistance was seen in the past 3 years. Ability to break above it and a daily or weekly close would indicate a bullish sign showing that the market is apt to resume to go near the 1.18 handle.

 

Having said that, the market is currently in the “buy on the dips” condition in the near-term.

In case that the 1.15 handle was able to be broken down, it will suggest a major signal that the downward trend has ended. On one side, buyers will consider the single European currency in the longer-term or maybe tries to push it up towards the higher levels.

 

This is a situation where the Fed is thinking about the increase in interest rates, however, the European Central Bank recently mentioned the tightening of monetary policy which is quite surprising. With this, the pair requires some rebalancing which we have been witnessed.

 

Otherwise, a break down under the 1.1350 area will test the 1.13 level and a breakdown below that point will consider the 1.11 mark eventually.

 

The overall market seems equal and buyers are currently in the driver’s seat.

 

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2017

 

The market had a long day yesterday since there are few market drivers present in the market which resulted in a low volatility and low liquidity as well. This naturally occurs during the first day of the week, except when there is a special progress happened over the weekend, but there were none. There are expectations for further actions for this day since traders already recovered from its weekend blues and started to continue trading.

 

The EURUSD does not move a lot in the past 24 hours by which the pair moved on a certain side of the 1.14 region without any development in a particular direction. The US dollar remained steady and it’s quite surprising that American traders failed to lead the run during a follow-up action on Friday. Moreover, the NFP report showed a moderately strong position that relieved the fears and uncertainties towards the US economy and this also help the greenbacks to stabilize.

On the first part of the day, it is anticipated that US traders will support the USD to gain further, however, unable to accomplish it. The concerns regarding the ability of the Trump administration to implement their policies remain to continue, but there are barriers in every step. The possibility that the United States will face difficulty for the next couple of years increases in consideration with the changes in policy. This also explains the hesitation of investors and traders about not engaging with the greens, even if the employment report was stable.

 

Some reports say that the ECB may not deal with tapering in the next months but it did not bring such impact against the EUR.

 

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases except for the speech from a Fed member later this day. It is projected for more actions this day on the back of market’s inactivity but the favor remains for the euro-dollar pair.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2017

 

The GBP/USD remained in the pressured area yesterday prior the late recovery that the helped the pair to moved higher and closer the 1.29 level. It further ended the day in an acceptable manner. As mentioned previously, the pound is one of the weakest currencies in the market due to events that continue to impact the GBP. however, there are some signs of recovery and remain to search for ways to have a complete recovery.

 

The dovish remarks of BOE member, Ben Broadbent pushed the Cable under pressure during the earlier session along with some strong selling in the pair of pound-yen that helped the GBPUSD to reach the 1.28 mark, whereas, the pair started another rally during the afternoon trading.

The Bank of England was able to provide support for the British currency but the market was surprised when Broadbent did not stated hawkish comments as expected. It will be disregarded when the data of average earnings index is released and predicted to helped the GBP to increase, then recovery will continue.

 

The testimony of Yellen was the major event for this day but there’s nothing hawkish came out based on what she was mentioned previously, hence, this led to further selling of the USD throughout the markets.

 

It further assisted the pound-dollar to recover and touched the 1.29 mark. It also indicates clear hints about pair recovery and traders should take note of this.

 

Ultimately, there are no major events or releases from the United Kingdom, aside from the PPI data and Yellen’s speech later this day. Both events mentioned would likely carry some volatility, however, the 1.28 area shows a strong buying support. It can be an interesting trading day today.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

 

As mentioned in the previous forecast, the 1.28 region is suitable for the pair to rebound and the GBP/USD was able to begin its recovery prior it moved higher than the said level. The recovery resumes since the Cable was under the consolidation period showing a bullish sentiment.

 

The area within 1.29 contains lots of volatility, even the pair trades around a narrow range and unable to reach either side of the range. However, it was obvious that bulls remain in control at this moment and the level 1.28 would be the indicator, in case that bears urge to take the driver’s seat. There is no fundamental news released the previous day from the United Kingdom and it was one of the reasons why consolidation had formed.

 

The dollar bulls hope to get some support from the hawkish speech of Yellen but the bulls were disappointed as she did not cite any hints about economic strength or the timetable of the next interest hike.

 

This pushed the greenbacks towards the back seat and further helped the pair to remain to trade in a stable approach which is close to the peaks of the range. The PPI data was mainly on expected lines and did not mess up the markets.

 

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United Kingdom except for the significant CPI and retail sales from the United States which is projected to cause a lot of volatility in the near-term. A strong data is possible to move the greenbacks higher and bring into view the 1.28 mark for the GBPUSD.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 17, 2017

 

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen dropped significantly during the Friday session following bleak reports from the United States.It breaks through the 113 level and will attempt to move towards the 112 level which is an important region as it could become massively supportive. Traders will presumably try to push the market down although there is no assurance.

 

A short-term drop is anticipated but long-term traders are looking for charts since there is a relevant support level close to the 110 level. The Market will be kept steamed up.

 

Selling for short-term is probably the best move. Yet, long-term traders will explore for signs of support before trading this pair. Although, soon enough hunters return to the market. It is undergoing consolidation for long-term.

 

The interest rate differential is favorable for the United States no matter what were the data results on Friday. Patience is needed until ]buying opportunities show up. Nonetheless, short-term traders take advantage of the U.S. dollar decline.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017

 

The European yields edged lower, however, outperformed the US Treasuries that pushed the euro-dollar pair to rebound from its lows and close around the peaks of the North American session. The yield differential resumed moving after the single European currency following the dovish remarks of Yellen in front of Congress in the previous week. This would likely lead the Fed to a decision in maintaining its rates until December.

 

Recently, the Fed fund futures on September priced at 8% possibility to move within the said month. The meeting of the European Central Bank held on Thursday could probably be the headline for the week, as Mario Draghi is possible to get inclined with the June script and attempt to slow down pressure regarding tapering.

 

The decline in  Eurozone HICP inflation to 1.3% on year in June will actually trigger more the disagreement of the doves at the central bank of the European Union. While the spreads of the euro area will be release this morning since the peripheral bond markets became more profitable.

 

The EURUSD closed at the renewed 14-month high and bound to test the 1.1616 target resistance around the highs of May 2016. The support of the pair highlighted the 1.1414 region near the 10-day moving average. The consolidation period generated a bull flag formation which is a respite that stimulates higher.

 

The momentum came in neutral while the MACD histogram printed close to the zero index level with a flat trajectory that suggests consolidation.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

 

The Australian currency rallied during Tuesday trading session on daytime and broke the 0.79 handle. The market broke out to the upside and appeared to go moving upwards.

 

After breaking the level above 0.7750, which is really bullish, the market would likely resume to trailed higher and eventually, the next target is found at 0.80 region.

 

Shorting the market is not ideal as the pullback still have a value. This is basically true since the gold market also rallied since the Aussie acts a proxy for the gold markets. It seems that value hunters will remain present in this market.

 

The level below 0.7750 is expected to be the floor in this market and staying at that point will be a buyer.

 

A pull back is needed to establish a stable momentum in order for the 0.80 region be best-selling, however, it may take some time to reach that zone.

 

It is recommended to buy pullbacks and the market could go to the upside when the break out will persist. A move over the 0.80 region enables buyer to enter the market and expand their positions

[Andrea FXMart]

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

 

The New Zealand dollar attempted to move uphill during the Wednesday session but the 0.7375 is a strong barrier. This was followed by a pulled back directed towards the 0.7350 level below. This is an area where buyers are coming back as it is where it broke out before.

 

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was a concern as the New Zealand dollar tries to trade in short positions towards 0.75 psychological level. This has a big influence on the price and is largely resistive. Hence, short-term buying of pullbacks is the way to move forwards and it is best to wait until it breaks below the 0.73 level before shorting this pair.

 

Volatility will continue in the market. As for the U.S. dollar, this is being sold off against other currencies worldwide which is most likely similar to other markets. Choppiness will stay longer in this market as it is expected to move to and fro regarding the greenback as a whole. The 0.73 below is massively supportive.

 

The target would be at 0.75 level which is massively resistive. If the market breaks above the said level, the New Zealand dollar would stay in a “buy and hold” situation. Selling should be put on hold as it breaks lower than the 0.7275 handle which is not a good sign and push this market lower directed to 0.72 level below.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD  Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

 

The market had a difficulty trading the British pound against the U.S. dollar pair for the past week. After the release of the weaker CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. last week, the pair surged to 1.3030 region and reach beyond the 1.31 region for a short period of time for that day. The traders anticipate the trend last week to be continued since the greenback is not performing well as of now.

 

The weakened dollar did not help the pound that frustrated traders. The pair underwent correction lower than 1.30 level during the early days of the week which was influenced by the minor recovery of the dollar which was also exhibited by the euro. It resulted to poor performance in the lower channel. Moreover, the less-than-expected economic data from the U.K. deviated the strong trend of data in the past few months. Although, it is anticipated that the market could recover when the dollar depreciated once again but it failed.

 

The dollar weakened as the end of the week approaches with the outcome of investigations regarding the business transaction of Trump concern rises. Although, most of other currencies take advantage of this situation to move higher. As for the GBP/USD pair, it stays relatively calm. Despite the strong data of retail sales report from the U.K., it was not sufficient to push the pair higher as it closed the week lower than 1.30 level. It seems that there are risks to incur losses in the coming week influenced by the uncertainty from Brexit which continues to affect the British currency.

 

For today, there are not many economic events for the week as the end of the month approaches and data subsided. For next week, the FOMC statement from the U.S. is anticipated to be announced. Hence, the GBP/USD pair is anticipated to proceed with a weaker trading condition close to the 1.3030 regions as a significant psychological level.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 25, 2017

 

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been in consolidation for the past 24 hours and it seems that the support is sufficient enough. This somehow gives a hint that the pair is ready to move up since there is a strong support in the 1.30 region. As the month end approaching, it is anticipated for the money flow to be different come to the end of the month and there will be choppiness in trades to keep the traders to be interested in the market.

 

The pair pushes to reach the 1.30 region and was able to sustain higher than the region majority of the day. For the first day of the week, both the volatility and liquidity was low since there is low trading activity. The pair attempted to reach the 1.3050 level for the day but was countered by strong selling that pushes it back with strong support towards the 1.30. It won’t be long when the next bullish trend happens to move towards 1.31.

 

Risks and uncertainties are still present in trading the pound amid the Brexit negotiation process and the market as a whole. This is why the GBP/USD pair has still not moved out of its restrictions. Although, the Bank of England supports the British currency through its statements and minutes of the meeting that increases the chances for a rate hike in the succeeding months. Yet just last week, the usual strong economic data from the U.K. has had a choppy trading mixed of good and bad results of the data. This has put pressure on the pound and had a big impact.

For today, there is no major news from the U.K. Even so, month end flows are expected to happen throughout the day that keeps the GBP/USD afloat.