official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.

 

Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.

 

For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

 

The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.

 

The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.

 

For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.

[Andrea FXMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 29, 2017

 

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined in the beginning of Tuesday trading but turned around and found significant support level at 0.7587 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish candle was seen and the market tries to move to higher towards the .7750 level and above.

 

Later on, the market was able to break higher than the 0.7648 resistance level completing the downtrend from 0.7749 to 0.7587 level. It is more favorable to buy this pair with chances for a breakout in the gold market which traders are trying to attain and if they are successful in doing so higher than $1262 level, this would give higher returns to the traders.

 

The current price could further go up towards the next target at 0.7700 zone while a break lower than the support level at 0.7587 could follow downtrend towards 0.7500 mark.  

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollar’s strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trump’s frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.

 

For Thursday’s session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fed’s monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.

 

For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administration’s ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trump’s proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trump’s ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017

 

The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of  1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.

The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channel’s upper limit.

 

The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.

 

In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.

 

Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.

 

The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.

 

As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

 

The US dollar is positioned near its weekly highs on Tuesday but the bullish tone of German jobless rate stalled its advancement which offered another leg to the common European currency.

 

Furthermore, the price maintained a bearish sentiment last Friday, however, the bears did not hold its stance longer favoring the bull to reversed few of its ground.

 

The price bounced towards the area of 1.0675 amid Asian session on Friday. The EURUSD made a reversal to the mark 1.0700 throughout the European trades.

 

The 4-hour chart showed the EUR/USD cut through the 100-EMA downwards while 100 and 200-EMAs directed upwards, showing the 50-EMA to drove downwards.

 

Resistance was seen at 1.0700, support entered at 1.0650.

 

The MACD histogram grew less which indicates a sell signal. RSI indicator spent the day around the oversold territory, confirming a renewed higher move.

 

Forecasts say a move on top of the immediate resistance involves higher chance of testing the region 1.0750. Alternatively, a sell-off has a probability to occur towards mark 1.0650.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

 

The renewed figures of British Gross Domestic Product saddened the investors as it presented lower than expected results. The report stalled the current recovery which pushed the spot downwards.

 

The Cable started the day with a bullish tone. Traders successfully lead the price near the resistance level 1.2500 where the spot met new offers. The GBP/USD stirred away from the barrier in the mid-session of Asian hours and sustained a downward sentiment amid European trades.

 

The price moved close the mark 1.2450 in the middle part of the day in which the sterling lost its selling impetus.

 

The 4-hour chart pointed out the 50-EMA being tested by the major. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern, alongside the 200-EMA to appear neutral.

 

Resistance touched 1.2500, support entered 1.2400.

 

The MACD histogram increased indicating weak seller’s position. The RSI maintained its position within the neutral grounds.

 

The major is seen struggling with an aim to build towards the recovery gains. A break over the region 1.2500, the next focus would probably the 1.2600 mark.

[Andrea FXMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

 

On Friday, the New Zealand currency was kept intact below the selling pressure on the back of the sluggish business confidence released by ANZ.

 

The suffering of kiwi extended its softening until Friday. The sellers ran out of steam despite maintaining the control and breaking under the level 0.7000. Moreover, they were able to drove the NZD/USD lower.

 

During the morning, the pair traded in a tight range, viewed in the middle points of 0.7000 and 0.6980.

 

According to the 4-hour chart, the spot crossed downwards to the 50-EMA and resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50 and 200-EMAs continued to move down while the 100-EMA steered higher.

 

Resistance touched the region 0.7000, support made an entry at 0.6950 mark.

 

The MACD weakened indicating strength for the sellers. In case the histogram stayed within the positive zone, the position of the buyers will strengthen. The RSI indicator is in the oversold levels.

 

The price was stuck in a range in order to get some steam used for further activities. There is a possibility of minor correction. Having broken the 0.7000, the radar will prompt 0.7050 level.

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 4, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair had a fairly good trading session yesterday as it tested its range highs and is now trading at just under its range highs. The USD/CAD is expected to remain within the 1.3300-1.3400 region as of the moment and this was very evident during yesterday’s session. The market is now waiting for the string of economic data set to be released within this week. The market is now in a ranging and consolidation mood as traders prepare themselves for the possible repercussions of this said release of various economic data.

 

Oil prices dropped a bit below $51 yesterday, which is one of the main reasons behind the sudden weakness in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on oil prices and as such, an increase in oil prices would mean an increase in the CAD and vice versa. And since oil prices dropped yesterday, this resulted to a weak CAD as well and caused the USD/CAD pair to go above 1.3350 points before moving towards its range highs of 1.3400 points. The currency pair was then met with a lot of selloffs, and although yesterday was a generally very dismal trading session, volatility levels are expected to increase today as several economic data are scheduled to be released within the week.

 

The Canadian Trade Balance Data will be released today, and the market will be monitoring this reading since this is a very essential economic basis for the Canadian economy especially due to its trade relationship with US. This is expected to increase volatility in the pair and could cause the USD/CAD to break through 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.

 

The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.

 

However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.

 

The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.

 

However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.

 

For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.

 

[Andrea FXMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

 

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged on Wednesday session. The market tries to move the price towards the 112 level but still with downward pressure in the upper channel. The pair recovered after some losses as it settled close to 111.44 level despite the market sentiment getting better. Asian shares were seen to advance in the Wall street after the Nikkei PMI rallied to 52.9 in March data as its highest in less than two years. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI reaching 52.4 this month denoting a steady demand for goods and services.

The overall trend of the pair will be in consolidation but the traders should expect choppiness in the trend.

The Resistance level is seen at 112 while the support level comes in at 110 mark and this could persist as the trading range of the pair for some time. A break lower than the 110 mark could induce the pair to further go down towards the 108 level. The 100-SMA maintains its bearish tone while the RSI indicator stayed in neutral after the market lost its impetus to go higher. It is expected for the pair to maintain uptrend before the NFP data to be issued on Friday.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

 

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.

[Andrea FXMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017

 

The New Zealand dollar surged following a break higher than the peak of the hammer during the Thursday session. A strong resistance level is found at 0.70 handle. It is anticipated for the pair to have a volatility and it could increase towards the 0.71 handle when the jobs data comes out and break higher than 0.70 mark. There could also be reversals and the support level to position close to the 0.69 handle. Nevertheless, traders should expect volatility for today’s trading session.

[XKUS]

Good info to take actions. Thank you :)

 

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017

 

The European currency was kept intact below the pressured area against its U.S peer which would likely post further losses. Germany released a mixed data while exports and imports did not meet traders’ expectations. The strong figures of Trade Balance have given support for the EUR. On the other hand, the dovish remarks of ECB President, Draghi place pressure on the major.

 

The entire perspective showed moderate changes on Friday. The EUR/USD stayed near the neutral spot during the morning session as its trades close to the lower end of its weekly narrow range. Moreover, the sellers came in active in the first part of the day pulling the spot downwards. The major cut through the level 1.0650 touching 1.0630 amid late trading of Europe.

Renewed selling pressure occurred prior the New York open. Sellers were able to direct the price through the points 1.0610-1.0600.

 

The price settled under the moving averages as registered in the 4-hour chart, 100 and 50-EMAs turned lower while 200-EMA continued to heads up.

 

Resistance reached 1.0650 area, support highlighted 1.0600 region.

 

The MACD histogram softened which signaled sellers’ strength. RSI headed southwards confirming a current downtrend.

 

The spot is expected to resume a bearish tone within a short period of time. A break under 1.0600 is awaited as it may trigger for a lower support.

[Andrea FXMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017

 

The Australian dollar became weak on Friday along the sluggish statistics of Performance of Construction Index. Meanwhile, the risk off sentiment amid Asian session have put pressure on risk assets including treasury yields, equities, and the Aussie.

 

The pair continued to be well offered last Friday and resumed a negative sentiment throughout the day. The AUD leave the region 0.7550 during the night trades extending its bearish impetus within the day.

 

The sellers were able to reach the 0.7515 mark and rebounded. The major hovered over its session lows until the outset of North American hours.

 

As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD is positioned under the moving averages which shifted lower. Resistance holds 0.7550, support pierced into 0.7500.

 

The MACD histogram sustained its level affirming sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is found near the oversold territory which signaled a lover move.

 

Forecast says the pair would continue to decline within a short period of time. We still expect for a further move towards 0.7500.

[Andrea FXMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair has managed to make a slight recovery during the previous trading session as the USD strength wavered slightly and is now trading at just over 1.2400 points. The strength of this currency pair is not expected to translate into a bullish stance since the pair could possibly persist with its ranging and consolidation action on both sides of 1.2400 points. The market has been very slow during yesterday’s session and this is expected to seep through up to today’s session, especially since the majority of traders are now in a stop and stare mode as they do not have any kind of significant trade bases as of the moment.

 

The uncertainties surrounding the Syrian war has somewhat died down since there are no recent updates with regards to the ongoing war in the region. However, there’s no denying that these problems continue to exist and this is why traders are still afraid to direct their trades into any direction lest they be caught once the pair reverses its price action due sudden events such as the US airstrike on Syria last week. The GBP/USD pair is now caught within the range of 1.2100-1.2600 and does not look poised to move in any direction now that the Brexit negotiations are about to begin. The start of the negotiations are not expected to induce significant volatility since both sides are expected to hold their own. This is also the reason why traders are refusing to take specific trade directions for the moment.

 

For today’s session, the UK CPI data is scheduled to be released while there are no major releases from the US economy. The GBP/USD pair is expected to stay put no matter how the CPI data pans out within the day.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 12, 2017

 

The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesday’s session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.

 

There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.

 

Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.

 

It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.

 

For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.

[Andrea FXMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 17, 2017

 

A sell-off occurred last Thursday was followed by the building recovery attempt by the single European currency on Friday. Meanwhile, sellers were unable to cut through below the region 1.0600. In light of this, the price resulted to rebound through the level during the night and trailed northwards amid day trading.

 

The EURUSD highlighted 1.0625 in the late session of Europe. Resistance entered the area 1.0650  while the support lies at the mark 1.0600.

 

A fresh bearish pressure is expected in the short-term. A breakout within 1.0600 would direct to its next objective at 1.0550.

 

Moreover, the major headed through 1.0650 for a correction. A gapped near the region would extend the recovery towards 1.0675. A bounced off hitherto will send back bearishness in the market.