official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

The American dollar was able to rub out its losses versus the euro prior to the speech of Yellen yesterday. The greens further acquired some support from the consumer price index of U.S which met the expectations of investors. Moreover, the decision of the ECB about its interest rate will be announced later this day.

 

The market structure remained  to be bullish on Wednesday. The single European currency executed an upside impulse and return from its weekly high towards 1.0716.

The ongoing rebound is deemed to be corrective during the profit-taking behind the current rally. The EUR/USD retreated under the 1.0700 level amid morning trades on Wednesday and it hovered throughout the level as the EU session took place.

 

The 4-hour chart shows the price resumed its advancement on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs continued to be bullish while 200-EMA stayed on the neutral position shown in the same time chart. Resistance sits at 1.0700, support lies at 1.0650 region.

The MACD histogram falls which indicate weak position of the buyers. The RSI oscillator kept around the overvalued territory.

 

The pair is expected to moved near the immediate support 1.0650. In case the level breaks, the support will return to 1.0600. However, the EUR will receive short-term support as much as 1.0500 remained intact.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair was previously situated in a very critical support region and has reverted in the region just below 1.3000 points. The Bank of Canada has already released its statement regarding the central bank’s rates, and the bank also held a press conference later in the day. The pair’s strong bounce was seen as the US dollar and the Canadian dollar went in highly opposite directions during the previous trading session.

 

The USD had already regained its lost strength and has exhibited positive activity across the board after Yellen announced that the Fed could possibly go for more rate hikes in the future if the economic data from the US continues to be positive. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada announced that it will be making no changes on its current interest rates. However, the succeeding press conference from BoC’s Poloz has made it clear to investors that the Canadian economy has not shown any progress and has instead stayed in the same place. Moreover, Poloze expressed his sentiments regarding a possible trade war under the Trump administration, and this has adversely affected the CAD and has caused the USD/CAD pair to revert back from the 1.3000 trading range and was able to shot up through 1.3100 and even through 1.3200 where it currently sits above as of present time.

 

Market players are expecting that the USD/CAD pair might be in for a strong uptrend and could possibly reach 1.4000 points. For today’s trading session, Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, while US will be releasing its oil inventory data as well as the Unemployment claims data. These are expected to induce volatility in the pair. However, it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be in for an uptrend in the long run.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

USD/ CAD Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair traded with a bullish tone on Friday. The uptrend reached the 1.3330 level in the beginning of the trading session. Later that day, the buyers were able to surpass the level as it persists to move higher in the mid-European trading session. Yet, it was not able to reach the 1.3400 level as the price withdraw back to 1.3330 losing its momentum during the New York trading session.

 

The Resistance level is seen at 1.3400 while the support level comes in at 1.3330 level. The Moving Averages broke in the upper channel and the price managed to linger higher for the day as the 20-EMA moves upward. On the other hand, the 100-EMA is moving lower while the 200-EMA moves in a neutral chart. Overall, the MACD histogram implies the buyers leading the market. Moving with it, the RSI was set within the overvalued readings where a new high is still possible.

 

Both the Retail sales and Consumer Price Index Reports did not meet the expectations of investors. Nevertheless, this has minimal effect to the currency but it is still under pressure despite the strong greenback.

 

The pair maintained its upward direction from 1.3018 level following the consolidation state of the uptrend at 1.3387 level. A close higher than the 1.3330 level may set it in motion to move towards 1.3400 level and if the pair strongly sets at 1.3400, this indicates the continues uptrend. However, if the market fails to break higher than the 1.3400 level, this would mean a negative outlook to the market.

 

Overall, the price trend remains bullish ranging from 1.3240 level to 1.3387 level until the next days to come but if the sellers dominate the market, this could move the price towards the 1.3190 mark instead.  If the market is able to maintain the current support level at 1.3240 level, the market could anticipate a continuous uptrend with the next target at 1.3500 level.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017

 

Subsequent to the speech made by Janet Yellen, the US dollar abated. But the greens reversed few of its losses on Friday on the back of the inauguration speech of Donald Trump.

The greenbacks attempted to reach 115.00 barrier amid Asian hours. The bulls pushed the level prior to the onset of the EU trading. The price was unable to maintain its upward impetus and turn back through 115.00 eventually.

 

The 4-hour chart indicates that the price rebounded to the 50-EMA during the Asian session and it further moved between the 50 and 100-EMAs in the Euro hours. The 100 and 50-EMAs employ a downward trend while 200-EMA was confined in the flat lining. Resistance touched the 116.00 level, support hit 115.00 area.

 

The MACD histogram arrived in the positive zone and if it hovered on its position, the buyers will strengthened. RSI stayed around the overvalued territory.

 

The general outlook for the pair remained to be bullish as it rack up through the resistance region 116.00.

 

The USD/JPY could fail and return to the downside in case the 115.00 handle were unable to support the bullish investors.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

 

The EUR/USD increased for the past few days following the sluggish stance of the greenbacks. The single European dollar benefited from the position of the greens as it climbs to 1.0700 and further extended its gains. The USD weakened with no definite reason as others deemed for the general correction while some claimed it’s all because of the skepticism for Trump’s administration. However, the American currency is clearly at a disadvantage point against the euro.

 

The EUR is relatively buoyant for the previous week, much more when its U.S peer manifested some strength. The euro continued to bounce back from a limited correction and eventually broke the 1.0700 level, en route 1.0840 region.

 

There are some issues that the weakness are caused by the speech of Trump coupled with the curtailment for the rest of Obamacare. Moreover, there exist a general risk about the US President’s team and their plans and these uncertainties weighed on the USD.

 

As the last week of January enters, the economic news is lessened while the upcoming is a beginning for the USD towards an unidentified state which brings higher volatility.

 

The US and Euroregion do not have major reports to be released for today, what we expect is the continuous fall of the greens.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

 

Today’s trading session is expected to be very critical for the GBP/USD pair since UK is now awaiting for the release of the country’s SC ruling with regards to its eurozone membership, as well as the Brexit process, which is set to be released during today’s session. The GBP/USD pair has increased in value over the past 24 hours as part of market anticipation, with the currency pair closing yesterday’s session at over 1.2500 points after months of being unable to go over 1.2500 due to repeated pummeling from bears of the said currency. However, since yesterday was a generally good day for the sterling pound, the market is expecting that this currency pair would be able to reach 1.2700 or even 1.2800 in the short-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

 

The UK Supreme Court will be releasing its decision on whether the Article 50 will have to undergo scrutiny from the Parliament or otherwise, since the Article 50 is an essential factor on the carrying out of the Brexit process. The market is generally anticipating that the SC will be approving the Article 50 invocation, and if this does happen, then this will ensure that the whole of the Brexit process will be well-thought of, and this will ensure that equal distribution of ideas instead of the power becoming limited to select people in the government. This is expected to drive up the value of the GBP, but then there are also some risks that the Parliament approval might cause delays in the Brexit process since all views and ideas must be taken into consideration as part of the process.

 

There are no major news releases from the UK except for the SC ruling for the Brexit process, as well as from the US.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade within a tight range and consolidated for the most part of yesterday’s trading sessions. The CAD was recently subject to an increased pressure after the Bank of Canada expressed it plans to implement an interest rate cut in the next few months as a result of the Canadian economy becoming increasingly stagnant after not showing much development in the recent economic readings. This added pressure in the CAD has however helped in offsetting the dollar weakness during the past few days.

 

The Canadian dollar is probably the only currency which the USD has gained in relation during the past few sessions and has continued to maintain its gains over this currency, while other major currencies have increased in value and has left the dollar behind. The US dollar has been in hot water recently, especially since the market is generally uncertain on Trump’s administration policies and how the newly-minted president plans to run the US economy. The market is constantly kept on its toes as Trump continues to act brash in spite of the initial euphoria during the US elections, where the market had hoped that Trump’s election might be generally be good news for businesses around the world. However, the current administration might have to undergo a lot of work before finally regaining the market’s confidence.

 

There are no major news releases from both the Canadian and the US economy, and as such, the USD/CAD pair is expected to experience more consolidation and ranging during today’s session. Since the weakness of both currencies are apparently cancelling each other out, the currency pair is unable to make any significant progress and the bulls might have a hard time pushing the currency pair towards 1.3400 points and higher.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 25, 2017

 

As the Asian session emerged, the bullish momentum appeared to be short-lived yesterday. The price failed to hold its gains and reversed down from the 0.7250 level. Sellers expanded their profits breaking the price through 0.7200 region amid the EU trades. The selling interest was unable to maintain its position upon reaching the region and endured price rejection upwards.

 

The NZD/USD is confined on top of the moving averages based on the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMA kept its bullish stance while 200-EMA was flat. Resistance touched 0.7250 mark, support entered 0.7200 handle.

 

The MACD tool still presented the same position as buyer’s strength continued to grow. The RSI settled close to the oversold readings, confirming another lower trend.

Meanwhile, the 0.7250 barrier is the next bullish target. In case, a return occurred towards 0.7150 there is a probable decline against the 0.7100 support.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 25, 2017

 

Traders have locked in few profits prior to the ruling of the UK Supreme Court regarding the EU exit. The court should make a decision if it is required for a Parliament approval in launching the Article 50.

 

The market structure presented a bullish sentiment on Tuesday. Buyers were unable to regain 1.2500 level and needed to give up the floor to the sellers. A renewed buying interest around the greenbacks had supported the US currency to recover from its recent lows.

Sellers were able to lead the price lower amid Asian session, however, failed to move beyond the lower mark 1.2460 before the onset of the EU hours.

 

The GBPUSD keep on sliding through the area of 1.2450 before the opening of the New York session. According to the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are trading mixed. The 200-EMA preserved its bearish signal while 100 and 50-EMAs moved higher as the 50- day MA crossed the 100-EMA upwards.

 

MACD grew less which confirmed growing strength for the sellers. RSI stayed in the overbought area.

 

A break on top of the 1.2500 mark is the least required point in order to establish a bullish resumption. The most probable scenario is that buyers could take the price through the 1.2540 region and took 1.2600. While a close below the level 1.2400 will lessen the prevailing upward pressure but before reaching this level, a buy signal will be implied.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

 

EUR/USD  Technical Analysis: January 30, 2017

 

The European currency slowed down followed by the improvement on the dollar’s stance. The euro were left flat-out due to the absence of the market-moving news in the calendar. The EUR resumed to move down smoothly overnight and break away from the near-term rising channel. The euro had traded mixed as the Asian trades opened and hovered in the tight ranges of 1.0650-1.0690.

 

The EURUSD is confined in the neutral position in the morning EU session and met renewed bids within 1.0700 level. It further rallied around the level, en route 1.0750 prior to the outset of NY hours.

 

According to the 4-hour chart, the price leads the 50-EMA lower and headed northwards together with the 100-EMa. The spot hovered on top of the 100 and 200-EMAs eventually. Resistance is seen at 1.0750, support hit 1.0700.

 

The MACD proceeded to the negative zone and if the histogram stayed in this area, the position of the sellers will improve. The RSI lies in the oversold territory near the neutral ground.

A close on top of the 1.0700 mark will produce renewed bullish indicator which is possible to advance towards 1.0750.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 30, 2017

 

The sterling softened on the back of the demand growth for the greenbacks. The GBPUSD was able to recover few of its losses subsequent to the meeting between Trump and May.  The US data showed some pessimism which further hit the pair higher.

 

The British currency loses its value against its U.S peer during the night trades on Thursday. The spot was removed from 1.2600 level and placed in 1.2500 region amid Asian session. The pound extends its losses during EU hours, en route 1.2500. However, the level stalled the seller’s progress and kicked the spot higher. The price resumed its development on top of the moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart while the 100 and 50-EMAs stirred upwards and the 200-EMA sits in the neutral position. Resistance touched 1.2600, support jump in the 1.2500 mark. The MACD histogram weakened which further slowed down buyer’s position. The RSI escaped from the overvalued territory and came in through the neutral zone.

 

The bullish outlook generally exists in the market while the pair got an opportunity to make recovery in case it surpassed 1.2600. A breakout within the 1.2600 handle would direct to 1.2700. Furthermore, the prevailing selling pressure could impact the spot and pushed below the mark 1.2500.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 30, 2017

 

The American dollar was able to sustain a bid tone last Friday. Meanwhile, the markets highly anticipated for the further plans of Trump coupled with the GDP of the country for the fourth quarter. The NZDUSD kept intact in the ascending channel pattern on Friday. The price were pushed by the downward impetus toward its lower limit last 26th of January. Moreover, a recovery lasted overnight showed insignificant results. The European traders solely managed to drive the spot upwards

 

The pair was able  to expand its recovery during the NA session. The price continuously sits on top of the moving averages according to the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs moved  higher while 200-EMA is positioned in the neutral trend mentioned in the similar chart.

 

Resistance entered 0.7300, support reached the 0.7250 region. The MACD indicator confirmed weak buyer’s position as it decreased steadily. Bullish sentiment was likely to prevail for today. The short-term goal for the pair is 0.7311.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 30, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair closed down the week on a much lower note as compared to the previous trading week after the Canadian dollar exhibited strength across the board and the USD weakened in value yet again even though it was able to recover during the latter part of the week. This particular recovery of the US dollar looks like it will be here for the long run, and this is why dollar bulls are putting added confidence to the performance of the US dollar in the next trading sessions. In addition, the Trump administration has already went about making changes and fulfilling its campaign promises, such as the shifts in Obamacare and the Mexican border wall, and the pulling out of US from trading agreements with Canada and other neighboring countries. This has created unrest in the market, and could open the doors for a possible trade war which is very bad news even for the US economy.

 

This has then prompted the USD/CAD pair to drop significantly in value from 1.3450 to 1.3000 points, but was saved by the sudden surge in the USD’s value as the previous week came to a close. The Canadian dollar also received support from the resiliency of oil prices, which managed to stay put in spite of the recent increase in the value of the US dollar. Market players are expecting this uptick in the USD/CAD to continue and could possibly extend up to 1.4000if it manages to stay just above 1.3000 points.

The Canadian GDP will be released this week, and governor Poloz from the Bank of Canada will also be releasing a statement this week. On the other hand, US will be releasing a string of important economic data including the NFP, wage earnings, as well as the statement from the FOMC. These are all expected to induce volatility in the market, and traders should either exercise caution or wait for things to settle before trading with this currency pair.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

The Japanese yen inched higher as opposed to the US dollar as a result of a flight-to-safety trend across the market, which was triggered by investor reactions to a sudden drop in global equity markets. Meanwhile, stocks were sold off as a result of Donald Trump’s immigration ban. The USD/JPY pair closed off the previous trading session at 113.778 after decreasing by -1.10% or 1.269 points.

 

A lot of investors have sought the protection of the Japanese yen after protectionism concerns arose due to the immigration ban since these could possibly have a negative effect on both exports and imports and could also create substantial risks for the economy. Towards the latter part of yesterday’s session, the Japanese Household Spending data came in with a reading of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations of 0.8% and the previous reading of -1.5%. However, the unemployment rates for the country remain stagnant at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan chose to maintain its current benchmark interest rates at -0.10%, a move that was generally anticipated by the majority of market players. The central bank also increased its GDP forecast to 1.4% as opposed to its past prediction of 1.0% back in October. In addition, the BoJ also stated that it is expecting an inflation surge of around 2% come the fiscal year 2018.

 

Interest rate differentials could have a positive effect on the USD/JPY pair since the central bank chose to maintain its interest rates while the Fed hinted at high-frequency rate hikes for 2017. In the short term, the USD/JPY could be driven by volatility coming from the equity markets. However, the dollar-yen relationship could possibly be influenced by the positive interest rate differentials.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair’s activity has been very disappointing during the past 24 hours, which could be largely due to the fact that the market is nearing the end of the month. Towards the end of every month, the UK government is required to pay its membership fees to the European Union, and this usually amounts to 1 billion euros, and this usually induces volatility in the movement of the sterling pound. These monthly dues from the UK are usually masked by the banks which process these transactions, but these show more often than not, and this contributes to the drop in the value of the GBP.

 

Market analysts have constantly saying that the direction of the sterling pound would most likely be influenced by the Brexit process, and this has been already seen with the increased pressure on the GBP/USD pair. This particular pressure on the pound is expected to continue until such time that the Brexit process is finally completed, and this is also the reason why the pound climbed up to trading highs near 1.2700 but eventually corrected and is now expected to hit 1.2300 points in the short term. The GBP will remain to be one of the weaker currencies, and although there might be a few intermittent reversions at the expense of the dollar weakness, these are not expected to follow through in the long term.

 

There are no major news releases from the UK set to be released today but the US will be releasing its consumer confidence data. Month end flows are expected to come in today as this is the last day of the month, and traders are advised to take the necessary precautions to protect themselves from the onslaught of additional volatility today.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair’s activity has been very disappointing during the past 24 hours, which could be largely due to the fact that the market is nearing the end of the month. Towards the end of every month, the UK government is required to pay its membership fees to the European Union, and this usually amounts to 1 billion euros, and this usually induces volatility in the movement of the sterling pound. These monthly dues from the UK are usually masked by the banks which process these transactions, but these show more often than not, and this contributes to the drop in the value of the GBP.

 

Market analysts have constantly saying that the direction of the sterling pound would most likely be influenced by the Brexit process, and this has been already seen with the increased pressure on the GBP/USD pair. This particular pressure on the pound is expected to continue until such time that the Brexit process is finally completed, and this is also the reason why the pound climbed up to trading highs near 1.2700 but eventually corrected and is now expected to hit 1.2300 points in the short term. The GBP will remain to be one of the weaker currencies, and although there might be a few intermittent reversions at the expense of the dollar weakness, these are not expected to follow through in the long term.

 

There are no major news releases from the UK set to be released today but the US will be releasing its consumer confidence data. Month end flows are expected to come in today as this is the last day of the month, and traders are advised to take the necessary precautions to protect themselves from the onslaught of additional volatility today.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The market has been generally expecting the USD/CAD pair to undergo a period of ranging and consolidation as the US prepares to release its NFP report, and this was what happened with this particular currency pair during the past trading sessions. The USD/CAD is currently trading at over 1.3000 and is headed in a generally disappointing trading streak, but then again this region has strong support barriers, and this region might be a good place for traders to go long with a stop loss.

 

Oil prices have already settled down last month and has exhibited little activity on both directions. As a result, the Canadian dollar was able to obtain some support and the economic data scheduled to be released from Canada are also expected to be generally positive, and there are no major changes expected to occur within the Canadian economy. The drop in the value of the USD/CAD was mainly due to the weakness of the dollar, and once Trump makes major changes in the NAFTA agreement, then the trade relationship between US and Canada could be up for some major adjustments. This has no positive effect on both economies whatsoever, and this uncertainty has been fueling the drop in the value of the currency pair.

 

There are no major news expected to be released from the Canadian economy today but the market is expecting the release of the NFP report as well as the average earnings data and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. If these data comes out as positive, then this could further affirm an interest rate hike from the Fed in the near future, but a weak reading could cause the USD to further decrease in value.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2500 points after briefly reaching 1.2700 points after traders took sell opportunities every time the GBP/USD exhibited reversions. The Bank of England released its statement yesterday and maintained its current rates as expected, while the monetary policy meetings and inflation reports did not deliver anything significant to the economy and did not induce any market activity. However, these neutral readings had adversely affected the currency pair since the majority of market players were expecting hawkish comments from the BoE as well as from the inflation reports, but since both of these data came out as neutral, the market was generally disappointed and this put a significant amount of downward pressure on the value of the sterling pound. However, it was a good thing that the dollar was weak, since if the dollar were stronger then the pound might sink even lower.

 

The pound is expected to continue its losing streak, and any reversions are expected to be met with major sell-offs, especially with the oncoming volatility which will be caused by the implementation of the Brexit process. For today’s session, UK will be releasing its services PMI data and US will be releasing its NFP reports and wage earnings data. These string of economic readings set to be released today are expected to increase the pair’s volatility. The market is expecting a positive US labor report, and if this happens, then the GBP/USD pair might be able to break through 1.2500 and move further towards 1.2400 points.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.

 

Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.

 

For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.

 

[Andrea FXMart]

 

 

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

 

The Kiwi against greenback declined on Friday's trading session. A strong support was found at 0.7250 level but was able to reverse the trend after forming a bullish candle while the resistance is found at 0.7350 level. If the price breaks higher than the psychological levels which will then result to a decline to the 0.71 level. Traders should expect high volatility in the market. Hence, fluctuations and rough trading for the pair.