official Eur/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Forecast By Anton Kolhanov

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

EUR/USD, Weekly forecast, August 22 - 26: downtrend to 1.1100
Main scenario:
The pair is rebounding from strong resistance 1.1355, from that we can expect downtrend with target on 1.1100, that will continue while market is trading below resistance 1.1355.

Alternative scenario:
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1355, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.1450.

GBP/USD, Weekly forecast, August 22 - 27: downtrend to 1.2920
Main scenario:
The pair is rebounded from resistance 1.3180 and now is trading in downtrend with target on support 1.2920.

Alternative scenario:
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.3180, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.3300.

WTI, Weekly forecast, August 22 - 27: break down of 46.40 will open target on 41.30
Main scenario:
The pair is trading very closer to main resistance level 49.50, from that we can expect downtrend with target on 41.30, but to confirm that scenario makret is need to drops below support level 46.40.

Alternative scenario:
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 49.50, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 53.00.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

EUR/USD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1.1115 and resistance 1.1195.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.1115, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0975.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1195, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1235 and 1.1320.

 

GBP/USD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1.2920 and resistance 1.3035.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.2920, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.2700.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3035, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3200.

 

GOLD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1313 and resistance 1323.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1313, which will be followed by reaching support level 1294.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1323, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1329 and 1340.

 

WTI, 21.09.16
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 44.15 and resistance 45.70.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 44.15, which will be followed by reaching support level 43.50 and 42.80.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 45.70, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 47.30.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

CORN, September 26 - 30: uptrend with target on 320
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a downtrend with target on 320, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 333.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 333, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 342.

 

SOYBEAN, September 26 - 30: break down of 943 will open target on 915
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 943 and resistance 951, where downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 943, which will be followed by a move down to support level 915.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 951, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 979.

 

COTTON, September 26 - 30: break down of $69 will open target to $67.30
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 69.60 and resistance 71.00, where downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 69.60, which will be followed by a move down to support level 67.30.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 71.00, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 73.60.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Daily forecast from September 7: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GOLD, CRUDE OIL
EURUSD

Market is trading sideways between support 1.1908 and resistance 1.1977 waiting for todays (thursday) EU % rates and after Draghi speech, where the last will be most important.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1977, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.2065, where next strong resistance we have on 1.2230.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1908, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760.

GBPUSD

Market is trading in uptrend with target on key resistance level 1.3135 and the uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3010 - 1.2975 and if after today's Draghi speech nothing will not be changed.
But if Draghi will provoke downtrend in euro, that will made the same influence on gbpusd too. In that case downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2975, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2900.

GOLD

Market is running up with target to key resistance level 1349 and uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1339.
But today's ECB news can change this uptrend, in case of that downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1331, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1314.

US CRUDE OIL

Market is trading in uptrend with target on the key level 49.70 and uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 48.56.
Today we have "Crude Oil Inventories" news, that can start downtrend if  the market will drops below support level 48.56, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.61 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 46.75.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

DAILY FORECAST
EURUSD

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.2035, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1953.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1923, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1870 and 1.1821.

 

GBPUSD

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3390, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3295.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3295, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3215.

GOLD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1327 and ressitance level 1333.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1333, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1339 and 1348.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1327, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1314.

US CRUDE OIL

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 48.85 - 49.13, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 48.09.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 48.09, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.40

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, September 25 - 29
Main news of this week:
Wednesday: OIL - inventories
Thursday: US - GDP
Friday: GBP - GDP

 

EURUSD
Euro zone economy still recovering: last week we have rising of Manufacturing PMI from 57.1 to 58.2 and Services PMI from 54.7 to 55.6. Same time dollar can’t show the same picture and Services PMI felt from 55.9 to 55.1. Looking on weekly chart, technically market now is going to get main resistance level 1.2237 and fundamental situation also confirm this, so seems that soon triangle on H4 will be broken up…

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1857 and resistance 1.2028.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2028, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.2237.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1857, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.

 

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3452 and resistance 1.3589.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3589, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3915.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3452, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3135.

 

 

GOLD
Market now is trading on main support level 1288 and while we have falling of dollar, gold have more chance to start from this levels uptrend, then to continue downtrend. Anyway, level 1305 is strong resistance and before its break up, market will be trading sideways between 1288 and 1305.

An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1305, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1346.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1288, which will be followed by reaching support level 1268.

 

CRUDE OIL
Technically now market is going in uptrend to the price 53.95 (weekly chart), but fundamentally we have production restoring and rising of inventories, that very soon should to push price down. And then we have 2 scenarios:
1. Or market will continue very-very fast uptrend to the level 52.87 and then 53.95;
2. Or break up of main resistance 49.70 was temporary and false, after that very-very soon we will have its re-break down with further downtrend to the support 47.05 and 41.40 (weekly chart).

So:
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 52.87, where uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 50.33 – 49.70.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 49.70, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.05.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Daily forecast from September 26: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GOLD, CRUDE OIL

EURUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1837 and resistance 1.1859.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1837 - 1.1821, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1859, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1893 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 1.1947.

 

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3452 - 1.3426 and resistance 1.3495.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3426, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3295.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3495, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3589.

 

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1305 and resistance 1315.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1305, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1290.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1315, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1323 - 1329.

 

US CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 52.87 and this uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 52.03.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 52.03, which will be followed by a move down to support level 51.45 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 50.87.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, October 2 - 6

EURUSD
On previous week EU Core CPI dropped to 1.1 from 1.2, that is bad sign for euro perspective, also remembering words of Draghi about QE reducing, that at present time is looks not real: economy slows down... Same time US shown increasing of GDP from 3.0% to 3.1%, that is optimistic for dollar. Fundamental picture is showing good perspective for dollar rising, but in same time eurusd rebounded up from key support level 1.1712 - 1.1760, from that very possible we can have correction wave to strong resistance 1.1910 and possible higher, to key resistance 1.2037. So looks, that before dollar will start his uptrend, he should fall a little, to unload.

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910. that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1744 - 1.1712.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1744 - 1.1712, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1612.

 

GBPUSD
On previous week GBP GDP is dropped from 1.7% to 1.5%, that is very-very bad sign for pound currency... Same time we can see that technically market already created trend top and on the level 1.3587 we have strong resistance, that will prevent uptrend from any futher rising. So from current level or from 1.3587 we can expecting downtrend to support level 1.3135.

The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.3135, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.3587.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3587, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3915.

 

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1268 and resistance 1290.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1290, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1320.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1268, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.

 

CRUDE OIL
Oil production now on the yearly top, inventories increasing duriang a few weeks (not looking on the last one, where was not a big drop), same time technically market is trading on the key resistance level 52.87 - 53.87. Its possible, that market can try to get the last one, but really market now is looking more for downtrend, than for uptrend, also considering that Brent is already going in strong falling and already re-broke down her main support.

The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 49.70, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 52.10 - 52.87.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 52.87, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 53.87 and possible will try to get 55.21.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13

Main news of this week:
Wednesday: US - FOMC Minutes
Thursday: EU  - Draghi; Oil - Inventories
Friday: US - Core CPI

EURUSD
Previous week was closed on main support 1.1760, so market still have a chance to rebound up to the resistance level 1.1910 (technically). Contribute to this scenario fundamental factor of very weak US "Non-farm payrolls" news, that was published on friday and felt suprisingly low from previous 156K to -33K, that can be a very strong signal for market correction to technical level 1.1910.

By history of this news indicator, we can see, that negative NFP market have once per 7-8 year cycle and after we started to have negative NFP, this crysis period is going over 12-18 month, where last of them was on 2001 and 2008 years. But sometimes its happens when NFP became negative, but if after this one we will have more again - this signal will became very dangerous. But before this apocalyptic scenario we do not have any other economic signals for such possible situation, so looks that negative NFP we had just because US economy is already fully loaded by working places, because unemployment is felt from 4.4% to 4.2%, that is very good sign.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between resistance 1.1760 and support 1.1650 - 1.1610.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1760, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1910.

 

GBPUSD
Market is trading in downtrend, but on main support level 1.3135, from that can have a correction to resistance 1.3236, from that we can expection continuation of downtrend to the next support 1.2932, because pound is still looks weak.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3236, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3494.

 

GOLD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between main support 1268 and resistance 1287.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1287 (or from support 1268), which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1315 - 1320.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1268, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.

 

CRUDE OIL
Oil production is started to increase by much less pace, same time we have one more week reduction of inventories, that can provoce market on correction from support 49.13 to resistance 51.62. On previous week that level was strong resistance, so market had downtrend as technical factor, but looking on inventories reduction, support 49.13 is able to stop this trend scenario. From another way, this downtrend impulse is strong, where support 49.13 is the last one and by her break down market will continue downtrend to 47.05.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 49.13 and resistance 49.87.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 49.13, which will be followed by reaching support level 47.30.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 49.87, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 51.62.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, October 16 - 20
Main news of this week:
Tuesday: GBP and EU - Core CPI
Wednesday: Oil inventories

EURUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910 or 1.2037, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1670.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1670, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.

GBPUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3495, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3215.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3215, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3068 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2874.

GOLD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1346 - 1349, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1290.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1290, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1268.

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 50.73 and resistance 51.60.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 51.60, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 52.87 - 53.87.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 50.73, which will be followed by a move down to support level 49.17 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 47.40.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

EURUSD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.1450, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.1715.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1715, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1820.

 

GBPUSD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.2932 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2718.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3128, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3285.

 

GOLD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1266, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1276, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1304.

 

CRUDE OIL
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 57.40, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 55.00 - 54.00.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 54.00, which will be followed by a move down to support level 51.60.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, November 13 - 17
EURUSD
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.1550 and then 1.1450, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.1715.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1715, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1826 and 1.1910.

 

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3068 and resistance 1.3285. Local downtrend now can get support level 1.3068 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2932.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3285, which will be followed by a move up to strong resistance level 1.3395.

 

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1269 and resistance 1289.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1269, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1258 and to 1241.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1289, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1304.

 

CRUDE OIL
What to expect on this week?
Last market uptrend from $54 to $58 was not fundamental, but force majeure, due to political problems in Saudi Arabia. In general its clear, that this developments will not have any influence on oil production in this country, because military conditions is normal, so market can re-play back this difference in $4 from $58 to $54. CME futures on WTI show that level $58 is key resistance from that market need to start downtrend, after some formation of pattern on the market top and its further break down. By fundamental data we can see, that production is on the historical top and continue its rising, where same time inventories create market bottom and seems that from week to week they will start uptrend. So, not political, not fundamental, oil do now have perspective to be trading above price of $58 - $60 ($60, as key resistance on "spot" market). Same time current price is very good level for further shale mining and we can see that oil rigs continue their increasing, so we need to prepare for soon downtrend to $54 and $50 levels, where $50 for now is fair price for current fundamental conditions.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 56.38 and resistance 57.40.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 57.40, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 60.25.

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, November 20 - 24
EURUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910, that ay be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1756.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1756, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1662.

 

GBPUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3285 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 1.3395.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3177, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3115 - 1.3068.

 

GOLD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1304.30, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1285.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1285, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1275 and 1269.

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 55 and resistance 57.40, where local downtrend will start from resistance 56.86 - 57.40 to support level 55.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 57.40, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 60.25.

 

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, November 27 - December 01
EURUSD
Market is trading on the key resistance level 1.1910, that was almost broken up during Thursday - Friday US holidays. Here is no clear driver for further uptrend and seems that soon market will start correction with further downtrend, but market still can get next key resistance on the level 1.2024. We need waiting for Wednesday US GDP and Thursday EU Core CPI news to get more market driver in any of ways.

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.2024, but uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1950.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1844, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1643 - 1.1607.

 

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3282 and key resistance 1.3395.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.3395, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.3587.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3282, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3188 and 1.3068.

 

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1286 and resistance 1293.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1293, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1304.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1286, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1276.

 

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 60.25.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 56.86, which will be followed by a move down to support level 54.00.

 

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Here is my new type of forecasts, with youtube.
Enjoy! Eny comments are wellcome!

WEEKLY FORECAST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzQsjjMH_0s

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Monday forecast and trade ideas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrELTukWETw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrELTukWETw

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

todays forecast and trade ideas

Todays forecast and trade ideas

 

[MEDIA=youtube]QBprgHUXgGE[/MEDIA]

Todays forecast and trade ideas

 

[MEDIA=youtube]QBprgHUXgGE[/MEDIA]

Todays forecast and trade ideas

 

[MEDIA=youtube]QBprgHUXgGE[/MEDIA]

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Wednesday forecast

 

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Thursday forecast and trade ideas

 

[Guest Anton Kolhanov]

Friday forecast and trade ideas