official Daily Technical Analysis By FxGrow.com

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Sharpens Ahead of Local Data

U.S Dollar lost the tight grip and all rivals are taking advantage of pale greenback with 99.53 low today and U.S index on the path of further losses. USD/JPY currently bearish and the pair added extra consecutive bearish session to 5 initial with 112.26 low, and with current situation of US Dollar, the pair might dip lower.

BOJ board member Iwata crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a speech in parliament.

Key Headlines:

"JPY Could Weaken Vs USD Based On Interest Rate Differentials"

"Stresses Rate Differentials Are Not Only Factor In Determining FX Levels"

"Difficult to narrow output gap weak yen"

Iwata confirmed that interest rates are not the only factor for Yen bullish gains taking into consideration the collapsing U.S Dollar.  

Fundamentals:

1- JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes today at 11:50 PM GMT.

2- JPY Japanese Trade Balance today at 11:50 PM GMT.

3- JPY All Industries Activity m/m tomorrow 4:30 AM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels : R1 113.08, R2 113.96, R3 114.92

Support levels : S1 112.04, S2 111.45, S3 110.66

Remark : With U.S data empty pocket today and tomorrow, and taking current situation of weak US Dollar, the is set for additional losses. Keep an eye on US Index levels correlated with Yellen speech on Thursday. A penetration for R2 and closing above it is a signal for trend reversal. Be careful for setbacks on support and resistance levels as a first test.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Oil levels Declines Over Concerns Of Bloated U.S Storage, Awaiting U.S Inventories

Fundamentals :

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday at 47.80 low  as rising crude stocks in the United States underscored an ongoing global fuel supply overhang despite an OPEC-led effort to cut output. U.S. crude oil inventories surged by 4.5 million barrels in the week to March 17 to 533.6 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said late on Tuesday.

"The American Petroleum Institutes' crude inventories stuck the knife into crude overnight, coming in at a 4.5 million barrel increase against an expected increase of 2.8 million barrels," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

"If the API stuck the knife in, tonight's EIA Crude Inventory figures may twist it. A blowout above the 2.1 million barrel increase expected, may well torpedo oil below the waterline," he added.

New production projects and a fresh shale boom could boost oil output by a million barrels per year and result in an oversupply in the next couple of years, according to Goldman Sachs.

OPEC's landmark decision to limit output for the first time in eight years in a bid to arrest the existing supply glut reduced price volatility and increased stability, unintentionally helping the shale producers, the bank said.

"OPEC's decision in November 2016 to cut production was rational, in our view, and fit into its role of inventory manager of last resort," Goldman said.

"However, the unintended consequence was to underwrite shale activity through a bullish credit market at a time when delayed delivery of the 2011-13 capex boom could lead to record non-OPEC production growth in 2018."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to curb its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 this year. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 bpd.  

Sources within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have indicated that its members increasingly favor extended production cuts but want the backing of non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia, which have yet to deliver fully on existing reductions. ( CNBC )  

PEC compliance in Feb 2017 was estimated over 94% which helped oil boosters to sustain levels above $52 bp on average but the war continues between the US and OPEC counties with opposed interests.

Russia has reduced oil production through first 2017 quarter by 200000 bpd and promised to increase further reductions to 300000 bdp by end of April or May with OPEC plan being in accord. According to sources to CNBC, OPEC is on the edge of striking a powerful strike where the cartel is considering extending initial Vienna deal till end of 2017 if OPEC and Non-OPEC counties agree to further oil reduction to curb market demand, but details about quotas were not specified. Markets, although OPEC next move is currently cooked in a low steam, are looking forward for such deal in which, in case established or achieved, should energize oil bullish levels back to Feb 2017 prices.

Conclusion : Currently US has the upper with increase shale drilling and inventories storage. The rift continues and the war tone is ascending between U.S and OPEC, each trying to drive oil levels higher and lower depending on their economic interests. Keep an eye on OPEC next chess move which will set oil course for the coming weeks. Look forward for U.S crude inventories today set for a release at 2:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview

The market currently bearish due to the above mentioned data, but OPEC keep an eye on OPEC coming moves. If OPEC managed to struck the deal with extension till end of 2017, crude levels will sustain the $50>$52 levels. In absence of news from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, markets should expect further declines with $47<$46 as targets.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 22nd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Kiwi Trades flat Ahead of RBNZ's Wheeler Speech

NZD/USD rallied yesterday to 0.7089 high following positive Global Diary Trade (GDT) with 1.7% compared to -6.3% on previous session. Kiwi boosters found comfort with collapsing U.S Index yesterday with 99.44 low. Today, the pair has managed to recover few pips from session low and is currently trading around 0.7032 handle. A fresh wave of global risk aversion, coupled with a modest US Dollar recovery from multi-week lows, has been key factors weighing on the major on Wednesday.

Eyes now are focused on RBNZ interest rate decision with high forecasts that rates to be left at current 1.75%. However, since rates are a done deal, the market will be looking for any hawkish signasl they can find from Gov Wheeler. This central bank is notorious for talking their currency down and Gov Wheeler may take this opportunity to drive the currency lower. However, if he sounds more upbeat or offers any hawkish hints there may be an opportunity to buy the kiwi.

 
Fundamentals:

1- NZD Interest Rate Decision today at 8:00 PM GMT.

2- NZD RBNZ Wheeler speech today at 8:00 PM GMT.

3- USD Unemployment Claims tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

4- USD speech tomorrow at 12:45 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

 Resistance levels : R1 0.7072, R2 0.7129, R3 0.7132

Support levels : S1 0.7016, S2 0.6971 , S3 0.6914

Remark : Look forward for Kiwi local data today. U.S data tomorrow not to be missed especially Yellen speech which will determine U.S index levels for the coming days.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Seeks Further Gains Over Crisp U.S Dollar, Eyes on Yellen

Gold has prolonged bullish trading session with a 1251.34 high yesterday and currently, XAUUSD is confined 47-pips range price action, slightly above 50-SMA (H1). Overall, gold added +$53.89 since March Fed hike. USD collapsed dramatically on Tuesday and extended losses yesterday at 99.32 low, digging deeper for 2017-new-lows at 99.19, which supported gold bullish momentum.

History and logic suggest that when the United States starts a monetary tightening cycle, gold will under-perform, since as a non-yielding asset it loses out to instruments that will enjoy higher yields from the rising rates.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), China's gold demand has dropped this year, with third quarter consumer demand at 182.5 tons, down 22% from the same period in 2015, while India's 194.8 tons is 28% lower. Analysts are expecting China's and India's gold demand to remain steady in 2017.. China and India are the world's biggest gold-consuming nations.  

Today, U.S economic data is heavy first with Unemployment claims which in case positive, should re-balance U.S index levels with upward correction, but the main focus is on Yellen speech and traders will try to decipher words and signals out of her speech.

Fundamentals:

1- USD unemployment rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD Yellen speech today at 12:45 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp  1247

Resistance levels : R1 1252.20, R2 1264.87, R3 1280.76

Support levels : S1 1242.33, S2 1230.62, S3 1218.83

Remark : Overall gold is bullish but U.S data today is vital especially Yellen speech in relation with low USD levels. Stalling above R1 level is a Déjà vu of last 2 weeks rallies with R2 level as target. Closing above R2 projects further bullish attacks at R3 level.  A stall around 1251 could prompt setbacks, but trade should hold within Tuesday's range to maintain strong bull forces. Closing below S2 alerts for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. U.S index is the main player.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Wallowing U.S Index and Supper Yellen with Possible Scenarios

Since FOMC epic decision with 0.25% hike to initial 0.75%, U.S Index has collapsed dramatically. After peeking to $102.26 Feb-highs, the Index has shed -$2.94 and anchored yesterday at $99.32, closing to 2017 lowest at $99.19. Below are the factors contributing to bearish U.S Index Foreces.

1- Markers had already priced in and traded on the fact that Fed hike was inevitable. So basically, the FOMC decision had zero contribution to the market "Buy the rumor sell the fact " fitted like the last peace of puzzle and the USD decline picture was drawn.

2- Traders were awaiting further instructions by Yellen and Co. about coming Fed hikes, but details were not listed.

3- Doubts about Trump's capacity to provide the right leadership for Republican party have been creeping into the market fueled by allegations about links of his election campaign with relation to Russian contributes and recent Trump's real estate bought by Russians as Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital pointed yesterday. Also Trump's bombastic style including wild claims about wire taps for the white house when he addressed journalists in previous appearances.  

Fact : Combine these above elements, no wonder why U.S Index has tumbled and in case of further declines, it's logic.

Now after we have briefed the above, the real question is, How will Yellen play along today when she appears preceded  by U.S Unemployment Claims. If Yellen came out with promises about coming hikes, markets will start pricing in and trading on her words and the whole cycle ( U.S Index ) will be repeated again as Déjà vu. Recent speeches of FOMC's members Dudley and Evans with their declrelations supports the coming scenario further more. So, Yellen will try to avoid this scenario and turn into different aspect in which she will focus on how strong the U.S economy is supported by positive unemployment data, inflation rate, recent CPI, NFP, and retails sales which should boost U.S Index to a 100.46 where trend will make a reverse and turn bullish.

Remark: Previous unemployment claims were 240K and forecasts for today are 241, narrowing down the gaps between the number, skepticism or confusion about comparison between recent, initial, and forecasts will be tight. Traders always tend to read the data in different way when recent is more than forecasts but less then previous, along with it, bearish and bullish volatility.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Guarding Tuesday's Gains Ahead of Local Data

EUR/USD inaugurated Friday's trading sessions with aggressive selling and lost -26-pips after clocking a high 1.0786. The pair peeked to 1.0819 on Monday and prolonged additional 5-pips on Tuesday over arousing political optimism driven by Netherlands recent elections and French polls claiming Macron ahead of Le Pen ( Anti EU). However, the political optimism was jinxed by stingy reviving U.S Index today with a 99.79 high today.

Yesterday, U.S unemployment claims were negative with 258K compared to 241K on previous sessions but markets were focused on Yellen speech, and as always, Yellen will always be Yellen with her vague hints. Markets were expecting a support for U.S Index justified by Yellen timing and collapsing U.S Index, but the lady didn't even comment on monetary policy. Eyes today are shifted towards Trump health care program which should boost U.S Dollar up or down, depending on the final outcome.

Today, EU economic pocket is heavy from French and Germany, services and manufacturing PMI, which will give an estimate on how the EU economy is heading and it's health.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - French Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:00 AM GMT.

2- -EUR - German Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - EU Flash Manufacturing and services PMI  today at 9:00 AM GMT.

4- USD - Core Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 PM GMT.  

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.0790, R2 1.0822, R3 1.0843, R4 1.0866

Support levels : S1 1.0744, S2 1.0705, S3 1.0662, S4 1.0635

Remark :Currently the pair is still considered bullish due to weaker U.S Dollar with sideways options due to the ebb and flow between EUR and USD. The above variety of economic news will decide how cable trend will settle in the coming hours. Keep an eyes on U.S index with coloration of U.S data and Trump health care voting today.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/CAD Remains Bullish Despite Bearish U.S Dollar

Although U.S Dollar is toothless for the past 12 consecutive sessions with  99.32 weekly-fresh-lows, USD/CAD remained bullish today and confined with 31-pips price action. Unlike USD rivals, the Loonie failed to take advantage of weaker U.S Dollar, tailed by collapsing crude oil levels for the past 2 weeks. The pair clocked 1.3377 high and currently shifting sail course and reversing daily bullish candle to inverse hammer candle supported by rising crude oil levels. The pair is currently trading 1.3354, slightly above its daily Pp 1.3341.

Loonie economic data is colorful today, but the main focus will be on Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), taking into consideration that inflation currently has reached 2.13%. Today's data could be an indicator for the coming BOC meeting for interest rates.  

Fundamentals:

1- CAD - CPI today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- CAD - CPI common, CPI median, and CPI trimmed y/y today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - Core Durable goods today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.3408, R2 1.3463, R3 1.3535

Support levels : S1 1.3315, S2 1.3247, S3 1.3174

Remark : Keep an eyes on U.S Index levels as its a measurement for USD/CAD performance. Also, Canadian today is vital on the short and long run.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Gaps Upward and U.S Index Downward, Eyes on German Ifo

EUR/USD inaugurated Monday trading session with a +23-pips upward and added additional gains +23-pips with 1.0849 high supported by Friday's positive Data and overwhelming political optimism . On the other hand, U.S index prolonged the bearish momentum for the second week in a row, and today the Index gaped downward with -$.042, and bottomed  at 99.06 11-Nov-2016 fresh lows.

On Friday, markets were awaiting for the white smoke coming from of Trump's oval office with a positive vote to replace Obamacare health program, but unfortunately, a darker smoke was instead which added more negative weight and pressured U.S Dollar facing its classic rival EURO. Currently the pair is trading 1.0849, with one pip difference to re-reach today's high indicating additional bullish waves for the cable as a reminder of 2016 glorious levels for EUR/USD. In addition to that, Firday's heathcare decision consecqunces are still to impact USD.

Analysts at ANZ explained that the failure of Donald Trump’s replacement healthcare bill to make it through congress will be viewed by the market as a major setback for the ‘Trump trade’ (although market moves late on Friday were a little surprising).  

Fundamentals :

1- EUR- German Ifo Business climate today at 9:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR- M3 Money Supply y/y today at 9:00 AM GMT.

3- EUR - Private Loans y/y today at 9:00 GMT.

4- USD - FOMC member Evans speech at 6:15 AM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish

Resistance levels :  R1 1.0873, R2 1.0908, R3 1.0949.

Support levels : S1 1.0819, S2 1.0759, S3 1.0673

Remark : Taking the current situation of collapsing, the market posture is bullish and signals for a larger emerging upswing, hinting for a trending drive towards R2 level. Stable action over 1.800+ will encourage follow through rallies. A full retraction of Tuesday's range is needed to flip trade to a correction page, but only a close below S3 level is needed for trend reversal and the market to consider the cable bearish. EU data not be missed today, in addition to that, FOMC member Evans speech today where markets should look for hawkish tilts which might lift or save U.S Index from further declines.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Holds a Ruthless Grip Over Softer US Dollar

Japanese Yen launched Asian trading sessions with a sharp strong tone facing pale greenback supported by positive summary by BOJ and Services Producer Price Index SPPI 0.8% compared to 0.5% on previous sessions. The pair penetrated the taboo support level (110.60) aggressively with 110.25 22-Nov-2016-fresh lows, from which bull forces rallied at 103.71 7-Nov-2016 low. Overall, USD/JPY has shed -79-pips as price action, trading below 200 SMA (111.17 D1), and it is expected to drift downward further more given the current circumstances.

BOJ Summary was as follows :

1- Japan's economy has continued its moderate recovery trend and Private consumption has been resilient against the background of steady improvement in the employment and .

2- Exports and production have remained firm on the back of a global pick-up in manufacturing, mainly supported by IT-related goods.

3- Japan's economy is likely to continue to recover in line with the path we expect, backed by synergy effects of the government's large-scale stimulus package and the Bank's monetary easing measures, with improvements in overseas economies.

4- Japan's economy is projected to continue to see moderate recovery toward fiscal 2018 unless downside risks stemming from developments in overseas economies materialize, such as a rise of protectionism, political and economic instability in Europe, and an increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Asia.  

On the other hand, US Dollar was bearish for the second consecutive week with a clear signal for additional bearish forces as the Index gaped downward -$0.42 and dug deeper at 99.06, 2017-new-lows. Trump's health care voted with an annulment on Friday showed Republicans weak trying to replace ex-Democratic Obamacare health program, which added additional question mark around Trump's capacity to lead the free world nation (USA), and consequences are expected to dilate further more as U.S Wallstreet opens.

Fundamentals :

1- USD - FOMC Member Evans speech today at 6:15 PM GMT.

2- USD - CB Consumer Confidence tomorrow at 3:00 PM GMT.

3- USD FOMC Member Kaplan speech tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels : R1 111.33, R2 112.38, R3 113.33

Support levels : S1 110.25, S2 109.33, S3 108.20

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Remark : Current situation of low U.S Index and positive Japanese Data signals for further dips for USD/JPY. Negative decision on Trump's healthcare program will still tail for the coming trading hours and market should expect further declines for US Dollar.Also, FOMC members appearance this week is heavy, traders should watch for hawkish hints regarding coming U.S Fed hikes with efforts to rescue U.S Index.

A penetration for S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. A close below S2 level projects additional bear forces for the cable but be careful from setback as a test on support levels.  Keep in mind that below S3 level is a threat for USD/JPY Nov-2016 rallies. A close above R2 level is an alert for trend reversal and above R3, bullish trend will re-confirmed once again.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 28th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Clocks Two Months High Ahead of Article 50 Release

Sterling was the talk of the market yesterday with a 1.2615 high and extended the bearish momentum for the 10th consecutive sessions. Although the pair lost -47-pips as price action since yesterday, the pair successfully sustained the 1.25 handle and currently trading 1.2568 intraday. Overall, GBP/USD rallied 471-pis since the U.S Fed hike, till yesterday high, and the pair is preparing for additional bullish waves due to soaring U.S Index yesterday with 98.65 2017-fresh-lows.

On the other hand, UK demands a final departure politically and financially from the EU. Political is by PM May releasing article 50 on the 29th of March which will set a new course for UK, but before that, PM May met with Scottish PM Nicola Sturgeon. Sturgeon has called for a second Scotland independence referendum, against May's will, but the terror attack from last week has interrupted the tense relations between them both. After officially lunching the Brexit, the UK will have two years to negotiate new arrangements, after which it will no longer be subject to EU treaties.

On the Financial level, The EU has to make up a budget gap once the Brexit becomes official. Britain's exit from the European Union indicates that one of the bloc's biggest economies will stop making donations to its budget. This arouses questions as to how long the U.K. will proceed to pay its share of the budget and how can the EU fill the blacnk once Britain has officially left. The U.K. has already said it will not pay a 60 billion euro ($64.73 billion) bill to departure the bloc – money that according to the EU would be used for the U.K.'s share of commitments to the pensions of its workers and U.K.-based projects that have already received funding approval. At the same time, some member states have already told Brussels that the UK are not willing to pay more into the EU budget to compensate for the U.K.'s divorce. (CNBC)

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Goods Trade Balance today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- USD- CB Consumer Confidence today at 3:00 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2598, R2 1.2640, R3 1.2682

Support levels : S1 1.2531, S2 1.2462, S3 1.2392

Remark : Given the current situation of pale greenback trading 98.96, and GBP/USD significant rallies Sterling has the upper hand which supports the pair's bullish forces. Closing above R1 restores confidence for Sterling and the pair has the tendency to climb to R2 level. On the other hand, stalling below S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level signaling a beginning for trend reversal. Closing below S2 is a confirmation that bearish forces has taken control and market to consider GBP/USD bearish with a reminder that the pair collapses intensively on psychological level. Political issues such as article 50 and Scottish referendum are vital for Sterling levels on the fundamental level.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 29th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Digests Monday's Gains Ahead of Article 50 Release

Sterling lost the sharp tone yesterday and went to a softer one today as UK gears up for the historic release for Article 50. GBP/USD bled -239-pips since Monday and plunged to 1.2376 low today over fears of consequences of what might outcome as PM releases the article. Traders has abandoned buying positions of GBP/USD high levels and left the pair to cast at lower levels with aggressive selling. On the other hand, U.S Index is showing a minor recovery today, with +$0.71 increase following positive U.S Consumer Confidence release yesterday with a positive 125.5 compared to 116.1 on previous sessions.

PM May has already signed the Article 50 letter, which will be delivered by Tim Barrow today at 11:30 GMT. Thereafter, the European Council (EC) President Donald Tusk will hold a press conference at 13:45 GMT on the UK Article 50 notification. The UK PM May finally invoking the Article 50 means the process of the Britain to exit EU’s membership commences, after the referendum vote held in June  last year showed Brits favoring a Brexit by 51.9% to 48.1%.

Once the Article 50 is triggered later today, the terms of Britain's exit will have to be agreed by 27 national parliaments, a process which could take some years. Some EU leaders believe, it could take as long as 5 years to agree to new trading and immigration policies with the remaining countries In the meantime, the UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws.”

Once the Article 50 is released, the terms of Britain's exit will have to be approved by 27 national parliaments, a process which could take some years. Some EU leaders believe, it could take as long as 5 years to agree to new trading and immigration policies with the remaining countries In the meantime, the UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws.”
 

Timeline post-Article 50 trigger (via the Sun)

MARCH 31: Donald Tusk will give the EU’s remaining 27 member states’ initial response to Mrs May.

APRIL 29: Emergency summit of the 27 EU leaders to agree on the mandate for their lead negotiator Michel Barnier to conduct exit talks.

MAY 7: French presidential elections final run-off. Many believe serious talks cannot begin until we know who the next French president is.

MID MAY: Michel Barnier draws up EU’s negotiating guidelines based on the mandate given to him. The EU’s council of foreign ministers meets to sign them off.

LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE: Face-to-face Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU begin.

SEPT 24: German elections, to decide if Angela Merkel continues as Chancellor or is ousted. Difficult for much to be agreed on Brexit until then.

OCTOBER 2018: Both sides want to conclude negotiations six months before Britain leaves the EU to give the Houses of Commons and Lords, as well as the European Parliament and other national assemblies, time to ratify the final Brexit deal.

We could see a ‘soft’ Brexit landing if the UK agrees to compromise on issues like the free movement of people in order to maintain access to the EU single market. Contrarily, a ‘hard’ Brexit would be inevitable, in case the UK fails to reach a deal for the single market access with the EU.

Remark: Due to uncertainties evolving currently around UK with correlation of Article 50, and U.S Index sudden recovery, market to expect high volatility for GBP/USD. A break above 1.2464 projects additional bullish waves towards Monday's range at 1.2535 & 1.2605. The opposite scenario, A penetration for 1.2337 will increase further selloffs and wash towards 1.2241 & 1.2112 intensively. UK economic data today could be ignored due to Article 50 topic being the main frame for Sterling.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 29th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Oil Bullish Forces In Action Over OPEC Deal Extension, Eyes on U.S Inventories

The long waited deal between OPEC and Non-OPEC counties has finally saw the light as we mentioned in the last article we posted. Yesterday, oil levels surged +$0.94, with a high 48.73, highest levels for this week and today, crude extended bullish candles with 48.57 with expectations to surpass Wednesday's highs. Crude levels were confined with $1.65 price action with six consolidation consecutive sessions indicating low volatility as markets were anticipating hints from either U.S increased shale drilling or from OPEC striking a newer deal, other than Vienna.  

API data showed U.S. crude supplies up 1.9 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a rise of 1.9 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended March 24, according to sources. The API data also showed a decline of 1.1 million barrels in gasoline supplies and a fall of 2.0 million barrels in distillates, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast an increase of 300,000 barrels in crude inventories.

Between the U.S and OPEC, another fundamental catalyst logged the field, (Libya) an armed protesters blocked Sharara and Wafa oil western fields,  reducing output by 252,000 barrels per day (bpd), a source at the National Oil Corporation (NOC) told Reuters late on Tuesday.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia and Iran have pledged to continue efforts to rein in oil production and stabilize markets, the presidents of both countries said in a joint statement on Tuesday.  "Russia and Iran will continue cooperation in this sphere (in oil output cuts) in order to stabilize the global energy market and ensure stable economic growth," the statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani said.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, U.S. oil production growth between September and December was almost entirely the result of offshore wells, which increased production by 220,000 barrels a day in that period. Offshore projects are much more long-term investments. They are far more costly to develop and take years to get started. "Those projects have an inertia," said John Kilduff of Again Capital. Total U.S. oil production peaked at 9.6 million barrels a day in 2015 and fell to 8.56 million by September, according to Energy Information Administration data. Since then, U.S. production has jumped back, reaching 9.1 million barrels a day this month, according to the latest EIA weekly data. (CNBC).

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with some other producers including Russia, have agreed to cut production by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year in order to rein in a global fuel supply overhang and prop up prices. But as markets remain bloated halfway into the cuts, there is a broad expectation that the supply cuts will be extended into the second half of the year. Despite the rising consensus of extended cuts, the OPEC-led strategy to re-balance oil markets is not without controversy. As OPEC and especially Saudi Arabia cut their production, other producers not participating in the cuts have been quick to fill the supply gap and gain market share. (Reuters).

In the United States in particular, shale oil drillers have seized the opportunity to ramp up output and exports. As a result, China became the third biggest overseas destination for U.S. crude oil in 2016, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), up from ninth position the previous year.

"In 2016, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 520,000 bpd, 12 percent above the 2015 level, despite a year-over-year decline in domestic crude oil production," the EIA said.

Conclusion: Currently, the U.S has the upper hand controlling oil bearish levels, but given the above fundamentals between Libyan oil field issues and OPEC and Non-OPEC deal waving on horizon, crude levels could steady back to $50>$52 pb, that's if and only if. Otherwise, crude levels will sustain the $47>$49 pb.

Remark : Look forward for U.S Crude inventories set to be released today at 3:30 PM GMT and forecasts are 1.2M compared to 5.2M on previous sessions. The above fundamentals are the key player and markets should pay attention about what's coming next, either from OPEC or perhaps another new fundamental other than Libyan protesters, which could tackle oil prices upward or downward.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 30th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Bullish Forces Decelerate By Awakening U.S Dollar, Awaiting Further Data

Gold has entered the 6th bullish consolidation session and has been jailed with 200-pips price action. The yellow metal plunged to 1248.30 low today after a long struggle with 1250 handle, and yesterday, XAUUSD couldn't overcome the 1255 hitch which still supports the bullish trend. On Tuesday, gold peeked to 1258.47 high, keeping a tight range between Monday's 1261.10 high, as U.S index sank to 98.65 2017 low, and markets expected gold to jet ride for higher levels giving the circumstances.

Gold bullish forces were tackled by positive U.S CB consumer confidence which sparked USD bearish levels and U.S index showed a minor recovery today with 99,89 high, postponing gold sky trip for another session as U.S releases today unemployment claims, but the main focus will be on the GDP as analysts tend to relate it directly to U.S fed policy and their in take. U.S GDP today will set the tone for next FOMC members speech with the possibility of hawkish or dovish tone regarding next interest hikes, and traders has to take U.S data today as articular as well gold levels will.

Note: Keep in mind that releasing Article 50 with the French coming election could provoke uncertainties around EU, and gold prices could rally as traders tend to turn to XAUUSD as a sacred haven metal instead of currencies.  

Fundamentals:

USD - Unemployment Claims today at 1:30 PM GMT.

USD - Final GDP q/q today 1:30 at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1263.71, R2 1275.94, R3 1284.24

Support levels : S1 1244.48, S2 1236.62, S3 1225.25

Remark:  The market remains bullish and calls for additional attacks towards R1 although U.S index has showed vital signs. A break above R1 which is considered articular which projects intensive bullish waves towards R3 level due to previous retracements and setbacks from R1. Staying within Monday's range keeps bullish forces in action as well as the trend. A penetration for S2 levels, signals a beginning for bearish trend and closing below S3, market to consider gold downward. U.S economic data not to be missed today in corelation with U.S Index levels which impacts gold levels directly.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 30th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Copper Technical Overview

Trend : Sideways Up

Daily Pp : 266.6

Resistance levels : R1 : 269.30 , R2 270.51 , R3 273

Support levels: S1 264.45 , S2 260.90 , S3 258.60
 
Comment: The rebounds this week are triggering short term reversal, signaling for rallies to 273. Trade is poised to extend rallies today. Any corrective dips that show a sideways day will provide a staging level for rallies. The trend reversal point is 260.91, and a close below is needed to reverse back to negative trade.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 31st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Silver Retreats Temporary As US Index Inches higher

Although silver suffered -15-pips loss yesterday over mix US Data with positive GDP 2.1% being in main focus, XAGUSD sustained the bullish trend despite recovering U.S Index peeking to 100.46 high, 9-pips below 50 SMA D1, after two weeks dwelling below 99. Negative unemployment claims with 3K narrow difference on 261K previous sessions, analysts took it as neutral despite the overall outcome. But what really energized U.S index was the GDP, paving the scenario content for next FOMC meeting next Wednesday, and market took it as a sign of possible hawkish tone where FOMC releases the statement. Markets started placing bets against odds of U.S Fed meeting, and the process of pricing the market is already in action. Currently, silver trades 18.09 after tumbling to 18.04 early this morning.

U.S Index is confined with 17-pips price action and its expected to keep that thin due to further U.S Data coming today with PCE and Personal spending in the main frame with, and the result could tackle the tone of FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari. GDP, PCE, Personal Spending, CPI, and inflation are the basis that central banks focus on whenever there is an interest rate decision.

Finally, metals drop on strong US GDP data which increases bets on Fed rate hike decision. FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari will talk today and will give clues on future monetary policy.

Note: Kashkari was the only FOMC member who waved a red card in last the U.S Fed meeting where 0.25% took action.
 

Fundamentals:

1- USD -  Core PCE Price Index m/m today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Personal Spending m/m today at 1:30 PM GMT.

3- USD- FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari speeches today.
 

Technical:

Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 18.04, R2 18.30, R3 18.55

Support levels : S1 18.04, S2 17.83, S3 17.55.

Remark : Silver still to be considered bullish although XAGUSD trading near sensitive support levels that could provoke bearish forces. Staying within 29th price actions support silver bullish forces and a break above R2 alerts for larger bullish wave towards S3 level. A break below S2 level alerts for a beginning of a trend reversal, and below S3, market to consider silver bearish.  

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Aussie Slips on Negative Data Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Australian Dollar opened Asian trading session with negative Retails Sales -0.1% compared to 0.4$ on previous sessions and plunged 49-pips at 0.7591 low. On the other hand, U.S Index shifted the downtrend and instead, a significant recovery +$1.84 since last week and the Index clocked 100.49 today, ahead of local ISM Manufacturing PMI which will either confirm the bullish trend, or the Index will hit a bump. Currently AUD/USD 0.7604, with efforts to withhold the 0.78 level as USD pressures the Aussie.

AUD/USD is trading thin today with 49-pips as price action, and it's expected to extend narrow ahead of Australian Trade Balance, followed by RBA's interest decision tomorrow early. Although forecasts highly bet that RBA wont wave the changing card and to leave it at current 1.5%, which leaves traders  more anticipated on what will Lowe has to say on behalf of RBA preceded by local Trade balance. Analysts will try to decipher words out of Lowe with hawkish or dovish tone regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy supported by the result of trade balance.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI today at 2:00 PM GMT.

2- AUD - Trade Balance tomorrow at 1:30 AM GMT.

3- AUD - RBA Interest Rate Decision tomorrow at 4:30 AM GMT.

4- AUD- Lowe, Gov of RBA speech tomorrow at 9:15 AM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 0.7641, R2 0.7674, R3 0.7719, 0.7764

Support levels : S1  0.7582, S2 0.7540, S3 0.7496, S4 0.7458

Remark :  Market to consider AUD/USD bullish despite early losses due to U.S Dollar bullish trend. Trade is poised with expectations of low action as market awaits vital Australian economic news tomorrow, market should kick with high volatility on Australian Trade balance and Lowe speech. A break S1 level signals a beginning of trend reversal and only a close below S2, market to consider the pair bearish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Bumps with Negative Manufacturing PMI, Awaiting Furhter Data

GBP/USD extended the bearish momentum trading session today with 1.2420 low, and the pair is witnessing aggressive selling following negative UK Manufacturing PMI yesterday at 54.2, less by 0.3 on previous sessions. The pair lost -146-pips since yesterday and couldn't take advantage of dipping U.S Index at 100.28 low on earlier sessions today. Skepticism still evolves around UK's economic outlook, and negative local data added a darker aura as traders still have their deep doubts on how will Sterling perform after a departure from EU. GBP/USD levels awaits today additional test as UK releases Construction PMI, and in case of a negative score, doubts will creep deeper and markets could witness an abandon-ship for the pair and intensive selling and vise versa. GBP/USD currently trades 1.2444 intraday.
 

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - Construction PMI today at 7:30 AM GMT.

2- USD - FOMC meeting tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.
 
Technical overview:

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2500, R2 1.2560, R3 1.2638

Support levels : S1 1.2399, S2 1.2324, S3 1.2241

Remark : Look forward for UK local data today which will decide the pair trend for coming hours. U.S Index levels are to be watched carefully especially tomorrow during FOMC meeting. A penetration for S1 level is a further confirmation for the bearish momentum and wash towards S2 level. A close above R1 level will re-establish bullish forces and the pair will shift upward.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

June U.S Dollar Index Technical Overview

U.S Dollar Index Technical Overview

Trend : Sideways/Up
 

Resistance level: R1 100.57, R2 100.89, R3 101.31
 

Support levels : S1 99.90, S2 99.38, S3 99.05
 

Comment : The market is triggering a short term upturn and projects a climb to 101.31. Trade is poised for rallies, although be prepared for near term dips and basing action just under 100 to set up for rallies. A close under 99.38 is needed to rekindle bear trend forces.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Copper Technical Overview

Copper Technical Overview

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 261.70

Resistance levels : R1 262.33, R2 264.06, R3 267.32

Support levels : S1 259.02, S2 256.66, S3 253.80

Comment : Yesterday's break marks a short-term reversing turnover and calls for selloffs to press for a breakout under recent congestion swing lows. A close below 258.80 signals for a selling wave 251.60. Trade may again bounce and continue choppy sideways congestion of recent weeks. A close over 267.32 is needed to flip the trend bias back up.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Extended Further losses Despite Recovering U.S Dollar

Unlike U.S Dollar soaring rivals, Japanese Yen managed to hold strong positions facing Sharp U.S Dollar tone, and USD/JPY rolled -59-pips today, adding -66-pips loss since Monday. The pair plunged to 110.33 earlier, and when uncertainties aroused by markets and economies, Japanese Yen is often a substitute as sacred haven. The pair bearish forces were supported by BOJ's Tankan report signifying a large manufacturer DI improvement less than expected - Nomura.

Namura report also added “Results not inconsistent with an export-driven economic recovery"
Fundamentals:

1- USD - FOMC meeting tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

2- USD - Non-Farm (NFP) on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

Remark : This weekly economic data is light with Japanese Yen, on the other hand, heavy loaded for U.S economy with FOMC meeting in focus, after that NFP on Friday. Look for hints from U.S Fed regarding how many hikes are left and when. As for NFP this Friday, the result will determine USD/JPY trend for the coming days.

Technical overview:

Trend: Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 111.20, R2 111.74, R3 112.79

Support levels: S1 110.20, S2 109.66, S3 109.13

Comment: Current bullish trend of U.S index keeps USD/JPY under pressure despite this week losses. A break below S1 alerts for a bullish shifting forces and only a close below S2, the market will confirm the pair bearish trend. Market will retest last week's strong S1 level and dips should fight to stay above it. A penetration for R1 level will result in buying congestion with respect to strong U.S Dollar with fast upward correction towards R2 level.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.