Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Talks on Iran Are Close to Completion

On Monday, oil prices on the world market are falling in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the pressure on the "black gold" has the fact that Iran and six world powers have almost come to an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. If negotiations completes in a favor of Tehran, it will cause sanctions lifting, and after it Iran will make every effort to restore its position in the oil market.

Amid this August futures for Brent have declined during morning trading by $ 1.89 to $ 56.84 per barrel, then went back to $ 57.70 a barrel and soon resumed decline. WTI has dropped by 90 cents to $ 51.84 a barrel.

The agreement on Iran may be concluded today. This event, in addition to the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which we have seen in recent months, support traders disturbance about oversupply in the oil market.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

The order to sell from 1157.97 has activated on the fractal down level breakthrough. There are no additional signals to add yet. We continue to hold the short position and closely monitor changing market conditions.

Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The order to buy from 122.87 has activated. There are no additional signals to add yet. Recall that a current upward momentum brings into question the past few weeks downward trend.

Volatility: 61%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

We have fixed a small loss on the long position from 1.1127 at 1.1067, and we go into a wait state. According to System rules, we put pending breakthrough orders on the nearest fractal levels. Thus, we will start to buy at 1.1214 and sale at 1.0989.

Volatility: 75%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We have entered the market to buy from 1.5551. There was no significant changes since that, but we should not forget that tomorrow are expected the important data on inflation in the United Kingdom.

Volatility: 34%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

[saharmohamedali]

thanks alot for post

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Market Pulse 07/14

Tuesday is full of important publications, among which are the data on inflation and a speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the UK, retail sales data in the United States and indexes from the German ZEW institute. Euro zone finance ministers will meet today.

8:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Core CPI - June (UK)
8:30 ** Retail Price Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output - June (UK)
8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - June (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Important statistics may significantly affect the British pound in particular, the data on the consumer price index, which is one of the benchmarks for the Bank of England, which is expected to hint at monetary policy tightening in the future. It is expected that inflation in June has risen by 0.1%.

9:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (Germany)
9:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - July (Germany)
9:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (euro zone)
9:00 ** Industrial Production - May (euro zone)

Strong influence on the market (EUR). Statistics is rather important, although the euro is now much influenced with the situation in Greece, so that the market may ignore the data. However, we note that the analysts expect the decline of ZEW indexes for Germany and the euro zone as a whole.

9:15 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)
9:15 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** MPC Member Ian McCafferty Speaks - July (UK)
9:15 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - July (UK)
11:45 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)
11:45 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
11:45 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). At the hearings, representatives of the Treasury special committee and the Bank of England report on progress over time and answer questions from parliamentarians. The head of the Bank of England and some members of the Monetary Policy Committee will speak.

12:30 *** Retail Sales - June (USA)
12:30 *** Core Retail Sales - June (USA)
12:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - June (USA)
12:30 ** Import Prices - June (USA)
14:00 ** Business Inventories - May (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Retail Sales, adjusted for seasonality and working days, but without price changes. Strong deviations from the forecast can move markets, as well as other data published today. In June it is expected growth, but less strong than the previous month.

Vista Brokers: Euro Fell after Long-Awaited Decision on Greece

Protracted negotiations of Greece and its creditors, a technical default, closed banks ... all of this recently was keeping markets in suspense, making quotes to forget about technical patterns and surrender into the hands of fundamental ones. On Monday, the "Greek saga" has reached the final - Athens with international creditors agreed on a three-year financial bailout program.

Vista Brokers analysts say that the euro has responded to a long-awaited decision with a decline against the US dollar. Firstly, the decision was put in prices earlier, and secondly, when the Greek question was decided the topic of the Fed's interest rate hike came to the fore again.

So, Greece will receive 86 billion euros under the program of financial assistance during the next three years. Such a statement was made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a press conference following the summit of the euro zone countries, which has lasted 17 hours. Athens will receive financial assistance in return for serious pension reform, tax increases, mass privatization, the reform of the product, the pharmaceutical industry and more. By 15 July the government should take 15 measures (laws), and by July 22 - 22. If the Greek Parliament starts to pass new laws, the country will receive the first 7 billion euros until July 20. The market continues to closely monitor the course of events.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Continues to Fall

During Tuesday's Asian trading, oil prices continued to decline. Vista Brokers analysts note a strong pressure on the market, that has negotiations on Iran, which are coming to an end, as well as expected release of crude oil reserves data in the United States.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange August futures for WTI crude oil have declined today by 0.80% to $ 51.78 per barrel. Meanwhile, on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent contracts for August delivery have reached a session high of $ 59.14 a barrel, before dipping to $58.17, down 0.81 or 1.38%earlier.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will report today about the increase / decrease of crude oil inventories, and the US Department of Energy will do it tomorrow. Last week, the data could surprise investors and analysts. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the USA have risen for the week ended July 3 by 400,000 barrels instead of the expected decline by 500 000. Thus, the volume of reserves has reached 465.8 million barrels, the highest level in the last 80 years. Growth "black gold" production and the development of shale deposits in the United States are among the reasons that led to oversupply in the oil market. That is why oil traders are watching the situation so closely.

As for Iran, on Monday afternoon, the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that no agreement on the country's nuclear program will be concluded before the expiry of the deadline. Recall that the deadline for negotiations between Tehran and six world powers was postponed three times in recent weeks. However, White House representatives noted that that "genuine progress," had been made in the negotiations in spite of the further delays.

Completion of negotiations on Iran, followed by international sanctions lifting is a bearish signal for the oil market, as Tehran said that 30 million barrels are in reserves and ready to go for export. Although the country will take time to restore its former position, for the oil market it means oversupply increasing.

EUR / USD. Goodbye Head, Goodbye Shoulders

An agreement on Greece gave impetus to the growth of risky and potentially high-yielding assets such as the US dollar, which has completely broken the bright idea of ​​the possible potential realization of the reversal pattern «Head-n-Shoulders». But there is another side of the coin, which gives us a reason to quickly take advantage of the situation, as the oppositely directed movement, given broken expectations of investors, can be very strong. Thus, many forecasters from investment banks have already revised the scenario for the euro in favor of its further decline.

It is recommended to open short positions on a breakthrough of the support level 1.0914.

Volatility: 72%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

USD / JPY. Ad Astra

Quotes have confidently passed the resistance line of the descending price channel of the last few weeks. The reason was the improvement in sentiment towards risk, which gives reason to expect a further strengthening of the US currency against the yen. Note that the current recovery is carried out with confidence and bulls "see" the support line from which they are buying very well. It should be noted that a lot will be decided today, after the USA reports on the pace of sales in the retail sector. Forecasts are quite positive.

It is recommended to hold long positions (if any), and also to be ready to buy on the closest resistance breakthrough at 123.72 with a target of 125.84, where is the multi-year high for the pair.

Volatility: 64%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Vista Brokers: Gold Declines prior to US Statistics

On Tuesday, gold is declining. Vista Brokers analysts note that all investors' attention today is focused on the data on retail sales, which will be published later in the USA. Now, when the Greek problem is solved, the focus of the market is on further recovery of the US economy and the Fed's rate hike. Demand for risky assets is growing.

During European trading, gold futures for August delivery on the Comex have fallen by 0.15% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the gold sank to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.80 before closing at $ 1,155.40 (-0.22%). Silver for September delivery has fallen today by 0.83% to $ 15.32 per ounce. On Monday, the metal has lost 0.16% to close at $ 15.45 an ounce.

Today in the United States will be published data on retail sales and business inventories, and forecasts are rather optimistic. Tomorrow the Fed's head will speak ahead of the Senate Banking Committee. If today's statistics is strong and Yellen's comments are optimistic, gold can update lows.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

We continue to hold the short position from 1157.97. In recent 24 hours we have received signals to add to the position from the "red zone", as well as from the AC indicator - "zero crossing" and "2 red bars below zero." Meanwhile the market remains calm enough, but it is likely that players will activate soon, namely after today's retail sales data release in the United States.

Volatility: 25%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

We continue to hold the position to buy from 122.87, but the current value of the red Alligator's line (122.51) does not guarantee us a positive outcome. Thus, the market is consolidating after local highs breakthrough, but gives us the opportunity to add volume in accordance with System signals - we have "green zone" signals and "2 green bars above zero" on the AC.

Volatility: 64%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

After a positive decision of European authorities on Greece a downward trend in the single currency continues (at least if we take near-term), and this has involved us to the sale position after fractal down level breakthrough (1.0989). However, judging by the dynamics of the pair, the market has not completely determined with the direction, which means that we should be ready to respond to a possible reversal and the position closure.

Volatility: 70%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

The position to buy from 1.5551 is no longer relevant after one of the bars closure below the red Alligator's line. Nevertheless, market participants have made a new attempt to storm recent highs – a breakthrough of the fractal level at 1.5589.

Volatility: 40%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: strong

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Market Pulse 07/15

Wednesday is very saturated with important statistics that will be published throughout the day. China has reported on GDP for the 2nd quarter and industrial production in June. Also a press conference was held at the National Bureau of Statistics. In Japan, the central bank has adopted a decision on the interest rate and the annual growth of the monetary base.

8:30 *** Claimant Count Change - June (UK)
08:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - June (UK)
8:30 ** Unemployment Rate - June (UK)
8:30 ** Average Earnings Index - June (UK)
8:30 ** Employment Change - June (UK)

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Portion of statistics on the UK labor market will attract investors' attention. Forecasts are optimistic: it is expected, that the number of applications for benefits declines, earnings grow and the unemployment rate remains at the previous level - 5.5%. Stronger data may stimulate the growth of the British pound.

12:30 *** Producer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core PPI - June (USA)
12:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - June (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Another piece of US data may cause active market fluctuations. Strong data are able to maintain confidence that the Fed will raise the interest rate in the foreseeable future. Forecasts are optimistic.

12:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - May (Canada)
13:00 ** Existing Home Sales - June (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Manufacturing sales can serve as an early indicator of the acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. The growth is favorable for the currency.

13:15 ** Capacity Utilization - June (USA)
13:15 ** Industrial Production - June (USA)

Moderate influence on the market (USD). Analysts expect both indicators to increase in June. Now the market closely monitors the statistics published in the United States, as it can provide signals about the Fed's interest rate hike.

14:00 *** BOC Monetary Policy Report - Q3 (Canada)
14:00 *** Overnight Rate - July (Canada)
14:00 *** BOC Rate Statement - July (Canada)
15:15 *** BOC Press Conference - July (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). From the Bank of Canada market is not waiting for any surprises: the rate should remain at 0.75%. However, the monetary policy report, as well as the accompanying statement may shed light on the future plans of the Bank of Canada.

14:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - July (USA)
18:00 ** Beige Book - July (USA)
19:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Speech of Janet Yellen is one of the most important events of the day, as after the adoption of the long-awaited decision on Greece the question of the Fed's rate hike is in focus. Optimistic comments of Fed's head, as well as of Federal Open Market Committee members will support the confidence of investors that the US central bank will raise the rate.

Vista Brokers: Market Is Full of Doubts

On Tuesday, the EUR / USD was trading within a wide price range. Vista Brokers analysts say that after the strong decline of the euro, following the prior agreement on the Greek financial bailout program, the market could not determine the direction amid the saturated fundamental background.

Will the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras convince the Greek parliament to pass laws that are required to receive a tranche? In the first half of the day the euro was pressured with the fact that Greece will take four of required laws, including painful pension and tax reforms before the deadline on Wednesday. Amid this the EUR / USD has touched a week low at 1.0967.

During the US trading session in the USA were published important data, which were in general not so optimistic, as the market had expected. In June, retail sales in the US have fallen by 0.3% against the forecasted growth of 0.2%. The May data was revised down. Statistics on business inventories was in a line with forecast (+ 0.3%).

After such statistics market has returned to concerns about the US economic growth in the second quarter, and as a result, the Fed's interest rate hike. Today is the day, very saturated with the information, and the Fed's head Janet Yellen speech will draw the particularly strong attention. Her comments can zoom or delay the rate increase waiting times.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Rose after Strong Statistics from China

During early trading in Forex the Australian dollar was losing positions after the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment index, which has fallen in July to 92.2, its lowest level since December last year. However, as Vista Brokers say, later Aussie has changed its direction and began to grow after the publication of statistics in China. Immediately after the strong data release, AUD / USD has added 0.12% to 0.7466.

All China's statistics published at 02:00 GMT were better than expected, which, of course, has added optimism to the Australian dollar and other "commodity" currencies. So, the real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).

From the news published during the Asian session, it is also worth noting that the Bank of Japan has voted 8 to 1 for leaving its monetary policy unchanged. It is worth noting that the Japanese central bank has revised its forecasts for GDP and inflation for the next three fiscal years, with a decrease.

USD / CAD. Close to Final Frontier

An agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, as a result of which a serious participant of the hydrocarbons market (Iran) may return its power, casts doubt on the possibility of bears in USD / CAD to seize the initiative near six-year highs. Recall that Canada is one of the largest oil exporters, and the Canadian currency is often in phase with oil quotes. However, for this pair everything will be decided later today after the Bank of Canada will publish its decision on the interest rate. If the rate will be cut (it is the likely result, though not the basic one), the pair can "fly off into space."

It is recommended to wait for the BOC decision on the rate, being ready to enter on the 1.2334 level breakthrough.

Volatility: 67%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: strong

GBP / USD. Wind Is Turning

The British currency has shown its stuff yesterday. A spectacular growth during yesterday's trading was provided by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who has proclaimed the approach of the rate hike. As a result it was a very strong growth in the pair, that was reinforced also with published yesterday weak data on the US retail sales. Thus, the market situation has changed dramatically, which requires a quick response to this context.

It is recommended to buy on corrections within the current short-term trend borders with the target in the area of ​​1.59, where is the next important resistance level.

Volatility: 36%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Vista Brokers: Gold Treads Water, Copper Grows

On Wednesday, gold is traded without a direction prior to the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen speech, while copper is increasing after positive statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that the speech of the Fed's head ahead of Congress, that will be held later today, can significantly affect many financial instruments.

Based on Yellen's comments, market participants will draw conclusions about the timing of interest rate hike. Last Friday, the Fed's chief reiterated that the regulator will raise rates later this year, if on the labor market and the US economy as a whole is positive. Despite clear signs of the US economy recovery, the situation is still ambiguous, and a vivid example of this was yesterday's retail sales data, which has showed a decline of 0.3%.

So today, in early hours of the European trading session on the Comex, gold futures for August delivery have fallen by 0.02% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the metal has fallen to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.40 before closing at $ 1,153.50 (-0.16%). Silver for September delivery today was traded on Comex at $ 15.28 per ounce (-0.23%). On Tuesday, the metal has fallen by 0.92% to close at $ 15.31.

Meanwhile, copper today has risen in price after the publication of strong data in China. The real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).

Positive statistics reduced concerns over a slowdown in China's economy and supported copper, as China is the world's largest importer of the metal (40%). Copper futures for September delivery have risen today on the Comex by 0.82% to $ 2.556 per pound.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

The order to sale from 1157.97 is still relevant, despite the fact that, amid recent events (remember, important agreements were reached on Greece and also Iran's nuclear program), investors have completely lost interest in the yellow metal, moving their attention to risky assets, and the stock market in particular. Thus, quotes are drifting in a narrow trading range, also we have a single signal to sell from the AO indicator (saucer). Stop trade, corresponding to the value of the red Alligator's line, is very close to the opening price.

Volatility: 26%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

We continue to hold the long position from 122.87, with no additional signals to add volume. The red Alligator's line has moved to 122.98, formally giving us the reason to expect a final positive result.

Volatility: 62%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

Despite the sharp pullback in prices to the area of Alligator's teeth after yesterday's weak retail sales data (1.0989) in the USA, the position to sale from 1.0989 is still in the market. Among additional signals for sale we have "saucer" on the AO, "zero crossing" on AC, as well as "red zone" signals.


Volatility: 63%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We continue to hold the position to buy from 1.5589, to which we can already add extra volume after receiving "green zone" signals. Today, during the US trading session it is expected a number of important statistical publications in the United States, so Vista Brokers analysts recommend to monitor the market.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 07/16

Today, the European Central Bank will announce a decision on the key interest rate, followed by a traditional Mario Draghi press conference, from which market participants can receive interesting information, as well as signals for further ECB actions. Vista Brokers analysts note that during the US session fresh data on the US labor market be published.

1:00 ** MI Inflation Expectations - July (Australia)
1:30 ** NAB Quarterly Business Confidence - Q2 (Australia)

Moderate impact on the market (AUD). Australian MI inflation expectations index is often higher than the official data, but it is a good indicator of the assessment of current households attitudes in relation to inflation. High values ​​can be a signal to tighten policy, supporting the currency.

5:00 ** Bank of Japan Monthly Report - July (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The BOJ monthly report consists a fairly concise description of main indicators and the global economy that is taken into account by the monetary committee when deciding on the rate. The report helps to understand further policy of the Bank of Japan. Words about readiness to act in order to support the economy may put pressure on the yen.

9:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Core CPI - June (euro zone)
11:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision - July (euro zone)
11:45 ** Deposit Facility Rate - July (euro zone)
11:45 ** Marginal lending facility - July (euro zone)
12:30 *** ECB Press Conference - July (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The market does not wait for changes in interest rates by the ECB, but in the course of the press conference can be interesting comments that could be interpreted as signals to changes in the strategy of the European Central Bank in the future. Therefore, investors will be attentive to the words of Draghi.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - July (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - July (USA)
14:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - July (USA)
14:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - July (USA)
14:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - July (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Another portion of statistics from the US market may tense markets. Special attention is necessary to listen to the Janet Yellen's speech. She speaks ahead of the Congress the second consecutive day. As for other data, forecasts are generally optimistic, in addition to the expected decline in the index of the Philadelphia Fed. While there is always the possibility that the statistics will present surprises.

18:00 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Previous performance of the BOE head has caused the rally of the pound, as the signal was given that the interest rate can be increased. Fresh Carney comments can strengthen confidence in the fact that the Bank of England is next in line after the Fed.

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Vista Brokers: Yellen Strengthened Confidence in Fed Rate Hike

The main event on Wednesday was the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen. Vista Brokers analysts say that Yellen's comments has strengthened the belief that the US central bank will raise its key interest rate until the end of the year.

Yellen said that the interest rate will be raised "before year end", although noted some negative aspects. In particular, risks for the US economy, created with a situation in Greece and the slowdown in China's economy. After the Fed's head speech the dollar grew up broadly, gold has fallen to a minimum of 2015. The EUR / USD has declined by 0.50% to 1.0953 (the weekly low), while the dollar index has risen by 0.37% to 97.17 (maximum since 7 July).

Additional support for the optimism of market participants in relation to the dollar gave a statistic that was published yesterday in the United States. Thus, the index of producer prices in June has risen by 0.4% vs. 0.2%, while the Empire Manufacturing industrial index in July has increased to 3.86 against the expected 3.4. Recall that the previous month the index has declined to -1.98. Today, the market is also waiting for a busy day with another Janet Yellen's speech and statistics on the US labor market.

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Vista Brokers: Greece Weakened Precarious Position of Gold

During the Asian trading session on Thursday, price of gold futures continued to reduce. Vista Brokers analysts say that the already precarious position of gold was weakened with the fact that the Greek parliament has passed first needed bills required under terms of a three-year bailout program. On the Comex, gold futures for August delivery have fallen by 0.08% to $ 1,146.50 per troy ounce. Silver for September delivery has fallen in price by 0.27% to $ 15,008 per ounce. Copper continues to rise after yesterday's strong statistics from China - September futures have increased by 0.07% to $ 2.516 per pound.

Many doubted that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can persuade parliament to pass unpopular reforms, against which the Greek people had voted. However, necessary measures have been taken with 229 yes, 64 no and 6 present, and now probably Athens will receive the first tranche from creditors. Greece needs the foreign aid desperately to resume the work of banks and to implement overdue payments. It is noteworthy that the "native" left-wing forces did not support their leader that may indicate that the split in parliament is worsening. In his defense, Tsipras said that other than to accept the creditors' plan, he had only two choices - a chaotic default and the voluntary exit from the euro zone.

So, Greece is likely to receive assistance from the EU, the ECB and the IMF, at least the first part of it, which undermines the position of gold as a safe-haven asset to which market participants are turning in unstable times. In addition, the pressure on the metal has the US economic recovery and the high probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate before the end of the year.

So, after a speech of the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen yesterday gold has collapsed to a minimum of 2015. The head of the US central bank has confirmed that the regulator intends to raise rates later this year, provided that the statistics continue to show improvement in the economic situation.

USD / CAD: Let it Roll!

As Vista Brokers analytics had expected, the pair flew into space, or to be more precise, to the new six-year highs, after the Bank of Canada cut the rate yesterday. This is the second reduction of this year, which reflects concerns about the state of the national export-oriented economy in connection with the fall in oil prices. Thus, quotes have left graphic borders of the rising channel, which can now be adjusted with account of momentum acceleration.

It is recommended to hold long positions, carried out after 1.2334 breakthrough, adding on corrective declines.

Volatility: 69%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

EUR / USD. What Will Draghi Say?

Yesterday's speech of Janet Yellen was rather aggressive, that has led to a significant strengthening of the US dollar. The Fed's head has marked the inevitability of this year rate hike, remained rather pleased with the state of the national economy, and mentioned the almost full employment. Today's meeting of the ECB may "finish" the euro if Mario Draghi, in turn, denotes the probability of the quantitative easing program expanding or the probability of its deadline extension.

It is recommended to wait for the market reaction to Draghi's speech before considering opening positions. The path of least resistance for the euro goes down, and in the case of quotes consolidation below the nearest support at 1.0915 we may consider short positions opening with the target in the area of 1.0820, where is the next important level.

Volatility: 56%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: strong

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

The risk appetite rise in global financial markets has pushed gold prices to the lowest levels for the past few months. It gave a serious reason to expect a positive result on the existing short position from 1159.97. Among additional signals we have "saucer" on the AO, "zero-crossing" on the AC, as well as "red zone" signals. It is worth noting that there was also a signal "5 red bars in a row," which means on the one hand, the ability to move a stop order to the level of the last red bar high and on the other — we must stop to add volume in accordance with "red zone" signals.

Volatility: 26%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The order to buy from 122.87 remains relevant because the pair continues to grow slowly but surely. The value of the Alligator's teeth, and the value of our conditional stop order as well, were moved to the level of 123.26. Among additional signals we see "saucer" on the AO, as well as "zero crossing" and "2 green bars above zero" on the AC. Also, we have the same directed fractal as another signal to add.

Volatility: 72%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

With the resumption of the downward trend the profit on the current short position has increased over the past day significantly and is already about a figure. Today we expect the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi after the meeting of the European CB on the monetary policy, so Vista Brokers analysts recommend to monitor all received System signals.

Volatility: 54%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

The long position from 1.5589 will be closed soon, as the current bar has crossed the red Alligator's line. If it closes at current levels, the result of the transaction will need to be fixed quickly.

Volatility: 42%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 07/17

Friday will be saturated with statistics, especially during the American trading session, when some interesting data will be published in Canada and the United States.

12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (Canada)
12:30 *** Core CPI Bank of Canada - June (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). It is expected a slight increase in the consumer price index in the first summer month, although given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, even if the growth is stronger than expected, it will hardly support the Canadian dollar.

12:30 *** Building Permits - June (USA)
12:30 ** Housing Starts - June (USA)
12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 *** Core CPI - June (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core CPI - June (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). This week was very busy in terms of statistics, particularly for the USA, where the large portion of important data was published. Among Friday's statistics Vista Brokers analysts recommend to pay most attention to the consumer price index. The strong data may support market confidence that the Fed's rate hike is coming.

14:00 *** UoM Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim) - July (USA)
14:00 ** Stanley Fischer (Fed Vice Chairman) Speaks - July (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). The UoM consumer sentiment index is predicted to rise, and the positive data may provide an additional support for the dollar. Fisher comments may also be interesting for the market, in particular, the vice chairman of the US central bank can confirm Fed's intention to raise the rate.

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Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Update Lows

On Thursday, the euro was mainly declining against the US dollar, although as Vista Brokers analysts say, fundamental background for the major currency pair was saturated and mixed. The trading day began with the news that the Greek parliament had passed the first bills, which the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his team agreed with creditors. It would seem that it is positive information for the euro, but it has forced investors to focus on the problem that Tsipras has ceased to enjoy the support of his party, which puts his premiership into question.

Given that the situation in Greece is more or less stabilized, and it became clear that the country will receive, at least, the first tranche, has returned the market to the subject of Fed's interest rate hike. The Fed's head Janet Yellen has reiterated in her yesterday's speech, that the US central bank is going to raise the rate this year. She noted, again, that the regulator will monitor statistics, which should show a stable economic recovery.

Yesterday's weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance in the United States, has showed a further decline by 15 000; the number of counting claims also fell more than expected. Thus the Philly Fed manufacturing index has fallen to 4-month low of 5.7, while analysts had expected a decline to only 11.9.

Among important events of Thursday, should be noted also a press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who reiterated that the European Central Bank is going to use the program of quantitative easing in the previously announced volume. Amid this the euro has fallen against the dollar to a 7-week low.

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Vista Brokers: Dust Settles from Iran Deal

On Friday, oil prices in the world market is increasing in price after the Thursday's decline. Vista Brokers analysts note that the recently concluded deal on Iran, along with the prospect of the major market player, no longer put pressure on quotes, at least for a while.

Today on NYMEX August futures for WTI have lost 0.44%, reaching $ 51.14 per barrel. The contract for Brent for September delivery on the ICE exchange has risen by 0.38% to $ 56.90 per barrel. Asian markets are closed on the occasion of Eid al-Adha.

Analysts say that instead of Iran to the fore for the oil market returned topic of the oil production reducing in the United States. Recall that today in the United States will be published report by Baker Hughes on the change in the number of drilling rigs during the past week. This indicator shows growth for the second week in a row, although this fell consistently for 29 weeks. At the moment, the number of installations has reached 645 (5 last week).

On Wednesday, its data on changes in oil inventories in the US has released the official body, EIA, reflecting in its report that inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending July 10 (instead expected 1.2 million barrels). Thus inventories level is close to 461.4 million barrels, which is still too much, given the state of the world economy (80 years maximum).

Note also that support for oil quotes could have the fact that the summer driving season in the United States is in full swing, which means that for some time, petroleum products in the country will be in high demand. Oil refinery last week were working at 95.3% of capacity.

USD / CAD. Bulls Try to Consolidate Success

The pair's growth is currently capped at 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the May growth wave. Meanwhile prospects of rising momentum remain. Today we expect important publications on the situation with the rate of inflation in the United States and Canada, which market players prefer not to underestimate (that is why many of them are still “sitting on the fence”). The Bank of Canada interest rate cut (and the possibility of further lowerimg) on the one hand,and expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed on the other hand have to find their fundamental basis in today's data.

Vista Brokers analysts point that the baseline scenario intends holding of long positions. The nearest resistance level is a 2009 high (1.3063). The strategic target is the correctional level of 61.8% of the wave of decline in the period 2001-2007 at 1.3460.

Volatility: 70%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

GOLD. Risks Move towards Further Decline

Loss of interest in buying gold amid the positive result of situations with Greece and Iran, led yellow metal quotes to the lowest level in the past eight months. A break of this support would be a catalyst for the acceleration of the current wave of decline.

It is recommended to enter into short positions on the day closing below $1142 per ounce. The target is the level of 1131, the breakdown of which, in turn, opens the way to achieve multi-year lows. In turn, this could cause really large-scale sales of the metal.

Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

During the last 24 hours a floating result on the relevant short position from 1159.97 has not changed much. There is no additional signals to sale. Today the US will publish some interesting statistics regarding the situation with inflation in the country, so as Vista Brokers analysts note, the US trading session could prove to be very active in terms of trading.

Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The long position from 122.87 is still relevant. On the AC we have the additional signal "3 green bar above zero". The value of the Alligator's teeth has moved to 123.59.

Volatility: 72%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

We continue to hold the sell position with no additional signals during the last day. The red Alligator's line has moved to the positive zone a little more (1.0962).

Volatility: 53%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

There is almost no result on the long position from 1.5589 amid sideways trading. Meanwhile, we are ready to quickly fix this result on an appropriate System signal.

Volatility: 46%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 07/20

On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty, so the market volatility will unlikely be high. Vista Brokers analysts note that Japan this day celebrates the Marine Day, and the market does not work.

6:00 * Producer Price Index - June (Germany)

Weak impact on the market (EUR). Monthly change in PPI. It may be an early signal of inflation trends change or their confirmation.

8:00 * Euro-Zone Current Account - May (euro zone)

Weak impact on the market (EUR). The balance of payments includes the movement of goods and services as well as capital inflows and outflows. The growth of the rate or forecast exceeding are favorable for the euro.

8:30 ** Public Sector Net Borrowing - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Sector Net Borrowing ex Banking Groups - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Finances - June (UK)
8:30 * Central Government NCR - June (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Net borrowing shows the difference between expenses and income of the central and local governments and government agencies. Costs rising is negative for the currency.

12:30 ** Wholesale Sales - May (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Changes in sales in wholesale stores is a good leading indicator of activity since later this will affect consumer and / or industrial activity.