Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Weakness Gave Gold Opportunity to Rise

During the European trading session on Friday, gold was rising. Vista Brokers analysts say that yesterday's disappointing data on the US labor market have weakened the dollar and gave metals an opportunity to increase. Recall that a trading volume today is low due to Independence Day celebration in the United States.

August gold futures on Comex have risen by 0.33% to $ 1,167.30 per troy ounce, recovering after closing at $ 1,163.50 on Thursday. Silver futures for September delivery have increased by 0.39% to $ 15,622 per ounce, September copper futures - by 0.26% to $ 2.637 per pound.

Statistics on the US labor market released on Thursday has added uncertainty in the situation with the expectation of the Fed interest rate hike. Such important data as non-farm payrolls, average hourly wages and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits were worse than expected.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

Today markets are calm and quiet after yesterday's short-term shake caused by the US labor market data. Thus, currently we see the rebound from earlier reached lows, and the red Alligator's line is close. Recall that closure above it will tell us to fix the result on the current position to sale from 1173.59.

Volatility: 19%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

We have moved the order to buy to the new fractal up level, at 121.94. Given the fact that today the United States (and many market participants) celebrate Independence Day. So, the position will unlikely open soon, if only the new, more relevant fractal appears closer to the price.

Volatility: 61%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The short position from 1.1110 will soon be closed on a classical red Alligator's line crossing. During the last 24 hours there were no additional sales signals.

Volatility: 42%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We continue to hold the short position from 1.5671, despite of the significant rebound from levels reached during the recent days downward movement. Currently we should be ready to fix the result on the position if the upward retracement will continue.

Volatility: 39%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: strong

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Market Pulse 07/06

On Monday, the most busy with statistics is the US trading session, when in the United States will be published such important data as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI index, and in Canada - Ivey PMI index.

06:00 ** Factory Orders - May (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Changes in total industrial orders received by industrial enterprises. It is often a leading indicator of the industrial production dynamics for several months. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

07:15 ** Consumer Price Index - June (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because the monetary policy often depends on it. The growth of the rate (or the forecast exceeding) are positive for the currency.

14:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)
14:00 ** ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data above 50 shows increase in activity compared to the previous month. In June, indexes are expected to increase.

14:00 *** Ivey PMI - June (Canada)
14:30 ** Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer - June (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The Ivey index is based on a survey of purchasing managers. It shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The growth of the rate or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Was in Narrow Range prior to Referendum

On Friday, trading volumes in Forex were low due to the US Independence Day. Vista Brokers analysts note that EUR / USD was traded in a narrow range prior to a referendum in Greece, scheduled for Sunday. At the end of the day the pair has risen by 0.17% to 1.1102.

Friday's statistics in the euro zone was mixed. Thus, retail sales in May in the region have increased by 0.2% mom and by 2.4% yoy, exceeding forecasts of 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively. The PMI index for the services sector in Germany has fallen from 54.2 to 53.8, while zero growth was expected. A similar index for France has remained at 54.1 as expected.

Note that the results of the referendum, which was held yesterday in Greece, showed that the majority of citizens said "no" to requirements of the ECB, the EU and the IMF, and therefore it is unlikely that Athens will agree with the "troika" regards the new financial program. The consequences of this decision may be serious enough - skeptics say not only about the exit of Greece from the euro zone, but also the disintegration of the monetary union itself. Left-wing parties, such as the Greek, "Syriza" take quite a strong position in many countries of the region. If such forces come to power in Italy or Spain, it is likely that these countries will go the same way as Greece.

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EUR / USD. Never a Moment's Peace

The US employment data published on Thursday (rescheduled due to the celebration of Independence Day) together with the market's reaction on the results of the plebiscite in Greece (the people spoke against the agreement with creditors on current conditions) continue to influence the dynamics of the market. As a result, it is very difficult to work, because the reaction of remaining market players in response to certain statements of political leaders (on the bailout program for Greece) clearly can not be taken as a basis for trading decisions. Thus, if the consideration of the agreement will be delayed again, it is expected that the market's attention to this topic will reduce. As a consequence of the continued uncertainty quotes are currently moving in the framework of a tapering price channel, that we may call by stretching a point a "symmetrical triangle".

At this stage, it is recommended to focus on macro-economic indicators, with a corresponding reaction to a probable break of the "triangle" boundaries. Alternatively, if range trading continues, we should use oscillators to detect conditional overbought and oversold zones.

Volatility: 44%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

USD / JPY. Investors Are Interested in Safe-Haven Assets

Today, after release of the information about the Greek people will, bears made an attempt to overcome the lower boundary of the graphic figure "triangle". The Japanese currency is traditionally considered as a safe-haven asset more than the US one, which leads to significant price fluctuations, even when the market receives the news, that at first glance, has no relevance to it. However, quotes have already returned to the above-mentioned pattern borders, and now we see some preconditions for the development of an upward movement.

Today, it is recommended to stay out of the market, waiting for the stabilization of the situation or the real exit of quotes beyond the "triangle."

Volatility: 67%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

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Vista Brokers: Oil Fell to 3-Month Low

On Monday, oil drops amid results of the referendum in Greece. Vista Brokers analysts say that investors prefer safe-haven assets such as precious metals in the commodity market and the Japanese yen in the currency one. According to the results of the referendum the majority of Greeks said "no" to reforms that require the ECB, the EU and the IMF, and therefore the unstable situation in the euro zone will worsen.

Today, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have reached the lowest level since April at $ 59.38. Later, the price has rebounded slightly - to $ 59.67. Thus the decline since the trading opening was 1.07%.

Meanwhile, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for delivery in August, have fallen in price by 0.84% ​​to $ 55.05. Earlier today, these futures have also reached the lowest level since April - $ 54.55. The spread between Brent and WTI has increased to $ 4.62 from $ 3.39 by close of trade on Thursday .

Thus, the Greek saga continues – the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has expressed a positive attitude towards the results of the referendum and said that negotiations with creditors will continue to resolve the situation with the banking sector. Recall that banks in Greece do not work for a week. The European Central Bank has not yet announced a decision on the supply of liquidity in the Greek financial system. If the flow of financing stops, the banking system would be destroyed within a few days.

In a surprise move, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis resigned. He argued his departure that "some European participants " believe that the absence of Varufakis in the negotiations will help to reach an agreement. So he leaves the post to facilitate Tsipras negotiations with the "troika".

Analysts say that today the situation in all financial markets is highly volatile and it is difficult for traders to make trading decisions based on comments about Greece and interpretations which are now influencing the dynamics of many financial instruments.

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Market Pulse 07/085:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Current - June (Japan)5:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook - June (Japan)Moderate impact on the market (JPY). Workers in sectors, which dramatically affects the change in consumer spending (workers of taxis, hotels, restaurants etc.), estimate the current situation in the economy, as well as its prospects.11:30 *** Annual Budget Release - 2014 (UK)Strong impact on the market (GPB). Speech of the British Chancellor of the Exchequer with the budget plan for the coming fiscal year, which begins in April. Traders and investors closely monitor, how balanced the budget is and what does the Treasury plans the next year.12:30 *** Building Permits - May (Canada)Strong impact on the market (CAD). Changing in the volume of permits issued for housing construction in Canada, seasonally adjusted. It is the important leading health indicator for the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Strong data can support the currency.18:00 *** FOMC Meeting Minutes - June (USA)Strong impact on the market (USD). Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting help to more fully understand the reasoning of the Committee during the meeting and help market players to understand the Fed's next steps.18:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)Moderate impact on the market (USD). John Williams is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, his opinion affects the monetary policy.

Vista Brokers: Euro Is Grasping at StrawsOn Tuesday morning the single currency fell against the dollar to 1-month low, but later regained position. Vista Brokers analysts note that the growth driver during the American session for the euro was the fact that Greece has submitted a new request to creditors to continue the program of financial assistance, despite the fact that the Sunday's referendum had showed the negative attitude of the Greeks to conditions of lending program from the ECB, the EU and the IMF. This is probably the last hope of Greece to remain in the euro zone.At the emergency meeting in Brussels, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has suggested European leaders a new plan to help the country to avoid bankruptcy. The plan includes two phases. The short-term phase implies that lenders will provide a new tranche in the next 3-4 months that Greece could pay debts to the ECB and the IMF, as well as to support banks. The long-term one is a two-year lending program, which also involves the releif of a significant part of the Greek debt. Judging objectively, the "troika" is unlikely to agree to such conditions, although it is impossible to make any predictions in such a difficult and tense situation.Nevertheless, the market took the news about the latest proposal by Greece positive, and the euro rose sharply to $ 1.1002, ending the session with only a slight decline - 0.48%. Earlier, the pair has dropped to a four-week low at 1.0917.

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Vista Brokers: Crude Oil Futures Are Falling again

On Wednesday, oil price are falling in price again. Vista Brokers analysts name several reasons for the decline: concerns over Greece, the panic in the Chinese stock market and the expectation of data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department.

Today during the Asian trading session, August futures for Brent have lost 38 cents, dropping to $ 56.47 per barrel. Since the beginning of the week, futures prices have dropped by more than 6% to April lows. US crude oil futures have tumbled today by 35 cents to $ 51.98, and since the beginning of the week they have lost about 8%.

Let us briefly describe all above-mentioned pressures. The development of the debt crisis in Greece continues to affect all financial markets. Lenders have given Athens timeuntil the end of the week to present a list of reforms in exchange for a new program of financial aid. Otherwise, Greece is likely to leave the euro zone.

As for China, the country's stock market continues to fall rapidly. The Shanghai Composite index has dropped at the opening by 6,97%, the Shenzhen Component has lost 4.44%. Compared to the peak in mid-June, the Shanghai Composite has sinked down by more than than 33% and the Shenzhen Component by 40%. This weekend, the People's Bank of China said that it would take measures to ensure financial support and stabilize the stock market by providing sufficient liquidity to China Securities Finance Corporation (the only company in China that provides financing secured by margin to brokers). CSF, in turn, will actively buy shares of small and medium-sized companies, supporting the stability of blue chips and providing liquidity to the market.

The data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department will be published today - analysts suggest that the volume of stocks last week has plunged again (by about 700,000 barrels). Earlier was released the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decrease of inventories by nearly 960,000 barrels in the same period.

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Vista Brokers: US Soybeans Are near 1-Week Low

On Wednesday, soybean futures declined for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to the 1-week minimum. Vista Brokers analysts note that the reason for the decline is the information on the good harvest in the US Midwest, as well as concerns about global economic slowdown.

Today at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybean futures for August delivery have fallen to the daily low of $ 9.8763 per bushel (the lowest level since 30 June) from the previously achieved level of $ 9.8850 (-0.31%). On Tuesday, the same futures has lost 2.96% during the day.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of July 5, about 63% of the crop of soybeans in the Midwest of the country is in good or excellent condition.

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Market Pulse 07/09During early trading on Thursday in Australia and China was published a lot of important statistics. In Australia - the data on the labor market, and in China - the consumer price index and the producer price index. The Bank of England today will announce a decision on the interest rate, and the USA - data on unemployment claims.6:00 ** Trade Balance - May (Germany)Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency, as they reflect the flow of money into the country.11:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - July (UK)11:00 *** Asset Purchase Facility - July (UK)11:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - July (UK)Strong impact on the market (GPB). From the Bank of England, investors do not expect any surprises. According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain at 0.50%, while the volume of asset purchases - 375 billion. Comments in the accompanying statement can be interesting.12:30 ** New Housing Price Index - May (Canada)Moderate impact on the market (CAD). This indicator is strongly correlated with the overall health of the economy and reflects the level of consumer confidence. The increase reflects positive trends.12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - July (USA)12:30 ** Continuing Claims - July (USA)Strong impact on the market (USD). The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits is a weekly indicator, having a great importance due to the expectation of the Fed's raising interest rate in September. It is expected reduction in the number of applications.14:15 ** FOMC Member Lyell Braynard Speaks - July (USA)Moderate impact on the market (USD). Braynard is a member of the FOMC, so his opinion influences decisions on monetary policy. Therefore, market participants are paying attention to his comments.

Vista Brokers: Greece and Fed Rate Hike Are in Central FocusOn Wednesday, EUR / USD was traded in a wide range. Vista Brokers analysts note that main subjects that move the market are still the Greek crisis and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.Yesterday, the European authorities have given Greece a period until Thursday to provide a new proposal to creditors. Athens hope to agree on a program of financial assistance from the European Stability Mechanism, the bailout fund of the euro zone. If no agreement is reached, the EU leaders will gather on Sunday at an unscheduled summit in Brussels to discuss the procedure and consequences of a Greek exit from the currency union. The new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalatos said that a new proposal for the creditors is ready - it includes tax and pension reform, as well as debt relief.During the US trading session on Wednesday the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were published. They showed that members of the Committee have expressed concerns that the situation in Greece will affect the financial markets, as well as were talking about the fact that the growth of the US economy should be more stable, and inflation - closer to the target of 2% before the rate hike. Thus, there are doubts that the Fed will raise the rate in September - investors will closely monitor the statistics published in the United States.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Is Rising on Positive News from China

On Thursday, during the Asian session, oil was rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that positive news from China was the driver for the growth. Firstly, the consumer price index in June has increased more than expected. Secondly, it became clear that the Chinese authorities are taking all necessary measures to calm the unrest in the country's markets.

Amid this on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for WTI crude oil for August delivery have risen by 0.90% to $ 52.12 per barrel. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), August futures for Brent were traded between $ 55.88 and $ 57.75 per barrel.

Events in China and the economy of this country greatly affects the oil market, as China is the world's largest consumer of "black gold." In June, the consumer price index in China has increased by 1.4% against the forecast of 1.3% and growth of 1.2% a month earlier. The producer price index has dropped by 4.8% vs. 4.6%, which means that the pressure on prices continues. However, optimism exceeded disappointment at the reduction of PPI.

Recall that in the past few days, investors' anxiety commodity market caused panic in the Chinese stock market and a significant drop in major stock indexes. However, today during the morning trading the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.35%. It became known that the People's Bank of China has provided liquidity to China Securities Finance Corp, which in turn, will provide it to other stock market participants.

We should also note other factors affecting the oil market. Last night, the US Energy Department has reported about crude oil inventories. So, for the week ended July 3, inventories have increased by nearly 400,000 barrels, although it was expected a decline by 750,000 barrels.

A certain influence also have talks on Iran, a positive result of which will allow the country to return to the oil market as a full participant. In recent days, the negotiations were actively conducted in Austria and it is the information that the parties have almost reached an agreement.

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Vista Brokers: BOE Decisions Met with Expectations

On Thursday, the British pound was strengthening against the US dollar prior to the release of the Bank of England decisions on the monetary policy. Vista Brokers analysts note that the British central bank has left its key interest rate unchanged - 0.50%, as well as the amount of asset purchases - 375 billion. These decisions are fully in line with expectations. Recall that the Bank of England's interest rate remains at 0.50% since March 2009.

Although market participants do not expect from the "old lady" any decisive steps in the near future, they are still looking for some hints that the central bank will gradually tighten its monetary policy. Perhaps some signals can be seen in the minutes of today's meeting, which will be published on July 22. The first reaction of GPB / USD on decisions of the Bank of England was a decline from 1.5385 to 1.5377.

European stock markets are rising today. The British FTSE 100 has increased by 1.1%, the EURO STOXX 50 - by 1.8%, the French CAC 40 by 1.75%, the German DAX by 1.65%.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

It is a status-quo in the market again. Earlier there was an activation of the order to sale from and then two days of ineffective attempts of sellers to take the wheel. The position was closed almost at the opening level (the red Alligator's lone crossing). After we have closed this position, we opened the long one on a fractal up breakthrough at 1164.93.

Volatility: 10%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

Yesterday's spurt to the south gave us the reason to relax a little regards our short position from 122.59, despite a current significant rebound from reached highs. Thus, the floating profit on this position is more than the figure, and the red Alligator's line the closure above which will give the signal to enter the market, is now at 122.15.

Volatility: 46%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The position to sale from 1.1031 was closed with a small loss (1.1047) and we should not talk about causes and consequences of such dynamics, bringing a basis under certain market fluctuations. Instead of this we had placed pending orders, one of which has already activated at 1.1091. It was the order to buy (the extremum of the nearest fractal up was crossed). Now we continue to work in accordance with the Williams System by adding volume to the position with respective signals.

Volatility: 58%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

Dynamics of the "cable" continues to please, as the short position from 1.5671 is still in the market, and its stop-trade is moving lower and lover (currently at 1.5480) following the price. We continue to get additional signals and use them despite the fundamental background (for example, today's Bank of England meeting).

Volatility: 37%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 07/10On Friday, the market will wait for the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen, which may shed light on the future plans of the US central bank (namely, terms in which the rate hike can be expected). Canada will attract the attention of traders with the release of the data on the labor market.8:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - May (UK)8:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - May (UK)Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The balance of trade is the difference between exports and imports in the reporting month. Higher values ​​are favorable for the currency, as they reflect a smaller outflow of money from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - June (Canada)12:30 *** Employment Change - June (Canada)12:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - June (Canada)12:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - June (Canada)Strong impact on the market (CAD). Projections on labor market data in Canada are hardly optimistic - unemployment is expected to rise in June from 6.8% to 6.9%, and the number of employees - to decline by 4,500.16:30 *** Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks - July (USA)Strong impact on the market (USD). From Janet Yellen market participants expect hints on when the Fed will raise the interest rate. As a rule, Yellen is cautious in her statements.

Vista Brokers: Dollar Increased despite Weak US Labor Market DataOn Thursday, the US dollar, was mainly increasing against the euro and other competitors. Vista Brokers analysts note that the position of the US currency did not weaken even after the release of the data on unemployment claims in the United States, which was much worse than expected. The market ignored the statistics, watching only the developments in Greece.Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended July 4 has increased by 15 000 to 297 000, while analysts had expected a decline of 7 000 to 275 000. This is not a good sign, because the last minutes of the Fed's meeting has once again confirmed that the regulator requires more obvious signals of economic recovery, to talk about rate hike. Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen and her comments on the matter.By the way, according to minutes, FOMC members have mentioned Greece and the impact of its problems on financial markets, which may keep the Fed from the rate hike. Now European authorities are deciding whether to accept conditions of the three-year program of financial assistance for which Greece has requested - the issue should be resolved at a crisis summit on Sunday.

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EUR / USD. «Head-n-Shoulders»?

On Friday morning bulls have started to wreck nerves of Euro-skeptics - quotes have increased to the 1-month high, making attempts to overcome not only the resistance line of the recent weeks short-term downtrend, but also the graphic border of the remarkable figure. Yes, indeed, it seems, that we have an inverted "head and shoulders" that determines our next steps. Note that in the absence of important fundamental releases today's trading will increasingly depend on technical factors, and that's good.

It is recommended to be prepared for entry into a long position in the case of overcoming graphic boundaries (the neckline) of the reversal pattern.

Volatility: 67%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

USD / JPY Is Trading in Phase with Asia

During the last few days trading in USD / JPY was mostly determined with the situation on Asian stock markets - recall the Chinese stock market this week has experienced the powerful wave of sales. Amid this a key Japanese index NIKKEI was also under pressure, which in a domino effect has led to the USD / JPY decline. Thus, quotes have reached the lower limit of the downward channel (which was launched at the beginning of June), where it was a sharp rebound.

It is recommended to open long positions in order to achieve the resistance line of the current price channel.

Volatility: 54%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: weak

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Vista Brokers: European Stock Markets Rise

On Friday, European stock markets rallied. Vista Brokers analysts note that financial market participants are hoping that the "Greek saga" will complete on Sunday with an agreement between Athens and creditors and approval of a new financial bailout program. Although this saga with the negotiations has been going on for months, still remains a chance that the European authorities will not allow the bankruptcy of Greece and its exit from the euro zone.

Amid optimistic expectations in early hours of the European trading session, the EURO STOXX 50 has risen by 2.60%, the French CAC 40 by 2.57% and the German DAX 30 - by 2.27%.

So, the decision on Greece must be taken on a Sunday, at the unscheduled summit of European Union higher ranks. Athens are walking the razor's edge - if the agreement with creditors is not reached, the country will face in the first place, the collapse of the banking system. All banks in the country are closed for nearly two weeks and without liquidity from the ECB it is not understandable how they open. ATMs can give no more than 60 euros per day.

Nevertheless, the Greeks, led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the new Minister of Finance Euclid Tsakalotos defenses and keep going just to make some concessions in the negotiations. So, late in the evening on Thursday, Athens have offered creditors a new reform plan, which includes painful budget cuts and tax increases. In return, Greece expects to receive from the "troika" 50 billion euros over the next three years.

Today's increase in European stocks, was primarily caused with the financial sectorrally. For example, shares of French lenders Societe Generale and BNP Paribas climbed 3.38% and 3.51%, and securities of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank - by 3.39% and 2.93%. On the periphery the Italian Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit rose by 3.74% and 3.78%, while Spanish BBVA and Banco Santander - by 2.52% and 2.99%.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Is Rising amid Stock Market Rally in China

On Friday, oil futures are rising in price amid China's stock market rally, which followed protracted decline (-30% over the last three weeks). Vista Brokers analysts note that the main index of the Chinese market Shanghai Composite has gained more than 5% today after the Chinese authorities have taken additional measures to stabilize the situation and to ensure market liquidity inflows.

Commodity investors viewed negatively the decline of the Chinese stock market, because China is one of the largest importers of oil and other resources in the world. Stabilization of the situation supports the market. Today, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for August delivery have reached during early European trading the level of $ 53.28 a barrel, gaining 0.90%.

Meanwhile, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have risen by 1.09% to $ 59.22 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI contracts is equal to $ 5.94 per barrel.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

We have fixed the result on the long position from 1164.93 at 1158.19 (the red Alligator's line crossing) with loss. At this stage, when we are out of the market, we need to place pending breakthrough orders at the nearest fractals. Thus, we will buy from 1167.62, and sale from 1156.84.

Volatility: 22%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

It seems that Asian stock markets have come out of a nosedive and currently we have strong recovery of the USD / JPY, which, in particular, seriously correlates with the dynamics of the Japanese index NIKKEI. Amid this we have to urgently fix the result on the short position from 122.59 in accord with the signal on the closure of one of the bars above the red Alligator's line (121.71). Currently we are out of the market with the nearest buy order at 122.87 and the sale one at 120.39. Note that conditions for potential entry are not the best, since indicators values are far from zero, and Alligator's lines are not intertwined.

Volatility: 56%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The long position from 1.1091 has not given the expected effect, because soon we received a signal to leave the market at 1.1021. However, soon it took another fractal breakthrough, which means for us another entry into the market to buy from 1.1127. It seems that the movement continues, so we are ready to add to the position if receive additional System signals.

Volatility: 68%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We have closed the order to sale from 1.5671 with a significant profit (1.5445) on the signal of the red Alligator's line crossing. Now the price is going up, but it does not concern us, because none of placed in opposite directions breakthrough orders at 1.5627 (buy) and 1.5342 (sell) was reached.

Volatility: 37%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

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Market Pulse 07/13

The most important event of the day on Monday will be a meeting of the European authorities in Brussels devoted to the Greek bailout program. The Bank of England today will publish its credit conditions survey.

*** Trade Balance - June (China)
** Exports - June (China)
** Imports - June (China)

Strong impact on the market. China does not inform in advance the exact time of publication, but it is worth noting that statistics published in this country, can significantly affect financial markets. In June, analysts expect the decline of the positive trade balance, a slight increase in imports and decrease in exports.

4:40 ** Tertiary Industry Activity - May (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The importance of this indicator in Japan inferiors to a manufacturing activity, but together they allow to form a picture of activity in the economy. In May it is expected a slowdown.

8:30 ** Credit Conditions Survey - Q2 (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The quarterly survey of the Bank of England regards credit conditionsfor households, small businesses, non-financial corporations and non-financial companies in which respondents are asked to assess the availability and volume of lending.

*** Eurogroup Meetings - June (euro zone)
** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - June (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The question of financial assistance to Greece remains in focus of the market, so the Eurogroup meeting on this subject will certainly attract attention. Any decisions taken regards Greece, as well as expectations and assessment of these decisions will be reflected in the dynamics of the euro and other tools.

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Vista Brokers: Market Believed in Greece again

On Friday, the euro was increasing against the US dollar and the Japanese yen amid renewed optimism about Greece. Vista Brokers analysts point out that Athens gave creditors a new reform plan, including budget cuts, and this gives hope that Greece will still receive financial assistance and remain in the euro zone. Amid this the EUR / USD has risen by 1.1% to 1.1148 on Friday after touching the peak of July at around 1.1215.

The pair has stopped growing when comments of Fed's head Janet Yellen were more optimistic than the market had expected. According to Yellen, the Fed is getting ready to raise the key interest rate later this year. However, it did not add the US currency enough strength to finish the week higher against a basket of currencies. The dollar index has fallen on Friday by 0.73% to 95.96.

Recall that at the weekend the Greek question was not decided. According to participants of the summit, Greece needs funding in the amount from 82 to 86 billion euros. The country needs 7 billion transfer until 20 July, and another 20.5 billion - until mid-August.

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Vista Brokers: Chinese Statistics Added Optimism

During Monday's morning trading the European single currency was rising after a slight decrease at the opening. Vista Brokers analysts note that the Asian stock market also strengthens amid statistics on the import and export in China, which was better than expected.

Today it became known that euro zone leaders had met through the night and held a meeting on the new program of financial aid to Greece. The Greek authorities reported received a message that key reforms must be introduced this week to earn the trust of creditors and only then talks about the third program of financial rescue will continue. Note also that in the media there was anecdotal evidence that the European Central Bank has allowed Athens to delay payment on the loan, scheduled for July 20 in the amount of 3.5 billion euros.

\Asian indices are growing today after data on import and export in China, published in the morning, were higher than forecasts, and this led to the increased optimism of investors regards the second world's largest economy. Thus, in June, the balance of foreign trade in China has declined, but exports have risen by 2.8% after falling by 2.5% a month earlier and against the expected growth of only 1.0%. The volume of imports continues to decline. In June the figure has dropped by 6.1%, but compared with the expected decline of 15.5% and a fall of 17.6% in May, the data can be regarded as positive.

Amid this the main Japanese Nikkei index has risen by 1.6%. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, has increased by 0.8%. Recall that last week the Asian stock market was supported by additional measures taken by Beijing, and today's strong data from China only increased optimism. Thus, the index CSI300, covering major Chinese companies, rose 3% after rallying 5.7% last week.

EUR / USD. Technical vs. Fundamental

Fundamental factors (there is still no agreement on Greece) hinder a full formation of a graphic reversal pattern «Head-n-Shoulders». Meanwhile, an upside potential remains.

If purchases were made in accordance with the signal of the graphic "neck line" breakthrough, it is recommended to hold the position.

Volatility: 67%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

USD / CAD. Near Dividing Line

In the course of the next growth wave within boundaries of a wide upward channel quots have reached its upper border. This level is very close to multi-year highs set in March of this year. In the past few days, market participants could not determine their preferences, and, given the very weak news background today, it is doubtful that in the next few hours anything will be decided. At the same time, the technical picture leads to the conclusion, using indicators to determine the future trading direction.

Receiving reversal signals, it is recommended to open short positions with the aim of achieving the opposite border of the channel. A Stop loss should be placed above the high, at 1.2780.

Volatility: 65%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: weak