Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

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Market Pulse 06/26

On Friday, a lot of important data will be published during the Asian trading session. In New Zealand, has already released the trade balance data. Analysts Vista Brokers recommend to pay attention to the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, as well as the speach of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

23:30 *** Consumer Price Index - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Household Spending - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - June (Japan)

Strong impact on the market (JPY). According to forecasts growth of consumer prices in Japan in May was 0.4% after 0.6% the previous month. Growth of the consumer price index in Tokyo is expected at 0.5%.

14:00 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - June (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan allows to estimate the consumer confidence in the current and future state of the economy. It is a very important leading indicator of future spending. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

14:15 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the state of the UK economy may seriously affect the dynamics of the pound, because on their basis market participants will draw conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.

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Vista Brokers: Calm before the Storm

On Thursday, trading in EUR / USD was restrained amid expectations of the result of Greece's negotiations with international creditors. Vista Brokers analysts say that because of the situation, which may result with a default of the country in the near future, in financial markets therewas a tense silence - the calm before the storm. Periodically, markets were showing signs of excitement after another appeared news on the progress of negotiations.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting published during the day statistics, most of which, however, traders left unattended. During the European trading session in Germany was released leading index of consumer climate for July. The index fell to the level of 10.1 from the level of 10.2 in June, as expected.

Later in the United States was released the data on unemployment claims. For the reporting week the number of applications has increased by 3000, which coincided with the forecast. The number of counting claims has increased, while analysts had expected a decline. The core PCE price index also came in line with forecasts, and changes in the level of personal spending was slightly better than expected (0.9% vs. 0.7%). The level of personal incoms of Americans has risen in May by 0.5% against the expected 0.6%.

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USD / JPY. Thinking about Causes and Effects

Launched breakthrough of the "triangle" upper border went nowhere - market players continue to be cautious, and they really have reasons for it. It so happened that not only and not so much Greeks are interested in the situation in their country, as investors around the world who are used to keep money in a quiet location on the occurrence of such severe cases like this. The yen, together with gold and all sorts of "risk-free" government bonds (we think that there are no such bonds, but so they say) has traditionally been used as one of these safe-havens. So, we wait... Recall that tonight was published the inflation data for Japan (perhaps this is the key data regards the country in recent years) - value was above expectations. What does it mean? Most likely, that the fight against deflation give some results, which means it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan in the near future will think about the expansion of the asset repurchase program, which has driven the yen on thirteen-year lows. And it seems that this is not what Japanese officials want.

We do not recommend to enter the market today, waiting for fundamental changes.

Volatility 61%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

GBP / USD. Market Players Sat on Fence

The British seems to have found some support near the support line and the 38.2% Fibo level of the upward momentum in June. Today, we do not expect any important publications, which means that the trend will continue rather than change its direction.

Anyway, it is advisable to be careful when trying to buy from current levels - in any case the protective stop should be placed close.

Volatility: 65%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

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Vista Brokers: Oil Market Is still Calm

On Friday, oil contracts are traded in a narrow range as investors' views are still facing to the negotiations on Greece. Vista Brokers analysts note that quotes are about the same level for quite a long time, so that sooner or later this calm will surely turn into the storm. It is not clear just – where it will be directed.

Today during the Asian session August futures for Brent have risen by 19 cents to $ 63.39 per barrel, ending the previous session lower by 29 cents. WTI futures for August delivery have fallen by 6 cents today to $ 59.64 per barrel, while on Thursday the contract ended the day lower by 57 cents.

Experts believe that the assumption of the imminent change in the dynamics of the oil market can be drawn from the technical picture, which is now formed on the market. Since the beginning of the year Brent quotes are in a classic upward channel, borders of which the price will leave sooner or later and as a result it can be formed a strong movement, downward or upward.

From a fundamental point of view quotes must get a driver to leave the channel, for example, a decision on Iran's nuclear program. This question is recently a bit faded into the background – everybody is watching on Greece. But the question on Iran, in theory, should be definitively settled next week. Most likely, sanctions will be lifted from the country, and over the next month Tehran would increase exports, which can lead to a decrease in oil prices. Another scenario is also still possible - sanctions may remain in force, and it will support quots.

Do not forget about the correlation of oil with the US dollar, a position of which in the international currency market have an impact on all instruments, measured in dollars. Not far off is September, when many market players expect the first Fed rate hike, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar and, as a consequence, on the oil market.

Vista Brokers: Rising Dollar Pressures Gold

During the Friday's European trading session, gold has fallen in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the precious metals market was under pressure after Thursday's strong statistics from the US has supported the dollar. Experts also remind us that the picture of the market can change dramatically at any time, as players are closely watching negotiations on Greece.

Today on Comex gold futures for August delivery have plunged by 0.12% to $ 1,170.50 per troy ounce. A day earlier, these futures had ended the day at $ 1,171.80 (-0.09%).

Recall that the dollar has received support in the currency market after the release of information that the personal income in the US has grown by 0.5% in May (coincided with the forecast), and the level of spending – by 0.9% (the forecast was 0.7%).

As for the other traded metals, silver futures for July delivery have tumbled today by 1.25% to $ 15,610 per ounce, while copper for July contract have increased by 0.51% to $ 2.637 per pound.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

A market fluctuations amplitude continues to decline, but this is not a reason to relax, because at any time we may reach some data (for example, regards Greece), which will force market participants to activate sharply. In the meantime, we have the conditional stop-order at 1178.07 - the current value of the red Alligator line.

Volatility: 28%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

After the nearest fractal down level crossing the pending order to sale from 123.28 has activated. Thus, the decline does not have the continuation yet, and we have no additional signals. Anyway, we are prepared to act, because the current price is close to Alligator's teeth, so the position may be closed soon.

Volatility: 60%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The EUR/USD market remains calm. The position to sale is still relevant, despite of the red Alligator's line closure, closing above which would be a signal to leave the market. During the last 24 hours there was no additional signals.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We have fixed a result on the short position from 1.5803 with a small profit at 1.5742. The range of fluctuations is currently limited with levels of the nearest fractals (where we have our breakthrough orders). The distance between them is near a figure, and it is not too much, due to the last months increased volatility level.

Volatility: 66%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 06/29

Week starting in the foreign exchange market will not be too busy. In the euro zone, Germany and Spain will be published preliminary index of consumer prices for June, and later in the US will be released the data on pending home sales. The market is still focused on the situation in Greece, which has not been able to negotiate with creditors on the weekend, therefore, it will likely continue to ignore the publication.

7:00 ** Preliminary Consumer Price Index - June (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has declined by 0.1%.

8:30 ** Net Lending to Individuals - May (UK)
8:30 ** Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)
9:30 ** MPC Member Martin Weale Speaks - May (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Analysts expect fairly good data on these indicators. Acceleration of the net loans dynamics reflects the improvement in lending, and promises the consumer spending growth. The number of approved applications for a mortgage loans is an interest, since it not only informs about the "health" of the housing market, but also about the situation in relation to lending activity.

12:00 *** Preliminary Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)
12:00 *** Preliminary Harmonized Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has increased by 0.1%.

14:00 ** Pending Home Sales - May (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changing in the volume of outstanding transactions with real estate. It is an early indicator of the activity of the US housing market.

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Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Finished the Hard Week with Decline

On Friday, the euro has fallen against all the major competitors in Forex. Vista Brokers analysts note that at the end of the week the EUR / USD has dropped by 1.74%. All over the week, views of market participants were glued to negotiations of Greece with international lenders, which have not been successful finished.

All possible terms of negotiations on Greece due to expire on Tuesday, when the country has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund. Without the agreement on the resumption of financial aids program to Athens will not be able to make this payment, which will mean a default.

On Saturday, parties have not been able to conclude negotiations. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that on July 5 the country holds a referendum, the results of which will decide whether to agree to the "troika" demands. Tsipras suggested lenders to extend the program until the referendum, however, euro zone finance ministers refused to do so. The European Central Bank meanwhile continues to supply liquidity to Greek banks, but on Saturday, representatives of the regulator said that they are monitoring the situation and may at any time change the decision.

Vista Brokers: Kuroda Told about BOJ Plans Regards Inflation

On Monday, comments of the Bank of Japan's head Haruhiko Kuroda were published. The BOJ governor has gave them at an annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. Vista Brokers analysts note that Kuroda hopes to achieve the inflation target in the first half of fiscal 2016 (April-September).

Recall that recently the consumer nflation in Japan has returned to almost zero growth, and the head of the central bank calls it "the temporary influence of low oil prices.". Last week came the latest data on consumer price indexes for May that showed the increase in the consumer price index by 0.5% compared to 0.4% and the growth of the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy by 0.4% in line with the forecast.

Kuroda also said that there are many risks that could prevent achievement of the inflation target by the target date. The economic situation in the world is now very tense, especially strongly influenced by geopolitical factors - he said.

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Vista Brokers: European Stock Markets Decline

On Monday, volatility in stock markets is increased. Vista Brokers analysts note that financial market participants expect that Greece will become the first country to come out of the euro zone. The talks with the country's international creditors, which continued over the weekend, did not produce results - the situation is aggravated with every passing day.

Today the European Central Bank has announced that it would stop supplying liquidity to Greek banks, forcing Athens to close banks to avoid a collapse. The international payment system Western Union has closed its Greek branch at least until the end of the week, prohibiting the movement of funds both in the country and out of it. On July 5 the country will hold a referendum that will show the population's attitude to international creditors' demands. Until that time, probably the country's financial system will be paralyzed.

Also note that the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker said he expects that there will be 19 members in the euro zone. So, the current scenario causes investors to lose their last hopes that at the last moment lenders temper justice with mercy and save Greece. Tomorrow Athens must pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund and the refusal of the payment will be considered as a default.

On Monday, the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 has shown the greatest day decline since 2011. The yield on German 10-year bonds today has fallen by 12.93% to the lowest level since June 3 - 0.707%. The yield on Greek bonds has jumped by 33.74% to the highest level since December 2012 - 14.54%. Also the yield of government bonds in Italy, Spain and Portugal has risen. The German Dax stock index has fallen by 3.8%, the French CAC 40 – by 3.9%, the British FTSE – by 2%, the Italian and Spanish markets have dropped by an average 4%.

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Market Pulse 06/30

Tuesday is more or less full of important publications, many of which the market will ignore because of Greece. Interesting statistics will be released in the UK, Canada, USA, New Zealand.

1:00 ** ANZ Business Confidence - June (New Zealand)
*** Global Dairy Trade Price Index - June (New Zealand)

Strong impact on the market (NZD). The source does not indicate the exact time of publication. The global diary trade price index reflects changes in prices of dairy products. These products make up a significant proportion of New Zealand's exports, so the dynamics of their prices directly affects the NZD.

7:00 ** KOF Economic Barometer - June (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). The index takes into consideration 219 variables. The growth is favorable for the currency.

07:55 ** Unemployment Change - June (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Rate - June (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency - June (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that the number of unemployed in Germany in the reporting period has decreased by 5,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged - 6.4%.

8:30 *** Current Account - Q1 (UK)
8:30 ** Final GDP - Q1 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The balance of payments includes the results of the movement of goods and services as well as capital inflows and outflows. The growth or the forecast exceeding is favorable for the currency.

8:40 *** RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks - June (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). Comments of Stevens as the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia may seriously affect the Australian dollar, especially if diverge significantly from market expectations.

9:00 ** Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Core CPI - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Unemployment Rate - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that the consumer price index in June in the euro zone has risen by 0.2%. The indicator is taken into account in the monetary policy of the ECB, as well as the unemployment rate. It is expected that in June the rate will remain the same.

12:30 *** GDP - April (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The indicator reflects the GDP growth during the previous month. The most comprehensive indicator of the economy. The increase or acceleration of growth are favorable for the currency.

13:45 ** Chicago PMI - June (USA)
14:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Expectations for both indicators are optimistic. Analysts predict that the index of purchasing managers in Chicago in June rose, as well as the indicator of consumer confidence.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Rose after SNB Intervention

On Monday, the single currency has rebounded sharply from reached lows and started an upward movement against the US dollar and other competitors in the foreign exchange market. Vista Brokers analysts note that the driver for growth was the intervention of the Swiss National Bank. The euro continued to rise despite the fact that the crisis in Greece continues to worsen.

Recall that after the weekend international creditors has not approved the reform plan, provided by Athens, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced that on July 5 in the country will be held a referendum. From today, the country's banks do not operate - the government was forced to close access to deposits, to avoid the shock of their mass withdrawal. Theoretically, the European Central Bank continues to provide liquidity to Greek banks, but in fact the country's financial system is paralyzed before the referendum. Amid the Greek crisis worsening, European stock markets were down on Monday, while the yield on bonds of the euro zone countries has grown.

The single currency was prevented from a new round of falling with the fact that on Monday morning the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the central bank has taken intervention to weaken the franc against the euro.

Recently, due to the Greek crisis, market participants actually ignore the statistics. However, recall that the data on pending home sales in the US has showed an increase in May to a maximum of 2006.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Drops amid Default in Greece

On Tuesday, oil futures are traded at three-week lows. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the pressure on the "black gold" has a culmination of the situation in Greece, which has brought uncertainty and excitement into all financial markets. Also, oil traders are awaiting the outcome of talks on Iran's nuclear program and the recent data on crude oil stockpiles in the United States.

At the beginning of the European trading session on Tuesday on ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have risen by 0.08% to $ 62.05 per barrel. Yesterday, these futures have reached the lowest level since June 5 at $ 61.35 before ending the day at $ 62.01 per barrel (-1.98%).

Crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange have lost 0.2%, dropping to $ 58.22 per barrel. A day before futures also have touched the lowest level since June 5 - $ 58.33 per barrel (-2.18%). The spread between Brent and WTI consists $ 3.83 per barrel compared with $ 3.68 at the close of trading on Monday.

Greece's default and the possible exit from the euro zone casts doubt on the very existence of the euro zone, the stability of its currency, the existence of a system of international loans and so on. The state of the banking system of the country is now very difficult. The population has no access to their deposits - financial institutions are closed, international payment systems do not work, the European Central Bank has stopped supplying liquidity.

Recall that the period within which Athens had to pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund, expires today, but the agreement with the "troika" of creditors (ECB, EU and IMF) to resume the program of assistance has not been achieved. A technical default in Greece has already come, but the situation may change after the referendum, which will be held in the country on July 5. If the Greeks decide that it is better to accept the claims of creditors to resume funding, negotiations will continue. If the majority vote against, the more likely the country will leave the euro zone.

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Vista Brokers: Sentiment in US Stock Market Has Improved

On Tuesday, Dow and S & P 500 futures have risen, rebounding from lows of October 2014, reached on the eve amid the crisis in Greece. Vista Brokers analysts say that sentiment in the US stock market has changed - investors are hoping that in the last few hours that remain before the default of Greece, international lenders will take some action to save the situation.

Recall that today Athens must pay the International Monetary Fund 1.6 billion euros, and earlier the Greek authorities stated that they have no funds for payment. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras refused to accept a proposal of creditors to continue financing in exchange for the continuation of tough reforms.

The S & P 500 e-minis has risen by 9.25 points or 0.45%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis – by 14 points or 0.32%, Dow e-minis - by 62 points or 0.35%.

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Market Pulse 07/01

On Wednesday, many countries will publish manufacturing PMI data. The greatest attention of traders can attract such indicators as ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM manufacturing PMI.

1:00 *** Manufacturing PMI - June (China)
1:00 ** Non-Manufacturing PMI - June (China)

Strong impact on the market. Statistics from China often affects Australian and Canadian currencies, as well as the commodities market, as China is the largest consumer of various natural resources. It is expected that the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector has risen in June.

1:30 *** Building Approvals - May (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). Building approvals changing. Stronger data in comparison with the previous one or the forecast are favorable for the currency.

7:15 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Spain)
7:45 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Italy)
7:50 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (France)
7:55 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Germany)
8:00 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for these indexes are not too optimistic - analysts expect the decline (Spain, Italy), or the same level (France, Germany, the euro zone).

8:30 *** Manufacturing PMI - June (UK)
9:30 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
9:30 ** Bank of England Financial Stability Report - July (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). These may strongly affect the dynamics of the pound. It is expected that the purchasing managers' index in June has risen. At the moment, it is above the level of 50 that is considered to be development. The driving force for the British currency could be comments Mark Carney, from which traders make conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.

12:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - June (USA)
14:00 *** ISM Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts' forecasts for these two important indicators are optimistic. Positive data could push the dollar to rise, as would support expectations of the Fed's rate hike.

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Vista Brokers: Greece Requested New Bailout Program

On Tuesday, the euro was declining against the dollar and other major currencies in Forex amid a crisis in Greece. Vista Brokers analysts say that a few hours before the announcement of default (due to failure to pay the International Monetary Fund), Athens has asked the European Stability Mechanism a request for a new program of financial assistance for the next two years.

Without external support the country will come to a financial catastrophe - Athens is unable to pay its numerous debts. But financial markets are more concerned with the way in which it will affect the stability of the euro zone and the single currency. The so-called "Greek saga" is far from the final - on Saturday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has announced that next Sunday, the country will hold a referendum on the implementation of international lenders' requirements.

In contrast to the euro zone, the situation in the US economy continues to improve, and this is reflected in the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, released yesterday. In June, the figure rose from 95.6 to 101.4 against 97.1. In contrast, the Chicago PMI index, published a little earlier, was weaker than expected: 49.4 vs. 50.2 after 46.2 in the previous month.

Vista Brokers: Asian Stocks Rose after Japanese Statistics

Shares in the Asian region shave tarted the first day of the month with a rally - during the Asian trading session, the major indexes were risen. Vista Brokers analysts note that investors were inspired by data published early in the morning in Japan, most of which were positive.

Japan's Nikkei 225 has increased today during the regional trading by 0.22%, Shanghai Composite - by 0.30%, S & P / ASX 200 – by 0.66% and the Hang Seng index - by 1.09%.

So, on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday were published Tankan indexes, reflecting the situation in the industrial sector of Japan in Q2. The Tankan manufacturing index was better than expected: 15 against 12. The large manufacturers outlook index for the 3rd quarter also exceeded the expectations: 16 against 14. A number of other, less important indices were weaker than expected. Early in the morning on Wednesday was released data on the PMI index for the manufacturing of Japan in June, which has increased from 49.9 to 50.1, while analysts had expected the index to remain at the same level.

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Vista Brokers: Greek Saga Continues

The situation in Greece continues to have a significant impact on all financial markets. Vista Brokers analysts say that on Wednesday it became known that Athens had agreed on almost all the conditions of international creditors. The Financial Times has published information according to which the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was ready to accept a reform plan with only minor changes. This gives hope that the "troika" will approve a new program of financial aid, which Greece had requested on Tuesday, a few hours before a technical default (non-payment of 1.6 billion euros to IMF).

European stock market and bonds of peripheral euro zone countries reacted to the news with the growth. Thus, FTSEurofirst 300 index has increased by 1.5%, while the Euro STOXX - by 2.1%. The yield on German 10-year bonds has risen by 4.3 basis points to a day high of 0.82%. The yield on similar bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal have declined by an average of 7 basis points to 2.22%, 2.25% and 2.90% respectively.

Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall against the dollar and other competitors. At the time of writing it is at $ 1.1105. The decline was aggravated after the International Monetary Fund officially declared that Greece had failed to make payment, so now it is included in the list of debtors and will not receive funding until paying off the debt. Thus, Greece became the first developed country in the list of debtors IMF, where previously were only non-developed countries, such as Zimbabwe.

Hope for a new loan for Athens still exists - as mentioned above, the country has requested a new bailout program and debt restructuring, but did it too late, so that the payment of the IMF has turned out to be expired. On Sunday the country will hold a referendum, after which, perhaps, the negotiations will continue. In any case, Greece - is a constant source of inconvenience in financial markets since the crisis situation casts doubt on the stability of the euro zone and its currency.

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Market Pulse 02.07

On Thursday, a lot of important statistics will be published during the US trading session. Data will attract investors' attention - all statistics published in the United States has an impact on terms in which the market expects the Fed's interest rate hike.

1:30 *** Trade Balance - May (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency.

8:30 *** Construction PMI - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the construction. It shows an improvement or deterioration in the previous month. The situation in the construction sector in Britain is closely monitored, so the publication affect markets.

11:30 ** ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The report is published in 4 weeks after the meeting of the ECB monetary policy. It contains speeches of the Governing Council members.

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - June (USA)
12:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - June (USA)
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Counting Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - June (USA)
12:30 ** Participation Rate - June (USA)
12:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The US trading session will be very volatile, as the data on the labor market are one of the main targets for the Fed. Note that experts expect a decline in the unemployment rate and the unemployment claims number. Forecasts for not all indicators are optimistic, but if most of data are positive, it could support the dollar.

13:30 ** RBC Manufacturing PMI - June (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). The index of purchasing managers in manufacturing. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

15:10 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - July (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Draghi comments can give hints of further actions of the ECB and the sentiment in the central bank's management, so they are important for the market.

Vista Brokers: Dollar Rose after Strong Statistics

On Wednesday, the dollar has strengthened after during the American trading session in the USA was published a portion of strong statistics. Vista Brokers analysts say that the tension over Greece in markets remains, but positive data from the United States set up investors that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates.

So, an independent organization ADP has reported yesterday that the US non-farm private employment rose by 237,000 in June instead of the expected 219,000, and more modest 203,000 in the previous month. The May figure was revised with increase - earlier ADP had reported about 201,000. Also better than expected was ISM manufacturing index, showing activity in the US manufacturing sector. In June, the index has risen from 52.8 to 53.5 vs. 53.2.

Euro was mainly declining during the day, despite the fact that European stocks and bonds were rising after it became known that the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had agreed with almost all the lenders' conditions. Yesterday, Tsipras sent new proposals for reforms as part of a request for a new program of financial bailout. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that negotiations will not continue until the results of the referendum are known. The referendum will take place in Greece on Sunday.

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Vista Brokers: Return of Iran Will not Have Material Impact on Oil Market

Talks on Iran's nuclear program, which should have been completed on Tuesday, were extended until July 7. Probably, the next round of negotiations will be the last, and international sanctions for Tehran will be lifted. These sanctions did not give the country an opportunity to participate the global oil market in full force. Vista Brokers analysts note that oil market participants were long speculating on the theme of sanctions lifting, but in fact, the country will need a long time to regain lost ground.

Recall that sanctions prohibited the export of crude oil from Iran in most developed countries, as well as foreign investment in local gas, oil and petrochemical industries. A preliminary agreement on the lifting of the ban was signed in April 2015, and since then the "Six" (USA, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom, Germany) and Tehran discuss the details. It is likely that Iran will reduce the number of centrifuges at two-thirds, but the country still wants to engage in research on the study of uranium and insists on it. The other side insists that this area of ​​research should be under the full external control as well as military targets in Iran.
Despite the tough stance of "six", Tehran slowly but surely inferiors, so it is likely that a long-term conflict will be really resolved soon. In this case, Iran will return to the list of full members of the oil market and everything will depend on how quickly the country will use the additional capacity to return to the onetime volumes. The Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has pointed that the country will immediately increase oil production to the past level after the lifting of sanctions.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran in May was producing 2.85 million barrels per day, 1.4 million of which was exported. In early 2012, before stringent financial sanctions against Iran were imposed at the global level, the export volume was 2.2 million barrels per day.

Analysts insist that Iran will not be able to quickly rehabilitate the oil industry, which is under sanctions for more than 10 years. Probably, it will take about 1.5-2 years with a steady stream of foreign investmen to the oil industry. That is why deliveries from Iran will not immediately affect the oil market, in contrast to the speculation on this subject.

GBP / USD. Bears Get Advantage prior to US Labor Market Data

Bulls, who were keeping a sufficiently important support level for several days (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the "cable" growth in June), have finally retreated in the face of fundamental factors. Thus, according to Markit, the manufacturing PMI in the UK was the lowest since April 2013, while the Bank of England financial stability report paid attention to risks associated with the possible default of Greece regards financial markets. Thus, the Old Lady has even announced about a joint plan of the Ministry of Finance and the European authorities on any emergency. Amid this we have a breakthrough of local lows, which means the continuation of a downward correction started from June 18.

Today, the Ministry of Labour will report regarding the US employment situation, which traditionally would have a huge impact on the balance of power in the market. Given the current technical picture, it is recommended to place a pending breakthrough order at yesterday's lows with the target of 1.5560 (50% retracement of the aforementioned upward wave) and then 61.8% (1.5470).

Volatility: 46%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: strong

GOLD. Readiness for Action №1

It seems that sellers are willing to storm the nearest support level of 1162 (the lowest level since March 20), which attracts attention, given the expected today statisticson employment in the US agricultural sector. Now the market feels enormous pressure, given the situation with Greece in the context of the upcoming referendum and the fate of the country in the context of membership in the euro zone. It is also a very high degree of investor expectations of arguments in favor of a scenario in relation to the date of the beginning of the Fed rate hike cycle. This gives reason to expect in the near future a sharp rise in volatility and strong market movements, which can be used by traders in the gold market, traditionally sensitive to investors' sentiment towards risk changing.

It is recommended to enter a short position on a breakthough of 1162 with a target of 1142 (low since December 2014), to be prepared to respond quickly to the situation during the American trading session.

Volatility: 26%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong

[Guest Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/03

On Friday, in many countries will be published index of business activity in the service sector and the PMI composite index, which usually have an average impact on the market. In the US today markets do not work because of Independence Day, so liquidity during the US trading session will be low.

1:30 *** Retail Sales - May (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). The rate growth (forecast exceeding) reflects higher consumer activity that supports the currency, suggesting a tight monetary policy in the future.

1:35 ** Services PMI - June (Japan)
1:35 ** PMI Composite - June (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In Japan indexes are expected to decline in June.

1:45 ** HSBC Services PMI - June (China)
1:45 ** HSBC PMI Composite - June (China)

Moderate impact on the market. The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In China indexes are expected to increase in June.

7:15 ** Services PMI - June (Spain)
7:15 ** PMI Composite - June (Spain)
7:45 ** Services PMI - June (Italy)
7:45 ** PMI Composite - June (Italy)
7:50 ** Services PMI - June (France)
7:50 ** PMI Composite - June (France)
7:55 ** Services PMI - June (Germany)
7:55 ** PMI Composite - June (Germany)
8:00 ** Services PMI - June (euro zone)
8:00 ** PMI Composite - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts suggest that the average performance of the services sector in the euro zone in June, will remain at the level of May. In Spain a slight decrease is expected, and in Italy - a slight increase. In the current tense situation, the data are unlikely to have an impact on the market, except in the case of strongly diverge from forecasts.

8:30 *** Services PMI - June (UK)
8:30 ** PMI Composite - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In the UK indexes are expected to increase in June.

09:00 ** Retail Sales - May (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The rate growth (forecast exceeding) reflects higher consumer activity that supports the currency.

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Vista Brokers: US Labor Market Statistics Disappointed Traders

On Thursday, markets were looking forward to the US trading session and the US labor market release. Vista Brokers analysts note that the published statistics did not meet traders' expectations - most of indicators were below expectations.

This has given the euro the opportunity to recover against the US dollar. Recall that this Sunday Greece will hold a referendum, the results of which can significantly affect the dynamics of financial markets. Thus, EUR / USD finished the day with a small plus (+ 0.30%) at $ 1.1086. Prior to that, a couple was traded in the range of 1.1033 - 1.1121.

Thus, statistics on the US labor market did not meet expectations, except only the unemployment rate, which actually fell in June, and even as much as 0.2%, not 0.1% as expected. Non-farm payrolls rose by 223,000, rather than the 231 000. The data on changes in private and industrial sectors also were worse than expected. Disappointing was data on average hourly wage, which has started to grow only in the last few months, but in June the growth was zero. And as a control shot ... the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the reporting week by 10 000 to 281 000.

Relatively weak data on the labor market could again move the timeline of Fed rate hike, which market participants expect in September. Last month, the Fed chief Janet Yellen said that the central bank wants to see a stable growth of GDP, inflation and wages before taking measures to tighten monetary policy.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Falls after Yesterday's Baker Hughes Data

During the Asian session of Friday, oil was falling in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that recent data from the United States fall short of expectations about the decline of oil production in the country. In addition, investors are showing excitement prior to a referendum in Greece, the results of which are quite unpredictable and can greatly affect the dynamics of financial markets. Today, on the New York Mercantile Exchange futures for WTI crude oil for August delivery were down by 0.66% to $ 56.56 per barrel.

After the past few months, production volumes and stocks in the US have shown a steady decline, last week the number of drilling rigs according to Baker Hughes has increased as well as crude oil inventories according to EIA. As you can see, hopes that the oversupply in the oil market will decline due to the narrowing of the US market, are not met.

So, according to the Baker Hughes report, released yesterday, last week, the number of drilling rigs operating in the US has risen by 12 to 640, breaking the 29-week cycle of decline (since the beginning of December 2014). A week earlier, the number of rigs has fallen to its lowest level since August 2010 - 628.

Even more unpleasant surprise for traders was the fact that, according to EIA (Information Agency under the US Energy Department) over the past week crude oil inventories in the country have increased by 2.4 million barrels, after 8 consecutive weeks of steadily declining. After the publication of this information, WTI crude futures have lost more than 4%, dropping below $ 57 a barrel.

It should be noted that forecasts have assumed decline in stocks by 2.5 million barrels, so that the actual data differs a lot. Currently, crude oil inventories in the United States are at 465.4 million barrels - the highest level in 80 years.

GBP / USD. US Data Keep Investors Honest

Long-awaited data on employment in the United States, contrary to expectations, did not make any visible change in the balance of market forces. However, this is more due to the today's holiday (in the United States is celebrated Independence Day), and that the main reaction (based on the published statistics, it is not in a favor of the US currency) should be the next week. So, we have an achievement of a 50% correction in GBP / USD from the upward impulse in June, as well as the proximity of the support line of a higher temporal scale, which currently connects the April and the June local lows.

It is recommended to wait for a rebound from current levels (it is desirable to confirm it with trend indicators) before you consider cautious buying in the range of the resistance line of the current short-term downtrend. It is likely, that some movements we will see today, because in 08.30 GMT Markit will publish the level of business activity in the UK services sector.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

USD / CAD bounces from the line of resistance

Looney in recent days has lost ground against the US dollar, the strength of which, in turn, was derived from expectations of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike (then the US would become the first who tightens the monetary policy among developed economies). Another factor that continues to put pressure on the Canadian economy (and with it on the national currency) remain low oil prices - a key export item of the country. On the other hand, we have at the moment the achievement of the upward trend channel line of the last couple of weeks, and at the same time the growth of pessimism in relation to the US dollar after yesterday's relatively weak employment data in the country.

The current situation suggests a corrective USD / CAD downward movement (that we can use) to the range of the support line of the above-mentioned short-term ascending channel with possible subsequent resumption of growth.

Volatility: 74%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak