Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Market is in a Brown Study

Correction continued - bears have easily pushed through a first line of bulls' defense, located at a 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of decline started at the beginning of this year and ended in mid-March. At the moment sellers are contained with a 50% correction, but it may fall soon. Today preliminary inflation data for the current month are expected to be published in the euro zone, and it may affect, in particular, on a balance of power in the gold market, if expectations will differ much from the forecast (-0.3% y / y).

In this situation, it is not recommended to act actively, since there are no necessary preconditions for purchases yet (no evidence of rebound). It is also premature to sell, since a current wave of reduction has not been turned in a trend.

EUR / USD. In Anticipation of Inflation Data

A situation in this pair is still unstable – from above a development of an upward correction is limited by a resistance line of a long-term downtrend, as well as by a 61.8% correctional Fibo level of a wave of decline in February-March, while from below bears are restrained in the last two weeks by a short-term support line. In the next few hours a Statistical Service of the euro zone is to publish data on consumer price index, which should definitely be reflected in the formation of investor sentiment.

This publication will give reason to enter the market, depending on what it would be like. If the data will be lower than expected -0.3%, it will put pressure on quotes, since it would mean that a volume of the ECB's asset purchase program could potentially be higher than announced 60 billions per month. More positive data will support bulls.

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Vista Brokers: On Monday Euro Remained under Pressure

The single currency declined amid worries about Greece, while the dollar rose against its major counterparts on expectations that the Fed is planning to raise rates this year. Vista Brokers analysts point out that as a result of negotiations with creditors Athens may receive financial aid in the amount of 240 billion euros, but there are some doubts on this subject. Indeed, the list of reforms has not yet been approved, and lenders, in particular, Germany, said that it is needed to be improved again. Investors doubt whether negotiations will finish before mid-April, when the Greek treasury funds run out.

It is worth noting that the decline of the euro was limited with positive currency fundamental background. So, confidence in the economy of the euro zone rose to a maximum of July 2011, and preliminary data on consumer price index in Germany was better than expected. The pressure on the single currency has a program of quantitative easing, which was recently launched by the ECB. This is a long-term factor of pressure on the euro, as the difference in monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed is too obvious.

On Monday, the US dollar also took a lead from comments of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen sounded during Friday's speech. Market participants have concluded from the speech that the Fed still intends to raise rates this year. Amid this the dollar index rose, moving away from the reached last week lows. The US dollar rose against the euro, yen and other major competitors.

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Vista Brokers: Iran Sanctions Rescinding will Increase Oil Market Supply

On Tuesday, oil continues to decline after Iran and six world powers (the Great Britain, China, Russia, the USA, France and Germany) have announced that negotiations on a nuclear program draw to an end. A deadline for signing the agreement between Iran and the "six" is July 1, 2015, but the prior agreement must be reached now.

Vista Brokers analysts note the high probability that in consequence of this deal Tehran will be obliged to perform only peaceful nuclear research, and major world powers will cancel a number of international sanctions. Sanctions were applied to Iran, when there were suspicions that the country is making a nuclear weapon, and they involve, including, strong oil exports limits.

If the embargo will be removed, the market supply of oil will increase. Especially because during the long period of sanctions, Iran has accumulated a lot of inventories to be released into the market. It is considered that in a seaway are stored 30 million barrels. In addition, experts note that in the first 3-6 months after the lifting of sanctions, Iran could increase production by 500,000 barrels a day, and during the year – by 700,000.

The possibility of the oil market supply increasing puts pressure on the "black gold". Thus, Brent crude on Tuesday fell to $ 55.94 a barrel, continuing Monday's decline. WTI fell to around $ 48.12 per barrel. A stronger U.S. dollar also weighed on oil prices. The greenback rose against major competitors and forced to fall commodity market after the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen on Friday confirmed that the central bank plans to increase rates this year.

Note that in the decline of oil is limited by a military conflict that Saudi Arabia and its allies have begun in Yemen. Once the country has caused the first air strikes on Yemen, oil started to rally. But then investors calmed down, realizing that major oil transportation arteries, especially the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, are not in danger. As a result, oil prices rather quickly returned to their previous levels, but at any moment this factor can again become decisive in the market.

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Market Pulse 03/31

Tuesday's economic calendar is full of important publications, which will be released in the euro zone, the UK, Canada, the USA, New Zealand. Market volatility will be high. The strongest influence on the movement of currency pairs can provide data on inflation in the euro zone and the indicator of consumer confidence in the United States.

6:00 ** Retail Sales - February (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). In February, analysts expect a decrease of the index by 0.9% after a significant growth in the previous month. Weak data could put pressure on the euro.

7:55 ** Unemployment Change - March (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Rate - March (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency - March (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Predictions about the labor market data in Germany are rather optimistic. Experts expect th unemployment change decrease by 10 000 and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.4%.

8:30 *** Current Account - Q4 (UK)
8:30 ** Final GDP - Q4 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Current account index includes the results of goods and services fluctuations, as well as inflow and outflow of capital. Growth or exceeding the forecast is favorable for the currency. With regard to the final GDP data, investors do not expect any surprises, but everything is possible.

9:00 *** Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate - March (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Core CPI - March (euro zone)
9:00 ** Unemployment Rate - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that the inflation in the euro zone has fallen by 0.3% in March. Unemployment is projected to remain at a high level of 11.2%. If the data will be worse than expected, this may have a negative impact on the euro. While an opposite scenario is also possible.

12:00 ** FOMC members Jeffrey Lacker Speaks - March (USA)
12:50 ** FOMC members Dennis Lockhart Speaks - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Comments of FOMC members can affect the dynamics of the greenback, as they can reflect sentiments of the Committee. So that market participants keep track of these data.

12:30 *** GDP - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts expect that in January, the Canadian economy grew slightly weaker than the previous month - by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annualized one.

13:45 ** Chicago PMI - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The index of business activity in the Chicago area. Values ​​above 50 reflect the increase to the previous month, below – the reduction. It is expected that the rate will grow to 52.5.

14:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is based on a survey of households regards the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its development in the future. The growth of the rate reflects the confidence in the economy, favorably affecting the currency.

*** Global Dairy Trade Price Index - March (New Zealand)

Strong impact on the market (NZD). This indicator has a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar, as dairy products loom a large part of New Zealand's exports. Analysts expect a significant reduction in the index in March.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Recovered amid Dollar Weakness

On Tuesday, statistics from the USA was multidirectional. The US Commerce Department data showed the most significant trade deficit in nearly 7 years. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing index has shown better than expected results. Vista Brokers analysts note that the weakness of the dollar gave the single European currency a possibility to recover.

The US trade deficit in March rose to 51.37 billion - the highest level since October 2008, showing the highest growth over the month since December 1996 (43.1%). Analysts believe that the weak data (the forecast assumed a decline only to 41.2 billion US dollars) may indicate that the country's GDP in the first quarter will show a decline. But the growth in the second quarter of 2015 can neutralize the weak performance in January-March. So it does not affect expectations about the Fed interest rate hike.

Nevertheless, the US stock markets, as well as "treasuries" were down on Tuesday, while the dollar fell against a basket of major currencies. The decline was limited by positive data on the ISM composite index for the non-manufacturing sector. In April, the activity in this sector of the US economy rose from 56.5 to 57.8, although most experts had expected a decline to 56.2.

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Market Pulse 05/06

On Wednesday, in some countries, which are foreign exchange market participants will be published data on business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI index. In China, the index of business activity in the services sector from HSBC has been already published. Australia also has published data on retail sales.

7:15 ** Services PMI - April (Spain)

7:15 ** PMI Composite - April (Spain)

07:45 ** Services PMI - April (Italy)

7:45 ** PMI Composite - April (Italy)

7:50 ** Services PMI - April (France)

7:50 ** PMI Composite - April (France)

7:55 ** Services PMI - April (Germany)

7:55 ** PMI Composite - April (Germany)

8:00 ** Services PMI - April (euro zone)

8:00 ** PMI Composite - April (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that in the euro zone and its major economies, business activity in the services sector rose in April or remained at the March level, so generally forecasts are optimistic. Strong data could support the single currency.

8:30 *** Services PMI - April (UK)

8:30 ** PMI Composite - April (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). It is expected that the activity in the UK services sector fell in April, but it is worth noting that the Purchasing Managers' Index is still at a high level - a value above 50 indicates the improvement of the situation in comparison with the previous period.

9:00 ** Retail Sales - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The increase in retail sales comparing with the previous month (or the excess of the forecast), reflecting higher consumer activity that strengthens the currency. In March, the index is expected to decline mom and to increase yoy.

12:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - April (USA)

12:30 ** Prelim Nonfarm Productivity - Q1 (USA)

12:30 ** Prelim Unit Labor Costs - Q1 (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Portion of the statistics on the US labor market may seriously affect the greenback, as the statistics on employment is one of benchmarks for the Fed, which is expected to raise interest rates in the near future. The data is published by ADP before the official statistics and no less often it causes a reaction of the market.

13:15 *** Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks - May (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Yellen's speeches always carry a strong potential impact on the dollar. In the current situation the market expects from the head of the Fed some hawkish signals to confirm that the central bank will raise the rate soon. The absence of these signals may weaken the dollar.

14:00 *** Ivey PMI - April (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). The index is based on a survey of purchasing managers showing improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The growth of the rate of exceeded forecast are favorable for the Canadian dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Brent Updated 2015 High

On Wednesday, rally in the oil market continues, and during morning trading the "black gold" has grown on the average by $1, updating this year highs. Vista Brokers analysts name some current major factors of support for oil. Firstly, it is protests in Libya, because of which has stopped the supply of oil from the port of Zueitina. Secondly, it is the weakness of the US dollar after the release of disappointing trade balance statistics on Tuesday. And thirdly, it is the reduction of oil inventories in the United States.

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil has reached the high of $ 68.30, gaining 78 cents. Previously, the price has updated this year high at $ 68.53. WTI crude oil rose in price by $ 1.08 to $ 61.48. Recall that in April both brands have shown a significant growth (by 20-25%), despite the fact that soon it will be the meeting of OPEC, where it is expected that exporting countries will not take decisions on oil production cuts again.

In Libya Zueitina terminal remained one of the few oil shipped out of the country, where for several years the civil war continues. Now it is closed - competing political forces in Libya are trying to take control of the country's rich oil industry. As they decide who has more rights to power, oil production in Libya was reduced to less than 500 thousand barrels per day, which is only the third part of the volume, which was produced here until the beginning of the war.

Support for oil prices has also a decline of the US dollar, which is down against a basket of major currencies the fourth consecutive week. Yesterday it became known that the US trade deficit in March rose to 51.37 billion - the highest level since October 2008, showing the highest monthly growth from December 1996 (43.1%). This has led to talks about that the US economy in the first quarter of 2015 will show a decline.

Let us dwell on the third supporting factor. Also on Tuesday was released the data on crude oil inventories from API, which showed a decline for the first time this year. So, the last week, US crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels, while analysts had expected the growth by 1.5 million barrels per day. Today, the market is expected for the confirmation of inventories reduction from EIA (official data).

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Vista Brokers: Services Sector Activity Rose in most Euro Zone Countries

On Wednesday, the euro zone has released data on the PMI index for the services sector. Vista Brokers analysts note that in most countries statistics was better than expected, except for the region's largest economy, Germany.

For example, in Spain, the PMI index for the services sector rose in April to 60.3 vs. 57.4, while the composite index increased to 50.6 instead of 50.4. In Italy, the index for the services sector rose to 53.1 vs. 52.1, while the composite index increased to 53.9 instead of the expected 52.7. Activity in the services sector in France in April rose to 51.4, while analysts expected it to remain at the level of March - 50.8. The composite PMI index rose by 0.4 vs. 0.2. Overall, in the euro zone index rose to 54.1 and 53.9 respectively, against forecasts of 53.7 and 53.5.

Analysts had expected German PMI index for services and composite PMI in April to remain at March levels: 54.4 and 54.2, but the index fell to 54.0 and 54.1 respectively. Note that values above 50 are considered as the situation in the services sector improving.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / CAD is at the Crossroads

The pair continues to remain close to the rising trend line, which was started in July of the last year, but this, however, does not give grounds to enter the market yet, because there was no sufficient impulse for purchases. Also recall that current levels of support are reinforced with important corrections - 38.2% of the above-mentioned trend, and 61.8% of the USD / CAD growth in January. It should be noted that today in 14.00 GMT in Canada will be published the index of business activity from business school of Richard Ivey (which may affect the dynamics of the pair for the next couple of days), whereas the coming Friday should be determining. This day will be published data on the labor market in the United States and Canada.

It is recommended to wait for today's data, and if it will be negative, to open long positions with a stop at 1.1940 - the lowest since January 19 and the top of the two-month wave of decline.

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EUR / USD Resumes Growth

After testing a 38.2% Fibonacci correctional level of the wave of growth in the last decade of April, the pair resumed its climb. Prior to the US labor market data, expected on Friday, investors tend to fix results of their long positions that continues to push the greenback down.

It seems that in coming hours euro buyers will be ready to storm the nearest local maximum (1.1289), with the target of 1.1530, corresponding to the bottom level of the declining wave in February and March. However, before the release of Friday's employment data in the United States, it is recommended not to open large positions.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD Fills Cramped in Triangle Boundaries

Today's data on employment in Australia brought mixed feelings to investors, because, on the one hand, in April, the number of employees reduced (!), while the March data were revised with a significantly increase. In the context of the recent RBA interest rate cut and expectations of market players regards further steps of the central bank, any important statistics will influence AUD / USD. Thus, the primary response to the publication, which lasted just a minute, was the fall of the AUD against the dollar by about 30 points, but then bulls quickly took the wheel. Currently quotes are again close to the upper boundary of the graphic figure "expanding triangle", going beyond which will give an important advantage to this or that side.

In our case, AUD / USD consolidation above the reached in April three-month high (0.8075) will mean the opportunity to open long positions. The target of purchases will be the beginning of the descending wave on January 15 at 0.8295.

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USD / JPY Goes back to Mid-Range

The dollar did not have enough momentum to hold above the upper boundary of the "triangle", which caused sales, and now the pair is in the middle of the way to the bottom of this pattern. Sentiment changing that occurred during yesterday's trading, was supported with the negative data on the US employment from ADP, which casted a shadow on prospects of getting strong official data from the Labour Department on Friday.

Anyway, before the release of tomorrow's employment data we should not expect a directional movement, while after the release the best tactic will be to work for a breakthrough of next support (currently it is at 118.47) and resistance levels (120.50).

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Bulls' Disappointment Pressures on US Dollar

On Wednesday, the US currency fell to a two-month low against the euro and was significantly loosing ground against the other competitors. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data on ADP non-farm employment change in the United States in April was disappointing. Put it to a very weak statistics on the trade balance - and we get a new wave of concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates in the near future.

Recall that at the last Fed meeting it has been said that in the first quarter of this year, the US economy faced a slowdown, but this is a temporary phenomenon, and in the second quarter things should get better. But the data is for April and this is the second quarter, but instead of expected 199 000 the number of non-farm employment in the US for the month increased by only 169 thousand. On Friday will be released official data on employment, and usually they are not very different from the ADP information, so the market will be prepared for the worst, in advance laying weak data in the price.

Analysts believe that in order to keep the dollar on the high position which it has achieved due to expectations of Fed rate increasing, bulls need more than just a phantom possibility of this increase. It should be confirmed by the statistics, that the US economy is indeed recovering, and then the central bank will simply have no choice but to tighten the monetary policy.

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Market Pulse 05/07

The main event of the day on Thursday will certainly be parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom, the results of which could affect the fact whether the country will remain a member of the European Union. Australia today has already published a number of data on the labor market, including such important statistics as the unemployment rate and the employment change for April. We also should not forget about the data on unemployment claims in the US, which will be released during the US trading session.

6:00 ** Factory Orders - March (Germany)

6:45 ** Industrial Production - March (France)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that in March, the volume of industrial orders in Germany rose after the previous month decline. The volume of industrial production in France, according to forecasts, should also show a slight increase.

12:30 *** Building Permits - March (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Changing in the volume of permits for housing construction in Canada is an important leading health indicator of the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Strong data could support the currency.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - May (USA)

12:30 ** Counting Claims - April (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). Recently, these data have a significant impact on the the US dollar dynamics. The market takes them into account, since the statistics on the labor market is one of the main landmarks for the Fed.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Market Renewed Subject of OPEC Production Cuts

On Thursday, the oil is under the pressure again. Vista Brokers Analysts say that traders have fixed profits after a long rally in the market. In addition, OPEC once again reminded of themselves. The market expects that at the next meeting exporting countries will leave production quota of "black gold" on the same level.

Recall that from the beginning of the year oil prices rose by about 50% due to lower production in the US, as well as the volatile situation in the Middle East. On Wednesday, prices in oil market rose to this year highs amid the dollar weakness, caused by the negative statistics, as well as inventories decrease in the United States. For the first time in this year, crude oil inventories, according to EIA, were down by 3.9 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing terminal in Oklahoma fell last week by 12 thousand barrels that is rather a lot, given that in recently they have steadily increased.

However, the problem of oversupply in the market has not disappeared, and as soon as geopolitical risks cease to attract the active attention of traders, it is once again coming to the fore. During morning trading, Brent crude oil fell to $ 67.31 per barrel compared to $ 68 per barrel at the close of trading on Wednesday, as well as with a maximum of 2015 at $ 69.63, also reached on Wednesday. WTI fell to $ 60.44 from $ 61 a barrel at the close of the previous session. Note that after the data on the reduction of inventories in the US, this brand of oil rose in price at once by more than $ 2, reaching a high of $ 62.58 a barrel.

Analysts also say that the oil market is beginning to be affected with the approaching meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 5. OPEC representatives have repeatedly expressed their unwillingness to reduce the quota production of the resource, arguing that with the fear of losing market share and injustice of this requirement, only facing these countries, but not the United States and Russia.

At the last meeting the organization left the daily production quota at 30 million barrels per day, while the world price at that time fell almost doubled in comparison with June. At the next meeting the quota will be even less likely reduced, since recently oil prices rebounded. Most likely, for the reduction will traditionally perform Venezuela and Algeria, as well as Iran. The main opponent of such a strategy is Saudi Arabia, which is the leader of the cartel.

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Vista Brokers: Pound Drops prior to UK Parliamentary Elections

Today parliamentary elections started in the UK, and their results could materially affect the pound. Vista Brokers analysts say that prior to the opening of polling stations pound declined, updating session lows. At the time of writing, the election has already started and the British currency continues to fall against the US dollar.

Today's elections will determine the composition of the government and, therefore, a political course that the country will follow the next five years. The peculiarity of these elections is that chances of Conservatives and the Labour Party to win, according to preliminary surveys, are roughly equal. However, if the Conservatives win, the country expects a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union. It shall entail great risks for business and the economy both for the country and the EU as a whole.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD is Back in the Game

After relatively moderate fluctuations observed since the beginning of this week the British currency has sharply reacted to the exit polls results publication, according to which the Conservative Party confidently wins the elections to the House of Commons of the British Parliament. The market reaction was probably caused with the fact that, given the wide margin (316 seats against 239 seats for the Labour Party), it will be not so hard to make decisions for parliamentarians, as the market had expected earlier, given the almost equal chances before the elections. At this time, the pair is at 1.55 (2-months maximum) where it has appeared at night - the growth is estimated more than two and a half figures.

At the same time, bulls, apparently, will be unable to storm the aforementioned level before the publication of official results later today, as well as prior to the data on the US labor market, which is expected during the US session (12.30 GMT). From a technical standpoint, trading goes in the uptrend, but given the strong news background, it is recommended to fix the result of current positions.

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EUR / USD Consolidates near Support Line

The single currency is reducing prior to the expected today employment data release in the United States, having reached the line of the trend support from the beginning of April 23rd.

It is recommended to fix current results on open positions before the the said statistics on the labor market release. It is expected that the number of employees will show the increase by 226 thousand, and, depending on which way and how much the real value differs, the market will be ready to resume growth or go into a steep dive.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: US Labor Market Data Encouraged Market Participants' Optimism

On Thursday morning, the euro continued to strengthen against the US dollar, renewing multi-months highs. Vista Brokers analysts say that market participants continued to take a lead from the weak data on the US employment from ADP, as well as comments of the Fed's chairperson, Janet Yellen. The dollar fell against most of its competitors in the foreign exchange market; German government bond yields rose.

However, later the dollar's decline was replaced by the growth, when during the US trading session was published data on unemployment claims in the United States. During the week ended May 2, the number of initial claims rose by 3,000 to 265,000, while analysts had expected the growth to 277,000.

Thus, the number of applications remains at 15-year low, being below 300,000 a ninth consecutive week. This picture can be regarded as a clear signal of the US labor market recovery. Of course, market participants could not ignore this signal, and the dollar has jumped to session highs against the euro after the publication. The strong data on unemployment claims has also encouraged investor's hope that today's statistics on the employment from the Labour Department would not be so disappointing as the data from ADP.

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Market Pulse 08.05

During the US trading session on Friday will be published most anticipated data of the day - the official employment data in the United States. After the ADP non-farm employment change data on Wednesday was much worse than forecast, investors expect the confirmation or refutation of this statistics from the Labour Department.

6:00 ** Industrial Production - March (Germany)

6:00 ** Trade Balance - March (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Expectations for these two indices are rather optimistic, although probably a greater impact on the dynamics of the euro against its main competitor today will have expectations regards the evening statistics on the US labor market. However, in March, analysts expect a slight increase in industrial production and an increase in the positive balance of foreign trade.

7:15 ** Consumer Price Index - April (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). The Consumer Price Index is one of the key benchmarks for the central bank, so these statistics can affect the dynamics of the Swiss franc. In April, it is expected a weak growth on a monthly basis and a decline year on year.

8:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - March (UK)

8:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - March (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports in the reporting month. Higher values are favorable for the currency, reflecting the lower outflow of money from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - April (Canada)

12:30 *** Employment Change - April (Canada)

12:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - April (Canada)

12:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - April (Canada)

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Expectations for labor market data in Canada are not too optimistic: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate in April rose by 0.1%, while the number of employed increased much less than in March. Weak data may renew talks of new stimulus measures from the Bank of Canada.

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - April (USA)

12:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - April (USA)

12:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - April (USA)

12:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - April (USA)

12:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - April (USA)

12:30 ** Participation Rate - April (USA)

12:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - April (USA)

Strong influence on the market (USD). These may cause a surge in volatility in financial markets and attract attention of traders. Forecasts are quite optimistic: reduction of unemployment by 0.1% and a strong enough job growth in April. However, the picture is spoiled by the ADP data, which showed a much smaller increase than expected. As a rule, official statistics as a whole repeats this data.

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Vista Brokers: Pound Rose amid Likely Conservatives Victory in Parliamentary Elections

During morning trading on Friday, the British pound continued to recover ground against the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts note that the currency has returned to the upward trend on Thursday evening, when the first data of exit polls on the results of parliamentary elections in the UK was released. Just a few minutes after polls were closed, the media have published survey results, according to which a majority in parliament will probably get the Conservatives.

Recall that this elections were called one of the most unpredictable in the history of Great Britain, as a preliminary survey had showed virtually the same chance of winning for the Conservatives and the Labour party. Many experts have suggested that none of major parties will be able to form a majority in parliament, so they will have to negotiate a coalition. However, it seems that the Conservatives, led by the current Prime Minister David Cameron will remain at the helm for another five years. And by the way, Cameron may also keep the post.

According to a survey published by the British media, the Conservatives won 316 seats, while the opposition Labor party - 239. Scottish nationalists should get 58 seats.

Amid this information, the pound rose from $ 1.5245 to $ 1.5448, moving further away from the reached last month six-year low of $ 1.4567. Also currency rose against the euro.

Analysts warn, that enthusiasm, due to the fact that the Conservatives can keep the lead, is premature, because the official results have not yet been announced. In addition, in the case of his re-election David Cameron promised to hold a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU, so that the country will soon face the new turmoil. Do not forget about the Scottish nationalists, who can make a coalition with the Labour party. The question of the independence of Scotland in the United Kingdom is also acute.

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Vista Brokers: Weak Data from China Supported Gold

On Friday, the precious metal is growing, restoring the position after the previous day decline. Vista Brokers analysts say that gold has increased from 1181.6 to 1186.1 dollars per ounce after the release of disappointing statistics on the trade balance, as well as export and import in China. Risks associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy increased investor interest in gold as a safe asset.

Balance of foreign trade in April has reached the point of 34.1B, but analysts expected an increase to 34.5B. The volume of exports from the country decreased by 6.4% against the expected growth of 1.6%. The volume of imports showed a significant decline - by 16.2%, after the March figure was also down by 12.7%.

Recall that on Thursday gold was losing ground after the US data on unemployment claims was stronger than expected. The Labor Department reported that the number of initial claims for the week ended May 2 rose by 3,000 to 265,000. Analystsexpected the rise in the number of applications to 277 thousand. Despite the increase, the index remains at the 15-years low.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Greece is on the Verge of Default

Vista Brokers analysts note that on Friday, the euro was mostly falling against the US dollar amid growing fears over a default by Greece. Although at the end of the last week the position of the US currency was still weakened - the dollar has fallen against the single currency and the Japanese yen due to shifting of the Fed rate hike expectations. The EUR / USD has fallen on Friday by 0.09% to 1.1352, dropping throughout the day to 1.1293.

The single currency remains under the pressure as Greece for many months can not enter into an agreement with international creditors (EU, ECB and IMF), that is why it has no access to external financial assistance. Until June 30, Athens must implement the next payment to the International Monetary Fund, and if for the next week, the agreement is not reached, Greece will have to default. Such a scenario may lead to the country's exit from the euro zone.

There is another thing to do - Greece may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance, but it happens only if creditors will agree with conditions, in particular, spending reducing and providing of a budget reform plan that will satisfy the "troika".

GBP / USD. Semi-Annual Highs are More to Come

The "cable" continues its triumphant ascension, taking full advantage from positive macroeconomic indicators in the UK, as well as ignoring (as often happens in such cases), not very positive data. For example, the consumer price index was lower than forecast, but wages growth was above expectations of relevant experts, and it allows to expect the inflation acceleration. The past FOMC meeting has also played its role, as well the Fed's head Yellen comments, which were somewhat more restrained than the market had expected, giving GBP / USD bulls one more reason to build on their success. Currently quotes have reached the 50% correction of the entire downward trend from July 2014 to April 2015, which imposes certain restrictions on the bulls' activity.

At the same time, trading is still held within the upward channel boundaries and only their overrunning beyond these boundaries will give reason to take profit on current long positions. Thus, it is recommended to use any intermediate correction to the line of support to increase the volume of purchases, and, of course, to enter on the breakthrough of the current extremum.

Volatility: 92%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: weak

GOLD is Highly Prized Again

Bulls on gold have used a situation with a false support level breakthrough (1170) and took quotes to the middle of the last few months trading range, in the area of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Given the decline in world stock indices, it is likely that some part of funds from risky assets will be taken into the safe-haven asset (and given the current price dynamics, it is already happening).

In current conditions it is possible to consider purchases, based on achievement of the said trading range upper boundary - 1225. We should note that here is the 50% correction level from the decline in January - March of this year.

Volatility: 62%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak

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Vista Brokers: Oil is Rising amid Expectations for Greek Debt Deal

On Monday, oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" upward trend is supported with the expectation that as a result of today's talks at the Eurogroup meeting, Greece will receive financial assistance. On Sunday, Athens has given international lenders a new reform plan, and it is hoped that it will be finally adopted by the "troika" (EU, ECB, IMF).

During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange in London Brent futures for delivery in August have risen by 0.7% to $ 63.46 per barrel. Analysts remind that on Friday these futures have hit $ 62.34, the lowest level since June 5, before closing at $ 63.02 per barrel (-1.93%).

Market tensions eased after Greece on Sunday has introduced the new reform plan, stating that the country may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance. If the agreement between Athens and creditors is not reached until 30 June (deadline of paying to the IMF), Greece may be forced to default.

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Vista Brokers: Oil is Rising amid Expectations for Greek Debt Deal

On Monday, oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" upward trend is supported with the expectation that as a result of today's talks at the Eurogroup meeting, Greece will receive financial assistance. On Sunday, Athens has given international lenders a new reform plan, and it is hoped that it will be finally adopted by the "troika" (EU, ECB, IMF).

During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange in London Brent futures for delivery in August have risen by 0.7% to $ 63.46 per barrel. Analysts remind that on Friday these futures have hit $ 62.34, the lowest level since June 5, before closing at $ 63.02 per barrel (-1.93%).

Market tensions eased after Greece on Sunday has introduced the new reform plan, stating that the country may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance. If the agreement between Athens and creditors is not reached until 30 June (deadline of paying to the IMF), Greece may be forced to default.

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

A purchase from 1189.21 will soon be closed, and apparently, we should re-look for the entrance mark. In any case, judging by where is the opening price and by current price dynamics, the relevant position will be profitable for us.

Volatility: 60%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

On the current bar we have a breakthrough of the fractal up, which means overcoming of the order to buy (123.21) that was placed here earlier. Note that earlier bears have attempted to work for a breakthrough of the next support level three times, but to no avail, which may, in turn, give additional impetus to growth. In any case, it is recommended to closely monitor the current dynamics of the pair, executing each and every System signal.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

Currently we are out of the market and ready to open a new position on a breakthrough of one of oppositely directed fractals, which are on both sides of Alligator's teeth (the red line). Thus, we will buy on a breakthrough of 1.1435 and sell from 1.1287, depending on the further scenario.

Volatility: 68%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

The long position may be closed soon (if the current bar closes under the red Alligator line). It should not go without mention that the uncertainty of buyers was caused with the fact that the price has reached the important support line – 50% correction of the whole «cable» decline in the period from July 2014 to April 2015.

Volatility: 88%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak

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USD / JPY. Bulls or Bears?

Once again, rebounding from a 50% correction of an upward momentum in May-June, bulls have reached an upper boundary of formed during the said growth correction graphic figure "triangle". Why this figure is so good? At least because when we work on a breakthrough of its graphical boundaries, risks are relatively low, but the movement potential can be very serious. Today's data from the United States (12.30 GMT), which will have to witness the current situation with durable goods sales, are quite capable to give an appropriate impetus to the pair.

It is recommended to open the order to buy if the daily price will close above the nearest resistance level 124.45, or in the case of support level 122.43 overcoming.

Volatility: 41%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong

EUR / USD. It Will be a Movement after Consolidation

The next Greek epic saga comes to an end, so in the near future may happen a radical change in the EUR / USD technical picture. In recent weeks quotes (largely due to expectations of solving the situation in Greece) are consolidated within a narrow trading range, but time passes, and the market's reaction in the case of Grexit may be unpredictable.

At this point, bears are making an attempt to break the support line, and if they succeed and consolidate below it, the downward movement will gain momentum and the nearest target may be 1.1050. It is likely that today the data on the current level of business activity in the euro zone and its countries will contribute to it.

Volatility: 63%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong

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Vista Brokers: Oil Falls prior to Fresh API Data

On Tuesday, futures on West Texas Intermediate are declining, having lost in early European trading 0.44% to $ 60.12 per barrel. Vista Brokers analysts say that investors are waiting for the fresh data from the American Petroleum Institute, which will show the last week change in volume of crude oil and petroleum products inventories in the US. Statistics on stocks reflects the change in the volume of consumption of the world's largest buyer of oil, so that this data is quite important for the market.

On Wednesday, the oil market participants will also expect official statistics from the Energy Department, which is expected to show a decline in crude inventories in the United States by 1.8 million barrels for the week ended June 19.

Analysts recall that some time ago the pressure on the "black gold" price was provided with the fact that the level of oil production in the US is in no hurry to fall, despite the reduction in the number of drilling rigs. Thus, according to Baker Hughes, the number of drilling rigs has been declining for the 28th consecutive week, but production thus remains at the level of 9.6 million barrels per day, which is the highest since 1970s.

Nevertheless, today on ICE Futures Exchange in London August futures for Brent have fallen by 0.08% to $ 63.29 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI is at $ 3.17 a barrel.

Waiting for the evening data on stocks in the United States does not prevent participants of the oil market, as, indeed, participants of all financial markets, from closely monitoring the situation in negotiations of Greece and its creditors. Recall that on Monday at the meeting of the Eurogroup agreement has not been reached, but many top officials of the euro zone have indicated that it is likely to happen later this week.

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Market Pulse 24.06

On Wednesday, the German IFO Institute will publish its indicators on the state of the German economy. It should also be noted that in the US the final GDP data will be released.

8:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - June (Germany)
8:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - June (Germany)
8:00 ** IFO - Expectations - June (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for indexes of the German IFO institute are not too optimistic. It is expected that the current assessment indicator will remain on the level of the previous month, while the other two will reduce. The most important of these three indicators is considered the business climate one, based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. In June, analysts expect a reduction of the index.

8:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). It indicates the number of executed loans to buy housing. It allows to evaluate the activity in the British mortgage market, according to data from the largest banks.

12:30 ** Final GDP - Q1 (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is expected that the final data for the first quarter will show a decrease of the US economy by 0.2%.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Fell to 2-week Low



Negotiations of Greece and international lenders continue to keep the market in suspense. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Tuesday EUR / USD has dropped to a two-week low – 1.1136 after earlier hope for the conclusion of negotiations for some time was supporting the growth of the pair. Not only the continuation of the "Greek saga" has weakened the euro, but the rally of the US dollar.

On Wednesday, euro zone finance ministers have set the time period within which the agreement on Greece to be negotiated, and it is no longer on June 30 but on 25 - the experts gave 48 hours to analise a next reform plan provided by Athens.

In the US, controversial macroeconomic statistics, together with statements of the FOMC member Jerome Powell, have supported expectations about this year Fed interest rate hike. Thus, Powell has said that he estimates the probability of the rate hike in September, as 50/50. With regard to statistics, data on durable goods sales were lower than forecasts, but the volume of home sales in the primary market has increased by 2.2% to the highest level since February 2008 – 546 000, that significantly exceeded forecasts.

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Vista Brokers: Asian Stocks Rose on Expectations regards Greece

During the Asian session on Wednesday, major stock indexes in the region have risen. Investors hope that a deal of Greece with international creditors is about to be concluded – as Vista Brokers analysts say. Supported with optimistic expectations, the Japanese Nikkei 225 has risen by 0.60%, Shanghai Composite – by 0.84% ​​and S & P / ASX 200 – by 0.27%.

Today, the left wing of the Greek Parliament has expressed confidence that on Thursday the deal with creditors, concluded by the government, will be approved by Parliament, despite the fact that yesterday, some members of the ruling party "Syriza" have aggressively embraced the possibility of the agreement. After all, to please creditors Tsipras had to agree to raise taxes and reduce pension costs. Recall that last Sunday Athens gave "troika" an updated reform plan, which was called by Eurogroup representatives sufficiently comprehensive. It gave hope to financial markets participants that the Greek saga may finally end soon.

The next stage of talks will be held on Thursday - representatives of Greece and creditors had 48 hours to study the updated reform plan, discuss some details and to finally adopt the decision. Perhaps that is exactly what will happen tomorrow.

Analysts say that during the Asian session today were published minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting. An interesting moment that came to be known of the protocols is that one of the board members, Takahide Kuichi, voted to reduce the amount of assets purchases by the Bank of Japan from 80 to 45 trillion euros, saying that aggressive incentives have unpleasant side effects that harm the economy. Thus, the central bank left the size of the program unchanged, but the voices were 8 to 1.

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USD/JPY. Bulls Try Strength of Triangle Upper Limit

The pair has moved a little above the upper limit of the triangle graphic figure, that we had mentioned in the last review. Meanwhile, given the fact, that today during the American trading session the USA will published the final GDP data for the Q1 (we should not also forget about today's Eurogroup meeting on Greece), this movement does not have essential fundamental reasons. Bulls should overcome the nearest support level 124.45 to feel themselves more confident.

It is recommended to wait for today's expected events before acting. Given the technical picture, the above-mentioned support level breakthrough with a high possibility will give the growth an additional momentum, and we should definitely use this.

Volatility 55%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong

EUR/USD. In Wait for Miracle

We should mention at once, that during today's meeting of the euro zone finance ministers a Greek question must be decided. Yesterday there were some signals that the deal would be finally made, but we should wait a little more before making conclusions. Meanwhile, investors have started to fix their long positions amid the uncertainty. This has reflected on quotes yesterday when the support line, that was holding sellers the whole last month, was passed.

It is recommended to hold short positions with a target of 1.1050, as we have said in the last review. Thus, it is important to take into account the element of surprise regards the decision on Greece, and be ready for any eventuality. Now, we can move the protective stop-order to the area of the opening price.

Volatility: 54%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: strong

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

The order to sale has activated after the price had passed a fractal down at 1181.87. Among additional signals we have «2 red bars below zero» on АС, as well as «red zone» signals. Recall that we must add volume to a position only when the price passes a minimal value (for sales) of a signal bar.

Volatility: 46%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

Despite a lack of important changes in USD/JPY during the last 24 hours, the long position is still relevant. The red Alligator line value has moved to a zero risk area, while there was no additional signals yet. Today the market is looking for the important final GDP data in the USA (Q1), that is why it is recommended to be ready to react on all new System signals.

Volatility: 50%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

We continue to hold our short position from 1.1310. The situation around talks on Greece is heating up, so in the market is growing uncertainty, a constant companion of which is a volatility increase. The value of the Alligator's teeth has moved to the level of 1.1299, while there was no additional signals to sale.

Volatility: 53%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

The market situation has not fundamentally changed – an order to sale from 1.5803 is still relevant. The market is waiting for today's US final GDP data.

Volatility: 76%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

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Market Pulse 25.06

On Thursday particularly saturated with information is the American trading session, during which will be released some important data, including the unemployment claims statistics in the United States.

6:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - July (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The leading GfK consumer climate index characterizes the opinion of consumers with respect to income, the desire to spend and to the economy in the beginning of the reporting month.

8:00 *** SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks - June (Switzerland)

Strong impact on the market (CHF). Comments of Jordan on the situation in the economy are closely monitored by traders and investors, who arelooking for hints of further SNB action.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core PCE Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Spending - June (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Among above indicators the most important considers to be the unemployment claims indicator, in particular, initial claims, which are the important indicator of the labor market. It is expected that during the reporting week, the number of Americans who had applied for benefits for the first time increased. Growth in consumer spending could have a positive impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: US GDP Data was in Line with Expectations

On Tuesday, market participants were mostly monitoring negotiations on Greece, occasionally distracted by the release of statistics. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the greatest attention was attracted by the final data on the US GDP for the first quarter. The data was in line with expectations - was revised from -0.7% to -0.2%.

Also in the US was published a number of less significant, but still accounted by the market indices. The GDP price index in the first quarter remained at the same level against the expected decline by 0.1%. Also better than expected was the growth of the personal consumption index – the figure increased in the first three months of this year by 2.1% vs. 1.9%.

With regard to the continuation of the "Greek saga," due to which the market is constantly in a fever, then according to the words of the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, international lenders have found some bugs in the latest reform plan, provided by Athens. Recall that the decision of Greece to be taken today. Or the country will face a default, or the resumption of the program of financial assistance from the EU, the ECB and the IMF.

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GBP/USD Reached the First Correction Target

After the pair has reached its maximal for the last seven months values (by the way, a peak of the «cable» growth was at the level of 50% correction from a downtrend lasted from July 2014 till April 2015) has started a correction, which currently continues. The size of this correction is now close to a value of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the June GBP / USD growth. There are no essential fundamental reasons for decline, as the recent statistics regards the British economy, as well as the US one was near predicted values.

It is recommended to wait for signals from trend indicators, before opening long positions. Meanwhile, it could not be excluded that the correction will continue to the next level – 50% (1.5560), 61.8% (1.5470), but this scenario is connected with high risks.

Volatility: 65%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate

GOLD Remains within Range

Gold price sinuous line, apparently, is very close to reflect changes in sentiment in financial markets related to the situation around Greece. At the same time, despite the fact that all possible terms when the saving tranche may be obtained, separating the country from defaulting almost expired, the market is not ready to make a false start. Yesterday quotes have once again tested the lower boundary of the last few months trading range, but could not overcome it again.

Given the current technical picture, it is recommended to buy with a protective stop slightly below yesterday's low with a target of 1220 - the upper border of the range.

Volatility: 40%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Vista Brokers: Asian Session Was under the Sign of Greece Again

During the Asian trading session on Thursday, stock markets in the region were declining, as well as the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts remind that today is a "day X" for Greece - the country has only a few hours to somehow avoid default.

Today the European Union leaders once again gather in Brussels to discuss the possibility of Athens salvation. If no agreement is concluded, Greece will not be able to make a payment on the IMF loan in the amount of 1.6 billion euros on 30 June. In such a case it will default, in consequence of which the country could leave the euro zone, which will bring the financial markets even more uncertainty.

Let's go back to the Thursday's Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was actually holding close to the previous session's close. Japan's Nikkei has fallen by 0.3% after earlier on Wednesday, it has risen to the highest level since 1996 on optimism about Greece's agreement with creditors. Support for major Japanese index has also information that the US President Barack Obama is actively working on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where Japan has an important economic role.

The dollar index DXY has fallen by 0.1%. The euro was traded higher against the US currency, as the hope of a favorable outcome of the situation with Greece still persists. It should be noted that on Wednesday was published the final data on changes in US GDP for the 1st quarter, which coincided with the forecast (-0.7% with revision to -0.2%). Now the market is too busy with Greece to pay much attention to this fact, but the positive GDP figures confirm expectations about the Fed rate hike in September.

On the commodities market, crude oil has not changed in price, remaining close to the level of $ 60.28. Brent crude oil has risen by 0.3% to $ 63.68. Spot gold has risen by 0.2% to $ 1,177.22 per ounce.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Is in Limbo because of Greece

On Thursday, oil futures can not determine with the direction, moving up and down. Vista Brokers analysts say that traders are awaiting the outcome of Greece's talks with international creditors, which continues today in Brussels.

During the European trading session on the Nymex crude oil futures for delivery in August have fallen in price by 0.22% to $ 60.14 per barrel. Recall that the day before August futures have fallen by 1.21% to $ 60.27 after it became known that in the US last week, gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels and distillates - by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time oil reserves fell by 4.9 million barrels, far exceeding the forecast.

August futures for Brent today have fallen on ICE Futures Exchange in London by 0.04% to $ 63.47 a barrel, after falling 1.49% to $ 63.49 on Wednesday.

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

We continue to hold the short position from 1181.87. In general the market is calm, and it allows us to gradually move the stop-trade after the price on the red Alligator line level (current value is 1180.88). We have only one additional signal from the «red zone». According to the classical technical analysis, prices have reached the support level, a breakthrough of which would be beneficial for us.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The uptrend has been placed with the correction, and our long position was closed with the bar closure below the red Alligator line. Currently we are out of the market. We have placed pending breakthrough orders at the nearest fractals levels on both sides of Alligator's teeth.

Volatility: 56%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The market is frozen – nobody wants to predict the result of the situation with Greece amid those conflicting rumors that appear in news line. Meanwhile, the order to sale from 1.1310 is still in the market. We have a signal to add volume «3 red bars above zero» on АС.

Volatility: 44%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We continue to hold a short position from 1.5803. Despite rather calm recent trading, we have additional signals from a «red zone», a «saucer» on АО, as well as «2 red bars below zero» on АС.

Volatility: 63%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate