Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Waiting for ECB Decision Influences on Metals

Gold in global markets falls for a second day. Investors expect that the expansion of the ECB stimulation program will increase the demand for risky assets. Vista Brokers analysts point out that in 2015, gold has already increased by 8.8% on numerous signals of slowdown in the global economy.

On Wednesday, gold was traded at a five-month high of $ 1,300 an ounce. Today in London gold for immediate delivery has fallen in price by 0.5% to $ 1,286.73. February futures fell on the Comex by 0.6% to $ 1,286.10.

Silver for immediate delivery fell by 0.4% to $ 18.0582 an ounce and palladium - by 0.5% to $ 763.75. Platinum added 0.2% to $ 1,275.88 an ounce.

Analysts reminde that with high probability, today ECB President Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program, which means a monthly asset purchasing by 50 billion euros (58 billion dollars).

Vista Brokers: ECB Stimulation Program Can Support Oil

Oil prices reduction continues to be one of the most debated topics, giving way, perhaps, only to the ECB quantitative easing program. Oil companies and exporters expect the market tests the bottom and start to rise. At the same time, many experts say that oil prices may fall to 30 dollars a barrel, because there are no economic justification for a high price, and there is a clear oversupply and falling demand in the market.

This situation lays mainly to the charge of North America, which is steadily increasing its production. The global economy, which is experiencing a period of deceleration, does not need oil in such quantities.

The report of the International Energy Agency in January indicated that in the IV quarter of 2014 excess supply (the difference between supply and demand) amounted to 890 thousand barrels. In comparison with the previous quarter, it's 170 thousand barrels more oversupply a day. For the first half of 2015 the IEA predicts reduction in demand by 900 thousand barrels per day compared to the IV quarter 2014. The agency expects growth in demand not earlier than in the III quarter of this year, and to this this lays forecast the IEA lays a decline of North America production.

Analysts say that at the moment it is difficult to predict the movement of the oil market, because during the past year oil prices were almost always supported by geopolitical risks. This year, such a situation is also possible - in case of such risks, the price can quickly grow by $ 20 a barrel or even more.

Also, the price can depend on the OPEC decisions about the decline in production. Note that some of the exporting countries were ready to change the quota, but others expressed strong protest against it, with the fear to lose the market share.

Vista Brokers analysts note that on Wednesday the price of oil on world markets is growing on the information that the ECB is close to the adoption of more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy. If Mario Draghi today will announce the launch of quantitative easing, it can support oil. Today, March futures for WTI crude oil on the Comex rose by 2.8% to $ 47.78 per barrel. March futures for Brent in London rose by 2.2% to $ 49.03 a barrel.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Fell against Major Competitors

As markets had expected, on Thursday the ECB announced the launch of the quantitative easing program. Against this background, the EUR / USD broke the 1.14 level, and continued to decline, stopping only at the level of 1.1380.

Vista Brokers analysts point out thatthe large-scale program of bonds purchasing will become the long term factor of pressure for the euro. Yesterday, the single currency was trading at 11-year low against the dollar, 3-month low against the yen, and 7-year low against the pound.

QE starting was the anticipated event for the markets. As experts predicted, the ECB will buy bonds from March 2015 until September 2016. Thus, the euro zone economy will regularly be supported by new liquidity, and by the end of the program, it will receive € 1 trillion. The volume of monthly purchases will be 60 billion euros.

Note that the Bundesbank, the central bank of the eurozone's largest economy, was against such aggressive measures to stimulate the economy of the region. They said about the illegality of such measures in terms of the European Union legislation and also claimed that the weak eurozone economy in such conditions will not have an incentive to carry out important economic reforms.

Analysts say that amid the aggressive ECB actions, the US economy currently looks like an island of stability, and it will support the US currency. The dollar index on Thursday rose from 92.78 to 94.02 points.

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Market Pulse 23.01

On Friday, the ECB's decision to launch the stimulation program will still impact on the market. Therefore, the actions of its members may be contrary to the outgoing news. Nevertheless, some important publications in European countries and Canada should be noted .

8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (France)
8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - January (France)
8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (France)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Flash manufacturing PMI is considered to be the most important of these indices. It is currently below 50, which is considered to be the deterioration of the overall situation. Nevertheless, analysts expect a slight growth of these three indicators in January.

8:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash Services PMI - January (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). In Germany, the indices are slightly higher than 50. Analysts expect a slight growth of these three indicators.

9:00 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (euro zone)
9:00 ** Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q1 (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Services PMI - January (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Given the high market volatility caused by the decision of the ECB it is unlikely that these publications will have a strong impact on the euro, even if the values of indices will exceed forecasts.

9:30 *** Retail Sales With Auto Fuel - December (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel - December (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Growth of these indices (or the forecast excessing) reflects the upturn of consumer activity that strengthens the currency. This important indicator during the release can seriously affect the pound.

13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Core CPI - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Retail Sales - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - December (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The portion of important statistics can have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. It is expected that inflation in Canada will again show a decrease, while the volume of retail sales will rise slightly.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Bears are Back on Bike

The loss of the single currency in relation to the US dollar yesterday equaled 3 figures – the pair set a new 11-year low at around 1.1313. The reason of it was the proclamation of the long-awaited quantitative easing program. Many market participants were surprised with the determination showed by the European regulator. The European QE will begin in March and will be completed in September 2016. The volume of monthly purchases will be 60 billions euros. Now bears hold all the cards as evidenced by the clear trend acceleration in the form of quotes consolidation outside the long-term trend (see fig.).

Now the highest priority has the work for the rebound from the boundaries of trading channel formed in recent weeks with the expected results, when it is recommended to sell when approaching the line of resistance and then when confirming the rebound from it with the help of indicators. At the moment, the opposite boundary of the channel is reached, and here it would be appropriate to fix the result of the short position. Also today, it is impossible not to draw attention to the publication of data on the business activity in manufacturing and service sector.

GOLD. Fibonacci Decides most Everything

After gold price has reached the minimum over the past 4 year, it finally started to grow. Whether market participants were so sensitive to correction in global stock markets (they needed to settle in their money somewhere for not to keeping them in cache), or whether the achievement of the important Fibo level 61.8% from the large-scale rally observed in the period 2008-2011 has done its work. We note that in 2011 the historical maximum (1920 dollars per ounce) was established. Currently we see the previous downward movement breaking and the development of the upward movement within the channel. By itself, the turning point was by the classical scheme when at first the "head and shoulders" reversal pattern was formed, and then it was a breakthrough of its graphical boundaries (neck) upward.

Anyway, there are some problems in the uprise development (which does not change the general direction), because on the one hand quotes reached the channel line of the current upward trend, and on the other the level of expansion 161.8% of the initial pulse of November-December 2014 was achieved. Thus, it is recommended to take profits on long positions, waiting for lawful correction of the January upward impulse.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Markets after ECB's Decision

Yesterday's announcement of the European Central Bank about the launch of quantitative easing in March caused strong fluctuations in the financial markets, which continues today.

In particular, stock markets are rising in Asia, the USA, Australia, South Korea etc. Vista Brokers analysts note that S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.5%, the Japanese Nikkei - by 1%, the MSCI Asia-Pacific - by 0.9%. In Europe stocks and eurobonds are rising.

Meanwhile, the euro against the dollar is still trading at 11-year low of about $ 1.1344, having lost 2% this week.Versus the yen the single currency fell to the 3-month low at 134.28 yen. The additional pressure on the euro have the upcoming elections in Greece, where extreme left political forces can win. Such a scenario can lead to the situation when the country will leave the euro zone.

By the way, the participation of Greece in the ECB quantitative easing program open to question. According to Mario Draghi, the regulator will buy Greek government bonds, but only if Athens will fulfill all the program conditions. The radical SYRIZA party, which may come to power in Greece intends to cancel the austerity measures prescribed by international lenders, which may lead the country to default.

In such a difficult situation, experts are wondering how the euro will behave in further. Societe Generale analysts note that the single currency can not fall without correction, but do not give specific predictions about this correction. HSBC said that the launch of the quantitative easing program should already be considered by the market, as the EUR / USD began to decline as early as mid-2014, when hints about the QE become less transparent. The Bank's experts talk about the possibility of the euro reducing to 1, but in such a case, the US Federal Reserve will begin to operate, because such a strengthening of the dollar will be not profitable for the USA.

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Vista Brokers: Saudi King's Death Feeds Oil Market Uncertainty

On Friday, oil prices rise after the news about the death of Saudi Arabia King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. Brent is traded at $ 49.30 per barrel, WTI - at $ 46.70 per barrel.

The crown of the country, which is the largest exporter of oil, goes to the Abdullah's brother, Salman. He has already said that the oil policy of the state remains unchanged, and the key in this area position of oil minister remains for Ali al-Naimi. Salman also intends to follow the OPEC policy in respect of oil production quotas.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the change of government in Saudi Arabia has added uncertainty to the already snappish oil market, which is going down over the last six months. Earlier this year, the market has been falling and with the high volatility, but this week the price rebounded slightly, and Brent was traded at around $ 47.78 - $ 50.45 per barrel.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Thorny Path up to Fuji...

It seems that the large-scale correction of the last couple of months is close to completion. The figure that can be taken as a graphical consolidation figure definitely implies the need to work with it in line. Moreover, going beyond the scope of this "triangle" it is able to lead the new trend in the direction of the breakdown impulses, whether we like it or not. Probably the most market players will remember that in fact the Bank of Japan is now carrying out an ambitious program of quantitative easing and printing money directly implies a depreciation of the national currency. This fundamental factor gives grounds to the development of a new growth wave especially amid expectations of increasing of the key interest rate in the United States.

However, in order to obtain confirmation of the objectives established at the level of multi-year highs in December (121.84) and higher, the bulls first need to overcome the next level of resistance (118.86), then the above-mentioned upper limit of the "triangle" and then the Fibonacci extension level 161.8% from the pair growth on 16-21 January (120.69). Today, the market is positively affected by the publication of the revised trade balance in Japan in November (-0.83 to -0.73 trillion of yen), while December's value has declined, reaching the highest value over the past 1.5 year (-0.71 trillion.). It is ti be recalled that after the accident at the Fukushima 1 and an almost refusal of nuclear energy, the country is forced to import energy in a much larger scale, which led the country to a trade deficit.

GBP / USD. At the crossroads...

Dynamics of the "cable" in recent months was in the footsteps of the greenback strengthening. As in the pair with single currency, here it was formed the downward trend in which investors were using some simple and in this case the best trading systems and could take large profits.

Of course, there is always a temptation to buy cheaper, but, as history shows, catching the falling knife with bare hands is not the best method. An additional fundamental factor, supported the bears, remain rather vague messages of the Bank of England about a possible rate hike. In spring this Bank was one of the first candidates for the beginning of the rising rates cycle along with the Fed. However, on its meeting the regulator made it clear that the problems in the economy still remain. At the moment, quotes have reached the support line connecting lows of 2010, 2013 and here everything will be decided.

It is recommended to fix the result on the open short positions and not to take decisive action until tomorrow's publication of quarterly GDP in the UK. These indicator can give an impetus to quotes, summing up the foundation for the future dynamics of the pair.

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Vista Brokers: Euro on Friday was Traded under Pressure

At the end of the last week, the euro against the dollar has lost about 2.5% after the announcement of the ECB's decision to launch a program of quantitative easing. On Friday, the single currency was trading at 11-year low against the US currency. Against the yen, the euro reached a 16-month low at 130.91.

Vista Brokers analysts note that since the beginning of 2015 the EUR/USD has lost 7% and in January the pair can show the most significant monthly decrease since the crisis of 2009.

Today, the single currency may have another reason for the fall - the announcement of Greek election results. On Sunday, the country has held early parliamentary elections, and the radical left-wing party "Syriza" can come to power. In this case, Athens can stop paying public debts and review the conditions for receiving financial assistance. Although the leaders of the radical party say that a Greek exit from the eurozone is not in their plans, the market is considered in such a scenario.

Also this week, market participants will wait for the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on Wednesday. After an unpleasant surprise from the Swiss National Bank and the announcement about the launch of QE from the ECB, investors want to be sure that the US central bank will not deviate from the course. Analysts remind that this year investors expect that the Fed will raise interest rates.

While the euro declines in the currency market, the dollar is rising not only against the single currency, but also against other major competitors. On Friday, the currency rose against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar amid prices for natural resources declined. It has become a factor of pressure on the resource-exporting countries.

The dollar index DXY rose from 94.26 to 94.74, reaching a new 11-year high.

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Market Pulse 26.01

On Monday, Australian markets are closed - today the country celebrates Australia Day. Several important indicators will be released in Germany and the UK. Also this day willstart Eurogroup Meetings, which in relation to the recent ECB decision may attract the attention of traders.

9:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - January (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - January (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Expectations - January (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that these three indicators of the German IFO Institute will show the growth compared to December. Recall that these indicators are based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesale and retail companies.

9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - December (UK)
9:30 ** MPC Member Kristin Forbes Speaks - December (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The volume of mortgage lending shows the activity on the UK mortgage market. As for Kristin Forbes, her speech can influence on the pound, because it can show the mood of the Monetary Policy Committee.

14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - January (eurozone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors conclude on the extent of buying bonds by the regulator. Expansion of purchases is a signal for greater activity of the ECB, which puts pressure on the euro.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Hit 11-year low Amid Election Results in Greece

As expected, the left radical Syriza party whose leaders are against the cooperation with international creditors swept to victory in a snap election in Greece. Against this background, on Monday, the single currency broke through the 11-year low against the dollar and fell to $ 1.1098, the lowest level since September 2003.

The "Syriza" won 36.3% which infers 149 of 300 seats in the new Greek parliament. It means a very great power for radical forces and huge uncertainty for the whole Europe. The leader of the leftist Alexis Tsipras has said that the choice made by the Greek people, would entail the end of the austerity program. "Today the Greek people overturned an agreement with creditors - they brought us only poverty and misery. Now the dictates of creditors is in the past "- said Tsipras.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that it is unclear how the new Prime Minister of Greece, Tsipras will output from the difficult economic situation. It is clear that he will be able to achieve only some concessions from creditors, but not a complete debt write-off. The country is in a vicious circle, and is unable to finance its obligations on their own, given that it does not have access to financial markets. In summer Greece may need new injections to repay debts on schedule, and if the country ceases to comply with the terms of international lenders, it will not receive the money. In this case, the default or the “Grexit” (exit from the euro zone) are possible. This uncertainty scares markets.

Today, the euro is reduced not only against the dollar. EUR/JPY is at 11-year low - 130.16 yen. Also, the single currency fell against the pound to 7-year low – 74.06.

Analysts note that the position of the euro is very unstable after the announcement of the ECB quantitative easing program launch.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Partly Reasserts itself

On Monday, the euro fell against the dollar to its lowest level since September 2003, when it became known that in Greece the opposition leftist coalition "Syriza" had won the elections. Markets concern that the new government may refuse to cooperate with international lenders or even initiate the process of exit from the eurozone. Against this background, the European currency fell by 0.3% against the dollar to $ 1.1167.

However, Vista Brokers analysts said that the market excitement about Greece had not lasted too long. At midday, the euro has already returned to the level of $ 1.1237 and continued to slowly reassert itself. Investors felt that the risks from so-called Grexit was overvalued.

According to a senior Nordea Bank analyst Niels Christensen, it is too early to worry about it, and there are no real prerequisites for the new round of debt crisis in the region development after the elections in Greece.

Meanwhile, the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that there is no plan for the Greek exit from the euro zone, and the country must adhere to budgetary rules established in the area. As for election promises of "Syriza" to reduce Greek debt, Deysselblum noted that the Eurogroup has already taken enough efforts to ease the debt burden of the country, and the debt can not be canceled.

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Market Pulse 27.01

Tuesday's economic calendar is not too saturated. The Eurogroup meeting continues In Brussels, where among other issues, the victory of radical party "Syriza" in Greece is discussed. A number of important data will be released today in the United States.

9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - December (UK)
9:30 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). It is expected that on a quarterly basis the UK economy slowed its growth compared to Q3, but on an annualised basis - it has accelerated. Growth or accelerate of the growth will be favorable to the pound.

13:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - December (US)
13:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - December (US)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Changing in the volume of orders for durable goods is a leading indicator of production trends, as well as the investment activity in the country. After the decrease in November, in December the indicator is expected to rise slightly.

15:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - January (USA)
15:00 *** New Home Sales - December (US)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its development in the future. The growth of the confidence in the economy favorably affects the currency.

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GOLD. As to Energy Conversation Principle...

As we noted in a previous review, the gold price had been achieved several important resistance levels. So, some technical factors in the form of the channel from the trend, which started in November 2014, prevent the global safe haven asset from growth. Then the correctional Fibonacci level 61.8% from the large-scale growth of 2008-2011 became a technical basis for the start of the trend. Also the discretion of bulls is limited by the extension level of 161.8% from the upward momentum of November-December 2014. Needless to say, that global capital markets are tied with benefits, which means that the money flow from market to market depending on overall market conditions. Thus, we may expect a decrease in quotations of the investigated asset amid rising of stock markets (which happens now amid the easing of monetary policy by some key central banks) and vice versa.

A hit of support line from the January ascending trend will become a confirmation of further reducing, and also a hit of the neckline on the graphic figure "head and shoulders", which is well seen now. In this case, we can expect to achieve the next support level in the form of correction 38.2% (1254 dollars per ounce) from the growth in January.

AUD / USD. For Connoisseurs of Beauty

The aussie in tandem with the US dollar continues a confident reduction within quite picturesque canal (connoisseurs should note). It is impossible to pay no regard to the fact that at the moment quotes have reached an important technical support - correctional Fibo level 61.8% from the growth in 2008-2011. The global financial and European debt crises, raging at the time, had a very limited negative impact on the Australian economy, allowing the RBA to raise rates. Such actions have caused a powerful trend in Australian dollar, but later quotes were affected by such factors as falling prices for iron ore, a very high rate of Aussie in the foreign market, as well as the completion of the mining industry boom in the country. All this prompted the Reserve Bank to take decisive action in the form of verbal interventions (dissatisfaction with high exchange rate), and the whole cycle of reduced rates. These fundamental factors in conjunction with the strengthening of the greenback's position were formed as a result into the AUD/USD trend.

It is recommended to close short positions (if you have them, of course) and be prepared for a possible corrective upside. It is worth noting that many pairs with the dollar had achieved significant levels, and here it's time to stay on the sidelines for a while. The goal, in the case of a breakthrough of the current interim trend clearly perceptible in the daily timeframe – is its correction by 38.2% (0.85 mark).

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Vista Brokers: Long-term Trend for EUR/USD Remains Bearish

On Tuesday, the euro strengthened against the dollar after the EUR/USD had reached the 11-year low at $ 1.1098 on Monday. Here, many investors preferred to take profits, and this eased the pressure on the single currency. Today, as Vista Brokers analysts say, the euro against the dollar trades at $ 1.1238.

Experts remind that a large-scale selling of the euro last week was caused by the decision of the European Central Bank to launch a quantitative easing program. Earlier this week, the bearish trend for the single currency was supported by the news about the victory of the radical forces in the elections in Greece. At the moment, the market has already taken a lead from these news and the pair came to the phase of correction. Most likely it will not last too long.

Greece will remain a factor of pressure on the euro. Investors will be watching Alexis Tsipras in anticipation of any statements and explanations of how he plans to fulfill his campaign promises. Also, some negotiations of the new Greek government with international creditors will attract investors' attention.

Recall that Tsipras and his party "Syriza" promised the electorate a significant reduction of debt and getting out of austerity. It is still unclear how radicals plan to achieve it. But the higher ranks of the European Union have already commented on this situation, saying that the cancellation of debt for Greece would be no question.

Meanwhile, analysts of world's leading banks rush to cut their forecasts for the euro. UOB Bank expects a decline in EUR/USD to 1.1000 in the coming weeks. Danske Bank predicts a drop below support level 1.1000 in the next 6 months.

The dollar on Tuesday fell slightly against the yen to 118.26 yen. Last week, the US currency was trading against the Japanese in a fairly wide range, from 117 to 119 yen.

The greenback this week may be strong influenced by the US Federal Reserve meeting, which starts today and will last two days. Investors are waiting for confirmation from the American regulator about the policy of monetary tightening.

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Vista Brokers: On Tuesday Oil Rose above $48

On Tuesday, oil rose above $48 per barrel, recovering positions after falling amid the weakness of the dollar against the euro.Vista Brokers analysts say that Brent crude oil has risen by 22 cents to $ 48.38 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI is traded at $ 45.25 per barrel.

In the currency market, the euro is rising against the dollar, correcting from the punched on Monday 11-year low. Some market participants expect the Fed meeting would not justify expectations of relatively stable path to the interest rates growth.

Also the oil is supported by comments of the OPEC general secretary Abdullah El-Badri, who had said that the price of oil may even exceed $ 200 per barrel if there would be a lack of investment.

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[orni308]

GBPUSD has been trading ina very volatile condition there might me more sell off in the pair, must wait for any buying opportunity.

[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Markets Wait for FOMC decision

On Thursday US stock indexes moved down under a pressure from disappointing U.S. durable goods orders data. In December durable goods orders decreased by 3.4% against the expected growth of 0.6%. The core index fell by 0.8% against the expected growth of 0.6%.

Against this backdrop, US stock indexes were down around 2%. DJI fell by 2.05% to 17,316.42. SPX - by 1.61% to 2,023.91. IXIC – by 2.09% to 4,672.06.

Vista Brokers analysts note that expectations for this year's first Fed meeting was also the factor of pressure for the US stock market. Investors look forward FOMC to express its commitment to the course of monetary tightening marked earlier. Doubts about the Fed raising rates occurred after the ECB had announced the launch of an ambitious quantitative easing program.

According to experts, any statements of the Fed about the strong US labor market will support expectations of rates growth in the middle of this year. The references about the problems of the world economy or low inflation will enhance the excitement in markets.

Using the doubts of market participants about the US dollar, the euro recovered the second consecutive day against the US currency. On Tuesday, the euro has moved up from 11-month high reached on Monday morning on the news about the Greek elections results.

On commodity markets oil and gold are rising. Brent futures on Tuesday were trading at $ 48.37 per barrel, WTI - at $ 45.47 per barrel. Spot gold rose by 0.5% to $ 1,287.30 per ounce.

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Market Pulse 28.01

Certainly, the most important event of Wednesday and even of the whole week for financial markets will be the announcement of the US Federal Reserve meeting results. Today FOMC will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, and then the FOMC statement will be published. Also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its decision about the interest rate.

7:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - February (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The GfK leading index characterizes the attitude of consumers to the economy by the beginning of the reporting month. As a rule, the growth of the index is favorable for the currency.

15:30 ** Crude Oil Inventories - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in the level of crude oil reserves in the United States is one of the benchmarks for the oil market.

18:50 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Comments of Carney about inflation or the labor market can quite strongly influence the pound because on their basis investors can draw conclusions about the future monetary policy of the central bank.

19:00 *** FOMC Rate Decision - January (USA)
19:00 *** FOMC Statement - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Financial market participants expect some hints on the Fed's furtherer actions in the light of recent decisions of the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. The Fed will either confirm or not confirm its policy of raising interest rates this year. In any case, it can greatly affect the dollar.

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GOLD. Is it Head and Shoulders?

Our "head and shoulders" figure has gotten a missing second shoulder by performing another condition for formation and implementation of graphic patterns. Thus, the H&S formation was preceded by a clear upward trend, then all the necessary graphical borders were formed, in particular there are head and shoulders and even the neckline. Now it is a little thing to do - we need a breakdown of the neckline. From fundamental point of view, a recovery in global stock indices amid the steps that have been taken by some world central banks with a view to stimulating economic growth, as well as for anti-deflation, continue to put pressure on prices. During such periods, the cash flow is directed towards the priority of income from investments, as opposed to the need for preservation, which is provided by gold.

The first reduce goal in the case of the support break scenario on the classics should be the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. Another classic goal will be the correctional Fibo level 38.2% from the growth of the pair fixed in the current month. We can say that they tie together at 1254 dollars per troy ounce, where the close order should be placed.

EUR / USD. Is it Time to Lift Head?

Yesterday's FOMC meeting was not out of the ordinary event. The Fed did not scare people, announcing any drastic measures, keeping the overall market expectations within borders understood by most investors. We mean that the regulator, of course, has reacted to the recent easing measures from other world central banks, referring to the need of the economy support, focusing primarily on long-term targets for inflation and employment. Based on recent data, about half of the analysts think that the first rate hike will occur in June. In any case, the situation with the euro is now clearer, because the long-awaited asset repurchase program of ECB has finally been announced. It's time to gather stones ...

At the moment, the descending medium and long term trends remain valid, but the dynamics of the pair in the last days together with the fundamental background give reasons to expect a correction and a possible medium-term trend line break. For this, it is necessary to overcome the extremum at 1.1421, where it is possible to open long positions with the aim of 1.1620 - Fibonacci extension 161.8% of the above-mentioned pulse. Here lies an important resistance level, corresponding to this year maximum.

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Vista Brokers: Fed Meeting Results are Positive for Dollar

On Wednesday, the most anticipated event of this week for financial markets took place - this year's first meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Iahead of it the US dollar against the euro rose in price. By 13:00 GMT the single currency was at $ 1.1355 level compared with $ 1.1381 at the close of trading on Tuesday. USD/JPY has remained stable - at 117.88 yen.

The Fed meeting results were published at 19:00 GMT without any press conference, thus investors tried to catch hints of further steps of the US central bank between the lines of the statement.

Vista Brokers analysts note several important theses that have been made. Firstly, the Fed has marked a steady development of the US economy and the labor market, as well as the fact that the drop in oil prices has increased the purchasing power of households. Secondly, the Fed expects the decline in inflation in the short term and its growth in medium-term to the target level of 2%. Also worth noting is that the interest rate has remained in the same range.

As analysts had expected, the FOMC statement did not give any surprise. Although some experts got to see in a slightly changed text some hints at "softening". In particular, the State Street Global Advisors economist Michael Aron believes that even if inflation will grow closer to the target level, the Fed's policy remains soft for a long time.

Immediately after the publication the US stock market began to decline and the yield of US 30-year Treasuries fell to the record - 2.291%. The dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies by 0.5%.

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Market Pulse 29.01

8:50 *** Unemployment Change - January (Germany)
8:55 *** Unemployment Rate - January (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that unemployment in Germany will remain the same - 6.5%, while the number of unemployed will fall, but less than in the previous reporting period. Excess of forecasts can support a single currency.

10:00 ** Consumer Confidence - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The leading index, published by the European Commission, which reflects consumer confidence in the economic situation. Analysts expect lowering of confidence level by 8.5.

11:00 ** CBI Distributive Trades Survey - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). A report published by the Confederation of British Industry, is an indicator of short-term trends in the retail and wholesale trade in Great Britain. As a rule, the high value of the index is positive for the pound.

13:00 ** Preliminary Consumer Price Index - January (Germany)
13:00 ** Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). After a small increase in the previous month, on January, analysts expect lowering of inflation in the euro zone's largest economy. This can put pressure on the euro.

13:30 *** Initial Jobless Claims - January (USA)
13:30 *** Continuing Jobless Claims - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). In the accompanying statement of FOMC which has been released yesterday was a comment that labor market conditions have improved and the employment growth is "strong." In recent months, the number of claims in the US has been steadily decreasing.

15:00 ** Pending Home Sales - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). One of the most important indicators for the US real estate market, which characterizes activity in this area. High result strengthens the dollar.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Fed Meeting Influenced on all Financial Markets

On Thursday, stock markets in Europe and Asia were falling amid of the dollar growth after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The regulator has confirmed the policy of raising interest rates this year giving the US currency a considerable support.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar strengthening has led to a decline in oil prices down to 6-year low, and has put a pressure on gold.

As for the European markets, they are still under the influence of the radical party "Syriza" victory in Greece. Now Greece shares are rebounding slightly after falling by 9.2% on Wednesday. But the pan-European index FTEU3% has lost 0.7%, having dropped to 1.464 points.

In Asia, the stock market declines. The Japanese major index Nikkei fell on Wednesday by 1.1%, and it is the greatest day decline over the past two weeks. Asian MSCI index lost 1.2%.

In the USA, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.4% after the announcement of the Fed meeting results. Recall that many market participants have expected that the US regulator would adjust its plans for the monetary policy after the other major central banks around the world had chosen further easing. However, the Fed confirmed the previously taken course.

Against this backdrop, the dollar index, which tracks the price against a basket of currencies, was up by 0.2%. Against the yen, the dollar rose by 0.3% to 117.87 yen. The euro fell against the greenback to $ 1.1304.

As for commodity markets, the Brent crude oil rose by 0.25% to $ 48.60 per barrel, WTI fell by 0.1% to $ 44.40. Gold has fallen in price to $ 1,279.80 per ounce.

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Vista Brokers: Fed Statement Put Pressure on Gold

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal fell. At the end of trades on СОМЕХ gold for February delivery fell by 0.5% to $ 1.285.90 per ounce. Vista Brokers analysts note that the reason for the decline of gold was that the US Federal Reserve had confirmed its adherence to the policy of raising rates in the second half of this year. March silver futures closed unchanged at $ 18.09 per ounce.

In its accompanying statement, the Fed has noted a "solid growth" of the economy and the labor market. Thus the regulator has expressed an optimistic attitude to the current state of the economy. Also, the Fed has repeated that inflation is likely to reach a level of 2%, although not in the short term.

Analysts remind that the day before the market price of precious metals rose after weak data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Disappointing statistics put pressure on the stock market, which in turn led to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: US Jobless Claims Reached 15-year Low

On Thursday it became known that one of the key indicators of the US labor market showed the best results since April 2000. For the week ending on January 24, the number of jobless claims fell by 43 000 to 265 000. Most experts were expected a decline to only 300,000.

These data provided the yet another confirmation of the US labor market rapid recovering, and supported expectations that the Fed would start to raise interest rates later this year.

However, Vista Brokers analysts say that yesterday the market took the strong data on jobless claims in stride. The dollar has not received much support, firstly because of the fact that this statistics is strongly influenced by seasonality. And secondly, because market participants expected data on home sales in the United States. As a result, the euro even rose against the dollar.

By the way, data on pending home sales did not make investors happy. In December, the indicator decreased by 3.7% against the expected growth by 0.6%. It is worth noting that the level of sales is still quite high, and indeed against other major world economies the United States looks like an oasis of stability.

Actions of the central bank of Switzerland and the European Central Bank have a strong influence on the European region. Regulators of other countries are forced to cut rates to prevent the strong growth of their national currencies against the euro. In particular, the central bank of Denmark for the third time in the last two weeks has lowered its deposit rate.

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Market Pulse 30.01

The last day of the trading week is full of statistics. In particular, the United States will released some important data on the 4th quarter of last year. In the euro zone the data on the consumer price index and the unemployment rate, which may affect the dynamics of the market, will be released.

7:00 ** Retail Sales - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The growth of the indicator reflects higher consumer activity that can support the single currency. In December analysts expect the indicator's growth.

9:30 ** Net Lending to Individuals - December (UK)
9:30 ** Mortgage Approvals - December (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). In December, analysts expect a slight slowdown in growth of loans to individuals, reflecting the deterioration in lending. It promises a drop in consumer spending in the future.

10:00 *** Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate - January (euro zone)
10:00 ** Flash Core CPI - January (euro zone)
10:00 ** Unemployment Rate - December (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Consumer price index is an important indicator for the market and a reference point for the central bank. Inflation slowing in January can be a factor of pressure for the euro on Friday. Experts predict that the unemployment rate will leave the same - 11.5%.

13:30 *** Advance GDP - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Advance GDP Price Index - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Personal Consumption (First Release) - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (First Release) - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Employment Cost Index - Q4 (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). In general, analysts expect the data to be positive, which can support the dollar. According to forecasts, the growth of the US economy has slowed down in the 4th quarter compared to the 3d, but the growth still remains stable.

14:45 ** Chicago PMI - January (USA)
14:45 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Analysts expect that Chicago PMI index in January has decreased, but the rate is stable at above 50, which means the growth.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. What's the next?

Now we have a complete set - the graphic pattern "head and shoulders" has realized fulfilling the minimum program for the correction of all the upward movement in January. Is this the end? It is likely that the upward movement still may, but it is no need to hurry with purchases until we will receive a confirmation from for one thing computer indicators. On the other hand, the reached Fibo level may be only an intermediate goal of reducing, and we should be ready for this because there are other levels of Fibonacci support, as well as the trend line, and this is a very different purpose. Today's data on the dynamics of the American economy in the 4th quarter may influence on the dynamics of quotations, because if situation in the second world's economy is not as good as expected, gold will get its support amid investors' run in assets-havens such as gold.

We fix a result of the short position and wait for one of the following conditions. In the case of the breakthrough of yesterday's extremum of the decline wave at 1252, we will open the order to sell with the goal 1220, where is the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the January increase, as well as the line of a medium-term uptrend support. We can take into account the growth scenario after receiving confirmation from the indicators, such as the intersection of a price with moving averages values. The graph shows moving averages with 25 period (shift 5), and with 3 period (3 shift).

USD/JPY. Failed Expectations

On the last meeting FOMC leaders got off with platitudes and it was expected, but, if so, what can we do without a fundamental mover?.. The first thing that comes to mind is to use all the possibilities in working with support and resistance levels on the rebound in fairly long time sideways, which replaced the wave of growth after the correction 38.2% of the growth in October-December 2014. Seemingly a very "soft" monetary policy in Japan and a quite "hard" in the United States should contribute to a further growth. Thus, it seems that reached levels generally reflect the expectations of the market and we need something else.

Today's publication of preliminary data on US GDP in the 4th quarter can become this "something else". As expected, after rising by 5% in the 3rd quarter, this time we will see an increase by 3%. Exceeding of this indicator which is already embedded in prices will give an impetus to further growth and the achievement of upper lateral border of the current channel, and then the upper limit of the above-mentioned "triangle". If bulls have enough passion the main goal may be the Fibonacci extension level from the January growth at 120.69.

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Vista Brokers: USD/JPY Remains within Narrow Price Range

From Thursday to Friday Japan has published a large portion of statistics, and the data were highly controversial.

The consumer price index in December rose slightly larger than analysts had expected - by 2.4% vs. 2.3%, and this is probably due to the increase in sales tax. Inflation excluding volatile food prices rose by 2.5% vs. 2.6%.

Production in Japan is slowly but surely recovering. In December, the industrial output in the country increased by 1% mom and by 0.3% yoy, which is slightly less than it was expected. Exports to the USA grew due to the increased stability of the US economy.

Vista Brokers analysts note that weak consumer spending and low inflation make the achievement of inflation target difficult for the Bank of Japan. Although the decline in oil prices can be a positive factor for the country, because Japan is exporting almost all of the fuel.

Labor market data came out positive. In December, the unemployment rate in Japan fell to the lowest in more than 15 years - 3.4%. The number of employees has grown, including both employed in full-time and employed part-time. Despite this, the income of households in September rose by 2.1% compared to the last year, when adjusted for inflation corresponds to a decline in real income by 0.8%.

Analysts say that the yen against the dollar for the second week in a row is trading in a tight range of 117.3-118.8. The pair can leave these boundaries only due to the influence of such a factor as different vectors of monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The Japanese regulator continues the program of quantitative easing, while the Fed is aimed at tightening monetary policy. Against this background, USD/JPY has all the prerequisites for the restoration of the uptrend.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is waiting. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fears that new stimulation measures can lead to excessive reduction of the national currency.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Fell to 5.5 Years Minimum

It is expected that the next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates. It puts pressure on the Aussie, and on the morrow of it, on the other currencies of commodity producers.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the last trading day the currency has finished at $ 0.7794. From the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar has fallen by 4.7%, and this is the third consecutive monthly fall.

The probability that the central bank of Australia will really cut interest rates on the next meeting on 3 February is very high. Futures on bonds imply a 70 percent probability of such a scenario.
Morgan Stanley has already advised its clients to sell the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen at 85.00 with a stop-loss order placed at 94.00.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Rising Oil Hardly Supported Loonie

The Canadian dollar is increasingly weak against the US currency. After January 21, when the Bank of Canada has unexpectedly cut interest rates, the country's national currency fell to six-year low, and since then is gradually losing ground.

Vista Brokers analysts note that last Friday, the Canadian dollar has gotten a little support amid rising oil prices. March WTI futures on the Comex per day increased by 8.3%, to 48.24 dollars per barrel. Brent futures in London rose by 6.6%, to 52.50 dollars per barrel. Apparently, the reason of oil rising was the data on declining production in the United States that has the potential to reduce the amount of produced oil. Also, many market participants have closed short positions on oil futures on the last day of the month.

Let's go back to the Canadian dollar - at the end of the last week, it was worth 79.87 cents, and some experts expect a further decline even to 75 cents. On Friday, the International Monetary Fund gave some comments on the situation in Canada. According to the IMF, the main inland risk for the country is a possible "shock in the housing market", and the external one is tightening of the Fed monetary policy. Factors affecting the Canadian economy are the economic slowdown in the world and the decline in oil prices.

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Market Pulse 02.02

On Monday, some European countries and Canada will publish data on the PMI index for the manufacturing sector. During the US trading session, the USA will publish the manufacturing index ISM.

8:15 ** Manufacturing PMI - January (Spain)
8:45 ** Manufacturing PMI - January (Italy)
8:50 ** Manufacturing PMI - January (France)
8:55 ** Manufacturing PMI - January (Germany)
9:00 ** Manufacturing PMI - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). According to analysts, data on the index of purchasing managers in manufacturing in substantially all euro zone countries in January will be released at the level of the previous month. Growth or overachievement of the indicator may be favorable for the single currency.

9:30 *** Manufacturing PMI - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). According to analysts, in January, the index of purchasing managers in manufacturing in the UK rose slightly. Growth or overachievement of the indicator may be favorable for the pound.

13:30 ** Core PCE Price Index - December (US)
13:30 ** Personal Spending - December (US)
13:30 ** Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Personal consumption expenditure deflator shows the annual growth rate of prices for consume goods and services for Americans. The Fed has long been tracking this particular indicator as inflation.

15:00 *** ISM Manufacturing PMI - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). It is expected that in January the index has shown a slight decline. Growth or overachievement of the indicator may be favorable for the currency.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD. Waiting for Support on Support Level

All seemingly goes on - trades continue to be maintained in the long-term price channel, which started back in 2011, when the pair had reached a historical high amid rising rates of the Australian Central Bank. And this despite the fact that most all the major economies of the world felt themselves not so well, being far from the tightening of monetary policy. Aussie enjoyed the favor of investors, attracting large amounts of money in the economy from global investors. However, then the RBA seemed to realize the risks of such a high rate of national currency, and in the period of 2011-2013 reduced the rate eight times, bringing its level to a historic low of 2.5%.

Currently the price has reached and even locally overcomed the channel line of the mentioned trend. At that point another support level was reached, - the level of the medium-term trend, and at the same correctional Fibo level 61.8% of growth during 2008-2011. Given the context, it is necessary to pay special attention to the current situation and be prepared for a variety of scenarios. Thus, in the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday many questions can be solved by giving the final vector to the pair movement. It will be the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and it can bring some surprises. The regulator can draw attention to the absence of inflationary risks and on recent actions of some world's central banks for monetary policy easing, and hint at the possibility of similar stepsfrom the RBA. It is recommended to wait for the event before taking positive steps in accordance with the reaction of the market.

EUR/USD. Does Everybody Want to Sell Euro?..

Once again market players have chosen to close their eyes to facts which do not fit their view of the world, because forecasts are relentless - according to economists the dollar in FOREX must continue to increase. There are many reasons of it: a stability of the US economy, growing much faster than other developed countries (about 5% y/y) and a relatively stable permanent reduction in the unemployment rate and the program of quantitative easing which has already become a part of a history. Thus, the ECB has only announced its QE, whereas in Japan, all in full swing. It is clear that all of this is reflected in the growth of government US Treasury bonds yields. Although they are now on historically meager levels 1.9% (10-year), but in comparison with other ones US bonds are in the lead. And here is the eternal question again – is everything we have talked about taken into account in current prices? Only the time will give the answer, and now we see the downward trend at all levels, including the medium-to-date, on which we, first of all, will make an impression on the future prospects for the major currency pair.

Price is currently located at 1.13, where is the correction Fibo level 38.2% after a rebound from the lows over the past 11 years. The ATR with period 21 shows volatility about 136 points. Such a value has been noticed for the last time at the junction of 2011-2012, during the height of the European debt crisis. In general, we have everything to work to increase with the aim 1.1620 with all certain conditions: trend line break, and (that is very desirable) receiving a portion of disappointing US data. Such a data may be the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the US economy publication by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) - expected to decline to 54.9 points from 55.5. In turn, good data may mark a new wave of the pair falling (especially given the general feeling in favor of the dollar) to the area of 1.1096. For this price will have to pass the level 1.1261.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Takes a Lead from Weak GDP

On Monday, the yen has reached a 2-week high against the dollar amid commodity currencies falling. Concerns about the economic situation in China put pressure on these currencies.
Vista Brokers analysts point out that today, in early trade, the dollar has fallen against the Japanese currency to a minimum from January 16 - 116.64 yen. For comparison, at the close of trading on Friday, USD/JPY was trading at 117.52.

According to analysts, the dollar now looks vulnerable against the yen and it is also due to the weak GDP data for the 4th quarter, published in the US on Friday. US economic growth was lower than the market had expected – 2.6% versus 3.0%. Today, investors will wait for the data on ISM manufacturing index in the United States which can attest to the weakness of the dollar or help greenback to regain lost ground. So far, analysts expect the index to decline in January.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD. And we Go to... South

So, our wildest expectations were fulfilled - the Reserve Bank of Australia had decided to decline the interest rate to a new historic low (2.25%), referring to a low inflation in the context of energy prices fall, as well as, to actions of other CB, which are not hesitate to pursue an aggressive policy incentives. "Why they can, and we can not?" - the RBA thought and lowered the rate, also mentioning just in case about still overvalued Aussie.
Thus, the path continues to the south, and now we can already say with certainty about the breakout of the Fibonacci correction 61.8% of the growth in 2008-2011 (and this is important), and the fact that the dynamics of the pair in all measurements is within the clearly defined price channel directed to the south.

Anyway, despite receiving an iron argument in favor of selling the pair, the technical picture forces us to make informed decisions at all stages of the movement. So, at the moment we state the formal achievement of the channel in the medium-term and short-term trend, and here classics of the genre requires fixing the intermediate results of the transaction, and than, when the correction to the area of the resistance line comes, to resume work in the trend.

GOLD. Wait a Little Longer

The gold has achieved our first identified goals (which may be counted as the minimum program executio in respect of correction under the figure «Head & Shoulders») which gives a reason to look for the point to enter a long position once all the necessary prerequisites appear. Also note that the price has tested the level of support fit in with a correctional Fibo level 38.2% of the growth in first two-thirds of January. Now, after a quite conspicuous and suitable as a primary bounce up was formed, this is the only thing to do.

So, to be considered that the correction is over, we need a break of the resistance line, which is connecting gradually lowering highs, to confirm the presence of the uptrend by formation of gradually highering lows and highs. In other words, closing the day above $ 1285 will be seen as an opportunity to purchase with very ambitious goals, the fixation of which requires further analysis and will depend on many factors coming permanently.

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Vista Brokers: EUR/USD Remains in Narrow Range

At the end of the last week, the EUR/USD has stabilized, and on Monday the pair has remained in the same range of about 80 points. Monday trades passed with a slight increase of the pair.

Vista Brokers analysts note that mostly all statistics published the first trading day was positive for the euro. Eurozone PMI index for the manufacturing coincided with the forecast of 51.0 against 50.6 a month earlier. Thus, the indicator showed the strongest monthly growth in the last six months due to the increase in new orders. In Italy and Spain PMI index for the manufacturing surpassed market expectations, while in Germany and France the index came out worse than forecast.

American statistics did not please investors. At first it was reported that US consumer spending fell in December, which means Americans are cautious and in no hurry to spend money, despite the decline in gasoline prices and a steady growth in the labor market. Personal spending fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month and the forecast of 0.1%. Recall that consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the United States and is a key factor in the growth.

Later came the index of business activity in the US industry from the ISM, which disappointed investors who had expected 54.9 in January. Index fell more than expected - to 53.5, although the value above 50 indicates that economic growth continues.

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Market Pulse 03.02

Early Tuesday morning in Australia came out a large portion of important data, including building approvals, trade balance, the RBA interest rate decision, together with the accompanying statement. Between publications that are only scheduled to be released, the most important may be called PMI index for the UK construction sector.

9:30 *** Construction PMI - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The situation in the construction industry in Britain is closely monitored, so the publication can affect markets. Analysts predict a slight decline of the index in January.

13:30 ** Raw Materials Price Index - December (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). A leading indicator of price pressure in the country. Important for Canada, as it exports a lot of raw materials. Disappointing data may put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

15:00 ** Factory Orders - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The change in volume of production orders is often a leading indicator of the industrial production dynamics for several months.

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Vista Brokers: RBA Decision was Unexpected

On Tuesday, February 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia has announced the next interest rate cut - to the value of 2.25%. The decision was a real surprise for the market, because most analysts had expected that the regulator woukd keep interest rates at 2.50% for quite a long time.

Vista Brokers analysts identified factors that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has called causes of rates reducing. They are contained in the accompanying statement. Thus, the rate of economic growth in Australia is low, demand is weakening, inflation is low, the Australian dollar is still overvalued, the real estate market raises fears, peak in unemployment may be higher than had been expected previously. Among other reasons Stevens has called the fact that monetary policy in the major economies of the world is becoming more stimulative, obviously referring to the ECB.

Leaders of the central Australian bank hopes that the rate cut will support the demand, will help to achieve inflation targets in 1-2 years, will reduce the rate of the Australian dollar, which is necessary for balanced economic growth.

Market reaction to the RBA rate cut followed immediately. The Australian dollar fell sharply against the dollar to 0.7750, where the pair stabilized. The New Zealand dollar followed the aussie. Analysts say that a further decline in AUD/USD is likely, because 130 points is a slight decrease for such news. In comparison, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand only hinted at mitigation, kiwi fell by 240 points. After the ECB's decision to launch QE, the euro/dollar fell by more than 500 points.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Vector Moves Down

The pair quotes remain in hibernation, but if you look closer, it is still very slowly leaving the familiar range, tending more and more to the south direction. The reason is firstly the latest data from the US, the majority of which (such as GDP data - 2.6%, forecast 3.0%) was below expected levels. So, the next resistance level moves to the today extremum 118, while support is now at 116.85. In the long term the dollar is expected to be supported with the ongoing quantitative easing program of the Bank of Japan to achieve inflation at 2% per year after 15 years of deflation. On this occasion, today the BoJ deputy governor Kiku Iwata spoke. He assured that everything is under control, but the situation is somewhat spoiled by the current decline in oil prices, as well as increased sales tax.

It is recommended to work within the formed channel using its boundaries to work on the rebound. Trend indicators are useless now, so we should look for the rebound confirmation from oscillators using the exit of the curve from overbought and oversold zones. At the moment, we hold a short position with a view to 116.50-116.85.

EUR/USD Gets off the Ground

It seems that the balance of buyers has finally heavy enough to be able to talk seriously about a correctional scenario for EUR/USD. The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has showed the possibility to negotiate with the new Greek government, agreeing to some concessions. This gave the bulls confidence, which led to an increase in the pair at the moment almost by 180 points. However, after that the movement has been corrected, but we see clearly a change of moods. Today we expect a number of macroeconomic publications, both from the euro zone (retail sales, business activity in the services sector), and the United States, where preliminary data will be released (prior to the official on Friday) for the growth of the number of jobs from ADP, as well as activity in the service sector according to the Institute for Supply Management. All these data are able to provide additional impetus to the pair, as well as to freeze the status quo prior to the publication of the said employment figures from the US Department of Labor. In general, many economists think, that current prices already consist everything, including any impact of a full-scale quantitative easing program, which was announced at the last ECB meeting.

In the case of growth scenario, the first target is 1.1620. Here is the Fibonacci extension level 161.8% from the January pair rebound, and here goes the channel line of the already confirmed short-term uptrend. The nearest support is 1.1261, and its breakthrough will renew pressure on the euro.

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Vista Brokers: Greek Debt Plan Brought EUR/USD out of Hibernation

On Tuesday, world's stock markets rose amid news about debt restructuring plan proposed by Greece. Constructive proposal of the new Greek authorities caused positive sentiments towards the euro zone. The US dollar was trading under pressure.

In last two weeks the world's media were actively discussing further development of the situation in Greece, where as a result of recent parliamentary elections the radical party "Syriza" has come to power. Representatives of international financial institutions and European countries vie stated that the debt remission is impossible for the EU, the ECB and the IMF. Everyone was waiting that Athens submits such requirements and use its possible exit from the euro zone as a blackmail.

But it seems that the Greek government has taken a different tack, offering international lenders to conduct a partial exchange of existing bonds for so-called "growth-linked" bonds. Greek finance minister Janis Varufakis explained that part of the debt, which currently stands at more than 300 billion euros, Athens offers to swap into bonds linked to the level of the economic growth. Another part was proposed to swap into "eternal" bonds. When the proposal was announced, Greek stocks rose on average by 4.6%. European stocks also began to rise. At the same time, the dollar index fell against a basket of currencies by 0.6%.

As Vista Brokers analysts sat, news that Greece will negotiate with international lenders, rather than give up the debt, brought EUR/USD out of hibernation, where it was in the last days, and caused a rally of the single currency.

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Market Pulse 04.02

On Wednesday, some European countries and the euro zone will publish data on the PMI index for the services sector. In the US and Canada some important indexes will be released, which may cause the growth of the market volatility.

8:00 ** Halifax House Price Index - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). One of the oldest indicators of the UK property market, which is always in the focus of investors.

8:55 ** Final Services PMI - January (Germany)
8:55 ** PMI Composite - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in Germany the above mentioned indices remain at the level of December.

9:00 ** Final Services PMI - January (euro zone)
9:00 ** PMI Composite - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in euro zone the above mentioned indices remain at the level of December.

9:30 *** Final Services PMI - January (UK)
9:30 ** PMI Composite - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect the growth of the index, which can support the pound.

10:00 ** Retail Sales - December (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). According to forecasts, the volume of retail trade in the euro area decreased, which means a reduction in consumer activity and may put pressure on the euro.

13:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). This index is the main reference to official statistics, sometimes causing strong market fluctuations. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the dollar.

15:00 *** Ivey PMI - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in Canada the index will show a slight increase.

15:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - January (USA)
15:00 ** ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The value of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA is at a high level, and in January, analysts also expect a small increase - up to 56.6.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Completed its Rally

During the last few days, oil has increased in price by 19% and is now correcting from highs in anticipation of data on crude oil inventories in the United States and amid general concerns about demand.

Vista Brokers analysts say that Wednesday morning March futures for Brent were traded at $ 57.65 per barrel compared to $ 57.91 per barrel at the close of market on Tuesday. WTI futures are at $ 52.42 per barrel compared to $ 53.05 per barrel on Tuesday.

After the end of the last week, when oil prices had started to actively grow, investors began to talk about the fact that the oil market bottomed after seven straight months dropping and losing in price about 60%. During few days oil has grown by more than 20% from the minimum recorded on January 13 that technically means the beginning of "bull" market. But it seems that the bottom has not been reached.

On Wednesday fundamental factors pressured on oil. Firstly, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the US stocks last week rose by more than 6 million barrels. Secondly, a top Chinese energy company CNOOC Ltd announced that this year will significantly reduce the investment to adapt to the reduction in oil prices. The third is that index of business activity in the services sector in China in January rose at the slowest pace in six months. These data were known early Wednesday.

It is obvious that such a strong decline in oil prices that we have seen during the last few months, has a strong impact on the world economy. Some analysts still insist that the fall of the market in the long term will be benign. Decline in oil prices will stimulate economic growth, which in turn will support demand for commodities, including oil.

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Vista Brokers: Market Fixed Profit on AUD/USD

On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar has come up – investors took profits after yesterday's AUD/USD fall to five-year low. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Tuesday the Australian dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia has unexpectedly cut interest rates.

After lowering the rate by 0.25% to a record 2.25% the RBA stood on a par with the world's central banks, which began 2015 with the next steps of monetary policy easing. Note that 2014 the Reserve Bank of Australia finished with the message about plans to keep interest rates at 2.50% throughout 2015, to support the mining sector. Therefore, yesterday's decision of the central bank was an absolute surprise for the markets.

Long-term forecasts for the Australian immediately began to be revised down. So Goldman Sachs chief economist Tim Toohey has lowered the forecast from $ 0.7500 to $ 0.7200 for the end of 2015.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. What the Old Lady Says?

During last weeks the GBP/USD did not show any interesting trade opportunities, however, as is often happens, right now, a few hours before publication of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision the picture is very pretty. Here we have all the signs of graphic reversal pattern "head and shoulders" formation, here it is the proximity of the trendline (and not just any, but the very same), here is also a recent attempt to break the next resistance level (1.5222). Well, now it's Old lady business, because BOE today can reduce the rateexpectedly and unexpectedly at the same time. Expectedly because a number of other central banks has also all surprisingly reduced rates or softened monetary policy during their last meetings. Of course, the Bank of England did not even think about this before, but on the contrary, according to the distribution of votes in the last few sessions at the end of last year, even was considering rates raising. However, times change, and it will be possible to take a moment at very low rates of inflation.

Thus, it is recommended to wait for the publication of the BOE decision (12.00 GMT) and to work depending on the solution and the market's reaction to it. If the BOE reduce rates, a reducing aim for the pair will be a minimum of 23 January, and of the last year and a half - 1.4950. If rates remain at the same level (0.5%), we will expect the final break of the neckline, which will cause the achievement of the 61.8% correction of the reduction wave in December 2014 - January 2015, where the minimum growth target points out in such cases (the distance from the highest point of the head to the neckline, deferred from the breakout point).

GOLD. Everybody Sits on Fence...

Apparently, market players are not ready to take decisive action in relation to gold. Correction of the January growth continues and it is likely that there will be nothing interesting here up to tomorrow's publication of the US labor market statistics. Support still is at the correctional Fibonacci level 38.2% of the mentioned wave of growth (tested twice), while growth is limited by the resistance line drawn through several successive downward highs (visible when approaching). Another possible option when gold will get off the ground, is the support line of the current uptrend achievement. Note that the growth began after testing of correctional Fibo level 61.8% of the growth in the period 2008-2011 when gold was very popular amid raging global financial crisis.

In this situation, it is important not to take active steps ahead of time. So we should wait for a break of 1308 level, which is corresponding to the ended ascending wave extremum, or be ready to buy at the approach to the uptrend line. In the case of one of these scenarios realizationour targets will be based on the actual technical picture.

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Vista Brokers: Positive News did not Support Euro

On Tuesday, European stock markets rose up amid positive earnings reports for Q4, strong statistics for the euro zone and progress in negotiations on Greek debt restructuring.

Representatives of the new Greek government held several meetings with the "top officials" of the European Union. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with European Commission President Juncker, President of the European Council and the European Parliament Tusk Schultz. A Greek Finance Minister visited the ECB president Draghi. Athens also reported about upcoming negotiations with the IMF on a partial exchange of Greek debt to "growth-linked" bonds.

Among positive statistics for the eurozone, Vista Brokers analysts paid attention to data on the composite PMI index, which in January rose to a six-month high - 52.6, as well as PMI index for the services sector - 52.7. Note that in Italy and Germany these indices have also showed good results, beating forecasts. And only in France data came slightly lower than expected. Retail sales in the euro area continued to rise in December, the growth continues for the third month in a row.

Despite this positive news background, EUR/USD only managed to push off from session lows and recover from 1.1437 to 1.1470. The pair failed to rise up to the level of 1.15.

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Market Pulse 05.02

On Thursday, the economic calendar is not too saturated, but many publications are quite important and can affect the dynamics of currency pairs. In the UK, the central bank will announce the decision on interest rates, in Canada and the US data on trade balance will be published. And, of course, the market will wait for data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.

7:00 ** Factory Orders - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Factory orders is often a leading indicator of the industrial production dynamics for several months. Positive data are favorable for the euro, and in December, analysts expect the rate growth.

12:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - February (UK)
12:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - February (UK)
12:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The market does not expect any surprises from the Bank of England, though, judging by recent events, investors' expectations are not always met with reality. For example, nobody has expected the rate reducing by 0.25 percentage points from the Reserve Bank of Australia or strict franc/euro peg refusal from the Bank of Switzerland.

13:30 *** Trade Balance - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Trade Balance - December (US)

Strong impact on the market (CAD, USD). Trade balance is the difference between export and import . Positive value is favorable for the national currency, reflecting the inflow of money into the country.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Prelim Nonfarm Productivity - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Prelim Unit Labor Costs - Q4 (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data on the US labor market often have a significant impact on the market. Analysts expect that during the reporting week, the number of initial claims for benefits was increasing, and if the data is better than forecasts, it can support the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Greece is in Market Focus Again

As Vista Brokers analysts have predicted, the euro is very sensitive to any news on Greece. Earlier this week, the single currency was supported when the Greek government has put forward a constructive proposal for a partial exchange of debt for growth-linked bonds. The authorities in Athens have also hold some meetings with representatives of international lenders to discuss the proposal, and investors have gotten a hope for a positive solution of the situation in Greece.

But on Wednesday night, the European Central Bank announced that from now Greek bonds will not be accepted as collateral for loans from the central bank. Amid this news EUR/USD dropped from 1.1483 to 1.1391. On Thursday morning, the pair rebounded slightly, and then continued to decline.

The ECB's decision was a surprise for the market because after the meeting with the ECB president Mario Draghi Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis said that the central bank would "whatever it takes" support each member country, including Greece. But it seems that the meeting of Varufakis and Draghi was not as efficient as it seemed to the Minister of Finance.

Experts believe that in this way the ECB wants to put pressure on the Greek government and force it to agree with the terms of the old loan program, which include austerity for the country. The decision of the central bank increases the uncertainty in the "Greek problem", because now for a safe way out, Athens will need to overcome this obstacle too.

The ECB decision had an impact on the stock markets. Both in Europe and in Asia the major stock indexes opened on Thursday with a reduction. Britain's FTSE lost 0.6%, German DAX - 0.9%, the French CAC - 1.1%. In Japan, the Nikkei, which on Wednesday scored 2%, now went down by 0.8%. The index of Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan MSCI fell by 0.1% after rising by 1% a day earlier.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. Cable is Testing Trend Line

The Bank of England decided not to go on a leash of "alarmists" and to keep rates at the usual level (0.5%). As it was expected, in the case of keeping the monetary policy unchanged (in a context of easing policy by some other central banks in order to achieve inflation growth) GBP/USD has gotten a good chance to continue the correction growth. This is what we saw yesterday - "cable" in the moment has added a figure closing the day very confident. However, the way up is thorny, because for its continuation the pair needs to overcome serious obstacles in terms of technology and not only. On the one hand, the reversal graphic figure "Inverted Head and Shoulders" that we have mentioned in the previous review was formed, however, the minimum growth target is not reached yet. It does not pay to persist in such situation, because the tested line of over a six-month downtrend is a very strong deterrent and very important for the market.

What we should expect now? The answer is - wait for data on the US labor market, because in fact they will determine the future dynamics of the dollar with respect to any and all competitors. To break through the trend line values should be weak and far from forecasts, which call into question the further Fed tightening. In this case, the first target of the growth will be 61.8% of the descent of December 2014 - January 2015, where is also a target to work with our «Head-n-Shoulders» - 1.5465. Rebound from the trend on positive data can once again lead quotes to 1.50.

USD/CAD. At the Crossroads

A correlation of the pair quotes with the dynamics of oil prices is one of the determining factors. We note that Canada is one of the leading oil exporters in the world and the impact of changes in hydrocarbon prices for the country's economy can not be overestimated. Thus, the decrease under the correction of large-scale growth in January has almost reached the 38.2% Fibonacci correction, which can be a deterrent to further price declining, and where a new impulse wave to new multi-year highs can begin to form. There is a high probability that a lot can be solved today, while the ministries of Canada and the United States will simultaneously publish data on the labor market in January: the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs.

Above mentioned statistics (13.30 GMT) will be a signal for many market players to enter the market. We do not recommend to enter directly at the time of publication due to possible problems with excessive volatility, but to place pending orders for the breakdown at the nearest minimum - 1.2350 and maximum - 1.2591. Setting targets in case of the activation of orders will depend on the future price, and considering the possible scale of the movement it does not pay to hurry.

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Vista Brokers: Winter Economic Forecast Stimulated Euro to Increase

Thursday morning began with the reduction of the euro on news that the ECB no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral that significantly limit the ability of credit for the Greek financial system. Information overwhelmed market participants who only had cheered up after the news of Athens negotiations with international creditors.

However, as Vista Brokers analysts say, the euro decline did not last long - the currency returned to growth versus the US dollar after the European Commission has improved its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone. Now the EC considers that in 2015 the GDP of the monetary union will increase by 1.3% against the previous forecast of 1.1%, and in 2016 - by 1.9%. The forecast for unemployment rate has also been reduced from 11.3% to 11.2%.

However, there was a negative aspect: the experts expect the inflation to reduce by 0.1% in 2015, and if the forecast is justified, for the euro area this will be the first deflation in its history.

However, after the announcement of the European Commission updated forecasts, the euro rose to $ 1.1425 from $ 1.1344 at the close of US trading session on Wednesday. In addition, the euro rose by more than 1% in the pair with the Swiss franc. Analysts report that the Swiss National Bank buys back the single currency to weaken the franc.

Among important statistics of the day we can note results of the Bank of England meeting. Asit was expected the British central bank has left interest rates unchanged at -0.5%. Amid this news pound strengthened to a maximum of three weeks against the dollar.

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Market Pulse 06.02

On Friday, New Zealand is celebrating Treaty of Waitangi, Australia has already published the RBA Monetary Policy Statement for Q1 2015. The day will be rather active and full with important statistics, especially in Canada and in the United States.

7:00 ** Industrial Production - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts predict a slight increase in German industrial production in December. Rate increase or exceeding the forecast is favorable for the currency.

9:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - December (UK)
9:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - December (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Trade balance is the difference between exports and imports. High values are favorable for the currency, because they reflect a smaller money outflow from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).

13:30 *** Building Permits - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Unemployment Rate - January (Canada)
13:30 *** Employment Change - January (Canada)
13:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - January (Canada)
13:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts expect the oppositely directed data. Growth in building permits and the number of employees can have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar. However, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1%.

13:30 *** Unemployment Rate - January (USA)
13:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - January (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - January (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - January (USA)
13:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - January (USA)
13:30 ** Participation Rate - January (USA)
13:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - January (USA)
13:30 ** Establishment Employment Survey Annual Revisions - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). A large portion of data on the labor market may increase the volatility of the market. In general, analysts expect not too positive data.

17:45 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Dennis Lockhart is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a voting member of the FOMC, that why his opinion affects the monetary policy committee, so Lockhart comments can cause volatility in the markets.

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Vista Brokers: Possible Fed Rates Increase is Long-term Support Factor for Dollar

On Thursday, yet another central bank has decided to decrease interest rates - Bank of Denmark has lowered the deposit rate from -0.50% to -0.75%. It is noteworthy that for the Kingdom it is the fourth decline in the past three weeks. Thus the regulator is trying to deal with the strengthening of the Danish krone against the euro.

So far, the Fed remains the only regulator of largest world's economies, tuned to the increase in rates, and it will provide support to the US dollar in the long run.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that this has started for the index of the US currency with increase by 5% in January, which is the largest monthly increase since May 2012. Investors have expected that some central banks announce new measures of monetary policy easing, while the Federal Reserve keeps course of its tightening.

Such is indeed the case. In mid-January, the SNB released franc to the "free floating". In late January, the ECB made a statement about the launch of an ambitious quantitative easing program. And then one by one the world's banks began to cut rates. The biggest surprise for the market was the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to a record low 2.25%. Immediately thereafter, the Australian dollar plummeted to a new low of 5.5 years, and the stock market rose to a peak of May 2008.

The Canadian dollar also fell to five-year low against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada has cut its main rate to 0.75%. Analysts believe that in this way the bank, which never cut interest rates since 2010, is protecting from lower oil prices. This resource takes a large share of exports in Canada and Australia.

Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and other banks diverges more and more, contributing to the strengthening of the dollar. But does the Fed really ready to raise interest rates? At this point there are different opinions. For example, billionaire Warren Buffett said that for the Fed it would be "very difficult" to raise rates this year because of too strong dollar.

And experts of Congress Budget Office (CBO) believe that the United States may "save" more than $ 2.3 trillion, if interest rates will be holden at current levels until 2025. They point out that the preservation of US interest rates at a low level in the coming years may restrain the growth of the budget deficit and debt load.

Meanwhile, the market expects that the Fed will raise rates as early as mid-2015.

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Vista Brokers: Markets Wait for US Labor Market Data

During the US trading session on Friday a large portion of data on the US labor market will be published. Among it is closely monitored by the market non-farm payrolls. Vista Brokers analysts note that in anticipation of the important statistics, market participants are not very active. Euro this morning is declining against the dollar after having surged 1.2% the previous day. The growth is observed in the Asian stock markets.

Analysts expect that the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US has rose in January by 234,000 after the December growth by 252,000. Perhaps this will be the 12th consecutive month, when non-farm payrolls grows by more than 200,000 per month, and the US economy has not seen such situation since 1994. There are also more bold predictions. For example, chief forex analyst at Standard Chartered Callum Henderson believes that the indicator will rise by 260,000 in January. The growth rate and the excess of the forecast will strengthen investors' expectations about the Fed raising interest rates later this year.

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