Guest IFC Markets Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Let us consider the EUR/CHF currency pair on the H4 chart. We have chosen it because no important macroeconomic data are expected today from the USA. Yesterday Switzerland announced several economic indicators for January. They turned out to be slightly better-than-expected. Among other things, deflation marked a decrease. Our analysts suggest that it is a factor underpinning the franc. Forthcoming Swiss important data will be issued only on February, 18-19. Until then, Swiss franc may strengthen against euro. The single currency can be undermined by crisis in Greece and tomorrow Germany inflation report. If we look at the H4 chart, the EUR/CHF has been traded at a narrow neutral range for quite a long time. The corridor was shaped by Swiss franc pulling back after the intense growth. To recap, the Swiss National Bank abandoned the fixed euro-franc exchange rate on Jan. 15, 2015. The EUR/CHF chart shows a sharp fall this day, followed by rebounding to 61.8% Fibonacci level. We suppose this movement to be succeeded with decline. The RSI-Bars oscillator displays downtrend as its bars went below 50. This is a good “bearish” sign implying euro to weaken against Swiss franc. Consequently, we do not exclude further downward momentum after the fractal support is breached at 1.04116: you may place a sell pending order there. Stop loss may be placed at 1.0592, indicated most recently by Donchian channel. This mark can be regarded as the resistance line at the moment. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic or Donchian signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 1,04116 Stop loss above 1,0592 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today at 10:30 СЕТ the Bank of England will issue inflation report and hold a press-conference with Mark Carney (the governor). Most market participants expect inflation forecast to be cut and focus attention on Mark Carney's account for the prospective of the Bank of England rate hike. He is supposed to comment on real estate market and mortgage rate dynamics. It's hard to predict the effect it may produce on the pound. It has slumped by 13% since mid-July and is currently traded in a narrow range. The pound may strengthen against the dollar after the release of British economic data today. Important indicators also become public today in the US: Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 13:30 CET and Business Inventories at 15:00 CET. Our analysts believe the tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. Careful investors are recommended to wait for the data publication though. To be noted, less important Construction Output will be released in the UK tomorrow. It may underpin the pound (in case today it advances). If we look at the H4 chart, the GBP/USD has been traded in a narrow neutral range for quite a long time. The corridor was shaped by the pound rebounding after the sharp fall. We do not rule out that the GBP/USD may finish the sideways trend moving higher, backed with today's positive macroeconomic news. Consequently, a “bullish” momentum may continue as the fractal resistance is breached at 1.52985: a buy pending order may be placed there. Stop loss may be placed at 1.5195, indicated most recently by Donchian channel. This mark can be regarded as the support line at the moment. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic or Donchian signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered. Since our forecast relies on fundamental analysis, we leave the room for opening sell positions. It is possible, if the Bank of England statement and American statistic fail to meet expectations. In this case the fractal levels indicated are to be swapped. Position Buy Buy stop above 1,52985 Stop loss below 1,5195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let’s examine the EUR/USD currency pair on the D1 chart. The support level at 1.10951 acts as a turning point: the bearish trend is over and bulls are taking action. A V-shaped trend reversal is observed. The trend indicator changed the bias into the bullish one followed by the trend line reversal. The reversal is also confirmed by the RSI-Bars(13) oscillator: the next bar is ready to break the key resistance level at 46.7954%. We expect it to coincide with the price level breakout at 1.15486, which can be used for placing a pending buy order. Conservative traders are recommended to confirm the breakout based on the oscillator signal 47%. Stop loss is to be placed below the fractal at 1.12449. This mark is confirmed by the latest Bill Williams fractal, Donchian Channel lower boundary and the intersection of two trend lines. The mark is worth paying a closer look as this is where the bullish pattern called “absorption” was formed (marked in yellow on the chart). The value of this pattern is strengthened by the fact that the bearish candlestick in it is the doji. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved near the next fractal low, following ParabolicSAR values. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the Buy position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered and bears are gaining ground. Position Buy Buy stop above 1.15486 Stop loss below 1.12449 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We would like to draw your attention to AUD/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. US financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of Presidents’ Day. Today the trading is performed on a regular basis, but there is no special US macroeconomic statistics released today. Monetary policy meeting minutes were published early this morning by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We deem that no significant information was announced; anyway this was precisely what has pushed the Aussie higher. According to previous surveys, more than 60% of investors expected the RBA to cut again the rate to 2% at the next meeting scheduled on the third of March. In our opinion, it is now difficult to state certainly whether it happens or not. Especially that the most important Australian economic data will be released only on the second of March, just before the RBA meeting, and before that less significant statistics will be published. The lower the probability of a rate cut, the more chances has the Australian dollar to strengthen. The AUD/USD was confident enough moving higher on the H4 chart and leaving the triangle. After that, there was a slight pullback and early this morning quite a noticeable white candlestick was formed. As we can observe, the triangle leaving takes place within the bullish channel. We believe this confirms trend. The bullish divergence is observed on the RSI-Bars chart: it was observed almost all the time until the price formed a triangle. Note also that the RSI-Bars last bar hasn’t deepened lower than 50. This is a good bullish sign which means the strengthening of the Australian dollar. Further development of the bullish momentum is not ruled out after the fractal resistance breakout at 0.7815. This mark can be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss may be placed at the last Parabolic signal, which can currently act as a support line – 0.7726. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic values. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered. Position Buy Buy stop above 0.7815 Stop loss below 0.7726 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Today we would like to focus your attention to Personal Composite Instrument (PCI) &BRENT_RUB, i.e. Brent crude oil to Russian ruble on the H4 chart. They are highly interconnected because Russia is the third largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and the United States. The share of hydrocarbons in the country’s exports is 73%. When Brent crude oil price (denominated in USD) advances, as a rule, Russian ruble is sagging on the USD/RUB chart. This means that it is strengthening against the US dollar. You can implement the &BRENT_RUB PCI downloaded from our website in NetTradeX. BRENT/RUB has formed the graphic pattern called “flag” on the H4 chart, and the price is currently located next to its upper boundary. Since the two assets of this PCI are highly correlated, they are mainly traded sideways. Therefore, we don’t expect a strong bullish momentum. BRENT/RUB will most likely return to its long-term moving average (200). There is a decline in volatility on the MACD chart. The histogram is below the signal line, which can be considered a bearish signal. There is a timid bearish divergence on the RSI chart. Bollinger Bands indicator shows narrowing. Further development of the bearish momentum is not ruled out after the fractal resistance breakout at 3910. This mark can be used for placing a pending sell order. Stop loss may be placed at the top line of Bollinger Bands indicator, which can currently act as a resistance line – 4073. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 3910 Stop loss above 4073 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The heads of leading central banks of the world will be delivering their speeches today. The ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak in Frankfurt at 14:00 CET. At 15:00 CET the Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. Investors expect that Draghi will confirm the dates and the amount of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) announced last year. Recall that it is planned to start this March in the monthly amount of 60 billion euro. Market participants expect Janet Yellen to shed light on the timing of the rate hike in the United States. Previously, it was supposed to happen in April 2015. However, FOMC Meeting Minutes released last Wednesday revealed that an early rate hike was doubtful: the world economy is being in a poor state for the first time since January 2013. In general, we consider the situation to be ambiguous. The US dollar index has been traded sideways for a month. As a rule, after leaving this trend, strong movement is expected further on. The statements made by the heads of the ECB and the Fed will probably guide the exchange rate in some direction. Unfortunately, the trend is difficult to predict in advance. Let’s consider the EUR/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. It was traded sideways on January 26, 2015. The last bars of RSI-Bars are below 50 and form a downtrend. But as we noted above, the final price direction of this currency pair will depend on the monetary policy determined by the Fed and the ECB. We believe a new trend will appear after sideways trading is finished. Let the market choose the price direction. The most significant levels at 1.10974 and 1.15321 are confirmed by Bill Williams fractals and Donchian Channel boundaries. Two positions can be placed at the opposite levels: after one of the orders is opened, the second one can be deleted. It means the market has chosen the direction. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high (short position) or low (long position), following Parabolic values. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. Position Sell Sell stop below 1.10974 Stop loss above 1.15321 Position Buy Buy stop above 1.15321 Stop loss below 1.10974 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday that there is no need to hurry with the rate hike. For this reason the US dollar index is slipping but is still traded in a range. CPI will be released in Canada and the US tomorrow at 13:30 СЕТ. According to forecasts, it is expected to be cut in both countries. However, we deem the Canadian inflation indicator looks more preferable. We believe that the reduced US CPI may include deflation risks which can be regarded as a negative factor for the economy. Moreover, deflation could delay further the moment of raising the US base rate which now stands at 0.25%. The rate is higher in Canada and makes up 0.75%. Let’s consider the USD/CAD on the H4 chart. It has been traded sideways for a month and has no definite direction so far. RSI-Bars shows signs of the downtrend approach, but in general it is also located in a range. It hasn’t reached the oversold zone yet – 30. We do not rule out the bearish momentum being developed in case of the fractal support level breakout at 1.23615: this level can be used for placing a pending sell order. However, the most careful traders should wait for the market reaction on the CPI release in the US and Canada. Stop loss is to be placed at the last Parabolic signal, which can currently act as the resistance line at 1.265. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 1.23615 Stop loss above 1.265 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 We would like to focus your attention to the AUD/USD currency pair. The Aussie is currently traded 29% below the historical high of 2011 and showed signs of the bullish influence over the last three weeks. Since September 2014 it has dipped 18% with the maintained base rate of 2.5%, kept since August 2013. In February 2015 the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the rate only 0.25%, down to 2.25%. Some market participants deem that it is not enough for such a strong depreciation of the Australian dollar. The RBA meeting will take place next Tuesday. Most investors don’t expect additional rate cuts. In our opinion, these forecasts may buoy the Aussie. Having a look at the H4 chart, the AUD/USD broke the triangle top with confidence. Now it is moving inside the uptrend price channel, so that it can be considered as the trend confirmation. The RSI-Bars chart also indicates the uptrend. Please note that its readings reached the overbought border and performed a pullback: the oscillator has not been below 50. This is a good “bullish” signal which implies the Australian dollar strengthening. We do not rule out the bullish momentum being developed after the fractal resistance breakout at 0.79: this level can be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss is to be placed at the last Parabolic signal, which can currently act as the support line at 0.782. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Buy Buy stop above 0.79 Stop loss below 0.782 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Today we would like to focus your attention to GBP/USD . The pound slid from the seven-year high against the euro, and is down from the eight-week high against the US dollar. It was caused by the decline in real estate prices in February for the first time in five months. Note that last week the pound soared to the six-year high against the basket of major currencies. Now investors believe that the Bank of England rate hike will occur no earlier than in 2016. Moreover, there is a hypothetical possibility that the UK may exit the European Union if the Conservative Party wins the parliamentary elections scheduled in May. We don’t rule out the possibility that the pound might continue rising after the technical pullback is over. The GBP/USD currency pair shows a pullback on the H4 chart, but the uptrend price channel is still remained. RSI-Bars oscillator is now in a neutral range: the latest bars are located below 50. It might be a sign that it is too early to buy. We do not rule out the bullish momentum being developed after the fractal high breakout at 1.55515: this level can be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss is to be placed at the lower border of DonchianChannel, which can currently act as the support line at 1.5383. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Buy Buy stop above 1.55515 Stop loss below 1.5383 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Today let’s consider XAUUSD on the H4 chart. In February gold hit the 5-month low over expectations of an early Fed rate hike for the first time since 2006. Some market participants deem that this might be done in April. However, last week the Fed Chair said there was no need to raise interest rates that early. There is no specific timing and this issue will be discussed on a regular basis at meetings. This appeared to be the reason the majority of investors decided that the interest rates might be raised only in June. After that the gold price stabilized above $1200 per ounce. We don’t rule out the possibility of gold to advance due to high demand in China and India. Note that the US dollar index hit the 11-year high. If it slides, that might also provide support for precious metals. XAU/USD finished the four-week downtrend, breaking the corresponding resistance level. Now it shows weak signs for bullish hopes and remains in the price channel. RSI-Bars showed bullish divergence: the latest bars are located below 50. This may be a sign that it is too early to go long. We do not exclude the bullish momentum being developed further after the breakout of the upper price channel boundary that coincides with the DonchianChannel upper level and the latest fractal high at 1223.3: this level can be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss is to be placed at the lower border of DonchianChannel that coincides with the lower border of the price channel and the latest fractal low, which can currently act as the support line at 1195.4. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. For the trading volume data please click here. Position Buy Buy stop above 1223.3 Stop loss below 1195.4 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today we would like to focus your attention to the Personal Composite Instrument (PCI) &Brent_WTI on the H4 chart. The instrument reflects price movements of a portfolio composed of two oil futures: Brent in the base part and WTI in the quoted part. In fact, this PCI is a price spread between European and American oil. As widely known, oil prices started to slide in the middle of last year and it was caused by a sharp rise in US shale oil production, meanwhile the production in other regions of the world was maintained at the same pace. WTI was sagging lower much faster than Brent. Earlier this year &Brent_WTI has soared, reflecting the oil trends. The spread between the two types of crude oil increased greatly from its historical values. As there is little difference between them, we don’t exclude reducing of the price spread and PCI sliding. You can import &Brent_WTI PCI into NetTradeX from our website. &Brent_WTI broke the uptrend support level on the H4 chart. Bollinger bands have already started to widen, but the price has not reached the lower band yet. Note the reduced volatility on the MACD chart: it is below the zero level and the signal line which can be considered a bearish signal. The RSI indicator is going down, but hasn’t reached the oversold level yet. We do not rule out the bearish momentum being developed after the last &Brent_WTI candlestick will close below the lower Bollinger band, which is currently the level at 1.166. Another entry point may be considered the previous uptrend line which acts as the resistance line. Of course, you should go short in case there is no resistance level breakout at 1.199. Stop loss is to be placed at the last Parabolic point, which can now act as the resistance line at 1.232. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic and Bollinger bands signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 1.166 Stop loss above 1.232 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Today the US dollar index is falling back. American macroeconomic performance looks so sustainable that some market participants began to doubt whether the Fed rate hike is likely to happen soon. In anticipation of the continuing dollar depreciation, a position on any currency pair might be opened. However, we suggest considering the Swiss franc. In comparison with the EU, the Swiss economy looks better. The country’s Q4 GDP rose 1.9% vs 0.9% (yoy). Unemployment rate in Switzerland is 3.2% and in the euro zone – 11.2%. Note that the ECB started printing money in the amount of 60 billion euro per month, but in Switzerland the same program is not carried out. Most likely, the price dynamics of the franc against the US dollar will be determined by the US statistics in the next few days. The next macroeconomic reports will be released in Switzerland on the 16th of March. The USD/CHF currency pair showed a strong uptrend for a long time on the H4 chart. Now there is a sign of a slight pullback and the price hasn’t formed a fractal high yet. It deviated strongly from its exponential moving average. Donchian Channel boundaries have already widened, but the price has reached neither the upper nor the lower lines. The RSI indicator is going down and out of the overbought level. Besides, it is much higher than the level of 50. We do not rule out the bearish momentum being developed after the last USD/CHF candlestick is closed below the last fractal high at 0.99979. Stop loss is to be placed at the last Parabolic point and/or the upper Donchian Channel boundary, which can now act as the resistance line at 1.0127. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic and Donchian Channel signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 0.99979 Stop loss above 1.0127 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We would like to focus your attention to the EUR/USD currency pair. The euro has tumbled almost 25% without any significant retracement movements since May 2014. It was caused primarily by two factors. The expected euro printing as a part of the “quantitative easing” program launched by the ECB, as well as the planned Fed rate hike. The first event has already taken place: this March the ECB has announced the start of the bond-buying program in the amount of 60 billion euro spent monthly. This program will run until September 2016. An old trader saying “Buy on the rumor, sell on the news” worked partially, and now the euro is slightly rising. We don’t rule out the possible continuation of that rising if the Fed drops a hint that there is no need in the prompt rate hike. EUR/USD showed a strong bearish move on the H4 chart. Now there is a slight retracement movement observed on the chart. There is a possibility of the technical analysis pattern formation called “double bottom”. RSI-Bars oscillator indicates the bullish divergence: it is located above 50. We do not rule out the bullish momentum being developed after the breakout of the fractal high and Donchian Channel upper boundary at 1.0683: this level may be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss is to be placed at the level of the Donchian Channel lower boundary and local fractal low, which can currently act as a support line at 1.0461. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Buy Buy stop above 1.0683 Stop loss below 1.0461 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Yesterday the Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke at the Fed meeting where concerns were expressed over the US economy performance that appears to be worsening. Market participants decided that it implies a possible delay in the rate hike. Previously, they were confident that it would happen in July. Besides, the Fed dropped a hint that even if the rate would be increased, it wouldn’t be raised more than 0.6% by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the majority of investors hoped it to be hiked up to 1.1%. The discordance between the Fed official data and market expectations caused the most abrupt daily US dollar collapse in 18 months. Currently we can observe the opposite movement indicating the currency strengthening, but we regard it as retracement so far. Significant US macroeconomic data is not released today. In theory, in case of counting on the continued US dollar weakening you may open a position on any currency pair. However, we suggest looking at the Swiss franc chart. This morning the Swiss National Bank announced that interest rates were left unchanged, but the bank remarked being ready for foreign exchange intervention if the national currency soars. In turn, we recommend using a relatively close Stop loss level as there is a risk of intervention. USD/CHF technical analysis: the price showed a strong uptrend for quite a long time on the H4 chart. Now there is a pullback and it tumbled down to its moving average (200) which was followed by a powerful rebound. Donchian Channel has widened greatly, which confirms the increased volatility. RSI oscillator plunged into the oversold zone, but quickly got out of it, although still remaining below 50. We do not rule out the bearish momentum being developed after the rebound is being finished and maintaining the resistance level at the last Parabolic points at 1.0015. Stop loss is to be placed at the level of the Donchian Channel upper boundary, which can currently act as the second resistance line at 1.0089. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic and Donchian Channel signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Sell Sell limit below 1.0015 Stop loss above 1.0089 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Let us consider the continuous futures contract of SOYBM meal: H4. Price has approached the upper boundary of bearish channel and has formed the bullish triple bottom figure (marked in yellow) At the same time a bullish divergence is the most remarkable signal, formed by RSI-Bars oscillator. After the flat motion pattern started the oscillator signal updated maximums in upward trend channel. In view of the other signals described above, the most probable direction of motion is an upward movement – trend changing is probable. We expect completion of "bear’s holiday". A pending buy order can be placed above the fractal resistance of 326.47 – it was confirmed twice. It should be remarked that the breakdown of this level will eventually lead to updating of Donchian channel maximums. Additionally H4 trend line will be crossed. The last argument in favor of long position is the triangle pattern, formed by the support level of 316.03 and the H4 trend line: the market is consolidating before the new volatile pulse. We can make a protection of long position by using "triple bottom" figure: a stop loss order can be placed below the 316.03 fractal mark. Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. Position Long Buy stop above 326.47 Sell loss below 316.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 We would like to draw your attention to the CORN futures H4 chart. In the previous overview we pointed out that increase and decrease were equally probable. Eventually, due to the strengthening dollar, corn quotes declined but now they start growing again. We are considering buying the futures. This decision may be confirmed by the dropping dollar and estimated drought in the US. Grain crops may show a sharp growth in the future because of the potential onset of El Niño this year. Competent weather agencies haven't released forecasts yet but anything is possible. We remind that El Niño was last seen in 2010. The natural phenomenon boosted food prices back then. On March, 26 US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish a weekly report on food export. It may dramatically affect corn, wheat, soy, cotton and beef quotes. Let us consider the CORN futures on the H4 time frame. It is traded in a mid-term range. The graph has recently shaped a triangle figure and continued moving down. However, there were no significant drop and corn returned into the neutral trend rather fast. RSI-Bars latest signals rebounded from the overbuy zone which is located above 70. At the same time the oscillator didn't breach 50. Donchian Channel expanded and the curve reached its upper boundary. The Donchian upper level is above 200-day moving average (MA 200). We do not rule out further bullish momentum if the latest bar of the CORN futures closes above the “old triangle” - 395. A pending buy order may be placed there. Stop loss may be placed at MA 200 level which can be considered as a support line – 387.9 mark. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Buy Buy stop above 395 Stop loss below 387,9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yesterday the data on growing February CPI were released in the US. In theory, it points to increased likelihood of interest rate hike, so the dollar stopped falling. However we do not rule out the downtrend and would like to draw your attention to the USD/CAD currency pair. Canadian GDP (YoY) in the forth quarter rose 2.4 as core CPI increased 0.6%. US Gross Domestic Product (Q4) will be released on Friday, analysts forecast 2.4% growth. According to yesterday's report, American CPI added 0.2% in February which is that that much, compared to Canada. Taking into account interest rates (0.25% in the US and 0.75% in Canada) we assume that the Canadian dollar may strengthen. To be mentioned, no important macroeconomic releases are expected in Canada. We believe that USD/CAD dynamics will determined by the news from the US. USD/CAD has been traded in a range for 2 months on the D1 chart. Now it has moved to its lower boundary, traced by support line together with Parabolic and Donchian Channel. RSI bars indicates the bearish divergence: it is located below 50. USD/CAD deviated upward from the moving average. We do not rule out further bearish momentum if Doncian support and fractal low are breached at 1.2387: a sell pending order may be placed here. Stop loss may be placed below the average line between Donchian Channel and the local fractal low, which currently acts as support line - 1.2564. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered. Position Sell Sell stop below 1,2387 Stop loss above 1,2564 Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 At 16:00 CET on Tuesday US Agricultural Service will release a report on crops evaluating wheat and corn reserves at state and private establishments (link). Investors are loking forward to this report because it will forecast future demand and may boost agricultural futures. Let us consider the consolidating continuous CORN futures on the H4 chart. The price is in a range in prospect of the fundamental release. Doncian channel doesn't show an incline. The bullish momentum is confirmed by ParabolicSar, which has made a U-turn. Amid consolidation the oscillator signals should be carefully monitored. Despite the trend is keeping its direction, RSI-Bars has breached the support line (see the red mark on the figure above). That means that market is mixed: placing 2 opposite pending orders would be the best tactics. Let us allocate two key levels for that: 399.7 and 393.5. The upper level is confirmed by Parabolic historical signals and the Donchian channel boundary. The support at 393.5 is verified by the bullish “double bottom” pattern and Bill Williams fractals. When the long position is opened, we recommend to pay attention to the oscillator signals. If the ascending momentum is not confirmed by breaching the local overbought zone at 75%, we advise you to place a Stop loss at the break-even point.When any pending order triggers, the opposite one should be canceled because market is choosing a direction. Stop loss is to be moved every four hours, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio for our benefit. Position Sell Sell stop below 393.5 Stop loss above 399.7 Position Buy Buy stop above 399.7 Stop loss below 393.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest IFC Markets Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Growing unemployment in February has been reported today in the EU. Deflation in March slipped but kept on track, driving the euro down. However, we believe that until the Friday Non-Farm Payrolls the common currency will be traded in a range. A number of important macroeconomic indices will be released in the US today: Chicago Purchasing Manager at 15:45 CET and Consumer Confidence at 16:00 CET. The tentative outlook is slightly positive for the American dollar. The EUR/USD currency pair escaped the down-trend on the H4 chart and is now traded in a range: 1.1052 – 1.0461. The curve is a little bit below the corridor center and is moving towards the lower boundary. Thus, we do not rule out that until Friday the pair will reach the top or the bottom and rebound back to the middle. If RSI-Bars touches the overbought or the oversold zone that may confirm our assumptions. A sell order may be placed at the moving average – 1.1005. Stop loss may be placed at the Donchian Channel upper boundary and at the local fractal high – 1.1052. A buy order may be located at the flat corridor's bottom – 1.0461 with a stop loss slightly below (at 1.0431 for example). After pending order activation stop loss is to be moved every 4 hours near the next fractal, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered. Position Sell Sell limit above 1,1005 Stop loss above 1,1052 Position Buy Buy limit below 1,0461 Stop loss below 1,0431 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Root Admin MrD Posted April 20, 2020 Root Admin Share Posted April 20, 2020 @IFC Markets I invite you to restart posting market analysis here on Top Gold Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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