HFM Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Date : 16th February 2022. Market Update – February 16 – Back from the brink? Stock markets rallied into close (2.5%-1.5%), with news of withdrawal of some Russian troops from close to the Ukrainian border. USD & JPY cool, Gold cooled too from 8-month highs and Oil dipped to $90.00. 2yr-10yr Yields widened but both remain elevated as it becomes clear that the situation in the Ukraine is far from resolved. Asian markets rallied (Nikkei +2.2%) but have cooled into close. Biden – “Human cost of Russia attack would be immense”. USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from Monday high at 96.40. US Yields 10-yr closed back over 2.00% at 2.045 trades at 1.997%, 2-yrs remain elevated. Equities – USA500 +69 pts (+1.58%) 4471 -(NVDA +9.18%, ABNB+6.14%, TSLA +5.33%) US500 FUTS cooler now at 4457. USOil – Futures dipped to $89.00, trades at $90.70 now. Gold – Fell from (8-mth highs) at $1879 back to $1845 and $1855 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1375 USDJPY up to 115.64 & Cable to 1.3555. Overnight – CNY Inflation slips, CPI down to 0.9% (expectations were 1.0%) from 1.5% and PPI down from record 10.3% to 9.1% (9.5% expected). UK Inflation hotter than expected CPI 5.5% vs 5.4%, CORE at 4.4% vs 4.3% – it’s only a tick but its above expectations, details may show some better news, but Oil & Petrol prices still rising and strong wage inflation yesterday too. BoE still see inflation topping in April, but will add pressure for BoE to act again. – Old fashioned RPI now at 7.8% vs 7.4% too. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 17 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, as the selloff in bonds is coming to an end. DAX and FTSE 100 are still posting gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Today – CAD CPI; EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Earnings Heineken, Carrefour; Barrick Gold, Garmin, Shopify, NVIDIA. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The key Risk sensitive pair recovers from 81.50 lows Monday back to 83.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 66.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.115 Daily ATR 0.818. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Date : 17th February 2022. Market Update – February 17 – Risks raised – Russia reports being fired on. US Stock markets flat into close (US500 +3 pts) after a weak day, no surprises in FED minutes (Jan 25/26) no talk of 50bps rate rises but a lot has happened in 3 weeks. USD & JPY bid on more jitters regarding Ukraine. Gold rallied back to $1875, Oil – very volatile after inventories, contract expiry & news from Iran. Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped Nikkei (-0.83%) but have cooled into close. US & UK – “Russian troop withdrawal claims “false”. Ukraine denies any missiles from Donbass were fired. USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from spike to 96.00 earlier. US Yields 10-yr closed 2.045 trades at down now 1.998%, 2-yrs remain elevated. Equities – USA500 +3.94 pts (+1.58%) 4475 -(NVDA beat,) FB -2.02% US500 FUTS cooler now at 4455. USOil – Topped at $93.00, after inventories, collapsed to $88.00 after contract expiry and positive nuclear deal headlines from both the US and Iran. Trades at $90.80 now. Gold – Rallied $1850 support to $1875 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1364 USDJPY down to 115.25 & Cable to 1.3585, from a test of 1.3600 after hot inflation yesterday. Overnight – JPY machinery orders much better than expected, Trade balance slipped significantly. AUD Job creation better than expected and Unemployment steady at European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, U.S. futures are also moving higher. Investors are keeping a weary eye on central banks, which are trapped between fears of out of control inflation and concern that hasty and aggressive central bank action could hit the recovery. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.75 and -0.4% respectively. Today – US Initial Claims, CBRT Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Cos, Fed’s Bullard & Mester Earnings Standard Chartered (beat); Airbus (beat), Orange, Commerzbank, Walmart Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.43%) Rallied from lows of 0.8400 yesterday to 0.8510 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 68.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0060. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Date : 18th February 2022. Market Update – February 18 – Ukraine worries front & centre. US Stock markets crashed into close (US30 -622pts) after a weak day. US data biased lower (Philly Fed 16.0 vs 23.2, Initial Claims 248K vs 217k & Housing data mixed.) USD cools on its safe-haven bid. Gold rallied to test $1900, Oil remained under $90.00, Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped (Nikkei -0.43%, ASX worst performer -1.0%.) Claims & counterclaims yesterday over who fired on who, Russia expelled a US diplomat and today there are reports of 30 more troop and tank withdrawals; also “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Blinken & Lavrov will meet late next week. USD (USDIndex 95.75) consolidating in range; Wednesday’s & last Friday’s low 95.65. US Yields 10-yr cooled into closed 1.97% and trades lower today, 2-yr remains elevated. Equities – USA500 -95 pts (-2.12%) 4380 – (NVDA -7.56%, FB -4.02% TSLA -5.0%, WMT + 4.01% (Big Earnings beat & Divi increase)- US500 FUTS recover to 4396, currently. USOil – Topped at $91.00, back to under $90.00 now and trades at $89.20 now. Wednesdays & last Friday’s low 88.00. Gold – Rallied through psychological $1900 earlier to test 2021 highs, now back to $1892 Bitcoin broke out of the $42k-45K range and trades down to test $40K. FX markets – EURUSD pivoting around 1.1365, USDJPY broke below 115.00 to new 10-day low at 114.78 back to 115.10 now. Cable breaches 1.3600 and trades at 1.3625. Overnight – JPY hurt by weaker CPI data (0.2% vs 0.3% & 0.5% previously). Fed hawk Mester says rates should rise more quickly and the balance sheet needs to be reduced more swiftly than it did post the financial crash. Nothing new but more hawkish overtones and pressure to act. UK Retail Sales stronger than anticipated, 1.9% vs 1.1% but December numbers were revised down to -4.0% from -3.7%. Poor christmas for UK retailers. French CPI in-line and unchanged at 0.3%. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are also lower, but outperforming, with reports of a planned US-Russia meeting helping to boost confidence and boosting stock market sentiment. Safe haven demand is ebbing and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.3%, while a 0.7% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. Not that Ukraine jitters are resolved and markets will keep a weary eye on developments. For now though they seem willing to buy into the headlines, which will likely see yields nudging higher early in the session. EGBs have staged a remarkable rally this week, as officials pledged caution and gradualism as they prepare to remove stimulus. Today – US Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed’s Williams, Brainard, Evans; ECB’s Elderson, Panetta. Earnings NatWest; Allianz, EDF, Deere. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.58%) Rallied from lows of 75.86 on Monday to 0.77.35 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 63.25 & rising, Stochs OB zone H1 ATR 0.123 Daily ATR 0.755. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Date : 21st February 2022. UK: Data adding to arguments for swift action. The markets are closed today for Presidents’ Day. Canada is also closed. Bonds held a haven bid Friday as the threat of a war in the Ukraine intensified. Bond yields have moved higher on strong data and headlines of a possible Biden-Putin summit, but doubts have already started to emerge, leaving 10-year rates off earlier highs and GER30 and UK100 up 0.3% and down -0.1% respectively. The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.9 bp at 0.21%, the Gilt rate up 1.7 bp at 1.39%. PMI reports for the Eurozone and the UK highlighted a strong and swift rebound from Omicron, but also rising price pressures and in the UK wage increases and staff shortages. UK Composite Output PMI at 8-months high in February. The overall reading rose to 60.2 from 54.2 in January, thanks to a huge improvement in services sector activity. The services PMI came in at 60.8, up from 54.1 in the previous month, but while the manufacturing output index jumped to a 7 month high of 56.7, the manufacturing PMI held steady at 57.3 Coupled with German PPI inflation rising to a whopping 25%, the data added to arguments for swift action from both the BoE and the ECB. There were source stories last week effectively confirming that the ECB is likely to end net asset purchases in September and pave the way for a rate hike in the last quarter of the year. At the BoE there were already a number of people arguing in favour of a 50 bp move at the last meeting, and the data clearly suggests that additional steps will be necessary to keep inflation from taking to firm a hold. That UK inflation failed to drop back as expected at the start of the year and the squeeze in the cost of living is increasingly getting popular attention. The RPI that officials wanted to drop altogether is back in focus and hit a whopping 7.8% in January. Coupled with tax hikes, the pressure on households is increasing, especially as there is little consumers can do in the middle of the winter to escape the jump in energy costs. Against the background of a tightening labour market, pressure on the BoE is building, although the top brass at the central bank is likely to continue to argue in favour of gradual moves. The stats office’s preferred target is the CPIH, which stood at 4.9% y/y in January, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The measures dominate the official press release, but remains little used in real life. The narrower CPI hit a 30 year high of 5.5% at the start of the year, the core reading lifted to 4.4% from 4.2% and the Retail Price Index (RPI) which was the main and indeed only measure until 2011, jumped to 7.8%. Energy prices remain the main driving factor and with the government set to lift the price cap on energy in April, the chances are that more is to come, with even the BoE suggesting that CPI could hit 7% in April. http://www.actioneconomics.com/upload/Eurozone-Econ/UK-Overview28_400x250.gif For consumers the multitude of inflation measures is confusing and the older RPI remains firmly lodged in the minds of many. Indeed, union negotiators continue to consider it the best available measure of inflation. That means the 7.8% measure, rather than the much lower CPIH will be the focus in official wage negotiations. Unions may no longer be as powerful as they once were, but given that across the UK the labour market looks increasingly tight with many companies struggling to find skilled staff, they will certainly be in a good negotiating position this year. Reports suggest that pay bargaining across major private and public sector employers was relatively low through much of last year, likely also owing to the crisis situation. With the recovery expected to continue this year and unions focusing on the much higher RPI reading, wage talks are likely to be much tougher this year. Indeed, there are already reports that companies are forced to up wages just to keep staff and latest labour market data not just confirmed that jobless claims continue to decline, but also reported an unexpected rise in average weekly earnings growth. But with demand coming back companies are also more likely to pass on the sharp increase in cost pressures. If the jump in energy prices were not enough, the FT warned that beer prices are also set to rise sharply, with prices of malting barley nearly doubling last year. Long term supply contracts mean higher costs are only now being passed on to consumers. With struggling consumers told to wrap up warm and use hot water bottles to keep a lid on energy prices and a rise in beer prices underway, BoE Bailey’s calls for wage restraint didn’t go down well. http://www.actioneconomics.com/upload/Eurozone-Econ/UK-Overview36_400x250.gif Indeed, more than anything communication will be key as central banks navigate a very difficult situation. Bailey may have been clumsy in his remarks, but he and his chief economist Pill clearly are aware that cautious moves are required in order not to stifle growth as the economy navigates the recovery from the pandemic. The two were among those arguing against a large 50 bp move at the last meeting. Indeed, delivering not just successive, but unusually aggressive rate hikes at this point would likely see markets running too far ahead with the tightening story, which could see a jump in rates that in turn could weigh on the recovery. The BoE’s monetary policy report already suggested that markets are too pessimistic on the medium term outlook and if the bank were to deliver a 50 bp hike in March, while inflation rates continue to rise, markets would very likely be pushing for even more with the next pick up in headline inflation. Measured action then will likely remain the order of the day for now, especially as easing supply chain pressures should also help to limit the rise in cost pressures going forward. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Date : 22nd February 2022. Market Update – February 22 – RISK OFF – Stocks Dive, Treasuries Up, Oil Leaps. Stocks have collapsed as Treasuries rally and a major rally in Oil and Gold as President Putin recognizes the breakaway regions of Ukraine and orders troops into the country. The West prepares more sanctions, with USD and JPY bid. NZD also holds Friday’s bid ahead of RBNZ. Gold rallied to test $1914, Oil rallied up 3.4%. Yields fell to 1.858 from 1.91 from Friday’s close. Asian markets sank (Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng worst performer -3.2%). VIX futures trade -5.7%, EuroStoxx FUTS -3.44%. USD up(USDIndex 96.11). USD on bid next resistance 96.30 from 14/2. US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.932 close Friday to 1.91% now to test 1.90. Equities – USA500 -32 pts (-0.72%) 4348 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.0%) to 4230 earlier, back to 4285 now. USOil – Topped at $94.00, back to under $92.00 now and trades at $91.72. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now back to $1908. Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $36,800. FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1300, USDJPY holds below 115.00 to 114.50 earlier and 114.75 now. Cable breaches under 1.3600 and trades at 1.3590. Overnight – JPY CPI data (0.8% vs 1.1% & 0.5% previously), but all focus was centred on geopolitics. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 49 ticks, US futures are outperforming as investors head for safety while keeping a close eye on the developing situation in east Ukraine. The standoff between the West and Russia will keep pressure on stock markets, which already sold off yesterday and are set to correct even more today. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -1.1% and –0.7% respectively. Today – German Ifo, US Flash PMIs, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings HSBC (beta), Home Depot. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.27%) Rallied from lows of 0.6120 earlier, popped to 0.6155 and trades at 0.6140 now. MAs now aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram significantly below 0 line, RSI 43.25 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.00010, Daily ATR 0.0048. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Date : 23rd February 2022. Market Update – February 23 – Oil, Gold & Bonds Ebb; Kiwi Jumps. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Stocks stabilised and indexes came up from yesterday’s lows, as markets digest the still fluid developments in Ukraine and the standoff between the West and Russia. Haven demand eased and yields backed up. President Biden announced sanctions on Russia, including financial restrictions. Earlier Germany halted Nord Stream 2. UK will stop Russia selling sovereign debt in London. The RBNZ lifted its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.00%, adding to signs that central banks are moving out of crisis mode and are set on policy normalisation. Governor Bowman opened the door for a 50 bp liftoff next month. Gold below $1900, Oil settled at $90.50. Treasury yields cheapened with the front end underperforming on worries over aggressive rate hikes to help contain inflation. USD down (USDIndex 95.11) as risk appetite has stabilised. US Yields 10-year yield richened to 1.844% overnight before climbing to 1.958% then settling at 1.925%. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.6% and 0.1% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher. USOil – Steady at $90.50 as neither sanction appears as harsh as it could have been. Gold – dipped as haven demand ebbed – below $1900. Bitcoin broke higher to trade at $38,388. FX markets – NZDUSD jumped to 0.6776, EURUSD at 1.1340, USDJPY steady at 115.00. Cable breaches 1.3600. European Open – German consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to -8.1 in the advance reading for March. The March 10-year Bund future is down -4 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming slightly, although the German 30-year future also seems to be benefiting from the prospect of reduced ECB support as surveys signal a swift rebound from the latest virus wave, but also mounting inflation pressures. Risk appetite has stabilised somewhat, although markets will keep a wary eye on Ukraine and the standoff between the West and Russia. For now though the focus seems back on central banks and the Fed’s tightening schedule. Today – Today’s local calendar includes the final Eurozone HICP number, which will highlight once again that inflation is staying higher for much longer than initially expected. That in turn is putting pressure on the ECB to rein in stimulus. The UK has the latest retailing survey, which should register the easing of virus restrictions. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.74%) Spiked to 78 highs earlier. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.66 & rising. H1 ATR 0.155, Daily ATR 0.781. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhonmason Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 HotForex is considered average-risk, with an overall Trust Score of 83 out of 99. HotForex is not publicly traded, does not operate a bank, and is authorised by one tier-1 regulator (high trust), three tier-2 regulators (average trust), and one tier-3 regulator (low trust) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 Date : 24th February 2022. Market Update – February 24 – Stocks plummet, oil up as Russia attacks Ukraine. Risk aversion has hit markets hard amid reports of a full blown attack by Russia on Ukraine, which has also lifted Brent clearly above the $100 per barrel mark. Ukraine declared a 30-day state of emergency, called up reservists and urged its citizens to leave Russia. More cyber attacks on government websites and banks and disinformation campaigns were seen as a prelude to war. Also, US officials said diplomacy with Russia was dead for now. That added to the gloom. Russia suspended movement of commercial vessels in Azov Sea. Von Der Leyen – EU Planning `Massive Sanctions’ on Russia. Treasuries rallied and stock markets across Asia sold off as the world watches Ukraine. The US Treasury rate is down -12.3 bp at 1.868%, while the Nikkei has lost -1.8%, the ASX nearly 3% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 -3.1% and -2.3% respectively. Brent is trading at $102.19, the front end WTI future at $97.07 per barrel. Gold below $1949. USDRUB at 80.99. USD spikes (USDIndex 96.75) US Yields 10-year yield down to 1.868%. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are down more than 3.5% and 2% respectively, while USA500 was down 2.3% and USA100 fell 2.8%, putting the USDIndex on track toward confirming it is in a bear market. Reuters: “Closing down at least 20% from its Nov. 19 record high close of 16,057.437 points would confirm the Nasdaq has been in a bear market, according to a widely used definition. That would mark its first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global financial markets.” USOil – spiked to $96.46, & UKOIL passed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, adding to inflation worries. Gold – rallied over 2% as haven demand ebbed – below $1900. Bitcoin below $35,000 as, sell-off spread to cryptocurrency markets as well. FX markets – Yen benefited, while the Euro and to a lesser extent Sterling struggled. EURUSD at 1.1245, USDJPY drifted to 114.39, Cable breached 1.3485. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has gained 182 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, which are up 119 ticks, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted off overnight lows, but is still down -10.9 bp on the day at 1.882%. Europe in particular is seen as vulnerable to the escalation of the situation because it could also potentially affect energy supplies, although a German economic institute yesterday suggested Germany could get through the winter even if Russia totally cuts off gas supplies. Meanwhile more sanctions on Russia’s economy are underway and for now the situation remains fluid, which will keep markets in defensive mode and heading for safety. Today – Today’s data calendar includes US GDP, Jobless claims, PCE and speeches from ECB members and Fed Members. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+6.42%) Spiked to 80.99 high. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.88 & rising. H1 ATR 0.54430, Daily ATR 1.32211. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Date : 25th February 2022. Market Update – February 25 – Volatility was the only real winner! Stock market sentiment started to stabilise overnight after Wall Street closed up from session lows. US futures are in the red though, led by a 0.8% drop in the USA100, and as officials in Europe and the US announce stiff sanctions for Russia, traders are also mulling what that means for Europe. Higher energy prices clearly are one thing and Brent is still holding above the $100 per barrel mark this morning. Russia’s oil exports seem to have been spared for now, while allies blocking access of the Swift payment system is also a possibility should a further escalation of sanctions become necessary. USD settled lower below 97.00 (USDIndex 96.86). China’s PBOC made a large liquidity injection. China’s central bank injected net 290 billion yuan via seven-day reverse repo operations today. That is the largest amount since September 2020 and according to the PBOC is designed to keep liquidity stable over the month end. The wild ride in global stock markets may have contributed to the move as external pressures, including the rise in oil prices, will add to existing problems, including the slump in the property markets and Covid related restrictions. The combination will likely keep the PBOC on an easing path. The VIX slid back to the 28.50 region after spiking to 37.79. US Yields – 10-year is down -0.3 bp at 1.96%, while the 10-year JGB rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 0.203% and yields are also higher in Australia and New Zealand. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 1.65% and 1.2%. JPN225 gained nearly 2% and the CSI 300 is currently up 0.8%. USA100 round tripped, bouncing 3.35% higher after tumbling -3.4%, while USA500 recovered to post a 1.59% gain from a -2.6% drop, with USA30 rising 0.28% versus a -2.6% morning drop. USOil – fell back to $89.60 lows after hitting 7-year highs of $100.50 ahead of the open. Currently at $93.70. Gold – tumbled from a $1974 high down to the $1885 area. Bitcoin back above PP at $37,700. FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1210 from 1.1110 low, USDJPY back above 115.15, Cable breached 1.3438. European Open – Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas comes at a price and will be something officials need to address urgently, although there is of course no quick solution, which means consumers will feel the pain of even higher energy costs. The jump in the cost of living is already depressing consumer confidence, and after the disappointing German GfK consumer confidence reading earlier in the week, the UK’s numbers overnight looked equally depressing. The pressure on central bank to step in will remain then, even against the background of the crisis in Ukraine. DATA: German Q4 GDP revised up markedly – to -0.3% q/q from -0.7% q/q reported initially. German import price inflation hit 26.9% y/y in January, another higher than expected number that is likely to explode in coming months when the jump in oil prices is reflected, as it seems extremely unlikely that oil prices will go down very quickly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European gas prices exploded yesterday and are also likely to remain very high, which means more pain for consumers ahead, as the cost of living explodes. Today – Today’s data calendar includes detailed German GDP, preliminary French inflation numbers, the Eurozone ESI confidence reading, US PCE, Durable Goods and Michigan index. EU and ECB officials are set to hold a presser today, likely detailing some sanctions against Russia and their implementation. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCZK (+1.18%) spiked to 22.30 from 21.99 on EU open. MAs bulishly crossed, MACD signal line & histogram remain close to 0 line, RSI 64 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0622, Daily ATR 0.2683. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broforex51 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 CADCHF today as we see here, the trend is bullish, so it is good for you if you just follow the trend. You can open buy position when the price bouncing in support area at 0.7273 with potential target up to 50 pips above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Date : 28th February 2022. Market Update – Major risk-off market moves as sanctions bite. Major RISK OFF mood in markets as they believe weekend announcements, unlike initial sanctions, will have significant impact. Rouble down 30% at record lows, Russian central bank has doubled a key rate to 20% from 9.5% and is openly buying gold. – Oil futures rallied well over $100/barrel. Safe havens of USD, JPY, Government Bonds and Gold all in demand. EUR, AUD, NZD stocks and yields all lower. Week Ahead – Will be dominated by news from Ukraine; BoC & RBA policy meetings, month-end today & and a heavy dose of global data releases including GDPs, PMIs, US ADP and NFP data. USD up (USDIndex 97.00). USD on bid next resistance 97.40 & 97.67. US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.986% close Friday to 1.90% now. Equities – USA500 +95.95pts (+2.24%) 4384 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.82%) to 4260 earlier, back to 4285 now. USOil – Topped at $97.10, from under $90.00 on Friday, back to under $94.00 now. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, having topped at $1930 earlier. Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $38,250. FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1185, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable trades at 1.3385. Overnight – JPY data mixed, Ind. production missed (-1.3% vs -0.6%) & Retail sales a tick higher at 1.6%. AUD data also mixed – a big beat for Retail Sales (1.8% vs 0.3% & -4.4% previously). European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 84 ticks at 166.99 and Treasury futures outperforming amid a general flight to safety amid the escalating tensions between the West and Russia that saw Russia’s Putin putting nuclear deterrent forces on high alert after western allies imposed stiff sanctions that included the exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT and also targeted Russia’s central bank. The opening of Russia’s stock markets has been postponed to the afternoon. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -3.2% and -1.5% respectively. Most Asian markets managed to close higher after a volatile session. Today – Russian-Ukrainian officials meeting; US Chicago PMI; ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta; Fed’s Bostic; EU’s von der Leyen; China’s Foreign Minister Yi; Earnings ABF, Baidu. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) Collapsed from Friday’s close over 130.20 to 128.50 lows & trades over 129.00 now. MAs remain aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 49.77 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.367, Daily ATR 1.2850. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvenaaddy Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 A recipient of multiple trade awards, this market-maker offers a good selection and variety of assets, together with equities, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 Date : 1st March 2022. Market Update – March 1 – Calmer Markets For Now. Risk Off mood cools, at least for now, with stock markets mixed, the USD, Commodities and Treasuries hold their bid. More Western companies pull investments from Russia, Visa & Mastercard block financial transactions, Monaco and London block more accounts. Oil futures rally again, Gold holds up and Yields remain pressured. Overnight Asian markets moved higher, JPY Manu. PMI miss, CNY PMI’s beat (51.6 vs 50.6). RBA keeps interest rates unchanged amid new uncertainty. Ukraine applies for EU membership as a 65km convoy of Russian armour heads towards Kyiv. February Review – S&P500 fell -3.1%, DJIA30 lost -3.5%, & the NASDAQ shed -3.4%. Year to date the S&P500 is down -8.2% with January & February being the biggest two-month drop since March 2020 and the onset of the pandemic. USD (USDIndex 96.65). Traded below 97.00 most of yesterday. 96.50 next support. US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.839 Monday, 3 ticks higher to 1.86% now. Equities – USA500 -10.70pts (-0.24%) 4373. (TSLA +7.48%, Zoom +5.81%, BP -4.95%, Total -7.62%) US500 FUTS recovering to 4386 now. USOil – Support at $93.00, yesterday, back to $95.00 now. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, trades at $1908. Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,400. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1225, from 1.1125 lows yesterday, USDJPY holds 115.00 and Cable recovers 1.3400 to trade at 1.3420 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 37 ticks at 167.41, outperforming versus Treasuries, which are down on the day. Europe’s geographical proximity to Ukraine and reliance on Russian oil and gas has left European markets more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war with DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.4%. Developments in Ukraine will continue to overshadow the markets going forward. Today – EU, UK & US Final PMIs, German CPI & Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Construction Spending, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Saunders & President Biden’s State of the Union Address. Earnings Target, AMC, HP & Salesforce. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The cooling of the risk off mood and RBA helped the pair recover. A breach of 83.00 lower earlier to 83.75 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram above 0 line, RSI 65.80 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Date : 2nd March 2022. Market Update – March 2 – Risk-Off Returns. Risk Off mood returned as stock markets dived and safe havens from the USD to US Treasuries rallied. Oil & GOLD markets surged, Brent hit $110/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. More Western companies (Apple, Ford & Boeing,) pull investments from Russia & US banned Russian airlines from its airspace. However, Russian Oil, Gas & Uranium exports all remain open. Asian markets moved lower (Nikkei -1.3%). Biden SOU speech warns “we are coming fro your ill-gotten gains” and off-script says that Putin “has no idea what’s coming” Overnight – AUD GDP missed (3.4% vs 3.5%), JPY Capital Spending was higher and UK House Price Inflation jumped to 1.7% form 0.6%. USD (USDIndex 97.60). Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance. US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.73, 3 ticks lower to 1.707% now. Equities – USA500 -67pts (-1.55%) 4306. US500 FUTS down at 4288 now. USOil – Rallied from support at $94.00, yesterday, up to $107.55 now. Gold – Rallied from $1905 now, trades at $1948. Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,800. FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1100, USDJPY holds 115.15 and Cable down to 1.3280 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks at 170.66, while U.S. futures are slightly lower. , although in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is down -2.0 bp at 1.707%. Investors are pricing out excessive rate hike bets and in the Eurozone the 10-year Bund yield closed at -0.80% yesterday, with negative rates not expected to go away any time soon. For today, investors are likely to remain extremely nervous, although the -0.7% decline in the DAX future looks modest compared to yesterday’s correction and the FTSE 100 future is actually up 0.1%. Today – German Unemployment, EZ CPI, US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Guindos & Nagel. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (-0.36%) 6-day collapse from 1.7345 continues down to 1.6915 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 30 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Date : 3rd March 2022. Market Update – March 3 – War stokes stagflation fears. Stock markets mostly moved higher across Asia, but GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.14% and US futures narrowly mixed, with the USA100 underperforming, against the background of the Ukraine war. Yields jumped higher yesterday and Bund futures are little changed this morning, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected somewhat. Aluminium hits record top; Oil, wheat at multi-year highs on supply woes. Longer-term Black Sea supply curbs lift wheat to 14-year high – Brent hit $118/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. Russia is a top supplier in oil, gas, metals and grain, and Russia and Ukraine also account for 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soybean oil and palm oil. Reuters: The United States is preparing a sanctions package targeting more Russian oligarchs as well as their companies and assets, as Washington steps up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. New talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly slated for today. US “hugely important” delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine hailed “game-changer” – Fake News? Political propaganda? Who knows. Overnight – Powell signalled a less aggressive pace of interest rate hikes than investors had feared. BoE’s Cunliffe and Tenreyro suggested that the war in Ukraine will change the outlook” – suggested the bank remains on course to deliver further rate hikes. The banks could remain on course to remove stimulus, but will move cautiously and maintain the flexibility to step in again if necessary. BoE’s Tenreyro says Ukraine war leaves “upside surprise” on inflation, but also delivered a trade shock. China Services PMIs down; Japan consumer confidence down. ADP data showed a stronger than expected 475k jump in private payrolls in February and a hefty upward revision in January to 509k from -301k. USD – USDIndex at 97.50 US Yields 10-yr lower now, was over 13 bps higher testing 1.87%. Equities – Nikkei lifted 0.7%, USA500 jumped 1.86% – Energy was the best performing subsector on Nikkei (+3.2%), financials jumped 3.17%. USOil – Rallied to $112.00; Brent hit $118/barrel. Gold – steady as risk appetite improved, trades at $1926; Copper at 4.76 ; Palladium at 2,721. FX markets – EURUSD at 21-month low at 1.1055, USDJPY up at 115.72 and Cable down to 1.3390 now from 1.3416. USDCAD breaks below 200-Day SMA (Bank of Canada raised rates 0.25%). AUDUSD breaches and breaks 200-week SMA at 0.7320. Today – Today’s data releases will continue to take a backseat , but include final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The account of the ECB’s last policy meeting is also due, but the highlights will be in the US session with Jobless claims, ISM Services, Markit PMI, Fed Chair Powell testimony and BoC Macklem speech. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) UKOIL (+4.83%) Spiked to 119.78. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend higher, RSI 70 & rising with all suggesting further steam to the upside. H1 ATR 1.79, Daily ATR 5.07. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 Date : 4th March 2022. Market Update – March 4 – Markets slump after nuclear power station strike. Risk Off mood swirled as Europe’s largest nuclear power complex was targeted in Russian/Ukrainian fighting, 5 of the 6 reactors have been safely shutdown. Safe havens from USD to US Treasuries continue to rally and Oil & GOLD markets hold their gains, lifting commodity currencies. Asian stock markets crashed (Nikkei -2.5%) EUR is testing 24-month lows. US markets closed lower on mixed US data (PMI’s disappointed but Initial Claims were better than expected), despite some big gains from retailers. Fed Chair Powell was a tad more Hawkish in his second day of testimony. US sanctioned more Russian oligarchs. Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on a joint provision of humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians. USD (USDIndex 98.02). Cooled from 98.08 (May 2020 high) earlier as nuclear power plant fire is contained. Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance. US Yields 10-yr up to 1.844 on close – off 6 ticks lower to 1.785% now. Equities – USA500 -23pts (-0.53%) 4363. US500 FUTS down at 4341 now. USOil – Rallied to $112.56, yesterday, $106.10 now. Gold – Rallied to $1950 earlier, $1936 now. Bitcoin under 42K levels to trade at $43,300. FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1010, USDJPY holds 115.40 and Cable down to 1.3320 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 50 ticks at 169.71, U.S. futures are also higher across the board, as investors head for safety once again. The Russian attack clearly has rattled nerves and left investors seeking safety in bonds and the Greenback. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -1.97% and -1.10% respectively. Developments in Ukraine may even overshadow todays’ US payroll report. Today – EZ Retail Sales & Construction PMI, US Labour Market Report. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.72%) Collapse from 1.6200 in mid February continues down to 1.4975 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 14 OS but still falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Date : 10th March 2022. Market Update – March 10 – Stocks & EUR Bounce, Oil sinks, Gold & USD slip. Risk On re-emerged yesterday as stocks rallied (NASDAQ +3.59%, Nikkei +3.8%) as Russia-Ukraine Fin. Mins. meet in Turkey, OIL dived (-12% at one point) as UAE said it would increase output, but not break with OPEC. GOLD fell $85 & JPY & CHF dipped as safe haven assets fell (USDJPY over 116), USD slipped too, EUR had its best day in months (EURGBP back to 0.8400) ahead of ECB later. AUD & NZD hold their bid too. Yields fell and BTC stalled at key $42k level and lost over $2k. Overnight JPY PPI leapt to 9.3% due to significant imports. USD (USDIndex 98.04). Cooled from over 99.06 yesterday to 97.80 before recovering 98.00. US Yields 10-yr up to 1.948% on close – lower to 1.934% now. Yesterday’s 10-yr auction was filled at 1.92. Equities – USA500 +107 (+2.57%) 4277. US500 FUTS down at 4270 now. Tech rallied over +5% (Google, MSFT, NFLX & TWTR). XOM lost -5.6% as oil prices collapsed. Amazon +2.4% announced 20-for-1 stock split. USOil – Tanked from $124.90 highs on Tuesday to $99.70 yesterday. $107.50 now. Gold – Down from Tuesday high at $2070 to under $1975 now. Bitcoin tested the key $42K level yesterday, only to reverse under $40k & trades at $39,300 now. FX markets – EURUSD back over 1.1050, USDJPY holds over 116.00 and Cable up to 1.3190 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks at 163.75, outperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved higher across Asia, but the broad reversal of safe haven flows that dominated yesterday’s session has already started to run out of steam, as doubts over hopes that Ukraine and Russia will come to an agreement at the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers in Turkey today have crept in. US futures are broadly lower, even if DAX and FTSE 100 futures are adding to yesterday’s gains. The correction in oil prices eases some of the recent pressure and for the Eurozone at least, while support also comes from hope that EU heads of state will agree to joint debt issuance to finance energy and defence policies in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the West and Russia. ECB Preview – The ECB meets today and another joint debt package would increase the central bank’s room to extend net asset purchases, which most now expect the central bank to keep open ended at today’s meeting as warnings of stagflation fears dominate the headlines. Still, the ECB can’t afford to do nothing and may find a way to change strategy and open the way to hike rates, while still buying bonds. Today – US CPI, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference (Lagarde), Weekly Claims, Russia-Ukraine Foreign Ministers in Turkey & EU Leaders Summit, RBA’s Lowe. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.40%) Rallied from 0.6735 lows yesterday to over 0.68.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 62 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0070. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Date : 11th March 2022. Market Update – March 11. US CPI is at a fresh 40-year peak, and there was a hawkish slant from the ECB for which the markets were not fully prepared. Risk off prevails with Asian stocks mostly sold off, after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Japanese indexes underperformed and the Nikkei lost -2.1%, while the ASX was down -0.9% at the close. The Hang Seng corrected -1.6%, weighed down by tech stocks after the US flagged five Chinese firms that could be delisted. Oil dived to 101.25 amid escalating bans on Russian oil. President Biden will call for an end to normal trade relations with Russia. US & G7 allies to move today to strip Russia of ‘most favored nation’ status. USD (USDIndex 98.63) steady below 99.40 highs. US Yields 10-yr cheapened 6 bps to the 2.00% area. The 2-year rate was at 1.715%. The wi 30-year tested 2.40% prior to the sale but closed around 2.38%. Equities – USA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively. USOil – dipped to $101.25 but up to $105.09 now. Set for its biggest weekly drop since November. Gold – lower as US Treasury yields gained overnight on red-hot inflation data. Currently at $1990. FX markets – EURUSD back below 1.1000, USDJPY at 5-year tops at 116.79 and Cable languishes at 1.3093 near a 16-month low. European Open – Eurozone bond yields spiked and spreads widened in the wake of the ECB announcement yesterday, which confirmed the ECB’s path to policy normalisation. Net asset purchases are set to be scaled back through the second quarter and likely to end in Q3, and while that paves the way for rate hikes in Q4, the ECB made it clear that rate moves will depend on geopolitical developments. The Ukraine war has left the growth outlook with clear risks to the downside and the inflation outlook with considerable upside risks, which complicates the matter, but it is clear that for now the ECB remains determined to phase out stimulus as inflation is unlikely to undershoot the target in the medium term. Overnight: Japanese real spending dropped -1.2% in January, following the 0.2% bounce in December. German February HICP inflation was confirmed at 5.5% y/y, rising from 5.1% y/y in the previous month. UK monthly GDP was stronger than anticipated. The economy expanded 0.8% m/m in January. Today – With the focus firmly on the Ukraine war, data releases continue to take a back seat, but for what it is worth, today brings Canadian Labor data. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.51%) Rallied to January 2017 highs at 116.79. MAs pointing right, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 76 & flat, all implying near term consolidation but overall strong positive bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 Date : 14th March 2022. Market Update – March 14. The Ukraine war remains in focus, but the FOMC announcement and the BoE decision are also coming into view. Russia’s attack on Ukraine seemed to intensify over the weekend, with bombs falling near the Polish border. US reports that Russia has asked China for military assistance also flagged the risk of a further escalation of the war, but at the same time there were some hopes of diplomatic progress ahead of fresh talks. USD (USDIndex 99.05) strong, helped by speculation that the spike in commodity prices will push the FOMC into an aggressive tightening cycle. US Yields 10-yr jumped 4.6 bp to 2.037%, amid speculation that the spike in commodity prices will push the Fed into an aggressive rate hike cycle. The June 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, but outperforming versus US futures, which have sold off. Equities – GER30 and UK100 are up 1.1% and 0.6% respectively, with US futures also higher. USA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively. Nike and Apple weighed on the blue chips, while all 11 S&P sectors were in the red. Communications services and technology lagged, both down 1.8%, while utilities outperformed, about 0.4% lower. Reuters: China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and second largest consumer after the United States, is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant spreads to more cities, triggering outbreaks from Shanghai to Shenzhen. USOil – shed to $103.50 and consolidating as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher US interest rates. Gold – lower at $1971 ahead of FED. FX markets – EURUSD is consolidating above the 1.09 mark amid lingering hopes that diplomatic efforts can prevent a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, USDJPY rising to levels last seen in 2017, with the pair currently trading at 117.83 and Cable languishes at 1.3018. The Yen struggled, and even more so AUD overnight. Fed policy outlook: the FOMC meets (Tuesday, Wednesday) and this will be an important meeting, even though it will be overshadowed by the Ukraine war and the extreme volatile and uncertainties in the markets. What the latter have done, however, is temper any potential aggressive action from the Fed and other central banks as policymakers look to address decades high, if not record inflation, while not driving growth into the ground. Along with the universally expected 25 bp hike, versus the 50 bps or even 75 bp a few weeks ago, new quarterly projections will also be released. These forecasts will be subject to tremendous uncertainty, but we see big downward revisions to 2022 GDP growth and huge upside boosts to PCE chain prices estimates. Today – The FOMC announcement on Wednesday is already casting its shadow. The BoE is due Thursday and also expected to hike rates again, after the better-than-expected GDP report from last week and with officials noting upside surprises in wage growth. Official UK labour market data is due tomorrow, but for today, the European calendar is relatively quiet. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium (-6.33%) Dipped to 2578. MAs pointing down, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 23 & falling, all implying negative bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 Date : 15th March 2022. Market Update – March 15. Markets are pricing in aggressive Fed moves and while the Treasury rate managed to correct slightly from yesterday’s highs, rates across Asia moved higher, with Japan’s up 1.6 bp and China’s 3.9 bp, while Australia’s was up 6.5 bp.. Stock markets meanwhile were mostly lower after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Bond markets were under pressure across the Asia Pacific region with inflation risks and the Fed outlook in focus. China’s PBOC failed to cut the MLF interest rate as many had expected and the RBA minutes also flagged heightened uncertainty on the inflation outlook, even as the bank vowed to remain patient on rates for now. Growth data out of China may have been stronger than anticipated, but the country’s Covid policy, which has now shut down the important tech hub of Shenzhen, has investors spooked. USD (USDIndex under the 99 mark). US Yields US 10-year rate has corrected -1.2 bp to 2.12%. Equities – Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost a further -5.7% and -4.2% respectively. The ASX was down -0.7% at the close. The USA100 slumped -2.04%, with the USA500 falling -0.74%, and the USA30 unchanged. USOil – shed to $95.13 as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine eased fears of further supply disruptions and surging COVID-19 cases in China fuelled concerns about slower demand. Gold – lower at $1929 on higher yields ahead of Fed meeting. FX markets – USDJPY continues to rise and is now at 118.35. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD retests 1.1020, GBPUSD holds below 1.3050. European Open: The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, Treasury futures are also finding buyers. Some consolidation then after the sharp sell off in EGBs yesterday, with safe haven flows picking up again, and GER30 and FTSE 100 futures posting losses of -0.8% and -0.94% respectively. Concern that overly aggressive central bank moves could stifle growth has picked up again and hopes of a quick breakthrough in Ukraine-Russian peace talks were also disappointed yesterday. There was some positive noise on talks between the US and China, but at the same time there are some suggestions China is indeed mulling economic and military assistance to Russia. Today – For data German ZEW and US February PPI are due. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-5.82%) Dipped to 95.13. MAs pointing down, MACD signal line & histogram extend below 0, RSI 30 & falling, all implying negative bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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