HFM Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Date : 14th July 2021. Market Update – July 14 – Central banks are gearing up!. Q2 earnings got off to a lackluster start Tuesday. Hefty earnings beats from JPM & Goldman Sachs were overshadowed by concerns over revenues& as a lot of the strength was on easy comps. US: A much hotter than expected CPI print & very poorly bid 30-yr bond auction were a potent combination for a Treasuries selloff. The combo also left Wall Street heavy. June CPI surged 0.9% on both headline & core, more than double the estimate for the overall index & 3x the forecast for the ex-food & energy component. For the former it was the biggest jump since June 2008, while for the latter it tied for the largest since late 1981. Asia: Bonds across the Asia-Pacific region were under pressure though & New Zealand’s 10-yr rate spiked 7.3 bp to 1.73% after the RBNZ unexpectedly decided to end large scale asset purchases by July 23. Stock markets mostly struggled, though the ASX managed to lift 0.4%, despite extended virus restrictions in some parts. JPN225 is -0.3%. The NZX 50 is down -0.5%. UK CPI inflation unexpectedly jumped to 2.5% y/y from 2.1% y/y in the previous month. A strong round of numbers, even if PPI readings show a slight deceleration in price pressures. The official BoE line has been that inflation overshoots will be transitory, but after today’s round of higher than expected numbers, labour market data later in the week will be watched very carefully. Fed Chair Powell testimony preview: Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (aka Humphrey Hawkins) & his comments will be especially scrutinized after another hefty CPI jump. However, while he will likely indicate that price pressures have been above Fed expectations, we expect him to reiterate the price pressures should be “transitory” & largely a function of base effects & the supply/demand impacts from reopenings & supply chain constraints. He will also repeat that the FOMC is not yet ready to begin withdrawing accommodation as the labor market has yet to fully recover. And he won’t give a timeline on QE unwinding. FX markets: GER30 & UK100 are down -0.1% & -0.007% respectively, while US futures are still narrowly mixed, with the USA100 future outperforming. NZD rallied in the wake of the hawkish turn at the RBNZ. USD is steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 110.53. EUR & GBP lifted against a largely weaker USD, although EURUSD remains below 1.18 & Cable below 1.39. USOIL meanwhile is at $75.06 per barrel. Today – Data releases today focus on US June PPI, BoC Monetary Policy & Press Conference & the first day Testimony from Fed Chair Powell. The earnings calendar includes BOA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Blackrock. Central banks are likely to gradually reduce the extraordinary degree of stimulus later in the year, but monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long time to come which should see economies through virus setbacks. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.20%). Kiwi spiked to 0.7030 following the RBNZ’s unexpected move. Momentum indicators are still positively configured with exception of Stochastics which flattened into the OB area implying a potential sideways move. Fast MAs aligned higher. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 Date : 15th July 2021. Market Update – July 15 -“Don’t worry about it”. September 10-year Bund future rallied with Treasury futures overnight & in cash markets the US 10-yr rate corrected a further -1.3 bp to 1.33%. Υields also dropped in Australia & New Zealand, with the former outperforming despite a drop in the unemployment rate to just 4.9% – the lowest in 10 years. EGBs also ended higher yesterday after Fed Chairman Powell calmed nerves on the inflation front & managed to ease fears the Fed will move earlier than expected on tapering- Tapering is still “a ways off.” The BoC left rates unchanged, as expected, while cutting its weekly QE purchases by C$1.0 bln, also as expected. The BoC statement left forward guidance unchanged from the previous meeting, though did downgrade 2021 GDP modestly while upping growth expectations for 2022. BoE’s Bailey & ECB’s Schnabel were also out to calm nerves, with Bailey highlighting the central bank will need to assess the transitory factors that are driving headline rates at the moment, though comments from Ramsden sounded more cautious on inflation risks – no rush on rate decision. Asia stock markets traded mixed after today’s round of growth data out of China. China Q2 GDP growth slightly weaker than expected at 7.9%. UK ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted to 4.8% in the three months to May and pick up in employment fell short of expectations at just 25K. Earnings: BOA shares fell after revenue declined from a year earlier because of a 6% drop in net interest income due to lower interest rates. Citigroup beat analysts’ estimates for profit, thanks to a $1.1 billion boost from releasing reserves the bank had previously set aside for loan losses. Wells Fargo posted Q2 profit of $1.38 a share as revenue jumped 11% from a year earlier to $20.3 billion, soundly beating Wall Street’s expectations despite weak demand for loans. BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in Q2 from $7.32 trillion a year earlier. FX markets: USD steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 109.74. EUR & GBP lifted against a weaker USD, though EURUSD is at 1.1846 & Cable below 1.3865. USOIL dips to $71.44 per barrel – the combination of a reported production agreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, allowing the Emirates to pump more oil in 2022, combined with an unexpected weekly rise in US fuel supplies, has weighed on prices. Gold topped at 1,832 (50% Fib). Today – Fed Chair Powell’s testimony day 2 and Jobless claims. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) EURCAD (+0.27%). CAD headed lower, despite the taper move, in what appeared to be a case of sell the rumor, buy the news. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 Date : 16th July 2021. Market Update – July 16 – Stocks stalled. Curve-flattening trades pressed longer dated Treasury rates lower again Thursday after Fed Chair Powell did not change his tune regarding the view on inflation; that it should be temporary, & that an accommodative stance is still necessary. The curve collapsed to 108 bps, having retreated from 116 bps early in the week. It was the narrowest since February . Elsewhere BoJ did the expected & kept policy settings unchanged for now, but cut back its growth forecast for this year. JPN225 share average dipped below the psychologically key 28,000 mark as tech shares tracked declines on Wall Street overnight, while a continued surge in coronavirus infections dented investor sentiment. Weakness in chip-related shares also helped bring down USA500 & USA100. European stock markets struggled yesterday, Gilts sold off & Bunds pared gains as BoE’s Saunders added to comments from Deputy Governor Ramsden suggesting asset purchases may have to end earlier than previously expected. At the same time, the Delta variant & concern over the fallout from recent devastating floods in Germany could also weigh on the GER30 today. Mixed earnings, uncertainties over inflation & Covid, along with current richly priced valuations prompted some profit taking. FX markets: EURUSD dropped to 1.1806, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3810. NZD up 0.6% at $0.7020 after consumer prices rose far faster than expected, bringing forward markets’ rate hike expectations to August. USOIL stayed under pressure drifting below $71.00 barrier. Gold on the other hand hit a 1-month high of $1,834.3, supported by a dovish Fed. Today – Eurozone May trade & June CPI. US releases include Retail Sales & Michigan Index. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.88%). NZD remains the biggest mover amongst majors in the Asia session, & so far, however the rally seems to have run out of steam as fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 55. MACD’s signal line remains negative while Stochastics gives mixed signals at OB area. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 19, 2021 Author Share Posted July 19, 2021 Date : 19th July 2021. Sharp selloffs on European Open. Wall Street losses persisted through the Friday session, with the major indices all ending lower. Stocks got a brief boost from the stronger US retail sales data, though the dive in consumer sentiment, including upped inflation concerns, took the wind out of the rally’s sails. Today, in the Asia session and on European open: The 10-year Treasury yield was down and bonds were also supported, with Australia’s 10-year down -4.4 bp at 1.233%, as stocks were hit by growth concerns. The September 10-year Bund future is up 42 ticks at 175.29, outperforming versus Treasury futures. GER30 and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively. Reuters – Japan kept the overall assessment of its economy unchanged for a second straight month in July, retaining the view that conditions remain severe due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Tech stocks struggled. – China’s crackdown on Tech giants Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com and Pinduoduo extending low amid new anti-monopoly and data security rules in China. Reports of issues with Japan’s supply chain have been noted, with suppliers in countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam falling behind on production due to Covid shutdowns. Zoom Video Communications Inc ZM.O, the videoconferencing service that became a household name globally during the pandemic, plans to parlay some of the resulting rise in its share price into a $14.7 billion acquisition to secure growth. Oil prices declined on oversupply worries – OPEC and its allies agreed to ease output restrictions and supply cuts, including Russia which agreed new production allocations and a gradual phasing out of supply cuts, that will increase supply by around 400K barrels. Focus will remain on the Covid spread around the region with the Delta variant continuing to cause worries. FX markets: In FX markets the Yen was supported by safe haven demand, and USDJPY dropped back to 109.84, although the Dollar climbed against most other currencies. EURUSD is little changed at 1.1803, while Cable dropped to 1.3746. AUD hit its lowest level in 2021, at 0.7372. USOIL stayed at the $70.60-$71.60 barrier. Gold edged higher, lifted by a retreat in US Treasury yields and concerns that a surge in coronavirus cases could dampen global economic recovery, though an uptick in the Dollar limited the safe-haven metal’s appeal. Today – The calendar is pretty empty to start the week, hence growth concerns are dominating and developments will add to expectations that the ECB will strengthen the dovish tone of the forward guidance at Thursday’s council meeting. Biggest mover @ (8:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.66%). The Yen was supported by safe haven demand, while CAD dips on USOIL weakness. An aggressive selloff of CADJPY broke all Support levels for the day with next Support at 86 and 200-day SMA at 85.78. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 20, 2021 Author Share Posted July 20, 2021 Date : 20th July 2021. Risk sensitive assets plummet on recovery fears! Risk off trades continued to dominate the Asian part of the session, but there are signs of stabilisation. Stocks declined as fears that the rapid spread of the Delta variant will delay re-openings and force extended lockdowns in countries with lower vaccination rates continue to fuel risk aversion. Investors will be keeping a very close eye on virus developments, but speculation that market developments will delay central bank tapering plans should put a floor under markets that have corrected from very high levels. Today, in the Asia session and on European open: Bond markets continued to play catch up with the sharp rally in Treasuries yesterday. Australia’s 10-year rate is down -6.2 bp , New Zealand’s has corrected -7.8 bp and China’s 10-year bond is -1.5 bp richer. Japan’s CPI rate nudged higher in June, with core lifting to 0.2%. Data are not expected to change the course of the BoJ. Developer Evergrande slumped after local authorities halted some of its sales. US futures are down and in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 1.1 bp to 1.200%. – Currently the USA100 has rebounded with 0.4% gains. September 10-year Bund future is little changed. – GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. German PPI inflation lifted to 8.5% y/y in June – remains mainly driven by developments in commodity prices. RBA minutes: Strengthen rather than taper QE as stock markets continue to sell off. In Australia, nearly half the country’s 25 million people are living under lockdowns to quell an outbreak of the Delta variant. US yield curve continues to steepen. JPMorgan’s HuiP: “reflects reduced inflation expectations if reopening is delayed and potential downside risk to the economy, but that value and cyclical sectors should continue to outperform over the next 6-12 months given the ongoing recovery globally.” Today’s data calendar in Europe and the US remains pretty quiet, with US housing starts, while neither German PPI nor Eurozone current account numbers are likely to change the outlook much. FX markets: In FX markets the USD remained supported by safe haven bids and EURUSD dipped to 1.1773, while GBPUSD is at 1.3647 crossing the 200-day SMA. Safe-harbour currencies like the JPY and USD traded near multi-month highs against the riskier AUD, NZD and GBP. USDJPY is little changed at 109.35-109.60. USOIL prices stabilised at 66.50. Key mover: USOIL – Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday after slumping around 7%. The aggressive selloff of USOIL was fueled by worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. The contract for August, which expires later on today, was up 15% at $66.57 a barrel. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 22, 2021 Author Share Posted July 22, 2021 Date : 22nd July 2021. Market Update – July 22 – USD cools as risk aversion slides. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – USD dipped from 3-mth highs, USDIndex down (from 93.18 to 92.80) as Equities bounce back, recovering all of Monday’s fall on the back of strong Earnings (+0.8% & VIX back to 20.00). Yields recovered to 1.28% (20yr auction filled at 1.89%). Virus concerns continue to weigh. OIL Inventories +2.4m vs -4.6m expected, USOil futures touched $70.00, Gold back under $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD trade & Confidence data mixed. (50% of popn. remain in lockdown). European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, U.S. futures are also slightly higher, so the positive momentum that dominated yesterday’s session remains in place, albeit with a slightly more cautious tone to start the day. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1793, Cable at 1.3719. Earnings reports helped to underpin stock market sentiment on Wednesday and company news will remain in focus today, but for the Eurozone the main item on the agenda is the ECB policy meeting. ECB Preview – The central bank is expected to keep overall settings unchanged, but Lagarde has hinted that the forward guidance will be tweaked following the change in the inflation target and markets are hoping for a commitment to ongoing support beyond the immediate crisis phase. So the meeting is now of more significance and LIVE…. Today – The ECB policy announcement, US Weekly Claims & EZ consumer confidence and Earnings from Abbot Labs, Blackstone, AT&T, Intel, Snap & Twitter. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (+0.35%). Bounced from 13-mth low at 0.9216 yesterday to 0.9267 highs earlier. Breached 21EMA earlier, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 53 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising but significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0061. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 Date : 23rd July 2021. Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher. Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home. ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism. Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 Date : 26th July 2021. Market Update – July 26 – Chinese Regulators weigh on sentiment. Market News Today – USD dipped in early week trades (USDIndex 92.80 from over 93.00 on Friday) – Chinese & HK stock markets sank on more talk of regulation tightening. US equity markets traded at ATH’s again on Friday (USA500 +1%) on strong Earnings and expectations. Yields closed the week at 1.28. USD remains bid overall but softer this morning. Overnight – JPY CPI was a tick firmer, although Manu. PMI’s were weaker. Chinese PMI’s missed over the weekend and added to weaker Asian markets to start the big week ahead. Gold holds at 1807, from 1798 and USOil is down to 70.40 from 71.60. Week Ahead – Rather significant – We have the FED, US GDP and PCE. A massive week ahead for US stock markets too – one third (30%+) of the S&P500 report 2Q Earnings including TSLA (today) APPL, AMZN, FB, & Alphabet & MSFT…over 20% of companies have reported already and 88% have beat (much improved from Q1) expectations. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is up 27 ticks at 176.08, Treasury futures are also moving higher, with the Ultra Bond outperforming, as stock market sentiment is hit by concern that the Delta variant will delay the recovery mounting worries over the impact of China’s clampdown on the tech sector. China and Hong Kong bourses sold off sharply overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.5%, while a -0.5% decline in the Dow Jones is leading U.S. futures lower. In FX markets EURUSD is at 1.1779, USDJPY at 110.17 from 110.55 earlier and Cable at 1.3751. Today – German Ifo, BoE and US supply and earnings from Tesla, LockheedMartin, Hasbro and Logitech. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.53%) Big move lower for the key risk-off pair, on Chinese tightening and JPY data. Dived from 81.50, under 20 MA, Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line and moving loer, RS 31 and moving lower testing OS zone, Stochs weak and already OS. H1 ATR 0.117, Daily ATR 0.842. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 Date : 23rd July 2021. Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher. Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home. ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism. Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 Date : 28th July 2021. Market Update – July 28 – Risk aversion ahead of FED. LONDON “It is not China’s aggressive foreign policy that is the source of the disturbance in the capital markets, but its aggressiveness at home as it asserts over control parts of the tech sector and toughens its anti-trust efforts.” – Marc Chandler Treasuries have led European bonds higher, as stock markets remain cautious ahead of the FOMC announcement. Risk aversion continues to dominate as virus developments cloud over the outlook for growth in the second quarter. Also, China’s regulatory clampdown spooks investors. The delta variant is keeping central banks in wait and see mode for now although the more hawkish camps are likely to push for a discussion on tapering after the summer – at least in the central scenario. BoJ’s summary of opinions also highlighted the need for ongoing caution with regard to tightening. Earnings reports have actually been better than expected on the whole. – GER30 and UK100 futures are still down -0.2%, US futures also slightly lower. Australia bonds rallied despite a spike in CPI inflation to 3.8% y/y in the second quarter. German GfK consumer confidence held steady in the advance reading for August, against expectations for a further marked improvement. US reports revealed a modest under-performance for the durable goods figures and another robust round of home price gains. For durables, the June data were modestly disappointing, but most May metrics were revised upward, leaving only a slight disappointment. In FX markets: The USDIndex lifted out of a 13-day low, while EURUSD concurrently ebbed back towards the 1.1800 level, down from yesterday’s 13-day high at 1.1841. The Dollar remained comparatively softer versus the Pound, which rallied across-the-board yesterday as markets reacted to the sharp drop in Covid cases and the IMF’s sharp upward revision in its UK growth forecast for 2021, which, to recap, it expects at 7.0% and would mark the joint fastest growth out of the major advanced economies. Cable settled just off Tuesday’s 13-day peak at 1.3895. AUDUSD was heavy, AUDJPY also managed to hold above its Tuesday lows after a sharp decline yesterday and USDCAD ebbed back to the upper 1.2500s after yesterday’s short-lived foray above 1.2600, which left Friday’s peak at 1.2608 unchallenged. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF(+0.57%) – Spiked to 0.7280 from 0.7245, breaking PP. Currently the fast MAs are flattened, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line, and RSI is at 46 and moving lower with all suggesting that the spike was limited and a pullback could be seen. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Date : 29th July 2021. Market Update – July 29 – Equities gained on the back of a dovish FED. Narrow ranges prevailed across asset classes yesterday and there wasn’t too much of a reaction to yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Fed provided some buying impetus and both stocks and bonds closed with modest gains in tandem with Treasuries and Wall Street. Overnight, the Treasury yields lifted 0.3 bp to 1.24% as Chinese shares led a broad rebound in Asian stock markets. Like the ECB, the Fed signalled progress on the recovery, but also effectively signalled a cautious wait and see stance over the summer.– The FOMC signalled patience on tapering. Chinese officials stepped up efforts to reassure investors, with state run media questioning whether the correction in equities was overdone and reports suggesting China will continue to allow local firms to go public in the US. China’s central bank boosted cash injections by adding 30 billion Yuan. Australia import and export prices came in higher than anticipated, which left local bonds paring earlier gains. Topixand JPN225 are currently up 0.2% and 0.6%. GER30and UK100 futures are down -0.1% though and US futures narrowly mixed, as investors wait for US GDP data. Weekly US inventory data showed a 4.1 mln barrel draw on stockpiles, more than the median forecast for a 3.43 mln draw. A Reuters reporthighlights analysts are expecting a quicker-than-is-being-anticipated plateau in summer oil demand across the northern hemisphere due to the impact of new restrictions in the face of the Delta variant driven spike in new Covid cases. Proposed US infrastructure deallooks to higher taxes on crypto for part of the funding. Pfizer Inc. in Q2 2021 jumped 92% on the year to $19 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Nissan Motor and some semiconductor firms (Advantest, Screen Holdings, TDK) delivered surprisingly strong earnings. In FX markets: Both the EUR and the Pound have moved higher against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD now at 1.1863 and Cable at 1.3936. USDJPY dropped back to 109.66. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $72.20 per barrel. Gold prices spiked to 1819 as the US Federal Reserve chairman struck a dovish tone after the policy meeting. Today: The European calendar is busy today with German HICP inflation and labour market data alongside the Eurozone ESI economic confidence reading. Markets are also waiting for US GDP data. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.72%) – Spiked to 1819.81 breaking 20-, 50- and 200-day EMA. Currently the fast MAs are still aligned higher as MACD signal line & histogram point northwards and RSI extended to 71.60 suggesting that the positive bias increases. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 Date : 30th July 2021. Market Update – July 30. Improved demand for risk boosted Wall Street overnight and weighed on Treasuries amid myriad crosscurrents. The markets are busy repositioning in the last week of July now that the Fed is safely out of the way with little likelihood for a tapering announcement until at least November. The miss on Q2 GDP was overlooked as inventories were the major culprit, while the surge in the price indicators to near 4-decade highs added to the pressure on bonds. The focus turned back to earnings, data, the Delta variant, and the infrastructure deal out of Washington. Good earnings news in general supported stocks with the USA30 and USA500 leading the way with gains of 0.4%, while the USA100 rose 0.1% as concerns over guidance from heavyweights, including Facebook and PayPal (beat earnings estimates, but guided lower), limited enthusiasm. Amazon’s online sales growth is slowing as lockdowns ease. Amazon’s core online store business disappointed, since it grew 15%, the slowest rate since 2019, despite it bringing forward its flagship Prime Day sales event to June. In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are also down -0.7% and -0.6% respectively. In FX markets: EUR and GBP corrected against a stronger USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1877 and Cable at 1.3980. USDJPY lifted to 109.60, although the Yen was steady to higher versus most other currencies. USOIL is at $73.38 per barrel. Gold was little changed at $1,831. USOIL’s rally to 2-week highs over $73.20 on tight US supplies helped the CAD today as well. The market ignored the small uptick in Canada May average weekly earnings. USOIL stabilized at 72.60 today while PP is set at 72.45 and Resistance is at 73.00 and 73.30. Today: The calendar is busy and focuses on Q2 GDP numbers for the Eurozone and Germany, which is expected to show a strong rebound from the contraction in the first quarter, while preliminary HICP readings could come in higher than anticipated, after strong German numbers yesterday. US CPI is also on tap, and it should decline -0.8% in June following the -2.0% May drop. Spending is forecast rising 0.9% after the unchanged reading in May. Weakness should result in a -5.5% decline in “current transfer receipts” after an -11.7% May plunge, as this measure tracks the pull-back in stimulus spending. This will more than offset the 0.5% rise in compensation. The savings rate should fall to 10.8% from 12.4% in May and a 27.6% peak in March. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broforex51 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 AUDCHF today as we see here, the trend is still bearish, so it is good if you just follow the trend, you can open sell position when the price breaks support area 0.66408 with potential target up to 50 pips below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 Date : 2nd August 2021. Market Update – August 2 – USD consolidates at lows. Market News Today – USD up from 1-month lows (USDIndex 92.00 from 91.75 Friday) – Chinese & Asian stock markets rise, despite weak Chinese PMI & other Asian data. US equity markets closed lower on Friday (-0.54% USA500 4395) led by -7.56% fall for AMZN. Yields closed the week down at 1.239%. Overnight – HSBC beat earnings significantly, adding to good news from other European banks. AUD housing market still hot, JPY consumer confidence ticks up, German Retail sales bounce back significantly. Gold down again at 1808, USOil also down, but up from a test of 72.00, earlier. Week Ahead – Another key week to start the month – RBA, BoE, CAD Jobs, NFP & a raft of PMI data. European Open – DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.5% & 0.4% respectively, US futures posting gains of 0.5-0.6% after an upbeat session across Asia-Pacific region overnight. In FX markets both EUR & GBP little changed against USD, with EURUSD at 1.1873 & Cable at 1.3909. China jitters eased & there was some progress on the (much reduced) US infrastructure spending plan, which helped underpin sentiment. Virus developments in Asia continue to cause worries, but for Europe at least the hope is that advanced vaccination campaigns will allow economies to get through this wave without the type of restrictions that could seriously hurt the recovery. Central banks are cautious though as there are still lingering risks that will likely also keep the BoE in wait & see mode this week. Today – EU, UK, US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI Earnings: AXA, Heineken, Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 1.0517 (2021 and 33 week lows) on Friday. Weak breach of 21 EMA earlier, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line but moving higher, RS 55, neutral but rising, Stochs rising and already into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0051. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 Date : 3rd August 2021. Market Update – August 3 – USD, Equites & Yields Pressured on weak data & Virus surge. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – USD pressured again (USDIndex struggles @ 92.00) on weak data yesterday & virus surge in Southern low-vaccination states. JPY & CHF benefit – Yields lead – down again; 10yr 1.51%, lows – closed at 1.74%. Equities flat into close (USA500 4387). Oil dumps -3.5%, CAD sinks. RBA more Hawkish than expected – AUD rallied – September taper looks set though cautious undertones remain amid concerns over housing market & virus & vaccination situation. Chinese & Asian stock markets very mixed after more Chinese clampdowns (this time on Gaming) and virus surge in China. Fed’s WALLER (Hawk) suggests September taper announcement. Overnight data mixed; better CPI for Tokyo, weaker Housing approvals for AUD. Gold holds at 1808 but USOil down significantly to test 70.00, yesterday and only 70.30 now. European Open – September 10-yr Bund future fractionally higher, US futures marginally lower, while in cash markets 10-yr Treasury rate is struggling at 1.176%. The real 10-yr Treasury yield remains close to record low. DAX & FTSE100 futures down -0.2% & -0.1% respectively, US futures up 0.2-0.3% after a largely weaker Asia session. With little on the European calendar to distract markets those will likely also be the themes for the European AM session, alongside earnings reports. The BoE decision tomorrow is also coming into view with the UK expected to join Fed & ECB & signal cautious patience for now. Today – US Factory Orders, Fed’s Bowman, – Earnings: Generali, Societe Generale, BMW, Infineon, BP, Standard Chartered, Alibaba, Phillps 66, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 0.8680 (14 day low yesterday) as Oil prices tumbled and NZD got a lift from Hawkish RBA. Significant breach of 21 EMA yesterday, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and moving higher, RS 78 and well into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0060. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 Date : 5th August 2021. Market Update – August 5 – USD Holds gains following Hawkish Clarida. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.20) & Yields (10yr 1.20%) boosted. Fed Vice Chair Clarida continues hawkish tilt. Earlier big miss for ADP (330k vs 700k) had seen Yields tank to 1.127% (6-mth low) & USDIndex 91.80 before big beat for ISM Non-Manu. PMI & Clarida’s “rate lift-off in 2023” & “tapering in 2021” comments. Equities mixed at close (USA500 -0.46% 4402). Asian markets hold gains. Oil inventories show a big build (+3.6m vs -3.2m & -4.1m last week) – USOil declined further to $67.16 (11-day low) recovered $68.00 handle now. Gold spiked to $1830 after ADP, back to $1810 now. German Factory orders – a big beat 4.1% vs 2.1%. European Open – September 10-yr Bund future up 20 ticks, while Treasury futures are slightly lower, as investors continue to digest comments from Clarida, who said he was surprised by the extent of the slide in global yields – indeed it seems surprising that with the recovery now pretty much confirmed, the German 10-yr rate should be at -0.503%, i.e. lower than the deposit rate. BOE Outlook – Some risk of hawkish twist. The bank is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, but some expect Bailey to explain the outcome of the review on how to best withdraw stimulus when the time comes. If he does, it should not be seen as a sign of imminent tightening, but could spook markets, especially after Clarida’s comments yesterday. US futures are fractionally higher. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1840, while Cable is at 1.3925 ahead of BOE. Today – US weekly jobs, BoE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Fed’s Waller. Earnings: Adidas, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Lufthansa, Deutsche Post, Siemens, Glencore, Rolls Royce, WPP, ViacomCBS, Kellogg. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.32%) Rallied from 80.50 support to 81.00 yesterday before closing lower at 80.75. Retesting 81.00 again today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 60 and still rising. H1 ATR 0.081, Daily ATR 0.710. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 6, 2021 Author Share Posted August 6, 2021 Date : 6th August 2021. Market Update – August 6 – USD Firmer on Jobs Day. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.35) & Yields (10yr 1.237%) both higher today ahead of NFP. Weekly claims were in-line (385K). Equities rallied into close (USA500 +0.46% 4429). Asian markets weaker again on virus worries. BOE implied that rates hikes may come sooner than expected, avoided direct talk on taper and raised inflation expectations to 4%. Overnight – Significantly weaker JPY and German data. USOil rallied from $67.13 (12-day low) to $69.00 handle now. Gold spiked down to $1798 and struggles to hold the key $1800 now. The US Senate could agreed $1 trillion infra. plan on Saturday. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, Treasury futures are underperforming and in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is up 1.1 bp at 1.24%. Tapering speculation is creeping back in and markets will be cautious ahead of today’s all important US payroll report. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently flat, up 0.019% and down -0.057%, respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower. Eurozone markets extended higher with Wall Street yesterday, but caution is likely to prevail ahead of the payroll report today. Today – US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, BoE’s Bailey – Earnings: Allianz, ING, Hikma Pharmaceutical, LSE, Dominion Energy. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+0.85%) Rallied from 12 day fall to 4.3000 yesterday to test 20-day MA at 4.3930 today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 76, OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.0103, Daily ATR 0.1014. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Date : 9th August 2021. Market Update – August 9 – Gold dips to 1681. Market News Today – Bonds across Asia-Pacific were mostly under pressure, while stocks moved higher. September 10-year Bund future is down 5 ticks at 176.45, outperforming slightly versus US futures. That ties in with pressure on bond markets during Asian hours. Japan is on holiday today, but elsewhere concern over China’s regulatory clampdown eased, which helped underpin risk appetite, as did progress on the US infrastructure plan, which is expected to be signed off by the Senate early this week. Part of the move higher in local markets will also be catch up trade following the stellar US jobs report last week. The spread of the Delta variant continues to cloud over the outlook for global growth & that is also a key reason behind the slide in oil prices. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.1% and -0.2% respectively and US futures are also posting losses of around -0.1/0.2%. In FX markets both EUR and GBP are little changed against the USD at 1.1763 and 1.3870 respectively. USD (USDIndex 92.74) & Yields (10yr 1.297%) both higher. JPY eased to 110.18, while USOIL prices continued to slide, currently to $66.32 per barrel. Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today. Today – Data releases today focus on German trade data which beat expectations in June in rising 1.3% m/m, after a mere 0.4% m/m in the previous month. Import growth meanwhile slowed to 0.6% m/m from 3.4% m/m, which left the sa trade surplus of EUR 13.6 bln, up from EUR 12.8 bln in May. Elseswhere we have Jolts Job Openings and FOMC speeches from Bostic and Barkin (voters). Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today (-4.4%) Drifted by nearly 82 points from 1,764.59 to 1,681.83. Faster MA’s clashed, MACD signal line currently below histogram well below 0, RSI 39, all suggesting that the dip reached its end and correction took over. H1 ATR 12.65, Daily ATR 24.20. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Date : 10th August 2021. Market Update – August 10 – Qualm gains in the market. Market News Today – Treasuries have been supported and bond as well as stock markets have traded cautiously mixed across the Asia Pacific region. Another stellar jobs report and hawkish Fedspeak weighed on Treasuries yesterday. Stock markets across the region are mostly higher though and even the ASX lifted 0.35% despite the slump in Australia business confidence. In Europe, the 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks and continuing to outperform versus Treasuries although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.0 bp to 1.31%. Sentiment continues to swing between concern that US labour market developments will see the Fed discussing tapering in earnest and fear that the rapid spread of the delta variant will harm the recovery as governments implement new virus measures that slow down output and demand. GER30 and UK100 are fractionally lower, as are US futures. In FX markets the JPY is under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 110.39. NZD and to a lesser extent AUD also eased as tightening speculation was scaled back. EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar at 1.1735 and 1.3844 respectively. The USOIL price reversed and is currently at $67.27 per barrel. Gold recovered after a sharp fall. Today – The key data release for this week is today’s German ZEW investor sentiment reading for August. Elsewhere we have the US NonFarm Productivity. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT + 1.10%) USOIL rebounded to 67.28 from 64.98. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD lines steadied at zero impliying consolidation in the short term, while Stochastics are above 80 pointing further up. H1 ATR 0.31, Daily ATR 1.83. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Date : 16th August 2021. Market Update – August 16 – Sentiment, USD, Equities & Yields slip on weaker Chinese data. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.50) ticks higher, Yields (10yr 1.248%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street on Friday, even after record miss for UoM consumer sentiment. DAX Futures over 16k for first time ever. Overnight – Weaker Chinese data, record Covid-19 cases in Japan and a new lockdown extension in Melbourne on top of the news from Afghanistan weighs on sentiment. Better data from JPY (beat for GDP) & NZD (better PMI’s) ignored. USOil down to break under $67.00 and Gold holds at $1775. Week Ahead – FED Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ Rate Decision, EUR GDP, US Retail Sales, Global CPI data, European Open – Bailey & Lagarde will not attend Jackson Hole in person. Weak data releases out of the US, Japan and China has sapped confidence in the global recovery and given bond another boost. Core EGB yields were already supported on Friday, after the massive miss in U.S. confidence confidence reading and the September 10-year Bund future is up 29 ticks, pointing to further gains EGBs to start the week. Stock markets may still have clocked fresh records last week, also helped by expectations of ongoing central bank support, but sentiment clearly has turned cautious over the weekend. Today – NY Fed Manufacturing (Empire State). Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.58%) Broke from support at 81.00 on Friday to close at 80.75, moved lower today on weak sentiment and risk-off mood, currently testing 80.20. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 22; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.108, Daily ATR 0.530. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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