official Market Analysis And News by Hotforex.com

[HFM]

Date : 9th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2019.


 

• Stock markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony, after jobs data reduced hopes of big rate cuts from the Fed.
• Tech stocks were hit by a slump in Apple Inc. after a broker downgrade.
• Topix and Nikkei pared early gains in the course of the session and are currently down -0.22% and up 0.06% respectively.
• Central bank expectations remain a major force for stock market moves, amid lingering geopolitical trade tensions, which are far from over despite the restart of US-Sino talks.
• European futures as well as US futures are down -0.3-0.4% with the Nasdaq underperforming.
• In Europe, BTPs are currently outperforming, but Greek bonds, which rallied yesterday on the election result, are paring some of the gains.
• Released overnight, UK BRC retail sales came in weaker than expected and fell back -1.6% m/m in the same store measure. Still to come are Italian retail sales numbers and an I/L auction in Germany.
• Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold in the USD 57-58 range, with the WTI future currently trading at USD 57.50.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• GBPUSD retests again the 6-month low into EU open, at 1.2483. EURGBP remained buoyant, but markets still lacked the muster for a test of the recent six-month high at 0.8992. A 0.3% m/m contraction in the Halifax measure of UK house prices (released Friday) was the latest in a series of data disappointments out of the UK. As for Brexit, the news flow has remains quiet in terms of substantive developments. That will change as soon as the new prime minister, most likely no-deal-Brexit-if-necessary Boris Johnson, takes up the reigns (which will be later in the month). Cable has resistance at 1.2510-20. Next Support at 1.2420.
• Silver: Despite the decline seen the last 2 days, Silver manage to be held above the 20- and 50-week SMA, sustaining more than 50% of the gains seen in June. Breaching the uptrend Support at 14.90 and also the small bounce up to 15.10 suggest that the corrective pressure is growing again. The RSI is sloping to the upside again but still remains below 50 in the daily chart, while MACD remains within the positive area following a bear cross last week. The key level at $15.10 is now a Resistance whilst traction below the $14.90 would open $14.60 as the next Support. A break above Resistance couls retest the $15.25-$15.35 area.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Fed Chair Powell Speech on Boston (USD, GMT 12:45)
• JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.

Support and Resistance levels
 


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2019.


 

• Markets take a defensive stance ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress and the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting.
• Speaking overnight Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the central bank is debating the risks and benefits of letting the economy run a “little hotter” and while most are still expecting a 25 bp “insurance cut” this month, there are fears that Powell may close the door to rate cut hopes.
• GER30 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed and US futures slightly in the red, after a mixed session in Asia overnight.
• KOSPI and KOSDAQ recovered as Japan and South Korea said they are planning talks on the trade tensions. Japan’s new export restrictions on materials vital to South Korea’s tech industry, and hopes of thawing relations helped KOSDAQ to gain 1.6%, elsewhere moves were pretty muted.
• Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming, but yields are also up across Italy, Spain and Portugal.
• Trade risks, US-Iran tensions and in Europe the risk of a no-deal Brexit scenario keep markets looking to central banks for support.
• The WTI future meanwhile surged to $58.76 per barrel, after US data showed another drop in stock piles, which dampened concerns about oversupply.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURGBP has forayed above 0.9000 for the first time since early January while Cable has descended into 27-month low territory. EURGBP has now made this the 8th week out of the last nine where a new higher high has been set. The Pound has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016.
• USDJPY was stopped in its tracks at 6-week highs of 108.96, the level coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average. Profit taking ensued, which took the pairing to 108.76 lows in early NY and Asia session. In addition to the noted technical resistance, Japanese exporter offers are reportedly parked from the 109.00 level, which should help cap gains going forward.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
• Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2019.



FX News Today

• FOMC minutes of the June meeting were a little anti-climactic following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. However, there were “many” indications that an easier policy stance was the more desired outcome.
• 10-year Treasury yields dropped -2.3 bp to 2.039% overnight, and reopened soft, stopped at 2.064% tailing out from 2.057%.
• US stocks rise, yields drop, Powell’s testimony supported rate cut expectations.
• The S&P 500 briefly topped the 3000 mark for the first time, but the index didn’t manage to hold these levels as stocks generally came off highs.
• USD lower as Powell signals July FOMC rate cut.
• The WTI future is trading at $60.57 per barrel, amid reports that Iranian boats attempted to “impede” the passage of a British tanker.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• FX Update: The USD posted fresh lows during the pre-Europe session in Asia as markets continued to readjust Fed easing expectations in the wake of Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, which was consistent with a 25 bp rate cut at the end of this month with an addendum stipulating that the Fed has the tools needed and could use them “aggressively” if necessary. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has declined by about 0.6% over the last day, earlier printing a six-day low at 96.90, while EURUSD rose to a six-day high at 1.1280 and USDJPY posted a six-day low at 107.86. The US currency saw a similar magnitude of decline against other currencies. In the mix has been an unexpected upward revision to June German HICP, to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, while news that Iran tried to intercept a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (London claiming that its navel ship HMS Montrose saw off three Iranian vessels with “verbal warnings”) saw front-month WTI crude prices spike above $60.0, the first time above this level since late May.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
• Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00)

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2019.



FX News Today

• Treasuries recovered during the Asian session after better than expected data and a weak auction put pressure on bonds yesterday.
• Bonds across Asia were under pressure though and JGB yields moved up 2.6 bp to -0.121%, while Australia’s 10-year yield jumped 12.0 bp to 1.450%.The RBA already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment, which.
• Stock markets were cautious ahead of trade and lending data out of China today, which are expected to set the tone for GDP numbers out on Monday.
• With Powell’s testimony out of the way the focus is shifting back to the impact of trade tensions and after Singapore reported the weakest GDP growthnumber in a decade investors are holding back before taking fresh positions especially after a tweet by US President Trump saying China was not living up to promisesmade on buying agricultural products from the US.
• Indices swung between gains and losses overnight and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.19% and up 0.15% respectively.
• European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.
• The WTI future is trading at $60.67 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD spiked to 1.1274 in Asia session after knocking lower following the warmer US CPI outcome. Looking ahead, the Dollar is likely to remain in sell-the-rally mode ahead of the July FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. EURUSD support is now at the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1240, with resistance at 1.1287-95, the July 5 and July 4 highs.
• USDCAD drifted lower to 1.3023 area as WTI future is rading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Next Support stands at 1.2970-1.2990.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2019.



Trade warring and slowing global growth have set the scene for a possible earnings recession, which could catalyze a risk-off phase in global markets. Therefore next week’s inflation data out of some of the major economies, Australia’s employment report and China’s 2Q19 GDP report could be the highlights in the coming week. Another focus is the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings season, which will get into gear next week with “show and tells” from the banking sector.
Monday – 15 July 2019
 

• China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.2% y/y pace in Q2, from the 6.4% y/y growth rate in Q1. The economy has grown at a 6.2% pace so far in 2019, while it was at a 6.6% pace for all of 2018, leaving the slowest growth rate since the 3.9% clip in 1990. It grew 6.8% in 2017.
• Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% y/y in Q2, edging higher than the 1.5% observed in Q1.

Tuesday – 16 July 2019
 

• Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA has already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.
• Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.
• ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.
• Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Wednesday – 17 July 2019
 

• Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.
• Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Thursday – 18 July 2019
 

• Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the employment is anticipated at 10K from 42.3K in May.

Friday – 19 July 2019
 

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The main US consumer confidence index is expected to ease to 93.0 in March, compared to 93.8 in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2019.



FX News Today

• Treasury yields steadied during the Asian session, with bonds erasing overnight gains and the 10-year yield now up 0.3 bp at 2.092%. JGB yields also backed up from lows and are down -0.1 bp at -0.129%, after returning from holiday, while yields declined in Australia and New Zealand after the minutes of the last RBA meeting showed the bank remains ready to adjust policy if needed.
• Stock markets meanwhile struggled in very light volumes as markets hold back ahead of key US data and earnings reports this week.
• On trade talks US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he and Trade-Representative Lighthizer may travel to Beijing if talks by phone this week are productive.
• The WTI future is trading below $60 per barrel and U.S. futures are posting marginal gains.
• In Europe, the GER30 future is currently slightly higher as are US futures, which UK100 futures are in the red, amid ongoing Brexit jitters as Boris Johnson, poised to succeed as PM next week, puts no-deal options firmly back on the table.
• Last week’s round of Brexit negotiators was reportedly one of the most difficult encounters of the last 3 years.
• Meanwhile JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Taiwan Semiconductor are among the companies reporting results this weeks.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD has been held between its 20-day Moving Average of 1.1295 and its 50-day Moving Average at 1.1242 since Friday. A 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the end of the month has been priced into EURUSD, and focus now may shift to the ECB, where further stimulus could be in the cards at its next meeting on July 25, keeping EURUSD capped for the time being.
• USDJPY broke earlier today its 20-day Moving Average at 107.95, after printing 8-session high from 107.80 during the overnight Asian session. The mixed risk backdrop has limited the pairing’s gains since last week, as Wall Street trades on either side of flat, and Treasury yields remain pressured. The July 5 low of 107.76 remains a floor for the asset, while next Resistance stands at 108.20 and 108.50

Main Macro Events Today

• Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.
• ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.
• Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 17th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2019.



FX News Today

• Stronger than expected US retail sales data put some pressure on bond markets.
• However, Equities turned lower as trade uncertainty returns.
• After the Chicago Fed President Evans flagged two rate cuts this year and US President Trump threatened to put another USD 325 bln of tariffs on Chinese goods, Stock markets were nervous and risk aversion lingered.
• US stock futures are posting fractional gains and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.05% and -0.27% respectively.
• Released overnight, a -17.3% decline in Singapore non-oil exports highlighted the damaging impact of global trade tensions.
• WTI crude dives near 3%, after Pompeo indicated that Iran is willing to negotiate on missiles. Oil prices are now trading at USD 57.69 per barrel, on yesterday’s indications that US-Iran tensions could be easing.
• Germany’s Von der Leyen confirmed as new EU Commission President. Von der Leyen will succeed Juncker and IMF head Lagarde today is tendering her resignation as her nomination for Draghi’s post looks more certain
• Bunds rallied from the off today and European stock futures are in the red after a mixed session in Asia, despite the prospect of additional easing measures.
• Bank of America and Netflix are due to report results today.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• USOIL: WTI crude has fallen 3% on the session following comments from US Secretary of State Pompeo in a cabinet meeting, who said for the first time, Iran is prepared to negotiate on its missile program. This news may signal a shift of policy in Iran, perhaps set to lower geopolitical tensions in the Mideast. The WTI contract has fallen from earlier highs just over $60.00 to $57.06 lows. Support now holds at $57.30 and $56.30. Resistance is set at $58.07 and $58.75.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.
• Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2019.



FX News Today

• Bonds were supported by ongoing trade concerns, with the tensions between Japan and South Korea adding to the lingering concerns about US-Sino relations.
• A WSJ report suggested that trade negotiations between the US and China are at a “standstill.” This was followed by fresh evidence of the impact that trade tensions have been having, with Japanese trade data revealing a worse-than-expected 6.7% y/y contraction in exports, which have shrank for seven months straight now.
• South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and said it has room to act again.
• The Fed’s Beige Book still said economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace”, but globally central banks are clearly preparing for a marked slowdown as trade tensions bite.
• Concerns about a weak earnings season are putting pressure on stock markets.
• The USA100 futures dipped -0.6% so far after Netflix Inc posted a surprise loss of US customers.
• The GER30 future is underperforming as well amid a broad based decline in European and US stock futures after a weak session in Asia overnight.
• The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $56.70 per barrel.
• Fears of a no deal Brexit scenario also continue to cloud over the outlook while the ECB is expected to at least introduce an official easing bias next week, before cutting rates in September.
• ECB’s Villeroy highlighted this morning that central banks can’t perform miracles and need help from politicians and fiscal policies.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD recovered slightly from 7-session lows of 1.1200, peaking at 1.1243. Brexit concerns have weighed on economic activity on the continent as well as the UK, and could limit Euro gains going forward. Risk for the EUR comes from the ECB as well, with a shift to an explicit easing bias expected by many at next week’s meeting, or at subsequent meetings. EURUSD support comes at 1.1218-1.1229, with Resistance at the 61.8% Fib. level from 2-week peak, at 1.1250-1.1252.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 08:30) – A -0.3%m/m contraction is expected for June retail sales, following 0.5% May loss. In the y/y comparison, sales are anticipated at 2.6% from 2.3%.
• Initial jobless claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The initial jobless claims for the week of July 13 are estimated to fall to 204k, after falling to 209k in the week of July 6. Claims should average 215k in July, down from 222k in June and a 217k in May.
• Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to rebound to 6.0 in July from -8.6 in June, which marked a 33-month low for the series. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2019.



No deal Brexit risks will continue to unsettle markets next week as the two candidates hardened their rhetoric in end stages of the party elections. The ECB however will stand out as the event of the week,with Brexit uncertainty an important part of the overall outlook. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Tuesday – 23 July 2019
 

• The announcement of the next Prime Minister of the UK – Event of the week – Original Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson remains the front runner in the race and is widely expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister next Tuesday.
• Housing Data (USD, GMT 14:00) – A steady rate is anticipated for existing home sales in June at the firm 5.340 mln pace seen in May. The median sales price is estimated to ease to $275,000, for a y/y gain of 0.4%, down from 4.8% in May. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of 5.207 mln. In Q2, a better 5.297 mln pace is expected.

Wednesday – 24 July 2019
 

• Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – Preliminary Composite PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to fall in July, to 51.8 and 52.5 respectively, while the Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted at 48.0 and 45.4 respectively.
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to decline in July, to 50.4 from 50.6 and 51.0 from 51.5 respectively.

Thursday – 25 July 2019
 

• German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip to 96.7, after it held steady the past 2 months around the 97 barrier.
• Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45) –The ECB is meeting on July 25, – shortly after the confirmation of the new PM in London and ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again at the end of the month. On balance, markets see more merit in keeping official rates unchanged next week, while moving to an official easing bias and promising that rates will be at “current or lower” levels well into next year.
• ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 12:30) -The July meeting will clearly be a “live” one with doves and hawks battling it out over when to deliver the now widely expected easing measures. It is expected that the majority will see more merit in keeping policy settings unchanged, but change the guidance to introduce a clear easing bias.
• Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.0% in June, after a -1.3% figure in May. Transportation orders should rise 2.7%. Boeing orders rose to only 9 from just zero in May, with weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies should ease to 11.1 mln from an 11.3 mln pace in May. Durable shipments are expected to rise 0.5%, and inventories should rise 0.6%. The I/S ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.67 since April.

Friday – 26 July 2019
 

• Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow 1.8% in Q2, with a sturdy 2.4% growth rate for final sales thanks to solid growth rates of 3.9% for personal consumption and 4.3% for government purchases, alongside a big $27 bln unwind of the Q1 inventory pop.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2019.



FX News Today

• Global stock markets have been buoyant.
• Treasuries held modest gains to start the week, unwinding Friday’s selloff on the NY Fed’s walk back, albeit in a low volume trade.
• Japanese bourses outperformed in thin trade, while markets in Hong Kong and mainland China struggled to make headway and China’s new Star market of tech companies fell back after the rally on the first day of trading yesterday.
• Stock futures in the US and Europe are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the GER30 future as markets hopes for at least a dovish signal from the ECB on Thursday, with some lingering hope that the central bank will already move this week.
• A meeting between tech executives and White House officials yesterday sparked hopes of progress on Huawei, which would help to clear hurdles for fresh face to face trade talks between China and the US.
• RBNZ has reportedly been taking a fresh look into unconventional measures and hopes of easing from not just the Fed, but also the ECB helped to underpin sentiment as did an announcement from US President Trump of a bipartisan deal to suspend the borrowing limit and boost government spending levels for two years.
• Oil prices remain underpinned by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, leaving the WTI future trading at USD 56.31 per barrel.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD – It descended to a 1-month low at 1.1189, driven by bearish bias for a third consecutive day. Recent tops have been limited to the 1.1280 region, and ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, the pairing remains in sell-the-rally mode. The Bank is expected to shift to an explicit easing bias this week, with a rate cut likely coming at the September meeting. While a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is expected at the end of July, it has been priced into the Dollar for now. Further dovish noises from the ECB should see the Euro give way on Thursday, with the first major downside target at the June low, of 1.1159.
• NZDUSD – The biggest mover out of the main pairings has been NZDUSD, which fell over 0.3% in hitting a six-day low at 0.6729. This came with the RBNZ reportedly taking a fresh look into unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures. Next Support holds at 200-day SMA at 0.6718, while Resistance is set at Wednesday’s high, at 0.6745.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• The announcement of the next Prime Minister of the UK – Event of the week – Original Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson remains the front runner in the race and is widely expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister today.
• Housing Data (USD, GMT 14:00) – A steady rate is anticipated for existing home sales in June at the firm 5.340 mln pace seen in May. The median sales price is estimated to ease to $275,000, for a y/y gain of 0.4%, down from 4.8% in May. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of 5.207 mln. In Q2, a better 5.297 mln pace is expected.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 24th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2019.



FX News Today

• In Europe, Core EGB yields declined in the PM session with Gilts outperforming Bunds after the crowning of Boris Johnson as the new leader of the UK Conservative Party.
• Johnson is now set to be confirmed as Prime Minister tomorrow and investors are raising their no-deal Brexit bets, which is also fuelling easing expectations.
• A weaker than expected UK CBI industrial confidence survey as well as dovish leaning comments from BoE’s Saunders underpinned the rebound in Gilts and saw the UK 10-year rate falling back -1.6 bp to 0.688%.
• The ECB’s latest credit conditions survey also played into the hands of the doves at the council as it showed that credit conditions tightened in the second quarter.
• Stock markets meanwhile rallied on the combination of positive earnings reports and hopes of further central bank support.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• USDJPY recovered to 1-week highs of 108.28 overnight, gaining ground from Asian lows of 107.83 but it gave back some gains today by turning back to low 108 area into London open. Overall, risk-on conditions have supported, with USDJPY advances coming on the back of rallying equities. Last week’s 108.37 is a key next resistance level, and above there, market participants could turn their attention to the 50-day MA, which currently sits at 108.50. On the flipside, on the break of 20-day MA at 108.07, next Support comes at 107.79 (June 15 low).
• USDCAD rallied to July highs, topping at 1.3162 in early North American trade, and up from post-Monday close lows of 1.3111. General USD strength, coming as the market scales back its Fed easing expectations, has provided support to the pair. In addition, a lack of upside in WTI crude, despite geopolitical concerns, largely with Iran, has weighed on the CAD as well. The June 26 high of 1.3196 is the next resistance level if the asset moves above 1.3160, though buy-stops are expected over the 1.3200 level. On the flipside Support is set at 1.3120-1.3125 area. A move below the latter could open the doors below 1.3100 area.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – Preliminary Composite PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to fall in July, to 51.8 and 52.5 respectively, while the Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted at 48.0 and 45.4 respectively.
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to decline in July, to 50.4 from 50.6 and 51.0 from 51.5 respectively.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 25th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th July 2019.



FX News Today

• Treasury yields came down from overnight highs and fell back to 2.04%, unchanged from yesterday’s close.
• Aussie and Australia’s benchmark bond yields hit record lows after RBA Governor Lowe signalled that he is prepared to cut rates again if needed and Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher.
• Earnings reports and expectations for further central bank support have helped to underpin equity markets this week, but while markets are looking for a clear easing signal if not a cut from the ECB today, Asian equity markets moved only cautiously higher.
• Worse than expected losses from Tesla and reports that North Korea resumed missile launches highlighted not only that geopolitical risks remain high, but also that overall valuations are already lofty.
• US futures are mixed, with NASDAQ futures underperforming and down -0.2%.
• USOIL spiked to $57.60 on another 10 million barrel draw-down but sank to $56 on weak global economic outlook on the back of the manufacturing PMI data.
• Euro touched its lowest since May 31 following the weak Eurozone PMIs during the London morning session, printing 1.1127.
• Gold continues to track sideways with Support at 1,420 and Resistance at 1427.

Charts of the Day


Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD touched its lowest since May 31, following the weak Eurozone PMIs during the London morning session. Euro weakness has been a feature this week, in anticipation of ECB meeting, where a shift to an easing bias is universally anticipated. Given the weak PMIs, there is a chance the Bank may even cut rates modestly, which would likely weigh further on EURUSD. Next support comes at the June low, of 1.1159 and the 2019 low of 1.1107 seen on May 23.

Main Macro Events Today
 

• German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip to 96.7, after it held steady the past 2 months around the 97 barrier.
• Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45) –The ECB is meeting on July 25, – shortly after the confirmation of the new PM in London and ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again at the end of the month. On balance, markets see more merit in keeping official rates unchanged next week, while moving to an official easing bias and promising that rates will be at “current or lower” levels well into next year.
• ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The July meeting will clearly be a “live” one with doves and hawks battling it out over when to deliver the now widely expected easing measures. It is expected that the majority will see more merit in keeping policy settings unchanged, but change the guidance to introduce a clear easing bias.
• Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.0% in June, after a -1.3% figure in May. Transportation orders should rise 2.7%. Boeing orders rose to only 9 from just zero in May, with weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies should ease to 11.1 mln from an 11.3 mln pace in May. Durable shipments are expected to rise 0.5%, and inventories should rise 0.6%. The I/S ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.67 since April.

Support and Resistance levels
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th July 2019.

FX News Today

* Treasury yields slip along with core EGBs after BoJ and looking to 25 bp Fed cut and dovish stance.

* BoJ kept policy on hold but promised to act aggressively with additional easing measures if its policy goals are threatened.

* European stock futures are marginally higher, alongside gains in US futures after a largely positive session for stocks in Asia.

* US-Sino trade talks resume today.

* In Europe, a no-deal Brexit scenario is looking increasingly certain as the new PM in London steps up the hostile rhetoric and focuses on selling no-deal at home, while showing no interest in re-opening the lines of communication with Brussels.

* GBP losses accelerated on no-deal Brexit risk; hit major trend lows vs USD and others.

* The WTI future lifted to USD 57.20 per barrel.

* German GfK consumer confidence fell back to 9.7 in the advance August reading. With no improvement in manufacturing the improvements on the German labour market are running out of steam and ultimately that will also impact consumption going down the line.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY: The Yen has firmed moderately in the wake of the BoJ policy announcement. Market narratives have mostly taken the view that the central bank was a little less dovish than expected, especially with both the Fed and ECB heading to rate cuts.  USDJPY drifted to near 108.50 from a 3-week high that was seen ahead of the data, following disappointing industrial production figures out of Japan, at 108.94. EURJPY and other Yen crosses saw a similar fall-from-highs price action. The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying programme. The central bank signalled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020,” commenting that “the momentum for achieving 2% inflation is sustained, but lacks strength.” The forward guidance was pretty much unchanged from existing guidance, which seemed to cause a modicum of disappointment in forex markets, though JGB yields still dipped while the JPN225 closed with a 0.4% gain on the day. Overall, the balance of risks for USDJPY and EURJPY seem to the downside, with both the Fed and ECB having much more room to add monetary stimulus than in the case of the BoJ.

Main Macro Events Today

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to slip back to 1.3% y/y for July after it was  revised up to 1.5% y/y in June.

* Consumer confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to bounce to 128.0 in July from 121.5 in June, versus another 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 5th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th August 2019.

* Following the FOMC meeting last week, two interest rate decisions (RBA and RBNZ) are scheduled next week. An on-hold stance is expected from RBA and more easing by RBNZ. From an economic perspective, GDP releases are the highlights, while with the focus on geopolitical trade tensions, data releases are likely to be overlooked.

Monday – 05 August 2019

* Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK Services PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 50.2, a three-month low and drop from May’s 51.0 reading.The indicator effectively signals stagnation, with the sector only expanding fractionally, and at risk of tipping into recession; a consequence of both Brexit-related uncertainty and geopolitical trade tensions.

* Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.5 in July from 55.1 in June and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. The available July sentiment surveys have partly reversed the June downdraft in sentiment, though we’ve seen divergent swings for some measures.

Tuesday – 06 August 2019

* Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% (June and July saw the first back-to-back rate trimming since 2012). The latest data has strengthened the view that the RBA, after implementing back-to-back rate cuts, will be on hold for the foreseeable, albeit retaining a dovish policy stance.

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.268M, following the 7.32M in May.

Wednesday – 07 August 2019

* Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00-03:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to proceed with a second rate cut this year. The consensus presents a 25bp rate cut.

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve 2.6 points to 55.00 after the decline seen in June. The data is supportive of the steady policy story, as the economy returns to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”

Thursday – 08 August 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter from the 0.6% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker exports due to cooling global demand and trade tensions.

Friday – 09 August 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP for the second quarter could be seen declining due to the renewed rise in no-deal Brexit risks which negatively impacted data releases, and the slump in the June manufacturing PMI which highlights the extent of the deterioration in sentiment.  The preliminary release of UK Q2 GDP growth is expected at the 1.4% y/y figure from the 1.8%seen in the last quarter.

* Employment Change (CAD , GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in July, compared to the decline 2.2k in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. A possible lack in total jobs during July is unlikely to challenge the BoC’s steady-as-it-goes policy position.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th August 2019.

FX News Today

* Bond as well as stock markets were under pressure during the Asian session.

* Global equities in general, continued to get hammered by the escalation in trade tensions.

* Data was thin, but the disappointing ISM services report added marginally to the bearish tone in stocks.

* RBA left rates on hold amid a “reasonable” outlook for the global economy, but also highlighted downside risks from trade tensions.

* The US officially labelled China a “currency manipulator“.
The JPN225 are down 0.9%, the ASX slumped -2.4%, while the Hang Seng corrected -0.9%.

* With the US-Sino trade spat rapidly escalating investors are heading for cover amid fears that the U.S. will up the threatened additional tariffs to 25% from the 10% President Trump had mentioned so far.

* German manufacturing orders jumped 2.5% m/m in June, a much stronger than expected reading, that partly compensated for the -2.0% m/m decline in May.

* The front end WTI future is currently trading at $55.29 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD printed 2-week highs of 1.1249, up from lows of 1.1170 yesterday. The latest trade was escalations between the US and China, have ramped up Fed easing speculation, with a September 25 bp rate cut fully priced into the market. This has given the Dollar a hard time of late, resulting in the DXY dropping from over 2-year highs last week, to 2-week lows on Monday. The Euro is currently over its 20-day moving average at 1.1185 for the first time in nearly a month, and now has sights set on the 50-day MA at 1.1235 and 200-day MA at 1.1295.

* USOIL is down near 6% versus last week’s peak. The ramping up of the U.S. China trade war overnight, as China devalued its Yuan, and halted purchases of US agricultural goods weighed on oil prices, with traders focused on prospects for lower global growth, and oil demand destruction. Last Thursday’s six-week low of $53.59 remains the next support level, while Resistance is at Friday’s high and 10-day EMA at 56.00 .

* USDCAD pulled back from overnight highs of 1.3220, falling to 1.3202. Oil prices remain a driver of USDCAD direction, while concerns over slowing global growth could keep crude prices under pressure, resulting in a higher USDCAD.

Main Macro Events Today

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.268M, following the 7.32M in May.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th August 2019.

FX News Today

* RBNZ surprises markets with hefty 50 bps cut; official rate now at 1.00%.

* India’s RBI cut rates by 35 bps – more than expected; repo rate at 5.4%.

* Decisive action from central banks in New Zealand and India also fueled fresh speculation of deep cuts from the likes of Fed and ECB.

* New Zealand’s 10-year rate led a broad slide in yields across Asia.
The RBNZ surprised markets with a hefty 50 bp cut that left the official cash rate at a record low of 1.00% and will spark fresh speculation of deep cuts world-wide.

* The NZD dropped sharply as a result and AUD was also dragged lower as the 10-year rate dropped -8.3 bp, with traders expecting the RBA to follow.

* Still, pressure eased somewhat in stock markets, after China took steps to steady the Yuan yesterday.

* JPN225 is down -0.27%.

* US futures are in the red after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday and the WTI future is trading at just USD 53.66 per barrel.

* In Europe, German production numbers at the start of the session underpinned easing hopes. 

* German industrial production slumped -1.5% m/m in June, with the May reading revised down to just 0.1% m/m. 

* The German curve has already settled below zero and pressure on Draghi to not just cut rates but restart asset purchases is mounting.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

* NZDUSD: The New Zealand Dollar over 2% in hitting its lowest level against the US Dollar since January 2016, at 0.6377, and trading at near seven-year lows in the case against the Yen. This followed a more aggressive than expected 50 bp rate cut by the RBNZ to an all-time low 1.00%, which was pinned on flagging growth conditions as a consequence of simmering trade tensions and a global economic slowdown.

* AUDUSD fell in sympathy, with the RBA, after cutting rates in June and July, having signalled yesterday that more rate cuts could be in the pipeline. The pair smashed through the early January flash-crash low on route to printing a 10-year nadir at 0.6677. AUDJPY also dove into 10-year low territory.

* USDJPY: The Yen lifted against the Dollar and Euro, though remained below highs seen earlier in the week. USDJPY posted a low at 105.93, extending the retreat from yesterday’s 107.09 high.

* EURUSD continued to orbit the 1.1200 level. Sterling came back under pressure after a positional-driven rally earlier in the week. Cable nudged back under 1.2150 after failing to sustain gains above 1.2200, while EURGBP lifted back above 0.9200, drawing back in on the 24-month high at 0.9249.

Main Macro Events Today

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve 2.6 points to 55.00 after the decline seen in June. The data is supportive of the steady policy story, as the economy returns to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2019.

FX News Today

* Markets remained choppy Wednesday amid heightened fears over the bearish signals from the drop in rates.

* Better than expected China trade numbers, which showed a rebound in exports helped to underpin sentiment after a slightly higher than anticipated Yuan fixing.

* Fears about the impact of the escalating trade conflict eased somewhat, also helped by news that Japan will allow some exports of semiconductor manufacturing material to South Korea, which suggests easing tensions between the two countries.

* Wall Street losses were pared and the NASDAQ recovered into the green. US futures are up 0.4-0.7%.

* Investors remain jumpy and markets volatile, however, while the inversion of the yield curve looks worrying and highlights the rise in recession fears.

* Oil remains sharply weaker on growth fears and widening supply-demand dynamics. It is currently trading at $52.70.

* The official fixing of the onshore Yuan today was at a new 10-year plus low against the Dollar.

* RBNZ Governor Orr also repeated that negative rates are a possibility, which comes a day after the central bank caught widespread attention by implementing its first 50 bp easing since the immediate aftermath of 9/11. 

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

* YEN: The Yen has traded softer, concurrently with a tentative rebound in stock markets, which was seen on Wall Street into the close yesterday, and followed up with gains across Asia-Pacific bourses. USDJPY settled in the lower 106.00s, above the 7-month low seen yesterday at 105.49. AUDJPY, EURJPY and other Yen crosses also posted moderate gains as the Japanese currency saw some of its safe haven premium unwind. Better than expected China trade numbers and Japan and South Korea’s news helped buoy investor spirits, and while the official fixing of the onshore Yuan today was at a new 10-year plus low against the Dollar of 7.0039 (up from 6.9996 yesterday), a little firmer than markets had been anticipating. 

Main Macro Events Today

* Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:20) – Initial jobless claims for the week of August 3 are estimated to fall to 214k, after rising to 215k in the week of July 27. Claims should average a cycle-low 212k in July, as seen last September, versus 222k in June and 217k in May. Claims drifted higher into June from tight levels through May, with a spike higher with the advent of the auto retooling season, but with an ensuing drop into mid-July with seasonal factor payback.

* Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter from the 0.6% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker exports due to cooling global demand and trade tensions.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th August 2019.

* Following a week of aggressive global central bank easing, with the escalation of the US-China trade war that is looking to have turned into a currency war, markets might take a small breath in the week ahead. However, the markets expected to remain volatile as the week is packed of economic data releases. 

Tuesday – 13 August 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for July expected to remain at 1.1% y/y after falling from 1.3% y/y in July’s preliminary release.

* Average Earnings & ILO Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.8%, with average income falling 3.5% y/y in the three months to June in the ex-bonus figure,  and to 3.1% in the in-bonus figure from 3.4% y/y in July.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for August is projected at -22.3 from the -24.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to improved slightly at -3.1 from -20.3.

* Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US CPI is expected to rise a 0.2% headline in July with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective June readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.6%, steady from 1.6% in June, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from June. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early-Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that reversed course temporarily in May.

Wednesday – 14 August 2019

* Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have decreased at 5.8% y/y in July from 6.3% y/y last month. A weak reading is also expected in Retail Sales figure at 8.6% from 9.8%.

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00-09:00) – German Preliminary Q2 results are expected to have stood at 0.4% q/q. Eurozone prelim. Q2 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q and 1.1% y/y.

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK July CPI expected to meet once again the expectations at 2.0% y/y, which was unchanged from the May rate. Core inflation should remain to 1.8% y/y. The data fits BoE projections, and shows that perky wage inflation hasn’t translated into higher headline rates yet.

Thursday – 15 August 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5.2% in July, employment change is expected to have increased to 26.8K from 0.5K last month.

* Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -1.4%m/m in July following a 1.0% m/m contraction in June. In the y/y comparison, sales should rise 4.0% while the ex-fuel is projected at 2.7% y/y from 3.6% y/y.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% July retail sales headline is anticipated with a 0.5% increase for the ex-autos figure, following 0.4% June gains for both measures. Gasoline prices should provide a boost to retail activity given an estimated 1.7% gain for the CPI gasoline figure, though unit vehicle sales fell to a 16.8 mln pace in July from a 17.1 mln clip in June. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.9% rate in Q3, following the 4.3% Q2 clip.

* Philadelphia Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 9.0 from a 1-year high of 21.8 in July, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

Friday – 16 August 2019

* Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should rise to a 1.260 mln pace in July, after a dip to 1.253 mln in July. Permits are expected to improve to 1.270 mln in July, after falling to 1.232 mln in June. Overall, starts and permits should show a firm path into Q3, and the Q3 averages are expected of 1.263 mln for starts and 1.295 mln for permits.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.5, up from the final July sentiment at 98.4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 13th August 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2019.

FX News Today

* RISK OFF

* 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.8 bp at 1.637%, JGB yields fell back -1.4 bp to -0.341% after falling to the lowest level since 2016 during the course of the session.

* Risk Aversion continued to dominate during the Asian session and stock markets headed south after the S&P fell more than 1.5% on Monday.

* Bond markets remained supported as investors continue to bet on further central bank action with trade concerns, Brexit risks and political unrest in Hong Kong adding to the risk off backdrop. U.S. 30-year rates are nearing all time lows with Argentina default risks only boosting the flight to quality that is seeing a marked flattening of the curve.

* In Asia escalating political protests in Hong Kong remain in focus and Australia’s 10-year bond yield opened at a fresh all time low. China’s 10-year rate meanwhile fell below 3% for the first time since 2016 before steadying slightly above the 3% mark.

* GOLD breaches $1520.00 (highest since April 2103) and USOil meanwhile is trading at USD 54.81 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

* USD: The The dollar has traded moderately firmer against most of the other main currencies outside the case against the Australian dollar, which has modestly outperformed so far today. The yen softened, correcting some of the recent safe-haven driven gains, despite a tumble on Wall Street yesterday and across Asian equity bourses today, though the Japanese currency has lifted out of its lows into the London interbank open. There is plenty on the worry list, including disruptive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and a crash in Argentina’s peso following a poor performance of market-friendly Argentine President Macri in presidential primaries. Singapore also made a substantial cut to its GDP forecast for 2019 (to between 0% and 1%, down from 1.5%-2.5%), citing the deteriorating global conditions, with the Hong Kong situation, along with the U.S.-China and South Korea-Japan trade wars, and Brexit, all getting a mention. The U.S. yield curve is now at its lowest level since 2007, which is seen by many as portending recession, or at least a significant risk of recession. GS analysts also said that the U.S.-China trade war will have a bigger detrimental impact on the U.S. economy than it previously thought. A Reuters poll, meanwhile, found a new high in the probability being ascribed by analysts for there being a no-deal Brexit, which is now pegged at 35%, up from 30% in the previous survey. Amid all this, the PBoC set the yuan at a new near 11-year low against the dollar at the day’s midpoint fixing, at 7.0326, versus 7.0211 yesterday. Given the risk-on vibe, the yen looks likely to find fresh demand in London, with shorts of AUD-JPY and GBP-JPY likely

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings & ILO Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.8%, with average income falling 3.5% y/y in the three months to June in the ex-bonus figure,  and to 3.1% in the in-bonus figure from 3.4% y/y in July.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for August is projected at -22.3 from the -24.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to improved slightly at -3.1 from -20.3.

* Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US CPI is expected to rise a 0.2% headline in July with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective June readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.6%, steady from 1.6% in June, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from June. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early-Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that reversed course temporarily in May.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th August 2019.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

 
Trade worries remain and are expected to keep flip-flopping between risk-off and risk-back-on sentiment. Hopes for more central bank stimulus vies with fears that a number of major economies are simultaneously heading for recession, with a number of developing-world economies with high Dollar debt levels particularly exposed to the shifting financial cycle. Given these fears, further conciliatory remarks are likely from both China and the US with regard to their trade spat. Nevertheless, next week the economic calendar also focuses on the PMI releases globally.
Monday – 19 August 2019
 

• Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for July is expected to hold at 1.1%y/y in the final July reading from 1.3%y/y in June. Energy price inflation was clearly largely to blame and the core rate fell back to just 0.9%y/y from 1.1%y/y in the previous month. The core is anticipated to remain unchanged as well. With growth slowing down and the improvement on the labour market starting to fizzle out, chances are that inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB’s target range, thus adding to arguments for a comprehensive easing package in September.

Tuesday – 20 August 2019
 

• Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA left rates on hold in its last meeting, after back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, which put the cash rate at a record low of 1.00%, while Governor Lowe said that more easing measures could be needed. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.
• Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1.

Wednesday – 21 August 2019
 

• Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.
• FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Thursday – 22 August 2019
 

• Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2.
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMIs are likely to fall to 51.7 from 53.
• New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency.

Friday- 23 August 2019
 

• Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2
• Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.