Fort Financial Services Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 13.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position. The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound. The Chinas decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date. The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Hondas statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June. The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450. Pound (GBP) General overview Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%. Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month. The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted August 14, 2015 Author Share Posted August 14, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation. The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades. By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated. The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterdays trades closed with the pairs decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts forecasts. According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand. The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260. Pound (GBP) General overview The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%. The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median. Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market. We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K. The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y. Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000. The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter. There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M). Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high. Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670. Pound (GBP) General overview The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility. More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterdays trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970. Yen (JPY) General overview The course of the trade is determined by the world leading stock exchanges sentiments. The growth leaders were the Nasdaq high-tech index that indicates the investors risk appetite. In such circumstances, there appeared the demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The July building permits weak reports in the US was reflected in the national currency. According to the data, instead of the expected reduction to 1.232M the index decreased to 1.119M, the previous data is 1.337M. The pair USD/JPY has been consolidating around the support level of 124.30 for a long time. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 123.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 01.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates. As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound. There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 02.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure. The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September. On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates. It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar. The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears predominance in the market. The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades. Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand. Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050. Pound (GBP) General overview The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data. The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets. The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 04.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand. The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%. During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6. The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%. The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month. The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen. In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar. The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization. The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 7, 2015 Author Share Posted September 7, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 07.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000. The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pairs growth. The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data. Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets. All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand. The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975. Yen (JPY) General overview There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K. The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards. The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened. Franc (CHF) General overview The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected. The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 08.09.2015 Fundamental analysis There was volatile dynamics at the end of the last week. The main event was the US labor market data publication. This release results are always uneven. On the one hand, the Non-Farm index came out worse than the consensus forecast at the level of 173 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate more rapidly reduced as well as the average earnings increased. The dollar came under pressure in recent weeks as the China slowing growth pace prompted investors to temper the first Fed rate increase expectations. The dollar has grown against the commodity currencies that were contributed partially by the oil prices decline. At the beginning of the new week the euro has grown against the dollar; the pair EUR/USD has increased. Earlier the euro fell to the two-week low against the dollar after the European Central Bank pointed to the current program QE increase possibility and also lowered its growth and inflation forecast. The yen showed its decrease at the beginning of the trading week, the pair USD/JPY started the week with a growth, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The trades were determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US two-year bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations are confidently growing that will support the demand for the dollar. On the contrary, the stock market is showing a negative trend which in turn is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency. The price started the weak upward correction. The resistance level o 1.1150 was broken upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview There is the US and the UK credit spreads increase in the bond market which is a positive factor for the US currency. The commodity market also sends a negative signal to the British currency. The Brent crude oil bearish trend will put pressure on the pound, because the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the yesterdays trades. The price is correcting upwards. The pair broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5200. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview There was a holiday in the United States on Monday and the financial markets were closed on the occasion of Labor Day. Last week there was negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges where bearish sentiments prevailed. The moderate demand for the dollar was forecasted amid the US Treasury bond yields increase. The price has also started the weak correction. The pair broke the level of 119.20 upwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 118.40. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 117.80. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The trade volume was low during the Mondays trades amid USA holiday. They have not published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, traders did not hurry to trade. On Tuesday the volatility increased on the market. The euro showed mixed movements against the US dollar remaining in the narrow range with a growth amid the almost empty European calendar and the Labor Day celebration in the United States. The Germany and the euro zone statistics had a little impact. As it became known, the Germany industrial production rose up by 0.7 % in August, nearly offsetting the previous decline by 0.9 percent in June which was revised from -1.4 %. It has been the fastest growth till this year. However, it was slower than experts expected (one per cent). The pound has significantly grown against the dollar, updating the Friday maximum. Analysts believe that happened due to the US currency sales resumption amid the weak trades. The US dollar finished the trades with a growth against the yen having partially recovered amid the European and Japanese stock markets increase due to the risk appetite growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro area inflationary pressure has been practically absent from the year beginning and the further oil market sales will have deflationary impact on the economy. In addition, the US and Germany government bond yields are increasing that points out to the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The price continues the price correction. The price is trading above the level of 1.1150. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The US unemployment rate has fallen by 0.5% since the beginning of this year while the UK unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%. The Brent crude oil is below the psychological level of $ 50/barrel. Considering the negative fundamental background we expect new sales wave in the short term that will also support the US currency. Meanwhile the pound exchange rate fixated above the critical line 1.5200. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the level of 1.5300. the level of 1.5390 was tested. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The stock markets sales increased the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The second quarter Japanese gross domestic product fell to -0.3% which is higher than economists' expectations by -0.4%. The GDP declined by 1.2% on the annualized basis compared to the previous three months in the period from April to June and it was also higher than the forecast by -1.8%. The price is still correcting. The pair tested the support level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 10.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency has slightly strengthened after it lost its positions against its main competitors earlier - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.92. The US labor market mixed data failed to convince investors that the economy was strong enough to hike the interest rates at the September meeting. Some investors also believe that the labor market instability and the China economy uncertainty will force the Fed to wait until the end of the year to tighten the monetary policy. The pair EUR/USD decreased. Earlier the pair has strengthened amid the euro zone GDP second quarter positive report. Some analytics believe that the GDP increased by 0.4% is better than expected 0.1%. The GBP/USD pair has strengthened amid the Brent oil growth. The pound has substantially grown against the US currency amid the risk appetite recovery. The GBP/USD was also supported by the stock markets growth. Nevertheless, the pair closed the trades with a decrease. The pair USD/JPY finished the trades in the "green zone". Demand for the risky assets put pressure on the "safe haven" yen. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The demand for the risky assets" is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, the bond market is sending negative signals for bulls. The US and German 10-year government bond yields are increasing that reduces the European assets investments attractiveness and do not support the demand for the euro. The pairs corrective movement stopped. The pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.1150. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925. Pound (JPY) General overview The UK trade deficit increased more than expected in July that amounted to 11.08 billion pounds from 8.51 billion pounds the previous month. Experts expected that the trade deficit would increase to 9.30 billion pounds. The last month UK manufacturing production volume (m/m) has decreased contrary to expectations, reaching 0.8% compared with 0.2% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate by 0.2% for the last month. The pound rate stopped not so strong upward movement. After a short-term consolidation at the resistance level of 1.5390 the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the level of 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan and the US government bond yields show the moderate increase which plays into the bulls hands. If the risk appetite keeps growing the Japanese yen may show weakness as a funding currency. We cannot ignore the US two-year Treasury bonds growth which reflects expectations for the Fed interest rates. The price continues its upward correction. The bears broke through the resistance level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations After the resistance level of 121.60 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 122.40 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 11.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar lost the early earned positions. Meanwhile, traders turn their attention to the Fed monetary policy meeting which will be held on September 16-17. The dollar growth against the major currencies was caused by the expectations, concerning the Bank of China new monetary easing measures. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 6 thousand having fallen to 275 thousand. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. However, the pair increased by the end of the trades. The pair GBP/USD had decreased. The weak economic statistics was published: the industrial production fell in August while the trade deficit has grown. On Thursday traders drew their attention to the Bank of England meeting and its minutes. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. The pair USD/JPY decreased after the powerful growth in the Tokyo stock market. Then the pair showed a flat. The Japan Nikkei index showed the biggest session growth after the China Finance Ministry stated that it intended to implement fresh measures to stimulate the economic growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The "risk appetite" growth among investors put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Germany and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that supported the demand for the dollar. Now the other hand, investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the euro increased by the end of the trades. The euro is showing that now the movement strengthened. The euro grew and the resistance leve of 1.1260 was broken through upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1325. After breaking 1.1325 the buyers may go to 1.1410. Pound (GBP) General overview The main event of the day was the Bank of England monetary policy meeting results. The debt market is also sending a negative signal: the UK and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that reduces the British assets investments attractiveness. However, after the decrease the pound strengthened. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the level of 1.5460. The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview The world leading stock markets growth put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The United States published the jobless claims release. The data showed the decrease by 6 000. It is impossible to ignore the commodity market sales. The oil, gold, copper, platinum and other commodities quotations fell very much which is a positive factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost is denominated in US currency. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc (CHF) General overview The pair USD/CHF has fallen. The UK presented the initial jobless claims report: there was expected 275K while earlier it was expected 282K. The data came out at the forecasted median. Investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The American monetary regulator will announce its interest rates decision just in a week. The pair dollar/franc is again correcting. The support level of 0.9750 was broken through downwards. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims. The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics. The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards. The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the risky assets". The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through. The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590. Pound (GBP) General overview The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets. The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency. The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 15.09.2015 Fundamental analysis Last week the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German government bonds yields growth relative to their US counterparts. The European currency continued to strengthen in the pair with the US dollar as investors found no support in the American economic fundamental publication. However the pair decreased by the end of the trades. During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The oil prices decline has not allowed the British currency to take advantage from the US consumer confidence weak data. During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in the flat amid the quotations moderate decrease in the world leading stock markets. Nevertheless the trades closed with the pairs decrease. This week the US Federal Reserve meeting is in the center of our attention. There are concerns about the possible stock market collapse amid the rates increase. The reason for the rate increase can be the core inflation growth from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y which is published on Wednesday. The Fed officials have repeatedly stated that it is not necessary to wait for the exact target of 2.0% to raise interest rates. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The July Eurozone industrial production moderately positive data may support the European currency in the short term. The data came out better then forecasted 0,3%: in fact it showd 0,6%. Meanwhile, the bond market is sending bearish signals: the Germany and the US bond yields are again increasing which reduces the European assets investments attractiveness. The price continued its upward movement. There was a short-term resistance level of 1.1325 breakthrough. Then the pair fell under this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1410 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1530. Pound (GBP) General overview The Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize in the range of 48.00 -50.50. This factor has a negative impact on the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The UK government bond yields show a moderate growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts that supports the British currency. The pair is trading in a flat. After the resistance level of 1.5460 the price tested the support level of 1.5390. The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5550. After breaking 1.5550 the buyers may go to 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview The Friday BSI large manufacturing business conditions strong report indicates the manufacturing sector business activity growth which is a positive factor for the Japanese economy and may support the national currency in the short term. In addition, the US and the Japanese government bond yields are declining that reduces the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The price started a weak correction. The pair broke through th support level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 16.09.2015 Fundamental analysis There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role. The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase. The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%. The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound (GBP) General overview There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median. The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 17.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results. The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades. The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%. The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations. The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high. The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand. The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the black gold". The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years. The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Feds meeting results publication. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion. After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590. Pound (GBP) General overview The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors exit from the risky assets. The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 17.11.16 Fundamental and technical analysis Euro General overview The euro softened on the back of strong dollar and lack of drivers from the Eurozone. Moreover, investors keep pricing in the Fed possibility to hike rates in December. Current situation The EUR/USD failed to hold to gains and turned negative after the opening on Wednesday. The euro continued to grind lower and tested 1.0700 at the London open. The price touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages continued moving lower. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700. Technical indicators retained bearish signals. MACD remained in the negative area. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area. Trading recommendations We believe the euro will maintain its bearish momentum in the short-term. The 1.0700 level is likely to be broken soon and the level 1.0650 appears to be the next intraday support and probable bearish target. Pound General overview Mixed employment data in the UK weighed on the pound. Average Earnings including Bonus fell together with Claimant Count Change while Unemployment Rate grew. Current situation As for the technical outlook the pair held a bullish tone during the Asian and European hours on Wednesday. The pound was hovering above 1.2400 trying to extend its recovery. The level 1.2500 appeared to be a strong barrier on its way upwards. After testing the level prices rolled back and reached 1.2400 ahead of the NY session. The price kept struggling with the 200-EMA ahead of London opening. The line limited its further gains in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400. Technical indicators are neutral now. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels, favoring a move lower. Trading recommendations Failure to hold above 1.2500 risks a slide to 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the level 1.2300 will come back to the radar. Yen General overview The USD/JPY continued with gains due to risk-on sentiment. Nikkei 225 reached the highest since February supporting the safe heaven yen. The U.S. dollar is strong across the board amid renewed hopes that the Fed will hike the rate this year. Current situation The pair trades in an upward channel. The U.S. dollar was hovering near multi month highs against its Japanese counterpart on Wednesday. The dollar climbed higher and reached the mark 109.50 in the mid-European session. Traders failed to extend their gains, the price turned around and retreated back to 109.00. The USD/JPY pair traded well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages 50, 100 and 200 accelerated their growth. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00. The technical indicators retained bullish signals. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory. Trading recommendations The price seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 110.00. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 110.50 could be observed further. A break below 109.00 will ease the upward pressure. The USD/JPY may soften to 108.00 and lower to the mark 107.50. USD/CAD General overview The USD/CAD strengthened on Wednesday amid oil prices decline. Current situation The pair is in an ascending channel, trading around its lower boundary. A two day decline was stopped when prices met a barrier around 1.3400. Prices bounced from the oversold area and trended upwards during the course of the day. The US dollar broke the level 1.3470 in late European trades. After breaking the level the USD/CAD extended its gains heading towards 1.3540. The bullish spike faded after testing the 1.3500 mark. The USD/CAD pair came across a selling pressure and returned to opening prices. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their growth in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.3470, the support can be found at 1.3400. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area and headed north. Trading recommendations The pair is turning bullish now. A consolidation above 1.3470 will strengthen buyers' positions. Bulls may lead prices towards 1.3540. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices traded higher on Wednesday however its gains are limited due to renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates in December. Current situation A consolidation phase remained intact on Wednesday. Buyers managed to reverse just a minor part of their losses before the recovery action stalled around 1230 dollars per ounce. An attempt to reclaim the 1230 level failed during the European trades. The yellow metal rolled back immediately after the level test. According to the 1 hour chart the pair failed to break the 50-EMA. The moving appeared to be a solid barrier which rejected the yellow metal downwards. The moving averages pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce. The technical indicators headed lower within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The price came across fresh selling offers around 1230 dollars per ounce. A failed test of the barrier may renew the selling interest sending prices to 1210 through 1220. Brent General overview Oil prices hold onto gains despite the U.S. crude inventories increase. Current situation Oil prices retreated from 2 week high on Wednesday. The benchmark met a barrier around 47.50 where buyers lost strength and turned around. Traders pushed Brent futures down and tested 46.50 dollars per barrel in the mid-Europe trades. The ongoing weakening could be attributed to some profit taking from bull following two day rally. Brent oil prices bounced from the 100-EMA and moved lower. The price is sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The indicators bounced from oversold level. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved downwards. Trading recommendations Buyers are unable to climb above 47.50 for now. Bears took control over the market and drove prices lower. Should the Brent prices lose ground and advance below 46.50, the decline can extend in the short term to 45.50 first. The second sellers' target lies at 44.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European shares traded higher amid mining stocks strengthening alongside with Wire Card and Bouygues shares. Current situation The index traded in a wide range between 10700 and 10800 during the first part of the day. Sellers seemed to be getting more control as weak buyers failed to retake the 10800 mark. The index sharply moved below 10700 and tested 10600 post-European open. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving briefly slowed down the index decline. The moving averages presented modest bullish slopes. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and moved south. Trading recommendations The overall picture is bearish now. Firm break below 10700 handle would open the way to 10600 and further out to 10500. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street moved lower on Wednesday amid oil prices decrease. Current situation The market sentiment switched to a bearish one. The benchmark recovery lost legs just above 4770. The index turned around and softened right after piercing the level. NASDAQ now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 4740. A failure test of the 100-EMA caused a sell-off and the index weakening. The price is in-between the 100 and 50 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The lines act as a resistance and a support for the benchmark. The resistance is seen at 4770, the support is at 4740. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is moving downwards. Trading recommendations The further upmove is expected to face stiff barrier around the current resistance. The index is overbought and the move below 4740 shall ease the buying pressure. Sellers will try to drive prices to the level 4710. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 18.11.2016 Euro General overview The Eurozone CPI for October matched the estimates while CPI monthly reading fell short-of expectations. The dollar slightly softened but remained onto fresh highs. The dollar continued getting support from market expectations for a December Fed rate-hike and possible improvements in economic growth. Current situation The market sentiment was negative on Thursday. The EUR/USD remained in a descending channel, close to its lower boundary. The price was quite during the Asian trades around recent lows at 1.0700. The euro bounced from 1.0700 and moved higher in the European session. The upward momentum ran out of steam when approached the level 1.0750, as a result the common currency moved back. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 1 hour chart. The euro broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700. The technical indicators maintained bearish momentum within negative territory. The MACD and RSI indicators continued consolidating within oversold levels. Trading recommendations A failure to hold above 1.0700 risks a slide to 1.0650. At the same time a further strengthening will not be possible until the pair breaks above 1.0750. Pound General overview The pound strengthened on the back of better-than-expected Retail Sales. Current situation The British currency was range-bound-to lower during the Asian hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD strengthened ahead of the Europe opening. The price spiked and tested the upper limit of the range. However the pair rolled back when the advance lost upward momentum. Prices bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The upward trajectory was stopped by the 200-EMA. The moving averages are still neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area. Trading recommendations The pound needs fresh drivers to leave the current range. A break above 1.2500 will open the way towards 1.2550. A daily close below 1.2400 would risk 1.2350. Yen General overview The yen retreated from the daily highs after the BoJ’s decision to buy unlimited amount of JGBs. Current situation Fresh buying pressure around the U.S. dollar boosted USD/JPY to fresh highs. After refreshing highs at 109.76 prices rolled back and returned to the nearest support region. The pair was under pressure struggling hard with the 109.00 level to go lower on Thursday. The pair bounced from the support 109.00 and trended higher ahead of the NY opening. The price tested and bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA became a solid barrier which limited the dollar further weakness. All moving averages were pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels. Trading recommendations The overall outlook is neutral/bullish. A firm break below 109.00 handle would open the way towards 108.00. Nevertheless, we would be buying the pair until it stays above 109.00. AUD/USD General overview The Aussie edged lower on Thursday on the back of weaker jobs data. Current situation The AUD/USD slightly strengthened in the Asian session on Thursday. Prices were able to escalate to 0.7500 where a bid tone lost its legs. The price weakened and returned to opening prices in the mid-Asia. Sellers struggled with buyers to break the 0.7470 level during the European session. The AUD/USD pair finally broke the level ahead of the NY opening. After breaking 0.7470 the Aussie continued to lose its value. The pair remained well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their decline. The resistance is at 0.7470, the support can be found at 0.7435. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within oversold levels. Trading recommendations After a daily close below 0.7470 we could see the pair extending down to the 0.7435 region during the next days. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices gained on yesterday's trades when the dollar moved from the 14 years high. Besides, the markets took a breath awaiting for J.Yellen's testimony. Current situation Gold prices remained flat on Thursday. The trading range narrowed and prices traded between 1225 and 1230 dollars per ounce during the day. The yellow metal slightly grew from the lower limit of the range to its upper one. However its recovery stalled after testing the 1230 level. According to 1 hour chart the pair broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA slowed down the XAU/USD pair acting as a resistance. The 50-EMA is neutral in the mentioned timeframe while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slopes. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative levels. Trading recommendations A break above 1230 will suggest further extension towards 1240. Conversely, a strong breakdown and close below 1220 could send prices lower towards 1210 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices turned higher on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih's testimony that he was optimistic over OPEC preliminary oil freeze deal which was reached in September. Current situation Brent had a positive day on Thursday. Bulls maintained control extending their near-term upward trajectory. A fresh buying interest around 46.50 pushed the benchmark higher. Oil prices rallied and reached the level 47.50 ahead of the NY session. The benchmark started the day between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Brent futures were able to test the 100-EMA ahead of the New York session. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs kept moving lower. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI remained within overbought levels. Trading recommendations If Brent futures break 47.50 the level 48.50 may become an attractive target for bulls. DAX General overview European stocks traded higher focusing on Yellen's speech. The mining stocks added while the financial stocks were on the downside. South African Investec company jumped to 6-month high after its latest corporate earning report. Current situation The index gapped higher at the open on Thursday. Traders were unable to develop an upward trajectory which immediately faded after the gap. Prices turned lower and dropped to 10600 where they stayed before the North American session. The 50-EMA stopped the downward impetus rejecting prices upwards. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations The DAX index will remain in bulls’ hands while the benchmark holds above 10600. Only a clear break below the level will ease the current bid sentiment. In this scenario sellers will lead prices to 10500. A failure to break the current support level will suggest an upward continuation towards 10800. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened neutral awaiting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech. Current situation After refreshing monthly highs at 2184 the index rolled back. S&P500 softened to the mark 2170 which stopped its decline. The index remained onto fresh highs staying between 1270 and 1280 on Thursday. The 1 hour chart showed that the price stayed around the 50-EMA which limited its downside extension. The moving averages maintained bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2170. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory. Trading recommendations A strong break and close above 2180 could send prices higher towards 2190. However, the benchmark is overbought and we do not exclude a large correction towards 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 07.12.2016 Euro General overview Positive GDP in Eurozone together with Factory Orders in Germany supported the single currency on Tuesday. After Renzi's resignation a temporary government will probably work instead in Italy. A new Italian Government is likely to be elected in February. Current situation The EUR/USD switched its tone to negative on Tuesday. Buyers took a pause after an impressive rally on Monday and consolidated their gains. After posting a session high at 1.0785, the pair turned lower and erased some of its recent gains. EUR/USD broke 1.0750 and headed towards 1.0700 ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested 200 EMA and bounced downwards immediately after the test. The 200 and 100 EMAs pointed lower, while 50 EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. The MACD histogram moved lower which indicates buyers’ weakening. The RSI indicator left overvalued readings. Trading recommendations A break below 1.0750 suggests further weakness of the pair. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 1.0700 and 1.0650. Pound General overview Despite the empty macroeconomic calendar the pound maintained its bid tone on Tuesday. Current situation The pound extended its bullish momentum and refreshed two-month highs on Tuesday. Having broken 1.2700 the pair was able to grow to 1.2770 where the price stayed during the day. The GBP/USD pair hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. Moving averages all pointed higher. The resistance lies at 1.2800, the support comes in at 1.2700. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. We also noted MACD divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI stayed within overvalued levels. Trading recommendations If the pound retains its bid tone we suppose the pair will grow to 1.2800. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.2700. In this scenario sellers will drive prices to 1.2600. Yen General overview The pair was neutral on Tuesday amid a lack of any serious releases in Japan. The USA published some minor reports: Trade Balance and Factory Orders. Current situation Overall structure was firmly bullish on Tuesday. The USD/JPY remained in an ascending channel, trading close to its lower limit. The dollar wasn’t able to post fresh gains versus the yen but refused to give up. The pair extended its consolidation phase under fresh highs at 114.80 and spent the day around 114.00. The price tested and bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator stayed neutral. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards the 115.00 resistance area. A failure here will send this market to 113.00 and further out to 112.00. A move below 112.00 will ease the current buying pressure. AUD/USD General overview The Australian dollar weakened following the RBA decision to leave the rate unchanged. Moreover, the regulator pointed to a possible near-term economic slowdown in the country. Current situation After facing rejection near the 0.7500 mark, the pair came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reversed all of its gains recorded in the previous session. The AUD returned to 0.7450 region where it spent the European session. The price made a timid attempt to recover ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced upwards from the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, while the 50 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450. MACD entered the positive area. RSI remained within neutral territory. Trading recommendations The pair may extend its recovery if it stays above 0.7450. Traders may push prices higher towards 0.7500. The 0.7500 resistance area appeared to be a tough nut to crack, prices have bounced a number of times from it. A new failure here will reject the AUD/USD pair to 0.7450. If buyers succeed the Australian dollar will extend gains towards 0.7550. XAU/USD General overview Gold was down and stayed near 10-month low as the expectations for a possible Fed interest rate hike continued to weigh on the yellow metal. Current situation Gold prices maintained their neutral stance on Tuesday. Having bounced from 1160 the precious metal jumped to 1170. The pair stayed confined within a tight trading range between 1170-1175 dollars per ounce during the day. XAU/USD remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within neutral territory. Trading recommendations We would be selling the pair only if the price drops below 1170. In this scenario the potential target is at 1160 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices moved lower on profit taking after a strong last week rally. Traders focused their attention on how OPEC will implement its deal to cut output. Current situation Oil prices retreated from yearly highs amid some profit-taking. The price moved lower and broke 54.50 dollars per barrel post-Europe open. After breaking the level the benchmark extended its losses towards 53.50 which tested ahead of the NA opening. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought levels and moved downwards. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overvalued level and headed south. Trading recommendations If a gloomy trend retains Brent will break 53.50 in the upcoming sessions. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 52.50 and 51.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks opened flat experiencing pressure amid oil prices decline. Current situation The index gapped lower at the open on Tuesday. The price slightly weakened after the gap and posted the daily lowest point at 10661. DAX reversed its direction at the beginning of the European session. Prices strengthened above 10700 and set a daily high 10751. The 4 hours chart showed that the price is above the moving averages. All moving averages were neutral during the day. The resistance exists at 10800, the support stands at 10700. MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 10700, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 10600 and 10650. A move higher will keep buyers’ in the driver’s seat and will extend gains towards 10750. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday as energy stocks weighed on. NASDAQ got some support in early trades from technology shares growth. Current situation The index showed mixed trades on Tuesday. NASADAQ made slightly higher in the early trades trying to reclaim 4800. The upward impetus lost its strength around the level. Having faced a rejection here the index moved lower and returned to the opening price. The benchmark remained under pressure during the NY hours struggling hard to break 4770. The price tested 200 EMA but failed to break it in the 4 hours chart. The 200 and 50 EMAs pointed lower while the 100 EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 4800, the support comes in at 4770. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We suppose the NASDAQ index will turn lower. As the most probable scenario, we consider a break below 4770 and bearishness extension towards 4740 and 4710. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now