Guest forexpros Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 02, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. The analysts predict a future reading of 4.50%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke support specified in yesterday's report 1.3028, and came close to hitting the suggested target of 1.2962, but it stopped a few steps before it, then it bounced clearly. It is clear that the Euro is facing some difficulties ahead of and around 1.31: there is the well known resistance 1.3092, Friday's top 1.3105, and now we can also see that after the open, the price has bumped into 1.3086 a couple of times during the Asian session. If the price can go back to trade above 1.3086, reaching 1.32 (and above) will be only a matter of time! The targets in this case will be 1.3200 & the bottom we still remember 1.3266. On the other hand, short term 61.8% Fibonacci level has became the most important support for today, especially that it is just above the rising trend line from June 29th low on the hourly chart. In case we break this support which is at 1.3020, the price will drop & correct the whole move up from Tuesday's low 1.2731 to yesterday's top, which will ideally target the area between 1.2950 & 1.2874. It is worth mentioning that the latter is the most important support for the time being. Support: * 1.3020: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from Friday's low. * 1.2950: Jun 27th low. * 1.2874: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from Jul 21st low to Friday's high. Resistance: * 1.3086: Asian session high, tested twice. * 1.3200: Apr 23rd low. * 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom. --- USD/JPY Finally, we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, which indicates that the correction we have been monitoring for the past days is finally over, which makes it official: we are in a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday's low 85.93, which is closing on the important resistance 86.81 this morning, warns of a correction to what we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop from 88.10 to 85.93). Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or without, dropping far below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into a most probable scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce from Friday's low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will keep shooting higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the "ceiling" for the price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting support 86.25 instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's low, we find 85.60 & 84.81 to be the most attractive of which. Support: * 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low. * 85.60: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th. * 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years. Resistance: * 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. * 88.10: Jul 28th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 03, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in New-Zealand. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in New-Zealand and should be taken as positive for the NZD. The analysts predict a future reading of 6.20%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3086, and came very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped only 6 pips before it, then it spent the night in a tight range between 1.3183 & 1.3150. With this, the Euro jumped strongly, but this jump has not reached its target yet. Naturally, we expect more of the same today, and soaring above 1.32. But, before we get overexcited, we must wait for a break of the falling trend line from yesterday's top on intraday chart, which is running currently at 1.3174. If we do break this line, the Euro will start rising again, and we will target 1.3266 first, and may be at a later time 1.3325. On the other hand, short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3112 will be our support of the day. If broken, a correction will be initiated, and the price will start giving up yesterday's gains. This will target a test of a very noteworthy trend line at 1.3040. If this is also broken, the positive technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will target 1.2952. Support: * 1.3112: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low. * 1.3040: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and also Jul 28th high. * 1.2952: a well known previous support resistance, which includes several daily highs and lows, among those Jul 27th high, and Jul 15th low. Resistance: * 1.3174: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts. * 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom. * 1.3325: Apr 7th low. --- USD/JPY No change! Nothing of any technical importance took place yesterday, therefore, we still hold the same technical outlook we did yesterday. After we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, the correction we have been monitoring for the past days is finally over, and it is official: we are in a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday's low 85.93, which is closing on the important resistance 86.81 this morning, warns of a correction to what we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop from 88.10 to 85.93). Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or without, dropping far below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into a most probable scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce from Friday's low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will keep shooting higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the "ceiling" for the price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting support 86.25 instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's low, we find 85.52 & 84.81 to be the most attractive of which. Support: * 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low. * 85.52: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th. * 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years. Resistance: * 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. * 88.10: Jul 28th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 4, 2010 Share Posted August 4, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 04, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 455.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3174, and came very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped (for the second day in a row) only 6 pips before it, before retreating significantly to 1.3181. The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns of a possible correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a correction would be a violent one, with its size a little less than 200 pips, since its ideal target is at 1.3086. Therefore, we should keep eyes & mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans ready. What is requested from the Euro now is to break the resistance 1.3227 which it is trading almost 20 pips below. This resistance is the key to more fireworks, and is the key to 1.33. If broken, we will target 1.3311 first, and at a later time 1.3383 as well. On the other hand, correction possibilities remain weak as long as we are trading above 1.3153. But if broken, we will be already in a short term correction, which will ideally target the single most important support for now 1.3086. And if this one is also broken, we will drop to test Friday's low 1.2979. Support: * 1.3153: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low. * 1.3086: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level for the rise from Friday's low. The single most important support for the time being. * 1.2979Friday's low, and the launch point of this recent rising move. Resistance: * 1.3227: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts. * 1.3311: Mar 24th low. * 1.3383: Mar 31st low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen dropped in the down wave we have talked about, it broke the support specified in yesterday's report 86.25, and successfully reached the first suggested target 85.52. With this, the first target of the falling wave is met, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The resistance is at 86.02, and if broken, we will target the important 86.81, then 87.49. Support: * 85.31: Asian session low. * 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. Resistance: * 86.02: the falling trend line from 88.10 on the hourly chart. * 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. 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Guest forexpros Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 05, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 9.60%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke both the support and resistance specified in yesterday's report, without being able to reach the targets specified. However, the dollar managed to drag the Euro to 1.3130. And as we said yesterday's report: "The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns of a possible correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a correction would be a violent one, with its size a little less than 200 pips, since its ideal target is at 1.3086." And up until now, we have seen the price dropping from Tuesday's top almost 130 pips! Technically, what is really important is that we are approaching a very important trend line, and are about to test it: the trend line rising from June 29th low on hourly the chart, which is running very close to yesterday's low. Therefore, we should keep eyes & mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the single most important technical event for the rest of the week. This line is at 1.3130, and should not be broken in order to keep the technical outlook positive. But if broken, we will witness a strong drop to 1.3026 at least, and probably will be followed by a test of the important 1.2933 as well. On the other hand, short term resistance is at 1.3194, and it is the key for more gains. If we break it, we will target 1.3311 & 1.3383. Support: * 1.3130: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low & yesterday's low. The single most important support for the time being. * 1.3026: Jul 20th high. * 1.2933: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.2731. Resistance: * 1.3194: the falling trend line from Tuesday's high on intraday charts. * 1.3311: Mar 24th low. * 1.3383: Mar 31st low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen did not break the support specified in yesterday's report, not even with a single pip. It consolidated above it, and edged higher until it reached 86.43. We can classify that as a clear attempt to rebound, coming after the current falling wave (which we talked about several times) has reached its first suggested target at 85.52. Nevertheless, we see these attempts as weak and shallow. We believe the falling wave will continue to seek lower targets, after a limited correction, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.74, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The resistance is at 86.58, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the important 88.10. Support: * 85.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's bounce. * 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. Resistance: * 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend line which combines the lows of Jul 16th & 22nd. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. * 88.10: Jul 28th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 9, 2010 Share Posted August 9, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 09, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm Productivity The Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in the average productivity level of US workers when producing goods and services, excluding the farming sector. The Nonfarm Productivity is calculated by dividing the GDP by the number of hours worked. Growth in Nonfarm Productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy. A drop in Labor Productivity indicates inflation - since it's equivalent to a rise in wages. It can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%.- -- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday's report 1.3212, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3311, reaching the highest level in more the 3 month in the Dollar-aftermath which followed the coming out of the US monthly employment report. Technically, what is really important is that we came close on Friday to a very important trend line, and we are still around it: the trend line rising from June 29th low on hourly the chart, which is running at 1.3194. Therefore, we should keep eyes & mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the single most important technical to start the week with. As we said, this line is at 1.3194, and should not be broken in order to keep the technical outlook positive. But before we get ahead f ourselves, there is another important support at 1.3265, if broken we will target a test of the above mentioned line. And if it is also broken, we will witness a strong drop to 1.3118 at the very least. On the other hand, short term resistance is at 1.3306, and it is the key for more gains. If we break it, we will target 1.3383 & 1.3442. When approaching such an important trend line, the following move is usually massive, whether it is broken or it manages to reverse the direction. That is why we will focus our attention on this line, until it is broken to the downside, or the price shoots up very far from it! Support: * 1.3265: short term 38.2% Fibonacci. * 1.3194: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, the most important short term support. * 1.3118: Aug 5th low. Resistance: * 1.3306: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday's top. * 1.3383: Mar 31st low. * 1.3442: Feb 19th important low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Friday's report 85.74, and dropped to a new yearly low at 85, only 19 pips above the 15 year low we have seen in November 09! With this, the falling wave has successfully managed to reach yet another target, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This break will target 83.87 & at a later time 82.65. The resistance is at 85.89, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.58 & 87.49. Support: * 85.31: Aug 4th low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 85.89: the falling trend line from Jul 28th high on intraday charts. * 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend line which combines the lows of Jul 16th & 22nd. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 10, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of -42.50B. --- Euro Dollar In an obvious concern about the uptrend, yesterday's headline was "The whole short-term uptrend at stake", and so it happened. The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3265, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3195, and even came close to the second suggested target, stopping only a few steps before hitting it. Technically, what is really important is that we have, and without any room for doubt, broken a very important trend line: the ascending trend line from June 29th low on hourly the chart, at 1.3194. Therefore, the technical outlook has completely changes the minute this line was broken. The Euro is left vulnerable for severe losses, which we have seen almost 60 pips of which until the moment. But we highly doubt that this is it, and we strongly believe that this pair will continue moving south in the shadow of a technical outlook which changed radically yesterday. Short term support is at 1.3133, if broken, the price will drop to 1.3026, then to a very important medium term level at 1.2961. On the other hand the resistance is at 1.3233 and only with a break here that the dark outlook will be changed! If this happens, a strong jump to 1.3347 is to be expected, and may be later we will see 1.3442. Support: * 1.3133: Asian session low, which is only 3 pips above a well known support level. * 1.3026: Jul 20th high. * 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's & 3-month high. Resistance: * 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line. * 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top. * 1.3442: Feb 19th important low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in yesterday's report yesterday, but it tried to break the resistance 85.89 a few hours ago during the Asian session. With this, we see a continuation of the correction from Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for the downward wave we have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85. 78, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This will target 83.87. The resistance is at 86.43, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the important 88.10. Support: * 85.78: the bottom of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart. * 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 & a 15-year low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. Resistance: * 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. * 88.10: Jul 28th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 11, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex Trading to Start Winning Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction? Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your direction right and increase your win rate. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 465.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3133, and dropped as expected, only to stop at 1.3070, without reaching the suggested target. Then (which is a lot more important), the price jumped in the post-Fed chaos to 1.3226 (7 pips below our resistance), testing the previously broken trend line, accurately (please refer to the attached chart). If it a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend. Therefore, unless the price goes back up to trade above the broken trend line, we expect more downside activity. Short term support is at 1.3032, which we are trading just above at the moment. If broken, the price will drop targeting the important Fibonacci level 1.2961, and if broken 1.2875. On the other hand, resistance is at 1.3158, and if broken, this pair will contradict all what we have said, and will shoot up to 1.3255, and may be 1.3347. Support: * 1.3032: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's & 3-month high. * 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's & 3-month high. * 1.2875: Jul 26th low, a well known support/resistance area. Resistance: * 1.3158: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level. * 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line. * 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report at 85.78, and dropped to 85.16, approaching this year's low of 85.00 which we have seen on Friday. However, the price consolidated above 85, and corrected the drop up to 85.45. With this, we see a continuation of the correction from Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for the downward wave we have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.16, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This will target 83.87 & at a later time, we still believe in our 82.65 target. The resistance is at 85.81, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.43 & 87.49 Support: * 85.16: "post-Fed" low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 85.81: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level . * 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 12, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo When: Tue, Aug 17, 2010, 10:00 EST Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.20%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3032, and dropped as expected, reaching both suggested targets 1.2961 & 1.2875 with complete success, to move 400 pips away from last Friday's "Jobs-report-top". We have commented on the retest case which took place after the Fed's statement Tuesday evening by saying: "it is a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend. Therefore, unless the price goes back up to trade above the broken trend line, we expect more downside activity." Today, there is more to talk about technically; there is a complete 5-wave count for the rise from 1.1875, but does it mean that the uptrend is over? Also, there is not one but 2 channels on the daily chart. The first (shown in RED on the attached chart), combining the tops of the waves 1 & 3, which is already broken. The second channel (shown in BLACK on the attached chart) combines the tops of waves 3 & 5, and although the price tried to break it, it went back to trade inside it. The bottom of the second channel is at 1.2869, that is why this will be our support for today. If broken, the horror movie will go on for the Euro, and we will drop to 1.2775 & 1.2681. The resistance is at the Asian session high 1.2917, and if broken, a short term correction will target not less than 1.2981 & not more than 1.3074. Support: * 1.2869: the bottom of the rising channel on the daily chart. * 1.2775: first of the main Fibonacci retracement levels (the 38.2% level) for the whole rise from this year's low 1.1875 to last Friday's and 3-month high. * 1.2681: Jul 14th low. Resistance: * 1.2917: Asian session top. * 1.2981: short term 38.2% Fibonacci level. * 1.3047: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report at 85.16, and dropped to 84.70 which is a 15-year low not seen since June 1995! Later, it consolidated above 85, and corrected the drop up to short term Fibonacci 50% level at 85.46. With this, we have finally reached the main target of this falling wave, which we talked about for the last 2 weeks: a drop below 84.81 & a new 15-year low, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.70. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.28, and breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This will target 83.87 & at a later time, we still believe in our 82.65 target. The resistance is at 85.90, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.43 & 87.49 Support: * 85.28: important intraday level. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 85.90: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level . * 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart. * 87.49: Jul 29th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 17, 2010 Share Posted August 17, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 17, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo When: Today, Aug 17, 2010, 10:00 EST Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP. -- Euro Dollar As the new week started, The Euro consolidated just below Friday's low, reaching 1.2733 before rebounding fast to 1.2869. Such a rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately yesterday, is at 1.2759. But before we think about it, there is another support worth mentioning which is 1.2822. If this level is broken, we will be already on the way to test the important trend line at 1.2759 as a first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping hard to 1.2660. On the other hand, yesterday's trading showed that resistance is at 1.2872. Only with a break here will the Euro be able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 & 1.3033. Support: * 1.2822: the rising trend line from yesterday's bottom on the intraday charts. * 1.2759: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart. * 1.2660: Jul 6th high. Resistance: * 1.2872: previous well known resistance. * 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. * 1.3033: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade below the support 85.00, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see 82.65 as well. Support: * 85.00: Aug 6th low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and Aug 10th top. * 87.00: Jul 7th low. * 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 17, 2010 Share Posted August 17, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 17, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo When: Today, Aug 17, 2010, 10:00 EST Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP. -- Euro Dollar As the new week started, The Euro consolidated just below Friday's low, reaching 1.2733 before rebounding fast to 1.2869. Such a rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately yesterday, is at 1.2759. But before we think about it, there is another support worth mentioning which is 1.2822. If this level is broken, we will be already on the way to test the important trend line at 1.2759 as a first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping hard to 1.2660. On the other hand, yesterday's trading showed that resistance is at 1.2872. Only with a break here will the Euro be able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 & 1.3033. Support: * 1.2822: the rising trend line from yesterday's bottom on the intraday charts. * 1.2759: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart. * 1.2660: Jul 6th high. Resistance: * 1.2872: previous well known resistance. * 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. * 1.3033: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade below the support 85.00, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see 82.65 as well. Support: * 85.00: Aug 6th low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and Aug 10th top. * 87.00: Jul 7th low. * 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 19, 2010 Share Posted August 19, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 19, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it. Support and resistance levels Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov When: Mon, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon. In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in. The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at Deltastock AD. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Core CPI The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro's bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after the weekly open at 1.2733, halted yesterday at 1.2920. Such a rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping, and now reaching, another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately on Monday, is running now at 1.2793, and it was touched and slightly surpassed during the Asian session, with the price bottoming at 1.2781. If this level is broken, we will be already on the way to break this week's low 1.2733 as we target 1.2660 first, then 1.2604. On the other hand, resistance is at 1.2867. Only with a break here will the Euro be able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2991& 1.3057. Support: * 1.2793: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart. * 1.2660: Jul 6th high. * 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: * 1.2867: important intraday level. * 1.2991: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. * 1.3057: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Boredom is back! Boredom is here again! As we have seen in previous periods this year, the Dollar/Yen is back to trading in very tight ranges, it did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report. It approached 85 but failed to make a break, it also stayed the whole time below the resistance 86.21. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 86.06. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.06 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade below the support 85.35, we will target 84.70 first, and there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85. Support: * 85.35: the rising trend line from this week's low on the hourly chart. * 84.70: This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995.. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. Resistance: * 86.06: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and Aug 10th top. * 87.00: Jul 7th low. * 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 23, 2010 Share Posted August 23, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 23, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it. Support and resistance levels Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov When: Today, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon. In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in. The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at Deltastock AD. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales The Existing Home Sales measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 4.75M. --- Euro Dollar As expected, the Euro landed hard after breaking the support we specified in Friday's report 1.2791, dropping more than 125 pips, and stopping only 3 pips before meeting our target @ 1.2660. With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. But, until this moment, we have not reached but only the first Fibonacci retracement level for the 5-wave move at 1.2775. Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop, we highly doubt that it has shown all its cards. We believe this drop is capable of reaching Fibonacci 50% at least, or even go lower than that. But, what increases the risk in these areas, is that after such a huge move, the Euro is subject to a correction at any time, and from any level. Short term support is at the Asian session low 1.2688. A break here would be a confirmation that we are heading to Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, and at a later time 1.2522. On the Other hand, resistance is at 1.2791, this pair cannot continue achieving gains unless we break the resistance 1.2791. In case we get this break, we will be heading to 1.2919 & 1.2998. Support: * 1.2688: Asian session low. * 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. * 1.2552: Jul 13th low. Resistance: * 1.2791: the falling trend line from Aug 6th high on the intraday chart. * 1.2919: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. * 1.2998: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in Friday's report. It traded in a very dull range of almost 55 pips, and we are still waiting for a break bringing some excitement to this pair. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.80. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.80 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by an important intraday support at 85.18. If broken, we will target 84.70 first, and there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.87, except for the BoJ. Support: * 85.18: important intraday level. * 84.70: This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995.. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. Resistance: * 85.80: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart. * 87.00: Jul 7th low. * 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 24, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How Measuring "Currency Strength" can Reveal the True Sentiment of the Market Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 2 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to rank currencies individually from strongest to weakest and pick currency pairs where money is flowing most directly to ride trends that are most likely to be profitable. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends. Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.50%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro dropped after breaking the support we specified in yesterday's report 1.2680, dropping almost 70 pips, and stopping only a few steps before meeting our target at 1.2604 (the low at the moment of preparing this report is 1.2617). With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. But, until this moment, we have not reached but only the first Fibonacci retracement level for the 5-wave move at 1.2775. Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop, we highly doubt that it has shown all its cards. We believe this drop is capable of reaching Fibonacci 50% at least, or even go lower than that. But, what increases the risk in these areas, is that after such a huge move, the Euro is subject to a correction at any time, and from any level. Short term support is not at the important Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, but rather at 1.2630. If broken, we will drop to the exciting 1.2550, then the all important 1.2432. On the Other hand, resistance is at 1.2750, this pair cannot go on achieving the kind of gains we have seen after hitting Friday's low, unless we break the resistance 1.2750. In case we get this break, we will be heading to 1.2829 & 1.2891. Support: * 1.2630: the rising trend line from Asian session low on intraday charts. * 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. * 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: * 1.2750: the falling trend line from Aug 6th high on the intraday chart. * 1.2829: Aug 12th low. * 1.2891: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.. --- USD/JPY It seems like speculators are insisting on pushing the Japanese government to the limit! Although the Dollar/Yen traded in a very dull range of just 49 pips yesterday, it was pushed by speculators below the 85 landmark again. Against the Euro, the Yen hit a 9 year high for the Yen, 9 year low for the pair at 107.19. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.66. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.66 we will shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by the Asian session low at 84.84. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.87, except for the BoJ. And if the "Japs" keep quiet, we could see 82.65. Support: * 84.84: Asian session low. * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86, compared to the wave which started at 88.10. * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: * 85.66: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart. * 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. * 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 25, 2010 Share Posted August 25, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 25, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How Measuring "Currency Strength" can Reveal the True Sentiment of the Market Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 2 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to rank currencies individually from strongest to weakest and pick currency pairs where money is flowing most directly to ride trends that are most likely to be profitable. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support we specified in yesterday’s report 1.2630, dropping modestly to 1.2586, and stopping clearly before meeting our target at 1.2550. With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. And as we reach Fibonacci 50% for this massive move at 1.2604, we should not neglect the possibility that the correction might me over after reaching such an important target. Short term support is at 1.2627, and we believe a break here will indicate that the drop is far from over, and that the Euro will sink below yesterday’s low. In this case the suggested targets will be the same as yesterday: 1.2550 first, then the all important 1.2432. On the other hand, yesterday’s trading proved the importance of Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2990. This resistance is at 1.2714, and will be our resistance of the day. If broken, the Euro will jump to other important Fibonacci levels at 1.2792 & 1.2871. Support: • 1.2627: Asian session low. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. • 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: • 1.2714: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Finally, the Dollar/Yen dropped in the fashion we have been waiting for, and with the strength that we missed! The price broke yesterday’s report, and dived to a new 15-year low to successfully reach our suggested target at 83.87. In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, which we expected, from the very beginning, that it will dive below 84.81. Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.45. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.45 we will shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by 83.92. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 82.65, except for the BoJ. And if the “Japs” keep quiet, we could see 79.75 later, may be next month. Support: • 83.92: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterday’s low, and 15-year low 83.58. • 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. • 79.75: this pair’s historical low. Resistance: • 85.45: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. • 87.70: June 26th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 26, 2010 Share Posted August 26, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 26, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How Measuring "Currency Strength" can Reveal the True Sentiment of the Market Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 2 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to rank currencies individually from strongest to weakest and pick currency pairs where money is flowing most directly to ride trends that are most likely to be profitable. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro traded violently yesterday, breaking both the support & resistance we specified in yesterday’s report without reaching any of the targets in both cases. These “nervous” moves are definitely a cause of frustration for us, we hope for an end of such price activity soon, since they mean nothing technically. Looking at the daily chart, we can see signs of a reversal, on top of which is the (Inverted Hammer) pattern, which appears twice. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. And as we reach Fibonacci 50% for this massive move at 1.2604, we should not neglect the possibility that the correction might me over after reaching such an important target. And with the inverted hammer patter, the possibilities that the drop from 1.3332 is over, have became higher. Short term support is at 1.2667, and we believe a break here will indicate that the drop is far from over, and that the Euro will sink below Tuesday’s low. In this case the suggested targets will be the same as yesterday: 1.2550 first, then the all important 1.2432. On the other hand, yesterday’s trading proved the importance 1.2724, and this will be our resistance of the day. If broken, the Euro will jump to important Fibonacci levels at 1.2871 & 1.2959. Support: • 1.2667: the rising trend line from Tuesday’ low on the hourly chart. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. • 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: • 1.2724: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. • 1.2959: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY The Dollar jumped more than 120 pips from its 15-year low which it hit on Tuesday at 83.58, reflecting a “fear” of what the BoJ might do! In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, which we expected, from the very beginning, that it will dive below 84.81. Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.28. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.28 we will shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by 84.07. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 82.65, except for the BoJ. And if the “Japs” keep quiet, we could see 79.75 later, may be next month. Support: • 84.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from Tuesday’s low, and 15-year low 83.58. • 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. • 79.75: this pair’s historical low. Resistance: • 85.28: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. • 87.70: June 26th top. --- GBPUSD At an early hour this morning, the Pound broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5522, breaking with it the falling trend line from this year’s high. Earlier, the pair broke the rising beautiful trend line from June 8th bottom, breaking with it the short term rising trend. Today’s jump has brought things back to complete chaos, since it was a “move-up” after breaking a 2.5 month old rising trend line! This may indicate that the Pound is on the way to retest that line at the very important 1.5757. Short term resistance is at 1.5600, if broken, the price will start rising with the objective of testing a very important level: 1.5757. If this resistance is broken, the short term uptrend & medium term uptrend will be revived, with a first target at 1.5860. On the other hand, support is at 1.5542, and breaking it would give the Dollar a chance to make the Pound pay back the losses of the Asian session. Targets will be 1.5461 & 1.5320. Support: • 1.5542: important intraday level. • 1.5461: Aug 20th low. • 1.5320: Fibonacci 38.2% for the massive move up from 1.4227 to 1.5996. Resistance: • 1.5600: the falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5757: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Aug 6th major top. • 1.5860: a very exciting resistance appearing on the hourly chart. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 30, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Trading the Harmonic Patterns LIVE Expert: Chriss Hall When: Thu, Aug 30, 2010, 08:00 ET Chris will also be taking a live look at the markets where he will identify trades with you, help you setup your plan surrounding the harmonic patterns and execute any trades that look advantageous. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro reached a new weekly high on Friday at 1.2777, before retreating around 50 pips by the closing time. With this, the Euro continues to rise slowly, without being able to create a reaction that can be compared to the massive drop from 1.3332. This slow upside activity is actually a sign of weakness, and the rise look pretty corrective. And unless the Euro moves clearly up today, things will become hard for the single currency, and this will leave room for the Dollar to take over. Short term most important support is provided by the rising trend line from last week’s low, which is currently at 1.2675. If broken, the Euro will start to lose ground, and will probably drop hard to 1.2550, and may be at a later time to the all important 1.2432. The most important resistance for the short term is at 1.2792, and if broken we will (finally) see the Euro creating a correction that can be tied in ratio to the enormous drop from 1.3332. This correction’s ideal targets start at 1.2871, then 1.2959. While the ultimate target is at 1.3047. Excitement is coming, but we need a break first. Support: • 1.2675: the rising trend line from Aug 24th low on hourly chart. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. • 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: • 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. • 1.2959: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen has tested (and surpassed) the falling trend line from Jun 4th top, which we talked about in Friday’s report, and said that it is at 85.28. Then it closed very close to it at 85.21. Although it came close to the 86 level after this week’s open, reaching a 9-day high, it came back down in the midst of the disappointment of the BoJ this morning. If we break this line decisively, the downtrend which started on June 4th will be over, and the Dollar will be ready to takeoff. The “verbal intervention” last week may and may not be the reason for this 200+ pips bounce after reaching a 15-year low, but technically breaking this line means a lot regardless of the Japanese authorities’ position. Resistance is at Friday’s top 85.43, and if broken we expect the Dollar to soar targeting 86.81 & may be 87.70. And in order to keep the chances of sustained break of this curtail trend line, we need to hold above the rising trend line from Tuesday’s bottom which is currently at 84.77. But, if this level gives way, then what we have seen so far of the Dollar’s fireworks is everything it has! And this jump from Tuesday’s 15-year low will be nothing but a correction. The price will continue falling, targeting 83.56 first, then our long awaited target 82.50. Support: • 84.77: the rising trend line from last Tuesday’s low on hourly chart. • 83.58: the 15-year low reached on Tuesday. • 82.50: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. Resistance: • 85.43: Friday’s top which is just above the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. • 87.70: June 26th top. --- GBPUSD The Pound dropped modestly on Friday, reaching 1.5441 before consolidating, and closing, above 1.55. Although the bounce we have seen from last week’s low is still small relatively to the drop if followed, and although this bounce did not make it to the first Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, we believe that it has a chance as long as it holds above 1.5441. The Pound is required to hold above this level, and then shoot up to test the resistance 1.5587. We do not recommend taking sides before the price leaves this “neutral zone” we see between 1.5441 & 1.5587. Therefore, today will be very significant for determining the next phase’s direction. And we will be before two scenarios: first, a break of 1.5441, in this case the rise from 1.5370 will be purely a correction. And if we fall below this support, it will be completely logical to expect a heavy dive targeting 1.5320 & 1.5238. The second scenario is holding above 1.5441, and then attacking 1.5587. If we succeed in breaking it, we will be already on the way to the most important resistance for the time being 1.5757. And if this one is also broken 1.5860 will be just an initial and modest target on the way up. Support: • 1.5441: the rising trend line from last week’s low. • 1.5320: Fibonacci 38.2% for the massive move up from 1.4227 to 1.5996. • 1.5238: Jul 8th high. Resistance: • 1.5587: the falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5757: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Aug 6th major top. • 1.5860: a very exciting resistance appearing on the hourly chart. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis August 31, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Watch Price Reaction to News Releases to Determine a Currency Pair’s Sentiment/Direction Expert: Chriss Hall When: Thu, Sep 2, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 3 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to use the power of economic news releases to indicate the market’s true sentiment. Most traders avoid the news because it’s volatile, or only believe it has a short term effect, but the way price reacts technically to surprises in news events can give you information beyond what’s on the chart alone and allow you to avoid deadly traps. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar Yesterday’s headline for the EURUSD was “Slowly rising, signaling weakness”, and the Euro listened, and kept on falling from the weekly open, losing more than 130 pips from its Asian session high. And with this drop, the pair broke our support 1.2675 and dropped more than 40 pips below it so far. This break, even though did not have immediate results, will destroy the Euro on the short term, and probably harm it on the medium term as well. The reason we believe so is that, this break in specific is the single most important technical factor in classifying the rise from 1.2586 as purely corrective. Therefore, we expect the pair to lose ground, and start to drop with targets below last Tuesday’s bottom. Short term support is at 1.2643, and once it is broken we will target the same targets suggested yesterday: 1.2550 first then the all important 1.2432, which is critical for the medium term outlook. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2721, and breaking it would reverse the affect of the channel break. This is highly unexpected, but if it happens, the Euro will reject our negative outlook and target important Fibonacci levels at 1.2792 & 1.2871. Support: • 1.2643: important intraday level. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. • 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: • 1.2721: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday’s top. • 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Although it came close to the 86 level after this week’s open, reaching a 9-day high, Dollar/Yen came back down in the midst of the disappointment of the BoJ yesterday. The Yen is back in the driver’s seat, and it will drive this pair lower again. The support specified in yesterday’s report at 84.77 was broken, and the price dropped to 84.11 so far. We expect the Yen’s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on the short term. We have noticed an ideal (Dark Cloud Cover) candle pattern on the daily chart (please refer to the attached chart), and this is a well known bearish pattern which promises more excitement as we drop lower & lower, especially after the BoJ disappointing the markets yesterday, and the “Japs” saying that they are “watching the currency movement closely”! The market has had it with such statements, the “japs” now will have to take a seat and watch the spectacular Yen show against the Dollar & the Euro. Short term support is at 84.03, if broken, we will be on the way to our long awaited target 82.50, and may be later we will test the psychological level 80.00, given enough time. On the other hand, it is hard now to imagine the Dollar beating the 85.21 resistance, But if it does, it will be violent in the face of those who believe in the Yen, and will shoot to 86.25 & may be 86.81. Support: • 84.03: previous well known support/ • 82.50: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 85.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterday’s high. • 86.25: Jul 16th low. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. --- GBPUSD Early this morning, the Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5441, after holding above it all day yesterday. With this break this pair has left the “neutral zone” which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 150 pips down from yesterday’s top, the price is subject to a short term correction, with a condition of staying below 1.5510. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. Short term support is at 1.5405, which we are trading just above as this report is prepared. If broken, the Pound will continue to fall, passing by 1.53 areas swiftly, and target 1.5293 & 1.5224. On the other hand, we could see a correction up to 1.5510, without changing this negative outlook. But if the Pound manages to break the resistance 1.5510, our negative outlook will suffer, and the price will shoot up to the important 1.5596, and the most important 1.5757. Support: • 1.5405: previous support/resistance area. • 1.5293: Jul 22nd high. • 1.5224: Jul 6th high. Resistance: • 1.5510: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterday’s top. • 1.5596: Aug 26th high and the slowly falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5757: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Aug 6th major top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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