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The euro will strengthen against the dollar in 2026

RBC experts forecast a strengthening of the euro against the US dollar in 2026, setting a target for the EUR/USD pair at 1.24.

To support this forecast, RBC analysts cite three main reasons for the likely appreciation of the euro against the US dollar.

1. The expected increase in hedging of US assets as the cost of rolling positions becomes cheaper. Such a shift in hedging strategies could create upward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
2. The ongoing expectation of a reallocation of investment from US markets to European ones. This hypothetical shift in capital flows should naturally support the strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the foreseeable future.
3. The prospect of more dynamic economic development in European countries in 2026, which will essentially become the fundamental basis for a higher valuation of the euro compared to the US dollar.

At the same time, RBC analysts also note a number of factors that are holding back the EUR/USD's long-term growth. These include:
     ✔ Outpacing productivity growth in the US,
     ✔ A shortage of attractive European alternatives to US Treasuries,
     ✔ The US's leading position in artificial intelligence and high technology,
     ✔ Continuing political risks within the European Union.

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The yuan remains stable against the dollar.

The yuan remains stable against the dollar, remaining at 7.114. The yuan is stable thanks to easing trade tensions and China maintaining its benchmark lending rates. Lending in China remains below expectations.

The dollar closed last week at 97.7, reflecting a recovery in the dollar index. This followed the Federal Reserve's rate cut and updated economic forecast.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.174, and a drop below 1.17 could lead to a decline in the euro. The British pound has rebounded slightly from its sharp decline, currently at 1.348. The Japanese yen remains in the 146.5-148.5 range.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and predicted two more cuts this year. The GDP growth forecast was raised, which is helping the dollar as unemployment data came in better than expected. Political tensions are rife in the US as Congress nears a government shutdown. Gold prices hit a record high of $3,714 per ounce amid demand for safe-haven assets.

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