Forex Fundamental And Technical Analysis

[capitalstreetFX]

Major Currency Pairs Gain as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Policy Decision. 28/10/2025

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs traded higher on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Growing expectations of a rate cut, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions, boosted investor sentiment and strengthened currencies such as the Euro, Pound, and New Zealand Dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near its weekly low at 98.50, reflecting broad Greenback weakness.
 

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Market Overview

Forex markets saw an upbeat tone across major pairs as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. Market consensus points to a 25-basis-point rate cut, reflecting the Fed’s intent to support subdued economic momentum amid moderate inflation and lingering trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–China trade deal continues to support risk assets. The Euro and Pound outperformed, while commodity-linked currencies like the Kiwi and Loonie gained modestly amid mixed commodity prices and cautious sentiment.
 

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Technical Summary (Compact Table)

Pair	Trend	RSI	Stochastic	Support Levels	Resistance Levels	Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD	Bullish	49.71 (Buy Zone)	53.41 (Neutral)	S1: 1.1635 / S2: 1.1562	R1: 1.1872 / R2: 1.1946	Buy Limit: 1.1630 / TP: 1.1692 / SL: 1.1593
GBP/USD	Bearish	44.02 (Neutral)	35.43 (Sell Zone)	S1: 1.3344 / S2: 1.3249	R1: 1.3651 / R2: 1.3746	Sell Limit: 1.3358 / TP: 1.3294 / SL: 1.3407
NZD/USD	Neutral	47.29 (Neutral)	59.67 (Buy Zone)	S1: 0.5755 / S2: 0.5696	R1: 0.5948 / R2: 0.6008	Sell Limit: 0.5777 / TP: 0.5755 / SL: 0.5793
USD/CAD	Bullish	58.43 (Buy Zone)	41.61 (Neutral)	S1: 1.3778 / S2: 1.3722	R1: 1.3959 / R2: 1.4014	Buy Limit: 1.3976 / TP: 1.4039 / SL: 1.3946

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Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD

The Euro continues to gain traction as the U.S. Dollar remains weak ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Bullish momentum persists for the fifth consecutive session, with the pair testing near 1.1670. Expectations of a dovish Fed and steady Eurozone GDP data could keep the pair supported above 1.1600. Technically, buyers maintain control as long as prices stay above the 10-day EMA.

Outlook: Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy on dips toward 1.1630, targeting 1.1690–1.1720.

 

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GBP/USD

The Pound extends modest gains, trading near 1.3350, as dovish Fed expectations weigh on the Dollar. However, persistent uncertainty regarding the Bank of England’s policy stance and upcoming U.K. budget announcements could limit upside momentum. All key moving averages remain aligned bearishly, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Outlook: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell near resistance at 1.3358, targeting 1.3290.

 

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NZD/USD

The Kiwi advances to a three-week high as easing U.S.–China trade tensions boost risk appetite. Despite this, dovish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand caps strong upside potential. The short-term tone remains balanced, with buyers and sellers vying for control around 0.5780.

Outlook: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Range trade between 0.5750–0.5800 with tight stops.

 

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USD/CAD

The pair holds steady near 1.4000 amid renewed Fed rate-cut expectations. Although the Greenback weakens broadly, lower oil prices and potential tariff-related trade friction with Canada weigh on the Loonie. With strong technical support at 1.3950, the pair maintains a constructive bias in the near term.

Outlook: Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy near 1.3970 for a move toward 1.4030.

 

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AI Q&A

Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar weakening ahead of the Fed decision?
A1: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to support economic growth, prompting traders to price in lower yields and reduce Dollar exposure.

Q2: How is U.S.–China trade optimism affecting forex markets?
A2: It is boosting risk sentiment, supporting higher-yielding currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Kiwi while reducing demand for safe-haven assets.

Q3: What technical level is key for EUR/USD traders?
A3: The 1.1600 level acts as a critical support; a sustained move above 1.1670 could signal further upside toward 1.1750.

Q4: What is driving GBP/USD’s bearish technical setup?
A4: Persistent negative crossovers across short- and medium-term moving averages and a neutral RSI indicate potential downside continuation.

Q5: Could USD/CAD break below 1.3950 soon?
A5: Unlikely in the short term, as Fed dovishness is offset by weak oil prices and potential Canadian trade headwinds, supporting USD/CAD near-term strength.
 

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Key Takeaways

• Forex markets are trading higher amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut.
• EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias as the Dollar weakens broadly.
• The GBP/USD remains under pressure despite expectations for the Fed.
• NZD/USD trades sideways, supported by trade optimism.
• USD/CAD holds firm, balancing Dollar weakness against lower oil prices.
• Traders await key U.S. data releases — CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales — for near-term direction.