Daily Market Analysis and Overview by Unitedpips

[Unitedpips]

BTCUSD Outlook: Breakout Retest Holds Above 110k



Introduction to BTC/USD
The BTCUSD pair tracks the value of Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD)—the world’s reserve currency. Often dubbed “digital gold” and the “king of crypto,” Bitcoin’s price in dollars remains the most watched benchmark in the digital‑asset market. Because the denominator is USD, shifts in US economic data and the dollar index frequently sway BTC/USD. This daily analysis (D1) blends price action, support and resistance, and indicator signals to frame today’s trading outlook.


BTCUSD Market Overview
On the daily time frame, BTC/USD continues to respect a rising (ascending) channel, keeping the broader structure bullish despite intermittent pullbacks. Over the last two sessions, buyers defended the breakout retest above the 110,000 zone and pushed price back toward the 118,000–120,000 psychological area. From the USD side, traders are focused on a dense run of US macro releases that tend to move the dollar—and by extension BTC/USD—via risk appetite and liquidity. The docket includes Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (ex‑Autos) from the Census Bureau, Import Price Index (BLS), Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve), Empire State Manufacturing Index (NY Fed), Business Inventories (Census), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & 1‑yr Inflation Expectations. As a rule of thumb, stronger‑than‑forecast US data tends to support USD and can cap BTC/USD, while softer prints usually weaken USD, lift risk assets, and can help the pair extend higher. The next notable dates cluster in mid‑September (UoM on Sep 12; NY Fed on Sep 15; Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories on Sep 16), so positioning into those events may remain sensitive in the sessions ahead.



BTCUSD Technical Analysis
On the daily chart (D1), BTC/USD broke above 110,000, pulled back to retest that level, and is now bouncing from the lower boundary of a well‑defined ascending channel. Price is rotating toward the dashed median line of the channel, with immediate overhead supply layered near 118,500–120,000. Fibonacci expansion of the most recent impulse leg projects upside targets at ~133,000 (0.618) and ~148,900 (0.786) should momentum carry price through the midline and upper boundary. The Linear Regression Slope prints +346.13, confirming a positive trend bias and indicating that the path of least resistance remains higher while this reading stays elevated. The Momentum oscillator is near +4,295, signaling that bullish pressure is rebuilding after the retest; sustained readings above zero typically support trend continuation, though a flattening or rollover from here would warn of range development around the midline. Key support is stacked at the channel lower band and the 110,000–112,000 breakout shelf; a daily close below 110,000 would invalidate the bullish channel and expose deeper pullbacks toward prior swing zones. On strength, watch 120,000, then ~123,000–125,000 (intermediate resistance), before the Fibonacci targets at 133,000 and 148,900.


Final words about BTC vs USD
The BTC/USD daily outlook remains constructively bullish while price holds above 110,000 and inside the ascending channel. Bulls will look for follow‑through from the lower‑band reaction into the midline, and a firm daily close above 120,000 would strengthen the case for a run toward 133,000. Bears would need a decisive break back below 110,000 to shift control and put 100,000–105,000 back in view. Macro‑wise, upcoming US data could inject volatility—USD‑positive surprises may temporarily cap rallies, whereas USD‑negative outcomes could provide fuel for an extension toward the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci expansion levels. As always, align entries with the channel structure, respect psychological round numbers, and keep risk tight around invalidation levels on this BTC/USD daily analysis.


Disclaimer: This BTCUSD analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.


08.15.2025