Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

GBP/USD rises after Trump's latest tariff policy

Yesterday the GBPUSD currency pair increased above 1.24000, the price drew a long body bullish candle with a small wick at the bottom of the candle. Price has formed a high of 1.25547, a low of 1.23325, closing at 1.24452. The price trend has broken the middle band from the downside.

Pound sterling gained positive traction as the USD weakened when President Trump announced new tariff policies on base metals such as aluminum and steel. President Trump reinstated full 25% tariffs on steel imports and raised tariffs on aluminum imports to 25%. Some countries are exempted from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, the European Union, Ukraine and the United Kingdom.

Yesterday's dollar index fell from a high of 108,463 to a low of 107,782 in line with Trump's latest tariff policy.

Today investors will still pay attention to President Trump Speaks at the White House to see Trump's statements that might influence global markets. Apart from that, Fed Chair Powell Testifies also attracts investors' attention to see subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack commented that she would prefer to keep interest rates steady for some time so the Fed can assess the economy. He added that the policy was 'a bit restrictive' and stressed that it was still unclear whether inflation would continue to move towards the Fed's target of 2%. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed maintaining interest rates at 96% and the possibility of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is only 4%.

On the other hand, Bank of England (BoE) member Catherine Mann chose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Today's highlight, apart from President Trump Speaks and Fed Chair Powell Testifies, investors are also paying attention to US CPI economic data which will be released today.

[Zeologic]

USD/JPY surges after US inflation data

This week USDJPY experienced a significant increase, three bullish candles showed consecutive increases with the peak of yesterday's increase after US inflation data was released. USDJPY draws a long-body bullish candle with a short wick on the candle top. Price formed a high of 154,796, a low of 152,377, a close of 154,414. Price managed to cross the middle band line and closed near the line.

Yesterday's CPI data release had a good impact on the USD and beat its rivals. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% on an annual basis in January, above market expectations and December's rise of 2.9%. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis.

The US dollar index (DXY) became more volatile after the release of CPI data and drew a doji candle with an open 108,009 high of 108,523 and low of 107,979 close of 107,985.

Meanwhile, in Japan, BOJ Governor Ueda warned about rising food prices which could stimulate inflation expectations. This has increased BoJ's hawkish speculation. Kazuo Ueda warned that rising food prices, including fresh food, could accelerate consumer inflation expectations.

Today investors will still highlight Trump's talks which might influence financial markets. Apart from that, investors will wait for the release of US PPI and unemployment claims data which is expected to provide support for the USD. On the other hand, Japan's PPI is predicted to increase by 4.% from 3.8% previously.

[Zeologic]

PPI data was as expected and US unemployment claims were supportive but USD weakened

In yesterday's trading, the USD/CNH pair drew a bearish long-body candle indicating a weakening of the US dollar against the Chinese Renminbi. Price formed a high of 7.3131, a low of 7.2670, and a close of 7.2676, crossing the middle band line from the upside.

Yesterday's US economic data showed monthly PPI at 0.4% from the expected 0.3% but still lower than the previous revision of 0.5%. Meanwhile, core PPI was 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. On the other hand, unemployment claims showed 213k, smaller than forecast, 217k from the last revision of 220k.

The dollar index (DXY) weakened yesterday by drawing a bearish long-body candle by forming a high of 107,996, a low of 107,033, and closing at 107,066. The dollar index tracks the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies. The weakening of the US dollar may also be triggered by concerns about inflation caused by Trump's tariff policy which some analysts predict will encourage inflation.

The Fed is not expected to lower interest rates at its March 19 meeting and maintain high interest rates due to the inflation target that is still uncertain despite concerns about inflation due to Trump's tariff policy. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates at 4.50% is 96%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 4%.

Meanwhile, the PBoC is expected to maintain the current interest rate of 3.10% set from November 2024 until the final release on January 20 2025.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices retreated on Friday as the rally was not strong enough

Gold prices on Friday drew a bearish long-body candle reflecting gold prices plummeting drastically after reaching near-new highs. The price of gold formed a high of 2939, a low of 2877, closing 2880. The market began to show fatigue because the gold rally did not look so strong.

Gold prior rose for three consecutive days and traded near record highs after US President Donald Trump's order for reciprocal tariffs against several countries increased uncertainty around trade and the global economy. Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US.

Meanwhile Fed chairman Jerome Powell's testimony On the first day of his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell reiterated that the central bank does not need to rush to adjust monetary policy. "The US economy is strong overall; inflation is closer to the 2% target but still somewhat high," the Fed has signaled not to cut interest rates at this week's meeting. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 97.5% and the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.5%.

The dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies was lower at 106.793 at press time, extending its previous decline to three consecutive days. US inflation data released Wednesday showed that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January, rose to 3% from 2.9% recorded in December. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis after a 0.2% increase recorded in the previous month. This reading exceeded market expectations by 0.3%.

This week investors will wait for the FOMC minutes to see further market developments. Investors may consider the speeches of FOMC members for subtle clues before the FOMC minutes. Today the US bank holiday may reduce the volume of transactions in financial markets in commemoration of Presidents' Day.

[Zeologic]

AUD/USD moves calmly waiting for RBA interest rates

Yesterday the AUDUSD currency pair drew a small bullish candle with a shadow on the top candle. Price formed a high of 0.63739, a low of 0.63457, a close of 0.63554 near the upper band line.

Even though it rose, the market was sluggish due to the US Bank holiday commemorating President's Day. The AUDUSD currency pair as the Australian dollar performed positively in the upbeat market sentiment. Market sentiment supports risk assets as investors expect United States President Donald Trump's tariff agenda will not have as big an impact as initially feared, as well as a weaker US Dollar.

Meanwhile in Australia, with inflation pressure tending to decline, market players anticipate a reduction in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10%. Nevertheless, the RBA could deliver a hawkish surprise by highlighting the tight labor market and inflation risks.

Markets will also be watching the RBA Monetary Policy Statement and RBA Rate Statement which may hint at the subtle tone of being the last G10 central bank to cut interest rates.

The dollar index (DXY) is currently at the level of 106,742 and yesterday drew a small bearish candle with short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle indicating a sluggish market. The US dollar has weakened more since mid-January. DXY tracks the USD currency against six major currencies.

The Fed is not expected to lower interest rates at this week's meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool the possibility of the fed keeping interest rates at 97.5%.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD falls more ahead of RBNZ Official Cash Rate

Yesterday the price of the NZD/USD currency pair drew a bearish candle with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 0.57347, a low of 0.56938, a closing of 0.57024. The price previously tried to break the upper band line and failed, finally returning to the range bands.

Today the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release the official cash rate. The RBNZ Governor decides on interest rate settings after consulting with the bank's senior staff and external advisors. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bp) from 4.25% to 3.75%.

Previously, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr explicitly predicted a 50 bp cut this month, if economic conditions continue to develop as projected, the committee hopes to reduce the OCR further early year. This decision was driven by concerns over a slowing economy and inflation returning to the central bank's target range of between 1% and 3%. New Zealand's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, in line with market projections and marking a sharp deceleration from 3.3% growth in the previous quarter.

In the third quarter New Zealand entered a recession with GDP contracting 1% and contracting 1.1% the previous quarter. However, New Zealand's economy remains sluggish despite easing policy in November.

Ahead of the RBNZ meeting the NZDUSD currency pair reached the level of 0.57494 driven by the easing of tensions around United States (US) President Donald Trump's tariffs and the downward trend of the US Dollar.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies, began to come under pressure in mid-January, although it rose at the beginning of February at 109,861 but fell more afterward, now at 107,009.

[Zeologic]

Ahead of the FOMC minutes, Silver prices hovered near the upper band line

The XAGUSD pair yesterday drew a bearish higher high candle with wicks on both sides of the top and bottom candles. Price formed a high of 33,074, a low of 32,443, and a close of 32,689 near the upper band line.

Silver prices increased further because they were driven by safe-haven buying amid concerns about economic uncertainty amid Trump's tariff policy which analysts considered could encourage inflation. Gold has reached an all-time high while Silver remains in focus, mainly due to industrial and monetary demand.

Next, the market will also focus on the FOMC minutes which may influence short-term movements. With the Fed's interest rate currently at 4.25%-4.50% investors will be looking for clues as to how long the Fed will maintain interest rates. Any hawkish hint could push Treasury yields higher and strengthen the US dollar, potentially limiting Silver's upside. On the other hand, if the Fed declares an economic slowdown, this could benefit Silver, a pause in interest rates or a reduction in interest rates in the future could support precious metals such as Gold and Silver, because lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding assets.

Trump's tariff policy is weighing on financial markets, but if inflation concerns persist, demand for safe-haven assets could continue.

Today, apart from focusing on the FOMC minutes and President Trump's speech, investors will also look at US economic data related to Unemployment Claims which are expected to rise to 215k from the previous 213k.

[Zeologic]

The Japanese Yen strengthened across all currency pairs on expectations of a BOJ rate hike

The USDJPY pair yesterday drew a bearish candle extending the previous day's decline. Price formed a bearish long-body candle with a high of 151,445, a low of 149,397, a closing of 149,632. USDJPY landed on the lower band almost crossing the line.

The strengthening of the Japanese Yen seems to be triggered by several factors such as Trump's tariff threat, reviving concerns about the trade war, and also benefiting the JPY as a safe-haven currency. The hope of an increase in interest rates is also an attraction for the Japanese Yen.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino recently hinted at the possibility of another interest rate hike if the economy and prices match projections. One BoJ board member said that Japan's real interest rates remain highly negative and the central bank will have to adjust the level of monetary support further if the economy moves in line with forecasts. Japan's strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released earlier this week and signs of widespread inflationary pressures suggest that the BoJ will raise borrowing costs sooner.

Meanwhile, the results of a Reuters poll published on Thursday showed that the majority of economists expect the BoJ to raise interest rates during the third quarter, to 0.75%. Meanwhile, Trump's threat of tariffs sparked concerns about a global trade war which in turn increased safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen.

On the other hand, the Fed will take careful action in considering cutting interest rates because Fed officials note a high level of uncertainty. Today several high-impact news will be released regarding several major currencies and this may increase market volatility.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices are still floating near the all-time high entering a consolidation phase and failed to make a firm move in any direction until the end of the week.

Last week, XAUUSD mostly floated near the all-time high with an indecision candle pattern. On Friday, the price formed a high of 2949, a low of 2916, a close of 2932, and an open of 2935. The price drew a closer as a doji candle.

The precious metal gold has recorded increases for eight consecutive weeks. Concerns over Trump's tariffs appear to be affecting gold demand and triggering arbitrage trading. Some geopolitical and political headlines are likely to continue to influence Gold's valuation in the near term.

President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports in the previous week and plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on foreign cars and added that imports of semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals would be the next to face higher tariffs.

Meanwhile, in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting, several noted that potential changes to Trump's policies on trade and immigration could hamper the disinflation process. This indicates that inflation is predicted to remain high.

On the other side of gold, news related to several of the largest financial institutions in the world such as JPMorgan and HSBC trying to take advantage of the price difference between the Gold futures market in New York and the cash market in London to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities from the difference in gold spot prices and COMEX futures prices

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its gold price forecast from $2,890 to $3,100 as structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to gold prices by the end of the year, which, combined with a gradual increase in ETF holdings.

Today, no high-impact news is predicted to affect gold. Even the Japanese bank holiday in observance of the Emperor's Birthday may slightly reduce volume in Asian markets. However, this week, several investors are focused on waiting for US GDP and PCE data.

[Zeologic]

The EUR/JPY pair corrected slightly near the lower band.

Yesterday, the EURJPY currency pair drew a bullish small-body candle with a short shadow wick on the top candle. The price formed a high of 157,252, a low of 156,002, and a close of 156,690. EURJPY has fallen more since February 13 after failing to cross the middle band line. Bollinger bands drawing a descending channel reflect the market more to the downside.

The Japanese yen weakened slightly due to a small correction in the 10-year JGB yield. The asset strengthened as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened overall amid a small correction in the 10-year Japanese bond yield. Investors rushed to buy Japanese bonds after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said he could increase the government's bond purchase program if long-term interest rates rise sharply. The 10-year JGB yield fell to nearly 1.41% from 1.45%, the highest level seen in nearly 15 years.

The hope that the BoJ will raise interest rates may be able to maintain the Yen. This hope is increasingly convincing because the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January were higher than expected.

Today investors will focus on important data releases such as European GDP data which is predicted to be the same as the previous revision of -0.2%.

[Zeologic]

The Swiss franc strengthened as the yield on 10-year Swiss government bonds rose

Yesterday the price of the USD/CHF currency pair drew a bearish long-body candle crossing the middle band from the upper side indicating a strong decline. Price formed a high of 0.89778 low of 0.89122 closing at 0.89288 on the FXOpen platform.

The Swiss Franc is gaining positive traction due to the weakening US dollar following disappointing US economic data such as last week's Jobless Claims and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) found support as the yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose.

Traders may still be anticipating the Fed's interest rate prospects, which are predicted to maintain interest rates for a longer time amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policy. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possible target rate at the March 19 Fed meeting is forecast to hold interest rates at a 96.5% probability and only a 4.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at 106,283 at the time of writing, the DXY value is weakening more referring to the 50 EMA which is drawing a descending channel above the price. On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.92% from the previous day's 1.98%.

In Switzerland inflation has fallen to 0.4%, the lowest level in almost four years raising expectations of easing in March, earlier in December the SNB had cut interest rates by 50 basis points and signaled the possibility of additional cuts.

Today investors will also focus on Trump's speech which will hold a press conference about his latest executive order at the White House.

Edited February 26 by Zeologic

[Zeologic]

USD/CAD started trading on a positive note rising for the fourth consecutive day

The price of the USDCAD currency pair yesterday drew a bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price has formed a high of 1.43646, a low of 1.42938, a close of 1.43442. The pair recorded a new high of 1.43646 since mid-February.

The Canadian dollar underperformed as investors expected the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further reduce interest rates. The BoC has reduced its key lending rate to nearly 3% from a peak of 5% seen in May 2024. Canadian inflation continues to remain below the BoC's target of 2% due to a sluggish economic slowdown.

Meanwhile the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies, rose from a low of 106,159 to a high of 106,654 driven by the $4.5 trillion tax cut bill proposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which was approved by the House of Representatives which is predicted to boost economic growth and inflation. The Fed is expected to maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a longer period of time due to inflation concerns amid economic growth due to the impact of Trump's economic policies. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool the likelihood of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 95.5% at its meeting on March 19.

Today investors will focus on the release of US GDP and Unemployment Claims news which might provide a boost to the USDCAD currency pair. US Prelim GDP is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 2.3%, while unemploymeNt claims are forecast to rise by 222k from the previous revision of 219k. Additional data on US durable goods orders may provide insight into the US economy which is forecast to increase by 2.0% from the previous -2.2%.

[Zeologic]

USD/CNH rose to a high of 7.3023 amid the strengthening of the US dollar

The USDCNH currency pair yesterday drew a bullish long body candle indicating a strong uptrend and has crossed the middle band from the downside. USDCNH price formed a high 7.3023 low 7.2583 closing 7.2996.

US prelim GDP yesterday showed 2.3%, the same as the previous period according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, unemployment claims increased by 242k, higher than the expected 222k and also higher than the previous revision of 220k. The same GDP data gives a neutral economic signal while unemployment claims are increasing at uncertain growth.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump confirmed that his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4. Analysts have feared a decline in the US economy as Trump's controversial policies add to concerns such as layoffs of federal workers by the Department of Government Efficiency, which have caused consumers and businesses to increasingly question the economic outlook.

The USDCNH currency pair on the weekly time frame for five weeks has moved more in the range of low 7.2342 and high 7.3670, this currency pair tends to be stable at the trading range level even though it fluctuates due to various economic news that occurs in both China and the US.

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release important inflation data that the Fed favors in making its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) interest rate policy which is expected to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.2%. High inflation will be a serious consideration for the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer.

[Zeologic]

Gold fell more in trading last week

The price of gold throughout early 2025 has experienced a significant increase since early January and has recorded new all-time highs several times. The last gold ATH was at 2956, which was formed on February 24. Furthermore, gold failed to maintain its gains, and last week, there were more declines. Last weekend,d gold drew a bearish candle with a rather long wick at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 2885, a low of 2832, and a closing of 2856.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data was released on Friday. There were no significant surprises, as monthly PCE was forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%, and general PCE at 0.3%, unchanged compared to December figures. The Dollar Index (DXY) has been strengthening since Wednesday and has risen to a high of 107.661 from a low of 106.159. The strengthening of the USD was one of the reasons for the weakening of gold prices last week.

In other hot news, United States President Donald Trump reiterated that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin on March 4, while China will experience an additional 10%, increasing the total tariffs to 20% on imports into the US. He also emphasized peace between Russia and Ukraine, even though there is no clarity on negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin.

According to a World Gold Council report, global demand for gold, which reached a record high of almost 5,000 tons last year, will continue in early 2025. However, jewelry purchases will be weak as prices reach record highs. According to the WGC, India overtook China as the largest importer of gold last year due to a reduction in import taxes on the commodity. On the other hand, China experienced a decline due to the weakening of its economy from year to year.

According to analysts, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which may continue this year, can still influence gold's long-term prospects. Despite this, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset in times of global economic uncertainty.

There are no high-impact news releases on today's economic calendar, but investors will probably pay attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to remain unchanged at 50.6.

[Zeologic]

AUDUSD pair consolidates after decline

Yesterday the AUDUSD currency pair drew a bullish small body candle with an on top candle wick. Price formed a high of 0.62542, a low of 0.62037, a closing of 0.62244. Price is near the lower band line.

The AUDUSD pair started its decline since February 21 amid strengthening USD. Dollar index (DXY) is now 106,415, dropping from high 107,564.

Financial markets were shocked again by President Donald Trump announcing his intention to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, up from the currently planned 10%. He also said there was no room left for a deal on duties affecting Mexico and Canada. Trump's policies have a broad impact on financial markets due to uncertainty that could lead to trade wars and inflation.

According to the Fedwatch tool CME group, the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates high is 91% and the possibility of reducing interest rates is only 9% at the next March 19 meeting.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February and signaled a measured approach going forward. Investors await RBA minutes due on Tuesday for clues on further easing measures as inflation remains a priority.

Today Australia has released Retail Sales of 0.3% as expected and higher than previously at -0.1%.

In the future, investors will also focus on US economic data related to ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

[Zeologic]

GBP/USD maintains gains when USD weakens

The GBPUSD extended its previous gains and has reached a new high of 1.27997. The price draws a long bullish candle reaching the upper band line. Price formed a high of 1.27997, a low of 1.26787, and a close of 1.27941 near MA 200.

The dollar index (DXY) is currently extending losses at 105.526, crossing the 20, 50, and 100 MA from the upside. The US dollar weakened amid hot news about Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were implemented this month. Apart from that, Trump also changed the additional tariffs on Chinese products to 20% from previously only 10%. It seems that Trump's policy has changed the mood of investors and is one of the reasons for the weakening of the USD.

Meanwhile, according to data from the U.S. On March 4, the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates on March 4 experienced an increase for the 7-year tenor to 4.11%, while the 10-year tenor was 4.22%.

In the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index in February fell 0.7% YoY overnight, but on the other hand, prices rose 0.4% MoM due to rising food prices. Meanwhile, in January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3%.

Today, the UK parliament will hear Monetary Policy Report Hearings by BOE speakers BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC members.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors will wait for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall to 141k from the previous 183k. This data is to measure the estimated number of workers in the previous month, excluding the agricultural and government industries. ADP analyzed payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain job growth estimates.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD surges amid poor US dollar performance

The NZDUSD currency pair increased for three consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a long bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price formed a high of 0.57318, a low of 0.56374, and a closing of 0.57245. The USD/CAD started to rise on March 3 after the price was at the lower band. This increase was in line with the poor performance of the US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY) has experienced three consecutive days of decline from a high of 107.654 to a low of 104.259. The weakening performance of the US dollar may be caused by Trump's tariff policy, which brings concerns about trade wars and economic uncertainty. After reiterating the proposed tariff for Canada and Mexico of 25%, and also the tariff on China, which was increased to 20%.

China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, New Zealand could be impacted by this trade war given its significant dependence on exports to China.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released yesterday also showed that the actual data was much lower than expectations. ADP Employment data was only 77k, far below the forecast of 141k and the previous revision of 186k. This seems to be another reason for the US dollar's poor performance. However, the ISM Services PMI data was higher than forecast at 53.5, above the forecast of 52.5 and the previous revision of 52.8. Although mixed economic data still does not help the value of the dollar index to rise.

Today, RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks delivered the opening speech at a research conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. Investors will be looking for subtle hints of possible hawkishness or dovishness that could influence the currency.

Apart from that, we will also pay attention to US Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to fall by 234k from the previous revision of 242k.

[Zeologic]

Silver Price Rises, Cautious Seeing High Price

Silver is one of the precious metals that is an alternative hedge besides gold. Yesterday, the Silver price with the symbol XAGUSD drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 32,761 low of 32,253 closing at 32,626. The Silver price has tended to rise since March which had dropped to a low of 30,814.

The US Dollar's downward trend strengthened on Wednesday, driven by concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump's tariff policy sparked concerns about economic uncertainty. The dollar index (DXY) dropped to 103,761 yesterday, extending its previous three-day decline, although now the DXY value is slightly up at 104,180 at the time of writing.

The United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released on Wednesday showed a figure of 77k smaller than the forecast of 141k from the previous revision of 186k. Traders sometimes use this information to project the possibility of NFP, which will be released today. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims released on Thursday showed a figure of 221k, smaller than the forecast of 234k from the previous revision of 242k. Although the unemployment claims data was lower than expected, it did not help much to strengthen the dollar index.

Silver demand in Shanghai, according to SMM, is bullish influenced by a discount factor on silver contract which partly for hedging position, while downstream buyers are cautious in buying at high level and remain on the sidelines.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, with President Christine Lagarde stressing the need for higher caution in uncertain economic conditions.

Today, investors will focus on US data to be released, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings to get a picture of the recent US economy.
 

[Zeologic]

Gold volatility decreased, marked by a shrinking Bollinger band.

Gold prices last week moved steadily in the range of the $2900 price level. Buyers were reluctant to increase volume, and sellers were still holding their positions. Gold price volatility has slightly decreased with a range of low at 2894 to high 2930, the shrinking Bollinger band indicates lower volatility in gold. Gold prices at the close of Friday formed a high of 2930 and a low of 2896, closing at 2908 near the middle band line.

Although gold has entered a consolidation phase, inflation data from the US and political news can continue to affect gold prices in the short term. US President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a mineral deal with Ukraine, interpreting two possibilities to open the way for a Russian ceasefire; investors will continue to monitor global geopolitical changes.

In the US, there are increasing concerns about the US economy, which are weighing on the USD. The dollar index (DXY,) which tracks the USD against six major currencies, shows a weakening trend in the USD; DXY is now at 103.759, which started its decline since January 2025 from a high of 110.176. Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico of 25% and an additional import tariff on China of 10% are the reasons for the increasing selling of the USD. Although the impact is more visible on other major currencies than gold.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in February fell to 50.3 from 50.9 in January, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in manufacturing business activity. Meanwhile, the Employment Index fell to 47.6 from 50.3, indicating a contraction in the sector's payrolls. Meanwhile, the NFP data released on Friday showed 151k smaller than the forecast of 159k but still higher than the previous 125k.

Meanwhile, the Fed, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool at its meeting on March 19, predicted the Fed would maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by 97%, and the possibility of a cut to 4.00%-4.25% was only 3.0%.

Looking at today's economic calendar schedule, there is no high-impact news to be released, but traders will still see market changes in real time.

[Zeologic]

USD/JPY falls further ahead of Japan's GDP and US jobs data.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen currency pair remains in bearish sentiment. Yesterday, the price drew a bearish candle with a lower low extending the previous decline. The price formed a high of 147.954, a low of 146.632, and closed at 147.256.

The Japanese Yen still maintains its positive bias against the US dollar amidst market bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates. This was supported in data that showed that real cash income fell 1.8% due to persistently low inflation. Adding to this, growing confidence that the strong wage increases seen last year will continue this year supports the argument for further BoJ policy tightening.

Meanwhile, in the US, fears may persist over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies and the global trade war resulting from Trump's policies, further strengthening the JPY's status as a relatively safe-haven currency. As is known, Trump's proposal for imports from Canada and Mexico to be subject to a 25% tariff while China gets an additional 10% tariff from the previous 10% to 20% can affect the economic policies of the affected countries. Canada has reportedly removed US products from their store shelves as an act of retaliation for the policy.

The dollar index (DXY), although slightly up but still under pressure. DXY is now at 103.903, having previously dropped to a low of 103.458 on Friday. RSI points to level 27 on the daily timeframe, indicating oversold value.

Today, the market will wait for the Japan GDP data report year after year and per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision, and the US JOLTS Job Openings employment data report, which is estimated to increase to 7.65M from the previous 7.60M, according to Forexfactory data.