Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

GBP/USD will focus on today's Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair drew a fairly long-bodied bullish candle, reflecting a weakening USD. The GBP/USD price formed a high of 1.33681, a low of 1.32815, and a close of 1.33557 on FXOpen's platform.

The US dollar continued its downtrend and plunged to a multi-day low on Wednesday, as investors remained wary of President Trump's plans for Chairman Powell's replacement and developments on the trade front ahead of the upcoming deadline. The DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, fell 0.51%, crossing the 20-EMA from the upside, reaching a low of 98.128 from a high of 98.837.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its August 7 meeting, from 4.15% to 4.00%. This cut is expected due to high inflation of 3.6% in June, but the UK economy is showing signs of weakness and a weakening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.7%. This is part of the longest and most gradual cycle since World War II.

US economic data shows a weak July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure of just 73,000 jobs, a significant negative revision from the previous month. The July ISM services index (ISM) was only 50.1, indicating stagnation in the service sector. Market expectations are starting to include the potential for a Fed rate cut in September, with a probability of over 75%. Comments from Fed officials, such as Governor Mary Daly, who recently indicated that two rate cuts in 2025 are appropriate. These types of statements can influence expectations regarding the Fed's policy path.

If Fed officials' comments are more hawkish, the US dollar could strengthen. Conversely, dovish comments or weaker data could weaken the USD.

On August 7, the US will release data on initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as productivity and unit labor costs. These figures will provide subtle clues about the health of the US labor market and inflationary pressures.

The potential for volatility remains high in GBPUSD ahead of the BoE announcement. Market reaction is focused not only on the interest rate cut but also on the BoE's future outlook.

Technically, the support levels of 1.3300 and 1.3140 are expected to be key, while resistance levels around 1.3400 and 1.3585 will be targets for bulls if the BoE surprises with a hawkish tone.

[Zeologic]

EUR/JPY opened with a slight gap at the open.

EURJPY opened at 171.673, slightly below Friday's closing price of 171.971. Japanese banks will be closed today in observance of Mountain Day, which may affect trading volume, particularly in the Japanese Yen. On Friday, the EURJPY pair drew a small bullish candle, with a high of 172.339, a low of 171.363, and a close of 171.971 on FXOpen's platform. EURJPY's movement tended to be stable over the two trading days.

In general, the fundamental bias for the EURJPY pair remains bullish, supported by several key factors related to monetary policy and global market sentiment.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a more cautious stance on monetary policy easing compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This slower pace of easing could support the stability of the Euro.

The BoJ continues to maintain a very dovish monetary policy, meaning the Japanese central bank tends to keep interest rates low to support economic growth, this policy has the potential to weaken the JPY.

The contrasting monetary policies of the more hawkish ECB and the dovish BoJ have created a significant interest rate divergence. This interest rate divergence makes the Euro more attractive to investors, potentially driving the EURJPY up.

When global sentiment tends to be risk-on (investors are optimistic and willing to take risks), safe-haven currencies like the JPY typically weaken. Conversely, the Euro tends to strengthen in these conditions. Currently, global risk-on sentiment is supporting the EUR's strengthening against the JPY.

From the latest economic data, although there are no specific major economic releases scheduled for today, it is important to continue monitoring upcoming economic data from the Eurozone and Japan, such as inflation and GDP, which could influence market expectations regarding central bank policy and change the direction of the pair's movement.

Although the BoJ maintains a dovish stance, the risk of Japanese government intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the JPY remains, potentially limiting JPY weakness.

If market sentiment suddenly shifts to risk-off (investors avoid risk), the JPY could strengthen as a safe-haven currency, which could cause the Euro to weaken. If the ECB indicates it is accelerating its policy easing path, this could weaken the euro and negatively impact the EURJPY.

[Zeologic]

WTI oil prices remain under pressure, declining for seven consecutive days.

The oil price on the XTIUSD pair yesterday drew a bearish candle, after previously attempting a rebound, but failed to extend its gains after seven consecutive days of decline. Oil prices formed a high of 63.53, a low of 62.42, and a close of 62.43 on FXOpen's platform.

WTI oil price movements will be fundamentally influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, as well as market sentiment related to important economic data.

US crude oil inventory data released last night by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a change of 4.2 million barrels. This larger-than-expected decline in stocks indicates a bullish signal that oil demand in the United States is quite strong, or that supply is experiencing a bottleneck.

The oil market is currently awaiting the meeting between the US and Russia. This meeting indicates that energy and geopolitical issues are top of mind. The outcome of the meeting, especially if there is an agreement or statement affecting oil supply, could trigger significant volatility. There is also the potential for new sanctions on Iran, which, if implemented, could disrupt supplies and push prices up.

Global demand data shows mixed results. The latest OPEC+ report projects an increase in global demand in 2026, providing positive sentiment for the long-term outlook. However, concerns about the global economic slowdown and its impact on global oil demand continue to loom. UBS has even cut its Brent crude price projection for the end of 2025. Furthermore, US inflation data will also be closely monitored to gauge the global economy.

OPEC+ and its allies will likely hold back production increases unless there is a significant supply disruption, aiming to stabilize prices. Meanwhile, US oil production is currently at high levels, which could be a factor in price pressure.

A bullish scenario would be if the market responds positively to a significant decline in API oil stocks. Or if there are sentiments indicating oil supply disruptions, such as in the Middle East and the US-Russia meeting. Or if economic data from major oil-consuming countries shows better-than-expected economic strength.

A bearish scenario would be if the market focuses more on concerns and a global economic slowdown, which could potentially depress oil prices. Or if general market sentiment remains dominated by concerns about trade tariffs and tight monetary policy.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin moves near key resistance near its all-time high of $123,000

Bitcoin's price remains hovering near its all-time high of $123,000. The BTC/USD price on Wednesday, August 13, drew a bullish candle with a long body and short wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 122966, a low of 118916, and a close of 122896 on FXOpen's platform. Some traders appear to be awaiting Bitcoin's breakout momentum, which could send the price rising to a new all-time high.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin currently enjoys positive market sentiment. Many analysts view 2025 as the post-halving year, which historically triggers significant price spikes. The total crypto market capitalization is currently reported to have reached $4 trillion.

Institutional adoption remains a key driver. Reports indicate significant interest from financial institutions in crypto ETFs such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) launched by leading university Harvard University, demonstrates this trend. Strong fund flows into the Ethereum ETF (ETHA) also strongly indicate institutional interest.

Developments in crypto regulations in the US are also providing positive support for Bitcoin. President Trump's executive order to ease access to digital assets in retirement plans could open the door to significant capital inflows into the crypto market.

Technically, Bitcoin has recently hovered around its all-time high, despite a brief correction. Some analysts see technical patterns indicating a potential further breakout, possibly reaching $126,000 or even $130,000. Some Bitcoin miners, such as Sequans, have also reportedly increased their Bitcoin holdings.

Today, the market will focus on the release of US economic data, namely the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims. These data will provide clues about inflationary pressures and the state of the US labor market.

The Fed appears to have factored in the possibility of an interest rate cut. Statements from Fed officials, such as Barkin's speech today, will be closely watched for further clues regarding future monetary policy.

DXY sentiment remains generally weak, recently dropping to a two-week low. This decline may have been driven by market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and increased risk-on sentiment, which has driven investors to choose riskier assets, including crypto.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin price stabilizes around $117k, with upside potential still present

We witnessed a correction in the BTCUSD price after reaching a new all-time high above $124k. The price then fell to around $117k. This stable price movement within a narrow range occurred for four consecutive days, with movement near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin is currently in an interesting phase, with several key factors likely influencing its movement.

Market sentiment and institutional adoption remain the main drivers of Bitcoin price movements. Currently, the crypto market generally shows neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is at 59, indicating the market is not experiencing excessive euphoria or panic. This is a healthy signal, as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, indicating continued interest from institutional investors.

Bitcoin recently experienced a correction following a disappointing US PPI report. This demonstrates that, despite its role as an independent asset, Bitcoin is still influenced by US macroeconomic data. Movements in the Fed's interest rate and the US dollar exchange rate remain important factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements.

Meanwhile, miner activity in August 2025 will influence BTC price movements due to the balance between miner sales and institutional inflows. If miners continue to sell BTC to cover operational costs, this could create selling pressure. However, if institutional demand is stronger, the potential for Bitcoin price increases remains open.

Overall, the long-term fundamental sentiment for BTCUSD remains positive, with some analysts predicting BTC could reach $150,000, even after hitting a record high above $124,000 in August.

Technically, the BTCUSD price movement is showing signs of consolidation, hovering around $117k-$118k, with support at $111k-$112k. Stronger support is around $108k.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices plummet due to geopolitical changes

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, August 19th, drawing a small-bodied bearish candlestick below the middle band line. Gold prices formed a high of 3345, a low of 3314, and a close of 3315 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices fell as Trump, Zelenskiy, and European leaders discussed possible negotiations with Russia. Geopolitical developments suggest that a positive outcome from US President Trump's meeting with Putin, Zelenskiy, and European leaders could end the ongoing war. Safe-haven demand declined as speculation about security guarantees for Kyiv fueled a potential end to the war.

Fundamentally, gold price movements are also influenced by the strength of the US dollar and market risk sentiment.

Traders will focus on the FOMC minutes, which will be released on August 21st, refers to the ForexFactory economic calendar. These minutes will provide further clues regarding Fed officials' views on the economic outlook, inflation, and, most importantly, the future direction of interest rate policy. If the minutes indicate a hawkish Fed stance, this will strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, if the minutes are dovish, the US dollar will weaken, supporting gold.

Gold is a non-yielding asset; rising interest rates make it less attractive to large investors who prefer bonds with higher yields. This tends to strengthen the USD, depressing gold prices. Conversely, if the US dollar weakens due to interest rate cuts, gold prices have the potential to strengthen.

The US-China trade war could influence market sentiment. Progress or delays in tariff negotiations could reduce uncertainty, prompting investors to choose riskier assets like stocks and avoid gold as a safe-haven. Conversely, escalating tensions could boost gold demand.

Investors will also be focused on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting that any escalation or de-escalation could directly impact gold.

Gold movements are expected to be highly volatile, especially ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. A bullish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes show a more dovish-than-expected Fed stance, and if there is an escalation in geopolitical and trade tensions, investors would potentially seek safe-haven assets. A bearish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes confirm a hawkish stance that supports the USD, and if improved risk sentiment in the market, for example, optimism regarding conflict resolution, could reduce gold's appeal.

Given the importance of Fed data, investors are currently likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the data is released. Market movements will depend on how the market responds to and interprets the Fed's signals.

[Zeologic]

Silver Rebounds After Four Consecutive Days of Decline

Silver prices yesterday drew a bullish candle with a long body and a relatively long wick at the bottom of the candle. Silver formed a high of 37,937, a low of 36,954, and a close of 37,889. Silver prices rebounded after touching the lower band line.

Fundamental factors that could influence the current silver price include US monetary policy, global market sentiment, and industrial demand.

The Fed's monetary policy report indicated that they are in no rush to cut interest rates. A prolonged high-interest-rate scenario tends to strengthen the USD and is a negative factor for silver. The DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently at 98.227, down slightly by 0.06% but has successfully crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) from the downside.

High interest rates make non-yielding silver less attractive, with investors preferring yield-bearing assets such as US Treasuries, which in turn strengthens the USD.

From a geopolitical perspective, geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars, such as the one between China and the US, can increase the potential demand for safe-haven assets like silver, potentially curbing price declines. Although silver is not considered a major safe-haven asset like gold, it still benefits from global uncertainty due to investor demand for non-flat assets.

Significant industrial demand, particularly in technology sectors such as solar panels, electric cars, and electronics, is present. Slowing global economic growth prospects could reduce demand in these industries, which in turn pressures silver prices. Silver prices often move in tandem with gold; rising gold prices can support silver.

From a fundamental perspective, there appears to be a tug-of-war between factors that pressure and support silver prices. Geopolitical concerns and potential safe-haven demand support silver, but the Fed's hawkish stance tends to suppress silver prices. The strengthening of the USD, although slightly weakened, still offers upside potential.

The probability of an interest cut rate, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, currently indicates an 81.0% chance of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting.