Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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AUDUSD Pair Faces Bearish Pressure on H4 Chart

AUD/USD, commonly referred to as the "Aussie," represents the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. It is one of the most actively traded currency pairs globally, reflecting the economic dynamics between Australia and the United States. Fundamental analysis indicates potential volatility today due to crucial news events including the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision and rate statement, both influential in guiding traders' expectations regarding future monetary policy. Positive or hawkish signals from the RBA, hinting at higher interest rates or stronger economic outlooks, would likely strengthen the Australian dollar. Conversely, commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman at the Santander Banking Conference, combined with U.S. consumer confidence data from RealClearMarkets, may influence USD strength depending on perceived economic optimism or signals toward future Fed policy adjustments.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the AUD/USD H4 chart today indicates short-term bearish momentum, evident from the latest five consecutive bearish candles. The AUDUSD price action is currently within a narrowing Ichimoku green cloud, suggesting reduced volatility and potential trend uncertainty. Both Leading Spans A and B have flattened, hinting at indecision in market direction. The last candle closed below both the baseline (Kijun-sen) and conversion line (Tenkan-sen), aligning closely with the lagging span (Chikou Span). Additionally, the recent volume has been predominantly bearish, supported by four consecutive red volume bars. MACD indicators (12,26) are currently negative at -0.00029 and -0.00048 respectively, with a histogram reading at 0.00019, further suggesting bearish sentiment and possible continuation of the downward price action in the short term.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

US 500 Index Technical and Fundamental Update

The US 500 Index, widely known as the S&P 500 or “the barometer of the US economy,” tracks 500 leading US companies and reflects the overall market and economic performance. From a fundamental perspective, today’s focus is on the ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and remarks from President Trump at the America Business Forum. Strong employment and PMI data could boost the USD and pressure equities as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy, while weaker data may support risk assets by increasing expectations for easing. The EIA report could also sway sentiment through its impact on inflation outlooks, and Trump’s comments may add volatility depending on his economic tone.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the US 500 H4 chart, the market remains broadly bullish, though several bearish corrections have formed lower lows. The candles have corrected up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and are struggling to break lower levels. The 0.236 Fibonacci at 6849.93 could be the next resistance, while the 6770–6760 area provides short-term support. Williams %R at -99.67 signals oversold conditions, hinting at a possible rebound. The MACD (-11.83, -22.93, -11.11) confirms bearish momentum, though it’s beginning to flatten. Ichimoku readings (6834.18, 6865.09, 6777.61, 6761.56) show price below the cloud, reinforcing a bearish tone. A drop below 6760 could open the way toward 6700 (0.618 Fibonacci), while a close above 6849 might trigger a short-term bullish reversal.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

USDCAD Correction Phase Signals Trading Opportunity

USD/CAD, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, reflecting trade relations between the United States and Canada. The pair's movements are significantly influenced by crude oil prices, given Canada's role as a major oil exporter. Today, the USD/CAD is anticipated to experience volatility due to multiple speeches by key policymakers including BOC Governor Tiff Macklem and Federal Reserve members. Hawkish sentiments from the Bank of Canada speakers, suggesting potential monetary tightening, could strengthen the Canadian dollar, whereas bullish remarks from Fed officials emphasizing rate stability or hikes would support the USD. Traders should closely monitor these events to anticipate short-term direction and price action volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From the provided H4 technical chart, USD/CAD is observed to have been moving upwards within a clear bullish channel, repeatedly testing a resistance zone above the upper band of this channel but facing breakout failures. Currently, the price action has reached the upper resistance level and appears to be initiating a corrective pullback towards the channel, signifying a short-term correction phase. The MACD indicator signals weakening bullish momentum, suggesting a potential consolidation or mild correction. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought scenario and is poised for a bearish crossover, aligning with the anticipated brief corrective period before potentially resuming the bullish trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

Edited 1 hour ago by Capitalcore