RBFX Support Posted August 30 Author Share Posted August 30 (edited) USDJPY forecast: investors anticipate BoJ rate hike The USDJPY pair is experiencing a slight correction on Friday after two consecutive days of gains. To understand the latest market movements, delve into our analysis for 30 August 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points Japan's unemployment rate for July 2024 increased to 2.7%. Core CPI in Tokyo rose by 2.4% in August 2024 Japan's industrial production grew by 2.8% in July 2024, rebounding from a significant decline USDJPY forecast for 30 August 2024: 141.60, 139.70, and 137.77 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate was buoyed by recent US GDP and Initial Jobless Claims data, alleviating recession concerns and bolstering the USD. Concurrently, Japan's economic data fuelled expectations of a potential BoJ interest rate hike, which could strengthen the yen within today's USDJPY forecast. Japan's unemployment rate increased to 2.7% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June, marking the highest level since August 2023. Tokyo's core consumer price index rose at an annualised rate of 2.4% in August 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration and surpassing market expectations of a 2.2% increase. Retail sales in Japan grew at an annualised rate of 2.6% in July 2024, slowing from June's 3.8% rise and falling short of the anticipated 2.9% growth. Japan's industrial production expanded by 2.8% in July 2024, recovering from a sharp -4.2% decline. However, this growth fell short of the forecasted 3.3% (according to preliminary data). RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited August 30 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 (edited) EURUSD: the euro attempts to regain ground on US Labor Day The eurozone’s PMI and the US holiday may not weaken the US dollar. Find out more in our EURUSD forecast dated 2 September 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points Today is US Labor Day The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for August: previously at 45.6, projected at 45.6 EURUSD forecast for 2 September 2024: 1.1005 and 1.1096 Fundamental analysis Today is a holiday in the US due to Labor Day, which may give the euro a chance to strengthen against the US dollar, as many US traders are unlikely to participate in trading. The PMI index evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. This index reflects the state of the industry and the dynamics of industrial processes in the eurozone. Traders closely follow this data as purchasing managers are the first to receive information about their companies’ operations, making the PMI a crucial measure of the general economic situation. Readings above 50.0 points indicate industrial growth, while values below 50.0 points suggest a downturn. EURUSD analysis for 2 September 2024 shows that the PMI index may remain flat at 45.6, indicating some stability in the industrial sector. However, as it is still below 50.0 points, it is unlikely to impact the EURUSD rate positively. Investors await a decision on the Federal Reserve interest rates, due on 18 September 2024. US inflation data remains stable; analysts suggest a 50-basis-point change is unlikely at this stage. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 2 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 3 Author Share Posted September 3 (edited) USDCHF: the US dollar awaits a chance to strengthen The release of Switzerland’s CPI and GDP data and the US PMI data may help the US dollar strengthen its position. Find out more in our analysis dated 3 September 2024. USDCHF forecast: key trading points Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) for August: previously at -0.2%, projected at 0.1% Switzerland’s GDP (q/q): previously at 0.5%, projected at 0.5% US manufacturing PMI: previously at 49.6, projected at 48.0 USDCHF forecast for 3 September 2024: 0.8572 Fundamental analysis The Consumer Price Index reflects the dynamics of consumer prices for goods and services. Investors view a higher-than-expected reading as a positive factor for economic health, while a weaker-than-expected reading is considered negative. For August, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) is projected to return to positive territory. The previous reading was -0.2%, while a forecast for 3 September 2024 is optimistic, suggesting 0.1%. A stronger-than-expected actual CPI reading may strengthen the Swiss franc. GDP reflects the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country (only end products are considered, excluding the costs of raw materials). Switzerland releases quarterly GDP changes in percentage terms, demonstrating the economy’s comprehensive dynamics. Analysis for 3 September 2024 suggests that the GDP reading may remain flat at 0.5%, and the actual figure will show whether expectations are realised. An increase in the indicator may help strengthen the Swiss franc against the US dollar, while a decrease in GDP will drive further growth in the USDCHF rate. The US manufacturing PMI evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector, reflecting the state and the dynamics of industrial processes. According to a preliminary estimate, the index is expected to decrease to 48.0 points. Given that figures have been decreasing for the past several months, the actual reading in the current period may be equal to or below the projected value. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 3 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 (edited) Gold (XAUUSD) is under pressure but holds above the crucial support level XAUUSD price fell below 2,500 USD on Tuesday but stayed above the significant 2,470-2,480 USD support area. The market will focus on US employment data on Thursday and Friday. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 4 September 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants await US employment statistics at the end of the week Current trend: although gold is trading within an uptrend, there are risks of a downward correction XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes are trading within an uptrend, supported by the beginning of US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing. However, gold has yet to reach the all-time high of 2,532 USD, as it encounters active selling pressure near this level. The US employment market statistics due Thursday and Friday may influence future asset movements. Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will publish employment data on Thursday, while nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released on Friday. A decline in employment could weaken the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, job growth could support the US dollar and push XAUUSD into a downward correction. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 4 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 5 Author Share Posted September 5 (edited) USDJPY heads down: demand for the yen has risen significantly The USDJPY pair is losing ground. The market favours the yen as a safe-haven asset. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY pair fell to a two-month low Japan’s robust domestic statistics and weak US reports are supporting the yen USDJPY forecast for 5 September 2024: 141.46 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate halted its decline near the 143.69 level. The pair is hovering near a two-month low after an active two-day sell-off. The yen’s strength is now based on the latest statistics from Japan. Data showed that real wages in the country rose in July for the second consecutive month, adding 0.4% y/y. Overall cash earnings increased by 3.6%. This aligns with the Bank of Japan’s forecast for moderate economic growth rates. Additionally, such data supports expectations of wage increases, which will lead to higher overall inflation. In addition to domestic statistics, the yen benefitted from growing market demand for safe-haven assets following the release of relatively weak US statistics. The figures reminded investors of a potential recession in the US economy, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The USDJPY forecast suggests local growth in the yen. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 5 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 (edited) EURUSD rose: the market awaits US employment market statistics Supported by expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy, the EURUSD pair returned above 1.1100, rising for the third consecutive session. Find out more in our analysis for 6 September 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points The EURUSD pair has resumed steady growth Today, investors are awaiting the crucial US employment sector releases for August EURUSD forecast for 6 September 2024: 1.1133, 1.1026, and 1.0985 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1115. The first release of US employment market data for August surprised the market yesterday. ADP private sector jobs increased by only 99,000, missing the forecast of 144,000 and falling short of the previous increase of 122,000. While there is no direct correlation between these figures and nonfarm payrolls, the sentiment is clear: the employment market is losing jobs. This may prompt the US Federal Reserve to act even more swiftly than planned. In this context, today’s statistics are crucial, with the US unemployment rate report for August scheduled for release this evening. The main forecast suggests a decrease to 4.2% from 4.3%. Nonfarm payrolls could expand by 164,000 following previous growth of 114,000. However, statistics may bring surprises. The EURUSD forecast suggests an increase in volatility later this afternoon. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 6 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 (edited) Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a sideways range; the market awaits US inflation statistics The XAUUSD price has been trading in a sideways range for three weeks; the direction of the price movement out of the range may determine the future trend. The market will focus on US inflation data this week. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 9 September 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting US inflation statistics this week Current trend: gold is consolidating within a sideways range XAUUSD forecast for 9 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470 Fundamental analysis Friday’s US employment market statistics aligned with the forecasts, with nonfarm payrolls showing growth of 142,000 and the unemployment rate declining to 4.2%. US stock indices responded to this data with a fall, and gold also corrected downwards from its annual high of 2,532 USD to 2,500 USD. Market participants will focus on US inflation statistics this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release. A decline in inflation will exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a rise in inflation will support the US dollar, potentially causing XAUUSD quotes to fall. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 9 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted September 10 Author Share Posted September 10 (edited) USDJPY remains flat: the market is awaiting signals The USDJPY pair has halted its rise and is consolidating. Investors have a busy week ahead. Find out more in our analysis for 10 September 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY halted its ascent The market is still betting on a decisive monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan USDJPY forecast for 10 September 2024: 139.70 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate is hovering around 143.25 on Tuesday. Last week’s gains for the yen appear to be offset, with the US dollar regaining ground ahead of the release of crucial inflation statistics this week. The JPY rate rose by more than 3.00% over the past week, with the USDJPY pair falling to annual lows. This became possible due to expectations of future decisive steps by the Bank of Japan. In making a decision to raise interest rates before the end of the year, the BoJ could be supported by the continued growth of wages in the country and persistent inflationary pressure. It became known a little earlier that the Japanese economic growth rate slowed in Q2. The country’s GDP grew by 2.90% year-over-year, falling short of the preliminary estimate of 3.10%. The USDJPY forecast is still neutral. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited September 10 by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Wednesday at 10:32 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:32 AM (edited) USDCAD: the US dollar continues to strengthen The US consumer price index at last year’s level and the rest of the fundamental data package may further drive the USDCAD pair. Discover more in our analysis for 11 September 2024. USDCAD forecast: key trading points The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index in Canada (PCSI): previously at 50.06 The US consumer price index (m/m) for August: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2% The US consumer price index (y/y) for August: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.5% USDCAD forecast for 11 September 2024: 1.3700 Fundamental analysis The primary consumer sentiment index is calculated by Thomson Reuters/Ipsos and measures consumer sentiment based on a target group survey. The index increased to 50.06 last month, indicating positive consumer sentiment. The forecast for 11 September 2024 may be disappointing for the Canadian dollar, with the USDCAD rate continuing its ascent after a correction. The expected fundamental news for the USDCAD pair may be called neutral. According to analytical forecasts, almost all data may be released in line with expectations or with minor deviations. There is a package of US news, including year-over-year and month-over-month consumer price indices for August. They reflect changes in consumer goods and services prices and are key indicators for the direction of purchases and US inflation. Readings below the forecast are considered negative for the US dollar, while those above are considered positive. The forecast suggests that the CPI index may remain flat at 0.2% month-over-month and slightly decrease to 2.5% year-over-year. Expectations that the estimates will align with actual data are so far low. An increase in indicators may further boost the USDCAD pair. Despite the news, the USDCAD forecast for 11 September 2024 appears positive for the US dollar as it may strengthen its position against the Canadian dollar. Actual data aligning with the forecast may also drive growth in the pair. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited Wednesday at 10:33 AM by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM (edited) EURUSD: rising US core inflation has almost ruled out a 50-basis-point Fed interest rate cut The EURUSD rate is slightly correcting following a decline caused by a rise in US inflation. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points US core inflation unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in August from July, marking the highest reading in four months The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next meeting is virtually ruled out, while the odds of a 25-basis-point cut (market expectations) are 87% The European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may fall to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening EURUSD forecast for 12 September 2024: 1.0986 and 1.0950 Fundamental analysis US core inflation unexpectedly rose in August, driven by increased housing and travel prices. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from July, marking the highest reading over the past four months. Headline inflation ran at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. This unexpected rise in inflation may prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates aggressively despite signs of a slowing employment market. The current inflation data changed market expectations, pushing the EURUSD rate slightly down. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting is now virtually ruled out. Instead, expectations of a 25-basis-point cut are estimated at 87%, while the odds of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction have dropped to 13%. The market has already priced everything in, although analysts had expected to get clarity on interest rate issues only by Friday. At the same time, the European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today. This decision is due to the fact that inflation in the eurozone eased to 2.2% in August, wage growth slowed, and the GDP Q2 growth forecast was revised to 0.2%. According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may decline to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening in response to the weakening economy. The current ECB meeting may directly impact today’s EURUSD forecast and become a significant catalyst for the currency market, showing that the regulator can cut rates faster than currently expected. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited Thursday at 10:25 AM by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Friday at 11:00 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:00 AM (edited) USDJPY at annual lows: this is not the end yet The USDJPY pair continues to fall. The Japanese yen has risen to new highs. Find out more in our analysis for 13 September 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY pair declines rapidly The yen receives support from the Bank of Japan’s hawkish statements USDJPY forecast for 13 September 2024: 139.70 and 137.77 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate fell to 140.99 on Friday, marking another annual low. This became possible due to the hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan member. Yesterday, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Naoki Tamura said that the regulator should raise short-term interest rates to 1.00% by fiscal 2026 to reach the inflation target of 2.00%. This is not the only strong statement in recent days. Junko Nakagawa has previously noted that the Bank of Japan is ready to hike interest rates further. This will be relevant if the economy and inflation align with forecasts. Rating agency Fitch revised its interest rate expectations. The borrowing cost is now projected at 0.50% by the end of 2024, 0.75% by the end of 2025, and 1.00% by the end of 2026. The yen has benefited from the global weakening of the US dollar. The USDJPY forecast suggests further sell-offs in the pair. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited Friday at 11:01 AM by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago (edited) GBPUSD continues to rise following a correction Improving UK house price index and US manufacturing index figures support the British pound. Discover more in our analysis for 16 September 2024. GBPUSD forecast: key trading points The Rightmove UK house price index (y/y): previously at -1.5%, currently at 0.8% NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (US): previously at -4.7 points, currently at -4.1 GBPUSD forecast for 16 September 2024: 1.3177 and 1.3199 Fundamental analysis A monthly change in the Rightmove UK year-over-year house price index was published on Monday, 16 September 2024. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed. Figures above the forecast and previous data are a positive factor for the British pound. A weaker-than-expected reading reflects negative developments. The previous statistics came out below forecasts, while the current reading has now shifted to positive territory, reaching 0.8% and propelling the GBPUSD rate. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the development of the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is calculated based on a survey of 200 largest manufacturing enterprises. A reading above zero points to increased manufacturing activity, while the one below zero indicates a decline. Stronger-than-expected data may provide significant support to the US dollar. The forecast for 16 September 2024 suggests that the reading will remain in negative territory at -4.1, which is still negative for the US dollar. Fundamental analysis for 16 September 2024 does not provide arguments in favour of the US currency, so the pound sterling has every chance to continue its upward momentum after the correction. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited 8 hours ago by RBFX Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now