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Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex


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EURUSD: the pair is recovering after the fall

The EURUSD rate returned to 1.0350 as part of a correction after declining at the market opening on Monday. This week, market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics. Find out more in our analysis for 4 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics this week, including ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate
  • Current trend: a downtrend
  • EURUSD forecast for 4 February 2025: 1.0350 and 1.0200

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair recovered slightly after the fall caused by the introduction of US restrictive tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors are concerned about the continuation of trade wars, which may also affect the eurozone. US President Donald Trump earlier promised to consider imposing tariffs on European goods.

This week, the market will focus on US employment statistics, with ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate scheduled for release. Stronger-than-expected data will support the US dollar, potentially pushing the EURUSD pair lower. Conversely, weaker data could drive growth in the euro.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to soar to new price highs

The increase in US nonfarm employment does not strengthen the US dollar significantly, with Gold prices continuing their ascent to 2,880 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 5 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 122 thousand, projected at 148 thousand
  • The US services PMI: previously at 56.8, projected at 52.8
  • Current trend: moving upwards
  • XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025: 2,830 and 2,880

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices have broken above the 2,850 USD level, with the pair likely to continue its upward momentum.

The US nonfarm employment change is a national employment report from ADP, which tracks changes in nonfarm jobs based on data from about 400 thousand business sources. The report is published two days before official US employment data. The reading is currently projected at 148 thousand. If the actual data aligns with expectations, the market may see increased volatility. Conversely, worse-than-forecast data may weaken the USD against Gold.

The US services PMI is expected to decline to 52.8. A stronger-than-expected PMI reading will provide some support to the US dollar.

The XAUUSD price forecast appears rather optimistic as the quotes have the potential to reach 2,880 USD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of a BoJ rate hike

The USDJPY rate is declining for the fourth consecutive trading session, with the price currently at 152.44. Discover more in our analysis for 6 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • Expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike are rising
  • Data showed Tokyo wages rose by 0.6% in December
  • Japan’s nominal wages reached the highest level in nearly 30 years
  • USDJPY forecast for 6 February 2025: 150.75 and 149.40

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to an eight-week low amid expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato said that inflation could rise further, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening and driving the current decline in the currency pair.

Additionally, the latest data showed strong wage growth, with Tokyo’s figures rising for the second consecutive month, up 0.6% in December, while analysts expected a 0.7% decline. Nominal wage growth hit the highest level in nearly 30 years, adding to inflationary pressures.

These factors strengthen expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates in 2025. The increasing contrast with the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of two rate cuts before the end of the year may support the yen’s strength as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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Gold (XAUUSD) rises ahead of crucial US labour market data

XAUUSD prices are rising after rebounding from the support level, with the quotes currently at 2,863 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 7 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • XAUUSD quotes are rising for the sixth consecutive week amid increased demand for Gold
  • Increased buying is driven by concerns caused by trade uncertainty and the release of the US employment report
  • XAUUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 2,885 and 2,915

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have been rising for the sixth consecutive week as demand for Gold has increased amid the current trade uncertainty. Investors are actively buying up the precious metal ahead of the crucial US employment report. According to traders, Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards, expecting sustainable growth amid US political hyperactivity and massive hedging by global central banks and investors.

Markets are now focused on the US employment data, which may provide insight into the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. An economy with full employment, steady growth, and easing inflation will allow the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Markets expect the regulator to lower the rate by another 100 basis points in the process. This will inevitably lead to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a cheaper cost of owning Gold.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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