Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[CryptoLite]

Interesting read on Tokyo’s CPI softer inflation definitely eases pressure on the BoJ to tighten, which in turn gives indices like JP225 some breathing room. A weaker yen also plays into the hands of exporters, so the outlook for Japanese equities feels supported.

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[RBFX Support]

AUDUSD consolidates around 0.6600

The AUDUSD rate settled around the 0.6600 level amid ongoing uncertainty over US government funding. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US Department of Labor postponed the release of unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls statistics
• Current trend: range-bound trading
• AUDUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 0.6577 or 0.6630

Fundamental analysis

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, while President Donald Trump threatened mass federal worker layoffs to pressure Democrats.

The shutdown has also delayed key economic data as the Department of Labor postponed Friday’s release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia after policymakers warned of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut at the 4 November meeting, compared to nearly 100% odds priced in a month ago.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited Friday at 09:56 AM by RBFX Support

[RBFX Support]

EURUSD on pause: everyone is waiting for US news

The EURUSD pair has settled within the 1.1727 range. The market is conserving energy while awaiting news on the US government shutdown. Discover more in our analysis for 6 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is consolidating sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown
• With no fresh headlines, investors are watching secondary data releases
• EURUSD forecast for 6 October 2025: 1.1660 or 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains neutral around 1.1727 amid concerns over the consequences of the prolonged US government shutdown. Congress once again failed to agree on a temporary budget, leading to the suspension of several federal programs and the delay of key macroeconomic reports, including the September Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the monetary front, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points. Recent data have strengthened expectations that the Fed will maintain its policy easing trajectory.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited yesterday at 01:55 PM by RBFX Support

[RBFX Support]

US 500 forecast: the index hit new all-time high

The US 500 index continued to reach new all-time highs within the ongoing uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US ISM services prices for September came in at 69.4
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing prices index for October 2025 reached 69.4, slightly above the forecast of 68.0 and only marginally higher than the previous reading of 69.2. Rising prices in the non-manufacturing sector indicate persistent inflationary pressure in the services industry, the key segment of the US economy. For market participants, this is a signal that inflationary processes remain stable despite the gradual cooling of the manufacturing sector. Such dynamics may strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated. As a result, investors may act cautiously, particularly towards companies sensitive to changes in borrowing costs.

For the US 500, the released data could have a moderately negative impact. Elevated prices in the services sector reduce the likelihood of an imminent monetary policy easing, which could limit short-term growth of the index. However, since the figure only slightly exceeded expectations, the market reaction is likely to remain balanced.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited 2 hours ago by RBFX Support