Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RBFX Support]

JP 225 forecast: index corrects after hitting new all-time high

The JP 225 index is undergoing a correction, although the broader uptrend remains intact. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.5% year-on-year
• Market impact: the impact on the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index stood at 2.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 2.8% and unchanged from the prior month. This shows that inflationary pressure in Japan’s largest metropolitan area remains stable and softer than expected. For equity markets, this reduces the likelihood of accelerated monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. The case for aggressive tightening has weakened, which supports valuations for assets sensitive to discount rates.

For the JP 225 index, the overall impact is moderately positive. Softer inflation lowers the risk of sharp rises in yields and capital costs. On the currency side, this increases the likelihood of a weaker yen, which improves overseas revenue conversion for exporters and supports their stock performance, creating a positive ripple across the index.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited 23 hours ago by RBFX Support

[CryptoLite]

Interesting read on Tokyo’s CPI softer inflation definitely eases pressure on the BoJ to tighten, which in turn gives indices like JP225 some breathing room. A weaker yen also plays into the hands of exporters, so the outlook for Japanese equities feels supported.

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[RBFX Support]

AUDUSD consolidates around 0.6600

The AUDUSD rate settled around the 0.6600 level amid ongoing uncertainty over US government funding. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US Department of Labor postponed the release of unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls statistics
• Current trend: range-bound trading
• AUDUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 0.6577 or 0.6630

Fundamental analysis

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, while President Donald Trump threatened mass federal worker layoffs to pressure Democrats.

The shutdown has also delayed key economic data as the Department of Labor postponed Friday’s release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia after policymakers warned of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut at the 4 November meeting, compared to nearly 100% odds priced in a month ago.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited 1 hour ago by RBFX Support