Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.13.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair is poised for volatility due to several key economic releases today. For the British Pound (GBP), the RICS Housing Price Balance report could influence market sentiment as it serves as an early indicator of housing inflation trends. Additionally, upcoming GDP, Construction Output, Trade Balance, and Industrial Production reports in the following days will further shape market expectations regarding the UK economy.
On the US Dollar (USD) side, a press conference by US President Donald Trump and a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller about stablecoins could introduce significant market movement. Additionally, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is scheduled, serving as a leading indicator of inflation. The combination of UK economic reports and US policy discussions may drive volatility in the GBPUSD pair, making price action highly reactive to today’s scheduled events.


Price Action:
On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the price has been fluctuating between Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish pressure. Recently, a bullish recovery has been observed as the GBP/USD price approaches a key resistance level. The market sentiment suggests buyers are attempting to push the price higher, though a strong breakout is required to confirm further upside momentum. Candlestick formations suggest increased volatility, with recent wicks showing both buying and selling pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price recently touched the upper Bollinger Band and pulled back slightly, suggesting resistance at this level. Currently, the price is once again moving closer to the upper band, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum. If the GBP USD price breaks above the band with high volume, it could signal an expansion in volatility and further upside movement.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots (aqua-colored) are positioned below the candles, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. The consecutive SAR dots below price action provide confirmation that buyers are in control. However, if the dots shift above the GBP-USD price, it may signal a reversal or a period of consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting continued upward pressure. However, the momentum appears moderate, meaning traders should monitor for any signs of divergence or a bearish crossover that could indicate a potential reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.2340, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong demand zone.
Resistance: The key resistance level is at 1.2490, where the price has faced rejection multiple times. A breakout above this level could open the door for further upside movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD H4 analysis suggests bullish momentum, supported by Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD indicators. However, resistance at 1.2490 remains a key hurdle for further price appreciation. With important UK and US economic data releases today, traders should expect increased volatility. A break above resistance could confirm further bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback towards key support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.13.2025
 

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.17.2025



Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

 

Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing potential volatility due to USD-related events. The U.S. market will have low liquidity today as banks remain closed for Presidents' Day, which typically results in irregular volatility as institutional traders step aside, leaving room for speculative price swings. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman could provide insights into future U.S. monetary policy. A hawkish stance may strengthen the USD, adding bearish pressure on BTC USD, while a dovish tone could support risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders should remain cautious as thin liquidity can lead to unexpected price spikes or rapid moves in either direction.

 

Price Action:
BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bearish move after facing resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a sharp decline that has already broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The price has moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the middle band and is now trending downward toward the lower band, signaling increased bearish pressure. If the price fails to hold above key support levels, further downside movement toward the lower Bollinger Band and the next Fibonacci support zones is likely.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicate that BTCUSD has moved downward from the upper band toward the middle band and is now attempting to break lower. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing, with a potential test of the lower Bollinger Band in the coming sessions. A confirmed break below the lower band could signal further bearish continuation, while a bounce from this area might indicate temporary consolidation before the next move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is showing strong bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming a downside bias. The increasing separation between the MACD and signal lines suggests that selling pressure is still dominant. If the bearish momentum continues to grow, Bitcoin may extend losses toward key support levels. However, a weakening histogram could indicate that the downside move is slowing, signaling possible consolidation or reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.76, reflecting bearish sentiment but not yet reaching oversold conditions. This indicates that BTC/USD still has room to move lower before a potential reversal. If the RSI drops below 30, it would signal an oversold scenario, potentially triggering a short-term price correction. Until then, the bearish outlook remains intact, with a downward trend likely to persist in the near term.

 

Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is at $94,877, with a stronger support zone at $94,177, aligning with previous key price action areas.
Resistance: The immediate resistance level is at $97,183, with the next major resistance at $98,866, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

 

Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart is currently in a bearish phase, as indicated by the break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, declining MACD momentum, and RSI trending lower. The price movement from the upper Bollinger Band toward the lower band confirms the increasing selling pressure, with a high probability of further downside unless key support levels hold. With low liquidity due to the U.S. bank holiday, traders should be prepared for irregular volatility and possible sharp movements. Additionally, the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials could provide unexpected market catalysts, influencing Bitcoin’s price action in correlation with USD movements. Caution is advised, and traders should employ proper risk management strategies while monitoring key levels for potential trade setups.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.17.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.19.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair is currently influenced by several key fundamental factors. The US Dollar's strength remains in focus as traders await the latest Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the US Census Bureau, which serve as leading indicators for economic activity and construction demand. A stronger-than-expected release could support the USD and apply downward pressure on AUD/USD. Meanwhile, Australia’s economic outlook is shaped by the Melbourne Institute Leading Index and the Wage Price Index, which provide insight into economic growth and inflation trends. If these indicators reflect economic resilience, the AUD could find support. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s testimony, as any hawkish tone on interest rates could impact risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, AUD-USD has been in an uptrend following a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the ascending trendline support. The price has reached a key resistance level and is now undergoing a correction. This pullback could extend to Zone 1, where buyers may re-enter the market before the next upward move. The presence of higher highs and higher lows suggests that the overall trend remains bullish unless there is a confirmed break below key support.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 57.17, showing a possible divergence. This suggests a weakening bullish momentum, although it has not yet entered overbought conditions. A drop below 50 could indicate further downside correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, and the signal line is showing signs of a potential bearish crossover. This indicates that while the bullish trend is still intact, buying momentum is decreasing, and further correction could be expected before a continuation of the uptrend.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is currently at 38.17, pointing downward. This suggests that the price could continue to correct in the short term before finding renewed buying interest at key support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6280, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending trendline and a key demand zone. Another support level is found at 0.6350, marking a previous breakout zone and price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6370, where the price is currently consolidating. If bullish momentum persists, the next major resistance level is at 0.6400, which coincides with recent highs and an important psychological barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 chart continues to maintain its bullish structure but faces a short-term correction phase. Traders should monitor Zone 1 for potential bullish re-entry opportunities. A break below 0.6350 could trigger further downside movement, while a breakout above 0.6370 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Given upcoming economic releases, volatility is expected. Traders should watch for USD strength or weakness following the US Building Permits and Housing Starts data, as well as Australian economic reports that may influence the AUD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUDUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUD/USD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.19.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.20.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near all-time highs as global market sentiment remains cautious. Today, several high-impact USD news events could influence gold prices. US President Donald Trump’s speech at the FII Priority Summit in Miami may provide insights into economic policies that could impact the dollar’s strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson's speech on household balance sheets and initial jobless claims data will shape expectations for future interest rate decisions. If the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish tone, gold could face downward pressure due to a stronger USD. Conversely, weaker jobless claims or a dovish Fed stance could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Traders should also monitor the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, which may offer clues about US economic conditions, further impacting gold's direction.


Price Action:
The GOLDUSD H4 chart exhibits a strong bullish trend, with prices moving within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. Despite minor retracements, the price remains within an upward structure, suggesting ongoing buyer dominance. A key observation is that the recent pullback has been shallow, indicating that bulls still control the market. If the price sustains above the middle Bollinger Band, further upside movement is likely. However, a breakdown below this level may trigger a deeper correction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is currently moving between the middle and upper bands, attempting to reach the upper band again. The overall trend remains bullish, with gold maintaining its strength after breaking multiple all-time highs (ATHs) in recent months.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering near 59, suggesting that the market remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought. This indicates that there is still room for further price appreciation before reaching extreme levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is expanding, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line. This suggests increasing bullish momentum, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, traders should watch for potential divergence, which could indicate a slowdown in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is currently around 42-44, moving out of the oversold region. If the %K line crosses above the %D line, it could confirm a bullish continuation, supporting a move toward higher resistance levels.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The first key support level is at $2,920, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent price consolidation area. A break below this level could see further downside toward $2,880.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at $2,950, which represents the recent high and upper Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could lead to further gains toward $2,970 and beyond.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by bullish technical indicators and fundamental factors. With key USD news events today, traders should expect high volatility in the gold market. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, gold could face some selling pressure due to a stronger USD. However, if economic concerns arise or jobless claims come in weaker than expected, gold may continue its bullish rally. Traders should closely monitor XAUUSD’s price action around the $2,920 support and $2,950 resistance levels for potential breakouts or pullbacks.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.20.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURNZD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.24.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURNZD pair is experiencing market volatility as traders react to key economic data from both the Eurozone and New Zealand. The IFO Business Climate Index from Germany, a leading indicator of economic sentiment, is expected to provide insights into the strength of the European economy. A better-than-expected reading could boost the Euro (EUR), while a weaker-than-expected outcome may pressure the currency. Additionally, the upcoming Core CPI and CPI reports from the Eurozone will significantly impact inflation expectations and influence the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
On the New Zealand dollar (NZD) side, recent Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales reports reflect consumer spending trends. Since these are lagging indicators, their impact may be limited unless there is a significant deviation from expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to monitor inflationary pressures, and upcoming credit card spending data will provide further clues on consumer activity. If the data signals a robust retail environment, the NZD may gain strength.


Price Action:
The EURNZD pair has been in a downward channel since reaching a peak in mid-February. However, the last four candles have been bullish, indicating a potential short-term reversal or correction. The price has swiftly moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, breaking through the middle band in a single strong bullish move. Additionally, the EUR NZD price is currently testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as a key decision point for traders. If buyers maintain momentum, the next resistance level could be challenged. Conversely, if selling pressure resumes, the downtrend may continue.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EURNZD price has moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, signaling increased volatility and a potential breakout from the bearish channel. Despite the overall downtrend, this sudden price spike suggests that bulls are regaining some control. If the price holds above the middle band, further bullish movement could be expected.
Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch 5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator is currently near the 75-80 zone, indicating that momentum has shifted towards the bulls. This suggests that the EUR/NZD pair might enter overbought territory soon. However, if the %K and %D lines cross downwards from these levels, a potential pullback may occur.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO histogram has transitioned from deep red to light blue, indicating weakening bearish momentum. While the histogram remains negative, the current trend suggests that bullish pressure is increasing. If the AO crosses above the zero line, it would confirm a stronger upside move.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.8180, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and recent lows. If the EURNZD price breaks below this level, further downside movement could follow.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.8290, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A successful breakout above this level could lead to a test of 1.8330 (61.8% Fibonacci level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURNZD H4 chart analysis suggests a potential short-term bullish correction within a broader downtrend channel. The recent bullish momentum, reflected in Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillator, and AO, highlights a possible upside continuation if resistance levels are broken. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish unless a significant breakout occurs. Key fundamental factors, including IFO Business Climate Index, CPI data from the Eurozone, and New Zealand’s retail sales, could drive volatility in the EUR-NZD pair. Traders should closely monitor these reports, as unexpected economic data could shift market sentiment rapidly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/NZD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURNZD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.24.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.25.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is expected to experience volatility today due to multiple speeches from Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak on economic conditions, potentially providing insights into future monetary policy. If their tone is hawkish, the USD could strengthen, putting upward pressure on the USD-JPY pair. Additionally, key US data, including housing prices and consumer confidence figures, could influence market sentiment. On the Japanese Yen side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has released the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI), an important inflation indicator. Stronger-than-expected data may lead to JPY appreciation, reinforcing the bearish trend in USD vs JPY. However, if the data is weak, expectations of continued BoJ dovish policy could weaken the yen. Traders should remain cautious as market volatility is likely to increase throughout the session.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair continues to trade within a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing a key support zone at 149.300 - 148.800, which has historically provided significant buying interest. The recent price action suggests an attempt at a bounce, but Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800) is capping the upside. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1, further downside pressure could push the pair below 148.800, confirming a continuation of the bearish trend. However, if buyers gain control and break through Resistance Line 1, the next key level to watch is Resistance Line 2 (152.800), which aligns with the long-term descending trendline. Should the price successfully breach both resistance levels, upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 153.800. Until a confirmed breakout occurs, the trend remains bearish.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots are below the price, signaling a potential shift in momentum toward the upside. However, a break above Resistance Line 1 is necessary to confirm a reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 39.93, indicating that the pair remains in bearish territory. Although it is not yet oversold, a move above 50 would suggest a weakening downtrend and potential bullish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains negative, and the MACD line is below the signal line, confirming that bearish momentum is still in play. A bullish crossover is needed for signs of trend reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is at 81.27, placing it in the overbought zone. This suggests that the recent price bounce may be short-lived and that further selling pressure could emerge. A bearish crossover would reinforce the downtrend.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 149.300 - 148.800, which represents a significant historical level. If this zone fails to hold, the next key support is 148.315, potentially triggering further downside movement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 150.500 - 150.800 (Resistance Line 1), a key short-term barrier. A break above this level would indicate bullish momentum. The next major resistance is at 152.800 (Resistance Line 2), which must be breached for a full trend reversal. Additional upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 53.800.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY pair remains in a strong downtrend, currently testing a crucial support zone at 149.300 - 148.800. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800), the bearish trend is likely to continue, potentially pushing the price below 148.800. However, if buyers manage to break above Resistance Line 1, a short-term recovery could be in play, with the next major test at Resistance Line 2 (152.800). With multiple FOMC speeches and key US economic releases scheduled today, traders should prepare for potential market volatility. A hawkish Fed stance could strengthen the USD, while strong JPY fundamentals could keep the pair under selling pressure. Monitoring RSI, MACD, and support/resistance levels will be crucial for confirming the next move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.25.2025