Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.13.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis: 
Today's GBPUSD analysis takes into account crucial economic events for both currencies. For GBP, significant indicators including RICS House Price Balance and GDP data from the Office for National Statistics will influence market sentiment. Positive results, exceeding forecasts, will likely bolster the British Pound, reflecting an improvement in economic health. Conversely, the USD is set to experience volatility with speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Susan Collins and Mary Daly, whose insights on monetary policy and economic outlook will significantly impact USD strength.

Price Action: 
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 chart is entrenched in a bearish trend, punctuated by several short-term bullish corrections. Price action recently completed a corrective upswing, encountering resistance from the Ichimoku Cloud. The Fibonacci expansion clearly suggests potential bearish continuation with an immediate target at the 23.6% level. A breach of this level could open the path towards deeper bearish targets.

Key Technical Indicators: 
William's %R: The William's %R indicator currently stands at -65.73, signaling a neutral-to-bearish momentum. The indicator remains far from oversold territory, leaving room for further downward pressure in GBPUSD prices on the H4 timeframe.
Stochastic: Stochastic values of 64.04 and 47.25 indicate mild bullish momentum, yet the proximity to a potential crossover suggests a bearish reversal may soon occur. Traders should closely watch for signals of a bearish crossover to confirm downward pressure.
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku indicator shows GBPUSD prices are trading within the cloud region (1.31314, 1.31326, 1.31142, 1.31175), highlighting indecision in the market. However, given the overall bearish bias and the position beneath the cloud resistance, the price action strongly favors bearish continuation.

Support and Resistance: 
Support: Immediate support is identified at the Fibonacci expansion level 23.6, around 1.3090. 
Resistance: Key resistance is currently found at the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud around 1.3132, with stronger resistance at previous highs near 1.3195.

Conclusion and Consideration: 
The H4 GBPUSD analysis illustrates continued bearish dominance, reinforced by the technical indicators and recent corrective price action. Traders should monitor the upcoming GBP and USD economic releases, particularly GDP and Federal Reserve speeches, for volatility triggers. Given the bearish setup, attention should be paid to the Fibonacci expansion level at 23.6% as a critical support. A confirmed breach may extend bearish momentum significantly lower.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
11.13.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.14.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTC/USD pair is influenced today by significant USD news, with Federal Reserve speakers Jeffrey Schmid and Lorie Logan set to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Joint Energy Conference. Hawkish statements typically strengthen the USD, potentially exerting downward pressure on BTC-USD. Additionally, natural gas inventory data could impact the USD volatility further, with lower-than-forecasted inventories usually benefiting USD strength.


Price Action:
BTC/USD analysis on the H4 timeframe clearly shows a descending trend. Bitcoin recently broke below the significant psychological support at $100,000, marking its lowest price since May 2025. The current price has touched and is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong bearish momentum. The last candle sits around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling potential for further bearish movement if this level is decisively broken, though oversold conditions suggest a possible correction soon.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands(20): The bands indicate increasing bearish volatility with BTC-USD consistently moving along the lower band. The middle and lower bands slope downward significantly, while the upper band remains relatively horizontal, emphasizing strong bearish dominance.
%R(14): Currently at -88.83, %R14 highlights a significantly oversold condition. Such low levels typically precede short-term bullish corrections, cautioning traders to watch for potential reversal signals.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Presently at 10.10 and 18.83, the Stochastic indicates that BTC USD is deep in oversold territory. This signals an increased likelihood of a price correction or consolidation phase in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at the lower descending channel boundary near the $96,000 area, closely aligning with the 0 Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at the former key support level of $100,000, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC/USD H4 chart demonstrates sustained bearish momentum, confirmed by key indicators such as Bollinger Bands, %R14, and Stochastic Oscillator. Although the trend remains bearish, the deeply oversold conditions suggest traders should be cautious about potential corrective rebounds. The USD news today could further exacerbate volatility, providing pivotal trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.14.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.17.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD currency pair is positioned ahead of a high-impact day for both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, making this H4 forex forecast especially sensitive to incoming economic data. On the USD side, traders will closely monitor the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of US economic health, as well as speeches from FOMC members John Williams and Philip Jefferson. Any hawkish tone may support the USD through expectations of tighter monetary policy. Additionally, delayed releases from the Census Bureau and Treasury Budget may influence market sentiment as the data backlog clears. For the CAD, a heavy cluster of inflation-related releases—including CPI, CPI Median, CPI Trim, and CPI Ex Volatile Items—will play a key role. Stronger-than-forecast Canadian inflation typically strengthens the CAD due to higher rate expectations from the Bank of Canada, increasing volatility in the USDCAD H4 chart around release times.


Price Action:
The USD-CAD price action on the H4 timeframe continues to respect a well-defined ascending bullish channel, with price oscillating between the lower and upper trend boundaries. Recent candles show consolidation around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which aligns closely with the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The price has recently moved from the lower Bollinger Band back toward the middle and upper half of the channel, indicating stabilizing bullish momentum after a corrective phase. Despite the consolidation, the broader trend structure remains upward, but traders should watch for a clean breakout from the 50% Fibonacci zone to confirm continuation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: USD/CAD is trading between the middle and upper Bands, showing mild bullish pressure. The middle Band aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level, acting as key dynamic support. Price recovery from the lower Band suggests stabilizing bullish momentum.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD values at -0.000280 / -0.000604 reflect weak bearish momentum. The histogram is contracting, signaling a possible momentum shift. A bullish crossover would confirm renewed upside strength.
RSI (28): The RSI at 48.38 indicates neutral momentum. It supports the current consolidation near the 50% Fibonacci level. There is room for movement in either direction without overbought or oversold pressure.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Key support is located at the 1.3980–1.3990 zone, aligning with the lower region of the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci cluster and the bullish channel’s mid-line.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands near 1.4065–1.4080, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and upper channel reaction zones.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 technical outlook remains bullish overall, but the price is currently consolidating around the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement and middle Bollinger Band. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum with potential for bullish continuation if resistance zones break. However, given today’s heavy US and Canadian fundamental calendar, volatility spikes are expected, especially around CPI releases and FOMC member remarks. Traders should manage positions cautiously, as fundamentals may override short-term technical setups.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.17.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.18.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently under moderate bearish pressure against the US Dollar (USD), with market participants closely watching macroeconomic developments and central bank commentary. On the USD side, today's economic calendar is packed with high-impact events, including multiple speeches from key Federal Reserve officials such as Governor Waller, Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin, and even US President Donald Trump. These speeches are expected to offer fresh clues about future monetary policy, inflation outlooks, and regulatory considerations—potentially increasing USD volatility. Meanwhile, no major Australian data is due today, leaving the AUD vulnerable to external pressures. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on December 23, with traders already speculating on potential tightening or dovish hold scenarios.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD H4 price action shows a clear bearish structure. The pair continues to respect a long-term descending trendline and recently failed to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, instead reversing and falling below the 23.6% level. The latest candles are predominantly red and hugging the lower Bollinger Band, indicating consistent downward pressure. Recent price rejection at both the descending trendline and the 50-period EMA further confirms short-term bearish bias.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are moderately wide, reflecting increased volatility in the AUD/USD H4 chart analysis. The price is currently hugging the lower band and closing below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting strong bearish momentum. The continuous lower band interaction supports a trend continuation outlook.
MACD (12,26,9): he MACD line is at -0.000742 while the signal line reads -0.000114, with the histogram pushing further into negative territory. This widening divergence indicates increasing downside momentum. The MACD crossover below the zero line is a classic confirmation of the prevailing bearish trend in this technical and fundamental chart analysis.
RSI (28): The RSI is currently at 42.98, remaining below the neutral 50 level, reinforcing a bearish sentiment without entering oversold conditions. This RSI behavior suggests that the pair has room to move lower before any meaningful bullish correction emerges.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first strong support lies around the 0.6450 level, which aligns with the recent swing low and the 0.0% Fibonacci retracement level, acting as the immediate bearish target.
Resistance: On the upside, key resistance is seen near 0.6560, which is both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the point of confluence with the descending trendline, making it a strong technical ceiling.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Based on the current H4 technical and fundamental analysis of AUD USD, the short- to medium-term bias remains bearish. With the price moving below key Fibonacci levels, respecting a downward trendline, and confirmed by MACD and RSI indicators, sellers appear to be in control. The upcoming USD news, particularly speeches from FOMC members and economic outlook discussions, could inject significant volatility into the pair. Given the lack of Australian data today, the USD side will likely dictate the pair’s next major move. Traders should monitor news headlines closely for any shifts in monetary policy tone from the Fed, which could influence AUD-USD volatility on the H4 time frame.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.18.2025